Covid-19 has had a profound impact on Scotland’s economy, but the cost of the crisis has not been shared evenly. What can we do about it?
About this event
Join us on Tuesday the 24th of August to hear from leading economists and trade unionists about the parts of Scotland’s economy that have prospered during the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential long-term economic impacts, and how trade unions and policymakers can respond.
Speakers will include:
• Laurie Macfarlane, Economics Editor at openDemocracy and Head of Finance at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose. Prior to this Laurie was Senior Economist at the New Economics Foundation.
• Christine Berry, economist, writer, and co-author of ‘People Get Ready! Preparing for a Corbyn Government’. Christine was recently appointed as Director of the thinktank IPPR North.
• Jennifer McCarey, Chair of Glasgow Trades Council.
• Richard Hardy, National Secretary of Prospect, a Commissioner on the Scottish Government’s Just Transition Commission, and sits on the STUC General Council.
TUC calls for permanent short-time working scheme to protect jobs in times of economic crisis and change
TUC says government must build on the success of furlough – and set up a permanent scheme to deal with big disruptions to jobs in the future, like the transition to net zero, future pandemics and technological change
Periods of industrial change have too often been mismanaged and led to increased inequality – a short-time working scheme would help prevent this, says TUC
Union body warns of job losses amid abrupt end to furlough scheme
The TUC is calling on the government to establish a permanent short-time working scheme as “a post pandemic legacy” to help protect working people through periods of future economic change.
The TUC says the furlough scheme, while far from perfect, is one of the major successes of government policy during the pandemic, protecting millions of jobs and livelihoods.
On the back of the success of the furlough scheme, the union body is urging government to build on furlough – “not throw away its good work” – with a permanent short-time working scheme to make the labour market more resilient in times of change and crisis.
The union body adds that because of the UK transition to net zero and the increased uptake of new technology, this is “hugely relevant”.
Case for a short-time working scheme
In a new report, Beyond furlough: why the UK needs a permanent short-time work scheme, the TUC says the case for a short-time working scheme is clear, citing significant benefits for workers, firms and government. The union body says for workers, a short-time working scheme would:
reduce the risk of workers losing their jobs in times of crisis
protect workers’ incomes – particularly as short-time working schemes are usually more generous than unemployment benefits.
prevent widening inequalities – protecting women, disabled workers and BME workers who tend to lose their jobs first in a recession due to structural discrimination
And for the government, it would:
protect against long-term unemployment, and the subsequent devastating impacts on communities
help stabilise the economy, and encourage a faster economic recovery as workers continue to spend their wages
save money, as the cost of furlough schemes is often below the cost of unemployment benefits, particularly where costs are shared with employers.
For employers, the TUC says that such a scheme would produce significant savings on redundancy, training and hiring costs, as they enable firms to keep skilled workers on their books.
The union body points out that the UK is an anomaly among developed nations in having no permanent short-time working scheme to deal with periods of industrial disruption and weak demand.
In the OECD, 23 countries had short-time working schemes in place before the coronavirus pandemic, including in Germany, Japan and many US states.
Turbulent times ahead
The TUC predicts that the UK economy is likely to face significant risks in the future – be it from climate change and the transition to net zero, new technologies such as AI, new variants or another pandemic. All could cause unpredictable and widespread disruption in the labour market – causing big spikes in unemployment and business failure.
The TUC cites failed attempts to manage industrial change in the past, which “left communities abandoned” and played a major role in the widespread regional inequality we see today.
The union body says that if the government is serious about levelling up, it will put in place a permanent short-time working scheme to prevent inequalities spiralling – adding that a short-time working scheme could play a vital role in achieving a ‘just transition’ to net zero.
Criteria for accessing scheme
The TUC says the scheme should be governed by a tripartite panel bringing together unions, business and government, which should be tasked with designing the criteria for the new scheme.
In designing the scheme, the TUC says the panel should take into account best practice from existing global schemes. The union body has set out the following conditions which it says must be in place for accessing a short-time working scheme:
Workers should continue to receive at least 80 per cent of their wages for any time on the scheme, with a guarantee that no-one will fall below the minimum wage for their normal working hours
Any worker working less than 90 per cent of their normal working hours must be offered funded training.
Firms must set out a plan for fair pay and decent jobs
Firms should put in place an agreement with their workers, either through a recognised union or through consultation mechanisms.
Firms must demonstrate a reduction in demand – which can include restructuring
Firms should commit to paying their corporation tax in the UK, and not pay out dividends while using the scheme.
The scheme should ensure full flexibility in working hours.
There should be time limits on the use of the scheme, with extension possible in limited circumstances.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Everyone deserves dignity and security at work. The pandemic shows how an unexpected economic shock can wreak havoc on jobs and livelihoods with little warning.
“In a changing and unpredictable world – as we battle climate change and new technologies emerge – a permanent short-time working scheme would help make our labour market more resilient and protect jobs and livelihoods.
“Too often in the past, periods of economic and industrial change have been badly mismanaged – increasing inequalities and leaving working people and whole communities abandoned.
“Setting up a ‘daughter of furlough’ to provide certainty to workers and firms through future industrial change would be a fitting pandemic legacy.
“Furlough has been a lifeline for millions of working people during the pandemic. Now is the time for the government to build on the success of furlough with a short-time working scheme – not throw away its good work.”
Furlough warning
The call for a permanent short-time working scheme comes exactly six weeks before the furlough scheme is set to end – the date at which employers are legally obliged to start consulting on planned redundancies with their staff.
The TUC is warning the abrupt end to the furlough scheme will cause unnecessary job losses and may harm the country’s economic recovery.
Recently, aviation unions have also been raising concerns about the sudden end to the furlough scheme and the loss of jobs in the sector.
On the ending of the furlough scheme, Frances said: “The jobs market is still fragile, with more than a million people still on furlough.
“An abrupt and premature end to the furlough scheme will needlessly cost jobs and harm our economic recovery.
“Instead of pulling the rug out from under the feet of businesses and workers, the chancellor must extend the furlough scheme for as long as is needed to protect jobs and livelihoods.”
Captain Martin Chalk, Acting General Secretary of BALPA said: “The UK aviation sector is the only industry to remain effectively in a lockdown.
“It employs about one million workers directly and ONS statistics show that 57% of remaining employees in air transport companies remain on furlough.
“The scale of jobs at risk of redundancy when the furlough scheme ends is self-evident, yet the footprint of aviation must not be missed – one in four constituencies has over 1,000 people employed directly by aviation companies.
“If the Chancellor chooses not to extend furlough, the effects will be felt by workers, communities and businesses right across the country.”
Diana Holland, Unite Assistant General Secretary, said: “Aviation is crucial to the UK’s economic recovery. It needs furlough support to continue while Covid restrictions apply.
“Airports and aviation support thousands of jobs. Without support all are at high risk.”
– The full report Beyond furlough: why the UK needs a permanent short-time work scheme is here:
Excellent advice from the National Wellbeing Hub …
The majority of Covid restrictions in Scotland have now been lifted. For many this will signal the beginning of the end of the pandemic, and a return to ‘normality’.
For some of us though, this is going to be an anxious time. We might be feeling anxious about going out, meeting friends, or going back into offices without the previous social distancing measures that were in place. This reaction is normal, and there are some simple things that you can do to help yourself.
If you’re worried about going back to the office speak to your line manager – they should be able to reassure you about what will be in place to keep you safe when you return.
Equally, if you’re going to be working from home for a little longer and are concerned about the impact this is having on your mental wellbeing, raise these concerns.
If you’re worried about getting back into ‘normal’ life, talk to friends, family or trusted colleagues about how you’re feeling. You might find they share your concerns – support one another through these times.
Most places are going to feel busier, but with cafes, pubs, restaurants, and shops more accessible, outdoor spaces like parks and public gardens may be that bit quieter.
You might feel more comfortable easing yourself back into things by meeting people outdoors to begin with. Just because we can meet more people in more places doesn’t mean that we have to. Take things at your own pace and build up confidence gradually.
The pandemic has taught us all how to keep connected at a distance, and to develop creative ways of keeping ourselves entertained. Just because things are opening up again doesn’t mean we can’t continue with some of these things.
When you are out and about, try to keep in mind some of the things we still have to keep us safe from the virus such as wearing a face covering in shops and on public transport. Most of us will now have had both doses of the vaccine. While this won’t make you invincible, it does make it much less likely that you will catch Covid and that the severity of illness is lessened.
Think about your breathing. Taking slow, deep breaths, in through the nose and out through the mouth, as you’re walking out the house. Have a listen to this 10-minute guided relaxation podcast.
Keep a routine. Regular sleep and activity will help you feel more in control. If you’re having difficulty sleeping, try Sleepio.
Be kind to yourself and other people. We’ve never had to deal with a situation like this before, so don’t be hard on yourself for the way you’re feeling. Try not to be too hard on others either. It can feel frustrating seeing people slip back into the ‘old normal’, but remember, restrictions have been tough for everyone and we will all feel differently about the easing of restrictions.
Try one of these apps. Daylight or Feeling Good are very helpful for managing anxiety, and Silvercloud has a number of programmes to help reduce stress and build resilience. Visit the Free apps and online programmes page of this site for details on how to register for these.
Drop-in clinics will begin to offer Pfizer vaccines to 16 and 17 year olds this weekend, Health Secretary Humza Yousaf confirmed yesterday.
The Scottish Government has written to health boards to say that this age group can now be vaccinated in drop-ins, provided staff training and information resources are in place. Availability will be advertised locally before the full national roll-out on Tuesday.
Anyone in this age group who lives in mainland Scotland can also book an appointment via the online portal at NHS Inform. Eligible young people in Shetland, Orkney and Western Isles will be contacted by their health board and invited to attend clinics.
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “In line with the latest advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), those who are 16 and 17 will be offered a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
“We know that drop-in clinics make it easier for young people to fit getting vaccinated into their busy lives. I am therefore pleased to announce that some clinics will be able to start to offer 16-17 year olds the Pfizer vaccine this weekend. Arrangements differ across the country, and you should check your local health board’s social media channels to see what is available in your local area.
“Then, from Tuesday 10 August, all drop-in clinics in Scotland that offer the Pfizer vaccine will be open to 16-17-year-olds.
“I would urge all eligible young people to take up the offer of vaccination. You can find out where your nearest drop-in clinics are by visiting NHS Inform which will direct you to the latest information from your local health board – or through your local board’s social media channels.
“Our route out of this pandemic is getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible, that is why I am urging young people to take up the offer of the vaccine by dropping into a clinic or by booking an appointment.”
As restrictions lift, getting back to ‘normal’ is simply out of reach for many families and children, who are lacking the funds and resources to reconnect with friends and family, play sport, visit attractions and play outdoors.
At the same time, Oxford Brooks University research has highlighted that lockdown restrictions have had a detrimental impact on children in particular, as reduced play and more sedentary behaviour has the potential to damage their long-term development.
In response, In Kind Direct, the UK charity that distributes large scale donations of products to charitable organisations, has set it’s sights on supporting Save the Children and the #SummerOfPlay initiative aimed at helping children get mentally and physically active this summer. At it’s heart it aims to give children the summer they deserve.
Over 100,000 products have been donated to In Kind Direct so far, which they will be distributing to the 7,000 UK charitable organisations in their network across the summer.
Products include arts and crafts, board games, stationery, lunch boxes, backpacks, jigsaws, books, toys, sports kits, balls and outdoor play equipment – all to support schools, charities and community groups with their holiday activities and aiming to address the startling statistics:
Almost a quarter (23%) of children revealed they’re playing less sport and being less active than they used to be
77% of charities in In Kind Direct’s network are seeing declining health and wellbeing in their areas
76% of respondents from In Kind Direct’s charity network report people they support are feeling increasingly isolated and lonely
In Kind Direct has joined forces with a number of incredible donating organisations and brands such as; Flying Tiger Copenhagen, PZ Cussons, TCC Global, Micro Scooters, Amazon, Mitre Sports and Hasbro – all have generously donated a wide range of products that will have an incredible impact and enable charitable organisations to do so much more across the summer holidays.
Activity specialists Merlin, Junior Adventures and Big Game Hunters, have also donated generously, offering free placements at theme parks, opportunities to attend activity camps and chances to win outdoor play equipment – helping to boost physical and mental wellbeing at a time when it has been negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.
Debbie, from Pilton Youth & Children’s Project in North Edinburgh, said: “We work with children living in an area of multiple deprivation, so we try to make summer school holidays as fun as possible.
“We want children to remember their summers and have stories to tell their children when they become adults. By giving them access to toys and fun activities they are very happy and can start to create some happy memories together.”
Rosanne Gray, In Kind Direct CEO, comments: “It’s heart-breaking to see the statistics of how much the pandemic has impacted children’s mental and physical development. Not having access to simple pleasures like a football or puzzles which many families take for granted has stopped many kids from being active and social.
“We cannot let this pandemic continue to impact physical and mental wellbeing for our younger generation, which is why we are encouraging any businesses with products or services to donate and make a difference over these summer months.”
If you are a manufacturer, retailer or supplier and want to donate contact:
ELREC organised a lunch for their team of volunteers to say thank-you for their efforts during the coronavirus pandemic.
ELREC’s chair Foysul Choudhury MBE MSP explained: “We wanted to show our appreciation to all our volunteers who have helped us deliver vital work during Covid 19.
“The volunteers came together every Friday to collect Fareshare food, prepare food boxes, order and include halal chicken and then deliver to local communities in Edinburgh.
“Since June 2020 we have supported over 250 families with food boxes. The demand is still high however due to end of funding we have had to reduce our supply to 25 boxes per week.
“The event was attended by 32 of our dedicated volunteers and staff members. We had lovely lunch and provided gift bags and certificates to everyone involved.”
The lunch was organised by Foysol (above left), ELREC secretary Ragnish Singh and Honorary President Sir Geoff Palmer OBE.
‘It’s been a physical and mental struggle, and I am proud to have got over the line’
A NEW Edinburgh Napier graduate has told how her path to an MBA was almost wrecked by Sri Lanka’s horrific Easter bombings.
Health management student Hashani Gunasekera was finalising her research proposal for her online course when suicide bombers claimed the lives of 269 people on April 21 2019.
The atrocity sparked widespread tension on the South Asian island and a security crackdown which included a ban on public use of the internet.
Then, just as the situation was stabilising, along came the Covid pandemic which forced Hashani to defer her research into patients undergoing elective surgery so she could go and work on the hospital frontline.
In a year in which no graduate had it easy, the 28-year-old has more reasons than most to be proud of the Masters in Business Administration (Health Management) she was finally awarded this week by Edinburgh Napier.
Hashani said: “Completing my MBA has been a physical and mental struggle so I am very proud to have got over the line, with particular thanks to my supervisor Libby Campbell, who showed the utmost support throughout all these crises.
“It really is a dream come true. Now I hope to use my knowledge and experience to work in the health administrative sector to improve health systems in Sri Lanka and create a safe environment for both patients and doctors.”
Hashani’s course was delivered by the University in partnership with the Sri Lanka-based Business Management School, and Edinburgh Napier teaching staff travelled to South Asia for the orientation programme and some lectures.
Hashani began her studies in January 2018, but 15 months later the peace of the island was shattered when nine suicide bombers detonated devices in six locations. The victims ranged from worshippers celebrating Easter in church to tourists eating in hotel restaurants.
The student said: “It happened just weeks before I was due to submit my research proposal, and the country was plunged into distress with curfews and multiple bomb scares which brought back memories of the civil war. Security was increased everywhere and there was a ban on the internet as well for the public.”
Tensions gradually eased but by the time Hashani got clearance to carry out her research she was working round-the-clock as an intern doctor at a busy district hospital in the northern province of Kilinochchi. Her on-call duties covered obstetrics, gynaecology and internal medicine.
She said: “I was away from my family and loved ones and internet access was poor, hampering my attempts to complete my dissertation. Then Covid struck and I had to defer for a year and go and work frontline. My research focused on patients undergoing elective surgery, and this type of surgery was cancelled during the pandemic.
“It was not until this year, after overcoming multiple delays, bombings, a pandemic and a physically and mentally exhausting internship, that I finally managed to complete my MBA – before a third wave of Covid struck.”
Hashani is now working as a medical officer in a government hospital in Sri Lanka, a role which combines medical and administrative work. She said: “I am keen to promote patient-centred decision making. I am also planning to start my own medical clinic in the future, and hope to use my expertise as a doctor and an administrator to provide the best of care for my patients.”
Libby Campbell, lecturer in Edinburgh Napier’s School of Health & Social Care, said: “Hashani should be proud of herself, achieving an MBA from Edinburgh Napier and doing so entirely online, when it was available, while working in frontline healthcare, during a major incident and its fallout, and during the pandemic.
“I’m glad I was able to help support her and I wish her well for the future.”
The British Medical Association (BMA) has urged the UK Government this week to rethink its plan to relax all restrictions owing to the surge in COVID-19 infection rates.
The association has been a leading voice in the debate on the issue on the national and international media.
Senior BMA members including chair of council Chaand Nagpaul and co-chairs of the BMA’s public health committee Penelope Toff and Richard Jarvis co-signed a letter in TheLancet published on Thursday – which described the easing of restrictions as ‘reckless’.
Dr Nagpaul also appeared on the BBC’s Newsnight last night (9 July) saying it was ‘folly’ for the UK Government to press ahead with easing all restrictions on 19 July. He pointed to the growing evidence of spiralling infections leading to growing hospitalisations as well as wider effects on public health.
‘We need to dispel the idea we’ve broken the link with hospitalisations. It’s diluted but we have about three times as many people on ventilators than this time last month and two and a half times more people in hospital than last month,’ he said and added that if the trends continue this will further increase the pressures on the NHS.
Dr Nagpaul added that this was not simply a secondary care issue but there were now growing numbers of the population suffering from the condition not going to hospital many of whom will go on to have long COVID.
The BMA is arguing for the UK Government to maintain some targeted control measure in place after 19 July including the requirement to continue wearing face coverings in indoor public settings and improved messaging on social distancing and meeting outdoors where possible.
Dr Nagpaul (above) said full easing on the timescale proposed ‘defied public health logic’ – further unlocking of restrictions was a matter of timings rather than ‘indefinite restrictions’. Dr Nagpaul also appeared on CNN on Thursday arguing for targeted restrictions to remain.
Following Monday’s press conference by the prime minister, the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser, the BMA issued a statement describing the proposed easing of restriction as ‘incredibly concerning’.
‘There is a clear disconnect with the actions the Government is planning to take and the data and views of the scientific community and medical profession,’ it says.
On Monday evening deputy council chair David Wrigley appeared on Channel 5 News to reflect on the announcement and said getting rid of restrictions was ‘reckless’ and was a ‘recipe for seeing an increase in infections which is not good for the NHS and not good for patients’.
The situation in Scotland remains concerning, where Covid levels are among the highest in Europe and hospitals are coming under increasing pressure.
The Scottish Cabinet meets on Tuesday morning and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will update Holyrood on Scotland’s plans for moving to Level 0 on Tuesday afternoon.
The Scottish Government had originally planned that all parts of Scotland woud be in level zero from 19 July, allowing some additional relaxation to rules on physical distancing and outdoor gatherings.
Following these initial easings in July, the plan is that more restrictions will be removed on 9 August, including lifting the legal requirement to physically distance indoors.
However the Scottish Government has repeatedly said it will be driven by ‘data not dates’ and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said earlier this week that these dates are not written in ‘tablets of stone’.
Census by RCEM Scotland shows a shortage of key senior decision-making clinicians and a workforce below adequate staffing levels
A census of the Emergency Medicine workforce in Scotland by the Royal College of Emergency has found shortages of key senior decision-makers, and a workforce that is below adequate staffing levels to deliver the best and most effective care to patients.
When asked for immediate staffing needs, Emergency Departments across Scotland reported they needed an increase of:
25% in consultants
45% in Advanced Clinical Practitioners/Advanced Nursing Practitioners/Physician Associates
16% in Emergency Nurse Practitioners
22% in Higher Specialist Trainees/Non-consultant Senior Decision-Makers
21% in Junior Doctors
RCEM analysis shows that to resolve the shortages of senior decision-makers and to achieve adequate staffing and aspirational staffing levels by 2026 the current workforce in Scotland needs a total of 405 more health care staff broken down as:
113 more consultants
74 more Higher Specialist Trainees/Non-consultant Senior Decision-Makers
38 more Advanced Clinical Practitioners/Advanced Nursing Practitioners/Physician Associates
180 more Junior Doctors
RCEM’s Scotland workforce census consisted of a 64-question survey and was sent to Emergency Department Clinical Leads across Scotland.
Responses were received from 24 Emergency Departments, including all 20 consultant-led Emergency Departments, one Minor Injury Unit, and three Remote and Rural Hospitals.
Commenting on RCEM’s Scotland workforce census, Dr John Thomson, Vice President (Scotland) of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “The census clearly shows that the Emergency Medicine workforce in Scotland is not adequately staffed to deliver the highest quality patient care.
“This has led to an increase in intense pressures on the existing workforce and is very likely to be a contributing factor to the continued deterioration in performance.
“We have always been proud of Scotland’s performance in Emergency Medicine, ensuring quick and effective care that outperformed the rest of the United Kingdom. But, even before the pandemic, the increase in demand put severe pressure on staff, and departments began to struggle to meet the four-hour access standard, but more seriously began to struggle to deliver appropriate treatment to patients, resulting in more delays and longer stays.
“The pandemic certainly exacerbated these issues and now there are some major challenges that face Emergency Medicine in Scotland. Emergency Medicine can be relentless; a service delivered 24 hours a day, seven days a week, will always take its toll, and the pandemic has highlighted the severe burnout that Emergency Medicine staff, especially face.
“Departments must be staffed with a workforce trained and qualified in Emergency Medicine. Shortages in senior decision-making staff groups can lead to Emergency Departments over-depending on junior staff. The census shows that we need considerable expansion of funded consultant and senior decision-maker posts in order to prioritise patient safety and quality of care.
“We managed to survive the first two waves of pandemic with an insufficient workforce, but now these existing staff are facing burnout and exhaustion – with some clinicians reporting they are planning on retiring early. This census clearly shows that we must act and address these problems without delay.
“The Scottish Government must work with the specialty to devise an adequate workforce plan for the emergency care system, taking into account population needs and rising demand on the service. Plans must ensure sustainable and fulfilling careers for all staff, allowing for the delivery of quick, safe, and effective care for patients.
“Without a sufficient workforce plan that addresses the findings of the census, it is likely that there will be continued deterioration in Emergency Department performance and rates of burnout will continue to increase amongst Emergency Medicine staff.”
