The actions are based on wide engagement with our partner organisations and Councillors, including 14 engagement workshops which helped identify key priorities.
The measures outlined in the Housing Emergency Action Plan are expected to reduce the number of households in Edinburgh without settled accommodation.
They include:
Reviewing the Allocation Policy for Council Homes to ensure it continues to enable fair access to housing, including consideration of protected characteristics, such as gender.
Improve the standard of repairs and repairs response for Council housing.
Ensure all relevant and appropriate partners are included and supported to resolve the housing emergency.
Improve the relationship between housing officer and tenant, ensuring local housing staff are visible in their localities and available to meet tenants where and when this is required.
It comes as the Council agreed to introduce a 7% rent rise for tenants over 10 years at the Full Council meeting on Thursday 22 February. In an effort to tackle the city’s housing crisis, the increase could raise around £2bn.
Around 80% of tenants in Edinburgh receive assistance with their rent in the form of housing benefits or Universal Credit. The council intends to extend its Tenant Hardship Fund to support households who aren’t entitled to this support to access funding if they struggle to afford an increase in rent.
Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work Convener Jane Meagher said: “It’s so important that we take drastic action to protect the most vulnerable people in our city before it’s too late. The ongoing cost-of-living crisis has led to a demand for temporary accommodation in Edinburgh which far outstrips supply.
“Having a safe, comfortable home is a basic human right so we’re determined to do everything within our means to put an end to this housing emergency.
“The measures outlined in the Action Plan, along with the 7% rent rise which will allow us to repair, upgrade, and retrofit housing and to build and buy much needed social and affordable housing, go a long way in tackling the crisis. However, the reality is that we can only act within the financial limitations of being the lowest funded local authority in Scotland.
“We need a concerted and co-ordinated response, and my thanks go to our partners who have shown support from the day we declared the housing emergency. It gives me great confidence that we can work together to improve the situation, but we can’t do it alone.
“We need more support from the Scottish Government to end the crisis once and for all. Their decision to slash nearly £200m from the affordable housing budget comes at a time when we need vital funding now more than ever. I won’t stop fighting for fairer funding.”
Delivering more social homes is the only way to end Edinburgh’s housing emergency according to a leading housing charity.
Speaking at a housing summit hosted by the Edinburgh Futures Institute, Shelter Scotland Director Alison Watson said investing in social homes would be vital in fixing the city’s broken housing system.
The summit comes just a day after new figures revealed that 1,525 children in Edinburgh are living in temporary accommodation, the highest number on record and more than any other local authority in Scotland.
The same figures also showed an increase in the number of households in temporary accommodation, the number of open homeless applications, and the number of breaches of the unsuitable accommodation order in Edinburgh.
Shelter Scotland Director, Alison Watson, said:“Record numbers of children in Edinburgh have nowhere to call home, rents are out of control, resource starved local services can’t cope and so people’s housing rights are being breached, the law is being broken, with alarming regularity.
“Undoubtedly the root cause of Edinburgh’s housing emergency is a chronic shortage of social housing. Addressing that shortfall is the only way to fix the capital’s utterly broken housing system.
“Only yesterday the Scottish Government has pressed ahead with brutal cuts to the housing budget – a choice which is set to make the situation much worse.
“Our politicians need to understand that you can’t slash funding for social housing then expect those who live in the capital to take you seriously when you say you’re committed to tackling Edinburgh’s housing emergency.”
Tenants’ rights in Scotland continue to be strongest in the UK
Private renters are being urged to know their rights before the emergency rent cap and additional evictions protections in Scotland come to an end from 1st April.
Tenants in Scotland have some of the strongest rights of any part of the UK, an awareness raising campaign will highlight those rights and what tenants should expect from their landlords, including:
the right to ask for a review of a rent increase
protection from illegal evictions or being asked to leave a property without proper notice
a landlord giving a tenant the correct notice period before increasing rent
ensuring rented homes are maintained to an acceptable standard
Tenants and landlords are also reminded that the emergency rent cap is still in place until 1 April, so all rent increase notices for private residential tenancies issued before then must still comply with the current cap of 3%.
Rent increases proposed after that date still need to give 3 months’ notice, and tenants can seek a review of increases they are concerned about.
On a visit to Clackmannanshire Citizens’ Advice Bureau, where he spoke to rent advisors, Tenants’ Rights Minister Patrick Harvie said: “Our emergency legislation has led the way in the UK in capping most in-tenancy rent increases, protecting tenants across Scotland from the worst impacts of the cost-of-living crisis.
“The emergency nature of the legislation, which was approved by parliament, means the rent cap cannot be extended beyond 31 March. But tenants still have significant rights from before the emergency act, and we have made use of powers to make sure any rent rises are more manageable.
“Subject to parliamentary approval, the system of checking rent rises will be adjusted from 1 April so that rents are not simply jumping to market levels in all cases in one step.
“I would encourage anyone who is currently renting or about to enter the rental market to check the rights that exist to protect them from unfair practices.”
Citizens Advice Scotland spokesperson Emma Jackson said: “It’s so important that people understand their rights around private rents once the rent cap ends. If you think your landlord has put up the rent by too much after 1 April you can apply to Rent Service Scotland to see if it is a fair rise.
“The reality is the cost-of-living crisis has left a lot of people struggling to afford essential bills like energy and rent, and the Citizens Advice network can help with broader advice to increase how much money you have coming in each month or cutting bills.”
The research project examined fresh-thinking and technology adoption across Scotland’s housing, health and social care sectors with the aim of better understanding the potential for innovation clusters, the role of public investment and capacity for innovation in the key sectors.
Despite the research reenforcing sector-wide challenges, Edinburgh-based Blackwood and its bespoke tech solutions were included as a case study of what is possible within tech-enabled care, despite the challenges faced by the sector.
Simon Fitzpatrick, Chief Executive at Blackwood said: “We are constantly striving to find new ways to improve the lives of the people we support. Receiving recognition and awareness for it always motivates us to keep pushing boundaries and leading the way.
“The research study by the Fraser of Allander Institute is an extremely valuable piece of work for the sector that we’re thrilled to be positively featured in. It’s very rewarding to be recognised.”
One tech solution mentioned in the report is Blackwood’s CleverCogs technology, a specially designed tablet-based system, which has delivered measurable improvements in quality of life and efficiencies in service delivery, despite major budgetary constraints.
Many Blackwood properties feature its CleverCogs technology which is personalised and links users to care and health services, home automation, local information, entertainment and video access to family and friends. The CleverCogs digital system lets users customise it to suit their life.
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director at the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute said: “We were asked by the Scottish Government to analyse the current social care innovation landscape and the potential for further development of tech solutions for those who draw on care.
“Blackwood homes provided an example of an organisation that has been able to take forward significant technological innovations. As our report stated, based on our research with others in the sector, this was an exception rather than the rule.”
The report, which was released late last year, also noted Blackwood’s strategy of close collaboration with residents and technology partners to develop solutions tailored to their needs – noting the crucial role of innovation-focused leadership in driving progress and cultural change.
Blackwood is now renowned as Scotland’s most tech-focused housing specialist, deploying cutting-edge technology to help its customers to live independently. With 600 staff across Scotland, the charity’s headquarters are in Edinburgh.
Simon added: “Making change is a team effort of course, so it’s fantastic to see our co-design approaches with customers and partners held up as an example model.
“The report does an excellent job of highlighting the hurdles the housing and care sector is having to jump in Scotland at the moment and it can be difficult to continue to innovate new forms of tech-enabled care while combatting challenges like funding or labour shortages.
“Despite that, it only gives us more fuel to continue that fresh thinking to allow people to live as independently as possible.
“Our customers are at the heart of everything we do and we owe it to them to explore every opportunity that technology offers to enhance the quality of their lives. It’s rewarding that Blackwood is setting the standard in that.”
As Scotland’s most tech-focused housing provider, its Blackwood House design guide – developed in partnership with architects Lewis and Hickey – is the gold standard for accessible housing.
Over the next five years Blackwood aims to build 400 such homes, that can adapt to tenants’ future needs. Each can be adapted to include a host of benefits such as lift access, remotely controlled automated functions, and digital care and housing systems.
The housing specialist puts customers at the heart of everything it does, and their satisfaction is critical to Blackwood’s success. As a modern, supportive employer it also provides individuals with pathways towards achieving long and rewarding careers in roles that make a positive difference.
A leading Edinburgh letting agent has hit out at the latest changes to safety regulations that private landlords must comply with or risk prosecution.
The government-issued Repairing Standard Guidance sets repair requirements for landlords in Scotland’s private sector with the latest revisions due to become law on 1 March 2024.
But Jonathan Gordon, Managing Director of Clan Gordon letting agents, which manages more than 650 rental properties across the city, describes the latest regulations as having ‘major flaws’.
Mr Gordon says two of the requirements – to replace lead water pipes and install electrical safety equipment – have either changed with not enough time to get the work done or are unclear on precisely what work needs completing to meet the criteria.
Clan Gordon is now lobbying the Scottish Government to push back the deadline so landlords can get clarity on the rules, which also include new requirements on food preparation spaces, fixed heating systems and common doors.
New guidelines are ‘a logistical nightmare’
Mr Gordon said: “There are two major problems with the new guidance on lead pipework – guidance which was not even in the first iteration of the guidance when it came out in March 2023.
“They state that water supply pipes in privately rented homes need to be free of lead from the boundary stopcock to the kitchen tap. In a house, that’s something you can often easily identify and changing the pipes doesn’t cause a lot of disruption.
“However, legislation says there must be no lead solder or fittings either, which means, because lead solder continued to be used legally until 1987 and illegally after that time, you still can’t be sure it is lead-free because lead solder looks identical to lead-free solder.
“In tenement buildings built prior to 1970 the communal main risers – the vertical pipes that allow fresh water to rise from lower floors to upper floors – will invariably be made from lead. So, replacing these will be a logistical nightmare.
“They’re often embedded in bathroom walls which would mean ripping those out in every property and running a new mains riser up the stairwell. That’s a significant, disruptive, time-consuming job, with no local council grants available to help with the cost. Who can get that done in four weeks?
“Our view is that landlords, especially in older tenement buildings, are heavily penalised by this new rule. We feel the rules on lead in water should be part of the Tolerable Standard so that all owners are required to comply.
“Not only is the government trying to get landlords to solve a problem affecting the whole community, but they are making it unlikely to have any impact on the amount of lead as it will be virtually impossible in most tenements to get common agreement. Our clients already find it almost impossible to get common agreement on important shared repairs such as leaking roofs or unsafe stonework let alone an expensive improvement like this.”
Further clarity needed on water testing procedures
Mr Gordon has also challenged the testing procedures for lead in water. Previous guidance asked tenants to not use their water supply for 30 minutes before drawing a sample for testing. But re-issued guidance removed this stipulation and instead says to follow instructions from the testing labs which typically recommend a period of 12 hours with no usage before taking the sample.
He added: “Quite apart from the fact that they can’t practically ask everyone in a tenement block to not fill a kettle or flush their toilet for 12 hours, if the tester has previously used the old guidance and drawn a sample after 30 minutes, there is a chance it has given a false result and will need retesting.
“So, tenants looking to protect their children from the harmful effects of lead may take false comfort from the standard and not filter their water or take other precautions they otherwise might have.
“No matter what process we follow to try and ensure clients’ properties are compliant with the standard, surely the Scottish Government must accept that this is impossible to achieve in a few weeks? Scottish Water is unable to take samples in bulk due to workload. The council-owned lab is closed for two weeks in February.”
New guidance on electrical circuit breakers
The new guidance also compels landlords to install one or more residual current devices (RCDs) in properties to reduce the risk of electrocution and fire. RCDs quickly shut the power supply down if they detect a problem.
Mr Gordon, a qualified chartered surveyor, said: “It is good to have some fresh guidance on RCDs as the rules were very vague on them before. However, we have spent the last six months checking 600-plus electrical safety certificates to determine which properties don’t have the single RCD which was the specified requirement in the original guidance.
“But with four weeks to go, the guidance changed to say that, as a minimum, there must be one RCD on the socket circuits. This means we must go back through the 236 properties that were ‘compliant’ by virtue of having at least one RCD, to try and discover which of those don’t have an RCD on the socket circuit specifically – and have that actioned by 1 March.
“Even that’s not clear though – it seems to be down to whichever electrician you bring in to decide whether you’re compliant.
“No-one is saying these regulations are not a good idea but it’s essential that standards and guidance are clear and unambiguous. Although the re-issued guidance is now less ambiguous, the government must accept that the date the standard comes into effect must be moved from 1 March 2024.
“I do hope that future changes to these standards will follow a sensible consultation exercise which includes the relevant experts. In the meantime, we will continue to lobby government on these flawed and unworkable rules.”
In response to the growing demand for affordable, net-zero-ready housing in the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Region Deal (ESESCRD), the partners behind the Edinburgh Home Demonstrator (EHD) programme are putting out a call to house builders to engage with the programme and expedite the delivery of planned housing projects.
The EHD pipeline initiative aims to expedite the construction of 11,000 homes within the next five years that have been identified as part of a larger pipeline of 25,000 homes spanning the six local authority areas in the ESESCRD area.
House builders who engage will implement the EHD typologies for affordable net-zero-ready homes which have been developed, tested, and optimised throughout the programme’s three pilot projects.
The EHD model is centred around collaborative procurement, whole life costing, development pipeline, and increased standardisation of housing types.
Now, the focus of EHD is on leveraging the lessons learned through the pilot projects to streamline the delivery of high-quality, affordable net-zero-ready homes in the region. This open call by the South East Regional Delivery Alliance is for industry and public sector house builders to actively participate in the expedited delivery of 11,000 net zero homes.
House builders engaging with the South East Regional Delivery Alliance’s open call will benefit from access to EHD’s resources and expertise to support the adoption of the EHD delivery model through collaborative procurement by bundling sites, standardising products and embracing offsite manufacturing. By doing so, house builders will be able to drive economies of scale, realise whole life cost savings and support the Scottish Government’s net-zero targets for affordable homes.
Figure 1: Regional Delivery Alliance Model and Outcomes
House builders who are interested in finding out more about how to engage and benefit from EHD are encouraged to contact Sinclair Young, EHD Programme Manager – Development & Regeneration at The City of Edinburgh Council through the Edinburgh Home Demonstrator website: https://edinburgh-home-demonstrator.org/contact
The Scottish Futures Trust construction forecast tool is also available to provide a comprehensive understanding of the construction pipeline across the whole of Scotland.
Marjory Mackie, Housing Strategy and Development Manager at West Lothian Council, said: “Along with the other local authorities in the Regional Delivery Alliance, we are excited to invite home builders to engage with the Edinburgh Home Demonstrator programme.
“By embracing the EHD typologies and leveraging the collaborative approach, builders will not only contribute to meeting the growing demand for housing but also reap the many economic and design benefits.
“If we can accelerate the delivery of high-quality, affordable, net-zero-ready homes, we can make a significant impact on the affordable housing landscape in the City Region Deal area, while lowering emissions.”
Alex Goodfellow, CEO at Donaldson Offsite, said:“The EHD programme is an excellent example of industry working in partnership with government bodies and with the support of academia.
“The high-quality research and development work has helped to produce a commercially viable contribution to the current housing challenges we face, while the suite of low carbon home designs created using offsite timber systems demonstrate the collective capability of the Scottish design, manufacturing and development community. ”
Increasing exemptions to additional properties tax
Legislation enabling councils to increase their affordable housing stock without having to pay a tax on additional properties has been introduced in the Scottish Parliament.
Under changes to the Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS), paid as part of Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, the length of time a buyer moving between properties has to sell their original home in order to be able to reclaim ADS would also be extended from 18 months to 36 months.
Other changes include an exemption for people buying a new property to live in after divorce or separation if they are required by court to keep their previous home. Further amendments will exempt buyers from paying ADS on a property for which missives have been signed when a separate property has been inherited in the meantime.
Public Finance Minister Tom Arthur said: “The Additional Dwelling Supplement is an important source of revenue and in 2022-23 raised £163 million to support vital public services. The tax works well in most cases but we have taken on board feedback about the way it operates in certain circumstances.
“We want everyone in Scotland to have an affordable home that meets their needs, which is why we’re extending the scope of relief for councils to help them increase their affordable housing stock without having to pay tax on additional properties.
“The amendments also take on board feedback that it can be tricky for people moving house to sell their original home within 18 months due to differences in supply and demand in the housing market across Scotland.
“I am grateful to everyone who responded to the Scottish Government’s consultation on these changes and look forward to working with MSPs as the legislation progresses through Parliament.”
No change in Scotland’s house price over last twelve months
· East Renfrewshire prices rise by 12.0%
· Dumfries and Galloway prices fall by -5.4%
· Transactions down by 12.3% on 2022 levels
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments: “At a national level, the picture this month shows Scotland’s average house price in November 2023 barely changed over the last year. However, it also reveals some significant regional differences in average house prices over the same period.
“This is remarkable when you consider the affordability pressures experienced by the housing market since the autumn of ’22. The average house price now is just -£16 lower than twelve months earlier and stands at £222,637.
“The reality is that regional hotspots like East Renfrewshire which enjoyed price gains of 12% during the period have been offset by dips elsewhere, such as Dumfries and Galloway which has endured a fall of -5.4%.
“We have also seen variance in property types. Over the last year, the average price of detached properties has increased by +1.2%, and flats by +0.5%, while semi-detached and terraced properties have fallen by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively.
“With underlying trends such as mortgage affordability improving now, more buyers will re-enter the market providing competition for the cash purchasers, who currently represent 36% of all sales in Scotland, which will further boost confidence.”
House Price
Index
Monthly Change %
Annual Change %
£222,637
291.6
-0.3
0.0
Table 1. Average House Prices in Scotland for the period November 2022 – November 2023
(The prices are end-month smoothed over a 3 month period)
Month
Year
House Price
Index
Monthly Change %
Annual Change %
November
2022
£222,653
291.6
0.1
6.7
December
2022
£222,399
291.3
-0.1
6.5
January
2023
£221,162
289.7
-0.6
4.5
February
2023
£219,827
287.9
-0.6
2.9
March
2023
£219,531
287.5
-0.1
1.3
April
2023
£221,173
289.7
0.7
1.5
May
2023
£223,391
292.6
1.0
1.6
June
2023
£223,831
293.2
0.2
1.4
July
2023
£223,308
292.5
-0.2
0.5
August
2023
£223,079
292.2
-0.1
0.4
September
2023
£223,803
293.1
0.3
0.7
October
2023
£223,403
292.6
-0.2
0.5
November
2023
£222,637
291.6
-0.3
0.0
Note: The Walker Fraser Steele Acadata House Price Index (Scotland) provides the “average of all prices paid for houses”, including those made with cash.
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
November’s housing market
Scotland’s average house price in November 2023 has barely changed over the last year, being just £16 lower than twelve months earlier, and now stands at £222,637. Looking at Table 1 above, it can be seen that for eight of the last twelve months, the average house price has been in a range between £222,400 and £223,830, with the peak occurring in June 2023.
However, referring to Table 2 (on page 4 of this report), there is only one local authority area where the annual rate of change in house prices is zero, which is Glasgow City.
All 31 other areas in Scotland will therefore have been seeing some movement in their average house prices over the previous twelve months. Excluding annual price changes in the range of ±1% only removes a further 4 authorities, leaving 27 authorities that have annual price movements in excess of ±1%.
Indeed, an annual rate of ±3.6% would need to be reached before excluding half of the 32 areas in Scotland. It would therefore be wrong to conclude that all of Scotland’s local housing markets have been static over the last twelve months – rather, the more correct conclusion is that “it just so happens” that when you add all the movements in house prices in Scotland together, they sum to minus £16.
A similar picture emerges when looking at property types – over the last year, the average price of detached properties has increased by +1.2%, and flats by +0.5%, while semi-detached and terraced properties have fallen by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively.
Again, the sum of these changes will amount to (minus) £16 – but that is by chance. There are however underlying trends, such as the level of interest rates (discussed later) and the increase in household living costs which will affect all properties, but even then, these factors don’t necessarily apply to all.
Cash purchasers, for example – who currently represent 36% of all sales in Scotland – may be less influenced by high interest rates, compared to having to take out a loan to purchase a property.
Figure 1.Scotland’s average house price for the period from March 2020 to November 2023
Figure 1 shows how average house prices in Scotland have changed since the start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.
It can be seen that the average price has barely moved over the twelve months from November 2022 to November 2023, although values have risen by £39,640 from March 2020. This increase of 21.7% over the period compares to a figure of 19.7% in the CPIH Index – so in real terms (after allowing for consumer price inflation) the average house price in Scotland since the start of the pandemic has risen by 2.0%.
Local Authority Analysis
Table 2. Average House Prices in Scotland, by local authority area, comparing November 2022, October 2023 and November 2023
Table 2 shows average house prices, calculated on a seasonal- and mix-adjusted basis, by Local Authority Area, for November 2022 and October and November 2023, together with the corresponding percentage price changes over the last month and year.
The ranking figures are based on average house prices in November 2022 and 2023. Line items are shaded in blue in cases where average house prices in the Local Authority Area have experienced record highs in November 2023.
Annual change
The average house price in Scotland in November 2023 has fallen by a minimal £16, or 0.0%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.5% lower than the rate seen in October, one month earlier. This is the lowest annual growth rate since May 2016, some seven and a half years earlier.
14 of the 32 local authorities in Scotland were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, compared with 17 in October. However, as with the previous month, Edinburgh had the largest fall in prices over the year when measured on a weight-adjusted basis (which takes into account both the number of sales and the nominal fall in its average price of -£7,660), which on its own counterbalanced some 27% of the positive movement in values in the 14 areas with price gains.
In November, on the mainland, East Renfrewshire had the highest increase in its annual rate of price growth, at 12.0%, which enabled the authority to remain in top position in Table 2 for the third month running.
In fact, East Renfrewshire has occupied first place in Table 2 – indicating it has had the highest average property values – for six of the last twelve months, trumping the City of Edinburgh which has only been in first place for four months over this period. In East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in values over the last twelve months, but particularly semi-detached homes, with average prices rising from £300k in November 2022 to £350k twelve months later.
Staying on the mainland, Midlothian has the second-highest annual growth rate at 10.7%. Again, similar to East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in their average prices, but in Midlothian it is terraced properties that have had the most significant increase, up from an average £205k in November 2022 to £235k one year later.
At the other end of the scale, the area on the mainland with the largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway, at -5.4%. In Dumfries and Galloway, all property types saw prices fall over the year, with the largest fall on a weight-adjusted basis being terraced homes, down from an average £140k in November 2022 to £125k one year later.
Monthly change
In November 2023, Scotland’s average house price fell by some -£750, or -0.3%, which contrasts with the revised -£400, or -0.2%, change in prices seen in October. This is the seventh monthly fall of 2023: however, as discussed above, it would appear that prices have been gently oscillating over the last eight months, with the average price ranging between £221,000 and £224,000.
In November 2023, 12 of the 32 Local Authority areas in Scotland experienced rising prices in the month, the same number as in October. The area with the highest increase in its average price in the month was Inverclyde, up by 6.0%, although it still remains the authority with the lowest-priced housing in Scotland. The increase in the area’s price in the month was assisted by the sale of a modern 2-bedroom apartment, in Cloch Road, Gourock, overlooking the Clyde estuary, for £350k.
By way of contrast, the area on the mainland with the largest monthly fall in its average price was Fife, down by -3.6%. All property types in Fife saw a fall in their average prices over the month, with the most significant fall in prices being semi-detached homes, down from £207k in October 2023 to £192k in November.
For interest, the highest-priced home to have been sold in Scotland in November was a £2.9 million five-bedroom detached home in Dirleton, North Berwick, East Lothian, overlooking The Renaissance Golf Club course and the Firth of Forth. Golf is a recurrent theme in the sale of high value homes.
Transactions analysis
Figure 2 below shows the monthly transaction count for purchases during the period from January 2019 to November 2023, based on Registers of Scotland (RoS) figures for the Date of Entry (except for November 2023, which is based on RoS Application Dates).
The first year on the Chart, 2019 (light blue line), was relatively “normal” having an average 8,560 sales per month, some 2.1% higher than the total for 2018, but -0.3% lower than 2017.
As can be seen, 2020 (the turquoise line) was more varied, the Covid pandemic having manifested itself in March 2020, with the first lockdown taking place in April 2020, when the market slumped to just 2,637 sales.
There was then a slow path to recovery during the remainder of 2020 with a peak in transactions in October 2020 of 13,045 sales, as the benefit of the LBTT tax holiday and the mantras of the “race for space” and “work from home” came to the fore.
There was a second peak in transactions in March 2021 (the brown line), as purchasers scrambled to take advantage of the tax holiday, before its cessation on April 1st 2021.
In 2022 (the red line), house purchases returned to near normality, with the first nine months of 2022 seeing an average 8,600 sales per month. However, Liz Truss came into power on 6 September 2022, with her mini-budget, which resulted in the bank base rate being raised to 2.25%. The bank rate was further increased on 3rd November and 15th December 2022, ending the year at 3.5%.
Figure 2.The number of sales per month recorded by RoS based on entry date from 2019 – 2023
This brings us to the current year of 2023 (the black line) – the relatively high bank rate of 3.5% had an adverse effect on property transactions, with only 5,893 sales for January 2023 – the lowest January total since 2013. Although the housing market in 2023 did enjoy the spring bounce in transactions that occurs traditionally in March, the bank base rate was increased a further five times in 2023, reaching 5.25% on 3rd August 2023 (the current rate). Over the first eleven months of 2023, sales are down by 12.3% compared to the equivalent period in 2022.
Scotland transactions of £750k or higher
Table 3. The number of transactions by month in Scotland greater than or equal to £750k, January 2015 – November 2023
Hopes for a more stable 2024 as value of capital firm’s deals reach new high
A firm of solicitors and estate agents hailed a strong bounceback from political unrest as its home sales in Edinburgh reached a record £106m during 2023.
The new high was hit by capital-headquartered Lindsays despite the impact of economic turbulence and rising interest rates which hit the market.
It is the second successive year that the total value of homes sold by the firm in Edinburgh has topped £100m – having been £102m in 2022.
The total has been hailed a significant success for the firm in the face of what they describe as a “long hangover” from former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s emergency budget of 2022 and of the nervousness caused by rising interest rates and the cost of living.
Lindsays also warned that politicians north and south of the border should be aware of the impact their decisions have on people and property.
Maurice Allan, Managing Director of Lindsays’ Residential Property team, said: “These figures are a significant success for us, especially given the turbulence we saw in the market during the first half of the year. When you consider all of that, Edinburgh has really held its own.
“The consequences of political decisions have a real impact on peoples’ lives and can be long-lasting. We saw that with the emergency budget and the long hangover which followed for the property sector.
“It took time for people to work out what the impact of all of that was on their finances – and many delayed making offers on properties as a result, practically shutting down the market.
“Yet, over the course of the rest of the year, the market has proven to be fairly resilient. Supply has improved – and good houses continue to sell well. People have adapted to the financial circumstances and regained the confidence to get back into the market.
“We’re not seeing the huge offer prices over valuation that we were post-lockdown, but what we have essentially seen over the past 12 months is a market which has returned to pre-pandemic levels, which is not a bad place to be.”
Lindsays’ Edinburgh-based estate agency team operates mainly throughout the city and the Lothians.
The total number of property sales during the year was also broadly in line with the previous 12 months – with the average price of homes sold through the firm up in Edinburgh up by about 1.5% to £330,000.
And, looking forward, there are hopes of a more stable market during the next 12 months.
Mr Allan added: “While it’s always difficult to predict what might lie ahead, there are genuine signs of positivity.
“The conversations we are having signal a growing belief that interest rates have peaked. With things more stable, many of those who have been sitting on their hands because interest rates were going up and up are now starting to think seriously about doing something in 2024.”
House sales throughout the wider Lindsays group totalled £174m – with £67.9m sold through its estate agency team in Dundee.
Scottish Labour MSP Foysol Choudhury has implored the Scottish Government to make housing a priority in 2024.
Mr Choudhury has raised concerns over the festive period that hundreds could sadly be faced with rough sleeping this winter, with many more at risk of homelessness or living in what he says is unsuitable temporary accommodation.
Mr Choudhury says he is often inundated with casework where constituents are in poor quality temporary housing and are concerned about the lengthy waits for housing.
It is reported that there could be almost 30,000 people facing homelessness this year. Recent budget plans, however, will see a real-terms cut in homelessness prevention funding for local authorities of £500,000. Mr Choudhury says that this is unacceptable and that the Scottish Government must make it a priority in 2024 to give local authorities sufficient funding.
Mr Choudhury said: “I am reiterating my plea yet again this festive season to the Scottish Government to increase funding to local authorities, so that Councils can ensure that they can meet the demand for housing and have the capacity to build more social housing.
“We also must ensure that Councils have enough funding to make improvements and upgrades to current properties such as retrofitting, which could help improve conditions such as mould and damp which my constituents often report to me.
“Nobody in Scotland should be forced into homelessness or have to endure seemingly endless waiting in unsuitable housing.
“I am imploring the Scottish Government to ensure fair funding for local authorities so that they can invest what is needed in our social housing sector and I will continue to make it a priority to campaign for this in 2024.”
