Health and Social Care – The NEN – North Edinburgh News

New research warns UK facing shortfall of ONE MILLION unpaid carers by 2050

New research conducted by Carers Trust and policy and research consultancy Public First predicts a shortfall of up to ONE MILLION unpaid carers within a generation.

The expected shortfall is calculated from new projections that draw on current trends and future forecasts. It highlights how intense demand for care from an ageing society is set to outstrip the supply of care available unpaid, from family members and friends at an ever-increasing rate over the next two decades.

The shortfall is the difference between the projected ‘demand’ for carers based on the rising number of people with care needs (7.8 million carers needed by 2050) and the ‘supply’ of carers based on the profile of people who care today (6.7 million carers available by 2050).

Under this projection, the number of people able to provide unpaid care will fail to keep pace with ever-greater need, while paid social care – including care homes and home care – will not expand in line with need. this leads to a shortfall of 600,000 unpaid carers by 2035, and an even more alarming one of one million by 2050.

Such a shortfall would have a crippling impact on the provision of care across the UK: a greater number of people would be left with unmet care needs; overall capacity to provide care would be further stretched; and more families and friends would need to step in to fill gaps – from providing sporadic hours of care to caring for multiple people at once.

These changes would have a potentially devastating knock-on effect on unpaid carers’ wellbeing, employment, and the economy.

With care pressures expected to increase across the board in coming years, the research also found that:

10.3m people will need care by 2050, up from 8.4m in 2025
1.2m unpaid carers already provide care hours that equate to a full-time job
1.6m unpaid carers will be in poverty by 2035, rising to over 2m by 2050

The research predicts that the number of people in need of care will have soared by almost two million between 2025 and 2050. Over the same period, without action, the supply of both paid and unpaid care will grow at a much slower rate, thereby failing to keep pace.

These changes are already taking place in society. Over the last 10 years the supply of carers has not increased with rising need, and the average burden on each carer has increased. In the absence of action, the rate at which the gap opening up between supply and demand for care will only quicken over time.

The research comes at a time when Baroness Casey is running her ‘Big Conversation’ amongst the public into the future of social care and follows the announcement by the Prime Minister that he will use what ‘political capital he has’ to reform the system.

Louise Casey has already identified that the work of unpaid carers is one of the main reasons the system continues to function. This research shows that, if nothing changes, this will cease to be the case, with knock on effects on the NHS, public services and the economy.

Carers Trust, as the largest UK charity supporting unpaid carers through its network of 130 local services, is also highlighting the impact on unpaid carers of the current levels of care they are undertaking:

Fewer than three in ten unpaid carers providing care for more than 35 hours a week are in paid work.
Mental and physical health outcomes are consistently worse for unpaid carers than for non-carers.
Unpaid carers are more likely to live in poverty than the broader population, with living conditions worst for those with the most intense caring roles.

Around three in five people in the UK will become carers at some point in their lives. This can happen overnight, often through circumstances that are impossible to predict or plan, such as a family member being diagnosed with a long-term illness or the birth of a child with a disability.

Kirsty McHugh, Chief Executive of Carers Trust, said: “Almost all of us will either care for a loved one or be cared for in turn at some point in our lives. However, as a society, we’re simply not facing up to that fact.

“The gap between soaring demand and shrinking supply of care is opening up like a crocodile’s jaws and, unless we act now, it’s unpaid carers, those they care for, and the system itself that will be swallowed whole.

“This grim future is on the horizon, but there is still time to avoid it if we are willing to do the political hard yards now. The Prime Minister’s commitment to fixing our broken social care system is encouraging, but reform needs to focus on more than care home beds, budgets, and the paid workforce. It has to reckon frankly and fairly with the millions of unpaid carers that are holding the system together – at huge personal cost.

“It could be you, your mother, brother, or child who needs care in the future, or who becomes a carer in turn. We cannot go on asking unpaid carers to absorb yet more pressure, and we cannot let the worst-case scenario set out in this research become our reality.

“We need well-funded local support that reaches carers before they hit crisis point, real, comprehensive financial and wellbeing support, and a system that recognises carers as essential and equal, not invisible and expendable.”

Andrew Harrop, Director at Public First, said: “Today family carers provide the lion’s share of support for people with care needs. But Public First’s projections show that the future supply of carers may not keep up with the demand. In 10 years’ time the UK may need 600,000 more people to care than are in a position to do so.

“The number of people with care needs is rising quickly, because more people are reaching late old age. Meanwhile the number in the generation below who typically provide care is barely increasing.

“The shortfall in carers will mean that more people’s needs go unmet and more intensive pressures on those who are able to care.”

Social care plans risk medicalising disability, care and support, warns COSLA

‘SERIOUS CONCERNS’ OVER SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT’S PLANS

The Scottish Government’s Programme for Government was published on 1^st of September, with the First Minister stating in the Scottish Parliament his belief that the NHS should take the lead through a single line of decision-making, accountability and funding for social care.

Such a change could involve a transfer of legal responsibility from local authorities to NHS Boards. The First Minister has indicated the Scottish Government’s intention to also replace the current 14 territorial NHS Boards with two strategic health boards.

Social care and social work services in Scotland are currently operated through local Health & Social Care Partnerships, which bring local authorities and NHS Boards together to ensure integration in the planning and delivery of community health & social care services.

The Scottish Government’s Programme for Government proposals have been considered by Council Leaders at recent meetings on the 11^th and 25^th of September, where Councillors have expressed serious concerns regarding the impact of the social care plans.

Commenting today (2nd October 2026), COSLA’s Health & Social Care Spokesperson, Councillor Paul Kelly said: “Individuals are shaped by the people, the buildings, the services and society around them.

“At its heart, social work and social care support are about seeing a whole person and supporting them to live a full life in the community. Social care and social work play an essential role in supporting people to retain their independence, often in their own home, and to help people live well.

“A proposal to incorporate social care into a large health infrastructure could risk medicalising disability, care and support, instead of building on progress towards independent living.

“Social care and social work must be seen as an equal partner to the NHS, not subsumed within it.”

Notes:
See COSLA’s most recent response to the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government, including Local Government reform.

New research: total take up of state support would reduce pensioner poverty by 15%

TAKE UP WOULD SAVE NHS AND SOCIAL CARE SERVICES ALMOST £1 BILLION

Research shows that 100% take up of key benefits would cut numbers of pensioners in poverty by 280,000
Due to health impacts, full take-up would also save the NHS and social care services in England £950 million a year
Independent Age recommends the UK Government publish a take-up strategy for financial entitlements to ensure all older people receive everything they should be

New research from national charity Independent Age shows that full take-up of three key financial entitlements could lift 280,000 older people out of poverty across the UK, reducing pensioner poverty by 15%. This includes Pension Credit, pensioner Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction. The analysis was carried out by the research agency Public First.

The report, entitled ‘The only way is up: The impact of improved entitlement take-up on pensioner poverty and healthcare spending’ also shows that increasing take-up of these entitlements to 100% could help improve older people’s health, leading to a reduction in health and social care public spending by up to a colossal £950 million a year in England.

Independent Age is calling on the UK Government to publish an all-entitlements take-up strategy for the UK. This should include a strong commitment and targets to increase take-up.

The number of older people in poverty in the UK is rising, with around 1.7 million in relative poverty in 2024/25, which is an increase of 200,000 compared to the year before. Another one million live close to the poverty line.

Despite this, the charity says that too many eligible older people are missing out on money set aside for them. Over one in three (38%) of those eligible for Pension Credit are not receiving it, and around 230,000 older households are missing out on Housing Benefit.

Official take-up figures of Council Tax Reduction are not produced, however the report analysis indicates that over a million pensioner households could be missing out on this vital support.

The organisation is also calling for the Pensions Commission to agree on what an adequate income in later life looks like, and the UK Government to commit to ensuring everyone receives this.

Concerningly, full take up would also provide an additional 770,000 older people with more vital income, but they would still remain in poverty, indicating that financial entitlements and the State Pension alone is not always adequate to live on.

Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive of Independent Age said: “Our social security system was designed as a safety net for all of us but the evidence is clear, it is failing older people in poverty. Money that has been set aside is not reaching the older people who need it and at a time with increasing costs, the impact of this is devastating.

“Through our helpline, we hear often from older people who are having to skip meals or only wash once a week to make ends meet. This is unacceptable.

“Older people on a low income have been left to struggle for too long. That’s why we urgently need a strategy to ensure everyone receives the support they are entitled to and an agreement on what an adequate income looks like in later life for all of us as we age.

“With the upcoming changes in leadership, this is a golden opportunity for the UK Government to reverse the worsening picture of poverty in later life.”

Independent Age’s report found that three groups especially benefitted from increased take-up of these entitlements. These were: older people living alone, older renters and those on the old State Pension. This is due to a combination of likely higher initial costs such as housing or energy, and a lower income.

Valerie’s Story

Valerie, 68, from the Isle of Wight

“Once the rent was paid, along with Council Tax – more than £150 a month even with the single person discount – there wasn’t enough left. I had to cut back on everything. I lived on £1 meals from Iceland because they were cheap and filling, even though I knew they weren’t very nutritious.

“I relied on a local community pantry where £5 bought roughly £15 of food.

“I couldn’t afford to put the heating on. My house is all electric and it was simply too expensive. I spent winters wrapped in blankets, drinking cups of instant soup to keep warm, and sometimes slept downstairs so I didn’t have to walk through cold rooms at night.”

Valerie called Independent Age and, while she wasn’t eligible for Pension Credit, an adviser supported her to start receiving Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, which she hadn’t previously been aware of. After starting to receive these entitlements, Valerie described the impact this had on her life.

“Life is so much better now. I still budget carefully, but I’m not living on my credit card anymore. I can buy fresh vegetables, cook proper meals and freeze portions so food lasts longer.

“I can travel to the mainland to see family, and I enjoy the things that matter to me, such as going to the local theatre and being part of the choir. I called the Independent Age Helpline at a time in my life when I didn’t know where to turn.

“The support I received has made a dramatic difference to my daily life. I nearly didn’t make that call – but I’m so glad I did. Before that call, I was surviving day to day. Now, I feel like I’m living again.”

Investment to recruit more adult social care workers

SCOTLAND’s adult social care workforce will be boosted to deliver up to 45,000 extra hours of care every month through ongoing investment.

The Adult Social Care Displaced Workers Scheme has reopened to new applications to help expand the number of care workers, increasing the sector’s resilience and capacity to deliver additional care each month.

The initiative, which helps social care employers to recruit international workers who are already in the UK but are without sponsored employment through no fault of their own, has already helped 37 employers recruit 120 workers.

First Minister John Swinney said “meaningful reform requires a workforce to deliver it” as he pressed the UK Government to ensure that international recruitment into the sector can resume.

Ahead of a visit to The Bughties care home in Dundee, where he will meet workers recruited through the scheme, Mr Swinney added: “We are all too familiar with the challenges facing our adult social care sector, especially given our ageing population, and it’s why we must ensure services meet our growing demand for care.

“I committed to provide an extra 45,000 hours of care each month and we have begun to deliver that increase within the first 100 days of the new government.

“UK Government decisions on immigration have inflicted pain on our social care sector at a time when demand for care is increasing and its choices on tax have heaped an £84 million bill on the sector by increasing Employers’ National Insurance contributions.

“The Prime Minister has spoken about reforming social care services, but meaningful reform requires a workforce to deliver it. I urge him to reconsider and to reverse the harm done by the UK Government over the past two years.

“I am grateful to have the opportunity to hear first-hand the positive impact our scheme has had and how we can – and must – explore every option available to ensure we continue to make a positive difference to people’s lives and to a service which we all may one day need.”

Burnham: Time for problem-solving, not point-scoring

FIXING THE BROKEN SOCIAL CARE SYSTEM

Visiting a care home today [Wednesday 29th July], the Prime Minister will say he is making the choice to fix the broken social care system by finding common ground across party lines to tackle the big issues.

He will draw a line under decades of decline and a refusal to tackle these problems head on, calling on all political parties to focus on solving problems and find solutions together.

He will reiterate the need for a new kind of politics that puts differences aside in order to come together and face up to the challenges that Westminster has left unaddressed for too long.

Delivering on that pledge, he has invited the leaders of the two main opposition parties, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey, to meet with him today to kickstart this work and discuss how to drive urgent reform on social care.

Speaking ahead of his speech, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said: “Last week I said we needed a different kind of politics: problem-solving, not point-scoring. Nowhere is that more urgent than social care.

“For decades, governments have kicked this issue down the road because they’ve seen it as too risky, too difficult, and too complicated.

“Politicians might have different views but I’m serious about fixing this issue and to do that, we have to find common ground and listen to others to find a way forward.

“It’s time to draw a line under people playing politics when the human cost of that means carers struggling, families paying the price and our NHS buckling under the strain.

“This comes down to a choice. We can carry on passing the problem to the next generation, or we can face it head on and work together to build a care system that gives people dignity, security and the support they deserve.

“This is about bringing back hope that we can finally fix the difficult issues that have been ignored for too long, and making Britain believe again. That’s why I’m making this choice and I’m prepared to put everything I’ve got behind it.”

At the speech he will be joined by the Health and Social Care Secretary and Baroness Louise Casey, who is leading the Independent Commission on Adult Social Care which will draw up recommendations to deliver a National Care Service.

She will also launch the Big Conversation on Care today, which will give the public their chance to share their views and help shape the future of adult social care in England so that it is designed for the people it is there to serve.

It will be open to everyone through a new online platform, starting off the conversation by asking people about the values and principles we should all expect from a care system.

Baroness Casey of Blackstock said: “For too long, we have been stuck in the same cycle: crisis, promises of reform, another review, and then retreat, while the people who need care, and their families, bear the brunt.

“Fixing adult social care is about far more than money. People are already paying for failure through council tax, pressure on the NHS, their savings, giving up work, and the forced sale of their homes.

“The choice is whether we keep putting money into a system that is unfair, unpredictable and broken, or have an honest conversation about how to build something better.

“That is why we need a public conversation on care that tackles the tough questions. It’s only by facing up to this problem together that we can fix social care once and for all.”

Dedicated specialist support for families affected by childhood dementia

Scotland has taken an ‘important step forward’ in recognising childhood dementia by funding specialist support for families affected by it, Health Secretary Neil Gray has said.

The Scottish Government is providing £118,873 to Alzheimer Scotland to support the employment of two childhood dementia development officers – the first country in the United Kingdom to fund this kind of dedicated support.

The development officers will be responsible to raising awareness of childhood dementia, developing understanding amongst professionals, and ensuring a support network is in place for families affected by it.

Childhood dementia is a term used to describe a range of rare, inherited conditions that affect children and young people. Often life-limiting, it can lead to symptoms more commonly associated with adult dementia – including loss of speech, memory, mobility and the ability to carry out everyday tasks.

Mr Gray said: “My sympathies go out to any young people and families affected by childhood dementia.

“Childhood dementia may still be considered rare but for many it can be life-limiting. That’s why we’re doing all we can to maximise life expectancy and to ensure families have access to the support and care they need.

“The First Minister and I recently met with campaigners and families living with childhood dementia. I thank them for sharing their experiences and that meeting had a profound impact on us.

“That’s why I’m pleased we have become the first country in the United Kingdom to provide specialised support, through Alzheimer Scotland, for childhood dementia. It’s an important step forward in recognising the impact of childhood dementia in Scotland and providing the care and advice to those who need it.”

Improving social care pay and conditions

Collective bargaining arrangements introduced

A new voluntary social care bargaining body will help improve pay and conditions for more than 110,000 workers.

It will provide a forum for trade unions and care providers to negotiate better wages and wider terms and conditions for workers delivering adult social care services commissioned by local government. Arrangements will be extended to other commissioned services, such as children’s social care, in line with the Scottish Government’s commitment to fair work.

It will be established by the Scottish Government and partners, in response to requests from trades unions, and will begin negotiating in 2026, with deals implemented from 2027-28.

In addition, the Scottish Government is taking immediate action to improve conditions for workers delivering commissioned services in the private, voluntary, and independent sector, including:

funding an increase in maternity and paternity entitlements to bring them in line with that of staff employed directly by local government; and
funding Protecting Vulnerable Groups (PVG) checks for workers.

Minister for Social Care and Mental Wellbeing, Tom Arthur, said: “Social care workers provide essential, skilled support to the people we love, often in demanding and emotionally challenging circumstances. They deserve pay and conditions that reflect that.

“Fairer working conditions are essential to making social care the attractive and rewarding career which it should be. I thank trade unions and provider representatives for their positive engagement on this issue and look forward to close cooperation with them as we deliver sectoral bargaining.

“The steps we are taking today, with partners, deliver on our commitments and mark a major milestone in building a social care sector which we value, which we can be proud of – and that any of us may one day depend on.”

Supporting people with complex care needs

New plan to help people live in their own communities

Almost 400 people with learning disabilities and complex support needs will benefit from £20 million of funding to implement the Coming Home Action Plan, which sets out measures to ensure tailored support and housing close to home, family and friends.

This will fund bespoke support, home adaptations, equipment and technology to enable people to return to their communities rather than spending longer periods in hospital than necessary or living in supported accommodation far from home.

Minister for Social Care and Mental Wellbeing Tom Arthur said: “Every day spent unnecessarily in hospital is time away from someone’s community, family and friends. We cannot allow people to spend longer in hospital than they need to or to stay far from home just because they have more intensive support needs.

“We are beginning to see progress. The latest data shows that fewer people are delayed in hospital or placed in care settings far from home – but there is more to do.

“I am pleased to see this £20 million funding bringing total investment in delivering the Coming Home agenda to £40 million since 2021. I thank Dr Anne MacDonald and partners for their commitment. Real change is delivered locally and this Action Plan, alongside additional investment, provides a strong framework for that.”

Cllr Paul Kelly, COSLA Spokesperson for Health and Social Care said: “We recognise the vital importance of ensuring that people with learning disabilities and complex needs spend no more time away from home than is absolutely necessary. COSLA remains fully committed to delivering the Coming Home Action Plan and to improving outcomes for the individuals and families we all serve.

“We have worked closely with the Scottish Government, Local Government, Integration Authorities, the NHS and Third Sector partners to develop the Action Plan and set out how we will jointly address these long standing issues. I am grateful for the significant commitment and time that all partners have invested in producing the Plan, which is published today. We now need to maintain that drive and collective focus as we move into delivery.

“Sustained, additional investment across the whole system will be crucial to ensuring that people with learning disabilities and complex needs can return home as quickly as possible.”

Dr Anne MacDonald, Chair of the Coming Home Short Life Working Group, said: “I’d like to thank colleagues across the sector for all their input to developing this Action Plan, which we hope will make a real difference to the lives of people with learning disabilities and complex support needs.

“The Action Plan is focused on changes that will support people to live well in their local communities, to have choice and control about where they live, and to have their human rights upheld.”

Coming Home Action Plan

Easy Reader Summary

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Scotland needs to stop centralising care and start trusting councils

WHEN we talk health and social care in Scotland, the debate tends to orbit big numbers and long-term policy frameworks (writes Councillor PAUL KELLY, COSLA Spokesperson for Health and Social Care) .

But from where I sit, speaking to councils and communities every day, the reality is far more immediate. It’s about people waiting longer for help, care workers stretched too thin, and a system close to burnout.

The £750 million COSLA is calling for isn’t a throwaway figure. It’s what’s needed just to stabilise social care and start rebuilding confidence, and right now, integration authorities are staring down a half-billion-pound deficit. That’s not theoretical. It means fewer care packages, longer waits, and more families left in limbo.

We can’t keep papering over the cracks. Care isn’t a luxury – it’s the infrastructure that allows people to live with dignity in their homes and communities and if we fail to fund it properly, we’re choosing crisis over prevention every time.

I’ve seen what good looks like, councils across Scotland are proving that when local partners are trusted, empowered and resourced, they deliver. Hospital admissions go down, delayed discharges drop and people get to stay in their homes, with the right support around them.

But the truth is, those successes are happening despite the system, not because of it.

Short sighted one-year budgets force local authorities into short-term firefighting, providers can’t plan, good staff leave for more stable work elsewhere.

The same goes for prevention, everyone talks about it but few fund it. Yet we’ve known since the Christie Commission in 2011 that unless we shift spending upstream, public services will buckle under the weight of demand. Fourteen years later, the shift still hasn’t happened.

The result? Hospitals are under strain, community are services stretched, and the most vulnerable people keep falling through the cracks. But it doesn’t have to be this way.

Across Scotland, local authorities are already delivering services that tackle inequality at the source. From mental health and suicide prevention work to alcohol and drug partnerships, councils are embedded in the places where support makes the most difference, but they’re doing it with one hand tied behind their backs.

The evidence is clear, outcomes improve when decisions are made locally and in partnership with communities, we need government to match that ambition, not with more centralisation, but with trust, flexibility and proper funding at local democracy level.

If we want to get serious about health inequalities, that starts with recognising that most of the determinants of health – housing, transport, education, employment – sit within the remit of local government and you can’t improve population health without improving people’s lives.

So, here’s the ask: fund social care properly. Commit to multi-year budgets, back prevention, and most importantly, hand decision-making power back to local communities.

If we keep waiting for someone in the centre to fix this, we’ll still be having this conversation in ten year’s time, and the system will be in a worse place.

Local government is ready to lead, it just needs the tools to do the job.