UKHSA is working with partners to investigate a Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) outbreak
As of 3 July, there have been a further 13 cases associated with the recent outbreak of STEC O145 since the last update on 27 June. This brings the total number of confirmed cases to 288 in the UK.
All currently confirmed cases had symptom onset dates before 10 June.
Although case reporting rates are continuing to decline, we expect to see an additional small number of cases linked to this outbreak as further samples are referred to us from NHS laboratories and whole genome sequencing is conducted.
Confirmed case totals:
191 in England
62 in Scotland
31 in Wales
4 in Northern Ireland (evidence suggests that they acquired their infection in England)
Based on information from 263 cases to date, 49% were admitted to hospital.
Amy Douglas, Incident Director at UKHSA, said: “It’s encouraging that reported cases are continuing to decline, however we still expect to see a few more cases linked to this outbreak as further samples are referred to us for testing.
“Symptoms of infections with STEC include severe and sometimes bloody diarrhoea, stomach cramps, vomiting and fever. While diarrhoea and vomiting can have a range of causes, there are simple steps you can take to reduce your risk and the risk of infecting others.
“Washing your hands with soap and warm water and using disinfectants to clean surfaces will help stop any further spread of infection. If you are unwell, you should not prepare food for others while unwell and avoid visiting people in hospitals or care homes to avoid passing on the infection in these settings.
“Do not return to work, school or nursery until 48 hours after your symptoms have stopped. If you are concerned about your symptoms, follow NHS.UK guidance on when to seek help and the steps you can take to avoid further spread to family and friends.”
Darren Whitby, Head of Incidents at the Food Standards Agency, said: “The food chain investigation into this outbreak will continue to take account of any new information as it becomes available.
“We will continue to work with the relevant businesses, local authorities and agencies involved to ensure the necessary steps are in place to protect consumers.!
As cases linked to this outbreak are now low and continue to decline, this week’s update (5 July) will be the final weekly report on case numbers unless there is a significant change.
Patrycja Cwalina has completed her accounting degree at Edinburgh Napier University
A new mum has two reasons to celebrate her Edinburgh Napier University graduation – picking up her degree just three weeks after giving birth to her baby daughter!
Student Patrycja Cwalina welcomed her first child, Lydia, into the world on 13 June, and arrived back home in time to discover she had successfully completed her Accounting degree.
Three-week-old Lydia, along with Patrycja’s partner Ryan, was able to celebrate her mum’s achievement at Edinburgh’s Usher Hall today [4 July].
For the 24-year-old, who moved from Lubin in Poland to Edinburgh nearly a decade ago, it marks the end of a whirlwind final year at ENU.
She said: “It was a little bit challenging. Thankfully I didn’t have much morning sickness, but the first three months of my pregnancy did come at the same time as exams!”
“It was stressful, but Lydia made it easy for me.
“I’m so proud of myself that I managed to finish my studies while being pregnant and working.
“I feel like this is my biggest achievement and as hard as it was, I’m really happy I got to experience my final year with my daughter in my womb.
“She gave me strength and I wanted to do the best for her to have better future.”
Patrycja joined hundreds of peers from The Business School at Edinburgh Napier University in celebrating the completion of their studies at the Usher Hall today.
Now she is planning to turn her attention to settling in as a family, with a new graduate job on the horizon.
She added: “I did a placement which led to a job offer, which I’ll start in September.
“That’s what kept me motivated during my final year – that I’d have a few months to enjoy with Lydia, then I can start work.
“I picked Edinburgh Napier because of the enthusiasm of the lecturers – you can tell that they really care about what they’re doing.
Police are appealing for information to help trace 34-year-old Yvonne Thomson missing from Edinburgh.
Yvonne was last seen yesterday (Thursday, 4 July, 2024) in the Crewe Road area in the north of the city.
She is described as having orange hair, with a septum piercing. Yvonne uses a wheelchair.
Inspector Ross Nicol said: “Yvonne was spoken to around 7.20am today but we are growingly increasingly concerned for her welfare and are seeking the help of the public in tracing her.
“Anyone with any information should contact Police Scotland on 101 quoting incident 1409 of Friday, 5 July, 2024.”
The team at the Amazon fulfilment centre in Dunfermline recently volunteered at a children’s hospice in Balloch that provides services for children and families across Scotland.
Children’s Hospices Across Scotland (CHAS) offers a full family support service for babies, children and young people with life-shortening conditions. This includes palliative care, family respite and support through hospices, homecare services and hospital presence.
The Dunfermline Amazon team cemented its long-term support of CHAS by volunteering at the charity’s hospice, Robin House in Balloch. The hospice offers specialist end-of-life and respite care for families and bereavement support. The Amazon team spent the day cleaning up the garden area at the hospice.
The volunteering event is part of a long-standing support programme that Amazon provides for CHAS. Since 2018, Amazon has donated more than £130,000 to CHAS, while Amazon employees have also volunteered at multiple CHAS events.
Jamie Strain, General Manager at the Amazon fulfilment centre in Dunfermline said: “Our friends at CHAS offer outstanding levels of care and a broad spectrum of services to terminally ill children and their families.
“We are so pleased to help them in any way we can, including our most recent time volunteering at Robin House to provide extra pairs of hands for the staff as they support families in impossibly difficult times.”
Natasha Blyth, an employee at the Amazon fulfilment centre in Dunfermline added: “Thank you to CHAS for allowing us to come and volunteer at the wonderful Robin House.
“We were able to see first-hand the invaluable work the staff do to support terminally ill children and their families and build on our great relationship with the staff there.”
Lara MacDonald, Senior Corporate Partnerships Executive at CHAS said: “We were delighted to welcome volunteers from Amazon EDI4 to Robin House where they supported our gardener Maggie for the day.
“Our gardens play a huge part in creating an incredible care experience for children and families during their time spent at the hospice and we are so grateful to the team for giving up their time to lend a hand.
“Every year, around 150 children die in Scotland due to a life-shortening condition. Whenever a child is ill, it has a huge impact on the whole family. We offer specialist support to families to be there for them through their darkest days and provide a safe space for reflection, rest, shared memories and help create moments of joy.
“We are grateful for our long-term partnership with the Dunfermline Amazon team. They have already raised over £130,000 for us and their continuous support helps us to run our services. Thank you to Natasha and the team for spending their time with us and making a difference to our families.”
Amazon supports the communities where it operates and has delivered free computer science and STEM education programmes to more than 700,000 students across the UK through Amazon Future Engineer.
Amazon helps community organisations transport meals and other essentials to families in need through its pro bono logistics programme, Amazon Local Good, including more than seven million healthy breakfasts to children at risk of hunger in partnership with Magic Breakfast.
And through its Multibank initiative, co-founded with former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Amazon has supported more than 200,000 families experiencing poverty, with the donation of more than 2 million surplus essential goods.
Amazon partners with Comic Relief to help people tackle poverty and is the official home of the charity’s iconic Red Nose.
Together with its employees, customers, and partners, Amazon has raised over £4.8 million to fund projects that support people struggling with the cost-of-living crisis and tackle issues such as homelessness, mental health problems, and food insecurity across the UK, and around the world.
Campaigning organisation 38 Degrees said: “This is a momentous election. It is a message from across the UK that people want change. But today is not progress – it is just the chance to deliver it. Labour have won big on a message of change. Now they have to make that change real.
Commenting on the result of the General Election, STUC General Secretary Roz Foyer said: “A new dawn has broken. It cannot be a false one.
“We congratulate Labour on its victory. The new Government can offer hope to workers after 14 years of Tory attacks on our communities, our people and our public services. Through cooperation with the Scottish Government, we can invest in jobs and services.
“The change that the new Prime Minister offered during the campaign must start now. This is day one of his Labour Government. We need decisive action to turn our back on the austerity-driven, public service-slashing, trade union-attacking ways of the Tory past.
“It’s time to rebuild. We will work with the Prime Minister to deliver a progressive Scotland that delivers for working people. He must now deliver for us.”
Responding to the result of the UK general election, David McNeil, SCVO Strategic Director of Development, said:“I would like to offer my congratulations to Keir Starmer on his appointment as Prime Minister.
“There is a pressing need for a more humane politics that puts people and communities first. The new government must move quickly to deliver just that.
“Everyday charities, community organisations and faith groups across Scotland deal with the consequences of decisions made at Westminster – on immigration, social security, employment law, the economy and more.
“Our sector holds a wealth of experience in addressing major societal issues. The knowledge we hold should be seen as an asset to policy and practice design from the outset. This is an opportunity that the new UK government must grasp with both hands.
“It is welcome that, over the weekend, the new Prime Minister and First Minister of Scotland met to commit to improving the relationship between the Scottish and UK Governments. It is our hope that this reset in relations will benefit voluntary organisations across Scotland, and the communities and people that they serve.”
Jonathan Carr-West, Chief Executive, Local Government Information Unit said: “As we witness a change of government, we should be proud of our democracy and grateful to the electoral administrators who make it all happen and to all the candidates, winners and losers, who put themselves up for election.
“We offer special congratulations to all the councillors and council leaders entering parliament.
“We know that local government stands ready to work with the new government and we offer a reminder that national success has local foundations. Labour has set out clear missions for government but these can only be achieved in partnership with local democratic institutions.
“We congratulate the new government and we urge it to set out a new relationship with councils across the country based on genuine collaboration and parity of esteem.”
The Fire Brigade Union said: “Finally, after 14 years of misery, the Tories are gone. Now the work begins to undo the destruction they caused and improve working people’s lives.“
COSLA’s President, Councillor Shona Morrison, has written to the new Prime Minister, Sir Kier Starmer and the Secretary of State for Scotland, Ian Murray, following the announcement of the results of the UK 2024 General Election.
Councillor Morrison said: “Firstly, I would like to extend my congratulations to the new Prime Minister, Sir Kier Starmer. Today I have written to the new Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Scotland outlining some of the key issues faced by our local government members and the communities they represent.
“We will welcome opportunities to work closely with the UK Government and Scottish Government as partners to improve the wellbeing of people in our communities, continue on the vitally important journey towards a just transition to net zero, and ensure that those in our communities facing the most difficult challenges are fully supported by their local services.
“Our membership, Scotland’s 32 Councils, are the closest sphere of government to people in our communities, and deliver essential services for those communities every day.
“The incoming Government must listen to local government, take into account of our concerns and expertise, and work in partnership with us to ensure there is fair funding and empowerment to make the most effective decisions for the people we are elected to represent.”
University of Edinburgh invests further £1 million through Social and Sustainable Capital to enable UK charities and social enterprises to provide homes for service users
The University of Edinburgh has announced further investment of £1 million in a social housing fund. Managed by Social and Sustainable Capital, the SASH II fund loans charities and social enterprises the finance to purchase residential properties, which are then leased to people at risk of homelessness.
The University hopes to build on the success of its previous £1 million investment in the first Social and Sustainable Housing Fund (SASH I), which raised £64.5 million and supported 20 social impact organisations across the UK.
SASH II aims to continue the success of the first fund, helping more organisations to provide decent homes for vulnerable people.
Over £35 million has been committed to date, with The Scottish National Investment Bank investing £15 million for allocation to Scottish organisations.
Life-changing impact across Scotland
The Scottish organisations supported by the SASH I portfolio were Simon Community Scotland, the Positive Steps Partnership and the social enterprise Homes for Good Glasgow.
Using a £5 million loan from SASH I, Simon Community Scotland purchased 15 properties across Edinburgh, providing affordable accommodation for up to 30 vulnerable adults at risk of homelessness.
This has been life-changing for Greig, a tenant of the Simon Community Scotland Homes scheme in Edinburgh. He said, “Having a new home has changed my life in so much of a great way. I’ve got so much freedom to go out walking, to do my artwork – and I feel it’s helping with my mental health as well.
Dundee’s Positive Steps Partnership, is a charity helping ex-offenders and adults suffering drug addiction to transition from prison release to independent living. The £1.8 million investment from SASH I enables the Positive Steps Partnership to purchase 30 properties across Dundee for its service users.
Homes for Good Glasgow is an award-winning social enterprise, using the £3.5 million loan from SASH I to purchase 47 properties in Glasgow and Ayrshire, providing quality rented accommodation for people living with mental health issues, family breakdown and recovery from drug dependency.
Investing for social good
Announced in 2019, the University’s Social Investment Fund has invested £8 million in funds that deliver a social benefit alongside a traditional financial return.
Dave Gorman, Director of Social Responsibility and Sustainability at the University of Edinburgh said, “As values-driven institutions with commitments to social and civic responsibility, universities can use their finances to address social issues, whilst generating a return on investment.
“That has been the mission of our Social Investment Fund. We are delighted to support SASH II, having seen the positive impact that affordable housing can bring to vulnerable people here in our city and across Scotland.“
Mark Bickford, CEO of Social and Sustainable Capital said, “We are looking forward to building on the success of SASH I with fantastic, people-first organisations – all delivering significant social impact.
“We’re pleased to receive further investment from the University of Edinburgh, which demonstrates the potential of universities as social impact investors.
Alongside the University and the Scottish National Investment Bank, investors in SASH II include Better Society Capital, Greater Manchester Combined Authority, the Church of England’s Social Impact Investment Programme, Ceniarth, and Ogelsby Charitable Trust.
Detectives are appealing for witnesses after an assault and robbery which took place in Edinburgh on Wednesday (3 July, 2024).
Around 12.30pm a 74-year-old man was travelling on an electric bike and stopped at traffic lights at the junction of Dalkeith Road and Salisbury Road, near to the Commonwealth Pool.
While he was waiting he was approached by a man who punched him to the head, causing him to fall to the ground.
The man then made off on the victim’s bike, cycling down Dalkeith Road towards Cameron Toll.
The suspect is described as being white, around 6ft tall and of slim build. He was wearing a black balaclava, a black padded jacket, a black tracksuit and black and grey Nike trainers.
The victim did not require hospital treatment.
Detective Sergeant Mike Campbell said: “Extensive enquiries are ongoing into this shocking incident and it is vital that anyone with information which could assist us in identifying the person responsible comes forward.
“The surrounding area was relatively busy at the time and we are asking anyone who either witnessed what happened, or who has private CCTV or dashcam footage which could be of significance, to please get in touch.
“Anyone with information can contact Police Scotland on 101 quoting incident number 1365 of Wednesday, 3 July, 2024. Alternatively you can call Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111.”
Rishi Sunak gave his final speech as Prime Minister on the steps of Downing Street
Good morning, I will shortly be seeing His Majesty the King to offer my resignation as Prime Minister.
To the country, I would like to say, first and foremost, I am sorry.
I have given this job my all. But you have sent a clear signal that the government of the United Kingdom must change …and yours is the only judgement that matters.
I have heard your anger, your disappointment; and I take responsibility for this loss.
To all the Conservative candidates and campaigners who worked tirelessly but without success …I am sorry that we could not deliver what your efforts deserved.
It pains me to think how many good colleagues…who contributed so much to their communities and our country…will now no longer sit in the House of Commons.
I thank them for their hard work, and their service.
Following this result, I will step down as party leader… not immediately, but once the formal arrangements for selecting my successor are in place.
It is important that after 14 years in government the Conservative Party rebuilds…but also that it takes up its crucial role in Opposition professionally and effectively.
When I first stood here as your Prime Minister, I told you the most important task I had was to return stability to our economy.
Inflation is back to target, mortgage rates are falling, and growth has returned. We have enhanced our standing in the world, rebuilding relations with allies… leading global efforts to support Ukraine… and becoming the home of the new generation of transformative technologies.
And our United Kingdom is stronger too: with the Windsor Framework, devolution restored in Northern Ireland, and our Union strengthened.
I’m proud of those achievements.
I believe this country is safer, stronger, and more secure than it was 20 months ago.
And it is more prosperous, fairer, and resilient than it was in 2010.
Whilst he has been my political opponent, Sir Keir Starmer will shortly become our Prime Minister. In this job, his successes will be all our successes, and I wish him and his family well.
Whatever our disagreements in this campaign, he is a decent, public-spirited man, who I respect.
He and his family deserve the very best of our understanding, as they make the huge transition to their new lives behind this door …and as he grapples with this most demanding of jobs in an increasingly unstable world.
I would like to thank my colleagues, my Cabinet, the Civil Service – especially here in Downing Street…the team at Chequers, my staff, CCHQ…but most of all I would like to express my gratitude to my wife Akshata and our beautiful daughters.
I can never thank them enough for the sacrifices they have made so that I might serve our country.
One of the most remarkable things about Britain is just how unremarkable it is that two generations after my grandparents came here with little, I could become Prime Minister…and that I could watch my two young daughters light Diwali candles on the steps in Downing Street.
We must hold true to that idea of who we are… that vision of kindness, decency, and tolerance that has always been the British way.
This is a difficult day, at the end of a number of difficult days. But I leave this job honoured to have been your Prime Minister.
This is the best country in the world and that is thanks entirely to you, the British people … the true source of all our achievements, our strengths, and our greatness.
On 19 March of this year, the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the 36th Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School in London (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s João Sousa).
This was an opportunity for Labour to set out their stall on economic policy, and Rachel Reeves used it as a chance to outline her proposed fiscal rules.
In doing so, she said: “[O]ur fiscal rules differ from the government’s. Their borrowing rule, which targets the overall deficit rather than the current deficit, creates a clear incentive to cut investment that will have long-run benefits for short-term gains.
“I reject that approach, and that is why our borrowing rule targets day-to-day spending. We will prioritise investment within a framework that would get debt falling as a share of GDP over the medium term.”
The borrowing rule currently in place that Rachel Reeves refers to is the supplementary target, which is defined in the Charter for Budget Responsibility, and which says that public sector net borrowing (PSNB) must be below 3% of GDP in the final year of the forecast period that the OBR projects. This is five years into the future, and so the current end is 2028-29 – but whenever the next forecast is, it will roll over to 2029-30.
Labour’s proposal means that will no longer use this rule and will instead make sure that it keeps the current budget in surplus in 2029-30, while maintaining the fiscal mandate – the rule that debt should be falling as a share of GDP in the final year of the forecast. This seems like it would be a clear dividing line in terms of macroeconomic policy.
The current forecasts for net borrowing and the current budget
The current budget deficit is simply defined as net borrowing excluding net investment. So in a formal sense, Rachel Reeves is right – her proposed rule does not formally limit investment. Though neither does the current one: it is perfectly possible for the government to meet the 3% borrowing rule with more or less investment.
Net borrowing is forecast by the OBR to be below 3% in every year of the forecast, and falling in every year. By 2028-29 – the year in which the rule was assessed in March – net borrowing was forecast to be 1.2%, and a full £43 billion lower than it would have had to be for the 3% threshold to be breached.
Chart 1: PSNB forecast and comparison with the borrowing rule
Source: OBR, FAI analysis
This ‘headroom’ appears very large in recent memory, and larger than the headroom any Chancellor left themselves since George Osborne in the 2014 Autumn Statement, and if that were the only constraint, it would mean there was significant room to increase spending borrowing without breaching that rule.
This ‘headroom’ against the 3% borrowing rule is also substantially larger than the one against Rachel Reeves’ favoured rule. But note that the current budget is already forecast to be in surplus by 2028-29 to the tune of £14 billion. This means that the current Government’s plans already meet Rachel Reeves’ rule, and this is likely to remain the case whatever happens. It’s not a particularly demanding rule to meet, mind: the UK ran a current budget surplus in 2018-19 and very small deficits in many other years of the 21st century.
Chart 2: Current budget deficit and comparison with the Labour-proposed current budget rule
Source: OBR, FAI analysis
In fact, on their own, meeting the two is pretty manageable. If these were the only rules, the Government could borrow an additional £30 billion a year for capital spending and still meet both rules – with a historically low cushion, but not dissimilar to Jeremy Hunt’s in the last few events.
The difficulty is in getting debt falling
The reason why the Government is constrained much more than it would appear in the first place is that debt is barely on a falling path in the final year of the forecast. The underlying debt stock only has to rise by just under £9 billion for it to no longer fall – which is a minuscule difference, and also a historically very low level of cushion against economic shocks and forecast uncertainty.
As the chart below illustrates, it’s the debt rule rule that bites in any of the scenarios with additional capital investment – and therefore that is the real constraint on how much additional investment comes from this rule, not the current 3% rule or a hypothetical current budget rule. Changing from the borrowing rule to the ‘borrow-to-invest’ rule does nothing to change the fiscal space available to the Government so long as it remains committed to getting debt on a falling path by the end of the forecast.
Chart 3: Headroom against current and proposed fiscal rules in the OBR’s central forecast and for different scenarios of additional capital spending
Source: OBR, FAI analysis
Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time we saw a government play about with the timing and profile of capital spending to ensure that it increases earlier in the forecast, making it easier for indicators to be hit at the end. And it’s certainly something that we will be keeping an eye out for – not least because that’s the sort of tricks that seem to work in the short run, but actually are incredibly detrimental to the stability that Rachel Reeves claims she wants to instil.
Reading between the lines – could Labour be trying to wrest some fiscal room for manoeuvre?
It’s worth circling back to Rachel Reeves’ statement about the fiscal rules, both in what it says and what it doesn’t say.
It’s obvious what the current budget rule will be, which is for it to be in surplus. It’s less immediately clear that the debt metric used will be PSND ex BoE – the current metric chosen by Jeremy Hunt.
The choice of PSND ex BoE – or ‘underlying’ debt, as it’s often called by the Treasury – means that it creates an artificial barrier within the public sector in the National Accounts. For a large part of the 2010s, during expansions in quantitative easing, this benefitted the Treasury – it was much easier to get ‘underlying’ debt down by excluding the effects of the Bank’s policy.
Chart 4: PSND and PSND ex BoE as a share of GDP
Source: ONS
But that is no longer the case. With higher interest rate losses accumulating with quantitative tightening and the Treasury indemnifying the Bank for those losses through capital transfers, ‘underlying’ debt is now rising much faster than PSND.
PSND looks through these artificial intra-public sector boundaries, ignoring whether the Bank or the Treasury holds these liabilities – both are ultimately arms of the government, and therefore what matters is whether they reside in the public or private sector.
The situation regarding headroom against getting PSND falling as a share of GDP in the final year of the forecast is much healthier. As the chart below shows, an additional £20 billion in capital spending per year would see the PSND/GDP being met with roughly the same headroom that the ‘underlying’ debt rule is met currently.
Chart 5: Headroom against current/proposed fiscal rules and PSND falling in the OBR’s central forecast and for different scenarios of additional capital spending
Source: OBR, FAI analysis
Was Rachel Reeves leaving herself some room for this by not mentioned underlying debt anywhere in the Mais Lecture?
Yes, it’s a slightly different metric, but one that arguably is a better indicator of the state of the public finances – and a Chancellor would have no better time to institute this than at the start of a new Parliament with a change in the political weather.
