Prime Minister to create ‘smokefree generation’ 

UK Government to introduce ‘historic’ new law to protect future generations of young people from the harms of smoking

  • Government to introduce historic new law to protect future generations of young people from the harms of smoking.
  • Smoking is the UK’s biggest preventable killer – causing around 1 in 4 cancer deaths and 64,000 in England alone – costing the economy and wider society £17 billion each year.
  • Move would be the most significant public health intervention in a generation, saving tens of thousands of lives and saving the NHS billions of pounds. 
  • Further crackdown on youth vaping will see government consult on restricting disposable vapes and regulating flavours and packaging to reduce their appeal to children. 

The Westminster government is set to introduce a new law to stop children who turn 14 this year or younger from ever legally being sold cigarettes in England, in a bid to create the first ‘smokefree generation’. 

Proposed new legislation will make it an offence for anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 to be sold tobacco products – effectively raising the smoking age by a year each year until it applies to the whole population. This has the potential to phase out smoking in young people almost completely as early as 2040.

Smoking is highly addictive, with 4 in 5 smokers starting before the age of 20 and remaining addicted for the rest of their lives. By stopping young people from ever starting to smoke, the government will protect an entire generation of young people from the harms of smoking as they grow older. 

Smoking is the UK’s biggest preventable killer – causing around 1 in 4 cancer deaths and leading to 64,000 deaths per year in England. It puts huge pressure on the NHS, with almost one hospital admission every minute attributable to smoking and up to 75,000 GP appointments each month taken up by smoking-related illness. 

It is also one of the biggest drivers of health inequalities across the country – deaths from smoking are more than two times higher in the most deprived local authorities, where more people smoke, compared to the most affluent. Smoking rates in pregnancy also vary hugely, with as many as 20% of pregnant women smoking in some parts of the country – increasing the chance of stillbirth by almost 50%. 

Smoking also costs the economy £17 billion a year, through smoking related lost earnings, unemployment, early deaths and costs to the NHS. 

These changes amount to one of the most significant public health interventions by the government in a generation. If the government does not act, the independent review published in 2022 estimated that nearly half a million people will die from smoking by 2030. 

More broadly it is expected to mean up to 1.7 million fewer people smoke by 2075 – saving tens of thousands of lives, saving the health and care system billions of pounds and boosting the economy by up to £85 billion by 2075. It would also avoid up to 115,000 cases of strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and other lung diseases.

Smoking will not be criminalised, and our phased approach means anyone who can legally buy cigarettes now will not be prevented from doing so in future.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “No parent ever wants their child to start smoking. It is a deadly habit – killing tens of thousands of people and costing our NHS billions each year, while also being hugely detrimental to our productivity as a country.  

“I want to build a better and brighter future for our children, so that’s why I want to stamp out smoking for good. These changes will mean our kids will never be able to buy a cigarette, preventing them getting hooked and protecting their health both now and in the future.”

Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer, said: Smoking damages many lives. It causes stillbirths, asthma in children, heart disease, stroke and dementia in addition to causing most lung cancer and increasing risk of many other cancers. 

“Becoming addicted to cigarettes in early life is one of the worst things that can happen for future health. Preventing people becoming addicted to smoking, and helping those who smoke to quit are two of the most important measures we can take to improve health.”

Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay said: “Smoking kills, places a huge burden on the NHS and costs the economy billions every year. 

“Through this landmark step we will protect our children, grandchildren and the health service from the dangers of smoking long into the future.

“And while vaping is an effective tool for adults quitting smoking, we are determined to tackle the concerning surge in children vaping, driven by marketing and flavouring which appears to specifically target young people.”

The government has also announced a further major crackdown on youth vaping, by announcing an intention to consult on plans to reduce the appeal and availability of vapes to children. 

Vaping is rightly used by adults as a tool to quit smoking, but the health advice is clear – if you don’t smoke, don’t vape and children should never vape. It is already illegal for children to vape but in a worrying trend, youth vaping has tripled in the last three years, and more children now vape than smoke. 

To ensure we get the balance right between protecting our children and supporting adult smokers to quit the government will bring forward a consultation.

The consultation will look at:

  • Restricting the flavours and descriptions of vapes so that vape flavours are no longer targeted at children – we want to ensure this is done in a way that continues to support adult smokers to switch.
  • Regulating point of sale displays in retail outlets so that vapes are kept out of sight from children and away from products that appeal to them, such as sweets.
  • Regulating vape packaging and product presentation, ensuring that neither the device nor its packaging is targeted to children.
  • Restricting the sale of disposable vapes, which are clearly linked to the rise in vaping in children. These products are not only attractive to children but also incredibly harmful to the environment.

We will also close loopholes in the law which allow children to get free samples and buy non-nicotine vapes.

Enforcement activity will also be strengthened, with an investment of £30 million to support agencies such as local trading standards, HMRC and Border Force to take action to stop underage sales and tackle the import of illicit tobacco and vaping products at the border.  

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS National Medical Director, said: “Smoking is the single biggest cause of preventable death and costs the NHS billions of pounds each year. Almost every minute of every day someone is admitted to hospital because of smoking.

“This is a momentous public health intervention and we welcome the government’s bold and ambitious action which will lead to longer and healthier lives. A smokefree generation will relieve an enormous burden on our NHS. 

“Stop smoking services help hundreds of thousands of people every year quit for good. With double the funding – now £140 million – even more people will be able to access this free service to kick the habit once and for all.”

Cancer Research UK’s Chief Executive, Michelle Mitchell OBE, said: “Raising the age of sale on tobacco products is a critical step on the road to creating the first ever smokefree generation.

“The Prime Minister deserves great credit for putting the health of its citizens ahead of the interests of the tobacco lobby. Investing more in stop smoking services is essential for the nation.

“Smoking places huge pressure on the NHS and the economy – with over 500,000 hospital admissions every year in England attributable to smoking. 

“We will support the UK Government to quickly implement legislation to raise the age of sale, alongside their investment of more money in stop smoking services.”

Professor Sir Nilesh Samani, Medical Director of the British Heart Foundation, said: “Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, such as heart attacks and strokes, needlessly taking many lives prematurely. 

“We welcome this important initiative from the Prime Minister to limit its damage to the health and well-being of our nation.”

Deborah Arnott, Chief Executive of Action on Smoking and Health, said: “The Prime Minister has today announced an unprecedented set of measures to protect the next generation and hasten the day when smoking is obsolete. 

“Children are four times as likely to start smoking if they grow up with smokers, and once they do it’s highly addictive and difficult to quit. 

“The twin track approach of raising the age of sale and tougher enforcement to stop young people starting, matched by substantial additional funding to motivate addicted smokers to quit and provide them with the support they need to succeed, will help get us on track to a smokefree future. 

“We look forward to the day when smoking is no longer responsible for avoidable ill health and perinatal mortality in babies and young children, nor the leading cause of premature death in adults.”

The government will also continue to drive forward its agenda to support current smokers to quit for good, by:

  • More than doubling the current funding for stop smoking services, investing an additional £70 million a year to expand locally delivered and cost-effective services. This will support around 360,000 people to quit smoking;
  • Providing an additional £5 million this year and then £15 million a year thereafter to fund national tobacco marketing campaigns to explain the changes, the benefits of quitting and support available; 
  • Rolling out a new national ‘swap to stop’ scheme – supporting 1 million smokers to swap cigarettes for vapes – the first national scheme of its kind in the world.

It comes on top of previous interventions such as the introduction of plain packaging on tobacco products, raising the age of sale from 16 to 18 and banning smoking in public places – all of which have had a significant impact on smoking rates.

In particular, raising the age of sale reduced the prevalence of smoking among 16/17-year-olds by 30%.

Overall, the number of people who smoke has reduced by two thirds since 1974, when smoking was at its peak.

Dr Camilla Kingdon, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said: As a children’s doctor, I am in no doubt that both smoking and vaping are terrible for the health of babies, children and young people. 

“The prime minister’s announcement is hugely welcome.”

Dr Jeanette Dickson, Chair of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, said: “The Chair of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges welcomes the Prime Minister’s bold announcement to effectively end smoking in the UK.

“The damage done by smoking affects everyone, from unborn babies through to our oldest family members.  The best way to prevent these harms is to reduce and ultimately bring an end to smoking in the UK.”

Professor Kamila Hawthorne MBE, GP, said: “As a GP of 35 years’ standing, I have seen the terrible irreversible damage that smoking does to health.

“It is much easier to never have started smoking, than trying to stop once a habit has formed. Opportunities to smoke must not be available to children, and anything that prevents a smoking habit is worth supporting.”

Tim Mitchell, President of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “Smoking is a major cause of cancer and many other conditions that require surgery, as well as affecting recovery after an operation.

“By reducing the number of people who smoke, these measures will save lives and reduce the need for surgery.”

Dr Sarah Clarke, President of the Royal College of Physicians and Consultant Cardiologist at Royal Papworth Hospital Cambridge, said: I welcome all measures to reduce uptake of smoking and make it obsolete once and for all.

“Investment in Public Health messaging and cessation services will all contribute to this. I see too many lives ruined by smoking.”

Health is a devolved issue and the Scottish Government has yet to announce it’s response to Westminster’s initiative.

Call for urgent four nations summit on climate change

Scottish and Welsh Ministers press UK Government on new partnership

The Scottish and Welsh governments have written to the UK Government calling for a new four nations summit on reaching net zero, to be chaired by the independent Climate Change Committee.

The call follows the Prime Minister’s speech on climate change last week.

The letter, co-signed by Scotland’s Net Zero Secretary Mairi McAllan and Wales’ Minister for Climate Change Julie James, highlights the weakness of current arrangements for working with the devolved nations and calls for greater UK collaboration in agreeing the pathway towards the UK’s legally-binding net zero targets.

The two governments propose that the summit be chaired by the independent Climate Change Committee, which acts as a statutory adviser to all four nations.

The full text of the letter to the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations is below:

Rt Hon Michael Gove MP
Secretary of State for Levelling Up,
Housing and Communities
and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations
House of Commons
London
SW1A 0AA

28 September 2023

Dear Michael,

This is a joint letter from myself and Julie James, Minister for Climate Change, Welsh Government.

We write to highlight our disappointment in relation to the Prime Minister’s statement last week (20 September) announcing that the UK Government is significantly changing course on key net zero commitments.

Despite the far-reaching implications of the announcements made – with substantial changes in policy that will impact progress in delivering net zero and have profoundly negative implications for the environment and economy across the UK and further affect the UK’s international reputation – there was no prior engagement with the devolved governments. Given that delivery of the climate ambitions of the four nations of the UK are intrinsically linked, this is deeply unsatisfactory.

In addition, almost a week later, it is hugely frustrating that the UK Government has not provided the level of detail required by such significant announcements. We would urge you to provide this immediately to enable devolved governments to fully assess the implications.

Regarding Scotland, the Scottish Government will separately be writing to the UK Government shortly, in more detail, setting out areas in which progress urgently needs to be clarified. Regarding Wales, the Welsh Government has also separately written to the UK Government, seeking further clarity on the impacts of the recent policy changes on Wales.

Tackling the twin crises of climate change and nature loss is one of the most significant challenges facing people and planet this century and all nations of the UK must work in partnership to complete the net zero journey. Delivering progress on net zero requires urgent action and higher ambition from the UK Government on issues reserved to Westminster to complement the action taken under devolved powers. The Climate Change Committee has been clear that action by the UK Government is important for delivery of climate change targets around the UK, just as action in Scotland and Wales is crucial to UK targets.

Since last week’s process shows the weakness of current arrangements, we are now urging you to establish a new, mutually respectful partnership, with the aim of developing an agreed four nation approach to net zero in a collaborative manner. We therefore invite you to commit, in the first instance, to a high-level summit for a four nation approach and to agree with us that our statutory advisers, the independent Climate Change Committee, be invited to chair the summit.

We are also copying in Katrina Godfrey, Permanent Secretary at the Northern Ireland Department of Agriculture, Environment, and Rural Affairs and the Secretary of State at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

Yours sincerely,

JULIE JAMES, MAIRI MCALLAN

UK Government announces new long-term plan to back motorists

Plan for drivers ‘will sit alongside continued investment in public transport and active travel’

  • new long-term government plan will support drivers and put the brakes on anti-car measures
  • plan will address drivers’ everyday concerns with new measures to keep traffic moving, make parking simpler, and clamp down on overrunning road works
  • guidance to be reviewed on 20mph limits and low traffic neighbourhoods in England to ensure local support, ending blanket imposition of anti-driver policies

Transport Secretary Mark Harper has set out plans to protect drivers from over-zealous traffic enforcement, as part of a long-term government plan to back drivers.  

With 50 million people holding a driving licence in Great Britain and more than 40 million licensed vehicles in the UK, the government’s new plan will support the majority who drive, by keeping motoring costs under control and ensure people have the freedom to drive as they need to in their daily lives.

The measures include reviewing guidance on 20mph speed limits in England to prevent their blanket use in areas where it’s not appropriate and amending guidance on low traffic neighbourhoods to focus on local consent.

As part of the ongoing review into low traffic neighbourhoods, the government will also consider measures for existing anti-driver policies that did not secure local consent. The plans also aim to stop councils implementing so called ‘15-minute cities’, by consulting on ways to prevent schemes which aggressively restrict where people can drive.

Drivers across the country will also soon be able to benefit from new technology to simplify parking payments. The national parking platform pilot will be rolled out nationwide so that drivers can use an app of their choice to pay instead of downloading multiple apps.

In the continued drive to tackle potholes, the government will support councils to introduce more lane rental schemes, where utility companies are required to pay to dig up the busiest roads at peak times. Under the proposals, at least half of the extra money raised from these fees will go directly towards repairing road surfaces.

To further clamp down on overrunning street works, the government will consult on extending fines for repairs which run into weekends and increasing current levels of fixed penalty notices.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “For too long politicians have focused on the short-term decisions with little regard for the long term impact on hardworking families.

“We’ve seen this consistently with people’s freedoms on transport. The clamp down on drivers is an attack on the day to day lives of most people across the UK who rely on cars to get to work or see their families.

“This week the UK government will set out a long-term plan to back drivers, slamming the brakes on anti-car measures across England. We are taking the necessary decision to back the motorists who keep our country moving.”

Transport Secretary Mark Harper said:  “Too often the private car is vilified when it has been one of the most powerful forces for personal freedom and economic growth. That’s why the government is taking the long-term, necessary decision to back the motorists who keep our country moving. 

“We’re introducing a plan to ensure drivers can enjoy smoother journeys, park more easily and no longer face unfair and oppressive traffic enforcement measures.

“Our plan will sit alongside our continued investment in public transport and active travel as part of a package of measures designed to help people travel in the best way that works for them.”

A call for evidence will be launched on options to restrict the ability of local authorities to generate revenue surpluses from traffic offences and over-zealous traffic enforcement, such as yellow-box junctions.

To make life easier for drivers and help traffic flow better, the Department for Transport will strengthen guidance to make sure bus lanes only operate when necessary and a consultation will be launched on motorcycles using bus lanes. Further measures and the full plan will be published in the coming days.

The measures follow the Prime Minister’s new approach to net zero announced last week, which committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035, while supporting people who rely on their cars in their daily lives. The long-term plan to back drivers will protect people who rely on their cars from anti-driver policies.  

The plans also follow the government’s support for drivers by cutting the fuel duty rate by 5p per litre since March 2022, saving the average driver around £100 a year. This is in addition to £5 billion government investment since 2020 to resurface local roads, and new rules to clamp down on utility companies leaving potholes behind after street works.

Self-driving vehicles: Legislation needed, says Commons committee

Westminster’s Transport Committee has published its report on the future of self-driving vehicles (SDVs) and how the Government should approach their introduction to the UK’s roads.

The cross-party Committee makes a number of recommendations on how regulations should be updated to tackle concerns about safety and security, dilemmas over legal liability, as well as infrastructure that will be needed to accommodate their introduction.

Transport Committee Chair Iain Stewart MP said:Thanks to the energy and creativity of the self-driving vehicles sector, the UK has a head start in developing a vision for how SDVs could be introduced. The Government’s strategy is one this Committee broadly welcomes.

“Self-driving vehicles are a great British success story in the making and we have a competitive advantage over many other countries. But all that hard work could be at risk if the Government doesn’t follow through and bring forward a Transport Bill in the next Parliamentary session, before the next general election.  

“Widespread take-up of SDVs faces various hurdles, including public confidence in their safety, security and their potential to have knock-on impacts on other road users. If the Government is going to meet its ambitions for self-driving vehicle deployment these knotty issues need to be addressed.  

“We believe the Government should take a cautious, gradual approach, with SDV technologies only initially introduced in well-defined contexts, or else we risk unintended consequences.”

Government urged to legislate

The Committee heard that current laws for SDVs are archaic and limiting, especially concerning testing and legal liability. Witnesses told us the sector is “crying out” for regulation. We commend the work of the Law Commissions and the Government in devising a new legal framework, Connected & Automated Mobility 2025.

That framework has broad support, albeit with more detail needed in some areas. This makes it disappointing that the Government has not committed to legislating in this Parliament to put this framework in place.

The SDVs sector is a British success story, and the UK has a competitive advantage that we must maintain. The Committee urges Government to pass comprehensive legislation in the next parliamentary session to put in place the robust regulatory framework it promised.

This should cover vehicle approvals, liability for accidents, cybersecurity, and the use of personal data. Failing to do so will do significant and lasting damage both to the UK’s SDVs industry and the country’s reputation as a trailblazer.

Government’s definition of safe ‘too weak and too vague’

While it is widely assumed that SDVs will prove safer than human drivers, this is not a given. The Committee heard that optimistic predictions often rely on SDVs becoming widely used on UK roads, which could be decades away, or assertions about human error that ignore other risks.

Safety must remain the Government’s overriding priority as SDVs encounter real-world complexity. Given this, MPs question the Government’s proposed ‘safety ambition’ – that self-driving vehicles will be “expected to achieve an equivalent level of safety to that of a competent and careful human driver” – believing it is “too weak and too vague”. The Government should set a clearer, more stretching threshold.

Greater automation will reduce time spent driving, leading to concerns that drivers may become less practised and therefore less skilled over time. Conversely, the requirement for drivers to be ready to take manual control of a vehicle means a risk of facing challenging scenarios with little notice.

The Committee recommends that Government should set out a strategy for the future of human driving in a world of SDVs. This should include possible changes to driving tests and a plan to ensure all drivers fully understand SDVs. The Committee also argues this should not impose new responsibilities on other road users and pedestrians or make them less safe.

Cybersecurity, road worthiness and legal liability

SDVs pose cybersecurity risks because of their connected rather than automated capabilities. This poses new dangers, which the law must evolve to meet. A safety-led culture will require wide access to data.

Ensuring SDVs are roadworthy will be more complicated than for conventional vehicles as there is more that can go wrong. Legal liability also becomes more complex as it is shared between owner and vehicle software operators.

This may cause problems for the insurance industry. The Government explained broadly how its new regulatory regime will work but accepted that more thinking was needed about how this will work in practice.  

The Committee urges the Government to take a lead on these issues.

What infrastructure will be needed?

Self-driving vehicles will need well-maintained roads – an issue many road users already feel should be a high priority – as well as signage, nationwide connectivity, and up-to-date digital information about the road network.

While some steps have been taken towards this by the Government and public bodies, these preparations are too siloed and divorced from broader planning.

If the Government is serious about SDVs it should ensure meeting their needs is an integral part of future infrastructure strategy.

How could SDVs be used?

The Committee heard there is a range of possible uses for SDVs, including with HGVs, buses, taxis and private cars. It believes that, in time, SDVs have the potential to improve connectivity and provide significant benefits for safety and productivity in industries such as logistics.

However, the Government must take a cautious, gradual approach with the technology introduced only in well-defined and appropriate contexts. As such, the Committee broadly welcomes the Government’s strategy set out in August 2022.

However, without careful handling, there are concerns that SDVs could worsen congestion and exacerbate inequalities in transport access if, for example, self-driving private hire vehicles are unable to offer the same assistance to disabled people as human-driven ones.

Government must ensure the introduction of SDVs is responsive to the wider population and meets the UK’s transport policy objectives, which are the subject of a separate inquiry by the Transport Committee.

Deal struck on a renewed Fiscal Framework for Scottish Government

  • UK Government will continue to top-up the Scottish Government’s tax revenues, worth £1.4 billion last year, as a benefit of strength and scale of the UK. 
  • Boost to borrowing powers and backing of Barnett formula will build a better future for Scotland and help to grow the economy. 
  • Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen hails a fair and responsible deal in line with the Prime Minister’s economic priorities. 

The UK and Scottish Governments have today reached an agreement on an updated Fiscal Framework. 

Holyrood’s capital borrowing powers will rise in line with inflation, enabling the Scottish Government to invest further in schools, hospitals, roads and other key infrastructure that will help to create better paid jobs and opportunity in Scotland.  

The new deal maintains the Barnett formula, through which the Scottish Government receives over £8 billion more funding each year than if it received the levels of UK Government spending per person elsewhere in the UK. It also updates funding arrangements in relation to court revenues and the Crown Estate.  

Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen, said: “This is a fair and responsible deal that has been arrived at following a serious and proactive offer from the UK Government.  

“We have kept what works and listened to the Scottish Government’s calls for greater certainty and flexibility to deliver for Scotland. 

“The Scottish Government can now use this for greater investment in public services to help the people of Scotland prosper. These are the clear benefits of a United Kingdom that is stronger as a union.” 

The funding arrangements for tax will be continued, with the Scottish Government continuing to keep every penny of devolved Scottish taxes while also receiving an additional contribution from the rest of the UK. 

Under the previous Fiscal Framework, the Scottish Government could borrow £450 million per year within a £3 billion cap, as well as receiving a Barnett-based share of UK Government borrowing. Going forward these amounts will instead rise in line with inflation, which supports additional investment across Scotland and lays the foundations for economic growth. 

The UK Government has listened to calls from the Scottish Government for greater certainty and flexibility to help them manage their Budget and agreed a permanent doubling of the resource borrowing annual limit from £300 million to £600 million.

Limits on how much can be withdrawn from the Scotland Reserve to spend in future years will also be removed. This will boost spending through borrowing by £90 million in 2024/25. All future limits will increase in line with inflation. 

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said:“The renewed Fiscal Framework shows what can be achieved when there is a collaborative focus on delivering economic opportunity and why we are stronger and more prosperous as one United Kingdom.  

“The deal – worth billions of pounds to Scotland over the coming years – builds upon work to support economic growth and provide more high skill jobs, investment and future opportunities for local people, such as the establishment of Investment Zones and Freeports in Scotland. 

“The UK Government knows that high prices are still a huge worry for families. That’s why we’re sticking to our plan to halve inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy.  As well as providing targeted cost of living support, we are directly investing more than £2.4 billion in hundreds of projects across Scotland as we help level up the country.”   

As both governments continue to work together to tackle challenges like the cost of living, an updated Fiscal Framework equips the Scottish Government with the instruments for growth while protecting the wider public finances. 

Scotland’s Deputy First Minister Shona Robison said: “This is a finely balanced agreement that gives us some extra flexibility to deal with unexpected shocks, against a background of continuing widespread concern about the sustainability of UK public finances and while it is a narrower review than we would have liked, I am grateful to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury for reaching this deal.  

“As I set out in the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, we are committed to tackling poverty, building a fair, green and growing economy, and improving our public services to make them fit for the needs of future generations.

“We still face a profoundly challenging situation and will need to make tough choices in the context of a poorly performing UK economy and the constraints of devolution, to ensure finances remain sustainable.”

This morning the UK and Scottish governments have published the long-awaited update to the Fiscal Framework, following the review that has been going on for the last couple of years (writes MAIRI SPOWAGE of the Fraser of Allander Institute).

Since this was due to happen in 2021, we have been waiting for the outcome of this review. For more background, see our blog from late 2021.

For those new to it, the Fiscal Framework sets out the rules for how devolution of tax and social security powers following the Scotland Act 2016 is supposed to work in terms of finances. It sets out the mechanisms by which the Scottish block grant is adjusted to reflect the fact that large amounts of tax and social security powers are now the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament.

It also sets out fiscal flexibilities that the Scottish Government can choose to use in managing these new powers, as new tax and social security powers also come with risks that require to be managed.

In this blog, we set out the main headlines and our initial reaction to the updates.

The mechanism for adjusting the Block Grant will remain permanently as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.

This is one of the most complex areas of the fiscal framework but definitely one of the most significant.

For tax, it sets out the mechanism for working out how much the UK Government has “given up” by devolving a tax to Scotland, given that it is a significant loss in revenue. As, following devolution, there are different policies pursued in rest of UK and Scotland, this is not straightforward. Essentially though, the mechanism agreed in 2016 was to grow the tax at the point of devolution at the rate, per person, that it grows in the rest of the UK. This is known as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.

So, the idea is that if taxes per head grow quicker in Scotland, the Scottish Budget will be better off – conversely, if taxes per head grow more slowly, the Scottish Budget will be worse off.

In 2016, when the fiscal framework was first agreed, the IPC method was the SG’s preference, whereas the UKG preferred the “Comparable Method” (which would generally be worse than the IPC method for the Scottish Budget). SO they agreed to use IPC for the first 5 years and review it in this review published today.

They have now agreed that the IPC method will remain on a permanent basis.

Interestingly, this means that on a permanent basis, the mechanisms for adjusting the block grants for Wales and Scotland will be different, given Wales’s Fiscal Framework uses the Comparable Method, albeit with additional provisions to keep a funding floor in place.

Borrowing Powers for managing forecast error have been increased significantly

Resource borrowing powers to manage forecast error associated with tax and social security powers have been increased from £300m to £600m. This is required because when budgets are set, the tax, social security and block grant adjustment estimates are set on the basis of forecasts from both the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for Budget Responsibility. When the outturn data is available, if there is a discrepancy (which is very likely) then the Scottish Budget has to reconcile these differences.

This will be good news for the Deputy First Minister looking ahead to delivering her first budget in December, given that it was confirmed recently that there will be a large negative reconciliation to reflect income tax receipts in 2021-22 of £390m. As these changes are coming into effect for the 2024-25 budget year, this means she will have more flexibility to borrow to cover this.

All limits, such as resource and capital borrowing powers, will be uprated in line with inflation

When the Fiscal Framework was first agreed, the limits on borrowing for both resource and capital, and the limits for what could be put into the Scotland reserve, were set in cash terms and have been fixed ever since.

This agreement today sets out that the ones that remain will be uprated by inflation (although the exact inflation measure and timing is still to be confirmed), and that the limits on the additions and drawdowns on the Scotland Reserve will also be abolished.

The VAT Assignment can gets kicked down the road again

One thing that is a little disappointing is that there was no final decision on VAT Assignment. See our blog from 2019 to get the background in this.

VAT Assignment was included as part of the Smith Commission powers. The idea was that half of VAT raised in Scotland would be assigned to the Scottish Budget, which would mean, if the Scottish Economy was performing better than the UK as a whole, the budget would be better off, and conversely, if VAT was growing less quickly in Scotland, the budget would be worse off.

However, after almost 10 years, it has become clear that there is no way to estimate VAT in Scotland that is precise enough for this to have budgetary implications. It is a large amount of money (more than £5 billion) so even small fluctuations in how it is estimated can mean changes of hundreds of millions of pounds.

Today, the Governments have agreed to just keep discussing it. We think it is time that everyone admitted it is just not a sensible idea.

We’ll keep digging through the detail of everything published today and will provide more commentary through our weekly update on Friday.

‘Polluters must pay’ says Environment Secretary

Polluters to face unlimited penalties in England and Wales

New laws will scrap the cap on civil penalties and significantly broaden their scope to target a much wider range of environmental offences

Those that pollute the environment will face unlimited penalties under new legislation announced today by the UK government (Wednesday 12 July).

The current limit of £250,000 on variable monetary penalties that the Environment Agency and Natural England can impose directly on operators will be lifted, following a government consultation which received widespread public support.

This will offer regulators a quicker method of enforcement than lengthy and costly criminal prosecutions – although the most serious cases will continue to be taken through criminal proceedings.

New powers will also enable these higher penalties to be levied as a civil sanction for offences under the Environmental Permitting (England and Wales) Regulations 2016, the regime under which the majority of Environment Agency investigations take place.

This will ensure regulators have the right tools to drive compliance across a range of sectors, strengthening enforcement and holding all who hold environmental permits – from energy and water companies to waste operators and incinerators – to greater account.

Environment Secretary Thérèse Coffey said: “Polluters must always pay. We are scrapping the cap on civil penalties and significantly broadening their scope to target a much wider range of offences – from breaches of storm overflow permits to the reckless disposal of hazardous waste.

“It builds on action being taken right across government to stand up for our environment – tackling pollution, protecting delicate ecosystems and enhancing nature.”

Minister for Environmental Quality and Resilience Rebecca Pow said: “By lifting the cap on these sanctions, we are simultaneously toughening our enforcement tools and expanding where regulators can use them.

“This will deliver a proportionate punishment for operators that breach their permits and harm our rivers, seas and precious habitats.

“This was one of the measures set out in our Plan for Water earlier this year. I am proud to say this government has acted swiftly so that this will now be enshrined in law, further strengthening the power of regulators to hold polluters to account.”

Environment Agency Chair Alan Lovell said: “We regularly prosecute companies and individuals through criminal proceedings, but these new powers will allow us to deliver penalties that are quicker and easier to enforce, even though the most serious cases will continue to go to court.

“That should be an important deterrent – boosting compliance across a range of sectors, driving down pollution and safeguarding the ecology and prosperity of our natural world.”

There are clear provisions in the Sentencing Council guidelines that will ensure the level of penalties levied are proportionate to the degree of environmental harm and culpability. These include safeguards to ensure the operator’s ability to pay, the size of the operator, and the degree of responsibility and harm, amongst others – all of which are taken into account when imposing a penalty.

The amendments to legislation will be approved by both Houses of Parliament in due course before coming into force.

As set out in the UK government’s Plan for Water, future environmental fines and penalties from water companies will be re-invested into the government’s new Water Restoration Fund.

This fund will deliver on-the-ground improvements to water quality, and support local groups and community-led schemes which help to protect our waterways. River catchment groups – bringing together local NGOs, councils, government agencies and farmers and working together in catchments across the country – will benefit from this funding.

Inaugural National Drowning Report launched today

The UK National Drowning Report from the Water Safety All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), authored by RLSS UK and supported by the National Water Safety Forum (NWSF), has launched today.

The report will be shared with MPs at Westminster this evening as representatives from the Royal Life Saving Society UK (RLSS UK) to launch the National Drowning Report during their annual Drowning Prevention Week campaign. 

The launch event, sponsored by TWF (The Wetsuit Factory), will see RLSS UK Charity Director, Lee Heard talk through the report findings, highlighting to MPs the recommendations of the report to move forwards with drowning prevention.

Former professional swimmer and Speedo ambassador, Michael Gunning will also be in attendance and is due to speak about his challenges within the aquatics community.

MPs will also have the opportunity to meet with organisations who contributed to the report such as RNLI, Speedo, Water Babies, RoSPA, the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD), the Maritime Coastal Agency (MCA), amongst other key organisations in the industry.

Water Safety APPG chair Giles Watling is due to open the launch event.

The report provides a real picture of accidental drownings in the UK and uses data from the Water Accident Incident Database (WAID) and other data sources to provide the UK Government with evidence backed data on why the approach to drowning prevention needs to be improved. 

Lee said: “We are looking forward to being at Westminster this evening to launch the inaugural National Drowning Report. The report demonstrates not only the great work which is already being done to combat accidental drowning, but provides a clear picture of where improvements can be made. 

“We are hoping to meet with many MPs this evening in a bid to highlight the importance of water safety education in the hope they return to their own constituencies with a plan to begin thinking of how they can improve education and awareness around the UK.”

“The report has been launched during RLSS UK’s Drowning Prevention Week campaign, and therefore helps amplify the messages we have been sharing this week in a bid to reach even more children and their families than ever to provide them with free water safety education ahead of the summer holidays.”

To view the report visit www.rlss.org.uk/national-drowning-report-uk

Drowning Prevention Week provides free resources to families to provide education for all. Visit www.rlss.org.uk/DPW for further information.

No case for routinely offering asylum to claimants from ‘safe’ Albania

A report published today by the Home Affairs Committee has found little evidence to indicate significant numbers of Albanian nationals are at risk in their own country and require asylum in the UK.  

However, some Albanian citizens making asylum claims will have been trafficked, and women are disproportionately at risk from this form of crime. The UK has an obligation to support trafficking victims and they should only be returned to Albania if appropriate safeguards are in place. 

In 2022, more than a quarter of the 45,755 people who crossed the Channel in small boats came from Albania and most claimed asylum. In one year the number of Albanians arriving in the UK by this route had gone from 800 to 12,301, a rise that was both unexpected and unexplained. 

Albania is a safe country, it is not at war and is a candidate country to join the European Union. There is no clear basis for the UK to routinely accept thousands of asylum applications from Albanian citizens, the Committee finds. 

However up to June 2022, 51% of asylum claims from Albania were initially accepted, a rate far higher than many comparable European nations. Nine countries, including Germany, accepted no asylum claims from Albania. The Home Office must explain why the UK’s acceptance rate was so high, particularly compared to other countries. It must also explain why the acceptance rate is substantially higher for women (88%) than for men (13%). 

Maintaining positive relations with the Albanian Government should also be a key priority to ensure that the UK can return irregular migrants and offenders from UK prisons. Politicians, commentators and others should be careful to show restraint in their language and not single out Albania as the sole cause of the UK’s asylum pressures. 

The report focusses on Albania due to the unexpected spike in small boat crossings and asylum claims by Albanian nationals in 2022. However, the Committee finds that it should not be singled out and scapegoated in relation to the UK’s ongoing asylum backlog or overcrowding at immigration processing centres.

The Prime Minister has committed to clearing the backlog by the end of the year and the Home Office needs to set out how it plans to achieve this. The Government should also provide quarterly progress reports, including information on the number of pending claims in the backlog, staffing levels for asylum caseworkers numbers and the number of asylum decisions made per week. 

A key driver of migration from Albania to the UK is economic. People are prepared to make the journey, even in dangerous small boat crossings, for improved job prospects and higher incomes. The desire to come to the UK will continue until Albania become wealthier. 

Improved awareness of work visa programmes would support formalised migration to the economic benefit of the UK and Albania, providing an alternative to people smuggling gangs and reducing the burden on the asylum system. 

Only 325 work visas were granted to Albanian nationals in the first nine months of 2022, with evidence submitted to the inquiry arguing that a perceived difficulty in obtaining work in the UK through legal means could be driving people towards clandestine migration routes.

The Committee finds that more should be done to promote the availability of visas that would fill worker shortages in the UK economy and enable some transfer of wealth back to Albania. This would include short-term or seasonal work in sectors such as construction or agriculture. 

Home Affairs Committee Chair, Dame Diana Johnson MP, said: “Such a substantial sudden increase in asylum claims from a seemingly peaceful country understandably raised concerns.

“While it is important that questions are asked and lessons are learnt, it is clear that the immigration picture is not static and will continue to evolve. New challenges are likely to continue to emerge and it is important that the UK improves its overall approach to asylum, rather than focus on one country. 

“Changes in migration will inevitably place strain on any system, but the Government must do much more to ensure it can better handle these stresses. Most importantly it must improve the speed of decision making and clear the backlog as we set out in our Channel Crossings report in 2022. We expect the Home Office to set out how it plans to achieve this. 

“People will continue to be attracted to the UK from Albania while it continues to offer job opportunities and higher wages. The UK should look at how access to work visa schemes can be improved to fill our skills or staffing gaps, while offering Albanian nationals a route to higher income, benefiting both nations.” 

MP calls for Immigration powers to be devolved to Holyrood

TORIES ‘FAILING’ VULNERABLE UNACCOMPANIED ASYLUM-SEEKING CHILDREN 

Deidre Brock MP will use a House of Commons debate today to call on the UK government to devolve immigration powers to the Scottish Parliament so Scotland can create an asylum system based on fairness and dignity.

Leading a Westminster Hall debate, the Edinburgh North & Leith MP will argue that the Tories are failing to protect vulnerable, unaccompanied children seeking asylum in the UK. 

She will also outline how the Illegal Migration Bill will make the situation even worse for children who have been separated from their parents and how it significantly encroaches on devolved powers.

Commenting, Deidre Brock MP said: “The Tories have utterly failed in their duty to safeguard the wellbeing of vulnerable unaccompanied children seeking safety and refuge in the UK. 

“Hundreds of children have gone missing from Home Office run-hotels, sparking condemnation from the UN that the UK Government is failing in its obligations to prevent the trafficking of children. 

The Illegal Migration Bill will make the situation even worse as the door will be slammed in their faces when they arrive in the UK to seek sanctuary.

“I am proud that Scotland has played its part in welcoming refugees who are desperate to rebuild their lives. However, powers still lie with the UK government and their hostile environment policies. Creating safe and legal routes is the only realistic way to disrupt the business model human traffickers use to exploit already vulnerable people.

“Power over immigration should be devolved to the Scottish Parliament so we can build an immigration system that works for Scotland and an asylum system with compassion and respect.”

New blueprint to protect public from scammers

UK Government launches new strategy to cut fraud, pursue fraudsters and empower the public

A new elite team of specialist investigators will turn the tables on fraudsters as part of the UK Government’s new action to tackle fraud and stop scammers from exploiting people.

The new National Fraud Squad will overhaul how these crimes are investigated by taking a proactive, intelligence-led approach, backed by 400 new specialist investigators. It will work with local forces, international partners and the UK intelligence community to ensure that callous fraud cells who target millions of Brits each day are shut down.

Fraud is now the most common crime in the UK, with 1 in 15 of us falling victim, costing nearly £7 billion a year. With developments in modern technology opening up new avenues for criminals to target victims, 9 in 10 internet users have also encountered online scams.

The Fraud Strategy, unveiled yesterday, marks a step forward in the government’s fight back against scammers, in response to how these crimes have evolved.

New measures will close the routes that scammers use to target victims, including by banning cold calls on all financial products – such as types of insurance or sham crypto currency schemes – and working with Ofcom to use new technology to further clamp down on number ‘spoofing’, so fraudsters cannot impersonate legitimate UK phone numbers.

Government will also ban other devices or methods commonly harnessed by scammers to reach thousands of people at once such as so-called ‘SIM farms’ and review the use of mass texting services to keep these technologies out of the hands of criminals.

To make it easier for victims to report fraud and rebuild confidence that cases are being dealt with properly, a new system, replacing the current Action Fraud service will be up and running within the year.

Backed by a £30 million investment, it will provide a simpler route for reporting fraud online, with reduced waiting times and an online portal to allow victims to get timely updates on the progress of their case.

This improved service will also ensure victims’ reports are acted upon more effectively, using data to ensure we can continue to build intelligence as criminals continue to find new ways to target victims.

Seventy per cent of fraud in the UK either starts overseas or has an international link – to drive forward global efforts to tackle these crimes, the government will work bilaterally to raise fraud as a key priority. The Home Secretary will host the first global fraud summit in the UK to guarantee international collaboration to tackle this threat.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: Scammers ruin lives in seconds, deceiving people in the most despicable ways in order to line their pockets.

“We will take the fight to these fraudsters, wherever they try to hide. By blocking scams at the source, boosting protections for people and bolstering enforcement, we will stop more of these cold-hearted crimes from happening in the first place and make sure justice is done.”

Home Secretary Suella Braverman said: “Fraud is a blight on our country with ruthless criminals scamming the British public out of their hard-earned cash. They exploit people’s trust and steal their life savings, shattering their confidence and leaving them feeling vulnerable.

“It also fuels serious organised crime and terrorism. Meanwhile scammers are adapting, taking advantage of new technology to prey on more victims.

“It is vital we adopt a new approach to this threat. The Fraud Strategy outlines how we will use all levers available to us – through government, law enforcement, industry and international partners – to track down these criminals, intercept their scams and bring them to justice.”

To push the response to fraud at the highest level, a new Anti-Fraud Champion, Anthony Browne MP, has been appointed. He will draw on his considerable experience as the former CEO of the British Banking Association to drive collaboration with industry and represent the UK internationally.

Anti-Fraud Champion, Anthony Browne MP said: “Fraud has grown to be the biggest form of crime in the UK, causing financial and emotional distress to millions of people.

“The tech sector, phone companies and financial services firms must take responsibility for protecting their users by stopping fraud happening in the first place, and work together to design out fraud. We can use the technologies fraudsters are exploiting against them to stop them in their tracks, and I will work with industry to make sure that happens.”

In plans announced yesterday, banks will be allowed to delay payments from being processed for longer to allow for suspicious payments to be investigated, keeping cash out of the hands of fraudsters and stopping more people from falling victim.

We are working with the largest tech companies to make it as simple as possible to report fraud online, whether it be scam adverts or false celebrity endorsements. This means, regardless of which social media platform you are on, you should be able to find the ‘report’ button within a single click, and ‘report fraud or scam’ within another. TikTok and Snapchat already offer this for adverts but have committed to extending to other types of content.

Further measures include:

  • rolling out tailored support to victims at a local level across the whole of England and Wales through the National Economic Crime Victim Care Unit
  • launching an independent review of the challenges in investigating and prosecuting fraud to speed up the justice process, punishing more scammers and ensuring sentences match the severity of the impact on victims
  • deploying the UK intelligence community to identify and disrupt more fraudsters overseas
  • publishing regular data on the volume of fraudulent content hosted on different websites and platforms to incentivise companies to root these out and better protect users – government will launch a consultation on how best to deliver this, including regularity of publications

Wednesday’s plans build on action already taken to step up protections for victims and clamp down on the criminals responsible for these crimes. That includes:

  • legislating to ensure more victims of fraud get their money back, by requiring financial institutions to reimburse victims of authorised fraud
  • making fraud a national priority for police forces, to help ramp up the response at local force level
  • investing £400 million for law enforcement to tackle economic crime, including fraud, over the next 3 years
  • new duties on tech companies through the Online Safety Bill to put systems in place to tackle scams on their platforms and publish annual transparency reports on their work to tackle online harms

Graeme Biggar, Director General of the National Crime Agency, said: “The NCA welcomes the new Fraud Strategy and our role in the National Fraud Squad.

“Through the National Economic Crime Centre, we will drive a proactive intelligence led response, holding fraudsters to account and protecting the public from criminals who operate increasingly online and overseas.

“We want fraudsters to feel the same vulnerability they inflict upon their victims, as we target their infrastructure, expose their identities and bring them to justice.”

Commissioner Angela McLaren from the City of London Police, which is the National Lead Force for fraud, said: “We welcome this strategy and the much-needed investment in policing to deliver against it. 

“Tackling fraud requires a collective effort and we will continue to work with our partners across law enforcement and industry, doing everything in our power to pursue fraudsters and reduce the devastating harm they cause.”