27 million employees to receive largest ever cut to National Insurance on 6 January 2024
On Thursday, the House of Commons debated the National Insurance Contributions (Reduction in Rates) Bill, with the average employee and self-employed set to get an extra £450 a year and £350 a year
£9 billion a year tax cut means that personal taxes on the average salary are set to be lower in the UK than every other major economy.
The National Insurance Contributions (Reduction in Rates) Bill will be debated in the Commons today to implement the largest ever cut to National Insurance from 6 January 2024 – less than six weeks’ time.
The Bill will be debated throughout the day with Members voting on the Bill this evening. It will then go to the Lords in the middle of December before receiving Royal Assent thereafter.
Reducing Class 1 National Insurance from 12 per cent to 10 per cent will reward work, meaning 27 million employees will effectively pay over 15 per cent less on National Insurance.
To the average employee on a salary of £35,400 this will be worth £450 a year, improving living standards and reducing the current combined tax rate of 32% for employees paying the basic rate of tax to 30% – the lowest since the 1980s.
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said: “I’ve been clear from the start that I want to cut taxes. Now, having met our pledge to halve inflation, taxes can be cut in a responsible way that rewards work and helps grow our economy.”
These changes will mean that, for those on average salaries, personal taxes would be lower in the UK than every other G7 country, based on the most recent OECD data.
Taxes for the self-employed will also be cut and reformed. From 6 April 2024, Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will be reduced from 9% to 8% and no self-employed person will have to pay Class 2 NICs, simplifying the tax system and saving the average self-employed person on £28,200 a year £350 in 2024/25.
The changes will see an average full-time nurse on £38,900 receive an annual gain of over £520; an average teacher on £44,300 would receive an additional £630 a year; and a typical self-employed plumber on £34,400 would be £410 better off as a result of these cuts.
Social Justice Secretary writes to DWP on work capability announcements
Changes to work capability assessments announced in the Autumn Statement are ‘deeply concerning’ and could mean people receive less support based on a change of criteria rather than a change in their health, Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville has said.
Writing to DWP Secretary Mel Stride, Ms Somerville highlighted how the Scottish Government has taken a different approach with its social security system being based on treating people with fairness, dignity and respect.
Ms Somerville said: “I remain deeply concerned about the changes to the activities and descriptors for ‘getting about’ for Limited Capability for Work, and the mobilising and substantial risk criteria for limited capability for work-related activity.
“The changes you are proposing, including the extension of the sanctions regime, will have very significant additional impact on some of the most vulnerable people in our communities who need our support most.
“In Scotland, we have taken a different approach to devolved employability support; our services remain voluntary, and we want the support we provide to be seen as an opportunity, not a threat, with fairness, dignity and respect at its heart.
“In delivering our first devolved employability service, Fair Start Scotland, Scottish Government officials had a close working relationship with Job Centre Plus to ensure we were collectively working to provide support for the people of Scotland.”
The proposals in the UK Government’s Back to Work Plan contain a confusing mixture of devolved and reserved responsibilities, which leave us slightly mystified as to exactly how this is all going to work in practice (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE):
In his speech, the Chancellor said: “… last week I announced our Back to Work Plan. We will reform the Fit Note process so that treatment rather than time off work becomes the default.
“We will reform the Work Capability Assessment to reflect greater flexibility and availability of home working after the pandemic. And we will spend £1.3 billion over the next five years to help nearly 700,000 people with health conditions find jobs.
“Over 180,000 more people will be helped through the Universal Support Programme and nearly 500,000 more people will be offered treatment for mental health conditions and employment support.
“Over the forecast period, the OBR judge these measures will more than halve the net flow of people who are signed off work with no work search requirements. At the same time, we will provide a further £1.3 billion of funding to offer extra help to the 300,000 people who have been unemployed for over a year without having sickness or a disability.
“But we will ask for something in return. If after 18 months of intensive support jobseekers have not found a job, we will roll out a programme requiring them to take part in a mandatory work placement to increase their skills and improve their employability. And if they choose not to engage with the work search process for six months, we will close their case and stop their benefits.”
These changes have the potential to impact recipients of Universal Credit. The complication is that UC is reserved, while many elements of employment support – the “extra help” that the Chancellor talks about – is, on the whole, devolved.
Because of this, many of the support mechanisms to help people avoid sanctions in England (& Wales in most cases) generated Barnett consequentials, including:
Restart: expand eligibility and extend the scheme for two years
Mandatory Work Placements: phased rollout
Universal Support: increase to 100,000 starts per year
Talking Therapies: expand access and increase provision
Individual Placement and Support (IPS): expand access
Sanctions: closing claims for disengaged claimants & end of scheme review
Fit Note Reform trial
So, in summary, it looks like the sanctions could be applied in a reserved benefit, following support that may or may not be provided by the Scottish devolved employability system as the Scottish Government could choose to spend the money on something else.
We wait for more details from both the UK & Scottish Governments about how this is going to work in practice.
• The real pay crisis is intensified and now expected to last 20 years. • The politically charged National Insurance cut makes the smallest dent in the worse squeeze on household incomes since the 1950s. • While the Chancellor has enjoyed higher revenues, he has chosen to play austerity politics rather than back public services on the brink – £20 billion has been taken from public services to fund the meagre tax cut. • An ‘Autumn Budget for growth’ has meant the reduced growth in almost every year of the forecast. • ‘Full expensing’ of capital expenditure is a seriously inefficient way to boost the economy. • In spite of all the claims to the contrary, the Tories are still presiding over worst deterioration in public finances for more than 100 years.
Real wage and household disposable income crisis unended
The forecasts published alongside the statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) contained alarming news on real wages. According to the OBR forecasts, real wages are now not set to return to 2008 levels until 2028. The current pay squeeze will hit two decades.
This is a significant downgrade on the March forecast, when wages were returning to 2008 levels by 2026 – two years sooner than it now expects.
The forecast for broader living standards (as measured by real household disposable income per person) remains dire. After already declining in both the 2020/21 and 2022/23 financial years, further falls are expected over the next two.
While in fact a less bad forecast than March, the OBR stress that living standards “are forecast to be 3½ per cent lower in 2024-25 than their pre-pandemic level … this … represents the largest reduction in real living standards since ONS [Office for National Statistics] records began in the 1950s”.
The OBR also put into perspective the 2 per cent cut in National Insurance, reckoning it will boost living standards by around 0.5 per cent at the end of the forecast. This is a minor dent in an immense collapse, and of course as everybody has pointed out only reverses in a small way tax increases at past statements – even on their own terms the government are failing.
Minimum wage
Specifically for those on the minimum wage, the Chancellor has accepted the recommendations of the Low Pay Commission (LPC). This takes the wage floor to £11.44 an hour and extends coverage to everyone aged 21+. This is badly needed and follows pressure from unions and low-pay campaigners. But with prices sky high, and the OBR increasing its inflation forecasts, the minimum wage must be raised to £15 as soon as possible, and extended to all adult workers.
The Low Pay Commission’s recommendations take the minimum wage to 66% of median wages. This is an internationally recognised measure of relative low pay. However, the Chancellor’s claims that he has eliminated low pay should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is a measure of pay distribution which looks at how close low-paid workers are to the median worker. The floor has risen since 2010 but the middle has had no real pay rise over 13 years. The bottom has been catching up, in part, because wages are stagnant for everyone else. The government should set the LPC’s next minimum wage target at 75% of median wages, and this should be delivered alongside a plan for real wage growth for all workers.
Unemployment rise
The OBR has also predicted that unemployment will steadily rise from now until midway through 2025, estimating there will be 275,000 more people in unemployment than at the start of this year. At no point in the OBR forecasts do they predict unemployment will fall below the level at the start of the year.
It is unfair to put it mildly to penalise individuals for an economic climate which is out of their control. The Chancellor decided to support compulsory work placements, but analysis show this punitive policy does not result in an improved employment outcome.
Skills
The Government plans focus largely on reforms coming in for 16-18 year olds, overlooking the skills gap faced by those already in the labour market. On apprenticeships £50m for a 2-year pilot widely misses the mark. In 2021/22, there were approximately 349,200 apprenticeship starts in England – a 31% decline from the pre-Apprenticeship Levy figures of 509,400 starts in 2015/16 (Source: CIPD). The funds are largely directed at male-dominated sectors, according to the Women’s Budget Group. Other measures are recycled and/or small – though the increase to the pitifully low apprenticeship minimum wage is be welcomed.
Little has been done to reverse cuts to adult and further education budgets since 2010, with spending still significantly below where it was when the government took office. Celebrating an uptick in Level 4 apprenticeships just repeats the ‘virtuous cycle’ where those with the highest levels of qualification receive the most investment in their training. Graduates get most of the training as working adults, and almost half of adults from the lowest socio-economic group receive no training at all after leaving school.
Social security
It is a low bar for this Government when they boast that benefits are being uprated in line with September’s rate of inflation, which is standard practice. Though they have severed the link between inflation and the uprating of benefits numerous times since 2010 – which has slashed vital financial support for families.
And while the Local Housing Allowance has been restored to the 30th percentile after it was last frozen in 2020, it will be frozen again and support reduced for ever-increasing rental prices.
There were also significant cuts to benefit entitlements for some people with long term health conditions. They are expected to lose £400 a month compared to current system, and face the threat of sanctions to enter employment.
The rate at which prices are increasing may have slowed, but families are still struggling with the essentials. Over the last two years the cost of energy has increased by 49 percent while food prices have increased by 28 percent.
Energy prices
And energy bills are a glaring omission from this Autumn Statement.
Household energy bills remain 50% higher than they were in the winter of 2021-2022 (approximately £600 higher for an average household). This means that an estimated 6.3 million households are in fuel poverty (spending more than 10% of their income on energy), and more than 1 million households are in extreme fuel poverty (spending 20% or more of their income on energy). (Estimate by Friends of the Earth and National Energy Action as government data are not yet available.)
Energy prices are expected to remain high or increase. Ofgem today raised the domestic energy price cap by 5%, based on wholesale price volatility.
Many employers will also struggle with rising and volatile energy bills. The UK consistently has some of the highest electricity prices for business in Europe, affecting the ability of UK manufacturers to compete internationally. Unions representing manufacturing workers have consistently campaigned alongside employer bodies for measures to rein in excessive and volatile wholesale energy prices – but these issues seem to be far from the list of priorities of the current Government.
Public services and public finances crises continue
As the OBR gently warn, “it is worth dwelling for a moment on something the Chancellor didn’t announce in his Autumn Statement – which is any major change to departmental spending plans despite significantly higher inflation”.
The government has added “just” £5 billion a year in cash terms to departmental budgets, and this means that “the real spending power of these budgets is eroded by around £19 billion” relative to the previous forecast (as on their chart below).
In 2023-24 the increased budget is allocated for public sector pay increases (£3.9 billion for the NHS in 2023-24, and £0.4 and £1.4 billion for other departments in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively). Overall, the OBR have departmental spending growing by 0.9 per cent a year in real terms, down from 1.1 per cent at the March Budget.
Given the government’s political priorities on spending, the OBR stress that unprotected departmental spending is projected to fall by between 2.3 and 4.1 per cent a year in real terms from 2025-26. They wryly observe this (austerity) would “present challenges” and cite the Institute for Government’s recent report finding that “performance in eight out of nine major public services has declined since 2010”. Plainly there is no intention to resolve the crisis in public services and public service recruitment. And ultimately
The public finances overall
For the public finances as a whole, the government has enjoyed a momentary windfall – with less bad than expected growth outturn and higher inflation meaning tax gains (especially with tax thresholds not being uprated) outweighing higher interest and other costs. This has been spent on the NI cut and expensing.
But the Chancellor has made hollow boasts about the improved condition of the public finances. The overall management of the economy for 13 years has meant a disastrous failure for them. Immediately less bad GDP outcomes (next section) have meant marginally improved ratios for this statement. But overall the Conservatives have presided over a huge increase in debt from 65 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 98 per cent of GDP in the current financial year. This is an unprecedented deterioration relative to all economic cycles for more than a century.
Growth crisis unended
At the end of his speech the chancellor proclaimed an “Autumn Statement for Growth”. But nothing announced yesterday changed the bottom line. While the forecasts reflected ONS revisions to GDP data and a less bad than expected 2022, growth over the next two years is revised steeply down. And on a medium term view the OBR warn:
“we have revised DOWN our estimate of the medium-term potential GROWTH rate of the economy to 1.6 per cent, from 1.8 per cent in March” (our emphasis)
Of the onslaught in policy measures, the most prominent was making permanent the full expensing of business capital investment. The Chancellor chose to disregard OBR analysis showing both precursor measures (the super-deduction and temporary full expensing in the March 2021 and March 2023 Budgets) had a lower impact on investment levels than predicted (see OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November 2023, pp 33 – 34).
Introducing full expensing is forecast by the OBR to lead to an increase in business investment of £14 billion between now and 2028-29 and to cost £29.5 bn over the same period. This would appear then to be an extremely inefficient means of increasing business investment, reflecting huge ‘deadweight’ effects, whereby businesses gain generous tax relief on investment that would (likely) have taken place anyway.
The OBR estimates that the measure will raise the capital stock by 0.2 per cent by 2028-29 – a positive, but small, and very costly impact.
Pension saving
The chancellor also had high hopes for the role workers’ £2.5tn of pension savings could play in boosting our flagging economy. But while there were some welcome steps such as setting up a new growth fund through the British Business Bank the plans rely mostly on merging pension schemes in ways that are unlikely to be in the interests of their members, and leaning on funds to put more money into global private equity. These measures were also over shadowed by a poorly thought through proposal to upend the workplace pension system. See our fuller commentary here.
Industrial strategy?
As the Chancellor noted, the lack of long-term certainty over policy decisions (including industrial strategy, taxes, and climate commitments) is a drawback to business decisions to invest. But there was no reassurance in the Autumn Statement that the Government would provide that certainty. While reannouncements of investment commitments to support the automotive, advanced manufacturing, and energy sectors – amounting to £4.5 billion are welcome, this represents only a small proportion of the investment requirements of the Biden-style industrial strategy that the UK needs.
Ending the failure
The failure – as Labour have repeatedly identified – is still a failure of growth. The government need to invest in a stronger economy where growth and fairness go hand in hand, where decent pay means workers spend and businesses produce to meet that spending. A virtuous cycle comes when businesses invest in the face of expansion and optimism, and stronger public services re-enforce the upward dynamic. Fairer and sustainable growth will then support the public finances.
Yet the government continues to take us in the wrong direction. Yesterday’s Autumn Statement showed more strongly than ever why it is time for a change.
Autumn Statement ‘ushers in new era of welfare reform’
A ‘bold new vision for welfare’ backed by nearly £30 billion has been set out by Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride
Millions of people will benefit from next generation of welfare reforms and extra support for those most in need, announced at Autumn Statement
Benefits increased by 6.7% and pensions by 8.5%, maintaining commitment to seeing the country through cost of living pressures
DWP Secretary Mel Stride heralds new era offering a “brighter future for millions”
The plans offer unprecedented employment and health support to help over a million people, while protecting those in most need from cost of living pressures – including raising pensions and benefits and increasing help with housing costs.
Long term decisions to provide unprecedented help for people to move off welfare and into work were at the heart of the Government’s plan for growth set out at the Autumn Statement.
While unemployment has been almost halved since 2010, the £2.5bn Back to Work plan will help thousands of people with disabilities, long-term health conditions and the long-term unemployed, to move into jobs. This comes alongside new guarantees for those on the highest tier of health benefits around keeping benefit support to cushion those who try work.
The transformative employment programme comes as the Government continues to protect the most vulnerable, delivering a Triple Lock-protected boost for pensioners and raising benefits in line with inflation next year, worth £20bn taken together.
The changes mean the full rate of the new State Pension will go up by £17.35 per week, while families on Universal Credit will be on average £470 better off next year.
Around 1.6 million households will also benefit from an increase to the Local Housing Allowance – and will be around £800 a year better off on average. Worth more than £7bn over five years, this commitment will support low-income families in the private rented sector with rent costs and help prevent homelessness.
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Mel Stride MP said: “Work changes lives. With the next generation of welfare reforms, we will help thousands of people to realise their aspirations and move off benefits into work, while continuing to support the most in need.
“We are taking long term decisions that will build a brighter future for millions, offering unprecedented support to open up opportunity and grow the economy, building on our record that has seen almost four million more people in work since 2010.
“Our reforms will remove the barriers to work that we know some people still face, while we’re boosting benefits and pensions to help with cost of living pressures.”
Welfare reforms announced at the Autumn Statement include:
Uprating working age benefits in line with September’s CPI index figure of 6.7%.
Uprating state pensions in line with September’s earnings figure of 8.5%.
Increasing the Local Housing Allowance to cover the 30TH percentile – worth an average of £830 per year.
Expanded jobcentre support including intensive help for those on Universal Credit
Introducing the Chance to Work Guarantee, which will tear down barriers to work for millions of claimants to try work with no fear of reassessment or losing their health benefit top-ups.
Increasing mental health support for jobseekers by expanding NHS Talking Therapies treatment and the Individual Placement and Support programme, supporting almost 500,000 over five years.
Matching 100,000 people per year with existing vacancies and supporting them in that role through Universal Support.
Rolling out WorkWell to support people at risk of falling into long-term unemployment due to sickness or disability.
Reforming the Work Capability Assessment for new health benefit claimants to better reflect the opportunities available in the modern world of work.
Stricter sanctions for people who should be looking for work but aren’t engaging with jobcentre support.
Building on the Mansion House reforms with further steps to improve private pension returns and grow the economy.
Introducing new Government powers to request data from organisations such as banks when accounts are showing signals of fraud and error.
The Government’s ‘radical new plan’ will stem the flow people falling out of work and onto inactivity benefits due to physical or mental health problems, as it takes the long-term decisions to help people realise their dreams to find a job and build a better life.
With this unprecedented level of employment support comes tougher enforcement of sanctions for fit and able people who should be looking for work but aren’t.
Work coaches will use tools to track people’s attendance at jobs fairs and interviews, and close benefit claims of those able to work who have been sanctioned and no longer receiving money after six months.
Taken together, the package will make sure those who are vulnerable or on the lowest incomes are protected, with intensive support to get them back into work, while ensuring fairness to the taxpayer.
Plan for stronger economy will reward hard work, putting £450 back into the pocket of the average worker earning £35,400 a year thanks to National Insurance tax cut from 12% to 10% for 27 million working people from January.
Tax to be cut and simplified for 2 million of the self-employed, abolishing an entire class of NICs and cutting the rate of the NICs top rate from 9% to 8% – with an average total saving of around £350 for someone earning £28,000 a year.
Biggest permanent tax cut in modern British history for businesses will help them invest for less and boost investment by £20 billion per year over the next decade.
Triple lock maintained for pensioners, benefits to rise in line with inflation and Local Housing Allowance increased to continue supporting families with the cost-of-living. Government is making work pay.
National Living Wage rise represents boost of £1,800 to the average annual earnings of a full-time worker, and the Back to Work Plan will help over a million people start, stay, and succeed in work while ensuring tougher consequences for those choosing not to.
Great British pubs, breweries and distillers backed by freezing alcohol duty for six months to August 2024.
Public finances in a better position than in March thanks to government action, with borrowing and debt as a share of the economy down on average across the next five years.
Autumn Statement gets the economy growing, debt falling and helps return inflation to its 2% target – long-term decisions to build a brighter future.
Tax cuts for working people and British business headlined Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ‘Autumn Statement for Growth’ yesterday.
Aimed at building a stronger and more resilient economy, the Chancellor set out a plan to unlock growth and productivity by boosting business investment by £20 billion a year, getting more people into work, and cutting tax for 29 million workers – the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s.
With higher revenues resulting from stronger growth than previously projected and the pledge to halve inflation having been met, the government has stabilised the economy through taking sound decisions. As set out by the Prime Minister this week, the stronger outlook means taxes can now be cut in a serious, responsible way.
To that end, Mr Hunt announced that a 2 percentage point cut to Employee National Insurance from 12% to 10% will come into effect from January 2024.
For the average worker earning £35,400 a year, that amounts to an over £450 annual tax cut – almost immediately improving living standards for millions of people and rewarding hard-work as the government builds an economy for the future.
Taxes for the self-employed will also be cut and reformed. From April 2024, Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will be reduced from 9% to 8% and no self-employed person will have to pay Class 2 NICs, saving the average self-employed person on £28,200 a year £350 in 2024/25.
Taken together, this is a tax cut of over £9 billion per year and represents the largest ever cut to employee and self-employed National Insurance. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says these reductions will lead to an additional 28,000 people entering work.
Cutting National Insurance will not lead to any change in NHS funding or pension payments. Services will remain unchanged and continue to be funded as they are now.
Businesses will also benefit from the biggest business tax cut in modern British history. As signalled at Spring Budget, the Chancellor announced permanent Full Expensing: Invest for Less for those investing in IT equipment, plant, and machinery.
Full Expensing: Invest for Less is an effective permanent tax cut of £11 billion a year, boosting business investment by £14 billion across the forecast period and helping to grow the economy.
With the tax cut now permanent, the UK will continue to have both the lowest headline corporation tax rate in the G7 and the most generous capital allowances in the OECD group of major advanced economies, such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany.
Since the introduction of the super deduction – the predecessor to full expensing – in 2021, investment in the UK has grown the fastest in the G7.
To further ensure that work pays, Mr Hunt confirmed that the National Living Wage will increase by nearly 10% to £11.44 an hour from April 2024, the largest ever cash increase.
The Chancellor also reinforced the new £2.5 billion Back to Work Plan for those with long-term health conditions, disabilities and difficulties finding employment, which includes tough new sanctions for those who can work but choose not to.
The Chancellor also announced that the government will honour its commitment to the triple lock in full, with the state pension to increase by 8.5% in April in what is the second biggest ever cash increase. Universal Credit and other working age benefits will also be boosted by 6.7% in April, in line with September’s inflation figure as is convention.
Further action to help families includes increasing the Local Housing Allowance rate to cover the lowest 30% of rents from April – benefiting 1.6 million households with an average gain of £800 in 2024/25 – and an alcohol duty freeze to 1st August 2024, following common-sense changes of the duty system made possible by Brexit.
Measures today take the government’s total support for the cost-of-living between 2022-25 beyond the £100 billion mark, to an average of £3,700 per household.
Accompanying forecasts by the OBR confirm that today’s measures will make the economy permanently bigger, with growth every year of the forecast period. Borrowing and debt as a share of the economy are lower than in Spring this year and next year, with borrowing also lower on average across the forecast by comparison. They also confirm that inflation is expected to return to target in line with the Prime Minister’s economic priorities.
Tax
With inflation halved and debt forecast to fall, Mr Hunt delivered on the government’s commitment to cut taxes – rewarding and incentivising work as part of its long-term plan to grow the economy.
The main rate of Employee National Insurance will be cut by 2 percentage points from 12% to 10%, coming into effect from January 2024 – delivering the benefit of a tax cut quickly for 27 million workers.
The combined rate of income tax and National Insurance for employees paying the basic rate of tax will therefore fall from 32% to 30% – the lowest combined basic rate since the 1980s.
The rate of Class 4 NICs on all earnings between £12,570 and £50,270 will be cut by 1p, from 9% to 8% from April 2024.
The weekly Class 2 NICs – the flat rate compulsory charge which is currently £3.45 paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – will effectively be abolished, with no-one required to pay from April 2024. Access to contributory benefits will be maintained and those currently paying voluntarily will still be able to do so at the same rate. The cuts to Class 4 and Class 2 together amount to a tax cut of £350 a year for the average self-employed person on £28,200, with around 2 million individuals to benefit.
Business
Measures to back British businesses big and small will remove barriers to investment and help to bridge the productivity gap between the UK and its G7 peers – unlocking £20 billion extra business investment per year over the next decade.
Permanent Full Expensing will create the certainty that businesses need to confidently invest for less. A company can now permanently claim 100% capital allowances on qualifying main rate plant and machinery investments, meaning that for every pound invested its taxes are cut by up to 25p.
A business rates support package worth £4.3 billion over the next 5 years will help high streets and protect those small businesses that are the backbones of communities. This includes a rollover of 75% Retail, Hospitality and Leisure relief for 230,000 properties and a freeze to the small business multiplier, which will protect around 90% of ratepayers for a fourth consecutive year.
Pension reforms, including through establishing a new Growth Fund within the British Business Bank, will help unlock an extra £75 billion of financing for high-growth companies by 2030 while providing an extra £1,000 a year in retirement for the average earner saving from 18.
SMEs will be supported with tougher regulation on late payers to improve prompt payments, the expansion of Made Smarter in Great Britain and continued funding for Help to Grow.
The existing R&D Expenditure Credit and Small and Medium Enterprise Scheme will be merged from April 2024, simplifying the system and boosting innovation in the UK.
The rate at which loss-making companies are taxed within the merged scheme will be reduced from 25% to 19%, and the threshold for additional support for R&D intensive loss-making SMEs will be lowered to 30%, benefiting a further 5,000 SMEs.
The Climate Change Agreement Scheme will be extended, giving energy intensive businesses like steel, ceramics and breweries around £300 million of tax relief every year until 2033 to encourage investment in energy efficiency and support the Net Zero transition.
Work and welfare reform
Mr Hunt set out steps to reward work, help make work pay, and reform welfare in recognition of the need to expand the workforce and get those out of work back into work to deliver growth.
The OBR expect that the measures announced at Autumn Statement will support a further 78,000 people into work by 2028-29, on top of the 110,000 resulting from action taken at Spring Budget.
From 1 April 2024, the National Living Wage will increase by 9.8% to £11.44 an hour for eligible workers. For the first time this will include 21- and 22-year-olds. This represents an increase of over £1,800 to the annual earnings of a full-time worker on the NLW and is expected to benefit over 2.7 million low paid workers.
The government will also substantially increase the National Minimum Wage rates for young people and apprentices: for people aged 18-20 by 14.8% to £8.60 an hour, for 16-17 year olds and apprentices by 21.2% to £6.40 an hour.
The government is reforming the Work Capability Assessment to ensure that people who can work are supported to do so via the welfare system. Changes to the activities and descriptors will better reflect the greater flexibility and reasonable adjustments now available in the world of work, preventing some individuals from being deemed not fit for work and ensuring they will be better supported into employment.
The boosting of four key programmes – NHS Talking Therapies, Individual Placement and Support, Restart and Universal Support – will benefit up to 1.1 million people over the next five years.
The government is exploring reforms of the fit note process to provide individuals whose health affects their ability to work with easy and rapid access to specialised work and health support.
Mandatory work placements will boost skills and employability for those who have not found a job after 18 months of intensive support. Those who choose not to engage with the work search process for six months will have their claims closed and benefits stopped.
Infrastructure and levelling up
The Chancellor unveiled a raft of supply-side measures and funding packages to benefit businesses and local communities.
£4.5 billion of funding for British manufacturers in the high-growth industries of the future, including £960 million earmarked for the Green Industries Growth Accelerator to support clean energy.
The government has published its full response to the Winser review and Connections Action Plan, which will cut grid access times for larger projects by half, halve the time to build major grid upgrades and offer up to £10,000 off electricity bills over 10 years for those living closest to new transmission infrastructure.
Three advanced manufacturing Investment Zones will be established in Greater Manchester, East Midlands, and West Midlands – together generating £3.4 billion of private investment and creating 65,000 high-quality jobs within the next decade.
The Investment Zones programme and freeport tax reliefs will be extended from 5 years to 10 years, and a new £150 million Investment Opportunity Fund will support Investment Zones and Freeports to secure specific business investment opportunities.
Four new devolution deals across England have been agreed. Mayoral deals with Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire, and non-mayoral deals with Lancashire and Cornwall, will boost investment right across the country and deliver on the Prime Minister’s commitment to levelling-up.
£500 million of funding over the next two years will help establish two more Compute innovation centres, supporting the development of artificial intelligence as a growth opportunity for Britain.
The life sciences will also be supported as one of the Chancellor’s key-growth sectors, with £20 million to speed up the development of new dementia treatments coming as part of the government’s full response to the O’Shaughnessy Review of commercial clinical trials in the UK.
To prioritise those who want to invest in the UK’s future, the government has accepted in principle the headline recommendations of Lord Harrington’s review into increasing foreign direct investment. This includes additional resource for the Office for Investment, allowing it to deepen its world-class concierge offer to strategically important investors.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: ““This is an Autumn Statement to support hard working families and grow our country’s economy. It is great news for Scotland.
“The National Insurance cut and increase in the National Living Wage will mean a pay boost for millions of workers right across Scotland. We have honoured the pensions triple lock, meaning pensioners will get a £900 a year increase.
“Vital new support for Scottish businesses will ensure we get growth back into our economy.
“The Chancellor confirmed more than £200 million of new, direct UK Government investment in exciting projects across Scotland, which will create jobs, boost growth and transform communities.
“Plus, there will be an additional £545 million in Barnett Consequentials for the Scottish Government, on top of their record block grant.
“There is a lot to cheer about, not least the duty freeze on spirits to support Scotland’s biggest export industry.”
Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Executive, Confederation of British Industry said:“With tough decisions to be made, the Chancellor was right to prioritise ‘game-changing’ interventions that will fire the economy.
“While the move on National Insurance will give hard-pressed households some much needed breathing room, making full capital expensing a permanent feature of the tax system can be transformational for accelerating growth and improving living standards in the long-term.
“Helping firms to unleash pent-up investment is critical to getting momentum into the economy. Making full expensing permanent will give firms the stability they need to press on with decisions on investment whilst keeping the UK at the top table internationally for investment incentives.
“Moves to speed up planning and grid connectivity should also bolster business confidence to invest in high growth areas like green technologies, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing.”
Eve Williams, General Manager, eBay UK said: “The hundreds of thousands of UK small businesses who use eBay and other online marketplaces will warmly welcome the Chancellor’s cuts in national insurance, more support for the self-employed, as well as the decision to make permanent full expensing.
“There are enormous productivity gains to be had from encouraging the long tail of Britain’s SMEs to invest in existing digital technologies. And given that around half of our online businesses also trade offline, they will benefit hugely from the measures on business rates for retail as well as freezing the business rate multiplier.”
Kate Nicholls, Chief Executive, UKHospitality said:“The Chancellor has brought forward a significant package of business rates measures that will help hospitality businesses across the country. UKHospitality led the calls for Government to extend relief and take action on the multiplier and I’m delighted the Chancellor has acted on our asks.
“Reforms to the planning system to drive quicker approvals will remove a significant barrier to business investment. This type of reform to reward the best performing local planning authorities is exactly the type of change we have been suggesting to drive growth in hospitality.
“We’re also pleased that the Chancellor has acted on our proposal and frozen alcohol duty until August next year to support our supply chain.
“The reduction in National Insurance for employees will put more money in people’s pockets and provide a boost to hospitality in the New Year, often a challenging time for the sector.”
Responding to the freeze in alcohol duty until 1 August 2024
Nuno Teles, Managing Director, Diageo GB said:“Today we raise a glass to the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, who have listened to the industry’s plea for support and decided to back our homegrown sector, that employs so many people across the UK.
“Drinkers and pub-goers across the country now have even more reason to celebrate this festive season. Cheers, Chancellor!”
Responding to the announcement of £7million of funding to tackle antisemitism
Mark Gardiner, Chief Executive, Community Security Trust (CST) said:“The commitment to fund education to tackle antisemitism in universities and schools, alongside the promise to continue the increase in funding for security guarding in the Jewish community, is not just a welcome, concrete contribution to the fight against antisemitism: it sends an important and powerful message to the Jewish community that we have the sympathy and support of government in this struggle.
“We are grateful for the Chancellor for this commitment and we will work with government and communal partners to ensure it is put to effective use.”
Responding to the protection of the Triple lock
Caroline Abrahams, Influencing Director, Age UK said:“We’re pleased and relieved the Government kept its promise to older people to honour the Triple Lock.
“For the 4.2 million older people who recently cut back on food and groceries to make ends meet, having a State Pension that delivers the basics in life is essential.
“Today’s decision also crucially makes is more likely that older people will keep their homes adequately warm this winter, with less fear of facing an energy bill they simply cannot afford to pay come the spring.”
Responding to the support for Veterans
Anna Wright, Chief Executive, the Armed Forces Covenant Fund Trust said: “We are delighted by Chancellor of the Exchequer’s announcement of an additional £10 million to support the Veterans’ Places, People and Pathways programme.
“These projects have delivered significant work already to support our veterans, growing collaborative cross sector working and giving a more seamless interface between statutory and charity or not for profit support.
“They have great potential to help even more veterans, and further develop better, more inclusive local support and better coordination and communication that sustains into the future”
Autumn Statement offers ‘worst case scenario’ for Scotland
Deputy First Minister responds to announcements from Chancellor
The Autumn Statement delivered the ‘worst case scenario’ for Scotland’s finances and failed to live up to the challenges posed by the cost of living and climate crises, Deputy First Minister Shona Robison has said.
The statement failed to deliver the investment needed in services and infrastructure, Ms Robison said. While welcoming the increase in the statutory minimum wage, she said this did not go far enough and fell well short of the Real Living Wage of £12 an hour for 2024-25.
The Deputy First Minister said: ““Today’s Autumn Statement from the UK Government has delivered what is the worst case scenario for Scotland’s finances. Scotland needed a fair deal on investment for infrastructure, public services and pay deals – the UK Government has let Scotland down on every count.
“We needed investment in the services that people rely on and in infrastructure vital to the economy, but the Chancellor’s actions failed to live up to the challenges we are facing as a nation, while not doing enough to help those on the lowest incomes.
“The cut to National Insurance shows the UK Government has the wrong priorities at the wrong time, depriving public services of vital funding. Shockingly, the health funding announced today represents an increase of less than 0.06% to Scotland’s health budget in 2023-24 of £19.138 billion.
“The increases to the state pension and Local Housing Allowance are welcome, but the increase to the minimum wage falls well short of the Real Living Wage. Some of the measures for businesses are also positive, but they come in the face of UK growth having been projected downwards as a result of Brexit and the UK Government’s mismanagement of the economy.
“As global temperatures push ever higher, the Autumn Statement was a chance to fund efforts to cut the UK’s carbon emissions – but it did not. It’s not enough to say they support measures to encourage more renewable energy developments and expand the UK’s electricity grid need. It needs to be matched with funding to actually deliver and help us meet our net zero targets.
“We will now assess the full implications of today’s statement as we develop a Budget that meets the needs of the people of Scotland, in line with our missions of equality, community and opportunity.”
The Scottish Budget will be announced on 19 December.
TUC: Hunt’s Autumn Statement “is a plan for levelling the country down”
Chancellor has confirmed “another round of punishing spending cuts to public services and investment”
Cutting NI won’t make up for “13 continued “years of economic failure on living standards and growth”
Growth forecasts revised down with real wages set to remain below 2008 level until 2028
“The Conservatives have broken Britain. They cannot be trusted to fix it,” says TUC
Commenting on the Autumn Statement, TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “This is not a plan for rebuilding Britain. It’s a plan for levelling the country down.
“At a time when our schools and hospitals are crumbling – the Chancellor has confirmed another round of punishing and undeliverable spending cuts to public services and investment.
“Be in no doubt – if the Tories win the next election, even more austerity is on the way.
“Cutting national insurance won’t make up for 13 continued years of economic failure on wages and living standards.
“Jeremy Hunt has nothing to smile about when working people are on course for a 20-year real wage freeze.
“The Conservatives have broken Britain. They cannot be trusted to fix it.”
Responding to the 2023/24 Autumn Statement, SCVO Chief Executive Anna Fowlie, said: “I share the disappointment of other voluntary sector bodies that this week’s budget Autumn Statement did not recognise the essential services and support of voluntary organisations both in Scotland and across the UK.
“Our sector is a major employer, a partner in delivering public services, and a vital contributor to society and the economy.
“The last few years have been a period of significant change and upheaval for Scottish voluntary organisations, their staff and volunteers, and the people and communities they work with. Rising inflation and the resulting cost-of-living crisis and running costs crisis has strained sector finances and increased demand for the support and services many organisations provide, as demonstrated in our Third Sector Tracker.
“This crisis is not over. We welcome the increase in the National Living Wage which will offer some support to the lowest paid, but to meet the rising cost-of-living this needed to go further, lifting both the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage to at least Real Living Wage.
“Our sector is central to building a stronger economy and offers specialist support to those furthest from the labour market and should be included in these plans.
“To protect our sector’s essential contributions for the future, underfunding and a lack of inflation-based uplifts in grants and contracts needed to be addressed in this statement. As people and communities struggle through the largest reduction in household incomes since records began in the 1950s, our support will be needed more than ever.”
DFM calls for Autumn Statement funding to support key missions
The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement must deliver more funding for public services, net zero and cost of living support instead of cutting taxes, Deputy First Minister Shona Robison has urged.
Ahead of the Scottish Budget next month, the Deputy First Minister called for the Chancellor to provide a funding settlement to support the Scottish Government’s key missions of equality, opportunity and community.
Ms Robison, who is also Finance Secretary, is urging the Chancellor to:
increase the Scottish Government’s capital budget in line with inflation to help deliver vital infrastructure
deliver additional funding across the UK to fund public services and fair public sector pay awards
commit to increasing working-age benefits in line with inflation next year
legislate for an essentials guarantee giving basic necessities to those who need them most
prioritise investment in net zero, including funding for offshore wind projects in Scotland
The Deputy First Minister said: “The UK faces a combination of low growth and high interest rates. The Autumn Statement must learn the lessons from last year’s ‘mini budget’ – it must not compound these problems with ill-timed tax breaks which would place even greater pressure on the public finances.
“The Scottish Government is using the levers available to us to support people through this difficult time. However, it is important that the UK Government uses its full range of reserved powers to address these challenges. With many families continuing to struggle with the cost of living, the Chancellor must not use this statement to cut benefits.
“The Autumn Statement provides an important opportunity for the UK Government to support us to deliver the investment and services that Scotland needs, to demonstrate its commitment to net zero, and to help people and businesses with the economic challenges they face.”
Aye, I’m sure Jeremy Hunt will be hanging on to her every word! -Ed.
“But our message is clear: if you are fit, if you refuse to work, if you are taking taxpayers for a ride – we will take your benefits away.”
Changes are part of the new Back to Work Plan which will help up to 1,100,000 people with long-term health conditions, disabilities or long-term unemployed to look for and stay in work.
Additional support comes alongside tougher sanctions for people who don’t look for work, as part of the next generation of welfare reforms.
Includes exploring reforms of the fit note system, expansion of available treatment and employment support, and formal launch of the WorkWell service to help people start, stay and succeed in work.
The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Mel Stride will unveil their Back to Work Plan– a package of employment focused support that will help people stay healthy, get off benefits and move into work – as part of the Autumn Statement.
Building on the ambitious £7 billion employment package from Spring Budget the Chancellor is using his Autumn Statement to outline a new Back to Work Plan, which will expand the employment support and treatment available and reform the ways that people with disabilities or health conditions interact with the state.
Getting more people into work and ensuring work pays remains a key priority for the government. It is important for growing the UK economy, managing inflation, controlling spending, and improving living standards. Getting more people into good jobs is also good for those individuals and the best route out of poverty.
The government is boosting four key programmes – NHS Talking Therapies, Individual Placement and Support, Restart and Universal Support – to benefit up to 1.1 million people over the next five years and help those with mental or physical health conditions stay in or find work.
The new WorkWell service as announced at Spring Budget and delivered by the Departments for Work and Pensions and Health and Social Care is also being formally launched today and will support almost 60,000 long-term sick or disabled people to start, stay and succeed in work once rolled out in approximately 15 areas across England.
The prospectus that will be launched in the coming weeks will provide information for all Integrated Care Systems across England to develop their localised work and health strategy.
Ministers are also planning to trial reforms to the fit note process to make it easier and quicker for people to get specialised work and health support, with improved triaging and signposting. Since the pandemic the number of people inactive in the UK due to long-term sickness or disability has risen by almost half a million to a record high of 2.6 million, with mental health, musculoskeletal conditions and heart disease being some of the main causes.
Stricter benefit sanctions will also be enforced by the Department for Work and Pensions for people who are able to work but refuse to engage with their Jobcentre or take on work offered to them. Benefit claimants who continue to refuse to engage with the Jobcentre will face having their claim closed. The latest published data shows that there were 300,000 people who had been unemployed for over a year in the three months to July.
The announcement today forms part of wider plans to grow the economy expected in the Autumn Statement on Wednesday 22 November. The Chancellor is set to reveal a raft of changes to get the UK economy growing including getting people back into work.
Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said:“We’re serious about growing our economy and that means we must address the rise in people who aren’t looking for work – especially because we know so many of them want to and with almost a million vacancies in the jobs market the opportunities are there.
“These changes mean there’s help and support for everyone – but for those who refuse it, there are consequences too. Anyone choosing to coast on the hard work of taxpayers will lose their benefits.”
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Mel Stride, said:“We are rolling out the next generation of welfare reforms to help more people start, stay and succeed in work. We know the positive impact work can have, not just on our finances, but our health and wellbeing too.
“So we are expanding the voluntary support for people with health conditions and disabilities, including our flagship Universal Support programme.
“But our message is clear: if you are fit, if you refuse to work, if you are taking taxpayers for a ride – we will take your benefits away.”
The plans announced today set out how the government will tackle long-term unemployment by supporting Universal Credit claimants to find work while strengthening work search requirements for job seekers through all stages of their Universal Credit claim.
As a result of these reforms, no claimant should reach 18 months of unemployment in receipt of their full benefits if they have not taken every reasonable step to comply with Jobcentre support.
The plans to tackle long-term unemployment include:
Testing Additional Jobcentre Support in England and Scotland – testing how intensive support can help claimants into work who remain unemployed or on low earnings after 7 weeks into their Universal Credit claim.
Extending and expanding the Restart scheme in England and Wales for 2 years – expanding tailored, intensive support to people who have been on Universal Credit for more than 6 months rather than 9, helping them to tackle barriers to entering employment through coaching, CV and interview skills, and training. The scheme will be extended for two years until June 2026.
Introducing a claimant review point – Universal Credit claimants who are still unemployed after the 12-month Restart programme will take part in a claimant review point: a new process whereby a work coach will decide what further work search conditions or employment pathways would best support a claimant into work. If a claimant refuses to accept these new conditions without good reason, their Universal Credit claim will be closed.
Rolling out mandatory work placement trials – through the claimant review point, claimants who have not yet moved into work by the end of Restart will be required to accept a job or to undertake time-limited work experience or other intensive activity to improve their employability prospects. Failure to do so at this stage will lead to immediate sanction, with the full removal of the Universal Credit standard allowance.
Stricter sanctions for people who should be looking for work but aren’t – including:
targeting disengaged claimants by closing the claims of individuals on an open-ended sanction for over six months and solely eligible for the Universal Credit standard allowance, ending their access to additional benefits such as free prescriptions and legal aid;
rooting out fraud and error using the government’s Targeted Case Review to review the Universal Credit claims of disengaged claimants on an open-ended sanction for over eight weeks, ensuring they receive the right entitlement;
digital tools to track claimants’ attendance at job fairs and interviews.
Plans set out also include expanding key health and employment programmes, to benefit over half a million people over the next five years and help those with mental health conditions stay in or find work:
NHS Talking Therapies – increasing the number of people benefitting from courses of mental health treatment by an additional 384,000 people over the next five years and increasing the number of sessions available.
NHS Talking Therapies provides evidence based psychological therapies including Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT), for treatment of mild and moderate mental health conditions such as depression and anxiety disorders.
Individual Placement and Support (IPS) – aiming to help an additional 100,000 people with severe mental illness to find and keep jobs over the next five years. IPS is an employment support programme integrated in community mental health services. IPS employment specialists:
Work with people accessing the service to find them employment that matches their aims, interests and skills, and offer continued support once they are in post.
Integrate with the mental health team to support the individual with any issues that affect their work and recovery.
Build relationships with employers to negotiate job opportunities.
Universal Support in England and Wales – matching 100,000 people per year with existing vacancies and supporting them in their new role, an increase on the 50,000 people outlined at Spring Budget, also helping people with disabilities and from vulnerable groups.
Participants will access up to 12 months of personalised ‘place and train’ support. The individual will be supported by a dedicated keyworker who will help the participant find and keep a job, with up to £4,000 of funding available to provide each participant with training, help to manage health conditions or help for employers to make necessary accommodations to the person’s needs.
WorkWell – The service announced at Spring Budget 2023 is being formally launched to Integrated Care Systems across England and will help support people at risk of falling into long-term unemployment due to sickness or disability, through integrated work and health support. Integrated Care Systems across England will be supported to develop a localised work and health strategy, and then services will be provided in approximately 15 pilot areas.
Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Victoria Atkins, said:“We know that tailored work and health support initiatives can help break down the kinds of barriers that can make finding and staying in a job more difficult for those with mental health conditions.
“Backing them with further investment means they’re more widely available, enables personalised help and will get thousands back to work by overcoming any issues that may be preventing them from fulfilling their career potential.”
Kate Shoesmith, Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) Deputy Chief Executive, said:“Today’s announcements will help the Restart scheme keep making a real difference to people’s work and life chances.
“It contributes to efforts to overcome our labour and skills shortages and to further growing our economy. Bringing public and private employment services together is vital to get people into work and not look back.
“Our own award-winning Restart scheme, which sees recruiters work with employability services provider Maximus, has helped place 1700 long-term unemployed people into work since 2021.”
Economic Secretary, Andrew Griffith MP, hailed the crucial role Scotland plays in maintaining the UK’s position as a world leader in financial services as part of a speech given in Edinburgh today.
He also visited Scottish Widows following insurance industry reforms which could unlock over £100 billion of investment in UK infrastructure and green projects, including in Scotland.
Economic Secretary Andrew Griffith was in Edinburgh today, where he hailed the success of Scotland’s financial services sector and the strength of the Union.
Speaking at TheCityUK’s Annual Conference, the minister praised the energy and vitality of Edinburgh, the second biggest financial hub in the UK, with one seventh of Edinburgh’s workers – 50,000 people – employed by the sector.
Mr Griffith then visited life insurance and pensions firm, Scottish Widows, following reforms to regulation (Solvency II), which could unlock over £100 billion of investment in the UK over the next ten years, boosting infrastructure, green growth and Scottish jobs.
Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Andrew Griffith said: ““Scotland’s economy makes a crucial contribution to maintaining the UK’s position as a leading global hub for financial services – with Edinburgh and Glasgow the two largest clusters outside of the City of London.
“Our reforms to Solvency II have the potential to unlock over £100 billion of investment into the UK economy, including in Scotland – in things like infrastructure and sustainable energy.
“We are committed to maintaining the UK’s place as one of the most open and dynamic markets in the world – and will set out further plans for ambitious reform, in the coming weeks.”
Craig Thornton, Chief Investment Officer, Scottish Widows: “By working together the insurance industry, Government and the Prudential Regulation Authority will now be able to unlock a significant investment boost for the UK economy, while continuing to help people secure their financial futures.
“Scottish Widows has already invested around £3bn in social housing projects across the UK, however we will be able to invest billions more in projects which are vital to the growth of the economy and the transition to net zero.
“We’re looking forward to moving on to the next stage of the reform process at pace, which includes working with Government to accelerate the vital work of identifying suitable investment opportunities in the UK which will benefit from the recently announced changes.”
Solvency II is a set of regulations dictating how much financial reserves insurers have to hold against the risks included in their policies. It also dictates how they are required to report these risks to regulators.
The rules were implemented in 2016, and were a compromise between EU member states. Leaving the EU has enabled us to reform these rules to suit the unique features of the UK insurance market.
At the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor announced steps to reform the legislation that would unlock over £100 billion of investment in UK infrastructure, and drive down prices of life insurance products for consumers.
These included:
A 65% reduction in the risk margin for life insurers, and 30% reduction for general insurers. This will help free up capital on insurers balance sheets.
A significant increase in flexibility of the matching adjustment – freeing up money for long-term assets such as infrastructure.
A meaningful reduction in the current reporting and administrative burden on firms, such as doubling the thresholds at which the regime applies.
These steps act as a first course of the Government’s ambitious agenda to seize on our Brexit freedoms and reform our world leading financial services sector, so that it works in the interest of British people and consumers.
They also build on the measures within the Financial Services and Markets Bill – which grants the UK the power to repeal and replace hundreds of pieces of burdensome EU laws; protects access to cash for communities in Scotland; and compensate the victims of APP fraud.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has responded to the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement where the UK Government pledged to restore stability to the economy, protect high-quality public services and build long-term prosperity for the United Kingdom.
Jeremy Hunt outlined a targeted package of support for the most vulnerable, alongside measures to get debt and government borrowing down.
The plan he set out is designed to fight against inflation in the face of unprecedented global pressures brought about by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “We are facing complex global challenges, and the Chancellor has had to take some difficult decisions. By reducing our borrowing, tackling the root causes of inflation and putting our public finances on a stable footing, we will create the economic stability we need for our long-term prosperity.
“As we promised, we have put in place extra support for those who need it most, with support on energy bills and increases in pensions, benefits and the National Living Wage.
“The Scottish Government will receive an additional £1.5 billion, to help support public services in Scotland. We are also putting extra money into two key projects in Scotland. Catapult will help grow our offshore energy capability, and a feasibility study to upgrade the A75 will pave the way for much improved connectivity between Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.”
As a result of Thursday’s tax and spending decisions, the Scottish Government will receive around an additional £1.5 billion over 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Delivering for the people of Scotland, the Chancellor has reconfirmed the UK Government’s commitment to work with the Scottish Government on options to improve the A75, in line with the findings from the Union Connectivity Review.
He also confirmed that funding for the UK’s 9 Catapult innovation centres will increase by 35% compared to the last funding cycle, this includes the offshore renewable catapult in Glasgow.
To protect the most vulnerable from the worst of cost-of-living pressures, the Chancellor announced a package of targeted support worth [£26bn], which includes continued support for rising energy bills. More than eight million households on means-tested benefits will receive a one-off payment of £900 in instalments, with £300 to pensioners and £150 for people on disability benefits.
The Energy Price Guarantee, which is protecting households throughout this winter by capping typical energy bills at £2,500, will continue to provide support from April 2023 with the cap rising to £3,000. With prices forecast to remain elevated throughout next year, this equates to an average of £500 support for households in 2023-24.
Working age benefits will rise by 10.1%, boosting the finances of millions of the poorest people in the UK, and the Triple Lock will be protected, meaning pensioners will also get an inflation-matching rise in the State Pension and the Pension Credit.
The National Living Wage will be increased by 9.7% to £10.42 an hour, giving a full-time worker in Scotland a pay rise of over £1,600 a year, benefitting 160,000 of the lowest paid workers.
The Scottish Government is receiving additional funding at the Autumn Statement for the current Spending Review period to 2024-25, but will be expected to live within these new budgets and support our mission of fiscal discipline.
To improve public finances, from 2025-26 onwards day to day spending will increase by 1% with capital spending held flat in cash terms. This means overall departmental and devolved administration budgets will continue to rise in real terms, although more slowly, increasing by 0.5% each year to 2027-28.
To raise further funds, the Chancellor has introduced tax rises of £25 billion by 2027-28. Based around the principle of fairness, all taxpayers will be asked to contribute but those with the broadest shoulders will be asked to contribute a greater share.
The threshold at which higher earners start to pay the 45p rate will be reduced from £150,000 to £125,140, while Income Tax, Inheritance Tax and National Insurance thresholds will be frozen for a further two years until April 2028.
The Dividend Allowance will be reduced from £2,000 to £1,000 next year, and £500 from April 2024 and the Annual Exempt Amount in capital gains tax will be reduce from £12,300 to £6,000 next year and then to £3,000 from April 2024.
The most profitable with the broadest shoulders will also be asked to bear more of the burden. The threshold for employer National Insurance contributions will be fixed until April 2028, but the Employment Allowance will continue protect 40% of businesses from paying any NICS at all.
In addition, the government is implementing the reforms developed by the OECD and agreed internationally to ensure multinational corporations pay their fair share of tax. And as confirmed last month, the main rate of Corporation Tax will increase to 25% from April 2023.
To ensure businesses making extraordinary profits as a result of high energy prices also pay their fair share, from 1 January 2023 the Energy Profits Levy on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, with the levy remaining in place until the end of March 2028, and a new, temporary 45% levy will be introduced for electricity generators. Together these measures will raise over £55 billion from this year until 2027-28.
To ensure fiscal discipline while providing support for the most vulnerable, the Chancellor has introduced two new fiscal rules, that the UK’s national debt must fall as a share of GDP by the fifth year of a rolling five-year period, and that public sector borrowing in the same year must be below 3% of GDP.
Overall, the Autumn Statement improves public finances by [£55 billion] by 2027-28, and the OBR forecasts both of these rules to be met a year early in 2026-27.
‘They haven’t got a clue’: Edinburgh residents share experiences of the cost of living crisis
As spending cuts worsen, on Budget Day, Greenpeace volunteers hosted a screening of the new short film ‘The Cost of Living’.
This documentary, made by Greenpeace in partnership with the New Economics Foundation, tells the story of volunteers in food banks and community centres in the Rother Valley, Yorkshire. The film depicts how communities hard hit by the cost of living crisis are pulling together to support each other at this difficult time and how properly insulating homes can help tackle the cost of living and climate crises.
On the eve of the autumn statement, the trailer for the film was projected onto Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s house in his Yorkshire constituency to encourage him to address the issues shown in the film.
Greenpeace Edinburgh Local Group, as part of the Warm This Winter Coalition, is campaigning for the cost of living and climate crises to be solved by investing in renewable energy, properly insulating homes and providing people with the skills and training needed to deliver this green energy revolution.
Greenpeace is calling for at least £6 billion to be spent on implementing a national insulation and energy efficiency programme during this parliament. People living in poorly insulated homes will have to pay almost £1,000 more than others on their energy bills this winter.
Data from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition shows that almost a quarter (24.5%) of UK households are currently experiencing fuel poverty.
Around 20 people watched the documentary at the Grassmarket Community Project, one of more than 40 screenings taking place across the UK this winter. The screening was followed by a talk from Greenpeace speaker Issy, and a panel discussion with representatives from local organizations.
The panel was made up of Aditi Jehangir, chair of the Gorgie and Dalry branch of Living Rent, Stuart Bretherton, Energy for All Campaigner at Fuel Poverty Action and Louis Keal, an activist from Just Stop Oil.
After the panel discussion, members of the public were given advice on contacting their local MPs in Edinburgh, Ian Murray, Tommy Sheppard, Deirdre Brock, Joanna Cherry and Christine Jardine, to share how they are being affected by the sharp rise in energy and food prices.
Louis argued that the solution to the crises lies in connecting with one another and ‘finding our people power in a way we never have before,’ while Stuart reiterated the words of one of the film’s interviewees, referring to the government’s understanding of how the crisis is affecting ordinary people: ‘they haven’t got a clue’.
Zoë, a volunteer from Newington, said: ‘The Cost of Living depicts towns in the Rother Valley, but the experience of people living in Edinburgh is very similar. We are facing enormous energy bills, and more and more people are relying on the community to help put food on their table and provide a warm refuge.
“Food banks and community centres are being stretched to the limit as winter approaches. It’s vital that our MPs know how much people are struggling at the moment, but that there are solutions to this problem.
“In this week’s Budget the Government seems to have finally realised that home insulation needs to be done, but not quite how urgently we need to do it. Home insulation will make our homes permanently warmer, and our bills permanently lower, as well as reducing our carbon emissions.
“Almost a quarter of the country is in fuel poverty right now and we need an urgent insulation programme now to fix this. Ministers shouldn’t be waiting another three years to do what should have happened years ago.“
Recent polling conducted by Survation on behalf of Greenpeace shows that 68.8% of people in Scotland have had to make cuts to other spending due to rising energy bills, and 61.8% feel that their standard of living has got worse since the last general election. 83.6% of people in Scotland would support a government programme to install home insulation in their area.
A recent report by Cambridge Econometrics on behalf of Greenpeace UK, highlights how a government backed programme to insulate homes and install heat pumps could inject £6.8 billion into the economy every year and create almost 140,000 new jobs by 2030.
These green home upgrades could provide huge economic and social benefits – including to those on low incomes, older people and People of Colour, who tend to be most exposed to fuel poverty – while slashing bills and carbon emissions.
TUC: ‘we look set to remain trapped in the doom loop of austerity politics’
Tackling inflation is top of the priority list to stop it eating into paycheques and savings, and disrupting business growth plans.
To protect the most vulnerable the Chancellor unveiled £26 billion of support for the cost of living including continued energy support, as well as 10.1% rises in benefits and the State Pension and the largest ever cash increase in the National Living Wage
Necessary and fair tax changes will raise around £25 billion, including an increase in the Energy Profits Levy and a new tax on the extraordinary profits of electricity generators.
Decisions on spending set to save £30 billion whilst NHS and Social Care get access to £8 billion and schools get an additional £2.3billion reflecting people’s priorities.
To deliver prosperity, he’s also committed to infrastructure projects including Sizewell C and Northern Powerhouse Rail, along with protecting the £20billion R&D budget.
The Chancellor has today (Thursday 17th November) announced his Autumn Statement, aiming to restore stability to the economy, protect high-quality public services and build long-term prosperity for the United Kingdom.
Jeremy Hunt outlined a targeted package of support for the most vulnerable, alongside measures to get debt and government borrowing down. The plan he set out is designed to fight inflation in the face of unprecedented global pressures brought about by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said: “There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis. But today with this plan for stability, growth and public services, we will face into the storm. We do so today with British resilience and British compassion.
“Because of the difficult decisions we take in our plan, we strengthen our public finances, bring down inflation and protect jobs.”
To protect the most vulnerable from the worst of cost-of-living pressures, the Chancellor announced a package of targeted support worth £26 billion, which includes continued support for rising energy bills. More than eight million households on means-tested benefits will receive a cost-of-living payment of £900 in instalments, with £300 to pensioners and £150 for people on disability benefits.
The Energy Price Guarantee, which is protecting households throughout this winter by capping typical energy bills at £2,500, will continue to provide support from April 2023 with the cap rising to £3,000. With prices forecast to remain elevated throughout next year, this equates to an average of £500 support for households in 2023-24.
Working age benefits will rise by 10.1%, boosting the finances of millions of the poorest people in the UK, and the Triple Lock will be protected, meaning pensioners will also get a rise in the State Pension and the Pension Credit in line with inflation.
The National Living Wage will be increased by 9.7% to £10.42 an hour, giving a full-time worker a pay rise of over £1,600 a year, benefitting 2 million of the lowest paid workers.
The Chancellor also announced a £13.6 billion package of support for business rates payers in England. To protect businesses from rising inflation the multiplier will be frozen in 2023-24 while relief for 230,000 businesses in retail, hospitality and leisure sectors was also increased from 50% to 75% next year.
To help businesses adjust to the revaluation of their properties, which takes effect from April 2023, the Chancellor announced a £1.6 billion Transitional Relief scheme to cap bill increases for those who will see higher bills.
This limits bill increases for the smallest properties to 5%. Businesses seeing lower bills as a result of the revaluation will benefit from that decrease in full straight away, as the Chancellor abolished downwards transitional reliefs caps. Small businesses who lose eligibility for either Small Business or Rural Rate Relief as a result of the new property revaluations will see their bill increases capped at £50 a month through a new separate scheme worth over £500 million.
To protect high-quality front-line public services, access to funding for the NHS and social care is being increased by up to £8 billion in 2024-25.
This will enable the NHS to take action to improve access to urgent and emergency care, get waiting times down, and will mean double the number of people can be released from hospital into care every day from 2024.
The schools budget will receive £2.3 billion of additional funding in each of 2023-24 and 2024-25, enabling continued investment in high-quality teaching and tutoring and restoring 2010 levels of per pupil funding in real terms.
All other departments will have their Spending Review settlements to 2024-25 honoured in full, with no cash cuts, but will be expected to work more efficiently to live within these and support the government’s mission of fiscal discipline.
To improve public finances, from 2025-26 onwards day to day spending will increase more slowly by 1% above inflation, with capital spending maintained at current levels in cash terms. This means departmental spending will still be £90 billion higher in real terms by 2027-28, compared with 2019-20 while £30 billion of public spending will be saved.
To raise further funds, the Chancellor has introduced tax rises of £25 billion by 2027-28. Based around the principle of fairness, all taxpayers will be asked to contribute but those with the broadest shoulders will be asked to contribute a greater share.
The threshold at which higher earners start to pay the 45p rate will be reduced from £150,000 to £125,140, while Income Tax, Inheritance Tax and National Insurance thresholds will be frozen for a further two years until April 2028. The Dividend Allowance will be reduced from £2,000 to £1,000 next year, and £500 from April 2024 and the Annual Exempt Amount in capital gains tax will be reduced from £12,300 to £6,000 next year and then to £3,000 from April 2024.
The most profitable businesses with the broadest shoulders will also be asked to bear more of the burden. The threshold for employer National Insurance contributions will be fixed until April 2028, but the Employment Allowance will continue to protect 40% of businesses from paying any NICS at all.
In addition, the government is implementing the reforms developed by the OECD and agreed internationally to ensure multinational corporations pay their fair share of tax. And as confirmed last month, the main rate of Corporation Tax will increase to 25% from April 2023.
To ensure businesses making extraordinary profits as a result of high energy prices also pay their fair share, from 1 January 2023 the Energy Profits Levy on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, with the levy remaining in place until the end of March 2028, and a new, temporary 45% levy will be introduced for electricity generators. Together these measures will raise over £55 billion from this year until 2027-28.
To ensure fiscal discipline while providing support for the most vulnerable, the Chancellor has introduced two new fiscal rules, that the UK’s national debt must fall as a share of GDP by the fifth year of a rolling five-year period, and that public sector borrowing in the same year must be below 3% of GDP. Overall, the Autumn Statement improves public finances by £55 billion by 2027-28, and the OBR forecasts both of these rules to be met a year early in 2026-27.
To ensure prosperity in the future, the Chancellor recommitted to the £20 billion R&D budget and made numerous infrastructure commitments. Sizewell C nuclear plant will go ahead, with the EDF contract to be signed at the end of the month, providing reliable, low-carbon power to the equivalent of 6 million homes for over 50 years.
The Chancellor also confirmed commitments to transformative growth plans for our railways including High Speed 2 to Manchester, the Northern Powerhouse Rail core network and East West Rail, along with gigabit broadband rollout.
Plans for the second round of the Levelling Up Fund were confirmed, with at least £1.7 billion to be allocated to priority local infrastructure projects around the UK before the end of the year.
In further efforts to level up the UK, a new Mayor will be elected in Suffolk as part of a devolution deal agreed with Suffolk County Council, and the government is in advanced discussions on mayoral devolution deals with local authorities in Cornwall, Norfolk and the North East of England.
Many of today’s tax and spending decisions apply in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
As a result of decisions that do not apply UK-wide, the Scottish Government will receive around an additional £1.5 billion over 2023-24 and 2024-25, the Welsh Government will receive £1.2 billion and the Northern Ireland Executive will receive £650 million.
As a result of today’s tax and spending decisions, the Scottish Government will receive around an additional £1.5 billion over 2023-24 and 2024-25.
The Chancellor has reconfirmed the UK Government’s commitment to work with the Scottish Government on options to improve the A75, in line with the findings from the Union Connectivity Review.
He also confirmed that funding for the UK’s 9 Catapult innovation centres will increase by 35% compared to the last funding cycle, this includes the offshore renewable catapult in Glasgow.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said:“This Autumn Statement will help deliver economic stability across the UK. We’ve made tough decisions to tackle inflation, but we’re committed to protecting the most vulnerable against the rising cost of living.
“Scottish familieswill receive billions of pounds of UK Government support, such as inflation-matching increases in benefits and the state pension, and the Scottish Government is receiving an additional £1.5 billion over the next two years to help protect vital public services and drive prosperity through the challenging times ahead.”
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “We are facing complex global challenges, and the Chancellor has had to take some difficult decisions. By reducing our borrowing, tackling the root causes of inflation and putting our public finances on a stable footing, we will create the economic stability we need for our long-term prosperity.
“As we promised, we have put in place extra support for those who need it most, with support on energy bills and increases in pensions, benefits and the National Living Wage.
“The Scottish Government will receive an additional £1.5 billion, to help support public services in Scotland. We are also putting extra money into two key projects in Scotland. Catapult will help grow our offshore energy capability, and a feasibility study to upgrade the A75 will pave the way for much improved connectivity between Scotland, Northern Ireland and England.”
COMMENT and REACTION
Households ‘paying a steep price for UK economic mismanagement’ – Swinney
The UK Government’s Autumn Statement fails to address the pressure on devolved budgets to help people with the cost of living crisis, support public services, and finance fair pay offers, according to Deputy First Minister John Swinney.
Reacting to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal announcement, Mr Swinney expressed dismay at his failure to address the impact of inflation on the Scottish Government’s budget, when businesses and households continue to face financial uncertainty and £1 billion in savings have had to be found to help those who need it most.
The Deputy First Minister said: “Today’s statement shows that households across Scotland are paying a steep price for the economic mismanagement of the UK Government, with average household disposable incomes forecast to fall by 7% in real terms according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
“This would erode just under 10 years of growth in living standards, taking them back to levels not seen since 2013-14, meaning they would not recover to pre-pandemic levels until after 2027-28 – a devastating indictment of the UK Government’s management of the economy.
“Inflation is eating away at the Scottish budget, and due to the lack of additional funding in 2022-23 and the financial restrictions of devolution, we have had no choice but to make savings of more than £1 billion.
“I welcome the Chancellor’s decision to increase benefits in line with inflation from next financial year and retain the triple lock on pensions – both measures we have consistently called for. However, the higher energy price cap from April is still unsustainable for many households.
“The proposals may limit the impact for some consumers, but the UK Government needs to carefully consider the affect a £500 rise in energy bills will have on those who are in or at risk of fuel poverty. And there’s still no certainty on how businesses struggling to stay afloat will be supported from April after the Energy Bill Relief Scheme ends.
“The constant U-turns on tax by the UK Government have made planning for the Scottish Budget more challenging this year. We will take time to consider the implications for Scotland before setting out our own plans as part of the normal budget process.
“I am pleased the Chancellor has finally listened to our calls to tax more of the windfall gains in the energy sector, but he should have gone further to remove the poorly targeted investment allowance, which only serves to encourage short-term investment in fossil fuels rather than promoting long-term, sustainable energy solutions.
“This leaves me with the difficult task of setting Scotland’s Budget for 2023-24 with no hope of financial flexibility to make a real difference in the lives of those who need it most.”
HEALTH
Amanda Pritchard, NHS Chief Executive, said:“When the government – and the country – face such a daunting set of challenges, we welcome the chancellor’s decision to prioritise the NHS with funding to address rising cost pressures and help staff deliver the best possible care for patients. This shows the government has been serious about its commitment to prioritise the NHS.
“The NHS is already one of the most efficient health services in the world and we are committed to delivering further efficiencies, with over £5 billion already freed up for reinvestment in patient care this year.
“NHS staff are delivering a huge amount in the face of record demand with 10% more GP appointments than before Covid, an extra 35 million in a year, more support than ever for peoples’ mental health and the highest level of cancer checks while transforming peoples’ lives with innovative treatments such as laser therapy for epilepsy and genetic testing for sick babies and children.
“While I am under no illusions that NHS staff face very testing times ahead, particularly over winter, this settlement should provide sufficient funding for the NHS to fulfil its key priorities. As ever, we will act with determination to ensure every penny of investment delivers for patients.”
SCHOOLS
Leora Cruddas CBE, Chief Executive, Confederation of School Trusts said:“We are delighted that the Government has prioritised schools in the Autumn statement.
“We know economic times are tough. But investment in the education of our children is an investment in our future.
“Schools and school trusts have the talent and expertise to find innovative and cost-effective ways to keep improving education and supporting their local communities, and the announcement today will help them to plan ahead.”
INFLATION
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive, the British Retail Consortium, said: “High inflation remains a major threat to the UK economy and we support the government’s objective of bringing this down.
“Inflation is making people poorer, damaging consumer confidence and holding back demand. It pushes up the costs to businesses which further increases prices for consumers. As the retail industry enters the crucial Christmas period, it is vital that inflation is brought to heel.”
NATIONAL LIVING WAGE
Bryan Sanderson, Chair, Low Pay Commission, said:“The rates announced today include the largest increase to the NLW since its introduction in 2016 and will provide a much-needed pay increase to millions of low-paid workers across the UK, all of whom will be feeling the effects of a sharply rising cost of living.
“For a full-time worker, today’s increase means nearly £150 more per month. The tightness of the labour market and historically high vacancy rates give us confidence that the economy will be able to absorb these increases.
“Businesses also have to navigate these economically uncertain times and by ensuring we remain on the path to achieve our 2024 target, employers will have greater certainty over the forward path. These recommendations have the full support of the business, trade union and academic representatives who make up the Commission.”
BUSINESS RATES – ONLINE SALES TAX
Baldock, CEO, Currys plc, said:“We’re happy that the Treasury listened to our concerns on business rates, and acted quickly.
“I’m also delighted at the ditching of the Online Sales Tax, which would have added costs for consumers and depressed business investment. We will continue to support customers and colleagues through this cost-of-living crisis, keeping prices low, jobs well-paid, and helping everyone enjoy amazing technology.”
James Lowman, Chief Executive, Association of Convenience Stores (ACS) said:“We welcome the freeze of the business rates multiplier for another year. The extension and increase in the retail, hospitality and leisure relief scheme will be warmly welcomed by small business in particular.
“Scrapping downward transition will help the businesses most adversely impacted by the pandemic and other market factors, and the Supporting Small Business Scheme will help those who have grown their business to the point where they lose some business rates relief they previously claimed.
“This package of business rates measures meets our asks to the Chancellor and we are delighted that he has listened. We will continue to work with the Treasury and other departments on modernising the whole business rates system.”
A spokesperson for ASOS said:“We welcome the Chancellor’s decision to rule out an Online Sales Tax after considering the evidence and arguments.
“Like other online retailers and major High Street names, we opposed this new sales tax which would have added significant business costs against the backdrop of the current challenging economic environment and risked higher prices, so this decision is good news for consumers and businesses alike.”
Reserch & Development
A spokesperson for GSK said:“We welcome the Government’s continued commitment to increase investment in R&D and boost incentives for businesses to invest in innovation.
“Given the challenging economic circumstances we face, it’s even more important that the Government continues to take steps to secure the UK’s leadership in science and technology, including life sciences which are a key source of jobs and growth, and we look forward to working with the Government to deliver this ambition.”
Richard Torbett, Chief Executive, The Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI), said: “The Chancellor has delivered a pragmatic Autumn Statement, taking some tough decisions while recognising the vital role innovation must play in setting the economy back on the path to recovery.
“The decision to protect spending on research and development, as well as increasing the R&D expenditure credit from 13 to 20 percent are both essential to boosting the UK’s share of global pharmaceutical R&D spending and investment.
“The life sciences industry is uniquely well-placed to deliver the innovation-led growth the UK needs. To realise this opportunity, the government must continue striving to make the UK a more competitive and attractive place to invest. This journey is already well underway, but we need to raise our ambitions even further if we are to truly make the UK a life science superpower.”
SOLVENCY II
Hannah Gurga, Director General, The Association of British Insurers (ABI), said:“We strongly welcome these changes to the Solvency II regime which will allow the UK insurance and long-term savings sector to play an even greater role in supporting the levelling up agenda and the transition to Net Zero.
“Meaningful reform of the rules creates the potential for the industry to invest over £100bn in the next ten years in productive finance, such as UK social infrastructure and green energy supply, whilst ensuring very high levels of protection for policyholders remain in place.
“More broadly, it will encourage a thriving and competitive industry which will ultimately benefit the UK economy, the environment and customers. This meets the objectives that HM Treasury set out to achieve and which the industry has supported throughout.”
TUC: Working people take the hit for Tory economic failure
In his Autumn Statement today, Jeremy Hunt, the fourth Conservative Chancellor this year, announced that the UK economy is in recession. The documents that accompanied his statement warned of half a million job losses. Staggeringly workers face in 2022 and 2023 the worse years of a pay crisis that is now reckoned to be lasting basically for two decades.
Rightly protections were announced against further energy price rises, and social security protection was uprated in line with inflation. The government took the advice of the low pay commission to increase the minimum wage to £10.42 an hour.
But this support is paid for by steep cuts to departmental budgets from 2024-25 onwards. And immediately there was no extra money to support public servants in the face of double-digit inflation.
As Frances O’Grady said: ““This is a recession made in 10 Downing Street, which will put jobs at risk and hit workers’ wages. We are all paying the price for the last decade of Tory governments, which decimated growth and living standards.
“Today’s statement shows it will be two decades until real wages recover. Millions of key workers across the public sector – who got us through the pandemic – face years of pay misery as departmental budgets are brutally squeezed.”
Real pay and jobs
The OBR forecast expects that the real pay squeeze that’s already in its fourteenth year is set to last another five. Real average weekly earnings aren’t expected to go back above 2008 levels until 2027 – a 19-year pay squeeze that’s hit workers hard and is longer than any other since the Napoleonic times. The statement itself did little to help. The minimum wage has increased, but by less than inflation and still below the level of a real living wage. There was nothing to suggest public sector workers will get pay rises to help face the rising cost of living, after a decade in which their pay has been squeezed time and time again.
In terms of the labour market, the OBR has forecast a sustained fall in employment, still flatlining economic participation, and a rise in unemployment, which is not expected to return to the pre-crisis level until beyond the end of the forecast period in 2027. In terms of headcount the rise in unemployment is half a million – though the Bank of England is forecasting that it will rise by double this.
Policies to support working people and households
Ahead of the disastrous mini budget we called for protection against rising bills, with any costs shared fairly. And we called for a plan to grow the economy. The most prominent feature of the Chancellor’s plan was also the most worrying – to celebrate Nigel Lawson’s big bang that scrapped regulation on the city and set the trajectory to the global financial crisis.
Protection against inflation
A universal protection against rising energy bills was replaced with a more targeted approach, with bills now allowed to rise to an average of £3,000 p.a. (up from £2,500), but extra support for those on means tested benefits, pensioners, and disabled people. But energy are not the only bills that are soaring – CPI inflation is now at a forty year high of 11.1 per cent. Food inflation is at a record level, fuel prices are very high and prices are up across the board. The ONS reported this week that inflation rates hitting the lowest earners are three percentage points higher than those for the highest earners.
Benefits
Chancellor said, ‘I am proud to live in a country with one of the most comprehensive safety nets anywhere in the world.’ This comment is beyond belief, as since 2010 this Government have implemented cuts which have decimated the social security system.
The benefit uprating by the Chancellor today has been the bare minimum. The standard out of work benefit is now worth just 13% of average weekly earnings. And the basic amount of universal credit will be worth £43 a month less than in 2010 even after this uprating is in place.
The state pension has fared better than working age benefits thanks to the triple lock, but ours remains one of the least generous in Europe. So the decision to return to the triple lock formula and increase pensions by CPI inflation after this year’s real terms cut, and to increase pension credit in line with prices too, was the bare minimum.
The autumn statement also contained a strong hint that the government was preparing to axe its formula linking state pension age rises to improvements in life expectancy and bring forward its planned increase. The savings to government – and cost to the public people – of this move would dwarf the impact of pension increases resulting from the triple lock in any given year.
The minimum wage will be raised to £10.42 in 2022/23. Significant increases are needed especially after real terms declines over the last couple of years. But the announced increase will still leave the real value of the minimum wage 1.1 per cent below where it was two years before. The government must, instead, put the minimum wage on a growth path to £15 as soon as possible.
Infrastructure investment
The Chancellor warned that capital investment was too soft a soft target for austerity (like under George Osborne), then proceeded to cut planned spending by £5bn in 25-26, £9bn in 26-27 and £15bn in 27-28.
This will have major impacts on delivering the infrastructure needed to keep people moving, the UK economy competitive, and to hit climate targets.
Taxing wealth and windfalls
The Chancellor was duty bound to hit the better off. But these were not big changes in the great scheme of things. The biggest hits came on the energy profits levy and the electricity generator levy, raising £14bn in 23-24 and £11bn in 24-25. The wider hit from the 20% income tax thresholds will earn the Treasury a cool £6bn a year, compared to less than £1bn raised from lowering the threshold for paying the top rate of tax. All these changes are however dwarfed by the reversal of Rishi Sunak’s health and social care levy which costs £16-£17bn a year.
More pay misery for millions of public sector workers and the services they deliver
A strong economy relies on strong public services. Welcome words from the Chancellor as he set out his fiscal statement. Yet, warm words failed to match spending plans.
The Chancellor confirmed government would stick to cash spending plans set out in the Comprehensive Spending Review 2021. Meaning departmental budgets would not be adjusted to account for soaring inflation, placing unsustainable pressure on public services and creating more years of pay misery for the millions of key workers across the public sector who got us through the pandemic.
Analysis carried out by NEF for the TUC ahead of the budget showed, departmental budgets needed an additional £43 billion just to remain at the level set out in the Comprehensive Spending Review 2021 and keep public sector pay in line with the cost-of-living. This did not materialise.
Some relief was provided for key government departments such as the NHS, social care and schools. Nothing for public sector pay rises or cash starved areas like the court system, prisons, HMRC and local government.
Schools will receive an additional £2.3 billion in funding for 2023-24 and 2024-25, representing an overall spending increase of 4 per cent, returning per pupil spending to 2010 levels.
But no additional funding was provided for adult education, where spending fell by 49 per cent between 2009 and 2019 – surprising given the Chancellor’s emphasis on the importance of skills to economic stability and growth.
Nor for the cash-strapped early years sector, where the number of providers fell by 4,000 between 1 April 2021 and 31 March 2022, in large part due to a toxic combination of unsustainable funding levels and soaring costs for essential expenditure such as energy and food.
Health and social care will receive additional funding of around £7.5 billion. An estimated £1.6 billion of the money identified for social care requires local authorities generating additional revenue through rises to council tax.
At a time when millions of households are struggling with the cost-of-living, it is hard to see how councils will do this without putting even more financial strain on families.
Councils in areas of high socio-economic deprivation, often the most cash strapped when it comes to social care, will have the hardest time raising additional revenue.
The additional £3.3 billion for the NHS represents less than 1% of it’s overall budget. A drop in the ocean. Only a fraction of what our NHS and its workforce needs this winter. With NHS vacancies at a record-high, one in ten posts unfilled, what the health system desperately needed was investment in its workforce.
Indeed, across the public sector, what was needed and missing from today’s fiscal statement was a recognition that after twelve years of government imposed pay restraint and real terms pay cuts, our public sector workforce are on their knees. To deliver world class, high-quality public services, we need to treat the people that deliver them, with respect and dignity. That starts with spending plans that deliver cost-of-living proof pay rises in 2022 and beyond.
Public spending, GDP and the government finances
In spite of all this pain, the biggest risk is still the economy. Here the OBR have let the government off lightly. While the recession means a decline in GDP next year of 1.4 per cent, activity recovers quickly into 2024 and then continues at rates that would be exceptional given the experience since 2008. When asked at their press conference why the forecasts were so much stronger than those of the Bank of England, the OBR offered – ‘ask the Bank’.
This vigour comes in spite of much higher than anticipated central bank interest rates, virtually unchanged government support on the immediate horizon, and heavy austerity into the future (at the press conference the OBR equivocated whether it was comparable to Osborne’s).
In a way we are lucky. Better projected GDP outcomes protect against the need for even tougher austerity, given the vogue for fiscal rules. Nonetheless the government have also accepted a fairly substantial increase in borrowing over coming years, with public sector debt is expected to peak at 97.6 per cent of GDP in 2025-26.
There are no game changers here, and there is very little protection against a steeper deterioration. In the meantime workers face yet another severe reduction in the standard of life. But sadly nothing here is new. Until we have a government that has a serious plan to put work before wealth, we look set to remain trapped in the doom loop of austerity politics.
We know that today’s choices weren’t inevitable. There is a better plan to grow the economy, protect our public services, and get wages rising. Now we need a government prepared to deliver it.
