Tag: analysis

Fraser of Allander: Annual Health Checks for People with Learning Disabilities

As part of our ongoing work on the lives of people with learning disabilities, we continue to track the latest research, policy developments, and data shaping their experiences (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s DAVID JACK).

In previous round-ups, we’ve explored topics ranging from employment and social care to education and healthcare access. For this edition, we turn our attention to the rollout of annual health checks for people with learning disabilities in Scotland.

What are Annual Health Checks?

An Annual Health Check is a yearly check-up offered to individuals with learning disabilities to help identify and manage their health needs. It typically includes a review of medical history, physical health measurements (such as weight and blood pressure), checks on long-term conditions, discussions about mental health and lifestyle, assessment of healthcare access difficulties, medication reviews, and the development of a health action plan if required. The goal is to detect potential health issues early and support overall well-being.

Why Annual Health Checks Matter

Annual health checks are seen as a vital tool in addressing health inequalities. Many people with learning disabilities face challenges in communicating their symptoms, making proactive health assessments essential. Research consistently highlights the poorer health outcomes this group experiences, including higher rates of undiagnosed conditions, preventable illnesses, and premature mortality.

Just this week, researchers at the University of Glasgow released new findings revealing that young adults (aged 25-34) with learning disabilities are nine times more likely to die from treatable causes than their peers in the general population. The study, led by the Scottish Learning Disabilities Observatory, underlined the severe health inequalities faced by this group—particularly young women, who were found to be at disproportionately higher risk of premature death from treatable conditions.

Scotland’s Commitment and the Reality of Implementation

In May 2022, the Scottish Government pledged to offer annual health checks to all adults (aged 16+) with learning disabilities by 31st March 2023. To support this, NHS Boards were allocated £2 million annually. However, implementation struggles led to a revised deadline of 31st March 2024.

The first official data on Scotland’s progress has now been released by the Scottish Government. The 2023/24 figures reveal that despite identifying 23,758 eligible individuals, only 1,405 (6%) health checks were offered, with just 1,128 completed. This means fewer than 5% of eligible individuals have received a health check—highlighting that the rollout remains far from comprehensive. Notably, while 80% of those offered a check went on to complete it, the vast majority of eligible adults have yet to be given the opportunity.

The failure to fully implement the annual health check programme points to deeper systemic challenges within Scotland’s healthcare system. While the Scottish Government has made reassurances that health checks remain a priority, the delay of the Learning Disabilities, Autism, and Neurodivergence (LDAN) Bill has raised concerns about long-term commitment.

In a letter to the Health, Social Care, and Sport Committee, Minister Maree Todd reaffirmed the Scottish Government’s dedication to expanding health checks, including exploring new settings such as the State Hospital and prisons. However, these recent figures suggest that rather than expanding, the programme is struggling at a foundational level. The challenge appears not to be a lack of policy ambition but a failure in execution, which risks slowing or even obstructing progress in reducing health inequalities in Scotland.

A Troubling Lack of Progress

While 2024 marks the first year of formal reporting, and some allowances can be made for scaling-up challenges, the level of delivery remains lower than expected, particularly given the dedicated £2 million in annual funding. The current data does not include a breakdown of uptake by NHS Board—an important detail that should be incorporated into future reporting. The next set of figures, due in June 2025, will be key in providing greater transparency on regional disparities, and we also encourage the publication of more detailed demographic data when appropriate.

Back in November 2024, media reports stated that none of Scotland’s NHS Boards had fully met the target of offering health checks to all eligible individuals. In some areas, such as NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Shetland, there were indications that not a single eligible patient had received a health check. Greater clarity on this is needed through more detailed official statistical reporting to ensure timely, accurate and transparent data on progress.

Encouraging NHS Boards to report on how they are utilising the allocated £2 million per annum could provide valuable insights and help address delivery challenges. Additionally, assessing the effectiveness of public awareness campaigns would help identify what has worked well and what could be improved to ensure that people with learning disabilities and their families are fully informed about their right to an annual health check.

Varied Approaches

The Scottish Government provided directives outlining the framework for annual health checks, while allowing flexibility in local implementation. This flexibility has resulted in varied delivery models across NHS Boards, reflecting differences in workforce capacity, healthcare structures, and local resources. Some Boards will conduct checks primarily through GP practices, while others may incorporate community-based assessments, specialist learning disability health teams, or partnerships with third-sector organisations.

For example, NHS Lothian recommended a model where Community Learning Disability Nurses work closely with GP practices. Other Boards are integrating health checks into community services or collaborating with third-sector organisations to improve outreach. However, these varied approaches risk creating inconsistencies in data recording, as different systems are likely being used.

The Scottish Government has emphasised the need for standardised data collection across all Health Boards. A uniform approach is essential for assessing the effectiveness of health checks and ensuring equitable service delivery. The Annual Health Checks National Implementation Group aims to assist NHS Boards in aligning practices and reporting methods, with members expected to share real-time delivery data to collaboratively address challenges, overcome barriers, and provide peer support.

Beyond the Census: How Health Checks Could Bridge the Data Gap

If Scotland’s annual health checks for individuals with learning disabilities had been fully implemented as intended, they could have provided a valuable and reliable dataset on the number of people with learning disabilities in the country. Interestingly, the number of adults (23,758) identified through the Annual Health Check Survey Return to the Scottish Government already exceeds the number of adults reporting a learning disability in Scotland’s 2011 Census (21,115) by 12.5%.

This first set of published data for the Annual Health Check Survey states, “The method by which eligible people are identified varies by Health Board – the numbers identified only represent people with learning disabilities who are known to services.” Coupled with the fact that these checks are not yet being delivered at full capacity, this suggests that the true number of adults with learning disabilities in Scotland is likely to be higher than 23,758.

Scotland’s 2022 Census faced significant challenges in identifying the learning disability population. Instead of reporting learning disabilities separately, the published data currently combines them with learning difficulties and developmental disorder—a disappointing step backward compared to 2011.

The National Records of Scotland (NRS) identified learning disability as the primary category of concern, noting an “unrealistically large increase” in the number of people selecting this category compared to the previous census. As we previously explained, quality assurance efforts primarily relied on triangulating data with Scotland’s Pupil Census, which only captures those in school education and does not account for the broader adult population.

A fully functioning health check system could have served as an essential alternative data source, refining population estimates, improving census accuracy, and informing future data collection. Crucially, it could have also helped assess discrepancies in reported numbers—and given the challenges with learning disability recording in the 2022 Census, it still could—helping to clarify the scale of potential misrepresentation and ensuring that individuals with learning disabilities are properly represented in National Statistics and policy planning.

Policy Changes in England: A Warning for Scotland?

Recent developments in England signal changes to the NHS’s approach to annual health checks for individuals with learning disabilities. In an effort to prioritise reducing waiting times, Health Secretary Wes Streeting has announced a reduction in the number of NHS targets from 32 to 18.

This streamlining includes the removal of the specific target to provide annual health checks to 75% of people with learning disabilities across England. It is worth noting that unlike England’s previous approach, Scotland’s current policy is to offer a health check to all eligible individuals, without a set percentage target for delivery.

The Health Secretary’s recent decision has raised concerns that removing these targets could also lead to the loss of ring-fenced funding in England. Historically, funding has been directly tied to national targets to support their delivery, and without this financial safeguard, there is a risk that annual health checks could be deprioritised.

Mencap has warned that removing this target could have “deadly consequences,” as people with learning disabilities already face a life expectancy up to 23 years shorter than the general population.

While healthcare policy in Scotland is devolved, pressures on workforce capacity and financial resources remain significant challenges. If services continue to be overstretched, there is a risk that learning disability healthcare may receive less focus. This could make it more difficult to address health inequalities, potentially leaving those already at high risk of poor health outcomes further marginalised.

Conclusion: Turning Commitment into Action

The rollout of annual health checks for people with learning disabilities in Scotland remains a work in progress, with ongoing challenges still to be addressed. Despite the Scottish Government’s assurances that expanding access remains a priority, the reality is that progress has been slow, and only a small percentage of eligible individuals have received a health check so far.

Beyond improving individual health outcomes, a fully implemented programme could play a crucial role in shaping policy by providing more accurate data on Scotland’s learning disability population—particularly given the shortcomings of the 2022 Census.

As concerns over widening health inequalities grow and policy shifts in England raise further questions about long-term commitments, Scotland must ensure that these health checks move beyond ambition and become a fully embedded, effective service.

Fraser of Allander: Scotland’s Budget

Budget Deals, Budget Revisions, and Budget Pressures

There was a lot of focus this week on the Budget deal struck by the Scottish Government, which will allow the Budget to be supported by the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats (write Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE and SANJAM SURI).

In early January, Anas Sarwar announced that Scottish Labour would abstain on the Budget as the Scottish Government were likely to secure support from the budget from one or other of these parties. Of course, this meant that the Scottish Government did not need to secure support from other parties to ensure that the budget would pass.

However, no doubt John Swinney will be pleased that he can demonstrate working across the chamber, and particularly constitutional boundaries, to come to a deal.

On the face of it, the price paid for the support of these parties seems pretty cheap (in the scheme of the SG Budget!), totalling £16.7m.

With the Scottish Liberal Democrats (TOTAL £7.7m):

  • Increase Drugs and Neonatal Service Investment. +£2.5m
  • Strengthen support for Hospices. Increase the funding from £4m to £5m. +£1m
  • Invest in targeted support for the College sector. +£3.5m in creating an Offshore Wind Skills Programme and College Care Skill Programme.
  • Support the continuation of Corseford College. + 0.7m
  • Offer flexibility to Orkney Island Council in terms of capital and resource funding.

With the Scottish Greens (~£9m):

  • Establish a £2 bus fare cap pilot in a regional transport partnership area. +£3m in 25-26 (£10m in total)
  • Increase Nature Restoration funding. increase from £23 million to £26 million. +£3m
  • Extend free school meal eligibility in S1-S3 in 8 local authority areas – covering pupils in an urban, rural, semi-urban and island authorities in receipt of Scottish Child Payment. +£3m (although it looks like most costs will fall in 2026/27, so not sure about the exact cost in 2025-26)

The Scottish Government say that this will be funded by another draw down from the Scotwind fund (more on Scotwind below) of £3 million to support the capital spending on nature restoration, and the remaining amendments are funded through debt servicing costs which they expect will be lower than they expected at the Draft Budget in early December.

The Spring Budget Revision changes the picture for 2024-25 considerably

Getting less coverage this week is the Spring Budget Revision, which was laid before parliament on Thursday. This is a pretty technical document, with the “supporting notes” document running to 146 pages. This is for the current year, and now reflects the additional Barnett consequentials which were announced through the UK Budget for 2024-25

[By way of background, these revisions happen twice a year, once in the Autumn and once in the Spring, to update the parliament to changes in the funding positions for the current fiscal year. The Budget bill will normally be passed by late February. The ABR comes in roughly Oct/Nov, then the Spring one in Jan/Feb]

The Government did not include any of these announcements in the baseline comparisons for the Budget in December. When asked about the uplifts for 2024-25 in the wake of the UK Budget, they said that the £1.4bn extra in resource funding for 2024-25 was “in line with internal planning assumptions”. This was in the context of the clear budgetary pressures earlier in the financial year, which lead to the emergency budget announcements in September 2024.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission were not please with this, saying “This is a material limitation to information available to the Scottish Parliament for its scrutiny of the Budget and in the spending analysis we can do.”

The SBR published yesterday shows how this money has been allocated in the current year.

The highlights for us are:

  • The £338m resource borrowing that had been planned to cover for a forecast error reconciliation will not be necessary (so they had planned that borrowing into the 2024-25 budget due to this negative reconciliation from previous years, and now do not need to use it because of the funding received)
  • That the planned £424m drawdown for the Scotwind licencing fund will all now be returned (they had already announced that they would reduce this drawdown by £300m at the Budget but now they are returning all of it because of the funding received)
  • That £103m more than planned will be put into the Scotland reserve.

Two things are demonstrated by where the money has gone – first, that it does not seem credible that it was in line with “internal planning assumptions”, in the context of emergency budget measures prior to the UK Budget followed by cancelling of already planned borrowing. Second, it would have helped scrutiny for the 2025-26 Budget if this had been included in the baseline presented at the Scottish Budget, given the SFC role in assessing borrowing and use of the reserve and the role of the Finance and Public Administration Committee.

The restoration of the Scotwind fund is welcome – let’s hope now it will be exclusively committed to capital/infrastructure spending to support the energy transition. It would be good if this could be formally done so the money cannot be used in this way in the future.

Employer NICs likely to cause more budget pressures

We’ve covered the impacts that the employer NICS rises could cause to public services in Scotland.

As a reminder, the Chancellor increased both the rate of employer NICS (from 13.8% to 15%) and lowered the threshold at which employers have to start paying NICS (from £9,100 to £5,000). At the time of the Budget, the Treasury said that public sector employers will be compensated – but no amounts were confirmed, which caused the Scottish Government to (quite rightly) raise concerns about the uncertainty that this would cause.

We’ve heard from the Scottish Government that the expected impact is expected to
range anywhere between £550m (for public sector workers), and £750m (including indirect employees such as childcare, higher education, social care).  We estimated around £500 for the direct public sector. The rumoured amount on the table from the Treasury is £280-300m. Our blog explains the reasons behind these different amounts.

[But, in short, the difference between the SG and the Treasury is what “compensating” the public sector means – the actual cost, or the actual cost if the size and pay bill of the public sector in Scotland was proportionately the same as the UK.]

Whatever the final amount, it is unlikely the whole cost to the public sector will be covered. We said at the time of the Budget that the Scottish Government hadn’t budgeted for this likely shortfall.

Kate Forbes said this week that the public sector in Scotland will have to “absorb” the shortfall- which basically means that the public sector would have to find savings or efficiencies elsewhere to absorb the budgetary impacts of higher NICS.

The confirmation of the compensation will not come until the Supplementary Estimates are published (which might be as late as the end of February). This means that bodies like councils, who are currently trying to set their budgets, will likely have to plan on the basis of absorbing maybe 40-70% of this additional cost until they get confirmation.

Given the scale of financial challenges councils face, this may well impact on the proposed council tax changes they have to consider.

Capital, just capital: The Edinburgh housing market remains a law unto itself

DEMAND FOR GOOD FAMILY HOMES KEEP PRICES BUBBLING

As the old year slips away, home buyers and sellers – as well as property professionals – can look back on 2024 as one of those rare interludes when supply and demand came more closely into alignment, resulting in fewer dramatic ups and downs (writes DM Hall’s KIRSTEN NICHOLSON).

And, although the last month of Q4 is typically quieter than the rest of the year, transactions have still been taking place around Home Report value, with an encouraging number achieving up to 10% over, after going to very good closing dates.

Such deals remain the exception, however, and we are nowhere near the post-Covid boom period when numbers between 10% and 20% above Home Report went unremarked. Closing dates are not as common as in the past with good sales generally being driven by single buyers who come to a mutually acceptable personal arrangement with a willing seller.

There is a significant and ongoing demand for family homes, with people looking for more room and outdoor space in suburban areas close to good school and in easy-living modern developments, both inside and out of the city bypass.

The big challenge, which is definitely throwing grit in the wheels of a more fluid market, is chains. What Scots used to view as a quaintly English phenomenon is becoming more common as buyers find they are not selling in time to commit to a purchase.

These hiccups are exacerbated by the fact that bridging finance, which used to solve this problem, is now virtually impossible to obtain, and people are being advised to not even think about concluding missives until their own are tied down and unshakeable.

The fashion for making an offer subject to the sale of your own property is not helping here, since sellers are imposing unrealistic timescales – sometimes just a number of weeks – for buyers to come up with the goods.

Flat transactions, for so long the reassuringly reliable engine of the local market, have taken a bit of a beating in the past year as buy-to-let landlords cut and run in the face of a storm of legislation which has persuaded many of them that the game is no longer worth the candle.

Concerns about tax relief and a regulatory regime which seems heavily weighted in favour of tenants will not be helped by the two per cent increase this year of Scotland’s Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS), which now adds eight per cent to the total purchase price of extra properties.

There are exceptions, of course. ADS is not diminishing enthusiasm for upscale apartments such as those at New Eidyn, in the St James Quarter “lifestyle destination”, where cash buyers have been attracted from London and abroad as moths to a flame.

And large lateral flats in the £750,000-plus bracket, in prime Edinburgh suburbs, are seeing good business from downsizers who are selling bigger homes and still trousering a handsome profit.

But in general, there are an unusual number of empty ex-rental flats on the market, and this is likely to remain the case as building and labour costs have eroded the attraction of a “doer-upper”, and buyers now seem to sniff at anything less than move-in condition.

Joppa and Portobello, with their panoramic views across to Fife, are currently very popular, boasting solid Georgian homes, good state and private schools and access to the golf courses and attractions of East Lothian.

Gullane and North Berwick are perennially in favour. Formerly fast-moving areas such as Bruntsfield and the New Town are less so at the moment, largely because of the factors mentioned above affecting the flats market.

The most recent Office for National Statistics report puts the average price for a house in Edinburgh at £347,000 – a country mile ahead of the rest of the country and more evidence of the fact the capital remains a market unto itself.

It was to be expected this year that a General Election and a Budget would cause some jitters, and they certainly slowed Q4 of 2024 down a bit – so it could well be reasonable to look for quite a substantial bounce in the quieter political waters of 2025.

That is not to say that we will necessarily see house prices shooting up, but we can be fairly certain that they won’t be dropping.

Kirsten Nicolson is a Director in the Edinburgh residential offices of DM Hall Chartered Surveyors.

Fraser of Allander Institute update

Budget speculation, the economy returns to growth, the impact of cuts, and the disability employment gap

Three weeks still to go, and speculation about what will be in the Budget on 30th October continues (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE, SANJAM SURI and EMMA CONGREVE).

Will the Chancellor change her fiscal rules? It looks likely that there will be some movement on this, whether in the definition of debt or something more fundamental, however much that could undermine their commitments in the manifesto.

Will there be increases in Capital Gains Tax? The speculation on this has reached fever pitch, with some stories suggested rates from 33% to 39% are being considered. (Interestingly, when we look at the ready reckoners from the HMRC, changes of this magnitude in some forms of CGT actually may result in less revenue when behavioural effects are taken into account). There certainly seems to be expectations out there in the economy that the rate may change, with lots of signs that disposals have increased hugely in anticipation.

Will there be increases to employer national insurance contributions? There has been much discussion about this, given the commitment of the UK Government not to “raise taxes on working people”, and due to the fact that the PM would not rule this out this week. A 1 percentage point rise in employers NICS would raise almost £9bn according to the ready reckoner (although we think that doesn’t include the additional costs to departments).

We’ll be going into the detail of some of these issues in the run up to the Budget, so there will be plenty for you all to chew over as we wait… and wait… for the Budget.

UK Economy Returns to growth in August

Data released this morning showed that the UK economy posted its first monthly GDP increase since May 2024. ONS reported this morning that monthly real GDP grew 0.2% in August 2024.  There were no revisions made to the “no growth” months of June and July.  While monthly numbers were in line with consensus forecasts, they show an economy that has slowed down from the beginning of 2024.

The good news is that growth in August came from all key sectors- with services rising by 0.1%, and production and construction rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Crucially- August was also the first time all three sectors positively contributed to growth since March 2024.

A more granular breakdown of service sector growth indicates that the biggest positive contribution came from the professional, scientific, and technical activities subsector- where monthly change in output was +1.6% from the previous month.  Despite overall growth in services sector- seven subsectors saw decline in economic activity- with arts, entertainment, and recreation falling 2.5% over July 2024.

The production sector grew by 0.5% in August after hefty decline of 0.7% in July. Despite a rebound in August, the production output is essentially flat since the end of May 2024. The biggest contributor to production sector came from 1.1% rise in manufacturing activity- driven by transport equipment manufacturing However, mining and quarrying output declined 4.0% over July 2024- continuing their downward trend since end of December 2023.

What is the impact of cuts in spending?

When the Scottish Government presented their Fiscal Statement to parliament in early September, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance said that impact assessments had been done to understand the impact that the announced cuts could have on different groups.

These assessments were not published at the time, but finally were published last week. We welcome the publication of these, and although there are lots of criticisms that could be made of the assessments, it is good to see this transparency. One area of weakness is assuming that if funding was maintained at previous levels, there will be minimal impact, which assumes that previous levels was the correct level… so why was the budget being increased in the first place?

One of the main things to note though is the lack of analysis of cumulative impact on groups. A number of “minimal impacts” could still add up to something significant if they are affecting the same group.

Final report of the parliamentary Inquiry into the disability employment gap published

In 2016, the Scottish Government published A Fairer Scotland for Disabled People, which outlined how the government intended to shape policy – especially labour market policy – for disabled people living in Scotland.

One of the key goals this report outlined was reducing the gap in the employment rate between disabled and non-disabled adults. In 2016, 80.4% of non-disabled working aged adults were employed in Scotland, compared to 42.8% of disabled working aged adults, making for an employment gap of 37.5 percentage points. The government’s goal was to cut this gap in half by 2038.

In 2023, the Economy and Fair Work Committee in Scottish Parliament launched an inquiry into how this policy goal was going. In fact, in 2023, it seemed like it was going quite well.

The gap was down to 30.3 percentage points, which was actually ahead of schedule: if progress were linear, the disability employment gap would drop by about 0.85 percentage points each year, meaning that it would be 31.5 percentage points in 2023.

However, the inquiry turned up less-than-optimistic findings, which have been published in a report out today from the Scottish Parliament.

Two of our economists at the FAI, Allison Catalano and Christy McFadyen, contributed to this inquiry through a fellowship with the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe). Their work, which we published back in January, found that the majority of the change in disability employment is due to a rise in disability prevalence, rather than any specific policy.

Their report also highlighted some significant data issues: people with different types of disability have vastly different capacities for employment, vastly different support needs within employment, and vastly different rates of employment. Yet, in Scottish data and policymaking, disabled people are often treated as a singular entity, meaning that it is not possible to understand where policy interventions might be most effective.

The final inquiry publication highlights our work and a variety of other issues which will need to be addressed in order to improve work access for disabled people, all of which can be found here. They have produced 44 recommendations to improve employment prospects for disabled people.

SQA Insight highlights success for Edinburgh pupils

Edinburgh’s pupils continue to be among the best performing in Scotland

Results from the SQA Insight report shows Edinburgh’s learners are performing better than their virtual comparators in 14 out of 15 key measures,  with 7% more pupils gaining at least one Advanced Higher than in other areas in Scotland.

Edinburgh learners are also out-performing their virtual comparators in Literacy and Numeracy for all stages and levels.

A virtual comparator is a sample of students from other areas of Scotland who have similar characteristics to a school’s students.

The news builds on the SQA exam results in August showing levels of attainment for pupils across Edinburgh remaining above those achieved before the Covid pandemic.

Insight provides teachers and lecturers with a summary of how learners have performed in their exams and coursework for each subject at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher level over the past year.

Councillor Joan Griffiths, Education Convener for the City of Edinburgh Council, said: “This has been another positive year for our pupils. I want to congratulate them, as well as all our teaching and support staff. Their hard work has certainly paid off and praise should go to them as well as all the parents and carers who have supported the children.

“I welcome the results from the SQA Insights report. We have invested heavily in improving the skills of our workforce and I am confident that our staff will continue to improve the quality of teaching and learning to meet the needs of the city’s young people.

“Let’s not forget there is no wrong pathway for our young people as everyone’s learner journey is different. School is about ensuring all our young people are able to fulfil their potential by attaining the highest level of achievements possible and by receiving the best possible experience.

“We want all our learners to find their pathways into the world of higher and further education, employment or training and to narrow the gap between those living in different areas of affluence.”

Course reports – written by principal assessors and principal verifiers – are published to give an insight into how learners performed, detailing which areas of the course assessment where learners performed well, and which areas proved to be more demanding.

Principal assessors and other senior appointees are experienced teachers and lecturers who work with SQA to produce the course reports and highlight examples where candidates have performed well in their external assessments.

The reports also contain advice for teachers, lecturers, and training practitioners on preparing learners for the coming year’s assessments, as well as statistical data relating to grade boundaries.

First Minister outlines his ambitions for Scotland’s economy

The First Minister has set out his ambitions for Scotland’s economy during a speech in Glasgow.

Speaking at the Barclays Campus in Glasgow’s financial district on Friday, First Minister John Swinney outlined his government’s approach to economic policy making.

Mr Swinney said poor decision-making at UK level, typified by Brexit and immigration policy, means the Scottish Government must work even harder with its limited powers to help businesses and workers thrive.

The First Minister stated his determination to bring hope and optimism and said he will “go all out” to encourage economic investment.

John Swinney said policy making will be governed by:

  • Moderate left of centre, progressive values
  • A partnership approach with unions and business
  • A focus on actions
  • Problem solving based on evidence

The First Minister will highlight significant announcements in Scotland’s renewable energy sector this week and actions the Scottish Government is taking to boost high growth businesses.

The First Minister said: “My goal is to help people live happier and healthier lives with higher living standards and to help businesses boost profitability.

“The evidence shows that independent countries that are comparable to Scotland are wealthier and fairer than the UK.

“Scotland has the talents and resources to match that performance with independence but in the here and now and in the face of Brexit we must work even harder to help Scotland’s economy with the powers we have.

“I will go all out to encourage investment in Scotland and I will ensure people know my government is a firmly pro-business administration.

“A partnership with trade unions and business will be at the core of my approach and through that approach and given our resources, not least incredible renewable energy, we should look to the future with hope and optimism.” 

ANALYSIS: FRASER of ALLANDER INSTITUTE

New FM – new approach on the economy?

Today, the new First Minister John Swinney set out his broad economic aspirations for Scotland (write MAIRI SPOWAGE and EMMA CONGREVE).

In a speech at the impressive Barclays Glasgow Campus (which he said embodied the ambition he wished to have for the economy), he set out the vision he had for Scotland to have a strong, successful, innovative and dynamic economy.

For people who were after specific policy actions, the speech was light on detail, but it was not perhaps fair to expect the FM to outline these sorts of specifics in a speech like this.

The FM also had a difficult line to tread, given (as he himself pointed out) that he has been a Minister in government for 16 of the last 17 years and wanted to talk about successes in a record he is “immensely proud of”. At the same time, he needed to recognise that there were failings in the previous administration that had led to him being in office as First Minister.

Economic Growth is front and centre

The First Minister had said as he took office that eradicating child poverty was his key policy objective. This morning he was keen to set out that there is no conflict between eradicating child poverty and boosting economic growth – rather, they go hand in hand. He set out that boosting the economy will create opportunities for people and raise living standards and that reducing poverty raises spending power and boosts productivity. This is to a large degree true, but there will at times be trade-offs that will require one to be prioritised over the other.

Given the key stakeholders from businesses and business organisations in the room for his speech today, he was very keen to set out that his government was going to work collaboratively with businesses and other organisations to design and implement policies to strengthen the economy. Even more broadly, the FM said that he wished to bring more consensus building back into Scottish politics to try to achieve outcomes – to “build up, not tear down” as he put it.

There was a clear “Scotland is open for business” from the FM today. Supporting more investment in Scotland (particularly related to the Energy Transition and Housing) is clearly a priority for this new administration. This featured heavily in this speech and has been supported by some of the policy announcements made earlier this week.

We will do, rather than write strategy documents

A widely welcomed aspect of the speech is likely to be the FM’s acknowledgment that his government could probably do with carrying out “more concrete actions and fewer strategy documents”.

We have been on record a number of times as saying that the Scottish Government produces too many and too weighty strategy documents. So this is a crowd pleaser to a room of people who are likely to want to see action rather than just warm words and have seen endless strategies come and go.

However, it is important to remember what the problem sometimes was with these documents. Sometimes, in the case of recent economic strategy documents, the problem is that they aren’t really strategies – if they set out high-level principles that no one can disagree with, but don’t provide a meaningful framework for prioritisation and dealing with trade-offs, then they aren’t particularly useful.

In other cases, even where strategies are set, they can often gather dust on a shelf rather than meaningfully drive activity in government.

All of this from the FM is likely to be broadly welcomed – it’s an easy sell to say there will be less bureaucracy. But let’s not forget that we still need a clear economic strategy from the FM and the DFM – and that a strategy is not a strategy unless it rules some things out and recognises trade-offs and carries through into day-to-day activity. This clarity and policy stability is what is likely to be required to inspire the confidence in investors that this new administration would like to see.

Looking forward, not back

Many of the questions from journalists in the room today were designed to get the FM’s views on what went wrong with economic policy under the previous leadership, In addition, he was asked what his government was likely to do on policies like rent controls, short term lets legislation, and tax increases (specifically income tax) that have been put in place at the past budgets. Essentially, people were keen to hear what, in these specific areas, might change under a John Swinney government.

The FM said clearly that he was “looking forward, not back” in response to the question about what went wrong under Humza Yousaf.

With regards to specific policies where regulation was impacting businesses, he said his Cabinet colleagues were looking at lots of areas of policy and that more details on specific policies would be following in the weeks and months to come.

On tax, he was more forthcoming – acknowledging that the higher tax rates on above-median earners in Scotland are an important component of raising revenue in straitened fiscal times, but also saying that “we can’t keep raising taxes”. It will be interesting to see how this approach to tax is reflected in the Government’s Draft Tax Strategy, which is due alongside the Medium Term Financial Strategy (date currently tbc). That is if these two documents survive the cull of strategies …

Evidence-based approaches

The FM today said a number of times that the government he leads will be more practical and will be driven by the evidence of “what works”. We are very supportive of this, of course, and hope it signals a shift of more meaningful appraisal and assessment of policy options within the Scottish Government, with the associated investment in evaluation.

In doing this, unintended consequences, whether economic or otherwise, are more likely to be identified and can be proactively mitigated, and/or it can allow the government to change course at an earlier stage.

In addition, progress and continuous improvement can only happen in a culture of meaningful evaluation and being prepared to learn from what worked and what didn’t work.

For example, how well has the policy on rent freezes and caps worked to date? It would initially appear from rental costs that it has had the opposite effect on rents than the government presumably desired, and it would also appear to have had an impact on investor confidence in the sector. Given the FM’s focus on housing in his speech today, and his commitment to be evidence-based, it will be interesting to see how this policy area progresses.

Is this a meaningful shift in approach?

With his speech today, that is certainly what the FM is trying to convey. He was saying many of the right things to hearten those who want to see the government focus on economic growth.

However, the proof will be in the policy action that is actually taken. So, let’s wait for these details in the weeks to come.

TUC: UK families suffering “worst decline” in living standards in the G7

UK is only country in G7 where household budgets have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels

  • Families would be £750 a year better off if real disposable income had grown in line with other leading economies 
  • Working people are being made poorer by Conservative failure, union body says 

The UK is suffering the worst decline in living standards of any G7 country – according to new TUC analysis published this week.

The analysis shows the UK is only G7 economy where real household disposable income per head hasn’t recovered to its pre-pandemic levels: 

Real household disposable incomes in the UK were 1.2% lower in the second quarter of 2023 than at the end of 2019. 

But over the same period they grew by 3.5%, on average, across the G7. 

The TUC estimates that if real disposable income in the UK had risen in line with the G7 average UK families would be £750 a year better off. 

More pain ahead 

The union body warned that the contraction in UK household budgets is going to get worse – despite falling inflation. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that real house disposable income per head in Britain will fall by an additional 3.4% by the end of the first quarter of 2024. 

And according to the same forecasts household budgets won’t even recover to their pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2026. 

The OBR said in November that UK households are suffering the worst period for living standards since modern records began in the 1950s. 

Households in debt 

The TUC says the Conservatives’ failure to grow the economy and deliver healthy wage growth has pushed many households further into debt. 

Analysis published by the union body at the end of December revealed that unsecured debt (credit cards, loans, hire purchase agreements) is set to rise by £1,400 per household, in real terms, this year. 

The TUC says working people have been left brutally exposed to rising costs after years of pay stagnation. 

UK workers are on course for two decades of lost living standards with real wages not forecast to recover to their 2008 level until 2028. 

The TUC estimates that the average worker has lost £14,800 since 2008 as a result of their pay not keeping up with pre-global financial crisis real wage trends. 

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “The UK is the only G7 nation where living standards are worse than before the pandemic. 

“While families in other countries have seen their incomes recover – household budgets here continue to shrink. 

“This is a damning indictment on the Conservatives’ economic record.  

“Their failure to deliver decent growth and living standards over the last 13 years has left millions exposed to skyrocketing bills – and is pushing many deeper into debt. 

“We can’t go on like this. Britain cannot afford the Tories for a day longer.” 

Growth in real disposable household income in the G7 

Country change 2019Q4 to 2023Q2 
United Kingdom -1.2 
Italy 0.1 
Germany 0.2 
Japan * 0.5 
France 2.4 
Canada 3.0 
G7 3.5 
United States 6.0 
source: OECD; * Japan to 2022Q1 

– The analysis is based on OECD figures for real household disposable income per head, which extend to 2023Q2 (except for Japan, which go to 2022Q1). Looking forward, UK figures are based on Office for Budget Responsibility projections in the November 2023 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. As with the ONS outturns and OBR projections, cash figures are in 2019 prices. 

– The OBR measure living standards as real household disposable income (RDHI) per person. 

How will the ‘Back to Work Plan’ impact Scottish benefit recipients?

The proposals in the UK Government’s Back to Work Plan contain a confusing mixture of devolved and reserved responsibilities, which leave us slightly mystified as to exactly how this is all going to work in practice (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE):

In his speech, the Chancellor said: “… last week I announced our Back to Work Plan. We will reform the Fit Note process so that treatment rather than time off work becomes the default.

“We will reform the Work Capability Assessment to reflect greater flexibility and availability of home working after the pandemic. And we will spend £1.3 billion over the next five years to help nearly 700,000 people with health conditions find jobs.

“Over 180,000 more people will be helped through the Universal Support Programme and nearly 500,000 more people will be offered treatment for mental health conditions and employment support.

“Over the forecast period, the OBR judge these measures will more than halve the net flow of people who are signed off work with no work search requirements. At the same time, we will provide a further £1.3 billion of funding to offer extra help to the 300,000 people who have been unemployed for over a year without having sickness or a disability.

“But we will ask for something in return. If after 18 months of intensive support jobseekers have not found a job, we will roll out a programme requiring them to take part in a mandatory work placement to increase their skills and improve their employability. And if they choose not to engage with the work search process for six months, we will close their case and stop their benefits.”

These changes have the potential to impact recipients of Universal Credit. The complication is that UC is reserved, while many elements of employment support – the “extra help” that the Chancellor talks about – is, on the whole, devolved.

Because of this, many of the support mechanisms to help people avoid sanctions in England (& Wales in most cases) generated Barnett consequentials, including:

  • Restart: expand eligibility and extend the scheme for two years
  • Mandatory Work Placements: phased rollout
  • Universal Support: increase to 100,000 starts per year
  • Talking Therapies: expand access and increase provision
  • Individual Placement and Support (IPS): expand access
  • Sanctions: closing claims for disengaged claimants & end of scheme review
  • Fit Note Reform trial

So, in summary, it looks like the sanctions could be applied in a reserved benefit, following support that may or may not be provided by the Scottish devolved employability system as the Scottish Government could choose to spend the money on something else.

We wait for more details from both the UK & Scottish Governments about how this is going to work in practice.

Autumn Statement ‘has done nothing to end the living standards and growth crises’

ANALYSIS by TUC’s GEOFF TILY

• The real pay crisis is intensified and now expected to last 20 years.
• The politically charged National Insurance cut makes the smallest dent in the worse squeeze on household incomes since the 1950s.
• While the Chancellor has enjoyed higher revenues, he has chosen to play austerity politics rather than back public services on the brink – £20 billion has been taken from public services to fund the meagre tax cut.
• An ‘Autumn Budget for growth’ has meant the reduced growth in almost every year of the forecast.
• ‘Full expensing’ of capital expenditure is a seriously inefficient way to boost the economy.
• In spite of all the claims to the contrary, the Tories are still presiding over worst deterioration in public finances for more than 100 years.

Real wage and household disposable income crisis unended

The forecasts published alongside the statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) contained alarming news on real wages. According to the OBR forecasts, real wages are now not set to return to 2008 levels until 2028. The current pay squeeze will hit two decades.

This is a significant downgrade on the March forecast, when wages were returning to 2008 levels by 2026 – two years sooner than it now expects.

graph of total average weekly earnings, including OBR forecast

The forecast for broader living standards (as measured by real household disposable income per person) remains dire. After already declining in both the 2020/21 and 2022/23 financial years, further falls are expected over the next two.

While in fact a less bad forecast than March, the OBR stress that living standards “are forecast to be 3½ per cent lower in 2024-25 than their pre-pandemic level … this … represents the largest reduction in real living standards since ONS [Office for National Statistics] records began in the 1950s”.

year-on-year change in RHDI per person

The OBR also put into perspective the 2 per cent cut in National Insurance, reckoning it will boost living standards by around 0.5 per cent at the end of the forecast. This is a minor dent in an immense collapse, and of course as everybody has pointed out only reverses in a small way tax increases at past statements – even on their own terms the government are failing.

Minimum wage

Specifically for those on the minimum wage, the Chancellor has accepted the recommendations of the Low Pay Commission (LPC). This takes the wage floor to £11.44 an hour and extends coverage to everyone aged 21+. This is badly needed and follows pressure from unions and low-pay campaigners. But with prices sky high, and the OBR increasing its inflation forecasts, the minimum wage must be raised to £15 as soon as possible, and extended to all adult workers.

The Low Pay Commission’s recommendations take the minimum wage to 66% of median wages. This is an internationally recognised measure of relative low pay. However, the Chancellor’s claims that he has eliminated low pay should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is a measure of pay distribution which looks at how close low-paid workers are to the median worker. The floor has risen since 2010 but the middle has had no real pay rise over 13 years. The bottom has been catching up, in part, because wages are stagnant for everyone else. The government should set the LPC’s next minimum wage target at 75% of median wages, and this should be delivered alongside a plan for real wage growth for all workers.

Unemployment rise

The OBR has also predicted that unemployment will steadily rise from now until midway through 2025, estimating there will be 275,000 more people in unemployment than at the start of this year. At no point in the OBR forecasts do they predict unemployment will fall below the level at the start of the year.

obr unemployment forecast

It is unfair to put it mildly to penalise individuals for an economic climate which is out of their control.  The Chancellor decided to support compulsory work placements, but analysis show this punitive policy does not result in an improved employment outcome. 

Skills

The Government plans focus largely on reforms coming in for 16-18 year olds, overlooking the skills gap faced by those already in the labour market. On apprenticeships £50m for a 2-year pilot widely misses the mark.  In 2021/22, there were approximately 349,200 apprenticeship starts in England – a 31% decline from the pre-Apprenticeship Levy figures of 509,400 starts in 2015/16 (Source: CIPD). The funds are largely directed at male-dominated sectors, according to the Women’s Budget Group. Other measures are recycled and/or small – though the increase to the pitifully low apprenticeship minimum wage is be welcomed. 

Little has been done to reverse cuts to adult and further education budgets since 2010, with spending still significantly below where it was when the government took office. Celebrating an uptick in Level 4 apprenticeships just repeats the ‘virtuous cycle’ where those with the highest levels of qualification receive the most investment in their training. Graduates get most of the training as working adults, and almost half of adults from the lowest socio-economic group receive no training at all after leaving school.

Social security

It is a low bar for this Government when they boast that benefits are being uprated in line with September’s rate of inflation, which is standard practice. Though they have severed the link between inflation and the uprating of benefits numerous times since 2010 – which has slashed vital financial support for families.

And while the Local Housing Allowance has been restored to the 30th percentile after it was last frozen in 2020, it will be frozen again and support reduced for ever-increasing rental prices.     

There were also significant cuts to benefit entitlements for some people with long term health conditions. They are expected to lose £400 a month compared to current system, and face the threat of sanctions to enter employment.

The rate at which prices are increasing may have slowed, but families are still struggling with the essentials. Over the last two years the cost of energy has increased by 49 percent while food prices have increased by 28 percent.

Energy prices

And energy bills are a glaring omission from this Autumn Statement.

Household energy bills remain 50% higher than they were in the winter of 2021-2022 (approximately £600 higher for an average household). This means that an estimated 6.3 million households are in fuel poverty (spending more than 10% of their income on energy), and more than 1 million households are in extreme fuel poverty (spending 20% or more of their income on energy). (Estimate by Friends of the Earth  and National Energy Action as government data are not yet available.)

Energy prices are expected to remain high or increase. Ofgem today raised the domestic energy price cap by 5%, based on wholesale price volatility.

Many employers will also struggle with rising and volatile energy bills. The UK consistently has some of the highest electricity prices for business in Europe, affecting the ability of UK manufacturers to compete internationally. Unions representing manufacturing workers have consistently campaigned alongside employer bodies for measures to rein in excessive and volatile wholesale energy prices – but these issues seem to be far from the list of priorities of the current Government.

Public services and public finances crises continue

As the OBR gently warn, “it is worth dwelling for a moment on something the Chancellor didn’t announce in his Autumn Statement – which is any major change to departmental spending plans despite significantly higher inflation”.

 The government has added “just” £5 billion a year in cash terms to departmental budgets, and this means that “the real spending power of these budgets is eroded by around £19 billion” relative to the previous forecast (as on their chart below).

change in real total DEL spending from 2022-2023

In 2023-24 the increased budget is allocated for public sector pay increases (£3.9 billion for the NHS in 2023-24, and £0.4 and £1.4 billion for other departments in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively). Overall, the OBR have departmental spending growing by 0.9 per cent a year in real terms, down from 1.1 per cent at the March Budget.  

Given the government’s political priorities on spending, the OBR stress that unprotected departmental spending is projected to fall by between 2.3 and 4.1 per cent a year in real terms from 2025-26. They wryly observe this (austerity) would “present challenges” and cite the Institute for Government’s recent report finding that “performance in eight out of nine major public services has declined since 2010”.  Plainly there is no intention to resolve the crisis in public services and public service recruitment. And ultimately

The public finances overall

For the public finances as a whole, the government has enjoyed a momentary windfall – with less bad than expected growth outturn and higher inflation meaning tax gains (especially with tax thresholds not being uprated) outweighing higher interest and other costs. This has been spent on the NI cut and expensing.

But the Chancellor has made hollow boasts about the improved condition of the public finances. The overall management of the economy for 13 years has meant a disastrous failure for them. Immediately less bad GDP outcomes (next section) have meant marginally improved ratios for this statement. But overall the Conservatives have presided over a huge increase in debt from 65 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 98 per cent of GDP in the current financial year. This is an unprecedented deterioration relative to all economic cycles for more than a century.

Growth crisis unended

At the end of his speech the chancellor proclaimed an “Autumn Statement for Growth”. But nothing announced yesterday changed the bottom line. While the forecasts reflected ONS revisions to GDP data and a less bad than expected 2022, growth over the next two years is revised steeply down. And on a medium term view the OBR warn:

“we have revised DOWN our estimate of the medium-term potential GROWTH rate of the economy to 1.6 per cent, from 1.8 per cent in March” (our emphasis)

The worse growth performance for the UK economy in a century just got worse again.

“Full expensing”

Of the onslaught in policy measures, the most prominent was making permanent the full expensing of business capital investment. The Chancellor chose to disregard OBR analysis showing both precursor measures (the super-deduction and temporary full expensing in the March 2021 and March 2023 Budgets) had a lower impact on investment levels than predicted (see OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November 2023, pp 33 – 34).

Introducing full expensing is forecast by the OBR to lead to an increase in business investment of £14 billion between now and 2028-29 and to cost £29.5 bn over the same period. This would appear then to be an extremely inefficient means of increasing business investment, reflecting huge ‘deadweight’ effects, whereby businesses gain generous tax relief on investment that would (likely) have taken place anyway.

The OBR estimates that the measure will raise the capital stock by 0.2 per cent by 2028-29 – a positive, but small, and very costly impact.

Pension saving

The chancellor also had high hopes for the role workers’ £2.5tn of pension savings could play in boosting our flagging economy. But while there were some welcome steps such as setting up a new growth fund through the British Business Bank the plans rely mostly on merging pension schemes in ways that are unlikely to be in the interests of their members, and leaning on funds to put more money into global private equity. These measures were also over shadowed by a poorly thought through proposal to upend the workplace pension system. See our fuller commentary here.  

Industrial strategy?

As the Chancellor noted, the lack of long-term certainty over policy decisions (including industrial strategy, taxes, and climate commitments) is a drawback to business decisions to invest. But there was no reassurance in the Autumn Statement that the Government would provide that certainty. While reannouncements of investment commitments to support the automotive, advanced manufacturing, and energy sectors – amounting to £4.5 billion are welcome, this represents only a small proportion of the investment requirements of the Biden-style industrial strategy that the UK needs.

Ending the failure  

The failure – as Labour have repeatedly identified – is still a failure of growth. The government need to invest in a stronger economy where growth and fairness go hand in hand, where decent pay means workers spend and businesses produce to meet that spending.  A virtuous cycle comes when businesses invest in the face of expansion and optimism, and stronger public services re-enforce the upward dynamic. Fairer and sustainable growth will then support the public finances.

Yet the government continues to take us in the wrong direction. Yesterday’s Autumn Statement showed more strongly than ever why it is time for a change.

Autumn Statement ‘ushers in new era of welfare reform’

A ‘bold new vision for welfare’ backed by nearly £30 billion has been set out by Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride

  • Millions of people will benefit from next generation of welfare reforms and extra support for those most in need, announced at Autumn Statement
  • Benefits increased by 6.7% and pensions by 8.5%, maintaining commitment to seeing the country through cost of living pressures
  • DWP Secretary Mel Stride heralds new era offering a “brighter future for millions”

The plans offer unprecedented employment and health support to help over a million people, while protecting those in most need from cost of living pressures – including raising pensions and benefits and increasing help with housing costs.  

Long term decisions to provide unprecedented help for people to move off welfare and into work were at the heart of the Government’s plan for growth set out at the Autumn Statement.  

While unemployment has been almost halved since 2010, the £2.5bn Back to Work plan will help thousands of people with disabilities, long-term health conditions and the long-term unemployed, to move into jobs. This comes alongside new guarantees for those on the highest tier of health benefits around keeping benefit support to cushion those who try work.  

The transformative employment programme comes as the Government continues to protect the most vulnerable, delivering a Triple Lock-protected boost for pensioners and raising benefits in line with inflation next year, worth £20bn taken together.  

The changes mean the full rate of the new State Pension will go up by £17.35 per week, while families on Universal Credit will be on average £470 better off next year. 

Around 1.6 million households will also benefit from an increase to the Local Housing Allowance – and will be around £800 a year better off on average. Worth more than £7bn over five years, this commitment will support low-income families in the private rented sector with rent costs and help prevent homelessness.  

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Mel Stride MP said: “Work changes lives. With the next generation of welfare reforms, we will help thousands of people to realise their aspirations and move off benefits into work, while continuing to support the most in need. 

“We are taking long term decisions that will build a brighter future for millions, offering unprecedented support to open up opportunity and grow the economy, building on our record that has seen almost four million more people in work since 2010. 

“Our reforms will remove the barriers to work that we know some people still face, while we’re boosting benefits and pensions to help with cost of living pressures.”

Welfare reforms announced at the Autumn Statement include:  

  • Uprating working age benefits in line with September’s CPI index figure of 6.7%.
  • Uprating state pensions in line with September’s earnings figure of 8.5%.
  • Increasing the Local Housing Allowance to cover the 30TH percentile – worth an average of £830 per year.
  • Expanded jobcentre support including intensive help for those on Universal Credit
  • Introducing the Chance to Work Guarantee, which will tear down barriers to work for millions of claimants to try work with no fear of reassessment or losing their health benefit top-ups.
  • Increasing mental health support for jobseekers by expanding NHS Talking Therapies treatment and the Individual Placement and Support programme, supporting almost 500,000 over five years.
  • Matching 100,000 people per year with existing vacancies and supporting them in that role through Universal Support.
  • Rolling out WorkWell to support people at risk of falling into long-term unemployment due to sickness or disability.
  • Reforming the Work Capability Assessment for new health benefit claimants to better reflect the opportunities available in the modern world of work.
  • Stricter sanctions for people who should be looking for work but aren’t engaging with jobcentre support.
  • Building on the Mansion House reforms with further steps to improve private pension returns and grow the economy.
  • Introducing new Government powers to request data from organisations such as banks when accounts are showing signals of fraud and error.

The Government’s ‘radical new plan’ will stem the flow people falling out of work and onto inactivity benefits due to physical or mental health problems, as it takes the long-term decisions to help people realise their dreams to find a job and build a better life. 

With this unprecedented level of employment support comes tougher enforcement of sanctions for fit and able people who should be looking for work but aren’t. 

Work coaches will use tools to track people’s attendance at jobs fairs and interviews, and close benefit claims of those able to work who have been sanctioned and no longer receiving money after six months.  

Taken together, the package will make sure those who are vulnerable or on the lowest incomes are protected, with intensive support to get them back into work, while ensuring fairness to the taxpayer.  

TORY GOVERNMENT OR TUC – WHO DO YOU BELIEVE ?

New Winter COVID-19 Infection Study

A study to gather vital data on COVID-19 this winter has been launched by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The Winter COVID-19 Infection Study (WCIS) will run from November 2023 to March 2024, involving up to 200,000 participants.

UKHSA previously commissioned the Coronavirus Infection Survey (CIS), carried out by the ONS during the pandemic, in partnership with scientific study leads Oxford University.

Recognised globally as the gold standard for surveillance of the virus, CIS gathered and analysed more than 11.5 million swab tests and 3 million blood tests from April 2020 to March 2023. 

The new WCIS is a different study and will involve up to 32,000 lateral flow tests being carried out each week, providing key insight into the levels of COVID-19 circulating across the wider community. This sample will be broadly representative of the population according to key characteristics.

While widespread vaccination has allowed us to live with COVID-19, some people remain more vulnerable to severe illness, and this in turn can lead to increased pressures on the NHS over the winter months.

That is why UKHSA is urging eligible adults to book their flu and COVID-19 vaccines online via the NHS website, by downloading the NHS App, or by calling 119 for free, to give themselves the best protection against severe illness and hospitalisation.

UKHSA’s existing surveillance systems already provide up-to-date information on hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates, but the introduction of this study will allow us to detect changes in the infection hospitalisation rate (IHR), which requires accurate measurement of infection levels in the community.

Calculating the IHR will enable UKHSA to assess the potential for increased demand on health services due to changes in the way the virus is spreading, which could be driven by the arrival of any new variants.

Professor Steven Riley, Director General of Data, Analytics and Surveillance at UKHSA, said: “The data we collected alongside the ONS during the pandemic provided us with a huge amount of valuable insight, so I am delighted that we are able to work together again to keep policymakers and the wider public informed in the coming months.

“UKHSA continues to lead the way internationally on COVID-19 surveillance and by re-introducing a study of positivity in the community, we can better detect changes in the behaviour of the virus.”

The study will use lateral flow devices (LFDs) supplied by UKHSA.

The latest UKHSA technical briefing, published on 22 September, included initial findings of tests performed in the laboratory at Porton Down to examine the effectiveness of LFDs in detecting BA.2.86, and found no reduction in sensitivity compared to previous variants.

The model and scale of this study could also be converted into a programme that captures data on different respiratory viruses, should that be required in future.

Deputy National Statistician Emma Rourke at the ONS said: “ONS is committed to building on the experience of standing up the gold standard CIS. Our resources and statistical expertise are here for the public good, and we are delighted to be delivering this study in partnership with UKHSA.

“There remains a need for robust data to help us continue to understand the virus and its effects during the winter months.

“As well as working to provide UKHSA with regular rates of positivity, we will also be looking at analysis of symptoms, risk factors and the impact of respiratory infections, including long COVID, as part of this important surveillance.”