‘CATASTROPHIC’: Spring Statement welfare cuts will drive 250,000 more people into poverty

Chancellor ‘delivers security and national renewal in a new era of global change’

Chancellor vows to bring about “new era of security and national renewal” as she delivered a Spring Statement to kickstart economic growth, protect working people and keep Britain safe.
People to be on average £500 a year better off by the end of this parliament compared to under the previous government, putting more money in people’s pockets.
OBR forecast concludes government’s landmark planning reforms will result in a £6.8 billion boost to the economy and housebuilding at its highest level in over 40 years by 2029-30
Growth at the heart of Plan for Change as £13 billion of additional capital spend allocated alongside £2.2 billion defence funding boost next year.

THE Labour government said people will be on average £500 better off from 2029, relative to OBR’s autumn forecast, helping to deliver the Plan for Change as the Chancellor yesterday (Wednesday 26 March) announced a Spring Statement to grasp the opportunities in a changing world.

THEY WON’T. From November 2026, 370,000 people who already get PIP will lose it and another 430, 000 who would qualify now no longer will. These people will lose £4500 a year each. And 150,000 carers who look after them will no longer receive their £83.30 a week Carer’s Allowance.

The OBR has also concluded that the government’s landmark planning reforms will result in UK housebuilding reaching its highest level in over 40 years, bringing the UK one step closer to its Plan for Change mission to build 1.5 million homes.

The government says economy will be 0.2% larger in 2029-30 because of the reforms – worth around £6.8 billion in today’s money – growing to 0.4% over the next ten years. This represents the biggest positive growth effect it has ever forecasted for a policy that comes at zero-cost to taxpayers. The reforms will secure over 170,000 new homes for hard working families and leave borrowing £3.4 billion lower in 2029-30.

The Chancellor also set out how the government is protecting national security and maximising the growth potential of the UK defence sector by confirming a £2.2 billion increase in the defence budget in 2025-26 while ensuring UK defence is on the cutting-edge of technology and innovation.

But growth is still not where it should be, so at this Spring Statement, this government has gone ‘further and faster’ to kickstart growth by training up to 60,000 young people to get Britain building again; increasing capital investment by £13 billion over this parliament; and fixing public services by tearing out waste from its roots.

Growth

Kickstarting economic growth is the number one mission of this government, putting more money in people’s pockets. The government has already made considerable progress; supporting a third runway at Heathrow; revitalising the Oxford Cambridge Growth Corridor, launching the National Wealth Fund and making the right choices on public investment to drive growth across the UK.

The actions of this government across the Autumn Budget and Spring Statement, if sustained, lead to a 0.6% rise in the level of real GDP by 2034-35, signalling the government’s growth plan is working.

The OBR concluded that the stability rule is met by £9.9 billion and the investment rule is met by £15.1 billion. Both rules are met two years early, meaning from 2027-28 the government is only borrowing for investment and net financial debt is falling.

The government is not satisfied with short-term growth figures, and is going further and faster today to improve this:

To go further and faster to get Britain building, the Chancellor has today announced a further £13 billion of capital investment over the Parliament to go further on growth, on top of the £100 billion uplift announced at Autumn Budget. This will deliver the projects needed to catalyse private investment, boost growth and drive forward the UK’s modern industrial strategy – unlocking the potential of the Oxford Cambridge Growth Corridor which could add up to £78 billion to the UK economy by 2035.
Taken together, this greater capital investment more than offsets the modest savings on day to day spending and means the total departmental spending will increase over the next five years, when compared with plans in the Autumn.
Over this Parliament, the government is funding a £625 million package to boost skills in the construction sector, which is expected to provide up to 60,000 more skilled construction workers to support the government’s plans to deliver 1.5 million homes in England over the parliament and progress vital infrastructure projects.
As part of this, the government is providing further support to scale up existing construction skills pathway over this Parliament through £100 million for 35,000 additional training places in construction-focused Skills Bootcamps, supporting trainees, ‘returners’, and existing employees to succeed in the sector. Building on the £40 million investment in the new Growth and Skills Levy at Autumn Budget 2024, the government is also providing a further £40 million to support up to 10,000 more young people to access new construction Foundation Apprenticeships, which will provide a key entry route into a thriving industry.
The government is ensuring there are enough skilled construction workers in the system, with £100 million to deliver 10 Technical Excellence Colleges specialised in construction across every region in England, and £165 million to increase funding for training providers delivering construction courses for 16-19-year-olds and adults.
The government is committed to supporting employers to unlock further investment in training to deliver more skilled construction workers, and is providing £100 million, alongside a £32 million contribution from the Construction Industry Training Board to deliver up to 40,000 industry placements in construction each year.
Supported by the construction skills package, the government confirmed this week that there will be a £2 billion injection of new grant funding to deliver up to 18,000 new social and affordable homes. The new funding will only support developments on sites that will deliver in this Parliament, getting spades in the ground quickly to build homes in places such as Manchester and Liverpool.

Defence

The world is changing before our eyes, reshaped by global instability, including Russian aggression in Ukraine. Europe is facing a once-in-a-generation moment for its collective security, with conflicts overseas undermining security and prosperity at home.

A month ago, the PM announced the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War as a result of the changing global picture, now reaching 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, and with an ambition to reach 3% in the next Parliament subject to economic and fiscal conditions.

We are going further and faster to protect our national security and maximise the economic growth potential of the UK defence sector:

Increasing the defence budget by £2.2 billion in 2025-26, taking additional spending on defence to over £5 billion since the Autumn Budget.
This raises spending on defence to 2.36% next year and will be invested in fitting Royal Navy ships with Directed Energy Weapons five years earlier than planned, providing better homes for military families and modernising His Majesty’s Naval Base Portsmouth.
Setting a minimum 10 percent ringfence for equipment spending on emerging technologies like drones and autonomous systems, dual-use technology, and AI-powered capabilities, so that British troops have the tools they need to fight and win in modern warfare.
Getting this new tech into the hands of our armed forces quicker by cutting away bureaucracy, with a new UK Defence Innovation unit within the Ministry of Defence spearheading efforts to identify promising technology and ensure these get to the frontline at speed, while also bolstering the UK tech sector and crowding in private investment.
Creating bespoke procurement processes for different types of military equipment, learning lessons from our rapid support for Ukraine to drive faster timescale targets for operationalising new tanks, aircraft and other essential tools for modern warfare.
This government is determined to transform the defence sector into an engine for growth by focusing this investment on where it boosts the productive capacity of the economy such as investment in innovation and novel technologies. As a result of the increase in defence spending to 2.5%, the government estimates this could lead to around 0.3% higher GDP in the long run, equivalent to around £11 billion of GDP in today’s money.
The government’s investment in defence will also support its number one mission to deliver economic growth. UK citizens will be protected from threats at home whilst creating a stable environment in which businesses can thrive, and supporting highly skilled jobs and apprenticeships across the whole of the UK.

Reform

The government is determined to make the public sector more productive and to improve services for working people. But the changing world means we need to go further and faster to ensure we can deliver the public services that working people care most about.

The government has shown its commitment to taking the difficult decisions required to drive efficiencies and reform the state – including announcing that the world’s largest quango, NHS England, will be brought back into the Department for Health and Social Care, reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies and duplication; and driving out wasteful government spend through cancelling thousands of government credit cards.

Getting more people into jobs is also central to the government’s growth mission. This broken welfare system that is letting people down by asking them to prove what they can’t do, rather than focusing on what they could do with the right support – trapping people due to fear of trying work, lack of support and poor financial incentives.

The social security system will always protect those who can never work, that is why this government is proposing an additional premium that will safeguard their incomes. And will end reassessments for people with the most severe, life-long conditions to give them dignity and security.

Helping more people into work is a central aim of these reforms and which is why the government is tackling incentives to be inactive by abolishing the WCA, rebalancing Universal Credit, and investing more into employment support.

We will always support those with long term health conditions through the Personal Independence Payment, which will remain an important non-means tested benefit for disabled people and people with long term health conditions. But these reforms will make the system more targeted and sustainable to ensure the safety net is there for those who need it most.

The OBR have now set out their final assessment of costings and confirmed this welfare package will reduce welfare spending by £4.8 billion in 2029-/30.

The government will modernise the Civil Service into a more productive and agile organisation that can effectively deliver the Plan for Change, underpinned by a digital revolution, while cancelling thousands of government procurement cards.

Today, the Chancellor has gone further:

The Chancellor has confirmed the creation of a £3.25 billion Transformation Fund to support the fundamental reform of public services, seize the opportunities of digital technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI), and transform frontline delivery to release savings for taxpayers over the long-term.
The Fund will invest in vital public services and accelerate the modernisation of the state by taking the next step to reform the children’s social care system through an additional £25 million for the fostering system. This will include funding the recruitment of a further 400 new fostering households, providing children with stability and addressing cost pressures on local government.
The fund will also support the managing offenders in the community, by providing £8 million for new technology so probation officers can focus on reducing reoffending, rather than filling out forms.
In addition, it will provide £42 million for three pioneering DSIT-led Frontier AI Exemplars. These Exemplars will test and deploy AI applications to make government operations more efficient and effective and improve outcomes for citizens by reducing unnecessary bureaucracy.
To create an agile and productive state we are also providing £150 million for government employee exit schemes. This will support a leaner and more efficient Civil Service, helping to reduce administration costs by 15% by the end of the decade.
The Chancellor also announced a package of measures to close the tax gap, raising £1 billion per year by 2029-30. The UK tax gap was estimated to be around £40 billion in 2022-23.
The Spring Statement earmarks around £80 million in new money for third party debt collectors to bring in £1.3 billion over the next five years – a return of around £16 for every pound spent for UK public services and investment projects. HMRC will also receive £4 million in new funding to pilot a new test and learn programme with the private sector to improve the tax collection agency’s approach to recouping older unpaid tax debt. Ministers will decide whether to proceed with a larger exercise later this year based on the results of this test.
An additional 600 staff will also be recruited into HMRC’s debt management teams. This means that for every £1 spent on these staff, over £13 of debt is expected to be recovered. The staff will work with the private sector to make collecting tax debt more efficient including through automating admin processes.
The Spring Statement also announces £100 million in new funding for HMRC to recruit a further 500 compliance officers from April 2025. This will raise £241 million in unpaid tax over the next five years.
Late payment penalties for VAT and Making Tax Digital for income tax Self Assessment will increase to incentivise taxpayers to pay on time. This will be from 2% to 3% at 15 days, 2% to 3% at 30 days, and 4% to 10% from day 31. This will take effect from April 2025.
As announced in the autumn, Making Tax Digital for income tax Self Assessment will be extended to sole traders and landlords with income over £20,000. The Spring Statement confirms that this additional group will join Making Tax Digital from April 2028. This will build on the existing plan which will see sole traders and landlords with income above £50,000 joining from April 2026, and those with income above £30,000 joining from April 2027. Around 4 million businesses have an income below the £20,000 threshold.

Looking Forward

This Spring Statement builds on the Autumn Budget and the decisions taken since required to deliver stability to the British economy and kickstart economic growth.

The government will set out its plans for spending and key public sector reforms at the Spending Review which will conclude on 11 June 2025.

This will not be a business-as-usual Spending Review. The government has fundamentally reformed the process to make it zero-based, collaborative, and data-led, in order to ensure a laser-like focus on the biggest opportunities to rewire the state and deliver the Plan for Change.

At the Spending Review, the Budget in the autumn and across the Parliament, the government will continue to prioritise growing the economy to deliver change.

RESPONSES:

UK spending cuts ‘risk harm to most vulnerable’

Finance Secretary responds to Spring Statement

Spending cuts announced by the Chancellor risk harming some of the most vulnerable people in society, Finance Secretary Shona Robison has said.

Responding to the Spring Statement, Ms Robison said: “Today’s statement from the Chancellor will see austerity cuts being imposed on some of the most vulnerable people in our society. The UK Government appears to be trying to balance its books on the backs of disabled people.

“Not content with these cuts, the UK Government is still expected to short-change Scotland’s public services on additional employer National Insurance costs to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds. This will be felt in public services that people rely on up and down the country – services such as our NHS, GPs, dentists, social care providers, and universities.

“The UK Government’s choice to increase defence investment is welcome, but its choices to shortchange public services and deliver austerity cuts to some of the most vulnerable are deplorable.”

TRUSSELL:

Trussell responds to ‘catastrophic’ Spring Statement

Cara Hilton, Senior Policy Manager at Trussell in Scotland, said: “Today’s announcement has incredibly worrying implications for disabled people in Scotland.

“The insistence by the Treasury on driving through record cuts to disabled people’s social security to balance the books is both shocking and appalling. People at food banks are telling us they are terrified how they’ll survive.

“These brutal cuts to already precarious incomes won’t help more disabled people find work, but they will risk forcing more people to skip meals and turn to food banks to get by.

“Cuts come at a cost. Driving up hunger and hardship means more spending on already struggling public services, with increased hospital and GP visits a very likely outcome of these actions.

“Disabled people are already three times more likely to face hunger, and over three quarters of people in receipt of Universal Credit and disability benefits are already struggling to afford the essentials like food. This will only get worse.

“These cruel cuts are out of touch with what voters want from this government. The government says people voted for change in Westminster, but we know that seven in ten voters across political parties agree the social security for disabled people should at least be enough to cover essential living costs. This is a change for the worse, and it is disabled people who will pay the price.”

David, 46, has a bone disease and is terrified by the prospect of cuts to his disability benefits. He has recently been forced to turn to a Trussell food bank for support.

He said: “I am terrified now that the Chancellor has confirmed that my disability benefits will be cut. The bone tumours in my hips cause me pain everyday and force me to use crutches, and in the cold weather my symptoms worsen but I already can’t afford to put the heating on.

” I don’t know how I’ll survive. It’s not my fault I’m disabled, and I shouldn’t be punished for it.

“Life costs more if you’re disabled. Things like specialist equipment and travel to healthcare appointments all add up. PIP – which the government is brutally cutting – is there to account for these extra costs. It is not a luxury, and I shouldn’t need to use a food bank or turn to charities like Trussell for support.

“Cutting my benefits won’t get me back to work – it will just push me deeper into poverty.”

JOSEPH ROWNTREE FOUNDATION

“The Chancellor said today that she would not do anything to put household finances in danger Yet the government’s own assessment shows their cuts to health related benefits risk pushing 250,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.

“Their assessment also found:

800,000 will lose PIP according to the OBR
3m will lose money from changes to the main health element of UC, £500 a year for existing claimants, and £3000 for new claimants
£500m will come out of the carers benefits bill as 150,000 lose carers allowance or UC care element.

“The Chancellor said the world has changed, and today’s announcements places the burden of that changing world on the shoulders of those least able to bear the load. These cuts will harm people, deepening the hardship they already face.”

CHILD POVERTY ACTION GROUP:

Responding to today’s Spring Statement, chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group Alison Garnham said: “Stealth social security cuts bring neither stability nor security to struggling families and will push child poverty even higher.

“Growth and better living standards are not achieved by taking money from families with the least.

“Government must invest in social security support – not cut it – for the most vulnerable, or risk being remembered as the Labour administration under whose watch child poverty continued to rise.”

CARERS UK:

STUC:

INDEPENDENT ALLIANCE MPs:

KIM JOHNSON MP:

OCTOPUS ENERGY:

Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, said: “It’s good to see the focus on planning and other reforms that can unlock investment to help make Britain more productive and drive growth.

“We were also pleased to see the receipts from the Government’s sale of Bulb to Octopus funding 36,000 homes for armed forces families. It’s a sign of how business and Government can work together for the good of the country.”

FRONT PAGES:

MOMENTUM:

NEW ECONOMICS FOUNDATION:

JEREMY CORBYN:

PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER:

THE NATIONAL:

TRADES UNION CONGRESS (TUC):

Responding to today’s (Wednesday) Spring Statement, TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “Labour inherited a toxic economic legacy from the Conservatives. But at the Budget the Chancellor took the right call to invest in repairing our public services and infrastructure.

“To rebuild Britain this approach must continue long-term. In the face of strong global headwinds, we need to keep building stronger foundations at home. That must include protecting the most vulnerable.

“As the last 14 years have shown us – you cannot cut your way to growth. UK taxes are low as a share of GDP. Those with the broadest shoulders must continue to contribute more through a fairer tax system.

“And the Tories’ botched Brexit deal must be improved to boost growth and trade.”

On the government’s social security reforms, Paul said: “Ministers need to rethink their plans. Decisions that affect millions of people’s lives must be made with care – not as a last-minute response to changed fiscal forecasts.

“These changes mean many disabled people – whether they are in work or not – will be pushed into hardship.

“And removing support could even make it harder for some people to stay in their jobs.

“Disabled people need timely access to high quality healthcare, and accessible jobs – particularly in the towns and communities where there are fewest opportunities.”

On the public sector workforce, Paul added: “Public sector workers are key deliverers of national renewal.

“But after 14 years of Tory chaos and ruin, many feel burnt out and demoralised.

“It’s vital the government invests in these workers and recognises the key role they play in improving the services we all rely on.

“Any approach to transforming our public services must include clear workforce plans for every part of our public sector, developed in partnership with staff and unions.”

On the OBR’s growth forecasts, Paul said: “It is time to review both the role of the OBR and how it models the long-term impacts of public investment. Short-term changes in forecasts should not be driving long-term government decision-making.”

UNITE THE UNION:

UK FINANCE:

David Postings, Chief Executive Officer, UK Finance said: “The chancellor’s Spring Statement focused on stability and growth in the UK. We welcome the government’s continued commitment to growing the economy and the financial services sector is committed to playing its part in support.

“Building on recent positive regulatory reform plans, we now look forward to the upcoming Industrial Strategy, which will be key to unlocking further investment and delivering growth through various sectors, including financial services.”

MENTAL HEALTH FOUNDATION:

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP:

Charlie Nunn, Chief Executive Officer, Lloyds Banking Group said: “A safe and lasting home is the foundation for good lives and livelihoods, and we welcome this boost to building much-needed social and affordable homes.

“As the UK’s biggest commercial supporter of social housing, we’re working across the private, public and community sectors to help increase provision of good quality, genuinely affordable housing for those in need.”

UNITE HOSPITALITY:

DAILY MIRROR:

POVERTY ALLIANCE:

Responding to the Spring Statement, Poverty Alliance chief executive Peter Kelly said: “People in the UK voted for change at the last election because they were desperate for a government that delivers a just and compassionate country. Today’s announcements undermine that ambition.

“It is completely unjust to, once again, balance the books on the backs of the those on the lowest incomes. Today’s statement layered additional cuts to our social security system on top of those announced last week. That will have a devastating impact for households across the country.

“The Government’s own analysis shows that these changes will push at least 250,000 people, including 50,000 children into poverty, undermining the forthcoming child poverty strategy before it’s even published.

“These cuts will push people into debt and destitution. They will continue the need for food banks. They will stop people heating their homes, or charging essential medical and support equipment.

“People know that there is no justification for these cuts. It does not have to be like this. The Chancellor could scrap her self-imposed fiscal rules or use our taxation system to raise the revenue needed for the better future we all want to see.

“The UK Government is re-running a failed experiment – austerity will not deliver economic growth. And it certainly won’t deliver a just and compassionate society.”

SCOTTISH HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION:

Deep concern about impact of UK Government’s Spring Statement

The Scottish Human Rights Commission (SHRC) is deeply concerned about the impact of announcements on the future of the UK welfare system in the UK Government’s Spring Statement, especially for disabled people and their families and communities.

Plans to cut the health element of Universal Credit will have a direct effect on the human rights of those disabled people in Scotland who are unable to work. Although payments to support people with the additional costs of disability are devolved in Scotland, the UK Government’s proposals will have negative consequences for the Scottish Budget.

Severe economic hardship

Earlier this month, the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which holds governments around the world to account for their record on human rights, warned that changes to the UK welfare system introduced since 2012 have “eroded the rights to social security and to an adequate standard of living, disproportionally affecting persons with disabilities, low-income families and workers in precarious employment” and warned that these changes have resulted in “severe economic hardship”.

Last year, the UN Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities reiterated its position that the UK welfare system is leading to ‘grave and systematic’ violations of disabled people’s rights. Over the past week many disabled people, Disabled People’s Organisations and civil society organisations have expressed shock and fear about what further changes to the system could mean for people.

Professor Angela O’Hagan, Chair of the SHRC, says: “With these announcements, the UK Government is not only disregarding the expert findings and recommendations of human rights bodies, but actively pursuing regressive changes that further deteriorate the rights of disabled people in Scotland.

“Indeed, these steps may potentially represent a breach of the UK’s obligations under international human rights law, particularly its duty to progressively realise the rights to social security, an adequate standard of living, and non-discrimination.

“Social security, an adequate standard of living, and non-discrimination are not optional benefits — they are binding human rights that the UK is required to respect, protect, and fulfil for everyone.

“These proposals fly in the face of both the letter and the spirit of the UK’s human rights obligations.”

VOLUNTEER SCOTLAND:

We share the concerns voiced by many third sector organisations regarding the Chancellor’s Spring Statement on Wednesday (writes Volunteer Sotland’s SARAH LATTO).

The significant cuts to health-related benefits have the potential to push more people into financial difficulty. This would create significant additional demand for third sector services and the volunteers that support them.

This comes at a time when the third sector is facing unprecedented pressures, and volunteer participation is in significant decline. Given the reported challenges many organisations are experiencing in recruiting new volunteers, this could add considerable pressure to existing volunteers who give their time to support people in crisis. This is not sustainable and could contribute to a further decline in volunteer participation.

Last week we published research showing that weekly participation in formal volunteering can lead to wellbeing benefits worth an estimated £1000 per person per year.

This same research also found that the effect of volunteering on mental wellbeing for people with a disability or long-term health condition was seven times larger than for people without.

Despite these clear benefits, we are concerned that the announced reduction in welfare spend will prevent many people in receipt of benefits from pursuing volunteering.

Our ongoing research regarding the impact of the cost of living crisis on volunteering suggests that the capacity of many people to volunteer is increasingly diminished.

This is because of competing demands on their time and rising stress or anxiety regarding their finances. The planned changes to welfare spend will likely exacerbate this situation further, meaning many people in receipt of health-related benefits may feel unable to participate in an activity that is likely to improve their health and wellbeing.

As a result, we join many voices from the third sector in urging the Chancellor to rethink her plans around welfare spend.

FRASER OF ALLANDER INSTITUTE:

Spring Statement reaction: a second fiscal event of the year after all

The Chancellor may have tried to portray it otherwise, but her words in the Commons and the length of the scorecard of measures published by the OBR betray a different story: this really was a fiscal event, and a significant one at that.

It was also one where the forecasting process was nowhere as smooth as we hoped it might be given how much hay the Chancellor made out of strengthening the role of the OBR in the Autumn. Instead, we have seen a number of measures either uncertified or included only on a provisional basis, and with no time to evaluate their supply-side effects.

Given how long these measures have been speculated about, the last-minute tweaks and the scramble to announce further welfare reforms to make the sums add up to the £5bn in savings are pretty disheartening. It also makes us wonder about the reasons for announcing the headline amounts last week, before ultimate certification by the OBR.

It is not credible that the Chancellor or the Work and Pensions Secretary were not aware of the OBR’s concerns at the time of the announcement, and so we are left to wonder why figures that weren’t final were bandied about beforehand instead of being left for the appropriate fiscal event.

The underlying picture deteriorated significantly, and so spending cuts have filled the gap

As widely predicted, the Chancellor would have seen her fiscal rules broken had she not made significantly policy decisions, which collectively cut current spending by nearly £9 billion a year by 2029-30.

Chart: How the Chancellor restored her headroom

Source: OBR

Debt servicing costs are the main reason for the deterioration. Higher market interest rates raised the cost of servicing government by just over £10 billion by the end of the decade, more than wiping the starting headroom. Faced with this, and after staking her credibility on complying with the fiscal rules, the Chancellor decided to mostly lean on the spending side of the ledger to essentially get back to where she started.

This means a heavily backloaded set of policy decisions, with spending cuts coming from 2027-28 onwards. Changes to incapacity and disability benefits mostly affect spending from then on, by £1.8 billion in that year and rising to £4.6 billion by 2029-30.

Changes to the path of day-to-day departmental spending also rise to over £5 billion by 2029-30, although some of that is offset by specific investment programmes such as employment support, DWP delivery and HMRC compliance. On net, current departmental spending has been cut by £3.6 billion by 2029-30 relative to plans.

There have also been some increasing in the tax take. Much of it is from compliance activity and tax debt collection, although there are also additional council tax increases allowed in England and increases to passport and visa fees. Receipts are higher by £2.3 billion by 2029-30 because of measures.

But the Chancellor has had to run just to stand still. She is just as close to missing her fiscal rule as she was in October, and that leaves her exposed to any weaknesses or market movements between now and the Autumn. Things may well turn out for the better – but that is far from guaranteed, and it’s as close to a 50-50 bet as it gets.

Chart: Headroom against the main fiscal target since 2010

Source: OBR

What do the announcements mean for the Scottish Budget?

In the very short-term, there is a small amount of additional funding (£28 million) for the Scottish Government in 2025-26 due to a small increase in departmental spending at UK Government level.

Towards the end of the forecast, however, the picture is significantly more challenging in terms of what it means for Holyrood’s finances. The cuts in departmental budgets announced by the UK Government – even after accounting for some consequentials from employment support programmes and DWP delivery of welfare reforms – mean significant reductions in funding for the Scottish Government relative to what was previously included in the forecasts. Of particular significance are the £200 million and £435 million cuts in implied funding for the Scottish Budget in 2028-29 and 2029-30.

The current forecast points to the PIP reforms reducing the block grant adjustment for social security devolution by increasing amounts, from £177 million in 2027-28 to £455 million in 2029-30. This is in line with what we discussed in recent blogs.

Put together, and in the absence of any other changes, the Scottish Budget would be around £900 million worse off on the current side in 2029-30 than previously projected. On the other hand, some additional capital spending on areas which are devolved in Scotland – so aside from the defence spending increases – are expected to raise the Scottish Government’s capital budget by nearly £250 million by 2029-30 relative to current plans.

Chart: Effects of the Spring Statement measures on the Scottish Budget

Source: OBR

There’s still much we don’t know about the welfare reforms

One key policy change from last week’s Green Paper that the OBR have not been able to cost is the removal of the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) that currently determines whether a person is eligible for the Universal Credit (UC) health element. The UK Government have proposed that the PIP assessment will be used instead.

The OBR note the absence of key policy detail, including how entitlement will operate in Scotland where PIP is being phased out. They do state that they expect the policy to have a “material” fiscal impact, both on spending on UC but this could be offset by an increase in people claiming PIP. The labour market response of this (as with most of the other Green Paper policies) is also yet to be analysed by the OBR.

These changes will directly impact on people in Scotland as UC is a reserved policy, but as already noted, how this will happen given that PIP will soon not exist in Scotland, is unknown. The number of people impacted could be significant. The Scottish Government could mitigate this impact through its own social security top up powers but, as with the recently announced mitigation of the two-child limit in UC, would need to be able to find the money to do so from within its own budget.

But distributional analysis shows significant numbers of people will be worse off

Alongside the Spring Statement documents, the UK Government also update their distributional analysis (the differential impact of policies on poorer, middle, and higher income households). The impact of the Spring Statement, the policies from the Spring Statement are added to the policies from the Autumn Statement, making it difficult to isolate the impact of the Spring Statement, although the regressive nature of the welfare measures is clear to see: those in the lower half of the income distribution are facing most of the cuts.

Separately, the UK Government has produced a statement on the impact of the health and disability reforms.

This makes for sobering reading. The impact of changes to the eligibility for PIP will affect 800,000 people who will no longer be eligible for the Daily Living component. They note a further 150,000 people will not receive Carer’s Allowance of the UC Carer element as a result. These numbers are for England and Wales only given that disability benefits are devolved.

These results, on their own, will increase the number of working age people in poverty by 250,000 and 50,000 children. The UK Government are careful to say that these estimates do not account for any employment impact of those who lose benefits subsequently moving into work, and we will need to wait for the OBR to judge on the strength of these employment effects to understand the potential for offsetting of these numbers.

The reduction and or freezing of the UC health element will affect Scottish claimants as well as those in England and Wales. 2.25 million people who are current claimants will be affected by the freeze and 730,000 new claimants will receive the new lower rate and freeze. A further 50,000 working age people will be in poverty as a result of these changes.

There is as yet no analysis of the impact of the abolition of the Work Capability Assessment in UC, and the only impact that is shown is the reversal of a 2023 change to the descriptors in the Work Capability Assessment, which will not apply given the decision to abolish it.

We’ll have to wait until the OBR has been able to look at the whole policy package in aggregate before we understand the full scale of the impact both on the UK and Scotland. But it is clear from what we know so far that this is a package of measures that will raise poverty across the UK.

How does departmental spending look in historical context?

In October, the Chancellor announced significant increases in departmental spending. But we and others also noticed how frontloaded some of those announcements were.

This has been made even more so by the changes at this forecast to the latter years of the projections. Day-to-day departmental spending per person is now forecast to grow by a strong 3.4% in real terms in 2025-26, slowing to 1.5% in 2026-27 and remaining at 0.6% a year for the rest of the decade.

We’ll leave others to decide on words to characterise this path of spending. We’ll instead note that this leaves spending per person only 8% higher than it was in 2007-08. And as a share of national income – a better measure of affordability and of the Government’s prioritisation of the country’s resources – there is a slight increase in spending in the short-term. But day-to-day departmental spending then falls back by 0.4 percentage points by the end of the decade relative to its peak of 16.1 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 and 2026-27.

Chart: Resource departmental spending per person in real terms and as a share of GDP since 2007-08

Source: OBR, FAI analysis

Celebrities urge government to rethink devastating cuts to disabled people’s social security

High-profile names including Sir Stephen Fry, Stanley Tucci, Aisling Bea, Levi Roots, Guy Garvey, Dame Arlene Phillips, Charlotte Ritchie and Jed Mercurio have spoken out against the UK government’s proposals to slash financial support for disabled people.
Comedian Rosie Jones: “Disabled people are scared of what the future holds”.
Actor Brian Cox: “So many people having to turn to food banks is a stain on this country”.
The comments come as new polling by Trussell reveals that 7 in 10 people think social security should at least pay for disabled people’s essential living costs.
The anti-poverty charity has branded the cuts as ‘cruel, irresponsible and out of touch’ with what the public want

Celebrities including Rosie Jones, Sir Stephen Fry and Stanley Tucci have united to express their outrage at the social security cuts announced on Wednesday, saying that they risk pushing even more disabled people to food banks.

The UK government, who were elected on manifesto pledges to end the need for emergency food parcels and to make sure Universal Credit tackles poverty, has published proposals that will make it harder for disabled people to get the payments that help them cover additional costs that they face such as purchasing specialist equipment or travel to healthcare services.

Comedian Rosie Jones, who has cerebral palsy, spoke out about the potential impact of these cuts, saying: “Disabled people are scared of what the future holds if there’s cuts to disability payments, as they are already not enough to cover life’s essentials. Disabled people are far more likely to need to use a food bank and further cuts will only deepen the hardship they are facing.”

Polling done this week by Trussell, an anti-poverty charity which supports a community of 1,400 food banks, indicated that 60% of Brits think the UK government is ‘doing badly’ on reducing the number of people experiencing poverty across the UK.

Actor Brian Cox, who experienced poverty as a child, urged the Government to rethink the plans when he said: “The fact that so many people are having to turn to food banks is a stain on this country.

“This government vowed to tackle the need for emergency food parcels in the UK, yet this decision risks even more people having to seek support. It makes no sense and will have a lasting impact on the lives of so many people already finding it difficult to afford life’s essentials.”

Trussell has already expressed concern that the cuts will have a significant impact on people who are already facing hunger and hardship with 75% of people referred to one of their food banks living in a household where someone is disabled.

Recent research by Trussell indicated that three quarters (77%) of people getting Universal Credit and health or disability payments are already having to go without essentials. Four in 10 (43%) are already missing meals to try and keep up with other essential costs. A fifth (19%) have had to turn to a food bank in just the last month.

Calling for a reversal of the proposals, Sir Stephen Fry said: “Cuts should be for people who can best afford them, not for disabled people, who are amongst the most vulnerable and overlooked of all our population.

“The social security system should be rooted in justice and compassion, fairness and need. It’s not too late to rethink this.”

The celebrities are not alone in thinking that government support should be enough to ensure that no one needs a food bank to survive. Trussell’s data shows that 83% of Brits think the Government is responsible for ensuring disabled people’s essential needs are met.

Two of Trussell’s Ambassadors reflected this, adding their voices to the call for change by saying:

Television writer Jed Mercurio: “While our social security system requires regular review and reform to ensure it targets people most in need, these cuts will only increase the likelihood of people living with a disability needing to use a food bank.”
Entrepreneur Levi Roots: “From my work with Trussell, I know disabled people in receipt of Universal Credit are already having to make impossible decisions between feeding their children and heating their homes. We need compassionate solutions that make food banks obsolete. Cuts to disability payments will simply keep food banks in business for longer.”

Actor Stanley Tucci has encouraged people to speak out about the risk of the cuts, saying: “It breaks my heart to know so many people in a country as wealthy and developed as UK are experiencing hunger.

“Through my work with Trussell, I know that the reality of these cuts will be parents in disabled families having to skip meals so that they can feed their children. Things don’t have to be this way. We must shout as loud as we can to let the UK government know this plan is wrong.”

If you want to share your thoughts on the proposed cuts, you can email your MP via the Trussell website at https://action.trussell.org.uk/disability-cuts.

Biggest shake up to welfare system in a generation ‘to get Britain working’

UNIVERSAL CONDEMNATION OF LABOUR PLANS

Largest welfare reforms for a generation to help sick and disabled people who can and have the potential to work into jobs – backed by a £1 billion investment, unveiled by the Work & Pensions Secretary today

Work Capability Assessment to be scrapped and “right to try” work guarantee to be introduced in drive to tear down barriers to work
Changes will unlock work, boost employment, and tackle the broken benefits system to unlock growth as part of the government’s Plan for Change

Record £1 billion employment support measures have been announced ‘to help disabled and long-term sick people back into work’.

The new measures are designed to ensure a welfare system that is fit for purpose and available for future generations – opening up employment opportunities, boosting economic growth and tackling the spiralling benefits bill, while also ensuring those who cannot work get the support they need as part of the government’s Plan for Change.

This will end years of inaction, which has led to one in eight young people not currently in work, education or training and 2.8 million people economically inactive due to long term sickness – one of the highest rates in the G7.

The number of people receiving one of the main types of health and disability benefit, Personal Independence Payments (PIP), has also risen rapidly and is becoming unsustainable.

Since the pandemic, the number of working-age people receiving PIP has more than doubled from 15,300 to 35,100 a month. The number of young people (16-24) receiving PIP per month has also skyrocketed from 2,967 to 7,857 a month. Over the next five years, if no action is taken, the number of working age people claiming PIP is expected to increase from 2 million in 2021 to 4.3 million, costing £34.1 billion annually.

All this has driven the spiralling health and disability benefits bill, forecast to reach £70 billion a year by the end of the decade, or more than £1 billion a week. This is equivalent to more than a third of the NHS budget, and more than three times as much as is spent on policing and keeping communities safe.

Speaking in Parliament today, Liz Kendall announced a sweeping package of reforms to overhaul the system, so it better supports those who need it while tearing down barriers to work including:

Ending reassessments for disabled people who will never be able to work and people with lifelong conditions to ensure they can live with dignity and security

Scrapping the controversial Work Capability Assessment to end the dysfunctional process that drives people into dependency – delivering on the government’s manifesto commitment to reform or replace it

Providing improved employment support backed by £1 billion – one of the biggest packages of employment support for sick and disabled people ever – including new tailored support conversations for people on health and disability benefits to break down barriers and unlock work

Legislating to protect those on health and disability benefits from reassessment or losing their payments if they take a chance on work.

To ensure the welfare system is available for those with the greatest needs now and long into the future, the government has made bold decisions to improve its sustainability and protect those who need it most, including:

Reintroducing reassessments for people on incapacity benefits who have the capability to work to ensure they have the right support and aren’t indefinitely written off.
Targeting Personal Independence Payments for those with higher needs by changing the eligibility requirement to a minimum score of four on at least one of the daily living activities to receive the daily living element of the benefit, in addition to the existing eligibility criteria.
Rebalancing payment levels in Universal Credit to improve the Standard Allowance. Raising it above inflation by 2029/30, adding £775 annually in cash terms.
Consulting on delaying access to the health element of Universal Credit until someone is aged 22 and reinvesting savings into work support and training opportunities through the Youth Guarantee.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “We inherited a fundamentally broken welfare system from the previous government. It does not work for the people it is supposed to support, businesses who need workers or taxpayers who foot the bill.

“This government will always protect the most severely disabled people to live with dignity. But we’re not prepared to stand back and do nothing while millions of people – especially young people – who have potential to work and live independent lives, instead become trapped out of work and abandoned by the system. It would be morally bankrupt to let their life chances waste away.

“When I talk about opportunity for all, I mean it. That’s why we are bringing forward the biggest changes to the welfare system in a generation and improving support for those who need it. Ensuring those who can work do work is not only right, but it will also improve living standards and drive growth, the number one priority in our Plan for Change.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Our social security system must be there for all of us when we need it, now and into the future. That means helping people who can work to do so, protecting those most in need, and delivering respect and dignity for all.

“Millions of people have been locked out of work, and we can do better for them. Disabled people and those with health conditions who can work deserve the same choices and chances as everyone else.

“That’s why we’re introducing the most far-reaching reforms in a generation, with £1 billion a year being invested in tailored support that can be adapted to meet their changing circumstances – including their changing health – while also scrapping the failed Work Capability Assessment.

“This will mean fairness for disabled people and those with long term health conditions, but also for the taxpayers who fund it as these measures bring down the benefits bill.

“At the same time, we will ensure that our welfare system protects people. There will always be some people who cannot work because of their disability or health condition. Protecting people in need is a principle we will never compromise on.”

In her statement to Parliament, the Work and Pensions Secretary outlined the clear case for change to the welfare system and set out her commitment to ensuring that disabled people and those with a health condition have the same opportunities to work as anyone else.

In particular, she highlighted that the UK has one of the highest reported rates of working-age people out of work due to ill health in Western Europe and the UK is the only major economy whose employment rate hasn’t recovered since the pandemic – exacerbated by a broken NHS with millions of people on waiting lists.

The government has already made huge progress to fix the NHS, including by hitting the manifesto commitment to deliver over two million extra elective care appointments seven months early, and bringing forward a wider programme for NHS reform through the rollout of community diagnostic centres and 10-year plan. The Health Secretary has also sent crack teams spearheaded by top clinicians into areas of high economic inactivity, and the latest data shows waiting lists in these areas have reduced at almost double the rate of the rest of the country.

The reformed system will be built on a straightforward guarantee: any disabled person or person with a long-term health condition who is claiming out of work benefits will be able to access high quality, tailored help into a job. It will also mean that those who cannot work will always get the support they need. In Scotland and Wales, we will work closely with the devolved governments as we develop this package of support.

The reforms are based on five key principles:

Protecting disabled people who can’t and won’t ever be able to work and supporting them to live with dignity by:

Income Protection: Those currently in receipt of UC health will benefit from the increased standard allowance and will not be affected by plans to reduce UC health in future.
Extra Financial Support: For people who receive the new rate of UC health in the future system, we are proposing a new premium for individuals with severe, life-long health conditions who will never be able to work. The details, eligibility criteria and rate of this premium will be set out in due course.
Ending Reassessments: Reassessments for disabled people and people with life-long conditions who will never be able to work will be scrapped.
Improving Safeguarding Practices: The government will look at how safeguarding practices for the most vulnerable can be improved and improve experiences with the system, working with stakeholders to identify areas for improvement.

Delivering better and more tailored employment support to get more people off welfare and into work. This includes:

£1 Billion employment package to deliver tailored support for disabled people and those with long-term conditions.
New Support Conversations to provide earlier opportunities for people with health conditions to discuss work goals and available help.
Investing in the Youth Guarantee by delaying access to UC health element until age 22 and reinvesting savings into work support and training for young people.

Stopping people from falling into long-term economic inactivity through early intervention and support by:

Access to Work Scheme: We will consult on improvements to help people start and stay in work with reasonable adjustments including aids, appliances and assistive technology. These would be the first substantive changes to Access to Work since its introduction in 1994
Unemployment Insurance: We will reform contributory benefits (ESA and JSA) into a single, non-means tested, time-limited benefit for those who have paid into the system to ensure people get the support they need to find a new job that makes the most of their skills, contributing to a dynamic and productive economy.

Restoring trust and fairness in the system by fixing the broken assessment process that drives people into dependency on welfare by:

Scrapping the WCA to end the labelling of people as either ‘can or can’t work’ and consulting on a new single assessment. Under the new system, any extra financial support for health conditions (including PIP, ESA or UC health) will be assessed via a new single assessment which will be based on the PIP assessment – considering on the impact of disability on daily living, not on capacity to work.
Increasing Face-to-Face Assessments for PIP and the WCA to improve the quality of assessment decision while ensuring we continue to meet the needs of those with who may require a different method of assessment.
Longer term reform of the PIP Assessment – In the long term we will set out broader reforms to the PIP assessment, and intend first to carry out a review involving experts and stakeholders to adapt and improve it.
Right to Try Guarantee: which will ensure someone trying work or on a pathway towards employment will never lead to an immediate reassessment or award review.
Restarting Mandatory Reassessments: We will reintroduce reassessments for incapacity benefits, with exceptions for those who will never work and those under special rules for end-of-life care. Reassessments have largely been switched off since 2021, leaving people stuck on benefits when they could be helped into work and to improve their quality of life.

Ensuring the system is financially sustainable to keep providing for those who need it most by:

Changing PIP Eligibility: PIP will be targeted more on those with higher needs by requiring a minimum of four points on one daily living activity, in addition to the existing eligibility criteria.. DWP will work with DHSC to ensure that existing people who claim PIP who may no longer be entitled to the benefit following an award review under new eligibility rules have their health and eligible care needs met. The government is consulting on how best to achieve this.
Rebalancing Universal Credit: by improving the Standard Allowance to provide more adequate support. The government plans to raise the Standard Allowance above inflation by 2029/30, adding £775 in cash terms annually. This aims to avoid people having to choose between employment or adequate financial support. This change addresses the current issue where the health element rate is double that of the standard allowance, creating an incentive for people to prove they are unfit to work to claim the health element and access greater financial support.

Helen Barnard, director of policy at Trussell, said: “We’re deeply concerned by the cuts announced to disability payments today.

People at food banks have told us they are terrified of how they might survive. We welcome the positive proposals from the Department for Work and Pensions to boost the basic rate to Universal Credit and invest in employment support. However, we fear these steps will be undermined by a Treasury drive to make short-term savings.

“Huge cuts risk pushing more disabled people to the doors of food banks, and will have devastating consequences for us all. The UK government was elected on manifesto pledges to end the need for emergency food parcels. This isn’t what people voted for.

“Disabled people are already three times more likely to face hunger, and three quarters of people at food banks are disabled or live with someone who is. Our social security system should be rooted in justice and compassion, able to be there for us all, especially when we need it most.

“This isn’t a done deal. With at least a year before any cuts come into force, there’s still time for the Prime Minister and Chancellor to rethink and make good on today’s promise to restore trust and fairness in the social security system.”

The TUC said: ’11 General Secretaries of our trade union affiliates have written to the government to raise “profound concerns” about today’s welfare cuts targeted at disabled people. The labour movement must stand together with campaigners, charities & carers to resist”

#disabilitybenefit

Responding to today’s statement by Liz Kendall MP, Poverty Alliance policy & campaigns manager Ruth Boyle said: “People in the UK are desperate for a government that delivers a just and compassionate country.

“They want to see an end to deepening poverty, debt, destitution, and hunger in their communities. Many will be distressed, disappointed, scared, and angry at today’s announcements.

“The plans to cut the health element of Universal Credit are wrong and unjust. Cutting vital financial support to disabled people won’t help them into paid work – but it is likely to move them towards poverty.

“Equally unjust is the idea of making it virtually impossible for under-23s to get Universal Credit health support. The Government is punishing young people who aren’t fit for work simply because of their age.

“These changes are driven by a desire for financial cost savings, rather than helping people access the support they need. Positive proposals like personalised support to help people into work and a Right-to-Try will be undermined by cuts which force people into further and deeper poverty.

"The plans to cut the health element of Universal Credit are wrong and unjust. Cutting vital financial support to disabled people won't help them into paid work – but it is likely to move them towards poverty." https://t.co/gLnkE8FNAk pic.twitter.com/CZAIn0O6kL
— The Poverty Alliance (@PovertyAlliance) March 18, 2025

“Personal Independence Payments are a vital part of the social security system, and even though we have a replacement Adult Disability Payment in Scotland, there are still many people here who are on PIP.

“These social security benefits support people’s basic freedom – whether they are in work or not. They help cover some of the extra living costs that are forced on disabled people. The Government now plans to make it harder for them to get that vital support, denying them a full place in society, and undoubtedly pushing many towards debt and destitution.

“We urge the Scottish Government to maintain its commitment to justice and compassion, and to make sure the Adult Disability Payment still supports the freedom and rights of disabled people.

“It is shameful to try to balance the books on the backs of disabled people and households that are already struggling to keep their heads above water. Instead, the Government should do the responsible thing and use their tax powers to unlock our country’s wealth for investment in a strong social foundation.

“And they can scrap their self-imposed fiscal rules with a plan to help everyone build a better life for their households, and a better future for our country.”

Commenting on the Green Paper’s plans for social security reform announced by the government today (Tuesday), TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “During 14 years of Tory failure, too many people were written off. Millions of workers have been left without proper support to move into work or progress in good jobs, and too many people with disabilities or ill health have not had access to the support they need.

“But change must be done in the right way. While we welcome the decision not to freeze PIP, this package will still lead to significant cuts in entitlements for some disabled people.

“As well as ensuring that those with the most severe disabilities are protected, we urge ministers to reconsider the scale of proposed cuts in disabled people’s incomes.

“Disabled people who are unable to work must not be pushed further into hardship.”

Commenting on the Green Paper’s wider proposals, Paul added: “Action to boost access to quality employment programmes and ensure that Jobcentre work coaches can provide quality and meaningful support is welcome. As too are proposals to strengthen contributory benefits.

“This needs to be accompanied by ongoing investment in the NHS, including mental health services. Better healthcare can transform lives.

“The government’s plan to Make Work Pay is also crucial to driving up the quality of jobs in Britain and ensuring more people have access to decent work.”

Transport union, RMT has criticised Labour’s decision to cut welfare spending by up to £5bn by 2030.

Eddie Dempsey RMT general secretary said: “Welfare cuts target people who rely on support to survive, including disabled people, carers, the unemployed, and those in insecure work.

“For the past 40 years our economy has been marked by low investment, wage suppression and super-high profits.

“Our economy needs to be fundamentally restructured so we can invest in housing, infrastructure and services to create well paid jobs and provide an adequate safety net for those who fall on hard times.

“There is an enormous amount of wealth in this country and the Labour government should be using the economic levers at their disposal to capture it from the rich.

“Billions could be recouped by the treasury through levies on wealth, the closure of tax loopholes, and extracting excess corporate profits.

“RMT stands with all in our working-class communities, including the disabled and unemployed.”

OXFAM Scotland tweeted: ‘Just a reminder there’s no shortage of money in the UK, just a shortage of political will to go out & tax it.

‘While more people risk being locked into hardship/deeper poverty, the ballooning bank balances of the UK’s richest millionaires/billionaires get off virtually scot-free’

The Disability Policy Centre’s Interim Director of Research, Arun Veerappan, response to the Government’s release of the Green Paper this afternoon.

Green MSP slams Labour betrayal of disabled people and calls on MPs to fight back

Scottish Green’s co-leader and MSP for Lothian region Lorna Slater is calling on Labour MPs to fight back on the inhumane cuts that the UK government are proposing to hit their fiscal targets.

In the Westminster government’s latest controversial move, it has announced a package of changes expected to affect some of the UK’s most severely disabled people. The measures will deny benefits for thousands of people across the country.

Lorna Slater MSP for Lothian region said: “These cuts will make a cruel and dehumanising system even more brutal than it already is. They will spread pain and misery across every community.

“ This decision is immoral. You can’t cut £5 billion of support without causing real harm to disabled people.

“ None of this is inevitable. Labour could choose to bring in a wealth tax that collects a fair and justified share from the richest people to invest in the services we all rely on.

“Labour are doubling down on the Tory idea that you can work your way out of disability. They are sending a cruel and dangerous message that only people who can boost our economy are worth supporting. They promised an end to austerity, but this goes even further than anything that the Tories ever dared.”

“The fact that they are choosing to punish the people with the least tells us everything we need to know about Labour’s values. The millions of people who waited 14 long years to get rid of the Tories deserve so much better than this.”

‘Cuts to benefits announced today have clearly been motivated by a desire to make short-term savings to meet arbitrary fiscal rules, says New Economics Foundation’s Head of Social Polict Tom Pollard.

‘They’re not going to help ill and disabled people, they’re only going to create more problems.’

Former Labour Party leader and now Independent MP Jeremy Corbyn said: “This is a seminal moment: a Labour government cutting disability benefits. Not just continuing Tory levels. Cutting.

“This comes after a week of speculation, itself an act of cruelty by a government toying with people’s dignity. These cuts are disgraceful – and will cost lives.”

Scope charity commented: “These plans will be catastrophic for disabled people’s living standards. Nearly half of families living in poverty already include someone who is disabled. Now the government is choosing to penalise some of the poorest people in our society.

“We welcome the investment in tailored, non-compulsory employment support. But ripping £5 billion out of the benefits system by 2030 will completely undermine this positive step.

“Countless disabled people, charities, MPs, and experts are urging the government to think again. And we’re not backing down. The consultation is likely to receive an overwhelming response. We urge the government to listen to disabled people and think again.

“Over the coming days, we’ll analyse all the details in the government’s plans. We’ll then share more information about what these changes mean and who could be affected as soon as we can. We’ll also share ways you can have your say in the consultation.

‘This is an especially worrying time for many disabled people. If you’re concerned about these changes, you can contact our helpline for advice and support.

Call us free on 0808 800 3333, or visit our website for more ways to get in touch:

https://scope.org.uk/helpline

‘If you need to talk to someone about how you’re feeling, day or night, Samaritans are here to help. Call 116 123 for free, or visit their website https://samaritans.org “

Money and Mental Health response to government welfare green paper

Today the government has published its welfare green paper, which outlines its proposals to reform the welfare system.

In particular, the green paper sets out plans to make it harder for people to qualify for Personal Independence Payments (PIP) — a benefit which people with disabilities and long-term ill-health can claim to help cover the extra costs associated with their disability, and which is not connected to work. In addition, people aged under 22 will not be able to qualify for the health top-up element of Universal Credit.

The government has also announced £1bn additional funding for personalised employment support to help people with disabilities move into work, and that people receiving benefits will be given a “right to try” work without losing their benefits entitlement.

Commenting on the proposals, Helen Undy, Chief Executive of the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute, said: “PIP is an absolute lifeline for thousands of people with mental health problems.

“It can be the difference between being able to afford basic things like a phone to call your crisis team or help to clean your home, or living in disarray and increasing isolation. Making it harder to access will jeopardise people’s financial security and cause serious distress, which won’t set up people to go back into work and to thrive.

“These changes will mean that needing help to wash or get dressed because of your mental health wouldn’t be enough to qualify for PIP. The government says it will ensure people with ‘genuine need’ aren’t affected, but we’re really concerned that these new reforms will take us further back to the days when people with mental health problems were treated as less worthy of help than those with physical health issues.

“The new ‘right to try’ a job without losing the benefits is welcome, as is the funding for personalised employment support for people with disabilities or health conditions. But introducing these measures alongside cuts to PIP and stopping young people from getting incapacity benefits will do more harm than good.

“It is a short sighted approach that will have a devastating impact on many people’s finances and mental health, and we urge the government to rethink these plans.”

Mikey Erhardt, Policy Officer at Disability Rights UK, said: “The minister stood up today and made clear that, after months of rumours, media speculation and spin, these reforms are not about supporting Disabled people into work, but making brutal and reckless cuts of £5 billion. That is up from £3 billion just a few weeks ago.

“The rise in claims is driven by the increase in the retirement age, record NHS waiting lists, inadequate education and mental health support for young Disabled people and a complete failure to tackle the disability employment and pay gaps. Yet the government has decided to create a rhetorical smokescreen around the depth of cuts it’s going to make.

“The government intends to bar young Disabled people from receiving the Universal Credit health component until they are 22. That is alongside their promise to significantly increase assessments at scale without making the assessment process safer for those going through the system right now.

“These measures mark dangerous cuts for all Disabled people. Furthermore, altering the PIP award criteria will make it harder for those who need support to qualify.

“The minister’s assertion that 1000s more face-to-face assessments will be more accurate is laughable; we know that in-person assessment causes more stress and worry and often leads to inaccurate findings from assessors.

“Let’s be clear: there is nothing ambitious about cutting support from those who need it and that’s what today’s announcements were really about. Rising claims for personal independence payment reflect not a problem with Disabled people but rather reflect successive government’s failure to do even the bare minimum to create a more equitable society.”

Mental Health Foundation responded:

Responding to the Government’s proposed changes to welfare and work announced today, Carers Trust’s CEO, Kirsty McHugh, said: “In the midst of today’s announcements on welfare reform, we cannot lose sight of the nation’s carers. Two-thirds of carers have been forced to give up work or cut back on hours because of their caring role.

“Many would like to work if they were able to access flexible jobs and the right employment support – sadly this is rarely on offer. But for many carers, work isn’t an option – either because of the toll of their caring role or their own ill health.

“Proposals to tighten eligibility criteria for benefits will strike fear into the heart of many carers. Around half a million carers look after someone receiving Personal Independence Payments (PIP), and nearly 150,000 people rely on both PIP and Carer’s Allowance.

“Disabled people and their carers are already among the most vulnerable in our society and more likely to live in poverty. Reducing their access to a financial safety net could push them over the edge.

“Carers already prop up our ailing health and social care system and we cannot introduce welfare changes that leave carers again picking up the pieces. We therefore welcome the commitment in the Green Paper to consider the impact of these changes on carers.”

Trussell: Welfare and disability benefit cuts risk pushing even more people to food banks

CHARITIES CALL FOR ESSENTIALS GUARANTEE

Almost one in five people receiving Universal Credit and disability benefits used a food bank in the last month
Hunger and hardship are already at record levels. Welfare and disability benefit cuts risk pushing even more people to the doors of food banks, says anti-poverty charity Trussell
More than three quarters (77%) of people claiming Universal Credit and disability benefits have gone without essentials in the last six months.
Just over four in ten (43%) people claiming Universal Credit and disability benefit have skipped meals to keep up with other essential costs in the last three months.
The anti-poverty charity is urging the UK government not to cut welfare and disability benefits, which are already not enough to live on.
Trussell is calling on the UK government to take steps towards an Essentials Guarantee in Universal Credit, so the basic rate at least always covers the cost of life’s essentials.

Trussell has published new research that demonstrates the inadequacy of social security for disabled people across the UK.

The research, conducted by YouGov on behalf of Trussell, reveals that almost one in five (19%) people receiving Universal Credit and disability benefits have used a food bank in the last month, while a shocking 77% have gone without essentials in the last six months.

Just over four in ten (43%) people claiming Universal Credit and disability benefits have skipped meals to keep up with other essential costs in the last three months, while more than a third (37%) said they had not been able to keep their home warm enough this winter.

Meanwhile, a quarter (25%) of people in receipt of Universal Credit and disability benefits have had to choose between paying for heating/food, or getting a bed/bedding in the last three months.

“I’m terrified the government will stop or cut disability benefits and if they do, I can’t bear to think of the outcome,” said one person in their survey response.

Another person said: “It’s just going to get worse, my health will get worse. I won’t be able to renew my car insurance in March, or get an MOT this year. I think I’ll soon fall behind with gas and electric bills. If the government switch to a voucher scheme for disability payments, I’ll probably starve!”

A quarter (25%) of people claiming Universal Credit and disability benefits have been unable to afford pain relief or other over the counter medication in the last three months. Four in ten (37%) participants were behind on bills, with 28% behind on gas or electricity in particular.

Just over half (52%) of people claiming Universal Credit were pessimistic about their own financial situation over the next year. Additionally, 58% said the UK government is doing badly at improving living standards for people in their situation.

Trussell is an anti-poverty charity and community of 1,400 food banks across the UK. Disabled people are overrepresented at food banks, as 75% of people referred to a food bank in the Trussell community said that they or a member of their household are disabled.

To fulfil its long-term ambitions, Trussell says the UK government must take serious action to reduce hunger and hardship by investing in social security. Focusing on short term cuts will just push more people deeper into poverty and to hunger and hardship, and this will harm us all.

Trussell has joined together with hundreds of communities, food banks and charities including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, in calling on the UK government to create an Essentials Guarantee in Universal Credit, which means the basic rate at least cover’s life’s essentials and that support can never be pulled below that level.

The majority of participants in the new survey agree, with 83% saying they would support an Essentials Guarantee.

Sumi Rabindrakumar, head of policy and research at Trussell, said: “Trussell’s heartbreaking new findings show that Universal Credit and disability benefits are failing to cover the cost of living, with 77% of people receiving them having gone without the essentials in the last six months.

“Not only that, but one in five people have had to use a food bank. This should not be the case in one of the richest countries in the world.

“We agree with the UK government that disability benefits urgently need reform. But balancing the books cannot come at the expense of people already having to survive on incredibly low incomes, and people with physical and mental ill health conditions.

“Our data shows that disabled people are far more likely to need support from a food bank, which likely reflects that life costs more for disabled people, with additional costs like therapies, treatments, specialist kit to help with day-to-day activities and paid care to think about on top of food, bills and toiletries.

“Welfare and disability benefit cuts risk pushing even more people to the doors of food banks. Many disabled people are terrified of the prospect of cuts to disability benefits, which are already not enough to live on.

“If the UK government is committed to its promise to end the need for emergency food, it must address underlying barriers to work and flaws in our social security system. It must also commit to creating an Essentials Guarantee which would ensure everyone can at the very least afford the essentials we all need, such as food, bills and toiletries- not whip away lifelines from people who need them most.”

Tesco customers in Edinburgh thanked for generous Winter Food Collection support as 1.9 million meals donated

Stores across the country have been overwhelmed by the generosity of customers who donated at the Tesco Winter Food Collection.

An incredible 1.9 million meals’ worth of long-life food items were donated at the collection between 25^th November and 30^th November in all the retailer’s large and Express stores.

In Edinburgh, the collection saw customers donate 24,451 meals to make a difference in their local community.

Every item donated provides much-needed support for charities FareShare and Trussell in the run up to Christmas.

Donations to Trussell help food banks to provide emergency food parcels to people who cannot afford the essentials, while donations to FareShare support thousands of frontline local charities in communities across the country.

This winter will see heightened levels of need for both charities’ services with the Christmas holidays being a particularly difficult time for families due to the increased costs that occur at this time of year. With this in mind, Tesco provided an extra £500,000 of funding to FareShare and Trussell to meet this acute need.

Tesco CEO Ken Murphy said: “I just want to say a huge thank you to every single person who donated items at this year’s Winter Food Collection. Their generosity is always so amazing and really helps to make a huge impact in communities across the UK supported by Trussell and FareShare.”

Throughout the year Tesco donates unsold food to FareShare as part of its Community Food Connection scheme. That means so far this year Tesco and its customers have given the equivalent of more than 39 million meals to both charities.

In addition to the donations of food, the pre-Christmas Winter Food Collection saw more than £340,000 donated to the charities by customers rounding up their bills at the till and donating through a link from Tesco’s online groceries website.

Kristopher Gibbon-Walsh, CEO at FareShare, said: “Every year, we are blown away by the generosity of Tesco customers at the Winter Food Collection, and this year is no exception.

“Thank you to every single person that volunteered in store, donated an item of food, topped up their shopping bill, or made a donation to FareShare. Your kind support will ensure we can continue getting food out into the community, bringing people together and strengthening communities this winter.”

Emma Revie, CEO of Trussell, said:“We are so grateful to Tesco for supporting food banks to get through this season by organising this year’s Winter Food Collection. Thank you to Tesco customers for coming out in support of your local food bank, to ensure they can continue helping everyone in your local community who is facing hunger and hardship this winter.

“Thanks to your efforts, we have collected 1.8 million meals to support people who need a food bank this winter. Thank you for your generosity – together we can end hunger for good.

“Food banks in the Trussell community are a last resort for people who’ve been left facing hunger and hardship. They’re a lifeline, offering a warm welcome and space to be heard. But with so many people unable to afford the essentials right now, food banks continue to provide exceptionally high levels of emergency food, with many telling us they are at breaking point.

“Just over 1.4 million emergency food parcels were provided across the UK by food banks in our community, between April and September this year.”

With both charities continuing to need support, Tesco shoppers can continue to donate food at permanent collection points at every Tesco store in the UK or make a donation after their online shop.

You can also donate at https://fareshare.donr.com/tesco until February 2025.

Cruden Group delivers 30 tonnes of vital food parcels over five years to support people at Christmas

For the fifth consecutive year, award-winning Scottish housebuilder Cruden has spread festive goodwill by partnering with Trussell, an anti-poverty charity that operates a community of over 1,400 food banks across the UK.

Since 2020, Cruden has made an incredible contribution of over £66,000 and approximately 30 tonnes of food supplies to food banks in the Trussell community, providing vital relief to families and individuals facing hunger and hardship across the UK. These collective efforts have fostered a profound sense of community and care across Scotland during the festive season.

This year, Cruden has continued its notable support by collecting an additional £9,000 in donations and over 6 tonnes of essential supplies, including non-perishable food, toiletries, and festive treats. These provisions were distributed to food banks across Scotland, to support people most in need during the cost-of-living crisis.

These achievements have been made possible through the dedication of Cruden staff, contractors, and partners, who united across six developments and the Central Belt of Scotland to contribute high-priority items identified by local food banks.

Colin Kennedy, Construction Director at Cruden, said: “We’re immensely proud of the impact we’ve made over the past five years in supporting Trussell.

“This year’s contributions are more critical than ever, and we’re deeply grateful to everyone who participated. Together, we’re making a real difference in the lives of families who need it most during the festive season.”

Sophie Carre, Head of Public Engagement at Trussell said: “Thank you to Cruden for supporting Trussell.

“Between March and September this year food banks in Trussell’s UK-wide community distributed more than more than 1.4m emergency food parcels to people facing hardship – this is an increase of 69% over the same period five years ago. More than 500,000 of these parcels were distributed for children.

“Food bank teams are working tirelessly to help people unable to afford the essentials and thanks to the generosity of supporters like Cruden, they can continue to provide vital emergency support in their communities, while we work together to end the need for food banks in the UK. Thank you.”