Plans to transform social care across Scotland will be progressed after the Scottish Parliament approved the Care Reform (Scotland) Bill.
Thousands of people with experience of accessing, delivering and receiving social care, social work and community health services have helped co-design the legislation, putting people at the heart of reform.
The Bill will bring forward a number of enhancements to social care that include:
enshrining Anne’s Law into legislation to uphold the rights of people living in adult care homes to see loved ones and identify an essential care supporter
strengthening support for unpaid carers by establishing a legal right to breaks, following the additional £13 million already allocated for up to 40,000 carers to take voluntary sector short breaks
empowering people to access information on their care and improving the flow of information across care settings
improving access to independent advocacy to guarantee people are heard and involved in decisions about their own care
creating a National Chief Social Work Adviser role to provide professional leadership and champion the sector, as part of plans for a new National Social Work Agency.
Alongside the Bill, an advisory board will be established to drive progress and scrutinise reform, replacing an interim board that met for the first time in May.
Social Care Minister Maree Todd said: “More than 200,000 people across Scotland access care each year.
“Anyone may need care during their lives, and that care should be high quality and delivered consistently across Scotland.
“That is why we have been so determined to bring forward much-needed reform, alongside the work we are already doing through the near £2.2 billion total investment in social care and integration in 2025-26.
“Reform is not easy to deliver and it is being made more challenging by recent UK Government changes to Employer National Insurance Contributions and changes to migration. These will undoubtedly impact on care delivery.
“However, we have remained steadfast in our commitment to deliver the sustainable change to social care that people urgently need.
“This is a significant step that will strengthen the rights of people living in care homes, support unpaid carers and social workers and improve experiences for the many people who access social care across Scotland.”
An essential care supporter is someone, for example close relatives or friends, who plays a vital role in providing their loved ones with regular care and support alongside staff. This includes companionship, personal support and advocacy.
HC-One Scotland’s Victoria Manor Care Home, in Leith’s Albert Street, is delighted to announce its ‘Good’ rating after a recent inspection from the Care Inspectorate (CI), Scotland’s independent regulator of social care.
This outstanding achievement underscores the home’s unwavering commitment to delivering compassionate, person-centred care to its residents. Following a comprehensive inspection, Victoria Manor received a ‘Good’ rating across all key areas, with exceptional scores of 5 (Very Good) in Leadership and Management, Staffing, and specific aspects of resident well-being and involvement.
The CI praised the home’s positive leadership from Home Manager Julie McNaughton and Deputy Manager Natasha Thomas, who have helped foster a supportive environment for both staff and residents. This has led to excellent care outcomes at the home which provides nursing and nursing dementia care services.
The report highlighted the team’s transparent complaint reviews, embedded skilled-level dementia training, and a holistic approach to end-of-life care, which families described as “very positive”. Inspectors commended the kind and dedicated staff, with comments reflecting their pride in working at Victoria Manor and their collaborative spirit, described by social workers as a “dream to work with”.
The home’s beautifully landscaped gardens, accessible facilities, and vibrant activity programmes were also recognised as key strengths to create a warm and engaging environment.
Julie McNaughton, HC-One Scotland’s Victoria Manor Home Manager, said: “We’reincredibly proud of this achievement, which reflects the hard work and passion of our team at Victoria Manor. I would like to thank the whole team for their commitment, and I want to congratulate them on a positive report.
“Our focus remains on creating a nurturing environment where every resident feels valued and supported. This rating is a testament to our mission.”
Natasha Thomas, HC-One Scotland’s Victoria Manor Deputy Manager, added: “We’re dedicated to achieving our aim of being the care provider of choice for those looking for the very best care.
“The culture is changing at Victoria Manor for the better as our colleagues feel valued and supported.”
New paper led by ENU’s Dr Adele Goman is the first randomised control trial of this kind
Hearing interventions such as hearing aids and regular audiology appointments have been linked to a reduction in the number of falls among older adults, according to a new paper led by Dr Adele Goman of Edinburgh Napier University’s School of Health & Social Care.
This research, published today in the Lancet Public Health journal, showed that participants with hearing loss who were randomly assigned best practice hearing care reported an average of 27% fewer falls over the course of three years compared to a control group.
Falls are a leading cause of injury for older people and have rising mortality rates, while hearing loss is highly prevalent among those aged 70 and above. However, existing evidence on the effect of hearing aids on falls is mixed, and limited by the methodology of previous studies.
Goman and her colleagues analysed data from the Aging and Cognitive Health Evaluation in Elders (ACHIEVE) study, a three-year, unmasked, randomised controlled trial of adults aged 70–84 years in the USA designed to study the effect of intervention on cognitive abilities and other health outcomes, such as falls.
The ACHIEVE study was funded by the National Institute on Aging, part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health. It was conducted by a consortium of eight universities in the United States and led by researchers at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
The 977 ACHIEVE study participants, all of whom had hearing loss, were randomly assigned to either receive a hearing intervention or to a health education control intervention. Those randomly assigned to the hearing intervention were offered regular one-to-one audiologist appointments, bilateral hearing aids, the option of additional hearing assistive devices, device use support and educational materials. The health education control intervention group received the same number of appointments with a health educator and more broad educational content on healthy aging.
For this paper, participants were asked to report the number of falls they had experienced over a period of three years. Data indicate that participants who received the hearing intervention reported an average of 27% fewer falls over the course of three years compared to a control group.
Dr Goman’s is the first known large-scale randomised control trial that has examined the effect of hearing intervention on falls.
The researchers believe the reduced number of falls among the hearing intervention group could be down to improved auditory input enhancing spatial awareness, or from having to devote less attention to processing auditory input allowing for more attention to be placed on maintaining postural control.
They are now working on a follow-up study with participants to examine the longer-term effects of hearing intervention on brain health, falls, and other health outcomes.
Dr Adele Goman said: “Hearing loss has previously been associated with a greater risk of falling among older adults, but few studies have directly investigated the connection.
“It is possible that the benefit of improved hearing may have enhanced the spatial environmental awareness of these participants, or that the lower demand on cognitive resources for hearing allowed them to focus more on their movement.
“As this is the first study of its kind, more research is needed to establish our conclusion that hearing intervention may reduce the overall average rate of falls. Our ongoing follow-up will also aim to tell us more about the effect over a longer period of time.
“We hope that these findings have the potential to inform researchers and health professionals, and address a leading cause of injury among older people.”
State of Caring in Scotland 2024: Health and social care support for unpaid carers
36% of unpaid carers reported their mental health as ‘bad or very bad’– a 29% increase in 12 months.
65% stated they need more support with their health and wellbeing.
56% often or always feel overwhelmed by their caring role.
59% said that support services were not there when they needed them.
80% have been unable to take a break because of a lack of support from social services.
There is a growing mental health crisis in Scotland’s unpaid carer population – this is the message from Carers Scotland in ‘State of Caring in Scotland 2024: Health and social care support for unpaid carers’.
This new research, based on a survey of over 1,700 unpaid carers in Scotland, saw a 29% increase in the last 12 months of the number of unpaid carers who reported their mental health as “bad or very bad” – 36% of respondents in 2024, compared to 28% in 2023.
This statistic was even more severe when a carer reported struggling financially, with 59% of carers who are struggling to make ends meet saying they had “bad or very bad” mental health. 28% of respondents also rated their physical health as “bad or very bad”, with this number rising to 49% among carers struggling to make ends meet.
80% of unpaid carers from the research stated that the main challenge they will face over the next year is the impact of caring on their physical and/or mental health.
These new findings show that unpaid carers are not receiving the support they need to maintain their health and wellbeing whilst managing their caring responsibilities. More support with health and wellbeing was the number one need cited by unpaid carers in the research, with long waiting times for appointments, inflexible GP appointment systems, and insufficient replacement care all highlighted as barriers to support.
Another challenge is the inability of many unpaid carers to take a physical and mental break from their caring role. Taking a break from caring is essential for carers to recharge, spend time with family and friends, and engage with their own hobbies and interests to improve their wellbeing. However, 63% of carers who stated in the research that they felt overwhelmed in their caring role said that this was due to them not having a break from caring.
Richard Meade from Carers Scotland said: “Unpaid carers in Scotland are in a mental and physical health crisis, which only threatens to get worse without immediate action.
“Unpaid carers continue to bear the weight of an overstretched health and social care system as they are increasingly expected to fill the growing gaps in service provision without increased support for themselves.
“Whilst the Scottish Government has focused on reducing NHS waiting lists, improving hospital discharge delays and access to essential health services there still remains an urgent need for investment in social care and support for unpaid carers.
“Unpaid carers provide the equivalent of £15.9bn in health and social care support and without them the system would collapse, yet they receive a fraction of the support they need.
“The stalled National Care Service provided hope for many unpaid carers that things could change. However, many feel their needs have been lost to a wider political debate and little has changed to improve their lives.
“The Scottish Government, the NHS, and local councils must act now to ensure that carers can access the support they need to continue to care without such devastating consequences to their physical and mental health.”
The monetary value of the contribution of unpaid carers in Scotland estimated at £15.9 billion(1) a year. Despite this, unpaid carers face deteriorating physical and mental health, loneliness and isolation, with too many driven to despair and unable to access to the supports they need to maintain a healthy life.
Carers Scotland has included a range of recommendations alongside this research for the Scottish Government, NHS Boards and Health and Social Care Partnerships to ensure all unpaid carers get the support they need to look after their health and wellbeing and receive the right help for caring.
Download and read the report in full at the link below:
Plans to transform the way social care is delivered are being progressed as part of the Scottish Government’s commitment to improve the experience of everyone who accesses social care, social work and community health services.
Ahead of Stage 2 proceedings of the National Care Service Bill later this month, a number of amendments have been lodged, all of which are subject to Parliament’s agreement.
As the National Care Service will now be established through both legislative and non-legislative means, with reform of social care at the centre it is proposed the Bill will be known as the “Care Reform (Scotland) Bill”.
If agreed by Parliament, as amended, the Bill will also bring forward significant reforms to social care, including:
Anne’s Law being enshrined into legislation to uphold the rights of people living in adult care homes to see loved ones and identify an essential care supporter
ensuring all those working in or supplying services to the health and social care sector follow the same information standards allowing easier communication
the creation of a National Chief Social Work Advisor post, in statute, to bring strategic leadership at a national level.
The Bill will also retain measures to establish a legal right to breaks for unpaid carers. Ahead of the legislation, the Scottish Government has identified an additional £5 million in the draft 2025-26 Budget to support 15,000 carers to take short breaks from their caring responsibilities.
Ministers announced in January that legislation to set up a new public body to oversee national improvements would no longer go ahead. However, work to establish a National Care Service Advisory Board is progressing and it is due to meet for the first time in March.
Social Care Minister Maree Todd said: ”Social care has the power to transform people lives, that is why it is so important that those accessing services receive the highest quality care, delivered consistently across Scotland.
“The amendments lodged in Parliament offer us the best opportunity to urgently get to work to reform the system and have a transformative impact on people’s lives.
“Positive progress is being made on establishing an advisory board that puts people with experience of the social care system at the heart of it, helping deliver the changes we all want to see.”
An essential care supporter is someone, for example close relatives or friends, who plays a vital role in providing their loved ones with regular care and support alongside staff. This includes companionship, personal support and advocacy.
As part of our ongoing work on the lives of people with learning disabilities, we continue to track the latest research, policy developments, and data shaping their experiences (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s DAVID JACK).
In previous round-ups, we’ve explored topics ranging from employment and social care to education and healthcare access. For this edition, we turn our attention to the rollout of annual health checks for people with learning disabilities in Scotland.
What are Annual Health Checks?
An Annual Health Check is a yearly check-up offered to individuals with learning disabilities to help identify and manage their health needs. It typically includes a review of medical history, physical health measurements (such as weight and blood pressure), checks on long-term conditions, discussions about mental health and lifestyle, assessment of healthcare access difficulties, medication reviews, and the development of a health action plan if required. The goal is to detect potential health issues early and support overall well-being.
Why Annual Health Checks Matter
Annual health checks are seen as a vital tool in addressing health inequalities. Many people with learning disabilities face challenges in communicating their symptoms, making proactive health assessments essential. Research consistently highlights the poorer health outcomes this group experiences, including higher rates of undiagnosed conditions, preventable illnesses, and premature mortality.
Just this week, researchers at the University of Glasgow released new findings revealing that young adults (aged 25-34) with learning disabilities are nine times more likely to die from treatable causes than their peers in the general population. The study, led by the Scottish Learning Disabilities Observatory, underlined the severe health inequalities faced by this group—particularly young women, who were found to be at disproportionately higher risk of premature death from treatable conditions.
Scotland’s Commitment and the Reality of Implementation
In May 2022, the Scottish Government pledged to offer annual health checks to all adults (aged 16+) with learning disabilities by 31st March 2023. To support this, NHS Boards were allocated £2 million annually. However, implementation struggles led to a revised deadline of 31st March 2024.
The first official data on Scotland’s progress has now been released by the Scottish Government. The 2023/24 figures reveal that despite identifying 23,758 eligible individuals, only 1,405 (6%) health checks were offered, with just 1,128 completed. This means fewer than 5% of eligible individuals have received a health check—highlighting that the rollout remains far from comprehensive. Notably, while 80% of those offered a check went on to complete it, the vast majority of eligible adults have yet to be given the opportunity.
The failure to fully implement the annual health check programme points to deeper systemic challenges within Scotland’s healthcare system. While the Scottish Government has made reassurances that health checks remain a priority, the delay of the Learning Disabilities, Autism, and Neurodivergence (LDAN) Bill has raised concerns about long-term commitment.
In a letter to the Health, Social Care, and Sport Committee, Minister Maree Todd reaffirmed the Scottish Government’s dedication to expanding health checks, including exploring new settings such as the State Hospital and prisons. However, these recent figures suggest that rather than expanding, the programme is struggling at a foundational level. The challenge appears not to be a lack of policy ambition but a failure in execution, which risks slowing or even obstructing progress in reducing health inequalities in Scotland.
A Troubling Lack of Progress
While 2024 marks the first year of formal reporting, and some allowances can be made for scaling-up challenges, the level of delivery remains lower than expected, particularly given the dedicated £2 million in annual funding. The current data does not include a breakdown of uptake by NHS Board—an important detail that should be incorporated into future reporting. The next set of figures, due in June 2025, will be key in providing greater transparency on regional disparities, and we also encourage the publication of more detailed demographic data when appropriate.
Back in November 2024, media reports stated that none of Scotland’s NHS Boards had fully met the target of offering health checks to all eligible individuals. In some areas, such as NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Shetland, there were indications that not a single eligible patient had received a health check. Greater clarity on this is needed through more detailed official statistical reporting to ensure timely, accurate and transparent data on progress.
Encouraging NHS Boards to report on how they are utilising the allocated £2 million per annum could provide valuable insights and help address delivery challenges. Additionally, assessing the effectiveness of public awareness campaigns would help identify what has worked well and what could be improved to ensure that people with learning disabilities and their families are fully informed about their right to an annual health check.
Varied Approaches
The Scottish Government provided directives outlining the framework for annual health checks, while allowing flexibility in local implementation. This flexibility has resulted in varied delivery models across NHS Boards, reflecting differences in workforce capacity, healthcare structures, and local resources. Some Boards will conduct checks primarily through GP practices, while others may incorporate community-based assessments, specialist learning disability health teams, or partnerships with third-sector organisations.
For example, NHS Lothian recommended a model where Community Learning Disability Nurses work closely with GP practices. Other Boards are integrating health checks into community services or collaborating with third-sector organisations to improve outreach. However, these varied approaches risk creating inconsistencies in data recording, as different systems are likely being used.
The Scottish Government has emphasised the need for standardised data collection across all Health Boards. A uniform approach is essential for assessing the effectiveness of health checks and ensuring equitable service delivery. The Annual Health Checks National Implementation Group aims to assist NHS Boards in aligning practices and reporting methods, with members expected to share real-time delivery data to collaboratively address challenges, overcome barriers, and provide peer support.
Beyond the Census: How Health Checks Could Bridge the Data Gap
If Scotland’s annual health checks for individuals with learning disabilities had been fully implemented as intended, they could have provided a valuable and reliable dataset on the number of people with learning disabilities in the country. Interestingly, the number of adults (23,758) identified through the Annual Health Check Survey Return to the Scottish Government already exceeds the number of adults reporting a learning disability in Scotland’s 2011 Census (21,115) by 12.5%.
This first set of published data for the Annual Health Check Survey states, “The method by which eligible people are identified varies by Health Board – the numbers identified only represent people with learning disabilities who are known to services.” Coupled with the fact that these checks are not yet being delivered at full capacity, this suggests that the true number of adults with learning disabilities in Scotland is likely to be higher than 23,758.
Scotland’s 2022 Census faced significant challenges in identifying the learning disability population. Instead of reporting learning disabilities separately, the published data currently combines them with learning difficulties and developmental disorder—a disappointing step backward compared to 2011.
The National Records of Scotland (NRS) identified learning disability as the primary category of concern, noting an “unrealistically large increase” in the number of people selecting this category compared to the previous census. As we previously explained, quality assurance efforts primarily relied on triangulating data with Scotland’s Pupil Census, which only captures those in school education and does not account for the broader adult population.
A fully functioning health check system could have served as an essential alternative data source, refining population estimates, improving census accuracy, and informing future data collection. Crucially, it could have also helped assess discrepancies in reported numbers—and given the challenges with learning disability recording in the 2022 Census, it still could—helping to clarify the scale of potential misrepresentation and ensuring that individuals with learning disabilities are properly represented in National Statistics and policy planning.
Policy Changes in England: A Warning for Scotland?
Recent developments in England signal changes to the NHS’s approach to annual health checks for individuals with learning disabilities. In an effort to prioritise reducing waiting times, Health Secretary Wes Streeting has announced a reduction in the number of NHS targets from 32 to 18.
This streamlining includes the removal of the specific target to provide annual health checks to 75% of people with learning disabilities across England. It is worth noting that unlike England’s previous approach, Scotland’s current policy is to offer a health check to all eligible individuals, without a set percentage target for delivery.
The Health Secretary’s recent decision has raised concerns that removing these targets could also lead to the loss of ring-fenced funding in England. Historically, funding has been directly tied to national targets to support their delivery, and without this financial safeguard, there is a risk that annual health checks could be deprioritised.
Mencap has warned that removing this target could have “deadly consequences,” as people with learning disabilities already face a life expectancy up to 23 years shorter than the general population.
While healthcare policy in Scotland is devolved, pressures on workforce capacity and financial resources remain significant challenges. If services continue to be overstretched, there is a risk that learning disability healthcare may receive less focus. This could make it more difficult to address health inequalities, potentially leaving those already at high risk of poor health outcomes further marginalised.
Conclusion: Turning Commitment into Action
The rollout of annual health checks for people with learning disabilities in Scotland remains a work in progress, with ongoing challenges still to be addressed. Despite the Scottish Government’s assurances that expanding access remains a priority, the reality is that progress has been slow, and only a small percentage of eligible individuals have received a health check so far.
Beyond improving individual health outcomes, a fully implemented programme could play a crucial role in shaping policy by providing more accurate data on Scotland’s learning disability population—particularly given the shortcomings of the 2022 Census.
As concerns over widening health inequalities grow and policy shifts in England raise further questions about long-term commitments, Scotland must ensure that these health checks move beyond ambition and become a fully embedded, effective service.
A Third Sector Response to the Draft EIJB Strategic Plan for 2025-28
In response to the EIJB consultation inviting people and organisations to have a say on the draft Strategic Plan for 2025 – 28, the Third Sector Reference Group is working on a contribution on behalf of our sector.
This is another in a series of actions in light of the future funding crisis third sector organisations are facing across the city.
Your input to this response is vital and we would ask any and all third sector groups and organisations to share your hopes, fears and priorities, by answering the 9 questions in this short survey.
You are also encouraged to submit a separate response individually, feeding back on the identified priorities, planned actions and measures of success.
You can find out more and submit a response to the consultation here.
Please be aware that the deadline for the consultation submission is extremely tight – Sunday 23rd Feb 2025.
This is strongly influencing the actions we are focusing on to deliver the best outcome for the sector.
The Reference Group has pulled together several resources that you might find useful:
Yesterday COSLA and the Scottish Government convened a roundtable discussion to consider immediate challenges facing the delivery of social care services:
COSLA Health and Social Care Spokesperson Councillor Paul Kelly, reflected on the meeting: “I was very grateful for the representation from across the care sector, including our partners in the third and independent sectors, involved in this critical discussion.
“We all have a shared responsibility to improve outcomes for people using health and social care services in Scotland, and I am acutely aware of how much more challenging this becomes when confronted with significant budget gaps for Local Government and Integrated Joint Boards.
“Of course, I know that it’s a similarly challenging financial context for our partner providers who deliver vital care and support for people.
“The reality is that the current financial challenges will have a very real impact on services and it’s for this reason I thought it was crucial to bring together key partners to highlight the impact this has been having – and will continue to have – on the system.
“The changes to employer National Insurance contributions, coupled with continued financial constraints and uncertainties, are a significant risk felt by Local Government which will impact upon the delivery, commissioning and procurement of services.
“There are no easy solutions to the challenges that were aired but I was encouraged by the frank and open contributions from attendees, and the consensus that it’s more important than ever that we work collaboratively to ensure continued delivery of social care for all those who need it.
“As COSLA’s Health and Social Care Spokesperson, I want to reiterate that we are doing everything we can to address the challenges the sector collectively faces, and that COSLA remains absolutely committed to engaging with the Scottish and UK Governments on these matters.”
People across Scotland will have better access to NHS treatment through increased capacity, expanded primary care services, enhanced use of digital innovations and a range of other measures, First Minister John Swinney announced yesterday.
Speaking to representatives from across the health and social care sector, the First Minister set out action to drive down waiting times and reduce pressure on frontline services.
The First Minister was joined by Health Secretary Neil Gray and announced a range of actions including:
A substantial increase in capacity, with 150,000 additional appointments and procedures per year
Increased investment in primary care, making it easier for people to get appointments with their GP
Improved use of data and new digital innovations including the roll-out of a Scottish health and social care app – a ‘Digital Front Door’ to the NHS for patients
The First Minister said: “Protecting, strengthening, renewing our National Health Service – that is a goal I think we can all get behind. A real focus of common purpose.
“That requires action from me, as First Minister, from my Health Secretary Neil Gray, and from my Government. We can offer the leadership and direction – as the measures outlined today seek to do.
“So, today, we commit to a substantial increase in capacity in order to significantly reduce people’s waits.
“Our plan will ensure that a greater proportion of new NHS funding goes to primary and community care. GPs and services in the community will have the resources they need to play a greater role in our health system.
“This increased investment will result in GP services that are easier for people to access. That is important in terms of people’s confidence in the health service – but equally, it will make it more likely that health issues are picked up quickly and dealt with earlier.
“Our National Health Service is there when we need it. No other public institution supports us with so much care through life’s biggest moments. We must support it in return.
“The approach I set out today charts our course to do that. It addresses both the challenges and the opportunities. It sets the NHS on a path of modernisation and renewal.”
LAST WEEK the Scottish government confirmed that plans for a National Care Service (NCS) in Scotland have been scrapped in favour of an advisory board and smaller, more targeted reforms (write FRASER of ALLANDER INSTITUTE’s MAIRI SPOWAGE and EMMA CONGREVE).
The decision came after months of declining support from key organizations and stakeholders including COSLA, key trade unions and representative bodies for social care providers in Scotland.
Beyond the wavering support for the NCS plans, there is clear support for social care reform, particularly in enhancing access to and the quality of services.
Our interest in the National Care Service, and wider social care reform stems back to 2022, in which we conducted analysis of the NCS bill published in June of that year. Following this work, published in August 2022, we engaged with a number of stakeholders across the private, public and third sector.
Among concerns around governance and funding of the NCS, one of the key concerns from stakeholders we engaged with was the lack of good quality and timely data that is crucial to ensuring that any reforms to social care are well informed. In particular, the need to better understand what future levels of social care demand might be, the workforce requirements to accommodate this, and the associated expenditure on social care.
Our concerns about the lack of investment in social care research were highlighted in our response to the Wave 2 consultation. The Scottish Government has not commissioned any work in this area, and we have not been able to find independent funders willing to fund work of this nature in Scotland.
It is our view that projections of demand and cost of the current service, and any future reforms, is urgently required.
New labour market data published
The latest data on the labour market in the UK was published last week. There are many documented issues with the data at the moment due to the challenges faced by the Labour Force Survey, which means the headline figure are no longer considered accredited Official Statistics.
If you can set that aside for a moment, the headline results show on the surface a strong Labour market in Scotland, with high employment (74.1%) and low unemployment (3.8%). Inactivity rates remain slightly higher than the UK at 22.9%.
There are a number of other data sources published alongside the LFS data which is used to supplement our understanding of what is going on in the Scottish economy. One of these is the payrolled employment data, known as the PAYE Real-Term Information, which is published every month by the ONS. This draws on administrative records, and so is likely to be more reliable in terms of employment (although, of course, tells us nothing about unemployment or inactivity).
This data shows that payrolled employment is almost 3% higher in Scotland than pre-pandemic levels. However, we had a look at replicating the sectoral breakdowns in this interesting piece by think.ing, which looks at government-dominated sectors vs the rest.
Chart:Payrolled employment in all sectors, government dominated sectors (public administration, health and education, and total excluding government, Scotland, January 2020=100
Source: ONS
This shows that once the government dominated sectors are excluded, payroll employment has been falling since March 2024, and is now almost back at the levels seen in January 2020. In contrast, government dominated sectors are 8% about pre-COVID levels.
Given some of the challenges facing the private sector in the first half of 2025, including large increases in employer National insurance contributions which will come in in April, the trend in private sector employment is concerning, and points to a weakness masked if we just look at employment in total.
However, it is worth emphasising again that this is just payrolled employment, and does not cover self-employment.
