Tag: Economy

Scottish Business confidence soars to highest levels in UK

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for June 2021 shows:

  • Scottish business confidence leaps 27 points to 42% – the highest in the UK
  • Net balance of 18% of businesses in the country expect to increase staff levels over the next 12 months
  • UK business confidence remains steady at 33% with all regions and nations reporting a net positive reading for the third consecutive month

Business confidence in Scotland rose 27 points during June to 42%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking. This is the sharpest rise in overall confidence this year and means Scotland has the highest levels of optimism anywhere in the UK.

Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up 32 points at 42%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up 24 points to 43%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 42%.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

When it comes to jobs, a net balance of 18% of Scottish businesses expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up ten points on last month and the third consecutive month the reading has increased.

Overall UK business confidence remained steady month-on-month at 33%. Firms reported a small increase in their business prospects, up two points to 30%, the highest reading since September 2020. Confidence in the economy dipped marginally by two points to 36%.

Across the UK all regions and nations reported positive confidence readings for the third consecutive month. Businesses in Scotland, London (up 17 points to 41%) and the East of England (up ten points to 36%) reported the highest increases in confidence.

While confidence remained positive, firms in eight regions reported a month-on-month drop. The biggest decreases were in Yorkshire and Humber (down 14 points to 30%), the West Midlands (down 12 points to 29%), the North West (down nine points to 29%) and East Midlands (down nine points to 31%).

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence in Scotland rose again in June as firms across the country slowly but surely returned to normal trading. It also positive to see that more firms are now planning to hire new staff this year – another clear indicator that the country is on the path to recovery.

“Despite this, the well-trailed postponement to the easing of lockdown restrictions will have dampened spirits, especially for those in the country’s tourism and hospitality sector and is another sign that we are not out of the woods yet.

“We’ll continue to stand by Scottish business and support firms through the coming months as we look to build back better.”

Differences in confidence between the UK’s regions and nations narrowed this month (chart 5). There were sizeable increases in Scotland (up 27 points to 42%), London (up 17 points to 41%) and the East of England (up 10 points to 36%).

Along with the South West (36%), these were the most confident parts of the country. The largest falls, albeit from previously elevated levels, happened in Yorkshire and the Humber (down 14 points to 30%) and the East Midlands (down 9 points to 31%). There were smaller declines in the South East (down 6 points to 31%), Wales (down 6 points to 31%) and Northern Ireland (down 6 points to 11%).

The majority of responses were given before the various UK governments formally announced the delay to the removal of all limits on social contact, which was originally expected to happen on 21st June in England and close to that date in other parts of the UK.

However, it is likely that anticipation of the delay may have had a small negative impact in confidence particularly in the retail sector (down eight points to 36%) while manufacturing also fell (down 18 points to 35%).

Despite this, confidence remains at historically high levels across the broad industry sectors – in part due to services increasing by five points (31%) to its highest level in more than three years and construction remaining steady at 35%.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Despite a fall in business confidence in eight of the UK’s nations and regions from the highs of last month, the differences are narrowing.

“It’s pleasing to see such significant improvements in a number of regions, in particular Scotland and London, with both reporting strong increases in confidence. We can be optimistic that the increase in confidence in the services sector, as well as the overall historically high levels across the broad industry sectors, bodes well for businesses as we remain by their side on their road to recovery.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “A fifth consecutive monthly increase in trading prospects and employment expectations highlights the resilience of UK businesses as they continue to recover from the challenges presented by the pandemic.

“Although we must now wait slightly longer for the last remaining COVID-19 restrictions to ease, it’s an encouraging sign that firms continue to have strong overall confidence in the outlook for the UK economy, as well as their expectations for their own growth prospects.”

Extra £14.5 billion for Scotland since start of Covid-19 pandemic

Scotland has benefitted from £14.5 billion of UK government funding to the devolved administrations, figures released today by the Treasury show.

The annual publication of the Block Grant Transparency shows that since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic the Scottish Government has received an additional £14.5 billion, the Welsh Government an additional £8.6 billion and the Northern Ireland Executive an additional £5.0 billion.

This funding has enabled the Scottish Government to provide support to individuals, businesses and public services across Scotland in response to Covid-19 and will continue to support the recovery through 2021-22.

This comes as part of the unprecedented package of support for the whole of the UK throughout the pandemic, with £352 billion spent right across the UK on Covid-19 measures.

In Scotland this included protecting more than 900,000 jobs through the furlough scheme, £294 million in self-employment support, help for businesses and the procurement of vaccines.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Steve Barclay said: “The UK government is fully committed to strengthening the Union and making sure Scotland has the funding needed to get through this pandemic, with £14.5 billion of additional spending over the last year.

“We’ve protected more than a million Scottish jobs and businesses with furlough and support schemes, our vaccine rollout is unlocking the economy, and our Plan for Jobs is levelling up opportunity and helping us build back better across the UK.”

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “From the very start of the pandemic, the UK Government has taken unprecedented action to help people and businesses right across the country.

“That includes our furlough scheme, support for self-employed people, help for businesses, and the hugely successful UK-wide vaccine programmes.

“On top of this direct support, the UK Government has provided an additional £14.5 billion of funding for the Scottish Government. 

“This extensive support, which now enables us to look towards recovery, shows how Scotland benefits from being part of a strong United Kingdom. Never has the value of the Union been more important or more apparent.”

The UK government’s Plan for Jobs is helping to support, create and protect jobs across the UK.

The Kickstart scheme is already helping thousands of 16-24 year-olds into work, JETS Scotland is providing up to six months of targeted support and 13,500 new Work Coaches have been recruited to give tailored support to people out of work.

City Centre at heart of heart of capital recovery plans

Muirhouse Community Hub and Granton gasholder put forward for Levelling Up funding

As Edinburgh’s economy faces the biggest challenge for more than a generation, the City of Edinburgh Council looks to forge a strong and sustainable recovery for Scotland’s Capital.

The Council has brought together key partners, stakeholders and business leaders to review the Edinburgh Economic Strategy to develop a refreshed approach that focuses on the city’s strengths, continued investment and collaboration, while responding to new pressures arising from both the pandemic and Brexit, and the long-term challenges identified in the 2018 Edinburgh Economy Strategy.

Agreed at yesterday’s Policy & Sustainability committee the report outlines key priorities, while also highlighting the importance of the city centre to Edinburgh’s long-term economic success – as a magnet for visitors, cultural activity, investment and innovation.

As part of the initial work that’s been done so far with key partners a series of actions have been proposed that the Council and other city stakeholder need to undertake to support the delivery of a strong economic recovery for Edinburgh.

These actions fall under five priorities which are:

  1. helping businesses to manage, adapt and innovate
  2. promote access to fair work and opportunities for progression
  3. lead a just transition to a net carbon zero economy
  4. create vibrant places for businesses and people; and
  5. maintain Edinburgh’s place as a global economy.

Focusing on specific actions needed to revive the economy of the city’s historic centre, The City Centre Recovery Plan has been developed as an accompaniment to the refresh of the city-wide Edinburgh Economy Strategy.

This plan proposes two core priorities for the Council and its partners over the next few years:

  • ‘support the city centre to adapt and thrive’ by taking action to provide high impact support to businesses of all sectors, as well as tailored, targeted support to businesses in areas or in sectors under specific pressure.
  • ‘build momentum for long term recovery’ by delivering strong programmes of promotion and marketing the city centre, as well as taking the steps needed to help people safely return to work in the area. Meanwhile look to enhance and repurpose the city centre to make sure it meets the post-pandemic needs of residents, businesses and visitors.

This will be underpinned by some of the largest and most significant retail, commercial, and tourism developments seen in any UK city centre.

It is hoped that these major investments will provide a catalyst for recovery of Edinburgh’s city centre, creating new job opportunities and building momentum needed to drive up footfall and turnover to the benefit of all businesses in the area.

These include:

  • the £1billion St James Quarter development opening this month;
  • Diageo’s investment in whisky tourism culminating in Johnnie Walker Princes Street opening later this summer;
  • a £40 million repair of North Bridge;
  •  the National Galleries of Scotland £22 million refurbishment project;
  • new uses on the way for key buildings such as the former BHS, Debenham’s shops, and the iconic Jenner’s department store
  • and in the west end of the city, the Edinburgh’s Haymarket project delivering a £350m development transforming the long-neglected brownfield site.

The new frameworks proposed for both the Economic Strategy and the City Centre Recovery Plan will now go through a consultation period with our citizen’s and partners from this month. Following this the final documents will be published in November this year.

Both reports will also look to deliver on the Council’s broader approach to recovery from the pandemic and meet its core priorities to end poverty, become a net zero city, and ensure wellbeing and equalities are enhanced for all.

Welcoming the update on the new frameworks, Council Leader, Adam McVey, said: “Recent indicators like city centre footfall and investments bringing opportunities for people in the Capital show Edinburgh in a strong position for a successful recovery.

“Oxford Economics suggested that Edinburgh is the most resilient economy in Scotland, driven by our digital connectivity and the diversity of our economy. But the challenges for businesses of Covid-19 and Brexit can’t be underestimated.

“By channelling our strengths, we can overcome the challenges and continue to make our City a greener and fairer place to live, work and do business.  Key growth sectors like data-driven innovation and strong sectors like technology, finance and business tourism are all collectively working together as a city to build a bright future for Edinburgh with opportunities for all our residents.

“I’d like to thank our partners and stakeholders for their support and insights in getting our next Economic Strategy to this stage. Through this next phase of wider engagement with the City we will have a robust plan of actions to support businesses, protect and create jobs and continue to make progress.

Depute Leader, Cammy Day, said: “A strong recovery for Edinburgh’s economy as a whole requires a strong and vibrant city centre and by developing The City Centre Recovery Plan, in tandem with the refreshed Economic Strategy, we’re making sure that this vital area of our city continues to thrive.

“In parallel with the development of the priorities we’ve set out, we have also committed to delivering many innovative and regenerative schemes across the city that are at the heart of our communities.

“We agreed on six key projects to be put forward for UK Government Levelling Up Funding including the Granton Waterfront, the North Edinburgh Art’s MacMillan Hub in Pennywell, Wester Hailes and other key priority programme for the city. I’m hopeful that we’ll be successful in our bids for this funding and look forward to seeing these projects benefiting our citizens in future years.”

Funding regeneration

Alongside this, as part of the city’s wider ambitions for the economy, the need to help fund and deliver key regeneration and infrastructure projects was also on the agenda at Thursday’s Policy & Sustainability Committee. 

Six projects were agreed and will now be put forward for the 2021/22 funding round of the new UK Levelling Up Fund.

The Levelling Up Fund was announced by UK Government at the 2020 Spending Review as a £4.8bn package of funding to provide capital investment in local infrastructure projects over four years, from 2021-22 to 2024-25.

All Scottish Local Authorities will receive a flat amount of £125,000 in capacity funding to support bid development. This funding is expected to be made available in late June 2021.

The six projects are:

  • North Edinburgh Arts – a proposed new creative and community hub at MacMillan Square in Pennywell;
  • Granton Gas Holder – restoring the gas holder structure and remediating the wider site, forming a key catalyst to delivering phase one of the wider waterfront regeneration programme;
  • Wester Hailes Regeneration – a comprehensive, phased regeneration plan for the next 10 to 15 years and will incorporate the aspirations as set out by the community in the Local Place Plan;
  • Inch Park Regeneration – a proposed project for the development of a sports and community hub in Inch Park;
  • Craigmillar Town Centre Regenerations – a regeneration plan for the area to complete years of housing led investment to deliver wide ranging community led improvements;
  • City-wide active travel – building on the vision and objectives set out in the City Mobility Plan, the active travel investment programme will deliver on of the UK’s most ambitious safe, attractive and coherent walking, cycling and wheeling networks.

Building international partnerships

Taking an international perspective and continuing to build relationships across the globe to attract investment and strategic links will be an important part in growing Edinburgh’s economy.

How Edinburgh maximises its global connections and partnerships was set out in an updated Edinburgh International Framework, developed in collaboration with members of the Edinburgh International Group.

Refreshed in response to changing context and challenges arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, as well as new developments in city wide priorities, the approach ensures international activity promotes the Capital’s equality and diversity objectives.

As part of the new framework, Councillors also agreed that the Council will support the University of Edinburgh in joining the World Innovative Cities Co-operation Organisation to develop civic links and support innovative collaborations with partner cities.

Cole-Hamilton Seeks Walk-In Vaccine Centres for Constituency Hot Spots

Edinburgh Western MSP Alex Cole-Hamilton is seeking walk in coronavirus vaccination centres in the Lothians today, after an outbreak in his constituency which forced the temporary closure of a local primary school.

Last week, Mr Cole- Hamilton, raised concerns over the temporary closure of Davidsons Main Primary School within his constituency, after 12 out of the 19 classes were required to self-isolate. Health Secretary Humza Yousaf responded to Mr Cole-Hamilton with the assurance that an extra effort would be made to ensure appropriate testing measures would be in place to keep the virus under control.

Mr Cole-Hamilton believes that more immediate action must be taken, using an opportunity in the Holyrood chamber to ask if the Health Secretary would make drop-in vaccination clinics available for constituents over the age of 18 who have yet to have their first jag or face a long wait for their second in local hotspot areas across Edinburgh, as he had done in Glasgow over the weekend.

Unable to give a definitive answer, Mr Yousaf did promise to raise the merits of walk in centres during a meeting with NHS Lothian that will take place tomorrow.

Mr Cole-Hamilton said: “I am pleased that the Cabinet Secretary understands the value of walk in vaccination centres, and there are many examples of the appetite for them across the United Kingdom.

“If we have learned anything from this pandemic it is the tragedy of being slow to take action. If the city of Edinburgh is to avoid a situation like the one Glasgow has been facing for the last eight months, then walk in vaccination clinics must be set up as soon as possible.

“It is of the utmost importance that local outbreaks, just like the ones in Davidsons Mains and Silverknowes, are dealt with swiftly, to avoid further harm to our to both our health and economy.”

15% of owner-managed businesses are still in survival mode

“11% reported that it is likely they will have to make redundancies in the next 3-6 months putting a potential 1.85 million jobs at risk across the UK”

Owner managed businesses coming out of the third lockdown are still struggling with the impact of Covid-19 and an uncertain economic outlook, according to the Association of Practising Accountants (APA):

  • 11% reported that it is likely they will have to make redundancies in the next 3-6 months putting a potential 1.85 million jobs at risk across the UK
  • 24% reported a negative or very negative impact on their business since the UK left the EU
  • 53% of respondents identified uncertain trading conditions as their biggest single challenge
  • 15% cited Brexit supply chain issues as their single biggest challenge

Nonetheless:

  • 84% of respondents reported that they were either confident or somewhat confident that they would be able to access the finance that they needed over the next 6 months with anecdotal evidence suggesting that the major banks were continuing to lend
  • Longer term 54% were more positive about their economic prospects outside the EU while 46% were less positive

The research among 435 owner managed businesses across the UK was carried out between April and May by the APA, a network of 17 leading business advisory firms who represent over 14,000 of these businesses.

Commenting on the findings APA Chairman Martin Muirhead said: “What is clear from our research is that a significant minority of owner managed businesses who have managed to pull through the last 12 months are still in survival mode with uncertain trading conditions being the biggest concern to a majority.

“Nonetheless there is also evidence to suggest that those businesses that have managed to weather the impact of Covid-19 are now more resilient and that existing and proposed Government support measures have generally been well received.

“Over the coming months it is vital that Government maintains a flexible and targeted approach to business support focusing resource on those sectors where there is the greatest need. Owner managed businesses form the backbone of the UK economy and need continued, targeted support as we emerge from this third lockdown.”

One in Six: Working family poverty hits record high

  • Billions spent on state support enrich private landlords, while one in six working households face poverty 
  • Action needed to bring down housing and childcare costs, and make work pay, to prevent further increases in poverty  
  • Stark new figures show the need to rethink economy and end constant house price spiral, report says 

The UK’s relative poverty rate among working households has hit a record high this century of 17.4 per cent, according to the first comprehensive analysis of official data released last month. 

Working poverty rates among families with three or more children have reached 42 per cent, up more than two thirds over the past decade. 

The figures, reflecting the position just before the pandemic struck, show that working poverty rates have risen across the entire country but are highest in London, Wales and the north of England. Families of all sizes have been affected, with single parents, couples with a single earner and large families affected worst. 

The sharp rise in working poverty (poverty faced by anyone living in a household where someone is in work) is revealed in a newreport by the IPPR think tank.

The report, No Longer Managing, lists four factors behind the growth in poverty: spiralling housing costs among low-income households; low wages; a social security system that has failed to keep up with rental costs; and a lack of flexible and affordable childcare.  

It identifies the economy’s over-dependance on house price growth as a key factor in driving poverty higher, as more families have to rely on renting privately and housing costs for private tenants have risen by almost half (48 per cent) in real terms over 25 years. One in four households is projected to be renting from private landlords by 2025. 

As a result, it says, much of the multi-billion pound benefits bill supports housing costs in the private sector, with any increase effectively channelled into the pockets of private landlords. IPPR estimates that £11.1 billion of housing support spending went to private landlords last year. 

Detailed IPPR analysis of DWP survey data also found that: 

  • Two-earner families where one partner works full-time and one works part-time are increasingly being pulled into poverty, a significant shift. For people in this group, the chances of being pulled into poverty have doubled over the past two decades, from one in 20 to one in 10.
  • Even for households with two people in full-time work, the chances of being pulled into poverty have more than doubled over the same period, rising from 1.4 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
  • Couple households with one full-time earner now have a poverty rate of 31 per cent, almost as high as working households where nobody works full time.
  • London has the highest rate of in-work poverty – 22 per cent – with Wales, the Midlands and the north of England next highest on 18 per cent. The rate is lowest in Northern Ireland (13 per cent). 

The IPPR report argues for new and different long-term targets for welfare, economic and housing policy, which reflect housing, childcare and travel-to-work costs as a percentage of families’ income. 

It says that the government’s current ‘levelling-up’ agenda is “unlikely to benefit working families if it remains largely focused on physical infrastructure” and fails to address growing inequalities. These include rapidly rising house prices and the growing gulf between property owners and renters – often in the most affluent parts of the country. 

Instead it urges developing wider objectives to bear down on some of the highest costs faced by working families – housing and childcare – and to ‘make work pay’. 

The report calls for long-term reforms to: 

  • Contain housing costs as a share of household income. This could include setting a house price inflation target as part of the Bank of England’s remit; greater taxation of property wealth; and investing at least £15 billion in capital grants to help vastly increase the rate of new housebuilding. 
  • Contain childcare costs as a proportion of household income, and make it more flexible. Measures to achieve this would include higher state subsidies for children under five and wraparound care for school-age children, with funding going directly to childcare providers.
  • Make work pay, through labour market reforms, skills policy and higher income support. Greater collective bargaining and unionisation, bearing down on insecure work and increased access to training and skills would all help to raise incomes; but greater support through the social security system, eroded during the transition to universal credit, is also needed so that people are better off in work. 

It also proposes measures to alleviate the problem in the short term, ranging from increases in local housing allowance to changes in childcare payments made through Universal Credit, and a 20 per cent higher minimum wage for zero hours contracts. 

But it warns that without underlying long-term reforms, government will face a perpetual choice between paying constantly rising social security bills to offset growing in-work poverty – or allowing the number of working families in poverty to increase unchecked, as is currently the case. 

Clare McNeil, IPPR associate director and head of its Future Welfare State programme, said: “These shocking new figures should be a wake-up call for everyone concerned about our future.

“The UK economy’s dependence on ever-rising house prices, and the lack of affordable housing, have trapped us in a vicious circle which, unless broken, will condemn us either to a constantly rising social security bill, or to ever-increasing poverty among working households. 

“A growing private rented sector coupled with high rents enriches property owners at the expense of renters, and represents a transfer of wealth away from people who already have very little, into the hands of others who are steadily accumulating more.  

“We need an alternative to what the government calls ‘levelling up’. That should look beyond headline incomes to the true costs and obstacles people face when struggling to make work pay. Otherwise more and more families who were once ‘just about managing’ will join the growing number who are ‘no longer managing’. 

“Short-term fixes are needed to alleviate the immediate crisis, but to solve the underlying problem we need a far deeper rethink of housing, childcare, social security and work.” 

The Bishop of Dover, the Rt Revd Rose Hudson-Wilkin, who is a member of IPPR’s welfare state advisory panel, said: “The system is broken and it is our responsibility to see that it is changed. 

“Providing a home and building a future for your family is something we all strive for and this report shows that one in six households are trying as hard as they can but still finding it impossible to feed their families and provide a safe roof over their heads. 

“The gulf between the rich and the poor is growing, as the pandemic showed us all too clearly. We must do more as a country to ensure that the resources we have been blessed with are shared more equally – now, and in the future.”

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Scottish business confidence enters positive territory for first time since the pandemic began

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for April 2021 shows:

  • Scottish business confidence rose 11 points to 9% in April, the first net-positive reading since February 2020
  • But firms are still expecting to reduce staffing levels over the coming months
  • Overall UK business confidence at highest level since September 2018 as lockdown restrictions lift in England and firms in Scotland and Wales begin to reopen

Business confidence in Scotland rose 11 points during April to 9%, the first positive reading since February 2020, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up 10 points at 5%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up 11 points to 13%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 9%.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

When it comes to jobs, a net balance of 9% of firms expect to reduce staff levels in the next year, down from 20% last month.

Overall UK business confidence surged 14 points in April to 29%, the highest reading since September 2018. The result follows the reopening of outdoor hospitality venues and non-essential retail and personal services providers in England and comes ahead of further restrictions easing in Wales and Scotland. Firms’ confidence in their own business prospects rose by 14 points to 26% and their optimism in the economy increased by 15 points to 32%.

Most UK regions and nations reported a month-on-month increase in confidence during April, with firms in the South West (up 22 points to 30%), London (up 20 points to 32%), the East Midlands (up 20 points to 40%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (up 20 points to 32%) reporting the largest surges.

No nation or region reported a fall in confidence, and nowhere had a net-negative confidence reading for the first time since July 2019.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “With hospitality and retail reopening this month, firms are feeling more optimistic as they begin to welcome people back to shop, eat and enjoy what Scotland has to offer.

“While some businesses are still planning to reduce staffing levels this year, it’s encouraging to see the number of companies planning job cuts has decreased month-on-month, a trend we hope to see continue. As lockdown restrictions ease over the coming weeks, we will continue to stand by Scottish businesses as they look to their recovery.”

Confidence increased in all sectors, with manufacturing and retail confidence levels at three-year highs. Manufacturing stood out as the most positive sector (40%), likely reflecting strong global demand and notwithstanding ongoing supply chain issues. Retail confidence jumped to 39%, while construction confidence also increased to 28%. Services confidence rose to 25%, which was also the highest it has been since 2018.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It’s very encouraging to report a continued improvement in sentiment for the UK’s regions and nations, particularly the Northern English regions that are leading the upward trend.

“In the sectors, the story is broadly positive – especially manufacturing and retail, which stood out and reported confidence levels at three-year highs. The retail sector, specifically, experienced some much-needed relief this month with the easing of lockdown restrictions.

“We hope that pent-up consumer demand will drive growth as the economy reopens further.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “A third consecutive monthly rise in business confidence alongside the highest level of confidence for two-and-a-half years tells us a positive story about the UK’s continued economic recovery and leaves us optimistic about the road ahead.

“While uncertainties remain regarding the evolution of the pandemic, this month’s improvement in sentiment reflects a further easing of COVID-19 restrictions, while progress in vaccine deployment is raising hopes that the negative impact of the health crisis will continue to fall in the months ahead as the economy reopens.”

Scotland’s night time economy ‘on brink of collapse’

The Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) is warning of an impending unemployment tsunami, with up to 24,000 jobs thought to be at risk within weeks, as a majority of struggling night-time economy businesses have now run out of cash to pay furlough contributions and fixed costs. 

The Scottish Government released the latest Strategic Framework update on Friday, which confirmed businesses will be subject to the commercially unviable levels system of restrictions for many months longer despite all financial support being withdrawn by the end of April.

Worse still, there is no commitment or target date for the return to commercially viable trading for businesses in the sector, which is only possible when social distancing and all other legal restrictions end.

A survey this month of NTIA members confirmed the perilous state the sector is now in, with average Covid related debt reaching a wholly unsustainable £150,000 or more per premises, and businesses facing an imminent cash flow crunch.

The survey also confirmed that less than a quarter of premises have licensed outdoor areas, the vast majority are many months behind on rent or mortgage payments, fewer than a third have been able to trade viably at any point in the last year, and almost all cannot reopen or trade viably while social distancing remains.

These businesses have now exhausted financial resources. Cash reserves have been depleted, more borrowing is now impossible with no guaranteed opening dates and businesses are rapidly running out of cash to pay their fixed costs and furlough contributions.

Business insolvencies and mass job losses are now inevitable within weeks unless the Scottish Government acts urgently. The NTIA wrote to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon earlier this month highlighting the issues and requesting immediate crisis talks.

It is beyond disappointing that as yet we have had no response whatsoever.

NTIA Spokesman Gavin Stevenson said: “Our members have done the right thing, closed their previously successful businesses for the sake of public health, and gone deep into debt paying the enormous fixed costs and furlough contributions to keep staff employed for over a year now.  

“We were the first to close and will be last to open.  No sector has suffered more.  But Government have consistently taken our sector for granted and refused to engage meaningfully with our representatives.

“Many of our members have been closed for over a year now, and virtually all have suffered crippling financial losses.  In short, the money going out every month has been far greater than the money coming in, and government support has typically covered less than a quarter of this deficit.

“To add insult to injury government support has now ended while there is no end date to forced closure and other restrictions.  Scottish Government now only has two options, provide substantial and immediate additional support for as long as it is mandated that our businesses stay closed and/or operate under the restrictions that make them unviable, or provide a clear route map with target dates for the end of all legal restrictions on capacity, activity, and opening hours.  

“If neither of those options are forthcoming then our First Minister is, in effect, asking thousands of small Scottish business owners to bankrupt themselves.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will make a statement this afternoon. She is expected to confirm the latest easing of restrictions will take place next Monday (26 April) and will include the reopening of hospitality, gyms and non-essential shops.

Business calls for inclusive debate on economic strategy

ISSUED ON BEHALF OF CONCERNED BUSINESS LEADERS

We believe the Oxford Economics report, ‘Raising Scotland’s Economic Growth Rate’ underscores the need for inclusive debate across political parties, Government, trade unions, business, the third sector and the media, indeed all concerned parties, to determine a new economic strategy for Scotland.

Radical and ambitious policy changes are required if Scotland’s economic performance is to be transformed and significantly boosted within the next 15 years and there must be no sacred cows as we determine those changes.

We must, as a necessity not a choice, address Scotland’s low productivity, poor business birth rate and lack of success with scale-ups that mean Scotland’s GDP per head is a mere 44% of Singapore’s level, 48% of Ireland’s, 68% of Norway’s and 75% of Denmark’s.

As the report states “it is not realistic to think that the current economic policies of either the UK or Scottish governments will produce a transformation of Scotland’s economic performance”.

Hence we must act now, in collaboration not conflict, to support and deliver a strategy that takes us up the ladder of GDP and drives innovation and scaling not just within business but across the whole of the public sector.

Achieving significant growth in our GDP is not just in every single persons’ interest, it’s an imperative if we are to maintain and indeed enhance our public services and drive the jobs that are so desperately needed post-pandemic.

We owe it to our young people that we create a vibrant economy for them to inherit and we need to be exceptional custodians of Scotland’s future for their sakes. To do so we cannot simply do what we have always done, tinkering on the edges, Scotland needs to think big and it needs to think fast.

Our opportunity is our size, we are a speed boat compared to the super tanker economies and we are a nation that has historically invented the modern world, its not beyond our ken to do that again.

We implore a rational, national debate on our economic future to then deliver a strategy and an operational implementation plan for Scotland’s growth. 

Signed:

Andrew Parfery,          Company Director,     Caresourcer

Andrew Wilson,          Founding Partner,       Charlotte Street Partners

Carolyn Currie,            Chief Executive,          Women’s Enterprise Scotland

Chris Van Der Kuyl CBE,          Chairman,                   4J Studios

Claus Marquordt,        Co-Founder & CEO,     Integrated Graphene Ltd.

Colin Blair,                   Chairman,                   Buzzworks Holdings

Craig Letton,               CEO,                            MRM Global

Duncan Maclean,        CEO,                            Candle Shack

Ellis Watson,               Company Director

Fraser Edmond,          CEO,                            Broker Insights

Kieran Coyle,               Company Director,     Premiership Experience

Liz Cameron OBE,       Chief Executive,          Scottish Chambers of Commerce

Mairi Mickel,               Company Director and Family Business Adviser

Marie Clare Tully,        Chief Executive,          Columba 1400

Marie Owen,               CEO,                            LS Productions

Mark Beaumont BEM, Athlete, broadcaster, investor and author

Mark Scott,                 Company Director,     Bella & Duke

Paddy Burns,               CEO,                            4J Studios

Philip Ross,                  Company Director,     Safehinge Primera

Poonam Gupta OBE,   CEO,                            PG Paper

Ramin Golzari,            Company Director,     Highlander Outdoor

Ray Perman,                Chairman,                   Inner Ear Ltd

Robin Marshall,           CEO,                            Bain Capital

Ross Tuffee,                CEO,                            Iceberg.tech

Sandy Kennedy,          Chief Executive,          Entrepreneurial Scotland Foundation

Sara Thiam,                 Chief Executive,          Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI)

Steven Easton,            Managing Director,     Green Home Systems Limited

Over £97m contributed to the economy by Barratt East Scotland

– Housebuilder supports 1,530 jobs, creates 18 new careers and 10.1ha of green space across the region –

Despite the challenges of the past year, Barratt Developments Scotland has made a substantial contribution of £245m to the UK economy, with the housebuilder’s East Scotland division supplying £97m in GVA itself.

In the year ending 30 June 2020, Barratt East Scotland has also completed 551 new homes and supported 1,530 direct, indirect and induced jobs across the region.

As the largest UK housebuilder, and one of the most sustainable, Barratt continues to safeguard the Scottish environment by creating nearly 23ha of green space. Barratt East Scotland has created 10.1ha of public green spaces and private gardens.

Barratt is working towards reducing its direct carbon emissions by 29% by 2025 and indirect emissions by 24% per square metre by 2030. In the past year, CO2e emissions per 100m.sq. of completed build area fell to 2.29t. across the East Scotland business. 99% of construction waste was also saved from landfill and 12% of new homes were built on previously developed land.

Interior architectural show home photography of David Wilson Homes Mallets Rise development in Newton Mearns

Alison Condie, managing director for Barratt Homes East Scotland, said: “We’re committed to creating strong communities, prosperous job opportunities and meaningful economic impact across the region.

“To have contributed over £97m to the economy and supported over 1,500 jobs is a fantastic achievement – especially given the challenges of the last year – and we’re determined to do even better this year.”

As part of its housebuilding activity, Barratt East Scotland has made £3m in local contributions to help build new facilities and community infrastructure. This contribution includes the provision of 202 new school places. More than £14m has also been spent on physical works within communities, such as highways, environmental improvements and community facilities.

Other key findings from the Barratt East Scotland 2020 socio-economic report include:

·       Increased support for public services with £36m in generated tax revenues

·       Over £105,000 donated to local charitable and community causes

·       300 supplier and 310 sub-contractor companies supported

·       Increased support for the UK supply chain with 90% of all components centrally procured, assembled or manufactured in-country

·       More than £9.5m in retail spending by new residents, helping support 100 retail and service-related jobs

The development of new and future talent remains a key priority for Barratt Developments Scotland and 56 graduates, apprentices and trainees launched their careers with the company in 2020, an increase from 50 in the previous year.

The assessment of Barratt Developments’ performance was carried out by independent consultants Lichfields, who analysed socio-economic impacts through the delivery chain for new housing based on Barratt datasets, published research and national statistics.