Annual poverty figures show Government failed to protect most vulnerable from cost of living crisis

Today’s official annual poverty figures show that 600,000 more people, half of them children, are living in absolute poverty – the government’s preferred measure of poverty

Today’s official annual poverty figures show that:

  • 600,000 more people, half of them children, are living in absolute poverty, the government’s preferred measure of poverty
  • This is the second year in a row absolute poverty has increased
  • In comparison to 2020/21, 900,000 more people are living in absolute poverty, 400,000 of them children
  • This the joint highest increase in this statistic for 40 years (since 1982) and is the same increase as was seen following the Global Financial Crisis (between 2010/11 and 2011/12)
  • 100,000 more children are living in relative poverty since 2021/22, a slight increase. The overall figure has slightly decreased by 100,000. In comparison to 2020/21, 900,000 more people, 400,000 of them children, are living in relative poverty
  • Food insecurity has risen dramatically, increasing from 4.7 million people (7%) in 2021/22 to 7.2 million (11%) in 2022/23

Peter Matejic, Chief Analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: “The annual poverty figures published today confirm that the Government failed to protect the most vulnerable from the cost of living crisis. Absolute poverty, the Government’s preferred measure of poverty, has risen for the second year in a row. This is as big as we have seen for 40 years.

“At the same time, there is little to celebrate in the slight fall in overall relative poverty levels. This is largely due to the incomes of middle-income households falling, rather than people on the lowest incomes being better off. This is also likely to reverse now that earnings are growing faster than inflation.

“The Government’s short-term interventions to date haven’t stopped the incomes of poorer households from being swallowed up by the soaring cost of essentials. This is despite Jeremy Hunt speaking of his commitment to protect the most vulnerable in his Autumn Statement in 2022. These results show just how far away our social security system is from adequately supporting people who have fallen on hard times.

“The prospects for people on the lowest incomes should be at the forefront of politicians’ minds as we head into a general election. We need all political parties to treat this rise in poverty with the seriousness it deserves at the coming general election and set out an ambitious plan to reverse it.

“This must involve embedding an Essentials Guarantee into Universal Credit to ensure that everyone has a protected minimum amount of support to afford essentials.”

Millions would need to DOUBLE their income just to escape poverty

Hardship deepens as millions find the poverty line further out of reach

New analysis in the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) flagship UK Poverty report quantifies for the first time how many thousands of pounds are needed by families to escape poverty – and how that has got worse over time. It is now 20 years and 6 prime ministers since there was a sustained fall in poverty.

New analysis in the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) flagship UK Poverty report quantifies for the first time how many thousands of pounds are needed by families to escape poverty – and how that has got worse over time. It is now 20 years and 6 prime ministers since there was a sustained fall in poverty.

How much you would need to move out of poverty

The poverty gap, or the amount of money needed to bring the incomes of people in poverty to the poverty line, has grown wider.  Six million of the poorest people – those living in very deep poverty – would need on average to more than double their income to move out of poverty.

Analysis of the latest data shows that the average person in poverty has an income 29% below the poverty line, with the gap up from 23% in the mid-1990s. The average income of people in very deep poverty – is 59% below the poverty line.

This is equivalent to a couple with two children under 14:

  • in poverty needing an additional £6,200 per year to reach the poverty line.  In the mid 90’s, the gap was £3,300 after adjusting for inflation.
  • in very deep poverty needing a whopping £12,800 more to reach the poverty line.

Poverty increased in the latest official data, returning close to pre-pandemic levels

  • Over one in five people in the UK (22%) were in poverty in 2021/22
  • This equates to 14.4 million people in total, with 8.1 million working-age adults, 4.2 million children and 2.1 million pensioners living in poverty
  • Nearly two-thirds (64%) of working-age adults in poverty live in working households. This has increased by 3 percentage points, from 61% to 64%, between 2020/21 and 2021/22
  • The number and proportion of children and pensioners in poverty rose between 2020/21 and 2021/22, as well as overall poverty
  • Around two in every ten adults are in poverty in the UK, with about three in every ten children being in poverty
  • Around 6 million people lived in very deep poverty in 2021/22

JRF analysis of broader trends since the 1970s shows that poverty rates grew rapidly under the Thatcher Government, reaching around a quarter in the mid to late 1990s, and have remained stubbornly high since then.

Poverty fell during the first half of the New Labour administration but started to rise after 2005. Overall, poverty has barely moved since Conservative-led Governments took power in 2010, with every year’s poverty rate since then being between 20% and 22%.

At the same time, the British public is more conscious of rising poverty levels in society. Since 2017, the majority agree that the government should increase tax and spending on health, education and other social benefits.

As we approach a general election, political parties must urgently address entrenched high levels of poverty by:

  • Introducing an ‘Essentials Guarantee’ into Universal Credit, to ensure that everyone has a protected minimum amount of support to afford essentials like food and household bills.
  • Beyond this, future governments must focus on expanding the foundations of economic security to everyone in our society. People experiencing poverty, especially deep poverty, will be looking for plans from parties to ensure that they are not left unprotected when times are hard.

Paul Kissack, Group Chief Executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, says:
 “It has been almost twenty years and six Prime Ministers since the last prolonged period of falling poverty in the UK. Instead, over the last two decades, we have seen poverty deepen, with more and more families falling further and further below the poverty line.

“Little wonder that the visceral signs of hardship and destitution are all around us – from rocketing use of foodbanks to growing numbers of homeless families. This is social failure at scale. It is a story of both moral and fiscal irresponsibility – an affront to the dignity of those living in hardship, while driving up pressures on public services like the NHS.

“It’s a story which can – and must – change.  Governments are not powerless to act, as we have seen throughout our history. One way politicians can take action in the next parliament is to enshrine in law a guarantee that people will always be able to afford the essentials, such as food and household bills, through our benefits system.

“2024 will be a year of choices, and any political party wishing to form a new Government must set out a practical and ambitious plan to turn back the tide on poverty in the UK. That plan – to ensure the dignity and respect of every member of our society – will be essential for achieving any broader ambitions for the country”.

Martin Lewis, Founder of MoneySavingExpert.com & The Money & Mental Health Policy Institute Charity said: “I warned at the start of the energy crisis that I was out of tools to help many on the lowest incomes.  “

“Now we have hit the stark reality that 100,000s of people in the UK, even after they’ve had professional help from money charities, are still deficit budgeting – so their income is less than their minimum necessary expenditure.

“Definitions of poverty are tricky, especially when based on relative incomes, but that smells like a clear indication the problem is getting worse.

“And let’s be plain, once people are in the deepest mire, it’s not a Money Saving Expert you need, its policy makers and regulators to sit up take note and address these deep rooted problems – which is exactly what I hope they do with this Joseph Rowntree Foundation report highlighting the situation and calling for change.”

Number of people in poverty and poverty rates for different groups, UK, 2021/22

GroupNumber in povertyPoverty rate (%)
People14,400,00022%
Children4,200,00029%
Working-age adults8,100,00020%
Pensioners2,100,00018%
Single pensioners1,100,00025%
Couple pensioners1,000,00014%
Single working-age adults, no children3,000,00024%
Working-age adults in a couple, no children1,900,00013%
Working-age lone parents800,00042%
Working-age parents in couple families2,400,00021%
Children in lone-parent families1,500,00044%
Children in couple families2,700,00025%

IMAGES: Miners Strike 1984

Autumn Statement: Chancellor ‘backs business and rewards workers to get Britain growing’

  • Plan for stronger economy will reward hard work, putting £450 back into the pocket of the average worker earning £35,400 a year thanks to National Insurance tax cut from 12% to 10% for 27 million working people from January.
  • Tax to be cut and simplified for 2 million of the self-employed, abolishing an entire class of NICs and cutting the rate of the NICs top rate from 9% to 8% – with an average total saving of around £350 for someone earning £28,000 a year.
  • Biggest permanent tax cut in modern British history for businesses will help them invest for less and boost investment by £20 billion per year over the next decade.
  • Triple lock maintained for pensioners, benefits to rise in line with inflation and Local Housing Allowance increased to continue supporting families with the cost-of-living.
    Government is making work pay.
  • National Living Wage rise represents boost of £1,800 to the average annual earnings of a full-time worker, and the Back to Work Plan will help over a million people start, stay, and succeed in work while ensuring tougher consequences for those choosing not to.
  • Great British pubs, breweries and distillers backed by freezing alcohol duty for six months to August 2024.
  • Public finances in a better position than in March thanks to government action, with borrowing and debt as a share of the economy down on average across the next five years.
  • Autumn Statement gets the economy growing, debt falling and helps return inflation to its 2% target – long-term decisions to build a brighter future.

Tax cuts for working people and British business headlined Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ‘Autumn Statement for Growth’ yesterday.

Aimed at building a stronger and more resilient economy, the Chancellor set out a plan to unlock growth and productivity by boosting business investment by £20 billion a year, getting more people into work, and cutting tax for 29 million workers – the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s.

With higher revenues resulting from stronger growth than previously projected and the pledge to halve inflation having been met, the government has stabilised the economy through taking sound decisions. As set out by the Prime Minister this week, the stronger outlook means taxes can now be cut in a serious, responsible way.

To that end, Mr Hunt announced that a 2 percentage point cut to Employee National Insurance from 12% to 10% will come into effect from January 2024.

For the average worker earning £35,400 a year, that amounts to an over £450 annual tax cut – almost immediately improving living standards for millions of people and rewarding hard-work as the government builds an economy for the future.

Taxes for the self-employed will also be cut and reformed. From April 2024, Class 4 NICs for the self-employed will be reduced from 9% to 8% and no self-employed person will have to pay Class 2 NICs, saving the average self-employed person on £28,200 a year £350 in 2024/25.

Taken together, this is a tax cut of over £9 billion per year and represents the largest ever cut to employee and self-employed National Insurance. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says these reductions will lead to an additional 28,000 people entering work.

Cutting National Insurance will not lead to any change in NHS funding or pension payments. Services will remain unchanged and continue to be funded as they are now.

Businesses will also benefit from the biggest business tax cut in modern British history. As signalled at Spring Budget, the Chancellor announced permanent Full Expensing: Invest for Less for those investing in IT equipment, plant, and machinery.

Full Expensing: Invest for Less is an effective permanent tax cut of £11 billion a year, boosting business investment by £14 billion across the forecast period and helping to grow the economy.

With the tax cut now permanent, the UK will continue to have both the lowest headline corporation tax rate in the G7 and the most generous capital allowances in the OECD group of major advanced economies, such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany.

Since the introduction of the super deduction – the predecessor to full expensing – in 2021, investment in the UK has grown the fastest in the G7.

To further ensure that work pays, Mr Hunt confirmed that the National Living Wage will increase by nearly 10% to £11.44 an hour from April 2024, the largest ever cash increase.

The Chancellor also reinforced the new £2.5 billion Back to Work Plan for those with long-term health conditions, disabilities and difficulties finding employment, which includes tough new sanctions for those who can work but choose not to.

The Chancellor also announced that the government will honour its commitment to the triple lock in full, with the state pension to increase by 8.5% in April in what is the second biggest ever cash increase. Universal Credit and other working age benefits will also be boosted by 6.7% in April, in line with September’s inflation figure as is convention.

Further action to help families includes increasing the Local Housing Allowance rate to cover the lowest 30% of rents from April – benefiting 1.6 million households with an average gain of £800 in 2024/25 – and an alcohol duty freeze to 1st August 2024, following common-sense changes of the duty system made possible by Brexit.

Measures today take the government’s total support for the cost-of-living between 2022-25 beyond the £100 billion mark, to an average of £3,700 per household.

Accompanying forecasts by the OBR confirm that today’s measures will make the economy permanently bigger, with growth every year of the forecast period. Borrowing and debt as a share of the economy are lower than in Spring this year and next year, with borrowing also lower on average across the forecast by comparison. They also confirm that inflation is expected to return to target in line with the Prime Minister’s economic priorities.

Tax

With inflation halved and debt forecast to fall, Mr Hunt delivered on the government’s commitment to cut taxes – rewarding and incentivising work as part of its long-term plan to grow the economy.

  • The main rate of Employee National Insurance will be cut by 2 percentage points from 12% to 10%, coming into effect from January 2024 – delivering the benefit of a tax cut quickly for 27 million workers.
  • The combined rate of income tax and National Insurance for employees paying the basic rate of tax will therefore fall from 32% to 30% – the lowest combined basic rate since the 1980s.
  • The rate of Class 4 NICs on all earnings between £12,570 and £50,270 will be cut by 1p, from 9% to 8% from April 2024.
  • The weekly Class 2 NICs – the flat rate compulsory charge which is currently £3.45 paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – will effectively be abolished, with no-one required to pay from April 2024. Access to contributory benefits will be maintained and those currently paying voluntarily will still be able to do so at the same rate.
    The cuts to Class 4 and Class 2 together amount to a tax cut of £350 a year for the average self-employed person on £28,200, with around 2 million individuals to benefit.

Business

Measures to back British businesses big and small will remove barriers to investment and help to bridge the productivity gap between the UK and its G7 peers – unlocking £20 billion extra business investment per year over the next decade.

  • Permanent Full Expensing will create the certainty that businesses need to confidently invest for less. A company can now permanently claim 100% capital allowances on qualifying main rate plant and machinery investments, meaning that for every pound invested its taxes are cut by up to 25p.
  • A business rates support package worth £4.3 billion over the next 5 years will help high streets and protect those small businesses that are the backbones of communities. This includes a rollover of 75% Retail, Hospitality and Leisure relief for 230,000 properties and a freeze to the small business multiplier, which will protect around 90% of ratepayers for a fourth consecutive year.
  • Pension reforms, including through establishing a new Growth Fund within the British Business Bank, will help unlock an extra £75 billion of financing for high-growth companies by 2030 while providing an extra £1,000 a year in retirement for the average earner saving from 18.
  • SMEs will be supported with tougher regulation on late payers to improve prompt payments, the expansion of Made Smarter in Great Britain and continued funding for Help to Grow.
  • The existing R&D Expenditure Credit and Small and Medium Enterprise Scheme will be merged from April 2024, simplifying the system and boosting innovation in the UK. 
  • The rate at which loss-making companies are taxed within the merged scheme will be reduced from 25% to 19%, and the threshold for additional support for R&D intensive loss-making SMEs will be lowered to 30%, benefiting a further 5,000 SMEs.
  • The Climate Change Agreement Scheme will be extended, giving energy intensive businesses like steel, ceramics and breweries around £300 million of tax relief every year until 2033 to encourage investment in energy efficiency and support the Net Zero transition.

Work and welfare reform

Mr Hunt set out steps to reward work, help make work pay, and reform welfare in recognition of the need to expand the workforce and get those out of work back into work to deliver growth.

The OBR expect that the measures announced at Autumn Statement will support a further 78,000 people into work by 2028-29, on top of the 110,000 resulting from action taken at Spring Budget.

  • From 1 April 2024, the National Living Wage will increase by 9.8% to £11.44 an hour for eligible workers. For the first time this will include 21- and 22-year-olds. This represents an increase of over £1,800 to the annual earnings of a full-time worker on the NLW and is expected to benefit over 2.7 million low paid workers.
  • The government will also substantially increase the National Minimum Wage rates for young people and apprentices: for people aged 18-20 by 14.8% to £8.60 an hour, for 16-17 year olds and apprentices by 21.2% to £6.40 an hour.
  • The government is reforming the Work Capability Assessment to ensure that people who can work are supported to do so via the welfare system. Changes to the activities and descriptors will better reflect the greater flexibility and reasonable adjustments now available in the world of work, preventing some individuals from being deemed not fit for work and ensuring they will be better supported into employment.
  • The boosting of four key programmes – NHS Talking Therapies, Individual Placement and Support, Restart and Universal Support – will benefit up to 1.1 million people over the next five years.
  • The government is exploring reforms of the fit note process to provide individuals whose health affects their ability to work with easy and rapid access to specialised work and health support.
  • Mandatory work placements will boost skills and employability for those who have not found a job after 18 months of intensive support. Those who choose not to engage with the work search process for six months will have their claims closed and benefits stopped.

Infrastructure and levelling up

The Chancellor unveiled a raft of supply-side measures and funding packages to benefit businesses and local communities.

  • £4.5 billion of funding for British manufacturers in the high-growth industries of the future, including £960 million earmarked for the Green Industries Growth Accelerator to support clean energy.
  • The government has published its full response to the Winser review and Connections Action Plan, which will cut grid access times for larger projects by half, halve the time to build major grid upgrades and offer up to £10,000 off electricity bills over 10 years for those living closest to new transmission infrastructure.
  • Three advanced manufacturing Investment Zones will be established in Greater Manchester, East Midlands, and West Midlands – together generating £3.4 billion of private investment and creating 65,000 high-quality jobs within the next decade.
  • The Investment Zones programme and freeport tax reliefs will be extended from 5 years to 10 years, and a new £150 million Investment Opportunity Fund will support Investment Zones and Freeports to secure specific business investment opportunities.
  • Four new devolution deals across England have been agreed. Mayoral deals with Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire, and non-mayoral deals with Lancashire and Cornwall, will boost investment right across the country and deliver on the Prime Minister’s commitment to levelling-up.
  • £500 million of funding over the next two years will help establish two more Compute innovation centres, supporting the development of artificial intelligence as a growth opportunity for Britain.
  • The life sciences will also be supported as one of the Chancellor’s key-growth sectors, with £20 million to speed up the development of new dementia treatments coming as part of the government’s full response to the O’Shaughnessy Review of commercial clinical trials in the UK.
  • To prioritise those who want to invest in the UK’s future, the government has accepted in principle the headline recommendations of Lord Harrington’s review into increasing foreign direct investment. This includes additional resource for the Office for Investment, allowing it to deepen its world-class concierge offer to strategically important investors.

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said:“This is an Autumn Statement to support hard working families and grow our country’s economy. It is great news for Scotland.

“The National Insurance cut and increase in the National Living Wage will mean a pay boost for millions of workers right across Scotland. We have honoured the pensions triple lock, meaning pensioners will get a £900 a year increase.

“Vital new support for Scottish businesses will ensure we get growth back into our economy.

“The Chancellor confirmed more than £200 million of new, direct UK Government investment in exciting projects across Scotland, which will create jobs, boost growth and transform communities.

“Plus, there will be an additional £545 million in Barnett Consequentials for the Scottish Government, on top of their record block grant.

“There is a lot to cheer about, not least the duty freeze on spirits to support Scotland’s biggest export industry.”

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Executive, Confederation of British Industry said: “With tough decisions to be made, the Chancellor was right to prioritise ‘game-changing’ interventions that will fire the economy.

“While the move on National Insurance will give hard-pressed households some much needed breathing room, making full capital expensing a permanent feature of the tax system can be transformational for accelerating growth and improving living standards in the long-term.

“Helping firms to unleash pent-up investment is critical to getting momentum into the economy. Making full expensing permanent will give firms the stability they need to press on with decisions on investment whilst keeping the UK at the top table internationally for investment incentives.

“Moves to speed up planning and grid connectivity should also bolster business confidence to invest in high growth areas like green technologies, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing.”

Eve Williams, General Manager, eBay UK said:The hundreds of thousands of UK small businesses who use eBay and other online marketplaces will warmly welcome the Chancellor’s cuts in national insurance, more support for the self-employed, as well as the decision to make permanent full expensing. 

“There are enormous productivity gains to be had from encouraging the long tail of Britain’s SMEs to invest in existing digital technologies.  And given that around half of our online businesses also trade offline, they will benefit hugely from the measures on business rates for retail as well as freezing the business rate multiplier.”

Kate Nicholls, Chief Executive, UKHospitality said: “The Chancellor has brought forward a significant package of business rates measures that will help hospitality businesses across the country. UKHospitality led the calls for Government to extend relief and take action on the multiplier and I’m delighted the Chancellor has acted on our asks.

“Reforms to the planning system to drive quicker approvals will remove a significant barrier to business investment. This type of reform to reward the best performing local planning authorities is exactly the type of change we have been suggesting to drive growth in hospitality.

“We’re also pleased that the Chancellor has acted on our proposal and frozen alcohol duty until August next year to support our supply chain.

“The reduction in National Insurance for employees will put more money in people’s pockets and provide a boost to hospitality in the New Year, often a challenging time for the sector.”

Responding to the freeze in alcohol duty until 1 August 2024

Nuno Teles, Managing Director, Diageo GB said: “Today we raise a glass to the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, who have listened to the industry’s plea for support and decided to back our homegrown sector, that employs so many people across the UK.

“Drinkers and pub-goers across the country now have even more reason to celebrate this festive season. Cheers, Chancellor!”

Responding to the announcement of £7million of funding to tackle antisemitism

Mark Gardiner, Chief Executive, Community Security Trust (CST) said: “The commitment to fund education to tackle antisemitism in universities and schools, alongside the promise to continue the increase in funding for security guarding in the Jewish community, is not just a welcome, concrete contribution to the fight against antisemitism: it sends an important and powerful message to the Jewish community that we have the sympathy and support of government in this struggle.

“We are grateful for the Chancellor for this commitment and we will work with government and communal partners to ensure it is put to effective use.”

Responding to the protection of the Triple lock

Caroline Abrahams, Influencing Director, Age UK said: “We’re pleased and relieved the Government kept its promise to older people to honour the Triple Lock.  

“For the 4.2 million older people who recently cut back on food and groceries to make ends meet, having a State Pension that delivers the basics in life is essential.

“Today’s decision also crucially makes is more likely that older people will keep their homes adequately warm this winter, with less fear of facing an energy bill they simply cannot afford to pay come the spring.”

Responding to the support for Veterans

Anna Wright, Chief Executive, the Armed Forces Covenant Fund Trust said: “We are delighted by Chancellor of the Exchequer’s announcement of an additional £10 million to support the Veterans’ Places, People and Pathways programme.

“These projects have delivered significant work already to support our veterans, growing collaborative cross sector working and giving a more seamless interface between statutory and charity or not for profit support.

“They have great potential to help even more veterans, and further develop better, more inclusive local support and better coordination and communication that sustains into the future”

Autumn Statement offers ‘worst case scenario’ for Scotland

Deputy First Minister responds to announcements from Chancellor

The Autumn Statement delivered the ‘worst case scenario’ for Scotland’s finances and failed to live up to the challenges posed by the cost of living and climate crises, Deputy First Minister Shona Robison has said.

The statement failed to deliver the investment needed in services and infrastructure, Ms Robison said. While welcoming the increase in the statutory minimum wage, she said this did not go far enough and fell well short of the Real Living Wage of £12 an hour for 2024-25.

The Deputy First Minister said: ““Today’s Autumn Statement from the UK Government has delivered what is the worst case scenario for Scotland’s finances. Scotland needed a fair deal on investment for infrastructure, public services and pay deals – the UK Government has let Scotland down on every count.

“We needed investment in the services that people rely on and in infrastructure vital to the economy, but the Chancellor’s actions failed to live up to the challenges we are facing as a nation, while not doing enough to help those on the lowest incomes.

“The cut to National Insurance shows the UK Government has the wrong priorities at the wrong time, depriving public services of vital funding. Shockingly, the health funding announced today represents an increase of less than 0.06% to Scotland’s health budget in 2023-24 of £19.138 billion.

“The increases to the state pension and Local Housing Allowance are welcome, but the increase to the minimum wage falls well short of the Real Living Wage. Some of the measures for businesses are also positive, but they come in the face of UK growth having been projected downwards as a result of Brexit and the UK Government’s mismanagement of the economy.

“As global temperatures push ever higher, the Autumn Statement was a chance to fund efforts to cut the UK’s carbon emissions – but it did not. It’s not enough to say they support measures to encourage more renewable energy developments and expand the UK’s electricity grid need. It needs to be matched with funding to actually deliver and help us meet our net zero targets.

“We will now assess the full implications of today’s statement as we develop a Budget that meets the needs of the people of Scotland, in line with our missions of equality, community and opportunity.”

The Scottish Budget will be announced on 19 December.

TUC: Hunt’s Autumn Statement “is a plan for levelling the country down”

  • Chancellor has confirmed “another round of punishing spending cuts to public services and investment”
  • Cutting NI won’t make up for “13 continued “years of economic failure on living standards and growth”
  • Growth forecasts revised down with real wages set to remain below 2008 level until 2028
  • “The Conservatives have broken Britain. They cannot be trusted to fix it,” says TUC

Commenting on the Autumn Statement, TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “This is not a plan for rebuilding Britain. It’s a plan for levelling the country down.

“At a time when our schools and hospitals are crumbling – the Chancellor has confirmed another round of punishing and undeliverable spending cuts to public services and investment.

“Be in no doubt – if the Tories win the next election, even more austerity is on the way.

“Cutting national insurance won’t make up for 13 continued years of economic failure on wages and living standards.

“Jeremy Hunt has nothing to smile about when working people are on course for a 20-year real wage freeze.

“The Conservatives have broken Britain. They cannot be trusted to fix it.”

Responding to the 2023/24 Autumn Statement, SCVO Chief Executive Anna Fowlie, said: “I share the disappointment of other voluntary sector bodies that this week’s budget Autumn Statement did not recognise the essential services and support of voluntary organisations both in Scotland and across the UK.

“Our sector is a major employer, a partner in delivering public services, and a vital contributor to society and the economy.

“The last few years have been a period of significant change and upheaval for Scottish voluntary organisations, their staff and volunteers, and the people and communities they work with. Rising inflation and the resulting cost-of-living crisis and running costs crisis has strained sector finances and increased demand for the support and services many organisations provide, as demonstrated in our Third Sector Tracker.

“This crisis is not over. We welcome the increase in the National Living Wage which will offer some support to the lowest paid, but to meet the rising cost-of-living this needed to go further, lifting both the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage to at least Real Living Wage.

“Our sector is central to building a stronger economy and offers specialist support to those furthest from the labour market and should be included in these plans.

“To protect our sector’s essential contributions for the future, underfunding and a lack of inflation-based uplifts in grants and contracts needed to be addressed in this statement. As people and communities struggle through the largest reduction in household incomes since records began in the 1950s, our support will be needed more than ever.”

‘Shameful’ increase in destitution

The UK has seen a “shameful increase” in destitution, though Scotland has had “by far the lowest” rise in the numbers, a new report has found.

Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found that across the UK, there were an estimated 3.8 million people suffering from destitution – with this including more than one million children.

According to the report, rising levels of destitution mean almost two-and-a-half times as many people are suffering as there were in 2017, with nearly three times as many youngsters affected.

Rates of destitution – where people are not able to afford to meet their basic needs to stay warm, dry, clean and fed – were highest in the London borough of Newham, it found.

While Glasgow City Council was ranked 26th in the 30 local authorities with the worst rates of destitution, it had dropped 16 places from the previous report in 2019.

The report found that at a regional level, London had the highest destitution levels in 2022, followed by the North East and the North West of England, and then the West Midlands.

The regions in the south of England had the lowest rates of destitution, with both Wales and Scotland having rates comparable with the Midlands.

While destitution had increased in all regions of the UK over the period 2019 to 2022, the report found Scotland’s position had improved “with by far the lowest increase since 2019”.

It added: “This may be indicative of the growing divergence in welfare benefits policies in Scotland, notably the introduction of the Scottish Child Payment.”

The benefit, which was introduced in Scotland in 2021, gives £25 per child under 16 a week to eligible low-income families.

The report, the fourth in a series by the JRF, with research carried out by Edinburgh’s Heriot-Watt University, found overall “there has been a shameful increase in the level of destitution in the UK”.

It highlighted the “growing number of people struggling to afford to meet their most basic physical needs to stay warm, dry, clean and fed”, insisting there was now an “urgent need for action”.

Stating that the problem has “been increasing at an alarming rate since 2017” the report added: “Around 1.8 million households were destitute in the UK at some point over the course of 2022.

“These households contained around 3.8 million people, of whom around a million were children.”

It found that as in previous studies, food was the most common essential that people struggling with destitution lacked in 2022.

But with energy bills having risen rapidly, heating was the second most common thing for people to struggle with, followed by clothes and toiletries.

The report calls on the UK Government to introduce an “Essentials Guarantee” into Universal Credit payments, ensuring that the basic amount people receive covers all basic needs “such as food, energy, toiletries and cleaning products”.

Doing this “would have a significant impact on destitution”, the report says.

However, Chris Birt, associate director for the JRF in Scotland said governments at both Holyrood and Westminster needed to “step up” to deal with the problem.

He said: “The UK is a country with dramatically increasing destitution, where millions of people can’t afford heating or can’t afford the basic essentials like clothes or food. In a country this wealthy, that is outrageous.

“But this needn’t be the case, destitution in Scotland is rising much more slowly than in other parts of the UK with the Scottish Child Payment and local welfare support offering some protection.

“Despite this, there is no cause for celebration when destitution numbers aren’t falling.

Mr Birt continued: “It is time for both governments to step up to this challenge that years of failed government policy have caused.

“This is particularly acute for the UK Government and all the parties that are bidding to run it after the next election – they must come through for the Scottish people by embracing the Essentials Guarantee.

“The Scottish Government can also do more and will need to show it is willing to turn the tide on destitution in its forthcoming budget.”

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said that this year and last year the Scottish Government had “allocated almost £3 billion to support policies to tackle poverty and to protect people as far as possible during the cost-of-living crisis, especially those are most impacted”.

She added that as of the end of June, the Scottish Child Payment was providing 316,000 children with support worth £25 per week, with the Scottish Government also making £83.7 million available through Discretionary Housing Payments to “mitigate UK government welfare cuts”.

Ms Somerville said: “We estimate that 90,000 fewer children will live in relative and absolute poverty this year as a result of our policies, with poverty levels nine percentage points lower than they would have otherwise been.

“We continue to urge the UK Government to introduce an Essentials Guarantee to ensure people can afford life’s essentials and ensure vulnerable people are properly supported.”

An NSPCC spokesperson said: “Everybody, of any age, deserves to live with dignity. These shocking figures are a stark wake-up call about the increasing number of children facing the physical and emotional hardship of living in extreme poverty.

“Evidence shows that poverty can result in families, through no fault of their own, struggling to meet their child’s most basic needs so they can grow up in a happy, healthy and safe environment.

Governments in the UK need to act now to address these spiralling levels of poverty and turn the tide for families who desperately need help.

“This means concerted action to reduce child poverty as well as significant investment in children’s services so families who are struggling get timely and meaningful support.”

Understanding the impact of the transition to net zero on low paid jobs

Discussions about the necessities and trade-offs around the transition to net zero are back on the news agenda this week (write Fraser of Allander Institute’s EMMA CONGREVER and CIARA CRUMMEY).

The changes required to meet net zero targets are complex and challenging yet the risks of not doing enough are immense.  Inherent in this are trade-offs but also opportunities. An ordered transition where businesses and households have certainty over what they will need to do is the best way to minimise harm to incomes and to maximise the benefits that can be realised.

For many businesses and households, the costs associated transition to net zero will be manageable, and perhaps even cost effective in the long run. But for some, the upfront costs will be difficult to manage.

Whilst there is a general awareness of the direct costs that will fall on households from, for example the phasing out of gas boilers (a devolved policy, so not affected by the UK Prime Minister’s recent announcement) there is also the impact in livelihoods due to changes in the structure of the economy.

At the moment, all the attention is on the ‘just transition’ for workers in carbon-intensive industries, in the North East in particular. But the impact on jobs could be far wider than this.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation asked us, along with colleagues in the Strathclyde Business School, to look into the potential for disruption to jobs in the wider Scottish economy, particularly in relation to low paid jobs. Our assessment of the available literature and various Scottish Government plans, reports and action plans didn’t provide much to go on, so we embarked on some experimental mapping and modelling of the potential intersection of net zero and low pay.

Today we published a report that we hope provides a rationale and a way forward for government, and others, to consider this issue fully. Whilst we can’t yet confidently put a figure on it, we have found that there is potential for significant disruption to jobs in sectors that employ large numbers of low pay workers, including retail and hospitality.

The mechanisms through which this impact could be felt are varied. Issues we looked at included the knock-on impact from depressed wages in areas where carbon intensive businesses cease trading. We also considered the impact on the viability of businesses with large commercial footprints who may need to invest large amounts to bring buildings up to new energy efficient standards.

There are many unknowns in this type of analysis, including the sufficiency of government policy and the behavioural response from consumers. For example, the Scottish Government is hoping to see car use reduced in Scotland.

Households may also independently decide they wish to reduce car use. It is easy to see how this could impact on the viability of out-of-town shopping centres that rely on customers arriving by car and if there aren’t serious efforts to provide adequate replacement public transport or alternative active travel routes, these large centres of employment may become unviable.

Some of the scenarios that we work through may not lead to jobs disappearing completely, but simply shifting to other places or other sectors. There are two further issues to consider here. Firstly, low paid workers tend to be less flexible on where they can work, due to a variety of factors including available transport and difficulties finding affordable childcare to cover long commuting times.

They also tend have less of a financial buffer to deal with even short periods of unemployment. Secondly, simply moving low paid jobs from one place to another misses a crucial opportunity to maximise the benefits that the transition to net zero could bring by providing career pathways into new, higher paid, growth sectors.

There is an opportunity here to better join up Scottish Government ambitions on tackling poverty and the transition to net zero that is currently missing from both the Just Transition plans and the Fair Work Action Plan. We hope this analysis will be useful in informing the future development of this work.

BPS supports Essentials Guarantee

BPS SUPPORTS CAMPAIGN TO MAKE UNIVERSAL CREDIT ENOUGH FOR PEOPLE TO AFFORD TO COVER ESSENTIALS

The British Psychological Society has joined the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), the Trussell Trust, and other leading health and care organisations and charities to call for an “Essentials Guarantee”, a new law to make sure Universal Credit’s basic rate is always at least enough for people to afford the essentials. 

The organisations are warning that so many people are routinely going without the essentials it poses a serious risk to the UK’s health.

Together, they have written to the Prime Minister to express their worry that, as the high prices of everyday essentials like food and housing persist, too many people are expected to live with what can be devastating knock-on consequences. 

JRF’s own analysis shows the weekly Universal Credit standard allowance is £35 less than the cost of essential items for a single person, contributing to millions of people forced to use food banks because they can’t make ends meet.

Dr Roman Raczka, President-Elect of the British Psychological Society, and Chair of its Division for Clinical Psychology, said: “Nobody should be in a position of being unable to afford the essentials they and their families need to sustain their health and wellbeing, and it’s clear the current level of Universal Credit falls woefully short.  

“Poverty is one of the major risk factors for the development of physical and mental health problems, and we know that children growing up in poverty are three-to-four times more likely to develop mental health problems, which also leads to long-term impacts upon their education, life chances and quality of life.

“If the government is truly committed to preventing health inequalities from widening further, tackling poverty, and reducing pressure on our already stretched and underfunded public services, it must commit to the Essentials Guarantee to protect this generation, and generations to come.”

About the Essentials Guarantee

The Essentials Guarantee would embed in our social security system the widely supported principle that, at a minimum, Universal Credit should protect people from going without essentials.

Developed in line with public attitude insights and focus groups, this policy would enshrine in legislation:

  1. an independent process to regularly determine the Essentials Guarantee level, based on the cost of essentials (such as food, utilities and vital household items) for the adults in a household (excluding rent and council tax);
  2. that Universal Credit’s standard allowance must at least meet this level; and
  3. that deductions (such as debt repayments to government, or as a result of the benefit cap) can never pull support below this level.

The UK Government would be required to set the level of the Essentials Guarantee at least annually, based on the recommendation of the independent process. JRF analysis indicates that it would need to be at least around £120 a week for a single adult and £200 for a couple.

Poverty Alliance: Action needed NOW to lift children out of poverty

We have to make sure that @scotgov‘s plan to end #ChildPoverty – ‘Bright Start, Bright Futures’ – is right.

This important report from our friends at @jrf_uk and @SaveChildrenSCO shows that – despite very welcome action – there is a lot to do:

Ofgem: Energy price cap to increase by £693 from April

We know this rise will be extremely worrying for many people, especially those who are struggling to make ends meet”

  • Record increase in global gas prices sees energy price cap rise of 54%
  • Ofgem knows this rise will be extremely worrying for many people
  • Customers struggling to pay their energy bill should contact their supplier to access the help available

The energy price cap will increase from 1 April for approximately 22 million customers. Those on default tariffs paying by direct debit will see an increase of £693 from £1,277 to £1,971 per year (difference due to rounding). Prepayment customers will see an increase of £708 from £1,309 to £2,017. 

The increase is driven by a record rise in global gas prices over the last 6 months, with wholesale prices quadrupling in the last year.

It will affect default tariff customers who haven’t switched to a fixed deal and those who remain with their new supplier after their previous supplier exited the market.

The price cap is updated twice a year and tracks wholesale energy and other costs.

It stops energy companies from making excessive profits, ensuring customers pay no more than a fair price for their energy.

The price cap allows energy companies to pass on all reasonable costs to customers, including increases in the cost of buying gas.

Since the price cap was last updated in August, the current level does not reflect the unprecedented record rise in gas prices which has since taken place.

Under the price cap mechanism, energy companies will be allowed to pass on these higher costs from April when the new level takes effect.

This is because energy companies cannot afford to supply electricity and gas to their customers for less than they have paid for it.

Over the last year, 29 energy companies have exited the market or been put in special administration in the wake of soaring global gas prices, affecting around 4.3 million domestic customers.

Jonathan Brearley, chief executive of Ofgem, said: “We know this rise will be extremely worrying for many people, especially those who are struggling to make ends meet, and Ofgem will ensure energy companies support their customers in any way they can.

“The energy market has faced a huge challenge due to the unprecedented increase in global gas prices, a once in a 30-year event, and Ofgem’s role as energy regulator is to ensure that, under the price cap, energy companies can only charge a fair price based on the true cost of supplying electricity and gas. 

“Ofgem is working to stabilise the market and over the longer term to diversify our sources of energy which will help protect customers from similar price shocks in the future.”

Ofgem will tomorrow announce further measures to help the energy market weather future volatility by increasing financial resilience and have the flexibility to respond so that risks are not inappropriately passed on to consumers.

This follows measures announced in December.

The further measures include enabling Ofgem to update the price cap more frequently than once every 6 months in exceptional circumstances to ensure that it still reflects the true cost of supplying energy.

Help available for customers:

  • If customers are struggling to pay for energy bills, they should contact their energy supplier as soon as possible. Depending on their circumstances, customers may be eligible for extra help with their energy bills or services, such as debt repayment plans, payment breaks, emergency credit for prepayment metered customers, priority support and schemes like the Winter Fuel Payment or Warm Home Discount rebate.
  • Breathing Space Scheme: This is a scheme to give households time to receive debt advice and find a solution to sort out their debt problems. Breathing space will last for 60 days as long as applicants remain eligible during which time all creditors who have been included will be informed and must stop any collection or enforcement activity. Once the breathing space ends, creditors will be able to collect the debt in the usual way. Call the National Debtline on Freephone 0808 808 4000 or visit www.nationaldebtline.org
  • The Citizens Advice consumer service can provide advice on how customers can resolve problems with their energy provider. You can contact Citizens Advice via webchat, or by calling 0808 223 1133. For complex or urgent cases, or if a person is in a vulnerable situation, they may then be referred onto the Extra Help Unit. 

2. Ofgem will announce further measures tomorrow including:

  • Introducing an uplift in the wholesale cost allowance in the price cap: after reviewing the evidence, Ofgem has decided that the existing price cap methodology did not appropriately account for the additional wholesale energy costs energy companies have incurred during the current price cap period following the unprecedented scale of wholesale energy prices and volatility. This adjustment represents less than 10% of the overall price cap increase.
  • Changing licence conditions to give Ofgem the more flexibility to change the price cap level if needed in between the regular six-monthly cap updates: Ofgem has set ourselves five tests which mean we will only expect to use the power in exceptional circumstances.
  • Further reforms to the price cap from October: In December we set out three options to make the price cap more robust to high and volatile wholesale energy costs while preserving as far as possible the benefits of the price cap for consumers. The consultation published tomorrow will include all three options, with quarterly updates as our preferred option

Breakdown of costs in the energy price cap

Dual fuel customer paying by direct debit, typical energy use (GB £)

Dual fuel customer paying by direct debit, typical energy use

*Network costs: The main driver of this increase is the recovery of Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) levy costs (£68). A supplier acting as a SoLR can make a claim for any reasonable additional, otherwise unrecoverable, costs they incur. These levy claims are paid to energy companies by the distribution network companies and recovered from consumers via their charges.

5. The charts below show the wholesale prices that are used to determine the wholesale cost allowance within the price cap from spring 2018 ahead of the introduction of the price cap in January 2019.

Wholesale costs make up the majority of a customer’s bill. An efficient supplier will purchase energy for their customers on the wholesale market in advance of when they need to supply that energy.

This purchasing strategy is reflected in how the wholesale allowance is calculated within the price cap. We observe the forward-looking energy contracts that energy companies typically purchase over time and combine these to determine the wholesale cost allowance within the price cap.

We do this twice a year when we update the price cap in August for the winter period (October – March) and in February for the summer period (April – September) based on the price of these forward-looking energy contracts over the previous six months.

The fixed horizontal line shows the average wholesale cost allowance for each 6 month price cap period based on the price of the relevant forward looking energy contracts (the jagged line).

The recent spike in the prices of relevant forward looking energy contracts over the last 6 months can be clearly seen. The scale and pace of wholesale price increases has resulted in a big increase in the wholesale cost allowance for the price cap level for summer 2022.

Wholesale gas price costs in the energy price cap

Pence per therm

Wholesale gas price costs in the energy price cap

Wholesale electricity price costs in the energy price cap

Pounds per megawatt hour

Wholesale electricity price costs in the energy price cap

Data sets behind these graphs are proprietary and can be sourced from ICIS.

Chancellor’s statement – Energy Price Cap

Statement, as delivered by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, on 3 February 2022:

Mr Speaker,

The UK’s economic recovery has been quicker and stronger than forecast.

In the depths of the pandemic, our economy was expected to return to its pre-crisis level at the end of 2022.

Instead, it got there in November 2021 – a full year earlier.

Unemployment was expected to peak at nearly 12%.

Instead, it peaked at 5.2% and has now fallen to just over 4% – saving more than 2 million jobs.

And with the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year…

Over 400,000 more people on payrolls than before the pandemic…

And business investment rising…it’s no wonder Mr Speaker, that borrowing is set to fall from £320bn last year …

… the highest ever peacetime level …

… to £46bn by the end of this Parliament.

As we emerge from the depths of the worst recession in 300 years, we should be proud of our economic record.

The economy is stronger because of the plan we put in place; because of the actions we took to protect families and businesses.

And that plan is working.

But for all the progress we are making – the job is not yet done.

Right now, I know the number one issue on people’s minds is the rising cost of living.

It is the independent Bank of England’s role to deliver low and stable inflation – and the Governor will set out their latest judgements at midday today.

And just as the government stood behind the British people through the pandemic…

… so we will help people deal with one of the biggest costs they now face – energy.

The energy regulator, OFGEM, announced this morning that the energy price cap will rise in April to £1,971 – an increase of £693 for the average household. Without government action, this would be incredibly tough for millions of hardworking families. So the government is going to step in to directly help people manage those extra costs.

Mr Speaker,

Before I set out the steps we are taking, let me explain what’s happening to energy prices, and why.

People’s energy bills are rising because it is more expensive for the companies who supply our energy to buy oil, coal, and gas.

Of the £693 increase in the April price cap, around 80% comes from wholesale energy prices.

Over the last year, the price of gas alone has quadrupled.

And because over 85% of homes in Britain are heated with a gas boiler, and around 40% of our electricity comes from gas, this is hitting households hard.

The reasons gas prices are soaring are global.

Across Europe and Asia, a long, cold winter last year depleted gas stores.

Disruption to other energy sources like nuclear and wind left us relying more than usual on gas during the summer months.

Surging demand in the world’s manufacturing centres in Asia…

… at the same time as countries like China are moving away from coal…

… is further increasing demand for gas.

And concerns about a possible Russian incursion into Ukraine are putting further pressure on wholesale gas markets.

And so prices are rising.

Mr Speaker,

The price cap has meant that the impact of soaring gas prices has so far fallen mainly on energy companies.

So much so, that some suppliers who couldn’t afford to meet those extra costs have gone out of business as a result.

It is not sustainable to keep holding the price of energy artificially low.

For me to stand here and pretend we don’t have to adjust to paying higher prices would be wrong and dishonest. But what we can do is take the sting out of a significant price shock for millions of families … by making sure the increase in prices is smaller initially and spread over a longer period.

Mr Speaker,

Without government intervention, the increase in the price cap would leave the average household having to find an extra £693.

The actions I’m announcing today will provide, to the vast majority of households, just over half that amount – £350.

In total, the government is going to help around 28 million households this year.

Taken together, this is a plan to help with the cost of living worth around £9bn.

We’re delivering that support in three different ways.

First, we will spread the worst of the extra costs of this year’s energy price shock over time.

This year, all domestic electricity customers will receive an upfront discount on their bills worth £200.

Energy suppliers will apply the discount on people’s bills from October.

With the government meeting the cost in full.

That discount will be automatically repaid from people’s bills in equal £40 instalments over the next five years.

This is the right way to support people while staying on track with our plans to repair the public finances.

And because we are taking a fiscally responsible approach, we can also provide more help, faster, to those who need it most – the second part of our plan.

We’re going to give people a £150 Council Tax rebate to help with the cost of energy, in April – and this discount won’t need to be repaid.

And I do want to be clear with the House that we are deliberately not just giving support to people on benefits.

Lots of people on middle incomes are struggling right now, too – so I’ve decided to provide the council tax rebate to households in Bands A to D.

This means around 80% of all homes in England will benefit.

And the third part of our plan will provide local authorities with a discretionary fund of nearly £150m…

… to help those lower income households who happen to live in higher Council Tax properties…

… and households in bands A-D who are exempt from Council Tax.

We’re also confirming today that we’ll go ahead with existing plans to expand eligibility for the Warm Home Discount by almost a third…

… so that 3m vulnerable households will now benefit from that scheme.

And that’s not all we’re doing to help vulnerable households.

We’re providing £3bn over this Parliament to help more than half a million lower income homes become more energy efficient, saving them on average £290 per year.

Increasing the National Living Wage to £9.50 an hour in April, a pay rise of over £1,000 for 2 million low paid workers.

And providing an effective tax cut for those on Universal Credit, allowing almost 2 million households to keep an average of £1,000 per year.

The payment through energy suppliers will apply across England, Wales and Scotland.

Energy policy is devolved in Northern Ireland, with a different regulator, and the government does not have the legal powers to intervene.

So we will make sure the Executive is funded to do something similar, with around £150m for Northern Ireland through the Barnett formula next year.

And because the Council Tax system is England only, total Barnett consequentials of around £565m will be provided to the devolved administrations in the usual way.

Mr Speaker,

I know that some in this House have argued for a VAT cut on energy.

However, that policy would disproportionately benefit wealthier households.

There would also be no guarantee that suppliers would pass on the discounts to all customers.

And we should be honest with ourselves: this would become a permanent Government subsidy on everyone’s bills.

A permanent subsidy worth £2.5 billion every year – at a time when we are trying to rebuild the public finances.

Instead, our plan allows us to provide more generous support, faster, to those who need it most, providing 28m households with at least £200, and the vast majority receiving £350.

It is fair, it is targeted, it is proportionate – it is the right way to help people with the spike in energy costs.

Mr Speaker,

Today’s announcements are just one part of the government’s plan to tackle this country’s most pressing economic challenges.

A plan for growth – with record investments in infrastructure, innovation and skills.

A plan to restore the public finances – with debt falling by the end of this Parliament.

A plan to cut waiting lists and back the NHS with £29bn over three years and a permanent new source of funding.

And, with the measures I’ve announced today – a plan to help with the rising cost of energy with £350 more in the pockets of tens of millions of hard working families.

That’s our plan to build a stronger economy – not just today but for the long term.

And I commend it to this House.

Commenting on the energy cap rise, interest rate rise and the Chancellor’s measures to address the cost of living crisis, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “The Chancellor’s announcement is hopelessly inadequate. For most families it’s just £7 a week and more than half must be paid back.

“It’s too little, it’s poorly targeted, and it’s stop gap measures instead of fixing the big problems.

“Britain needs a pay rise. The best way to help families is to get wages growing again. But this government has no plan to end pay misery.

“Ministers should be getting urgent help to families that need it most through raising universal credit. And we need a windfall tax on the excessive profits from North Sea gas to cut bills and boost investment in affordable energy.”

Responding to today’s announcements on energy costs and the cost of living, Katie Schmuecker, Deputy Director of Policy and Partnerships for the independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation said:  “The Chancellor has offered cold comfort to families in poverty, who are already rationing what they can spend on essentials such as heating and food.

“These families are now expected to find at least half of the eye watering increases in energy bills, when many are already getting into debt to keep their houses warm and food on the table.  

“Three quarters of those who can claim the enhanced support are not in poverty. Meanwhile inflation is set to rise at more than double the rate of benefits. This support will not get people through the next few months and it will not protect those most at risk of hardship. 

“People in poverty are hit hardest by all these pressures because our social security system is simply not offering adequate support, and until that changes they will continue to be exposed to every economic shock. 

“The Chancellor has made his choice, the harder choices will now be coming for those who still can’t afford essentials for themselves and their families.”

 University of Birmingham’s Harriet Thomson on the rise of energy price caps: “This news comes at a time when families across Great Britain have already been facing years of rapidly increasing energy prices, as well as chaotic energy market conditions with the collapse of around 20 energy supplies since January 2021 alone.

“Just last month, ONS data found that 2 in 3 adults said their costs of living had gone up in the past month, with 79% of those attributing blame to gas and electricity prices.

“We know from the extensive body of existing evidence on this topic that lower income households will be disproportionately hit by the price cap increase, risking pushing millions more into a situation fuel poverty.

“This will have serious consequences for physical and mental health, social isolation, and educational attainment, with households forced to make difficult everyday decisions over whether to ‘heat or eat’.  

“Moreover, these price increases are likely to push more people into using risky and/or polluting alternative energy sources, such as DIY candle heaters that have been linked to house fires, burning scrap wood and other flammable materials, and digging up peat. As well as the obvious risks to human life, these approaches will also exacerbate climate change.

“It’s clear that energy companies are reeling from the potent combination of cash flow reductions due to pandemic-related economic pressures on families who are building up more energy debt, and the global gas crisis.

“But the answer is not to burden households with yet more costs. The energy market is broken and needs radical reform – now is the time for the UK government to show ambition and commitment to the nation by investing in deep retrofits of our old and leaky housing stock, and to rollout decentralised renewable energy systems at scale.”

Rising energy bills to ‘devastate’ poorest families

New analysis from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation finds households on low incomes will be spending on average 18% of their income after housing costs on energy bills after April.

For single adult households on low incomes this rises to a shocking 54%, an increase of 21 percentage points since 2019/20.

Lone parents and couples without children will spend around a quarter of their incomes on energy bills, an increase of almost 10 percentage points in the same period.

The analysis compares the household spend on gas and electricity bills of several different family types on low and middle incomes between 2019-20 and after the increase in April this year.

Energy bills household impact

The chart shows the proportion of different households’ incomes that is spent on energy, in 2019/20 and after April 2022. The full analysis is available on request.

While there is little difference in the overall increase in bills from April, with all households facing an immediate increase of between around 40% and 47%, the difference in the proportion of household incomes these increases will represent is stark.

Middle-income households will be spending on average 6% of their incomes on energy bills, and no more than 8% for any family type considered.

The figures are released alongside JRF’s flagship state-of-the-nation report which reveals a worrying increase in the number of children growing up in very deep poverty.

Around 1.8 million children are growing up in very deep poverty, meaning the household’s income is so low that it is completely inadequate to cover the basics.[2] This represents an increase of half a million children between 2011-12 and 2019-20.

JRF is warning that without additional support, people already in poverty are likely to find a sharp increase in energy bills very difficult to cope with.

People living in deep and persistent poverty were already under constant pressure trying to afford food, bills and other essentials. With the impact of rising energy bills expected to be much harsher for families on low incomes, there is a clear case for targeted protections to prevent serious hardship once the energy price cap is lifted.

Following a cut to Universal Credit in the autumn, the level of support for people who are unable to work or looking for work remains profoundly inadequate. JRF is calling for an immediate emergency payment for people on the lowest incomes to help prevent hardship in the months ahead.

Katie Schmuecker at JRF said: “The reality for many families is that too many children know the constant struggle of poverty. The fact that more children are in poverty and sinking deeper into poverty should shame us all.

“The case for targeted support to help people on the lowest incomes could not be clearer. But this must go hand in hand with urgent action to strengthen our social security system, which was woefully inadequate even before living costs began to rise.

“Our basic rate of benefits is at its lowest real rate for 30 years and this is causing avoidable hardship. The Government must do the right thing and strengthen this vital public service.

“Rising energy prices will affect everyone, but our analysis shows they have the potential to devastate the budgets of families on the lowest incomes. The Government cannot stand by and allow the rising cost of living to knock people off their feet.”

Family typeLow income familyMiddle income family
Proportion of income After Housing Costs spent on gas and electricityPpt increaseProportion of income After Housing Costs spent on gas and electricityPpt increase
2019/20April-Sept 20222019/20April-Sept 2022
Working-age family with children (2)10%16%6%3%6%2%
…with couple parents9%14%5%3%6%2%
… with lone parent family15%25%9%4%7%3%
Working-age family without children (2)19%29%11%4%6%2%
…couple without children14%22%8%4%6%3%
…single adults without children33%54%21%5%8%2%
Pensioner family10%15%5%4%7%2%
All families12%18%7%4%6%2%

[2] Very deep poverty is defined as household income equivalent to or less than 40% of the average income for their family type in the UK. On average across all family types, a household in very deep poverty would have an income of £9,900 or less per year after housing costs, taxes and National Insurance contirbutions are deducted although this varies by family type as shown in this table.

Household typeMaximum household income after housing costs, taxes and NIAverage household income after housing costs, taxes and NI
Very deep povertyDeep povertyPovertyAverage income
Lone parent with two children, one 14 or over and one under 14AnnualWeeklyAnnualWeeklyAnnualWeeklyAnnualWeekly
£11,900£228£14,900£285£17,900£343£29,800£571
Couple with two children one 14 and over and one under 14£16,100£308£20,100£385£24,200£462£40,300£771
Adult, no children£5,800£110£7,200£138£8,700£166£14,400£276
Couple with no children£9,900£190£12,400£238£14,900£285£24,900£476