Month: February 2025

Fraser of Allander: Scotland’s Budget

Budget Deals, Budget Revisions, and Budget Pressures

There was a lot of focus this week on the Budget deal struck by the Scottish Government, which will allow the Budget to be supported by the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats (write Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE and SANJAM SURI).

In early January, Anas Sarwar announced that Scottish Labour would abstain on the Budget as the Scottish Government were likely to secure support from the budget from one or other of these parties. Of course, this meant that the Scottish Government did not need to secure support from other parties to ensure that the budget would pass.

However, no doubt John Swinney will be pleased that he can demonstrate working across the chamber, and particularly constitutional boundaries, to come to a deal.

On the face of it, the price paid for the support of these parties seems pretty cheap (in the scheme of the SG Budget!), totalling £16.7m.

With the Scottish Liberal Democrats (TOTAL £7.7m):

  • Increase Drugs and Neonatal Service Investment. +£2.5m
  • Strengthen support for Hospices. Increase the funding from £4m to £5m. +£1m
  • Invest in targeted support for the College sector. +£3.5m in creating an Offshore Wind Skills Programme and College Care Skill Programme.
  • Support the continuation of Corseford College. + 0.7m
  • Offer flexibility to Orkney Island Council in terms of capital and resource funding.

With the Scottish Greens (~£9m):

  • Establish a £2 bus fare cap pilot in a regional transport partnership area. +£3m in 25-26 (£10m in total)
  • Increase Nature Restoration funding. increase from £23 million to £26 million. +£3m
  • Extend free school meal eligibility in S1-S3 in 8 local authority areas – covering pupils in an urban, rural, semi-urban and island authorities in receipt of Scottish Child Payment. +£3m (although it looks like most costs will fall in 2026/27, so not sure about the exact cost in 2025-26)

The Scottish Government say that this will be funded by another draw down from the Scotwind fund (more on Scotwind below) of £3 million to support the capital spending on nature restoration, and the remaining amendments are funded through debt servicing costs which they expect will be lower than they expected at the Draft Budget in early December.

The Spring Budget Revision changes the picture for 2024-25 considerably

Getting less coverage this week is the Spring Budget Revision, which was laid before parliament on Thursday. This is a pretty technical document, with the “supporting notes” document running to 146 pages. This is for the current year, and now reflects the additional Barnett consequentials which were announced through the UK Budget for 2024-25

[By way of background, these revisions happen twice a year, once in the Autumn and once in the Spring, to update the parliament to changes in the funding positions for the current fiscal year. The Budget bill will normally be passed by late February. The ABR comes in roughly Oct/Nov, then the Spring one in Jan/Feb]

The Government did not include any of these announcements in the baseline comparisons for the Budget in December. When asked about the uplifts for 2024-25 in the wake of the UK Budget, they said that the £1.4bn extra in resource funding for 2024-25 was “in line with internal planning assumptions”. This was in the context of the clear budgetary pressures earlier in the financial year, which lead to the emergency budget announcements in September 2024.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission were not please with this, saying “This is a material limitation to information available to the Scottish Parliament for its scrutiny of the Budget and in the spending analysis we can do.”

The SBR published yesterday shows how this money has been allocated in the current year.

The highlights for us are:

  • The £338m resource borrowing that had been planned to cover for a forecast error reconciliation will not be necessary (so they had planned that borrowing into the 2024-25 budget due to this negative reconciliation from previous years, and now do not need to use it because of the funding received)
  • That the planned £424m drawdown for the Scotwind licencing fund will all now be returned (they had already announced that they would reduce this drawdown by £300m at the Budget but now they are returning all of it because of the funding received)
  • That £103m more than planned will be put into the Scotland reserve.

Two things are demonstrated by where the money has gone – first, that it does not seem credible that it was in line with “internal planning assumptions”, in the context of emergency budget measures prior to the UK Budget followed by cancelling of already planned borrowing. Second, it would have helped scrutiny for the 2025-26 Budget if this had been included in the baseline presented at the Scottish Budget, given the SFC role in assessing borrowing and use of the reserve and the role of the Finance and Public Administration Committee.

The restoration of the Scotwind fund is welcome – let’s hope now it will be exclusively committed to capital/infrastructure spending to support the energy transition. It would be good if this could be formally done so the money cannot be used in this way in the future.

Employer NICs likely to cause more budget pressures

We’ve covered the impacts that the employer NICS rises could cause to public services in Scotland.

As a reminder, the Chancellor increased both the rate of employer NICS (from 13.8% to 15%) and lowered the threshold at which employers have to start paying NICS (from £9,100 to £5,000). At the time of the Budget, the Treasury said that public sector employers will be compensated – but no amounts were confirmed, which caused the Scottish Government to (quite rightly) raise concerns about the uncertainty that this would cause.

We’ve heard from the Scottish Government that the expected impact is expected to
range anywhere between £550m (for public sector workers), and £750m (including indirect employees such as childcare, higher education, social care).  We estimated around £500 for the direct public sector. The rumoured amount on the table from the Treasury is £280-300m. Our blog explains the reasons behind these different amounts.

[But, in short, the difference between the SG and the Treasury is what “compensating” the public sector means – the actual cost, or the actual cost if the size and pay bill of the public sector in Scotland was proportionately the same as the UK.]

Whatever the final amount, it is unlikely the whole cost to the public sector will be covered. We said at the time of the Budget that the Scottish Government hadn’t budgeted for this likely shortfall.

Kate Forbes said this week that the public sector in Scotland will have to “absorb” the shortfall- which basically means that the public sector would have to find savings or efficiencies elsewhere to absorb the budgetary impacts of higher NICS.

The confirmation of the compensation will not come until the Supplementary Estimates are published (which might be as late as the end of February). This means that bodies like councils, who are currently trying to set their budgets, will likely have to plan on the basis of absorbing maybe 40-70% of this additional cost until they get confirmation.

Given the scale of financial challenges councils face, this may well impact on the proposed council tax changes they have to consider.

Scottish Opera’s Primary Schools tour show The Tale o’ Tam O’Shanter explores Robert Burns’ classic

Scottish Opera’s much-loved Primary Schools Tour visits over 120 schools from 3 February until 27 June with The Tale o’ Tam o’ Shanter, a show created to re-introduce young people to the works of celebrated poet, Robert Burns.

Based on Tam o’ Shanter, this fast-paced adventure was written especially for children in primaries 5, 6 and 7, and the fully-booked tour heads to schools in Glasgow, Ayrshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Stirling, the Highlands, Clackmannanshire, Aberdeen, Angus, Fife, Lanarkshire, Argyll and Bute, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, the Scottish Borders, West Lothian and Shetland, as well as Newcastle.

Last performed in 2017, The Tale o’ Tam o’ Shanter features original lyrics by Ross Stenhouse and music by Karen MacIver, who composed the score for Special Delivery, the Christmas 2024 co-production between Scottish Opera, Visible Fictions and Lanterhouse at Cumbernauld Theatre. She also wrote the music for RED, performed by Scottish Opera Young Company last summer.  

The show follows the farmer Tam o’ Shanter, as he makes his way home from market day with his faithful horse Meg. As the night grows darker, the rain falls and the wind shrieks through the branches of the trees, he finds himself outside the church where he discovers a coven of witches dancing. Fascinated, Tam stops to watch, but suddenly one of them spots him, and he and Meg must run for their lives.

Schools are provided with high quality, online teaching resources in advance, including a teachers’ support pack, to help introduce the songs from The Tale o’ Tam o’ Shanter to pupils. A team of Scottish Opera performers and arts education specialists then spend a day rehearsing and preparing the pupils for a 30-minute, choreographed, fully-costumed performance for family and friends, helping teachers deliver aspects of A Curriculum for Excellence.

Forming part of a suite of Scottish Opera’s digital offerings for schools, which includes The Curse of MacCabbra Opera House, How The Dragon Was Made, and Vikings! The Quest for the Dragon’s Treasure, The Tale o’ Tam o’ Shanter has been re-imagined and expanded to make it even more accessible and adaptable for all schools in Scotland to take part.

Schools can now engage with the production as a digital only learning and teaching experience, using online resources currently available on Scottish Opera’s website, to prepare the children for all aspects of presenting a performance to an audience.

This online delivery method — which includes Scottish Opera singers appearing on screen in classrooms to sing alongside the class — makes the project even easier and more affordable for teachers to engage with, particularly in those schools without specialist music teachers at primary level.

With 50-plus years of experience in classrooms, Scottish Opera’s Outreach and Education Programme has developed this approach because it recognised that the in-person learning Primary Schools Tour experience reaches capacity very quickly each year, so a complementary strand of the programme has been created in the form of a set of exclusivelyonline resources — so many more schools across Scotland can participate — and at a much lower cost per pupil.

Scottish Opera’s Director of Outreach and Education, Jane Davidson said: ‘Our children’s operas make learning both enjoyable and challenging, giving pupils the opportunity to engage their creative and expressive capacities.

“Originally commissioned in 2002, this vibrant interpretation of Burns’ iconic poem enables a new generation to explore the culture, identity and language that remain key to the enduring appeal of Scotland’s most famous poet.

“With the aim of making Tam accessible to many more schools, the project is now available in two formats, and both involve downloading digital resources which prepare them for performance.’

The Tale o’ Tam o’ Shanter is kindly supported by The Jean Armour Burns Trust, The David and June Gordon Memorial Trust, The Harbinson Charitable Trust, The W M Mann Foundation and Scottish Opera’s Education Angels.

For more information visit www.scottishopera.org.uk/join-in/opera-for-schools/the-tale-o-tam-o-shanter/

Duke of Edinburgh visits India

His Royal Highness The Duke of Edinburgh arrives in India today [2nd February] on a three-day visit, with a focus on championing young people and promoting the benefits of non-formal education across the world.

His Royal Highness will travel to Mumbai and Delhi to promote The Duke of Edinburgh’s International Award, delivered as The International Award for Young People (IAYP) in India: a non-formal education and learning framework supporting young people to find their purpose, place and passion in the world. Since its inception in India in 1962, the Award has helped more than 150,000 students from 325 schools and educational institutions across the country.

In addition to meeting with members of the government, Prince Edward is scheduled to undertake varied engagements spanning the breadth of the living bridge that connects the UK and India. This includes discussions with Indian education and business leaders and philanthropists, and joining events that celebrate our shared love for sport and the arts.  

Lindy Cameron, British High Commissioner to India, said: “I am delighted to welcome His Royal Highness The Duke of Edinburgh to India. The visit is an important reminder of the vibrant and enduring links between our countries, including through a 1.7 million-strong Indian diaspora in the UK.

“The UK-India partnership is helping drive solutions to some of the world’s most pressing issues. By investing in our youth today and ensuring they have all the opportunities to succeed, we can continue to build on the shared vision of a better tomorrow.”

Kapil Bhalla, National Director, The International Award for Young People, India said: “We are deeply honoured to welcome His Royal Highness The Duke of Edinburgh to India as part of his continued commitment to inspiring young people worldwide.

“His visit reaffirms the transformative impact of The International Award for Young People in empowering the youth of India to realise their full potential. His Royal Highness’ presence is a testament to the enduring legacy of this programme and its ability to connect communities across the globe.”

At the conclusion of the visit to India, The Duke will travel on to join The Duchess of Edinburgh in visiting Nepal.

Ronaq serving up tapas treats for lunch

Ronaq, one of Edinburgh’s most popular Indian restaurants, is spicing things up with the launch of a lunchtime tapas menu.

Available from this weekend (Saturday, 1 February), the new menu at the Comely Bank BYOB will feature four sections – starter, mains, accompaniments and afters. 

The usual traditional classics such as pakora, chicken biryani, lamb jalfrazi and vegetable korma will all be featured alongside an array of other mouth-watering meals, while fans of fish curry won’t be disappointed by the Machli Balti, haddock cooked with green peppers, coriander, cumin, cardamoms, pimento and cinnamon.

Diners can choose one dish from each section for £9.95.

There is also a children’s menu offering chicken tikka, chicken curry, chicken korma and fish fingers from £6.95. 

The tapas will be served from 12-2pm Monday-Friday, and from 2pm-5pm on Saturdays and Sundays.

“We’re excited to introduce this new lunchtime offering for our customers,” said owner Mohammed Shoaib.

“Tapas are a fun way to enjoy a number of different dishes and there is something for everybody on the menu. It’s an ideal way to taste a variety of the flavours which we are renowned for.

“They can also be served quite quickly, ideal for people who may be on their lunch break from work and a little short of time.”

Gordon Macdonald MSP raises serious concerns over Bank of Scotland closure in Wester Hailes

Gordon Macdonald SNP MSP has raised serious concerns regarding the upcoming closure of the Bank of Scotland branch in Wester Hailes, warning of the impact of this decision on members of the community who rely on these services.

Lloyds Banking Group have announced that they are closing their Wester Hailes branch on 27 May 2025. This branch provides a crucial service to local residents and its closure risks harming those in the local community who rely on face-to-face banking services.  

Gordon Macdonald MSP is therefore seeking a meeting with Lloyds Banking Group to discuss the potential impacts of their decision and to obtain further details regarding support for those most affected.

Commenting, Gordon Macdonald said: “This news will be very worrying for those who rely on the Bank of Scotland branch services at the Westside Plaza Shopping Centre in Wester Hailes.

“I am deeply concerned about the potential impact of this closure on members of the community who rely on these services particularly with the Post Office Branch in Wester Hailes also under review which would leave local customers with no means of face to face banking services.

“I am urgently seeking a meeting with the Bank of Scotland to understand the impact of this decision on my constituents, and my office is on hand to support constituents if needed.”

The locations affected:

·       Alexandria (Banking Hub and Enhanced Deposit service to be introduced)

·       Annan (Banking Hub to be introduced)

·       Barrhead

·       Bishopbriggs (Banking Hub to be introduced)

·       Edinburgh Corstorphine West (Enhanced Deposit service to be introduced)

·       Edinburgh Wester Hailes

·       Helensburgh (Banking Hub to be introduced)

·       Kirkintilloch (Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Moffat (Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Peebles (Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Pitlochry (Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Sanquhar (Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Thornhill (Enhanced Deposit service and Community Banker service to be introduced)

·       Uddingston

Child Poverty Act focused minds, but greater collaboration needed, finds Holyrood Committee

A law passed by the Scottish Parliament in 2017, has focused minds on work to reduce child poverty, but more collaboration is needed for the Scottish Government to continue to make progress, according to a report from Holyrood’s Social Justice and Social Security Committee.

The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act was passed by the Parliament in 2017 and aimed to tackle, report on and measure child poverty. It also established targets relating to the eradication of child poverty by 2030. The Scottish Government will publish statistics that will outline whether it has met its interim targets in March.

The Committee wanted to understand the impact of the Act, and in particular the difference that has been made by having a framework for reducing child poverty set in law.

In its report on post-legislative scrutiny of the Act, the Committee has found that, while the Act has instilled an appetite and motivation to tackle child poverty, something most clearly demonstrated in the establishment of the Scottish Child Payment, it has not led to sustained progress towards reaching the Scottish Government’s 2030 targets.

The report outlines a series of recommendations that could help the Government make further progress, including encouraging a culture of collaborative working across portfolios and engaging with local authorities to understand whether they can reach the targets and what further resources they might need.

The Committee also calls on the Government to share details on how its own research into child poverty in rural areas and in the islands has impacted on the Scottish Government’s approach.

Collette Stevenson MSP, Convener of the Social Justice and Social Security Committee, said: “Our scrutiny has shown that the Child Poverty Act has helped ensure the Scottish Government keeps its aim of eradicating child poverty focused in people’s minds.

“However, it looks as though more progress can be made towards achieving the targets that were set out in the act, so we are calling for change on a bigger scale to happen.

“We’re keen to hear more from the Scottish Government about how it intends to do this so that it can meet its targets and make a real difference to the daily life of children and families in Scotland.”

Holyrood-child-poverty-reportDownload

Persevere: Leith Theatre celebrates major milestone in securing the future of the valuable community and cultural asset

Leith Theatre Perseveres on 20 Year Journey to Save Building

Leith Theatre Trust is proud to announce a significant milestone, the securing of a 50-year lease for the much-loved Leith Theatre. This achievement, the culmination of a 20-year campaign, cements the future of the iconic venue, allowing a stable foundation for future ambitions.

For the first time since 2004, and with the security of a long-term lease, the Trust is able to confidently plan for long-term development, and crucially, seek the investment required to transform the venue into a sustainable and vibrant cultural space.

The significant long term lease agreement marks a turning point for Leith Theatre, delivered 17 months after the Trust received committee approval at City of Edinburgh Council’s Finance and Resource Committee in September 2023. This has been achieved after working closely with council officers and legal teams, in parallel with investigative works to conduct due diligence in relation to building health.

This achievement is a testament to the commitment of Leith Theatre staff, board and key personnel from the City of Edinburgh Council who have persevered and worked hard to protect and preserve this vital community asset.

Originally saved from the risk of private redevelopment by a group of local campaigners, Leith Theatre has often been overlooked in its lifetime but has nevertheless stood the test of time.

This positive step forward for the whole complex is vital to its protection on its journey to becoming a beacon of regeneration and heritage preservation, allowing it to fulfil its ambitions and take its place at the heart of Leith life as an innovative cultural and community venue.

Lynn Morrison, Chief Executive of Leith Theatre, said: “I feel so proud to play a part in safeguarding such a unique and incredible heritage asset, so many of which are now commonly under threat.

“Saving this particular building has been a strong local response to that threat. The lease now gives us the stability to develop and steer this project towards refurbishment and sustainability as a key piece of cultural infrastructure in the city.

“I believe this space can be transformational for Leith and I am excited to plan for its long-term future.”

Bob Last, Chair of Leith Theatre, said: “When I took on the role of Chair at Leith Theatre, my primary goal was to ensure that we negotiated a new long-term lease for this asset gifted to the people of Leith in the 1930s. After many months of work alongside a tenacious team, I am pleased to deliver the vital security this lease brings.

“In celebrating this moment not only are we standing on the shoulders of the original architects whose vision I have ever greater respect for, but also all the skilled labour that went in to every detail of its construction, everyone who has enjoyed events at the theatre for more than 90 years giving the building meaning and, crucially, previous members of the Trust and all those who have spoken out about the building over the years.

“Leith Theatre will now be an important part of Leith and Edinburgh’s future cultural and community landscape.

“I look forward to continuing to work with Leith Theatre as we seek to unlock further capital investment and bring more and more vibrant life back to this iconic space.”

Val Walker, culture convener at the city council, said: “A 50-year lease is a remarkable milestone, and I’m very excited to see the venue thrive as a lasting music, cultural and community asset.

“This is the beginning of the next chapter. With the continued interest and enthusiastic support for the venue I very much look forward to seeing what the future holds.”

David Orr, Commercial Real Estate Partner at Aberdein Considine, who negotiated the lease on behalf of Leith Theatre Trust, said: “It is immensely rewarding to have played a part in this extremely exciting new chapter for the iconic Leith Theatre, which will both preserve this significant piece of the historic built environment and revive this unique venue for the cultural and creative industries.

“We are proud to have worked alongside the Trust and partners to bring this lease deal to fruition and we look forward to supporting the continued success of Leith Theatre Trust in the years and decades to come.”

Pavement parking ban in Edinburgh hailed a success one year on

5153 PENALTY NOTICES ISSUED FOR PARKING ON PAVEMENT

The benefits of the pavement parking ban have been praised by Guide Dogs Scotland and Living Streets Edinburgh.

The Council previously worked with these organisations to lobby for the introduction of controls in Scotland.

Earlier this week (January 29) marked a full year since enforcement began against parking on pavements, at dropped kerb crossing points and double parking.

The council introduced these rules to make our streets safer for pedestrians and road users. Pavement parking particularly impacts people who use wheelchairs and mobility, those who are blind or partially sighted and people pushing prams or buggies. This practise also damages pavements, which are expensive to repair and become a trip hazard for everyone.

Parking attendants have the powers to issue Penalty Charge Notices (PCN) to vehicles parked on pavements, some verges, at crossing points or double parked. A parking ticket will be issued at the national level of £100 but reduced to £50 if paid within the first 14 days. This follows a similar process to existing parking tickets issued in Edinburgh.

You can find out more about these rules and report incorrectly parked vehicles on the city council’s website.

Up to 26 January 2025 there had been 5,153 PCNs issued for footway parking, 1,612 for dropped kerb parking and 1,629 for double parking.

Since enforcement began there has been an overall decreasing trend in PCN fines being issued for pavement parking – with the exception of the busier summer months.

Transport and Environment Convener, Councillor Stephen Jenkinson said: “Since we first introduced these changes one year ago, we’ve seen many residents and visitors modify their parking habits accordingly, with the problem of pavement parking disappearing in many streets across our city. The overall gradual decrease in PCN fines for pavement parking also shows we’re headed in the right direction, ultimately we want to see zero fines.  

“Every driver is responsible for parking their vehicle considerately, and where this would not cause an obstruction to the pavement or road. We brought the pavement parking ban in to provide a safe and accessible environment for everyone, especially those with sight impairments, mobility issues or pushing buggies.

“We’ve also heard from many people who really appreciate clearer, wider pavements and who no longer need to walk on the road as a result of the ban.

“I’m proud that we took this decision to make our streets as safe and accessible as possible – and that local authorities across Scotland are now looking to Edinburgh’s lead and implementing schemes of their own.”

Transport and Local Access Forum Convener, Councillor Kayleigh O’Neill said: “The pavement parking ban has been so well received in Edinburgh, and I am so grateful to everyone who has played a part in making that happen.

“Strong awareness, resident co-operation and Council enforcement has meant that disabled people, elderly people, those with buggies and prams, all have an easier time getting around.

“So many streets that have been blighted in the past are now free and accessible for people who move around the city like me who uses a power wheelchair.

“Pavements are for people and the enforcement of this ban reinforces that. It is great to also see that Glasgow has followed us and are beginning enforcement on their city streets from January 29.”

Policy and Campaigns Manager at Guide Dogs Scotland, Mike Moore said: “One year on from the enforcement of pavement parking restrictions in Edinburgh, people with sight loss say it has made a real difference.

“By keeping pavements clear, the new rules have helped to ensure that people in the capital can get out and about safely, without the fear of being forced on to the road by inconsiderate parking.

“We welcome the start of enforcement in Glasgow this week, which marks an important step towards a consistent approach across Scotland. With both of Scotland’s largest cities now taking action, we hope to see continued progress by local authorities to make our streets safer and more accessible for all pedestrians.”

Living Streets Edinburgh Group Convener, David Hunter said: “The City of Edinburgh Council deserves credit not only for being the first in Scotland to apply the national ban on pavement parking, but also for adopting a “no streets exempt” policy.

“This been the most significant change to make Edinburgh a safer and more attractive city for pedestrians since the introduction of widespread 20mph speed limits.”

Cats Protection welcomes call for compulsory microchipping in Scotland

Cats Protection welcomes the Scottish Animal Welfare Commission (SAWC)’s recently published report on responsible ownership and care of domestic cats in Scotland, supporting its microchipping recommendations to improve cat welfare across Scotland.

Advocacy Officer for Cats Protection, Alice Palombo, said: “We are delighted that SAWC has recommended the introduction of legislation for compulsory microchipping and the registration of owned cats in Scotland.

“This would be a vital step in ensuring the safety and wellbeing of pet cats, one that Cats Protection has long campaigned for.

“Animal welfare charities take in thousands of unchipped cats every year, and Scotland has the second lowest microchipping rates in the UK at 72%. This legislation will help reunite lost cats with their owners, reduce the number of unowned and stray cats, while also reducing the burden on our teams.

“Trying to find the owners of unchipped cats often takes up valuable space in our pens – space that could otherwise be used for cats in urgent need.”

The charity further supports the development of a centralised database to simplify the registration process, giving an efficient way for pet owners, veterinary professionals, and animal welfare organisations to search for cats when needed.

In addition to legislative measures, SAWC has recommended that Scottish Ministers implement a public education programme to encourage voluntary microchipping and registration ahead of legal requirements.

Alice continues: “The combination of compulsory microchipping and a centralised registration system will be a game-changer for cat welfare in Scotland.

“A public education initiative will be crucial in raising awareness among cat owners and the wider public about the importance of responsible pet ownership.

“We hope Scottish Ministers do take action by implementing these proposals as soon as possible, which we believe are essential for improving cat welfare.”