Tag: Scottish Government

Budget 2023-24: Scottish finances on a tightrope but choices are there to be made, says Fraser of Allander Institute

The outlook for Scotland’s budget in 2023-24 has undoubtedly been made more challenging due to factors wholly outwith the control of the Scottish Government, but there are decisions that Deputy First Minister John Swinney can make to ease the path ahead for Scotland, according to a report published yesterday by the Fraser of Allander Institute.

In its-pre Budget report, the University of Strathclyde-based Institute says that in the face of high inflation, the UK Government’s Autumn Statement provided some comfort with additional transfers that will more or less offset the impacts of inflation over the next two years.

The Scottish Government now needs to set out how it will use its significant devolved tax powers and whether to use them to generate more revenue for public services, including public sector workers.

The Resource Spending Review, published in May this year, provided a blueprint for spend over this parliament, but we have already seen deviations from planned spend in this financial year, and changing priorities may see further revisions when the draft Budget is set out on the 15 December.

The Fraser of Allander Institute’s annual pre-budget report, published today (12 December) examines the context to the budget and the key decisions facing the Scottish government in 2023-24.

Its findings include:

  • the economic situation has deteriorated markedly since the 2022-23 budget was presented, with high inflation set to eat away at living standards over the next two years.
  • the high inflation environment eroded the value of the Scottish Government’s budget in 2022-23 meaning that the present financial year’s budget is worth about £1bn less in real terms
  • Despite fears of cuts to the near-term budget, the announcements made by the UK Chancellor more or less offset the impacts of inflation on the Scottish budget in 2023-24 and 2024-25
  • the Scottish Government has significant devolved tax powers and therefore has decisions to make on Thursday about whether or not to use them to generate more revenue for public services.

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Institute, said: “John Swinney is getting set to present his first budget in seven years, in what he has acknowledged is an unprecedentedly tricky time for the Scottish public finances.

“The challenges he has been dealing with for 2022-23 ease a bit for 2023-24: there was some additional money announced at the Autumn Statement which generated around a £1bn of consequentials, offsetting the inflationary pressures on the budget.

“But there are also flexibilities that the Deputy First Minister has for the next financial year that were not available to him for this year – the Scottish Government does have tax powers that could be used, if he wishes, to raise more revenue.”

Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, said: “In amongst all the headline-grabbing decisions, it will be important to take a step back to see how this Budget helps Scotland achieve its long term ambitions.

“We are expecting that the government will set out, clearly and transparently, the choices it has made and what the impact, both good and bad, will be for policy outcomes and the impacts on different groups.”

Access the full report here.

Education: Record narrowing of the attainment gap

Primary school literacy and numeracy improvement reaches new high

The poverty-related attainment gaps in literacy and numeracy levels across primary schools have seen the biggest decreases since records began, official statistics show.

The gap between the proportion of primary pupils from the most and least-deprived areas achieving expected levels has narrowed by 3.4 percentage points in literacy and 3.7 percentage points in numeracy, according to the Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL) 2021/22. This marks the largest narrowing of the gap in a year since consistent records began in 2016/17.

There has also been a record increase in the proportion of primary school pupils achieving the expected levels of literacy (up 3.7 percentage points to 70.5%) and numeracy (up 3.3 percentage points to 77.9%).

Education Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said: “These figures demonstrate a real recovery from the pandemic and underline our progress towards tackling the poverty-related attainment gap, and achieving excellence for all of Scotland’s children and young people.

“This record improvement over one year for primary pupils achieving the expected levels in numeracy and literacy also shows more young people are getting the support they need to reach their full potential.

“However, there is no room for complacency. I recognise that attainment levels are still largely below pre-pandemic levels and the publication of local stretch aims by local councils last week sets out clear plans to significantly narrow the poverty-related attainment gap in the years ahead.

“We know that the impact of the pandemic – compounded by the current cost of living crisis – means children and young people need our support now more than ever. We are determined to do all we can to ensure they can reach their full potential, including a record investment of £1billion over this parliamentary term in the Scottish Attainment Challenge.”

The Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL) 2021/22 statistics  include data at Scotland level and for each local authority.

The Future is in our hands: First Minister’s Christmas card

Design calls for action on climate change

Artwork from a Glasgow primary school pupil has been unveiled as the First Minister’s 2022 Christmas card.

Children at Sunnyside Primary School in Craigend were tasked with creating a festive design that centres around the school’s campaigning for climate action.

The winning design was created by P5 pupil Evita Ye, aged nine, and features a colourful snow globe with the words ‘The future is in our hands’.

Sunnyside has created and run many successful climate campaigns and recently started the Running Out of Time relay. The First Minister welcomed the baton to COP27 in Egypt, after it made its way through 18 countries on a 4,800 mile journey.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “I’d like to congratulate Evita and all the pupils at Sunnyside for their striking and creative designs.

“Climate change is already having a massive impact around the world and if we don’t take the right action, things will only get worse.

“I’ve been hugely impressed to hear about the actions pupils at Sunnyside have been taking, and I want to thank each and every one of them for getting involved – with such enthusiasm – in the most important issue facing our world.

“The school was a natural choice to design my card and I’m pleased to be able to help spread their calls for unified action on climate change.”

Supporting low-income workers

Self-Isolation Support Grant scheme pays out £73 million over pandemic and will end next year

Low income workers who lost earnings when they self-isolated after contracting Coronavirus (COVID-19) have received awards totalling almost £73 million.

The temporary Self-Isolation Support Grant is the longest running scheme of its kind in the UK. It helps those earning less than the Real Living Wage, around £1,771.25 per month, if they cannot go to work following their positive PCR test or someone they care for has a positive PCR test.

From October 2020 until October 2022 the scheme made more than 150,000 awards but will close to new applicants on 5 January 2023 as most people now no longer need to take a COVID-19 test. To prevent the spread of infection, people should try to stay at home if they feel unwell.

Alternative financial support will continue to be available, depending on individual circumstances, through Crisis Grants through the Scottish Welfare Fund, alteration to Universal Credit rates and Statutory Sick Pay for absences lasting longer than three days.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney said: “The Self-Isolation Support Grant has provided vital help for those who would find it impossible due to their financial circumstances to follow the health guidance to stay at home if unwell.

“This emergency pandemic measure was introduced to support the important role of self-isolation in controlling transmission.

“The stay at home guidance has, since its launch, changed to reflect the prevalence of the virus and actions taken to combat it. We will continue to consider further measures to support those in high risk categories.

“Our COVID-19 vaccination programme has been hugely successful and has enabled us to ensure a safer and sustainable return to normality.”

Self-Isolation Support Grant (£250) – mygov.scot

Thursday’s Scottish Budget set to prioritise three key areas

Helping families and services through the cost of living crisis

Eradicating child poverty, transforming the economy to deliver net zero and creating sustainable public services will be the key aims of the Scottish Budget 2023-24.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney warned relentless prioritisation was needed to tackle the combined impact of high inflation, the ongoing economic consequences of Brexit and the UK Government’s plans to reduce expenditure in future years, which are projected to reduce the Scottish Government’s funding under the Barnett formula from 2025.

He said the Budget would channel support to where it was most needed while beginning a process of reform to help public services face the future with strength and resilience.

Mr Swinney said: “Families, businesses and our public finances are under sustained economic pressure and the Scottish Government has acted decisively to provide what support it can within its limited resources.

“We have allocated £3 billion in 2022-23 to mitigate the impact of the cost of living crisis, including targeted help such as increasing the game changing Scottish Child Payment to £25 per eligible child per week – a 150% increase within eight months. 

“However, given the fiscal constraints of devolution, it is not possible to go as far as we would like and so the Budget will prioritise three areas – eradicating child poverty, transforming the economy to deliver net zero and creating sustainable public services.

“Difficult decisions are required and resources will be targeted where they are most needed and can secure maximum value from every pound spent.

“The economic challenges we face also require a fundamental change in the way we manage public spending. The Bank of England is predicting the longest recession for a century so this Budget will set in motion reforms that will place our finances and public services on a more sustainable and resilient footing for the future.

“This is a time for firm leadership and bold decision making. Steps we take now will help ensure Scotland emerges from the current crisis a stronger, fairer, greener country.”

The Scottish Budget 2023-24 will be presented to the Scottish Parliament on Thursday, 15 December.

COSLA launched its campaign last week in advance of the Scottish Budget on 15 December – an ‘SOS call’ to Save our Services.

It is a rallying call, telling communities everything they need to know about the impact of the Scottish Government’s forthcoming budget on our council services, and our communities in the coming year.

COSLA says the SOS call reflects the extremely precarious financial situation in which Councils in Scotland find themselves, during a particularly challenging period. This is as a consequence of real-term cuts to the core budgets of Scotland’s 32 Councils over recent years.

The call comes ahead of the Deputy First Minister outlining the Scottish Budget on December 15th but reflects the reality of what the government set out in its spending plans last May.

COSLA’s President Councillor Shona Morrison said: “There are many areas in which Local and Scottish Government work together for our communities and I fully appreciate that money is extremely tight – all Governments are having to cope with  rising inflation and fuel costs  

“However, with little room left to manoeuver, the Scottish Government’s spending plans as they stand will see Council services either significantly reduced, cut or stopped altogether.  70% of Local Government’s budget is spent on staffing, so it is inevitable that current spending plans will lead to job losses. The very serious impact of this scenario is that the critical work council staff do on prevention and early intervention will reduce significantly.

COSLA’s Vice President Councillor Steven Heddle said: “In May, the ‘flat cash’ plans looked difficult for us. Today, with prices increasing across the board, including energy costs, and inflation sitting at almost 10% and at risk of rising still further, Local Government is now on extremely dangerous ground.

“Make no mistake, what we will now face is Councils struggling to deliver even the basic, essential services that communities rely on. To put this into perspective, the estimated £1bn gap for councils in 23/24 is the equivalent of the entire budget for early learning and childcare across Scotland or 17,500 teachers. A funding gap of this magnitude will have an impact on all our communities, with the most vulnerable who rely on these services suffering the worst consequences.”

COSLA’s Resources Spokesperson Councillor Katie Hagmann concluded: “We are at a crisis point like never before – the impact for communities is serious and needs to be reconsidered.

“The financial impacts for other parts of the public sector are also serious. When councils can’t focus spend on prevention, for example on preventing ill-health, services like the NHS will end up spending significantly more money when issues become more serious.

“Directors of Finance across Scotland’s Councils are sufficiently concerned about the financial sustainability of councils that they have written to the Deputy First Minister outlining their concerns.

“This really is an SOS call from Scotland’s Councils –people in communities across Scotland will be pulled into further poverty and uncertainty without adequate funding for the vital services that support them”.

COSLA-Budget-SOS-Dec-22Download

You can find out more by downloading our Budget SOS Factsheet here.

The Scottish Budget 2023-24 will be presented to the Scottish Parliament on Thursday, 15 December.

Scottish Government’s ‘National Mission’ to close attainment gap

Scotland’s councils set out ambitions to help young people succeed

Local authorities have published their plans for closing the poverty-related attainment gap.

Councils across Scotland have set their own “stretch aims” for children and young peoples’ progress in literacy and numeracy levels, for senior phase qualifications achieved, as well as for the number of young people participating in education, training, or employment.

For both overall attainment and in terms of closing the poverty-related attainment gap in literacy and numeracy, the collective stretch aims of local authorities demonstrate ambitions to work towards achieving the biggest two-year improvement recorded since the introduction of the Scottish Attainment Challenge.

This work will be supported by the Scottish Government’s £1 billion Scottish Attainment Challenge, with £43 million in Strategic Equity Funding allocated to local authorities this year. In total more than £130 million has been distributed to schools so far this year to help close the poverty-related attainment gap.

Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills Shirley-Anne Somerville said: “We are committed to substantially eliminating the poverty-related attainment gap and councils have a crucial role in driving this national mission forward at a local level.

“Given the effect of COVID-19 on children and young peoples’ achievement of Curriculum for Excellence levels in 2020/21, these collective aims represent significant local ambition for recovery back to and beyond the national position pre-pandemic, aiming to narrow the poverty related attainment gap by over seven percentage points in both primary school literacy and numeracy compared to 2020/21.

“These will drive an enhanced focus on outcomes for children and young people, ensuring they have the opportunities and support they need to reach their full potential.”

Victim Surcharge Fund opened

More help for victims as criminals pay towards costs

The third application round of the Victim Surcharge Fund has now opened for bids from organisations that support victims of crime.

Anyone who commits a crime that results in a court fine is charged an additional penalty – the victim surcharge. The accumulated Victim Surcharge Fund provides direct, practical help to victims, for example meeting household repair costs that have arisen due to crime, or providing food, utility or clothing expenses for people escaping domestic abuse.

A total of £413,727 has been awarded to organisations, including Victim Support Scotland, trauma and loss centre the Manda Centre and Scottish women’s aid groups, since the Scottish Government launched the Victim Surcharge Fund in 2019.

Justice Secretary Keith Brown said: “We are committed to putting victims’ rights and needs at the centre of the criminal justice system and it is absolutely right that criminals should pay towards helping victims of crime as they recover from their experience.

“The Victim Surcharge Fund builds on the Scottish Government’s wider support for victims. Over the past five years we have invested £93m through our justice budget alone, demonstrating our commitment to putting victims first.

“I encourage victim support organisations to apply to the Fund so that victims can continue to access the support and help that they need.”

Chief Executive of Victim Support Scotland Kate Wallace said: “The cost-of-living crisis has meant that more people affected by crime are struggling to make ends meet. 

“This additional funding from the Victim Surcharge Fund allows VSS to cover the cost of essential items such as food vouchers, property repairs, alarms and funeral costs, thereby meeting the needs of vulnerable victims in the aftermath of crime.

“Since 2020, VSS Emergency Assistance Fund has provided £495,000 worth of goods to more than 1,000 people and their families, thanks to funding from the Victim Surcharge Fund. We accept applications directly from people affected by crime and have received referrals from over 200 support organisations.

“For many of the people we support, this financial assistance is simply life changing. We welcome the news that the fund has reopened, which helps empower people to move on after a crime.”

Victims’ organisations interested in applying to the Fund can request an application form by emailing VictimSurchargefund@gov.scot and should apply by the 9 January 2023 deadline.

Homeless Project Scotland to hold peaceful protest this morning

“It is said that the mark of a civilised society is how we treat our most vulnerable citizens; what does this say about our society?“

Homeless Project Scotland are holding a peaceful protest outside the Glasgow City Chambers in George Square this morning at 10:00 am.  

A spokesperson for the campaign group explained: “The aim of the peaceful protest is simply to demonstrate to elected members that Homeless Project Scotland’s call for a building will not be ignored. Our soup kitchens are now becoming a service operating 7 days per week and are attracting over 200 members on average. 

“We have asked Council Leader Susan Aitken and Scotland’s First Minister to bring our most vulnerable and those experiencing homelessness in doors to have warmth, care, compassion and nourishment that is essential to us all to survive. The time for talking is over. It is now the time to cut the keys. 

“We are hearing time after time from people on social media outlets that we are bringing people into the city centre, in actual fact it is the council.

“Since 2020 the council has had 4 Glasgow Hotels all located walking distance from our current unit under the Central Station Bridge and indeed, the removal of dinner from these accommodations is, among the cost of living and the COVID-19 pandemic, to a sharp incline. Poverty is now becoming the fastest spreading epidemic and we need action now. 

“Our peaceful assembly is welcome for everyone to come and partake in and is potentially going to the circuit Scotland’s Streets.

“Homelessness is not invisible, these are people, it is ridiculous that in this day and age that people are pushed to choose heat or eat. There is a tenfold increase in the number of service users we are seeing and a tenfold increase in the number of street outreach clients. 

“It is said that the mark of a civilised society is how we treat our most vulnerable citizens; what does this say about our society? “

There will be refreshments and a good old fashioned Scots Broth Soup for those in attendance.

Two years of Covid-19 vaccines

More than 14.9 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccination have been administered in Scotland since the first jab was given exactly two years ago.

The initial effort to protect people from the deadly virus was the biggest logistical operation Scotland had seen since the Second World War. 

Thousands of volunteers signed up to help NHS staff, mass vaccination centres were rapidly assembled in major cities and mobile units toured the country.

This rapid deployment meant a million Scots were jabbed within three months – averting 27,656 deaths, according to the World Health Organisation, which noted Scotland’s quick uptake.

Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “On this day we must first remember all those who have lost a loved one to this virus and reflect on what has been an incredibly challenging time for everyone. 

“As a nation we can be incredibly proud of our world-leading vaccination programme. 

“This could not have happened without the incredible efforts of staff and volunteers across the country. Unfortunately, COVID-19 has not gone away, and I continue to urge everyone to take up the offer of a vaccination when they become eligible. Vaccination reduces the risk of serious illness from the virus.

“Appointments can be booked online at NHS Inform and a number of drop-in clinics are now in operation – details of these are available on local NHS board websites and social media posts.

David Speirs volunteered to help the vaccination effort in March 2021 and is still involved in the national programme. He said: “I applied for the vaccinator training programme when I saw the advert in March 2021.

“I wanted to do something to give back. When I passed the training in May 2021, I felt accomplished and really proud of what we all had achieved being part of the first group. It’s been brilliant to be part of an incredible process to protect people. I maybe the person holding the needle, but behind me there are thousands of others getting us all to this point.”

54 year old Chris Mackinnon is due to receive his winter booster today. He said: “I want to do all I can to stay safe for myself, friends, and family this Christmas. I have been fortunate in that I have not had COVID-19 and I want it to stay that way.”

33 year old Francesca McDonald is also due to be vaccinated today and said: “As someone who is immune-compromised, I’ve been pretty timely at keeping up to date with my vaccinations throughout.

“I have just had a baby so I am delighted be getting this additional protection against COVID-19 so I can enjoy Christmas with my new arrival without worrying about the virus.”

Winter vaccines | NHS inform

Scottish children’s service providers urge budget for mental health

One third of children not being seen within waiting time target

The Scottish Children’s Services Coalition (SCSC), an alliance of leading providers of specialist children’s services, has called on the Scottish Government to deliver a budget for mental health as new waiting time figures out yesterday (6th December) highlight that a third of children and young people are not being seen within its waiting time target.

Figures published by Public Health Scotland indicate that over the quarter covering July to September 2022, a third (32.1 per cent) of children and young people had been waiting more than 18 weeks from referral before starting treatment at child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS).1

The Scottish Government target is that 90 per cent of children and young people should start treatment within 18 weeks of referral to CAMHS.

A total of 4,990 children and young people started treatment at CAMHS in the quarter ending September 2022, an increase of 30.2 per cent from 3,833 starting treatment in the quarter ending September 2021.

The figures however come on the back of a planned £38 million cut to planned mental health spending by the Scottish Government in its forthcoming budget, to be revealed on 15th December.

This cut in spending is despite a mental health emergency, which is set to worsen given the cost-of-living crisis and services already at breaking point.

The SCSC has called on the Scottish Government to reverse its decision and prioritise mental health spending, avoiding a potential lost generation of children and young people with mental health problems, such as anxiety, depression and self-harm.

Even before the pandemic, cases of poor mental health in children and young people were at unprecedented levels, with services struggling to keep pace with growing demand, leaving an increasing number of vulnerable individuals unable to access support. The Covid-19 pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis have further exacerbated this situation.

The SCSC also noted that without increased spending it is unlikely the Scottish Government will be able to achieve its target, as outlined in the NHS Recovery Plan, to clear waiting lists by March 2023 and ensure that at least 90 per cent of children and young people referred to CAMHS start treatment within 18 weeks.

A spokesperson for the SCSC commented: “The latest figures highlighting that a third of children and young people are not being seen within the Scottish Government’s 18-week waiting time target is extremely alarming.

“Since the pandemic, demand on services has increased and the cost-of-living crisis is only going to make matters worse, creating a potential lost generation of vulnerable children and young people.

“We are facing a mental health emergency and many of our children and young people are at breaking point, with stress and anxiety reaching alarming levels because of the effect of the cost-of-living crisis.

“However, this concerningly comes against a background of a proposed cut to mental health budgets, meaning that some of our children and young people simply won’t get the help they desperately need, with potentially catastrophic consequences.

“We would urge the Scottish Government to reconsider its proposed cuts to the mental health budget and make this a budget for mental health.”

1 Public Health Scotland, Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services: Waiting Times in Scotland, Quarter Ending September 2022, 6th December 2022.

Available at: https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/child-and-adolescent-mental-health-services-camhs-waiting-times/child-and-adolescent-mental-health-services-camhs-waiting-times-quarter-ending-september-2022/  (accessed 6th December 2022).