Pubs and bars ‘on the brink’, says trade organisation

Scotland’s pubs and bars face unprecedented challenges with fears up to 12.5k jobs could be lost

The Scottish Licensed Trade Association has released a snapshot survey of the challenges facing Scotland’s pubs and bars, sponsored by KPMG UK.   The survey contains key insights into the significant impacts of the COVID crisis on Scotland’s pubs and bars.

The survey which represents over 10% of Scotland’s On-trade premises, highlights that 45% of business owners do not expect a return to any sort of normal trading until a vaccine is found.   

The survey also revealed that up to 25% of the 50,000 jobs in the sector could be lost and coupled with the introduction of reduced opening hours for many businesses and a subsequent reduction in working hours for staff, all jobs in the sector are effectively under threat. 

Colin Wilkinson, Managing Director of the SLTA, said: “Our snapshot survey covers all types of licensed premises and is an indicator of the key issues facing the wide range of small to large businesses which trade within the wider hospitality sector.

“Our survey is based upon quantitative research from over 600 outlets covering the length and breadth of the country and is supported by major food and drink chains, independent pubs, bars and hotels in Scotland’s hospitality sector.

“The impact of COVID has been more severe for Scotland’s pubs and bars than virtually any other sector, and we now face the stark reality that up to 12,500 jobs could be lost as nearly 90% of premises report that their revenue is down versus last year, with 38% reporting revenue decreases of over 50%.  

“Our own survey reinforces a recent survey by the University of Edinburgh on behalf of the tourism industry, which shows the devastating impact on employment in pubs, bars and the wider hospitality sector.

He went on: “Our sector has worked very hard to prepare for reopening and to ensure customers enjoy a safe environment. The average pub or bar spent £2,500 on training and social distancing measures, and this equates to a £15m investment across the entire sector.

“Also, many pubs and bars have adapted by making increased use of digital technology and offering restaurant quality food and cocktails for home delivery.  However, with many people working from home, and local restrictions, one of Scotland’s major employment sectors faces unparalleled difficulties and the current business climate is leading to a real threat of permanent business closures and job losses.’’

The sector welcomed the support from both the UK and Scottish Governments, but notably support from Banks and UK Government had a higher rating than Scottish or Local Government.

Alistair McAlinden, head of hospitality and leisure for KPMG in Scotland, said: “It’s incredibly concerning, but not entirely surprising, to hear that so many licensed trade operators across Scotland are worried about largescale job losses and possible business failures over the next twelve months. The industry is facing a battle for survival and there will inevitably be some casualties.

“KPMG’s Economic Outlook research gives some cause for cautious optimism, forecasting that Scotland’s economy should regain lost ground in 2021, provided a vaccine programme is successful and rolled out quickly.   But, for many pubs and bars, the crisis is happening right now and time is running out.

“The sector has worked tirelessly to reopen and rebuild consumer confidence. A collaborative effort and increased support from political leaders will be essential to ensure the industry survives an incredibly challenging few months ahead. 

“As part of this, KPMG’s multidisciplinary team are already supporting a number of licensed trade operators as they seek to navigate their way through these financial headwinds.”

Colin Wilkinson concluded: “The SLTA, is currently celebrating our 140thanniversary, and has been the voice of the independent licensed On-trade in Scotland since 1880. Right now, our industry is fighting for its survival with many businesses on the precipice of business failure.

“The sector is a critical part of Scotland’s tourism and food and drink economies and we urge UK, Scottish and Local Governments to provide continuing support for our pubs and bars and protect the jobs that they provide directly, and the associated jobs in the wholesaling, brewing/distilling and food producing sectors.”

Key Findings

  • 63% of businesses are employing less people now than in January (a traditional quiet month), and it is forecast this will increase to 70% less employees by Christmas.
  • 45% of businesses do not expect a return to normal trading until a COVID vaccine is found.
  • 85% of outlets are seeing a downturn in footfall and 89% in revenue.
  • 38% have seen revenue drop by over 50% versus same period last year. 
  • There is evidence that venues in rural and tourist locations are faring slightly better than in urban areas with 77% showing a revenue decline versus 89% nationally.
  • Retailers have spent significant sums on preparing to meet social distancing standards, with an average investment of £2,500 per outlet, which equates to £15m across Scotland’s pubs and bars.
  • There are major implications for employment.
  • Most respondents felt positive about government support provided, but notably support from Banks and UK Government had a higher rating than Scottish or Local Government.
  • The Eat Out to Help Out scheme was well received amongst those serving food with an enthusiasm to extend.
  • Retailers have adapted to new ways of working and serving their customers with 43% increasing their use of digital technology and 35% offering food for takeaway.

Same Again?

Sober Scots’ drinking habits since lockdown

Scots are the most likely in the UK to be drinking same or less since before lockdown was imposed

Lockdown was predicted to cause a sharp rise in alcohol consumption and binge-drinking but most UK drinkers (65%) actually drank the same, less or stopped drinking altogether during lockdown compared to previously.

In the weeks following the reopening of the hospitality sector, this trend has continued. Brits are continuing to drink in moderation, but more and more are choosing to do so at the pub.

Scotland is no exception to this trend and, though Scottish pubs only recently reopened their doors, close to a third (30%) of Scots have returned to the pub at least once.

Scots continue to drink in moderation despite the reopening of pubs

The latest YouGov survey commissioned by the Portman Group (2,296 UK adults, 12-13 August) shows that the moderate majority continues to prevail in the UK, even with the much-celebrated reopening of pubs. 

In fact, of those who drink alcohol, even more people are drinking the same, less, or have cut out alcohol altogether, than during lockdown. These figures have now increased from 65% in May 2020 to 88% in August. This shows an ongoing trend of people drinking less during this unprecedented time and supports data by Nielsen which showed that in the 17-week period covering lockdown to 11 July 2020 Brits consumed almost 1.3bn litres of alcohol during the UK’s lockdown period, almost half the 2bn litres consumed in the same period last year.

The survey data for Scotland shows that:

  • 92% of Scottish drinkers are drinking the same (59%), less (27.5%) or have cut alcohol out altogether (6%) since the hospitality sector reopened compared to before lockdown.
  • Scots are the most likely in the UK to be drinking the same, less or have stopped compared to drinkers in England (85%), Wales (88%) and Northern Ireland (89%).
  • Concerningly 5% of Scottish drinkers said they were drinking more since the hospitality sector reopened than before lockdown. We encourage anyone concerned about their own, or another persons’, drinking to visit Drinkaware or the NHS online for free advice and guidance.
  • The moderate majority of Scottish drinkers (69%) continue to drink responsibly, within the Chief Medical Officer guidelines of 14 units per week. Weekly intakes remain similar to before lockdown.
  • Scottish drinkers are also slightly more moderate than their English (66%) and Welsh (68%) counterparts in terms of remaining within the guidelines.

More than a quarter of Scottish pubgoers return to their local

While many of us continue to drink at home, a great number of Scots have resumed much loved habits of gathering at their local pub. Pubs have put in place diligent social distancing measures to ensure that communities can revisit pubs while feeling safe and secure. Scots are responding well to the ‘new normal’ with almost three quarters (76%) saying social distancing has not deterred them from a return to the pub.

It’s not just drinkers who have been making the most of the pubs reopening; pubs have long been a happy and inclusive environment for all members of the community.

The recent period has seen Scots making a cautious return to many much-loved venues outside of just hospitality, including shops and beauty salons, and it seems that, despite one in eight (12%) feeling the pinch after months of furlough or even job losses, we are still setting aside time and money to return to our favourite institutions, something that has been made clear with the popularity of August’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

Pubs in Scotland opened their doors once again on 15 July. Despite this, close to a third (30%) of Scottish adults have made their way back to the pub, slightly higher than Northern Ireland (26%) but lower than Wales (37%) and England (42%).

Speaking about the results of the survey, John Timothy, CEO of the Portman Group, the social responsibility and regulatory body for alcohol in the UK, commented: “During the course of the COVID-19 crisis there has been a fear that many people would turn to alcohol and that misuse would increase.

“Yet Scots are showing continued moderation both at home and, happily, now back at the pub. It’s great to see people supporting their community pubs while drinking sensibly and maintaining social distancing.”

Commenting on the results in Scotland, Douglas Meikle, Head of Alcohol Policy at the Scottish Alcohol Industry Partnership, said: “It’s encouraging that so many Scots continue to drink within the CMOs’ guidelines of 14 units a week, in spite of the unprecedented nature of lockdown, with many deciding to drink less.

“As things get back to being more normal it will be important to continue that trend and encourage those who want to go back to our pubs and bars that they can do so safely”.

Ae fond farewell: The Royal McGregor

It is with a heavy heart that we need to inform our dear customers that the Royal McGregor will not be re-opened by the McGregor family who have operated the site for the past 20 years.

With only 18 months left on our current lease the COVID-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time. Despite our best efforts our landlord would not agree to a lease extension which would have made continuing to trade a viable option.

We have shared so many wonderful memories with our loyal customers, family and amazing staff and will miss you all dearly. Thank you for being part of our success story, we will forever be grateful.

Please share any pictures you have either enjoying our hospitality or working with us. It would be nice to reminisce!

Best wishes for the future.

James & Marie-Claude
xxx

STUC warns hospitality employers not to pass the burden onto workers as businesses reopen

Edinburgh pub worker calls on hospitality staff to join a union

Commenting on the re-opening of indoors hospitality, Roz Foyer, General Secretary of the STUC has reminded employers that workers are preparing to resist detrimental changes to contracts and conditions associated with the safe return to work.

Roz Foyer said: “Indoor hospitality re-opening safely depends on changes to working conditions. But these must not be allowed to come at a cost to workers.

“Workers are the heart of hospitality, but for too long employers have been able to pass the unstable condition of the industry onto their staff.

“We will not forget the businesses who refused to furlough their staff during this pandemic, and who have treated workers callously with attempts to make them sign away their terms and conditions in order to ringfence profit or prevent unexpected costs.

“From cafes like Coias in Dennistoun to cinema chains like Cineworld, workers have come together to win their demands in the return to work period.

“If you are asked to work differently or to sign a new contract, don’t accept, delay, and work out with your colleagues whether you are happy with the proposal. Then join a union and take action.”

Matthew Waddell, 19, who returned to work at the Diggers pub yesterday, urged workers to be prepared to resist the prospect of changes to work and conditions.

He said: “The incoming economic crisis should be a call to all workers to join unions, unionise their workplaces and make sure those unions are active.

“The precarious nature of hospitality work and the effect a COVID recession will have on it makes unionisation all the more urgent.

“The Better Than Zero campaign against precarious work is on hand to give guidance and support for hospitality workers and any other workers who do not have unions.”

Beer gardens staying closed “a bitter blow”

The announcement by the First Minister that outdoor areas in Scotland’s pubs and bars are to remain closed was met with shock and dismay by the Scottish Licensed Trade Association.

SLTA Managing Director, Colin Wilkinson said: “The First Minister’s announcement today is a bitter blow for Scotland’s Hospitality Sector, which expected to be able to now kick-start the rebuilding of the industry.

“With the decision now delayed until the 2nd of July, operators face another anxious period for the survival of their businesses. This may also have a knock-on effect for the re-opening of indoor areas, originally planned, all being well, for the 15th of July.

“This delay, hypothetically only 2 weeks before full reopening may be possible, with social distancing measures in place, again brings into question whether these first steps, for those who have an outdoor area or the potential to have one, will actually help businesses to start recovering from this pandemic.

“With Government guidelines due to be published soon, hospitality businesses will have very little lead-in time to prepare for complying with guidance for outdoor areas, and that alone causes problems, especially on social distancing parameters, which look like remaining at 2m, and toilet provision for customers seated outdoors.

“Research shows that unless the 2m social distancing parameters are reduced, the potential reductions in capacity could be as high as 87%.

”Without question, health and safety must come before profit, but the First Minister’s comment that ‘there is emerging evidence that places such as pubs, restaurants and gyms can be hotspots for transmission” will do nothing to alleviate customer confidence in returning to our pubs and bars.

“Already a recent survey to gauge how people feel about life post-lock down, revealed that 62% of people were unlikely to return to bars and restaurants for some time yet. The challenge of rebuilding our industry just got harder.

“The need for ongoing support for the industry is now even greater with the announcement that outdoor areas will remain closed for at least another two weeks.

“Ongoing and increased support for the months ahead is essential and when the industry does start to rebuild, Governments, both north and south of the border, must not see this as a marker to further reduce support for the industry.”

A survey of 22,000 pub goers and beer drinkers across the UK polled by the consumer organisation CAMRA, the Campaign for Real Ale, has found that two thirds of people are confident to get back down the pub when their local re-open

The survey found that 65% had confidence in going back to pubs, with only 4% saying they were ‘extremely unconfident’ about returning to their local.

The news comes as the UK Government confirmed that pubs are likely to start re-opening from 4th July and the Scottish Government stating that pubs north of the border can begin to re-open from 15th July.

CAMRA National Chairman Nik Antona said: We know that during lockdown people have really missed going to their local to enjoy a pint with family and friends.

“Its really encouraging hat our survey shows most people are confident that they can safely return to pubs, whether that’s outside in beer gardens or inside following social distancing measures.

“As pubs re-open in the next few weeks in England and then in Scotland it is essential, they get support from local communities – especially as many will face reduced trade as a result of social distancing

“For people who can’t get to their local, because they’re shielding, and for those pubs that can’t re-open, because they are smaller or because their space isn’t suitable, CAMRA will continue to support those pubs offering take-away and delivery services while things get back to normal.

Over the next few weeks, I’d like to encourage everyone to play their part in helping pubs get back on their feet either by supporting them in person or from your own home. Now, more than ever, we need to use our pubs or else risk losing them forever.”

CAMRA’s beer ordering app ‘Brew2You’ to allows people to order take-aways and deliveries from pubs in their area, whilst the ‘Pulling Together’ campaign page at www.camra.org.uk/pullingtogether lists services from pubs, breweries and cider producers across the country.

Southsider’s Quizmaster crowned BBC’s Mastermind Champion

Dave McBryan, the Quizmaster of The Southsider, on West Richmond Street in Edinburgh, was crowned BBC’s 2020 Mastermind Champion on Monday night [Monday 4 May].

The 46-year old, who is originally from Dublin, beat off competition from 96 contestants throughout the series to take home the title, in an experience he described as a “pretty nerve-wracking affair”.

Appearing with five other contestants in the final, Dave chose the View Askewniverse films by Kevin Smith as his specialist subject, and American singer Otis Redding and Olympic Fencing as his specialist subjects in his heat and the semi-final.

This is the second time he has won a major TV quiz, after winning ‘Fifteen to One’ on Channel 4 in 2014.

Dave, who is currently ranked Number 2 in the Irish Quiz Rankings and is a member of the Irish Quiz Team, has been competing in quizzes for seven years and has been the quizmaster of The Southsider for over five years.

His quizzes were as popular as ever until the pub was forced to close during lockdown, drawing over 20 teams every week. However, it is not for the faint-hearted, with McBryan putting everyone through their paces every Thursday evening at 9pm.

David Moore, General Manager of The Southsider, said: “I am so delighted for Dave, his win is truly well-deserved. It is a real privilege to have him as our Quizmaster, his quizzes are a highlight of our week at The Southsider.

“He really is a professional and I am looking forward to what he has in store for our quiz programme when we are back open again.”

Last orders? CAMRA responds to extended lockdown

Responding to the Scottish Government’s strategy to exit lockdown measures, which state that gathering in pubs is likely to be banned or restricted ‘for some time to come’, CAMRA Director for Scotland Sarah Crawford said: “While the Government must follow scientific advice and do what is right to keep people safe, this will undoubtedly be a huge blow for pubs and breweries. 

“The pub and brewing sector was among the first to be hit by the lockdown and it is set to be among the last to get back to normality. One thing many people are looking forward to when all this is over is going down the pub to meet friends and family for a drink.

If the Scottish and UK Governments do not make sure that our local pubs and breweries receive all the financial support that they need to weather this crisis, we risk not having them around at all when all this is over.”