People seeking work who are disabled or have long-term health conditions are to be offered help from a dedicated employability adviser.
The initiative will be in place by next summer and involve advisers working with employers to develop roles suited to an individual’s needs.
Included as part of last week’s Programme for Government, it is designed to support people into work, boosting Scotland’s workforce and helping to drive economic growth. It will also help to deliver the Scottish Government’s ambition of creating a fairer labour market and halving the disability employment gap by 2038.
The Scottish Government will partner with local authorities and others including health and voluntary organisations to implement the measures. They build on the existing No-one Left Behind approach which has supported 61,930 people since April 2019, 19% of whom reported having a disability.
Employment Minister Tom Arthur visited the Routes to Work South, Cook and Learn Café in Cambuslang to find out how people facing challenges in getting back to work are currently being helped.
Mr Arthur said:“Our commitment to deliver specialist employability support from summer 2025 will ensure that more disabled people are able to secure fulfilling jobs.
“Tackling discrimination and stigma faced by those with disabilities and long-term health conditions is key to building a diverse workforce and creating a more prosperous and resilient economy.
“The project that I am visiting today demonstrates how supporting those furthest away from employment into work helps us to address labour market inequality and provide people with a better of quality-of-life.”
This support is being brought forward as part of the Scottish Government’s No One Left Behind Strategic Plan launched earlier today.
John Swinney presented his first programme for government to parliament on Wednesday. John Swinney came to power as First Minister in May, but due to the UK General election, this was his first opportunity to set out his government’s programme (write MAIRI SPOWAGE and EMMA CONGREVE).
The Programme for Government has four key themes: eradicating child poverty, economic prosperity, improving public services and protecting the planet. So far, so familiar – and not a huge departure in the substance from the three priorities presented in the 2023-24 Programme for Government by his predecessor.
The speech, of course, focused on the upside and how each strand of what was set out will be mutually reinforcing. One thing we often comment on when looking at these high-level speeches is that some of these things might occasionally conflict with each other. So, what is good for business might not be good for tackling child poverty, and vice versa.
However, the FM made clear that child poverty is ‘first and foremost in these priorities’. This sounds like a clear signal that where there are trade-offs, child poverty concerns will win over. Some may disagree with putting that first above all else, but for those of us trying to understand why certain decisions are being made, it’s not unhelpful for the government to be setting out a clear steer.
We’ll be looking at what that means in practice when it comes to Budget allocations; to implement much of what he talked about – for example, a roll-out of the type of whole family support that has been piloted so far – will require new money.
Also, following on from the Finance Secretary’s grim statement on Tuesday, no amount of prioritisation can totally overcome fiscal constraints.
Despite the fact that more targeted (rather than universal) measures are probably sensible for targeting child poverty, the non-delivery of the pledge to roll-out free school meals to all children in primary 6 and 7 is likely to sit uneasily with the FM. More tough decisions in this mould are likely to need to be made.
Elsewhere in the Programme for Government, there are some interesting specifics in relation to the economy, particularly on planning. The government has committed the establishing Scotland’s first “Planning Hub”, the establishment of Masterplan consent areas, and a planning apprenticeship programme. Whilst this sounds like pretty dry stuff, one of the most common frustrations raised by businesses is about the planning system, so this is likely to be welcomed.
Other things were notable by their absence. The Human Rights Bill and the Learning Disability, Autism and Neorodivergence Bill were not on the list of Bills for this 2024-25 session.
Given the 2025-26 session will be cut short by an election, they aren’t likely to be passed this parliament. This has come as a shock to many given previous assurances and the substantial resources that civil servants and stakeholders alike have put into the pre-legislative process to get these ready.
We’re yet to hear a convincing explanation for why they’ve been delayed.
The fiscal statement casts a long shadow
The statement on Wednesday was hugely overshadowed by the fiscal statement on Tuesday. Overall, as well as setting out fiscal “black holes” it felt like Tuesday’s statement sucked up most of the political energy around in the week, leaving Wednesday to feel like a bit of a low energy anti-climax.
We are still not sure after the statement exactly what the Finance Secretary sees as the gap in the budget. Given she has set out £500m of “direct savings” plus the use of £460m of use of Scotwind money, we assume it is roughly £1 billion. £800m of this has been tied to “pay pressure”, and the rest (we assume £100-200m?) has been described as “in demand-led activities like legal aid, police and fire pensions and the costs of accommodation for Ukrainian displaced people” plus COVID-related health measures.
After a bit more detective work, we’ve documented the “£500m of direct savings” in the table below, along with where we still have questions:
Published description
What we’ve worked out
Savings
£65m
Pre-announced decisions: peak fare train fairs to return, no free bus travel for asylum seekers plus agreement with local government to draw on existing programmes to fund pay deals
According to Transport Scotland, the cost of the full year subsidy for the peak fares pilot was approximately £40m[i]. In theory then, not having it running for the last 6 months saves £20m, although it is unclear to us if this was budgeted for to begin with given the pilot was only expected to last for 6 months of the year.The BBC reports £2m had been set aside for free bus travel for asylum seekers[ii]BBC reports that Councils have been asked to redirect £5m of this year’s nature restoration fund to help fund pay deals[iii]. In addition, £10m has been redirected from the Connecting Scotland’s digital devices programme (free iPADs and laptops for people who were digitally excluded), £2m from the fund to expand free school meals to p6 and 7 pupils who receive the Scottish Child Payment (although they say it will still be delivered) and £26m from the Flood Risk Management Programme, on the basis that “councils do not need it in this year”.ivThese total £65m.
£188.4
New additional measures announced on 3rd September
Full table of figures are laid out in the Annex of the letter to the Finance Committee.As there are no figures to help put these reductions into context (i.e. in relation to the size of the original budget allocations) it makes it hard to judge whether these are likely to have a large or small impact.
£60m
Savings anticipated through emergency spending controls, in addition to savings set out as part of the £188.4 million.
They are linked to recruitment freezes, and reductions in costs of travel and marketing, as per the letter to Cabinet reported in the mediav. We have no information on how the number has been calculated.
£160m
The cost of universality in the Winter Fuel Payment.
The money for an equivalent to the UKG universal WFP was added to the Block Grant adjustment for 2024-25. The recent UKG decision to remove universality means that this money will need to be returned to UKG through the fiscal framework reconciliation process.SG could spend this money in 2024/25, but would then need to find savings in subsequent years to cover the reconciliation.We understand a decision on whether it will be spent this year is yet to be made.
Total savings
£473.5m
Up to £500 million saving measures
We understand from officials that the “up to £500m” is a rounding up of the total.
The fact that we are having to piece this together, including from media reports, is obviously not ideal. We don’t think it would have been too much to ask to have all this detail laid out, along with the evidence of impact that was cited in the letter to the Fiance and Public Affairs Committee.
We hope more information is released into the public domain in the coming weeks alongside the Autumn Budget Revision so help clear things up, as far as possible…
A look ahead to the budget
We now know the Scottish Budget will be on the 4th of December. The other important day to understand what the budget may look like for the rest of this financial year and the next will be the UK Budget on 30th October.
We should at that point have much more clarity about the financial envelope which the Scottish Government is working with for 2025-26.
There are also likely to be significant changes to departmental allocations for the current financial year (2024-25). Rachel Reeves said in her fiscal statement as Chancellor in July that she expected some of these in-year issues to be soaked up by departmental budgets.
The extent to which this will actually be achieved will also impact the monies coming to the Scottish Government. Therefore we may be most of the way through 2024-25 before we actually understand how much of the Scotwind revenue is required to balance the budget in 2024-25. It may mean that this is not the last fiscal statement we have about the current financial year.
Given all these in-year movements we would like to call, yet again (like SPICe have done in their blog), for the Government to provide in the Budget next year’s plans alongside the current position for 2024-25.
The convention (for some reason) would be to present the budget plans for 2025-26 compared to the plans that were set out for 2024-25 in December 2023. The in-year movements we have seen over the last three years make a nonsense of this convention (which reduces transparency and hampers parliamentary scrutiny).
This may be a bit of a niche point but it would make analysis of these statements much easier. Here’s hoping that this is finally the year this change is made.
Independent Advisers will be able to launch investigations into alleged breaches of the Ministerial Code under new powers being given to them by the First Minister.
Currently, investigations can only begin following a referral from the First Minister. Now, the Scottish Ministerial Code will be strengthened to enable independent advisers to investigate potential breaches whenever they feel it is warranted.
In a further reform, where a breach is established, advisers will be able to provide advice to the First Minister on appropriate sanctions.
The independent advisers will also be given a role in scrutinizing Ministers’ declarations of interests so they can offer advice on avoiding actual or perceived conflicts of interest.
First Minister John Swinney said: “The people of Scotland rightly expect Ministers, including myself, to be held to the highest standards.
“The 2023 Ministerial Code already set an extremely high bar in terms of standards in public life and these updates to the Scottish Ministerial Code, which are, collectively, the most significant since independent advisers were introduced in 2008, will further increase transparency and scrutiny.
“These changes, and others which will be confirmed when the new Code is published, will ensure we keep the public trust and continue to deliver for the people of Scotland.”
Culture Secretary Angus Robertson has announced a review of Creative Scotland to ensure its operations and structure are optimal to the needs of the culture sector, as part of this year’s Programme for Government.
The review, which will be the first since the public body’s establishment in 2010, will examine Creative Scotland’s remit and functions as a funding body, and how the overall impact of planned increases in levels of public funding can be maximised to support sustainability in the sector and in participation in the arts.
Full details of the review and its process will be set out to parliament in the near future, and will include seeking views from individuals and organisations from all parts of Scotland’s culture sector.
The Culture Secretary also confirmed that following a period of necessary due diligence, Creative Scotland had now received funding previously allocated to it in the 2024/25 Scottish budget, including £1.8 million for youth music, and £6.6 million that will allow its Open Fund to be re-opened.
Mr Robertson said: “Scotland’s culture is world-renowned and it remains integral to our nation and our economy. Over the past 14 years, Creative Scotland has had a significant role in supporting that role, distributing £65 million of public funding in the last year alone.
“With the sector having faced a number of new and enduring challenges since then, the time is now right for us to ensure Creative Scotland’s remit and functions remain relevant, in line with our commitments to invest at least £100 million more annually in the arts and culture by 2028-29, and to continuous improvement across all our public bodies.
“It is routine for public bodies to undergo reviews throughout their lifetime, and while that process is ongoing we are clear that we expect the organisations involved to take forward their business as usual.
“Creative Scotland is no different and they will be carrying on with their important work throughout.
“In the meantime I’m pleased to confirm release of £1.8 million to Creative Scotland for youth music, and another £6.6 million, which includes £3 million towards its Open Fund and £1 million for Screen Scotland.”
“We welcome the continued commitment to provide an additional £100m in funding for Culture and will work with the Scottish Government on the effective allocation of that funding, to the benefit of culture and creativity in Scotland.
“We also welcome today’s confirmation of £6.6m, originally committed to Creative Scotland by the Scottish Government at the start of this financial year, reinstating budget removed in the previous year.
“We continue to see unprecedented levels of demand for the Open Fund for Individuals and will process the high volume of applications we have received. With the budget now confirmed, we will work to re-open this fund.
“We are sure today’s confirmation of the release of this funding will be welcomed by the creative community of Scotland.”
Swinney to publish Programme for Government on Wednesday
Plans to deliver a wealthier, fairer and greener Scotland despite difficult financial challenges will be announced by First Minister John Swinney at Holyrood this week.
The First Minister will this week deliver his first Programme for Government since taking office, laying out how the Scottish Government will focus on improving the lives of the people of Scotland.
First Minister John Swinney said: “Against a challenging financial backdrop this year’s Programme for Government will set out clear actions to deliver real change for the people of Scotland.
“The Prime Minister was clear last week that the UK Budget, to be delivered in October, will be painful, and the reality is that the UK’s finances will inevitably affect the funding available to us here in Scotland. Their decisions mean tough decisions ahead for Scotland.
“Yet despite this the Scottish Government will continue to prioritise action to eradicate child poverty, to grasp the opportunities of delivering net zero and to grow the economy by investing in public services and infrastructure.
“While we will work with the UK Government wherever we can, we will continue to urge them to drop the damaging cuts and set new spending rules that support investment.
“The Scottish Government already has a strong track record of improving lives in challenging circumstances. We have delivered an expansion of funded childcare, record investment in the NHS, renewable energy development, and the introduction of the Scottish Child Payment, which are strong foundations for this year’s Programme for Government.
“Even when faced with unprecedented budgetary constraints, our aim will be to improve people’s lives by focusing on clear priorities that make the biggest difference.”
STARMER LAYS OUT HIS PLANS TO DELIVER CHANGE FOR THE COUNTRY
This government has been elected to deliver nothing less than national renewal, to stop the chaos of the past fourteen years, to turn the page on the era of politics as performance, to return it to public service and start the work of rebuilding our country.
Because people are crying out for change, and that’s what this government of service will deliver through actions, not words.
That is why today I am setting out our plan for change, to turn the page and rebuild our country so that it’s back in the service of working people. That is what our mission-driven government will be about, focused on ambitious goals bringing together the best of our country.
We’re getting on with the job right away. Today we’re setting out new laws that will put manifesto commitments into action – improving living standards for working people and fixing the foundations of the country so that every part of the UK is supported to drive economic growth.
Growth starts with economic stability, which is why we are introducing a budget responsibility bill which will make sure that taxpayers’ money is respected.
From that solid foundation we can release the brakes on growth and wealth creation.
We will reform the planning laws, a choice ignored for fourteen years, to build the homes and infrastructure Britain needs. I know how important this is.
Our pebble-dashed semi provided a secure foundation that my parents were able to build their life on. I want everyone to have that security, including those renting, which is why we are also bringing forward tough new protections for renters.
It’s not just security at home that matters, but security at work. That’s why we will level-up rights at work to deliver security and dignity for working people. It’s what they deserve.
Alongside that, we’ll push forward devolution to the cities, regions and councils of England to deliver quality jobs and opportunities in every corner of this country. We’ll do that by putting local decision-makers in charge, moving power away from Westminster and back to those with skin in the game, who know their communities best.
We’ll also ensure people in those communities feel safe and secure. That means strengthening community policing by giving the police greater powers to deal with antisocial behaviour, strengthen support for victims, and bring forward plans to halve violence against women and girls.
We won’t stop there. I was the first in my family to go to university, and I remember the pride on my mum and dad’s faces when I graduated. I want every child to have the opportunity I had to succeed.
And no child should feel that they have less of a chance to fulfil their potential because of the circumstances they were born into.
That’s why we will break down the barriers to opportunity that hold so many young people back from living the life they deserve. We’ll also raise standards in schools, with one of our first steps recruiting 6,500 new teachers by ending unfair tax breaks for private schools.
We will also get our health service back on its feet by reducing waiting times, and bring the Mental Health Act into the twenty first century to tackle the mental health crisis.
This is a programme that will deliver the change that so many across the country are crying out for, one that is driven forward by this government of service.
Through this work, we will stop the chaos, fix our foundations, and take the brakes off Britain by returning politics to serious government.
That is the path to national renewal and rebuilding our country, and we take another step forward today.
This government has been elected to deliver nothing less than national renewal, to stop the chaos of the past fourteen years, to turn the page on the era of politics as performance, to return it to public service and start the work of rebuilding our country.
Because people are crying out for change, and that’s what this government of service will deliver through actions, not words.
That is why today I am setting out our plan for change, to turn the page and rebuild our country so that it’s back in the service of working people. That is what our mission-driven government will be about, focused on ambitious goals bringing together the best of our country.
We’re getting on with the job right away. Today we’re setting out new laws that will put manifesto commitments into action – improving living standards for working people and fixing the foundations of the country so that every part of the UK is supported to drive economic growth.
Growth starts with economic stability, which is why we are introducing a budget responsibility bill which will make sure that taxpayers’ money is respected.
From that solid foundation we can release the brakes on growth and wealth creation.
We will reform the planning laws, a choice ignored for fourteen years, to build the homes and infrastructure Britain needs. I know how important this is.
Our pebble-dashed semi provided a secure foundation that my parents were able to build their life on. I want everyone to have that security, including those renting, which is why we are also bringing forward tough new protections for renters.
It’s not just security at home that matters, but security at work. That’s why we will level-up rights at work to deliver security and dignity for working people. It’s what they deserve.
Alongside that, we’ll push forward devolution to the cities, regions and councils of England to deliver quality jobs and opportunities in every corner of this country. We’ll do that by putting local decision-makers in charge, moving power away from Westminster and back to those with skin in the game, who know their communities best.
We’ll also ensure people in those communities feel safe and secure. That means strengthening community policing by giving the police greater powers to deal with antisocial behaviour, strengthen support for victims, and bring forward plans to halve violence against women and girls.
We won’t stop there. I was the first in my family to go to university, and I remember the pride on my mum and dad’s faces when I graduated. I want every child to have the opportunity I had to succeed.
And no child should feel that they have less of a chance to fulfil their potential because of the circumstances they were born into.
That’s why we will break down the barriers to opportunity that hold so many young people back from living the life they deserve. We’ll also raise standards in schools, with one of our first steps recruiting 6,500 new teachers by ending unfair tax breaks for private schools.
We will also get our health service back on its feet by reducing waiting times, and bring the Mental Health Act into the twenty first century to tackle the mental health crisis.
This is a programme that will deliver the change that so many across the country are crying out for, one that is driven forward by this government of service.
Through this work, we will stop the chaos, fix our foundations, and take the brakes off Britain by returning politics to serious government.
That is the path to national renewal and rebuilding our country, and we take another step forward today.
Improving living standards for working people through economic growth will be the central focus of new laws set to be unveiled by His Majesty The King today
King’s Speech set to unveil a raft of bills to unlock growth and improve living standards for working people
Ambitious legislative agenda will drive forward delivery of the government’s first steps and missions to rebuild Britain
New laws deliver manifesto commitments to provide better transport, more jobs and turbocharge building of houses and infrastructure
Improving living standards for working people through economic growth will be the central focus of new laws set to be unveiled by His Majesty The King today [Wednesday 17 July].
In the first State Opening of Parliament under this government, The King’s Speech is expected to unveil over 35 bills and draft bills which will support delivery of the government’s first steps and missions to rebuild Britain.
The package of bills will focus on growing the economy through better transport, more jobs and turbocharging building of houses and infrastructure – helping to make every part of the country better off.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Now is the time to take the brakes off Britain. For too long people have been held back, their paths determined by where they came from – not their talents and hard work.
“I am determined to create wealth for people up and down the country. It is the only way our country can progress, and my government is focussed on supporting that aspiration.
“Today’s new laws will take back control and lay the foundations of real change that this country is crying out for, creating wealth in every community and making people better off – supporting their ambitions, hopes and dreams.”
Transport
New legislation will be introduced to create a simplified rail system by bringing rail services into public ownership once their contracts expire or if operators fail to deliver on their commitments. This approach will avoid the burden falling on taxpayers to cough up for compensation to operators for taking services into public ownership.
Transferring operations to the public sector will save the taxpayer millions of pounds currently paid out in fees to private operators each year. It will end the fragmentation of our railways, establishing a more efficient and reliable rail service for passengers – helping to get people to work on time and boosting productivity.
The government will also introduce legislation to establish a new public body, Great British Railways (GBR) which will be focused on improving services and creating better value for money for passengers.
With Great British Railways, the fares and ticketing system will see simplified fares, discounts, and ticket types. Once established, the new body will also ensure that ticketing innovations like automatic compensation, digital pay-as-you-go and digital season ticketing are rolled out across the whole network.
The King’s Speech is also expected to feature a Better Buses Bill to deliver the government’s manifesto commitment to reform the bus system by delivering new powers for local leaders to franchise local bus services and to lift the restriction on new publicly owned bus operators.
This will help bring an end to the postcode lottery of bus services and will give local communities throughout England the power to take back control of their bus services. It will mean local leaders can decide to introduce better bus networks, at pace, which reflect the needs of the local communities that rely on them.
Building
Getting Britain to build more housing and infrastructure, including through planning reform, will also be central to the Government’s plans to strengthen economic growth.
The Bill will speed up and streamline the planning process to build more homes of all tenures and accelerate the delivery of major infrastructure projects.
By enabling democratic engagement with how, not if, homes and infrastructure are built – the major brakes on the planning system will be addressed to support sustainable growth.
Empowering local communities
As part of the government’s plans to empower local leaders to deliver change for their communities, the King’s Speech is also expected to unveil the English Devolution Bill. This will deliver the Government’s manifesto commitment to transfer power into local communities and recognising the vital role local leaders play in supporting growth by establishing local growth plans that bring economic benefit to communities and households across the country.
The speech will build on the first fortnight of the government’s mission of national renewal.
From the launch of a National Wealth Fund to strengthen UK investment, to a new Mission Control tasked with turbocharging the UK to clean power by 2030, to opening the recruitment of a new Border Security Command, and the Deputy Prime Minister’s pledge to kickstart a new devolution revolution to transfer more powers out of Westminster and into the hands of local people – the Government is hitting the ground running and wasting no time in its work to change the country.
What is the King’s Speech and what does it mean for me?
All you need to know about the State Opening of Parliament
The King’s Speech is a speech written by the government and delivered by the Monarch at the State Opening of Parliament.
It marks the beginning of a new parliamentary year, or session, and is an opportunity for the government to set out its legislative agenda for the coming months.
In the speech, the government will typically set out bills which it intends to introduce to Parliament in the session ahead, as well as other policy priorities which do not require legislation.
When is the State Opening of Parliament?
The State Opening of Parliament takes place on the first day of a new parliamentary session.
Each parliamentary session begins with the State Opening of Parliament and runs for around 12 months.
Sessions are not a specified length, but there are normally five sessions in each Parliament. This means there are typically five sessions between each general election. A new parliamentary session will begin after every general election.
When a parliamentary session comes to an end the House is prorogued, which means the parliamentary year has formally ended until the next State Opening of Parliament.
What happens during the State Opening of Parliament?
The State Opening of Parliament begins with the Monarch’s procession from Buckingham Palace to Westminster.
The Monarch arrives at the Sovereign’s Entrance to Parliament and subsequently leads the Royal Procession to the chamber of the House of Lords.
A senior officer in the House of Lords known as Black Rod will then summon members of the House of Commons into the Lord’s Chamber to listen to the speech.
Before entering the Commons chamber, the door is shut in Black Rod’s face and the official will strike the door three times before it is opened. This practice dates back to the Civil War and symbolises the Commons’ independence from the monarchy.
When the Monarch leaves the chamber, a new parliamentary session begins.
Members of both the House of Commons and House of Lords will then debate the content of the speech for a number of days before the speech is voted on.
Did you know?
Traditions around the Monarch’s speech and the State Opening of Parliament can be traced back to the 16th century.
Before the Monarch arrives, the Yeomen of the Guard search the cellars of the Palace of Westminster for explosives to commemorate Guy Fawkes’s gunpowder plot of 1605.
The custom of Black Rod banging on the door of the Commons dates back to 1642, when Charles I tried to arrest five MPs, and symbolises the right of the Commons to exclude royal messengers.
The Imperial State Crown has 2,868 diamonds, 17 sapphires, 11 emeralds, 269 pearls, and 4 rubies.
First Minister John Swinney has declared the priorities that his government will focus on as part of his vision to deliver for all of Scotland.
The Scottish Government will focus on four areas targeted to have the most immediate benefits for people in their everyday lives. They are:
Eradicating child poverty
Growing the economy
Tackling the climate emergency
Improving public services
In order for work to be prioritised immediately, the First Minister confirmed he will present his first Programme for Government before the Scottish Parliament’s summer recess.
He also committed to work with Members across the chamber to realise Scotland’s potential, in the spirit of the opening of Parliament 25 years ago.
The First Minister said: “In setting out my approach to government, I am acutely aware of the economic and fiscal realities we face.
“With that important context, today, I will outline the four priorities that will guide my government’s decisions on policy and budget; the four priorities around which I will work to secure cross-party support, for the good of the people of Scotland.
“Eradicating child poverty, growing the economy and tackling the climate emergency all link together to support my fourth key priority – to improve Scotland’s public services – not as a cost, but as a vital investment in our future health, equality and prosperity.
“I will set out how my government and my cabinet will take practical steps to deliver in these four areas of priority when I present my Programme for Government before the summer recess.
“The Programme for Government will be central to a wider range of decision-making that will happen before the summer on key issues on energy, on oil and gas, on reform of the health service and on taxation. Action will be set out on each, tackling the challenges facing Scotland today.”
The date for Programme for Government will be confirmed in due course, subject to Parliamentary timetable.
It’s a new term at Holyrood, and a new Programme for Government – the first for the new First Minister Humza Yousaf (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s EMMA CONGREVE).
In terms of content, however, there are not a lot of new ideas to get excited about. This isn’t necessarily a criticism – we all remember the meltdown generated by a certain “mini-budget” statement made by the UK Government about this time last year. In addition, the public finances don’t exactly have a lot of give in them at the moment.
However (and this a criticism!) there are a few big issues that have been kicked into the long grass, yet again, some of which could raise money, others that could prove critical to preventing additional spend in the future.
Here is our first glance summary of what is on offer for the next parliamentary year.
A focus on rebuilding trust with business
The First Minister’s New Deal for Business Group was mentioned several times as a way the Scottish Government plans to rebuild relationships with business after a rocky few months in the Spring.
The FM has said the PfG is “anti-poverty, pro-growth”. The data we published last week showed that the Scottish Government does have some way to go to build trust with business.
There is a specific commitment to “work with business to identify and remove regulations that are no longer required, if a good case can be made”. It will be interesting to see how this works in practice – particularly given the recent response to concerns about the short-term lets regulations.
More widely on the economy, there is a commitment to a new Green Industrial Strategy. While many may welcome a clear expression of how the Scottish Government plan to grasp the economic opportunity presented by net zero, the thought of another Government strategy document may also fill some with horror.
Childcare
Widely trailed, the expansion of childcare makes up a key plank of the commitment to reducing poverty.
However, in terms of detail, there isn’t a lot to go on. A vague commitment to phase in funded support to those two-year-olds “who will benefit the most”, developing some evidence on what might be required for future expansion for those over nine months and at primary school, and testing a new digital service for parents managing their childcare is the extent of it.
We may have to wait till the Budget until we have any more clarity on what the scale of some the spend and outcomes here could be. There appears to be no commitment to expanding the childcare entitlement to two-year-olds on the same basis currently offered to three- and four-year-olds, though we can only infer that from reading between the lines of the document.
A figure of 13,000 additional children and families accessing funded childcare is mentioned, but it’s not clear what this this relates to or what this will do to reduce poverty. Overall, these announcements are unlikely to add up to a significant impact on child poverty numbers unless they are deployed at a much larger scale.
There is also a specific funding commitment for the next budget year to increase pay in the early learning and childcare sector to £12 an hour, in line with the commitment for social care workers. Given the recent concerns from the childcare sector about the viability of their operations, it will be interesting to see if this alleviates their concerns.
What wasn’t in there
There is scant mention of the National Care Service, other than the Bill will continue (“subject to the agreement of Parliament” which sounds fairly ominous), but we had previously been promised an update “after the summer recess” on what the Government’s updated plans (and associated costings) are. The Programme for Government would have been an obvious place to provide that update, but we shall have to wait a bit longer to see
On Council Tax, there will be a ‘continuation’ of the Joint Working Group to identify further reforms to council tax (we have a few ideas) and some new levers to be handed over to local government for empty and second properties. Nothing substantive here and another year, it seems, of everyone avoiding dealing with the thorn in the side of any claims that Scotland has a progressive tax system.
Little detail on fiscal trade-offs
In May, the Deputy First Minister presented the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS), in which outlined three pillars to achieving fiscal sustainability – spending decisions focused on critical missions, supporting economic growth and a strategic approach to tax policy – set against the backdrop of spending commitments in excess of funding by £1bn in 2024-25, rising to £1.9 billion by 2027-28.
At the time, the SFC expected a larger income tax reconciliation than has transpired, and the increased borrowing powers in the latest Fiscal Framework Agreement also help ease some of this, but we think the funding gap remains at around £600m – still a large number.
The Programme for Government adds little detail on how the Scottish Government will deal with this shortfall. There is a vague mention of “more effective targeting of existing provision and services to support those who need it most” in line with the MTFS, but no specifics on whether there will be cuts to programmes and if so, to which.
The list of public service reform activities, while welcome (who could object to cataloguing assets or trying to save public funds on estates?), is hardly transformational, and unlikely to go a long way towards addressing the funding gap.
There is also no detail on the direction of travel of the taxes the Scottish Government does control, with a tax strategy promised for May next year instead – and of course we will know more about plans for 2024-25 come Budget time, even if being clear in advance and about longer-term intentions would be more in line with the aim of being strategic in tax policymaking.
The First Minister did outline the intention to introduce a new Building Safety Levy akin to that legislated for by the UK Government for England and which will apply from next year, with the intention to make developers contribute to the cost of cladding remediation work.
But this is not part of current devolved powers, and so the Scottish Government would need to successfully negotiate that with the UK Government before even starting the lengthy process of introducing and designing a new levy. So it’s unclear when it could come into place, assuming the Scottish Government did get said powers.
As for revenues, clearly that depends on the tax rate – but that would have to be balanced against the Government’s intention to encourage further housebuilding. If it were to be levied at a similar rate to England, while it no doubt would raise welcome revenues, it would not be a major solution to the medium-term funding gap.
Looking ahead to the budget – on 14th December??
So, we’ll need to get the details on these trade-offs – and therefore the areas that will be bearing the brunt of any cuts – in the Scottish Budget itself. Given we’ve heard today that the UK Autumn Statement will be on 22nd November, the usual timing would mean the Scottish budget would be on 14th December.
We’ll have to wait for confirmation from the Scottish Government on the timing, which hopefully will come soon!
£1.5 million to open up entrepreneurial opportunities
The first phase of a new initiative to identify and nurture new entrepreneurial talent has been launched.
Funding of up to £1.5 million will be delivered through the Pathways Pre-Start Fund this financial year to provide support, mentoring and advice services for people thinking about taking the first steps towards creating a start-up company.
It will have a particular focus on closing the gender gap and widening participation in entrepreneurship, and is the first step to developing a pre-start network to bring more people into the entrepreneurship pipeline.
This week’s Programme for Government has committed to a further £15 million of investment in Scotland’s start-up community, encouraging entrepreneurs from all walks of life to start and scale their business.
To launch the Pathways Pre-Start Fund, Wellbeing Economy & Fair Work Secretary Neil Gray visited the offices of PwC UK in Glasgow to meet with members of the Black Social Entrepreneurship Programme, run by The School for Social Entrepreneurs in collaboration with PwC.
He said: “Through the jobs they provide and problems they solve, new businesses play a fundamental role in growing our economy while creating better futures for our people and communities. That is why we must inspire more Scots to view starting a business as a viable path.
“We want to cultivate a thriving, world-leading entrepreneurial ecosystem and our Programme for Government 2023/24 sets out a very clear vision and tangible actions to help this and future generations of entrepreneurs succeed.
“There is a moral and economic duty to do more to ensure women – indeed, every under-represented group – have the support and opportunities they need to start and grow successful businesses.
“Kick-started by immediate funding this year, our Pre-Start programme will play an important role in breaking down barriers and ensuring Scotland’s start-up community continues to flourish.”
