Eleven local authorities are to move into the highest protection level as efforts continue to suppress the incidence of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the weeks up to Christmas.
Speaking in parliament this afternoon, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon also announced that travel restrictions will be put into law to prevent people who live in a Level 3 or Level 4 local authority area from travelling outside their local authority except for an essential purpose – such as work or caring responsibilities.
The regulations also non-essential travel into a Level 3 or 4 local authority area, except for the same reasons.
The changes to protection levels will come into effect at 6pm on Friday (20 November) and will remain in place for three weeks until Friday 11 December.
The City of Glasgow, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire, Stirling and West Lothian will move from Level 3 – where they have been since the new levels system was announced – to Level 4.
The City of Edinburgh, Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Dundee, Fife, Perth & Kinross and Angus will all remain at Level 3.
Restrictions around outdoor socialising for those in Level 1 are to be extended to allow eight people from three households to meet outdoors. Previously only six people from two households were permitted to meet outdoors.
The First Minister said: “In the seven days up to Friday, Scotland as a whole had just over 140 new cases of COVID per 100,000 people. All of the areas moving to Level 4 were above that level – ranging from West Lothian, with a rate of 158 cases per 100,000, to Glasgow with 277.
“We simply do not have the assurance we need that hospital and ICU services will be able to cope as we go deeper into winter. Pressure on hospitals in these areas – and on those who work in them – is already severe and with the additional pressure that the coming weeks may bring, it could easily become intolerable.
“At these levels we would not have the flexibility we need to ease restrictions over Christmas – which, in common with the other UK nations, we so desperately want to do.
“The clear advice of our public health experts is that we must drive infection rates down further in these areas. They are not confident that Level 3 restrictions will do this to the extent necessary.
“That is why, albeit reluctantly, we have taken the decision to place these areas into Level 4 for three weeks. I know people are frustrated that other restrictions have remained in place longer than planned but Level 4 is intended to be short and sharp. And in this situation, it is specifically intended to have an impact in advance of Christmas and the most winter challenging period.
“Our objective in taking this action now is to protect the NHS, open the possibility of seeing some loved ones at Christmas and complete the journey to next spring with as few restrictions as possible and with the minimum impact on life and health.”
Following the announcement from the First Minister that the majority of Local Authority areas within the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area have been placed in Level 4 and additional protective measures will come into effect from 20 November, NHSGGC Chief Executive, Jane Grant said: “We understand that for many the increased COVID measures that have been announced today will be disappointing.
“However, given the increased pressures on our essential services and the rising number of people in our hospitals with COVID, we are hopeful that these measures will help to drive the number of cases in our area down and help to protect our local communities.
“We currently have more than 700 people in our hospitals with COVID, this number has been increasing steadily for a number of weeks. Our staff and services are under the same levels of pressure as they were at the peak of the first COVID wave so we hope these new measures will help us to continue to provide vital services and support to our staff, patients and their loved ones.”
Responding to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement in the Scottish Parliament yesterday, the SLTA’s managing director, Colin Wilkinson, said: “This is the worst possible news for the licensed hospitality industry and there will be many operators who will now be seriously considering if their businesses have a future at all – that’s how serious the situation is.
“Many operators in levels two and three areas have already taken the reluctant decision to close down their businesses as it is simply unviable to operate with the current restrictions on the sale of alcohol and the operating times that are currently in place. Even hotels and restaurants serving food feel defeated by these unnecessarily complex and ever-changing guidelines.
“Moving into level four suggests that the closing of pubs and bars in October in five health board areas, prior to the introduction of the tier system, has done little to bring down the rate of Covid-19 infections,” said Mr Wilkinson. “And yet again, there has been no meaningful engagement with our industry and there has been no evidence to prove that the virus is being spread within the licensed hospitality sector.
“We reiterate that we support the goal of suppressing the virus – of course we do,” he continued. “But we also reiterate that we are a sector in crisis with hundreds of businesses facing permanent closure and thousands of jobs hanging in the balance. Sadly, for some, the damage is already irreparable.”
Meanwhile, an SLTA survey of 600 on-trade premises highlighted that within the pub and bar sector, 50,000 jobs could go. The trade body estimates that two-thirds of hospitality businesses could be mothballed or go under in the coming weeks.
Over 50% of jobs in the pub and bar sector could also be lost which will have a particularly deep impact on the employment of young people as over 45% of staff employed are under the age of 25.
Mr Wilkinson added:“Closing these businesses also brings additional immediate financial costs for operators with the cost of actually closing a small wet pub around £2,000, a medium food pub around £6,000 and a large pub between £8,000 and £10,000.
“There are also the ongoing costs while closed which fall far short of support grants currently in place.An SLTA survey revealed that the average fixed costs over a wide range of licensed hospitality business types came to over £11,000 per month.”
Responding to the announcement that 11 council areas will move into Tier 4 restrictions from Friday, CAMRA Scotland’s Director Joe Crawford said: “Pubs in all tiers across the country have been feeling the devastating effects of restrictions on their businesses. Being moved up to Tier 4 will be a devastating blow for pubs in these 11 council areas.
“Many publicans are understandably worried about how and when these restrictions will end and whether they will be able to survive the tough weeks and months ahead.
“We urgently need a long-term, sector- specific support package to help our locals – and the breweries that serve them – survive the winter.
“Lockdowns and restrictions across all tiers has decimated trade and knocked long-term consumer confidence in pubs as a safe, Covid-secure place to meet. Entering the highest tier is putting more local pubs in an untenable position to make it through this crisis.
“Simply put, without greater financial support, we risk seeing hindreds of Scottish pubs and breweries close their doors for good.”
POLICE SCOTLAND are asking the public to comply with the restrictions announced today by The Scottish Government to stop the spread of #Coronavirus.
Assistant Chief Constable Alan Speirs said: “We are asking people to take personal responsibility to do the right thing and remember the purpose of these measures is to aid the collective effort to protect the NHS and save lives by preventing the virus from spreading.
“As we have consistently said throughout the pandemic, the vast majority of the public have been complying with the regulations.
“People have been exceptionally quick to act when new restrictions are introduced. The mandatory wearing of face coverings in shops is evidence of this. Scotland is, generally, a law-abiding nation and I fully expect that public support to continue as these new measures are introduced.
“Therefore, the policing approach we adopted from the outset of the pandemic will not change. Our officers will continue to engage with the public, explain the legislation and guidance, and encourage compliance.
“We will use enforcement as a last resort where there is a clear breach of the legislation.
“The Chief Constable has said publicly on numerous occasions that we will not be routinely stopping vehicles or setting up road blocks, and that will not change as a result of travel restrictions now being in law.
“However, officers may in the course of their duties come across people who are travelling from one local authority area to another. In areas where travel restrictions apply, officers will continue to use the common sense, discretion and excellent judgement that they have applied since the crisis began.”
Updated travel guidance will be published ahead of the travel regulations being introduced on Friday 20 November.
From 6pm Friday 20 November, the level allocations will be:
Level 1: Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar Highland Moray Orkney Shetland
Level 2: Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Argyll and Bute Borders Dumfries and Galloway
Level 3: Angus Clackmannanshire Dundee City Edinburgh Falkirk Fife Inverclyde North Ayrshire Perth and Kinross
East Lothian and Midlothian will remain in Level 3 until Tuesday 24 November when they will move to Level 2.
Level 4: East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire West Lothian
The assessment of what level of protection should be applied to each local authority is broadly based on an analysis of five key indicators:
number of positive COVID-19 cases per hundred thousand people over the last week
percentage of positive tests
forecast for new cases in the weeks ahead
capacity of local hospitals
capacity of local intensive care facilities
These factors are assessed alongside the advice and recommendations of local public health officials, National Incident Management Team, the Scottish Government’s chief clinical and policy advisors, and consideration of local circumstances, such as: specific COVID-19 outbreaks; travel and work patterns; and the extent to which health services are provided by neighbouring health boards. Final decisions are based on all of these factors.
Alongside a table setting out the levels, a detailed analysis paper has also been published setting out the Scottish Government’s assessment and overall decision for each local authority.
The five-level strategic framework aims to tackle COVID-19 with measures strong enough to reduce virus prevalence while proportionate to the scale of the problem in different parts of the country – and in a way that minimises, as far as possible, the other harms caused by the pandemic.
The Scottish Parliament’s Economy, Energy and Fair Work Committee has published its report into legislation proposed by Labour MSP Neil Bibby to govern the relationship between tied pub tenants and pub-owning businesses.
The Tied Pubs (Scotland) Bill is being backed by CAMRA, the Campaign for Real Ale, which is calling on the Scottish Government and all parties in the Scottish Parliament to vote for the legislation when it is debated later this month.
Licensees in Scotland are currently exempt from regulations that are in place across the rest of Great Britain which stop large pub companies from taking more than is fair or sustainable from pub profits by forcing licensees to buy their beer from them rather than on the open market.
Responding to the publication of the Scottish Parliament Committee’s report, CAMRA Chairman Nik Antona said: “CAMRA is calling on Business Minister Jamie Hepburn and the Scottish Government to do the right thing and give their backing to the Tied Pubs Bill when it is debated later this month.
“This Bill will create, in law, a powerful pubs code to guarantee tied pub tenants are treated fairly and can earn a decent living.
“Scottish Government support for this legislation would be very warmly welcomed by both consumers and the licenced trade as a positive move to help pubs, publicans and pub-goers, after weeks and months of harsh restrictions which are devastating the industry.
“Just a few weeks ago Heineken’s pub arm, Star Pubs and Bars, were fined £2 million by England and Wales’ Pubs Code Adjudicator for serious and repeated breaches of the pubs code. But despite being headquartered in Edinburgh, their Scottish tenants don’t have similar protections to stop pub companies taking more than is fair or sustainable from tied licensees’ profits or make it harder to sell a range of locally-brewed products in their pubs.
“The Scottish Government must now take this opportunity to change the law so that tied pub tenants here have the same protections as those south of the border.”
Statement given by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House on Wednesday 21 October 2020:
Good afternoon, thank you for joining us. I will start with the usual daily report on the COVID statistics. The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 1,739.
That represents 19.8% of people newly tested, and 9.7% of the total number of tests carried out.
The total number of cases in Scotland since the start of the pandemic therefore now stands at 50,903.
Of yesterday’s cases 605 were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 520 in Lanarkshire, 250 in Lothian and 105 in Ayrshire and Arran.
The remaining cases were spread across nine other health board areas.
Now I would remind you that an element of today’s cases will be catch up on the past few days given the backlog in testing that we’ve had over the weakened, and that I have spoken about earlier in the week.
I can also confirm that 873 people are currently in hospital which is an increase of 49 from yesterday.
And 73 people are in intensive care, that is three more than the figure yesterday, although again, for them who follow these figures very closely,
Let me point out that yesterday’s figure was revised in the course of the day from 69 to 70. So today’s 73 is an increase of three.
I very much regret though, to report that in the past 24 hours, 28 additional deaths have been registered of patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days.
That is the highest number of deaths we’ve reported in the daily figures since the 21st May. And it takes the total number of deaths, under this measurement, to 2,653.
National Records of Scotland has also just published its weekly update, which you will recall includes cases where COVID is a suspected or contributory cause of death.
Today’s update shows that by Sunday just passed, the total number of registered deaths linked to COVID, under that wider definition, was 4,376.
75 of those deaths were registered last week, that is 50 more than in the week before – and that is the highest weekly total since early June. 58 of the 75 deaths took place in hospitals, 12 in care homes, and five at home or in other non-institutional settings.
Every single death, of course, represents the loss of somebody who was special and loved and I want, again today, to send my deepest condolences to all those families and networks of friends across the country who have been impacted in this most extreme and cruel way by the impact of this virus.
I want, though, to just give a point of context though, and it doesn’t in anyway take away from the very upsetting nature of the statistics I have just reported to you.
Today’s figures on hospital and ICU admissions and the figures I’ve just reported on deaths are obviously clearly concerning – and we take them very seriously as we consider our response and our next steps in the fight against the virus – however, as Jason will touch on briefly as well, these figures, it must be remembered, relate to people who could have been infected with the virus perhaps two to three weeks ago.
So they should not be taken as an indication that the current restrictions we are all living under are not having any impact.
I’ll say a little bit more about the early indications that the impact that is having later on.
My main update for today though concerns the temporary restrictions on hospitality which we introduced two weeks ago, and which legally took effect on Friday 9th October.
As I said yesterday, we will publish, and I can tell you now that we will do this on Friday, a new strategic framework for managing the virus, and indeed living with the virus through the winter and into the early parts of next year.
That strategic framework will include different levels of restrictions that can be applied, either nationally or regionally, depending on the level of infection across the country or in different parts of the country.
Subject to parliamentary approval of the broad framework, it is intended that the levels will be applied from the 2nd November and reviewed regularly thereafter.
The detail of what level will initially apply to each part of the country will be assessed in the coming days and set out in advance of 2nd November.
It is important for me to be clear at this stage that given the nature of what we are dealing with, and given some of the numbers I’ve just reported, all be it with the caveats attached to them that I did.
We can’t rule out that this new approach will entail further extension of existing restrictions, or perhaps even tougher restrictions for all or parts of the country, if we think that is necessary to safeguard health and life.
But that will depend on up to date assessments of the impact of our current restrictions, and it’s also important to be very clear that all of our decisions will be balanced by an assessment of the wider harms that COVID and the measures we are taking to tackle it are having, and that includes the wider harms to health and wellbeing and to jobs and livelihoods.
The timescale for introducing the new levels system leaves us with a short term decision about the current temporary restrictions on hospitality. These are currently due to expire on Monday coming, the 26th October.
However, following a meeting of the Cabinet this morning, I can confirm that we have decided to extend these measures for a further week.
This is first and foremost a public health decision. Although we have grounds for cautious optimism that the restrictions are having an effect, the clinical advice to Cabinet is that it would not be safe to lift them as early as Monday.
But, secondly, the extension allows us to transition more smoothly to the new levels system that we hope that will be introduced on 2nd November.
So I can confirm that the current temporary restrictions will now apply until 6am on Monday 2nd November. And that of course includes the tighter restrictions that are currently in place across the Central Belt.
Let me run through what those restrictions are.
But before I do so, let me take the opportunity to remind everyone that the rule against visiting other people’s houses also remains in place for now.
Because that is best way of limiting transmission from one household to another.
Let me run through the wider restrictions.
Firstly – and with the exception of the five Central Belt health board areas that I’ll come onto in a moment – the restrictions mean that pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes can only operate indoors from 6 am to 6 pm.
These premises cannot serve alcohol indoors at any time, although they can serve alcohol outdoors up until 10 pm.
In addition, hotel restaurants can serve residents indoors beyond 6pm, but not with alcohol.
We also introduced much tighter restrictions in the five health board regions where case numbers have been especially high those are Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley.
In these areas, all licensed bars and restaurants must remain closed indoors and outdoors, although takeaways are permitted.
And again there is an exception for hotels serving food and non-alcoholic drinks to guests. And cafes – whether licensed or unlicensed – can stay open until 6 pm to prevent social isolation. But they must not serve alcohol.
In addition in these areas, snooker and pool halls, indoor bowling alleys, casinos and bingo halls will remain closed for an additional week.
Contact sports for people aged 18 and over will also remain suspended – with an exception for professional sports.
Indoor group exercise activities will not be allowed for people aged 18 and over for that further week – although gyms and pools can remain open for individual exercise.
And outdoor live events are not permitted in those five regions.
Finally, we continue to advise people very strongly who live in these Central Belt areas, not to travel outside the health board area that they live in, if they do not need to do so.
Similarly, people in other parts of Scotland should not travel to those areas unless it is absolutely necessary.
I know all of this is really unwelcome and these restrictions are harsh. They are harsh financially for many individuals and businesses, and they are harsh emotionally for all of us.
So I want to stress again, firstly that none of these decisions are being taken lightly. This is all about trying to save lives and minimise the health damage that this virus we know is capable of doing.
But I also want to stress that we do believe that these restrictions do make a difference, and indeed we believe they may already be making a difference.
Even allowing for today’s figures, though it is and I must insert this note of caution, it is too early to be certain about any of this this.
But even allowing for today’s figures we think that we may be starting to see a reduction in the rate at which new cases are increasing.
So the early data underlines the importance of all of us sticking with the restrictions that are in place.
Now given that today’s Cabinet decision today requires many business to stay closed or continue to restrict their trading, I also want to confirm today that we will extend the support, the financial support available to them, to cover the additional week.
Full details of that support and how it applies to different sizes of business will be published online. But there will be extensions to both the Business Support Grants that we offer, and the support we are providing at this stage for the job furlough scheme.
All businesses will receive, proportionally, the same level of support over the extension 7 days – for each day of closure – as they did in the first 16 days of restrictions.
And, for this limited period, as I say, we are also extending the Scottish Governments furlough support scheme for an extra week as well.
Now later in the week, when we publish the new Strategic Approach to managing COVID, we will also set out our planned levels of support for the future in the event of further restrictions.
It is important to be clear at this stage, and this is a point that I will speak more about in days to come, but I want to be clear about it now.
That while the level of support we set out in the strategic framework will be the maximum level of support that the Scottish Government is able to provide within the resources available to us at this time, it is the minimum that we think is necessary.
In common with other devolved administrations and indeed many councils now across England, we will continue to pursue urgent discussions with the Treasury about the provision of adequate support and funding to support businesses and individuals through the kinds of restrictions that are likely to be necessary in the period ahead.
Now I’ve spent, for good reason, a bit of time talking about the extension to the temporary restrictions, but I want to draw my remarks to a close by just giving my usual reminder of the general rules and guidelines that we are asking everybody to follow right now.
Again let me remind people living in Lothian, Lanarkshire, Forth Valley, Ayrshire and Arran and Greater Glasgow and Clyde not to travel outside their own health board area unless they really need to do so.
Let me remind everybody, all of us across the country that we should not visit other people’s homes right now except for very specific purposes. If you are providing childcare or looking after a vulnerable person.
And when we do meet people from other households – outdoors, or in indoor public places that are open, for example cafés, we shouldn’t be meeting in groups of more than 6, and those 6 people should not be from more than two households.
Please don’t share cars with other people outside your household if you can avoid it.
Work from home if you can and download the Protect Scotland app, if you haven’t already done so.
And finally;
remember to wear Face coverings when you are out and about
remember to Avoid crowded places.
remember Clean your hands and hard surfaces
remember keep Two metres away people in other households.
and remember Self isolate, and get tested, if you have any of the symptoms of COVID.
Thank you all for the sacrifices you continue to make.
It will make a difference, I know it is hard but we must stick with it in order to continue that process of getting COIVID under control.
Extra week of closures and new tiered restrictions could be end of Scotland’s pubs as we know them: CAMRA
Responding to the First Minister’s announcement for further restrictions for pubs, CAMRA’s Director for Scotland Joe Crawford said: “The First Minister’s announcement of an extra week of pub closures and the prospect of further lockdowns and restrictions from 2nd November has come as a hammer blow to pubs and breweries across the country.
“These businesses feel like they are being offered up as a sacrificial lamb without sufficient evidence that pubs – who have done everything they have been asked to track and trace customers and make their venues COVID-secure – are responsible for transmission of the virus.
“The Scottish Government must urgently review and improve their support package to make sure all our pubs and breweries get the financial compensation and support they need to get through this extended closure period – and, crucially, also during the tiered restrictions that will follow.
“In addition, ministers need to give breweries and pubs enough notice about their plans so people can plan and re-stock for opening their doors again.
“Without a longer-term support package to make up for lost trade and reduced consumer confidence I fear that this could be the end for the beer and pub sector as we know it.”
The Scottish Licensed Trade Association has expressed “extreme disappointment” at the decision by the Scottish Government to extend current restrictions on hospitality across Scotland ahead of the “tier” approach to local lockdowns that is expected to be introduced next month.
Paul Waterson, media spokesman for the Scottish Licensed Trade Association (SLTA), said: “We expected this so we are not surprised. However, yet again there has been no consultation with the industry and as we said earlier this month, we believe these measures to be cataclysmic for hospitality operators.
“Hundreds of businesses are facing permanent closure and with that thousands of jobs will be lost – the damage could be irreparable.”
A recent survey highlighted that nearly 40% of hospitality businesses were considering closure or business exit. In September, an SLTA survey of 600 on-trade premises highlighted that within the pub and bar sector, 12,500 jobs could go.
Mr Waterson added: “We estimate that two-thirds of hospitality businesses could be mothballed or go under in the coming months. Over 50% of jobs in the pub and bar sector could also be lost which will have a particularly deep impact on the employment of young people as over 40% of staff employed are under the age of 25.”
Reiterating that responsible operators continue to run safe, carefully monitored establishments, he said: “Our industry is in serious trouble and it is only going to get worse. The £40 million financial support package is nowhere near enough to save jobs and prevent operators from going under. And once again we do not have details of other financial help promised by the Scottish Government.
“Once again it is the licensed trade that is suffering and the current measures affect not just our industry but the wider economy.”
CAPITAL’S PUBS TO CLOSE ON FRIDAY AT 6pm FOR TWO WEEKS
Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh this afternoon (7 October 2020):
Presiding Officer, I will update the chamber today on the current position in relation to Covid.
I will give an assessment of the current course of the pandemic; propose difficult but important temporary measures to stem the increase in cases; set out how we will support businesses affected by them; and update the chamber on the longer term work we are doing to further improve our ability to live with Covid.
In all of this, I will be very frank about the challenges we face and the difficult balances we must try to strike.
None of this is easy, I am acutely aware that in every decision we take lives and jobs are at stake and I want to assure, not just the chamber but the country, that none of these decisions are taken lightly.
First, though, I will provide a summary of the daily statistics that were published a short time ago.
Since yesterday, an additional 1054 cases have been confirmed. That represents 13% of the people newly tested, and takes the total number of cases to 34,760. A total of 319 patients are currently in hospital with confirmed Covid-19, which is an increase of 57 since yesterday.
And 28 people are in intensive care, which is an increase of 3 since yesterday. I regret to report that 1 further death has been registered of a patient who had been confirmed as having the virus. The total number of deaths in Scotland under that measurement is therefore now 2,533.
National Records of Scotland has also just published its weekly update, which includes cases where COVID is a suspected or contributory cause of death.
Today’s update shows that by last Sunday, the total number of registered deaths linked to Covid was 4,276.
20 of those deaths were registered last week. That is the highest weekly number of deaths since late June.
Every single one of these deaths represents the loss of an irreplaceable individual.
So once again, I want to send my deepest condolences to all those who are currently grieving.
These figures illustrate the rising challenge we again face from this virus.
That challenge is also set out – starkly – in an evidence paper published today by the Scottish Government’s senior clinical advisors – the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Nursing Officer and the National Clinical Director.
It assesses our current situation in relation to Covid.
And it explains – as I will try to do in this statement – why we need to introduce additional measures to control the virus; why it is urgent that we act now; and why we have decided upon the specific actions that I am setting out today.
Before I come onto that let me emphasise some of the more positive elements of our current position.
It is important – for the morale of all of us – that we don’t forget that progress has been made. It might not feel this way, but the situation now is better than it was in March.
We are benefiting from the sacrifices we made over the summer. By driving the virus to very low levels then, we have helped to ensure that – even after several weeks of increases – the estimated total number of cases is currently just 13% of the peak level back in March.
Cases are rising, but they are not rising as quickly as they were then.
In addition, and most importantly of all, we now have Test & Protect teams across the country, who are doing exceptional work. Test & Protect is now bearing a lot of the strain of controlling the virus.
And of course we understand more now about how to reduce the risk of transmission – for example, by meeting outdoors rather than indoors if possible, wearing face coverings, cleaning hands thoroughly, and keeping our distance from people in other households.
So while there are significant restrictions still in place – and they are hard and painful – we are living much more freely now than in the spring and early summer.
We are determined – if at all possible – that this will continue to be the case.
So let me be clear. We are not going back into lockdown today. We are not closing schools, colleges or universities. We are not halting the remobilisation of the NHS for non-Covid care. And we are not asking people to stay at home.
So while the measures I announce today will feel like a backward step, and in many respects I know they are, they are in the interests of protecting our progress overall.
It is by taking the tough but necessary action now, that we hope to avoid even tougher action in future.
Let me turn now to more detail to the state of the virus.
The need for action is highlighted by the daily figures I reported a moment ago, more fundamentally, in the evidence paper published today.
It’s worth remembering that when I updated Parliament just over two weeks ago, the average number of new cases being reported each day was 285. That was up from 102 three weeks previously.
Now, we are reporting an average of 788 new cases each day. In addition, I can report that in the 7 days up to Monday, the number of people in hospital with Covid increased by almost 80%.
And the number of people who died with Covid last week was the highest for 14 weeks. In fact, there was the same number of deaths in the last week alone as in the whole of the previous month.
The increase in the numbers of people in hospital with, and sadly dying from Covid reflect the rise we are now seeing in new cases among older age groups. In the second half of September, cases were rising most rapidly in the younger age groups.
However, in the past week, cases in people over 80 years old increased by 60%, and cases in the 60 to 79 year old age group more than doubled.
And we are seeing geographic as well as demographic spread.
Without a doubt – and by some distance – the highest levels of infection are across the central belt.
We are particularly concerned about Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire & Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley – and that will be reflected in some of what I say later.
But that should not obscure the fact that numbers are rising across Scotland. The majority of our health board areas are now recording more than 50 new cases per 100,000 of their population each week. And virtually every heath board area has a rising number of cases. The only exceptions are Orkney and Shetland, and even they have had cases in recent weeks.
There is also, as we speak, a significant outbreak in the Western Isles.
So the need to act – and to act across the country – is clear. What is also clear is the need to take additional action now.
I mentioned earlier that prevalence of the virus is currently around 13% of its March peak.
However, we estimate that the number of new Covid cases is currently growing by around 7% each day.
So without action – and this is perhaps the starkest warning in today’s evidence paper – we are likely to return to the peak level of infections we had in the Spring by the end of this month.
It’s also instructive to consider the experience of other countries. Our modelling suggests that we are approximately four weeks behind France and six weeks behind Spain in the resurgence of the virus.
Their resurgence, like ours, was initially concentrated among younger people. However it spread to other age groups and they are now seeing significantly more hospital admissions, more people in intensive care, and more deaths.
It is to interrupt that trajectory that we must act now.
Of course, we have already taken perhaps the most important – and certainly the most painful – step we can to reduce transmission.
For the last 12 days, apart from certain limited exceptions, we have not been able to meet up in each other’s homes.
That should already be making a difference to infection rates even if, because there is always a time lag between introducing new measures and the impact they have, we are not yet seeing it reflected in our figures.
And let me take the opportunity to emphasise again today how vitally important it is that we all stick to that rule. It’s incredibly hard for all of us not to visit friends and family, or have them visit us. But it is the single most effective measure we can take to stop Covid passing from one household to another.
So please stick with it.
That measure is vital, but the clinical advice I have received now is that it is not sufficient. We need to do more and we need to do it now.
And to those who may wonder and ask, understandably, if the measures I set out today go too far, let me be clear about this.
If this was a purely one-dimensional decision – if the immediate harm from Covid was all we had to consider – it is quite likely that we would go further. But, 7 months into this pandemic, I am acutely aware that this is not and cannot be a one-dimensional decision. We have a duty to balance all of the different harms caused by the pandemic.
We must consider the direct harm to health from the virus – which must be reduced – but do that alongside the harm being done to jobs and the economy, which in turn has an impact on people’s health and wellbeing.
And we have to consider the wider harms to health and wellbeing that the virus – and the restrictions deployed to control it – are having on all of us.
For all of these reasons, we are applying a far more targeted approach than we did in March – one which reduces opportunities for the virus to spread, while keeping businesses and other activities as open as possible.
And we are not recommending that people who shielded over the summer, should return to staying completely indoors. We know how damaging that is to your wellbeing. But we do recommend that you take extra care – especially if you live in the central belt. You can now access information about infection levels in your local neighbourhood on the Public Health Scotland website.
Presiding officer, let me now set out the additional measures that we are proposing.
The measures on hospitality are intended to be in force for 16 days, from Friday at 6pm to Sunday 25 October inclusive – in other words across the next two weeks and three weekends.
So, firstly, with the exception of the five health board areas I will talk about shortly – pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes will be able to operate indoors on the following very restricted basis only:
During the day, from 6am to 6pm, for the service of food and non-alcoholic drinks only.
Hotel restaurants will be able to operate beyond 6pm, but only for residents and without alcohol.
The reason we are not closing indoor hospitality completely is that we know the benefits, in terms of reducing loneliness and isolation, of giving people – particularly those who live alone – somewhere they can meet a friend for a coffee and a chat.
But the restrictions will be strictly applied. And all the current regulations and the limits on meeting a maximum of 6 people from 2 households in indoor public places will still apply.
Again with the exception of the central belt areas I will mention shortly, bars, pubs, restaurants and cafes can continue to serve alcohol outdoors up to the existing curfew time of 10pm, and subject to the 6/2 rule on group size.
There will be an exemption to these rules – in all parts of Scotland – it’s important to stress this, for celebrations associated with specific life events such as weddings that are already booked and funerals. The current rules for those will continue to apply.
These are the new measures that will take effect nationwide.
However, because of higher levels of infection in the central belt, we are introducing stricter restrictions in the following five health board areas – Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire & Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley.
In these areas, all licensed premises – with the exception of hotels for residents – will be required to close indoors and outdoors, though takeaways will be permitted. Hotels will remain open for residents.
Cafes which don’t have an alcohol license will be able to stay open until 6pm to support social isolation.
In addition, snooker and pool halls, indoor bowling alleys, casinos and bingo halls will close in these areas for two weeks from 10 October.
Contact sports for people aged 18 and over will be suspended for the next two weeks – with an exception for professional sports.
And indoor group exercise activities will not be allowed – although the current rules will remain in place for under 18s. Gyms can remain open for individual exercise.
Outdoor live events will not be permitted in these five regions for the next two weeks.
And finally, we are asking people living in these 5 health board areas to avoid public transport unless it is absolutely necessary – for example for going to school or to work, if home working is not an option.
We are not imposing mandatory travel restrictions at this stage, and specifically, we are not insisting that people cancel any half term breaks they have planned.
However, in general, we are advising people living in Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire & Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley not to travel outside the health board area they live in, if you don’t need to – and likewise people in other parts of Scotland should not travel to these areas if they don’t need to.
More detail of all that I have just set out will be available on the Scottish Government website.
I now want to set out some of the reasoning behind these decisions, and the focus on hospitality.
I know that the vast majority of pubs, bars and restaurants have worked exceptionally hard over the last few months to ensure the safety of their staff and customers. I am grateful to them for that.
However the evidence paper published today sets out why these settings present a particular risk. The R number seems to have risen above 1 approximately three weeks after the hospitality sector opened up. We know that more than 1/5 of people contacted by test and protect, report having visited a hospitality setting.
It doesn’t mean that is absolutely where they got the virus but it does show these settings pose a particular risk of transmitting the virus.
That makes sense from what we know about how the virus is spread.
Indoor environments, where different households from different age groups can mix, inevitably present a risk of transmission. That risk can be increased, in some hospitality premises, if good ventilation is difficult, and if it is hard to control the movement of people. And the presence of alcohol can of course affect people’s willingness to physically distance.
For all of these reasons, significantly restricting licensed premises for sixteen days temporarily removes one of the key opportunities the virus has to jump from household to household. It is an essential part of our efforts to get the R number back below 1.
It is also worth noting that many other countries are also introducing restrictions on hospitality – Ireland, France, Germany and Belgium have announced a variety of different measures over the past few days.
I mentioned earlier that one of the things we are trying to do is to balance the public health harm caused by Covid, with wider economic and social harms.
I know that the measures we are proposing today, although they are temporary, will have a significant impact on many businesses and I am sorry for that. But since the Government is placing an obligation on businesses, we also have an obligation to help them financially.
I can announce that we are making available an additional £40 million to support businesses that will be affected by these measures over the next two weeks. We will work with the affected sectors – obviously especially hospitality – in the coming days to ensure that this money provides the most help, to those who most need it and gets to them as quickly as possible.
For the rest of this month, businesses can also use the UK Government’s job retention scheme. However, that now requires a significant contribution from employers – so one of the things we will discuss with businesses, in relation to our own support package, is how we can mitigate some or all of that contribution.
As I have indicated, our intention is that these additional measures will be in place for just over two weeks, incorporating three weekends – from 6pm on Friday to Sunday, 25 October. Of course, we will keep the situation under review between now and then, and keep Parliament updated.
We hope that the restrictions already in place and those I have announced today will stem the increase in new cases. But I can’t stress enough that is fundamentally is down to all of us.
The more we comply with all of the restrictions and advice the more effective they will be.
It is also important because we want these restrictions to be temporary that we use the next two weeks to prepare, protect and prevent – to further strengthen our resilience and our ability to live alongside this virus. So I can confirm over the next period we will also take the following steps.
Firstly, we will introduce regulations to extend the mandatory use of face coverings in indoor communal settings – this will include, for example, staff canteens and corridors in workplaces.
We will take action to strengthen compliance with the different strands of the FACTS advice – focusing on areas where we know from research that compliance is not yet high enough, for example, the need to self isolate.
I can also confirm that, from this weekend and across Scotland, we are asking shops to return to 2 metre physical distancing and asking them to reintroduce the mitigations they put in place earlier in the pandemic – for example, one way systems in supermarkets.
We will also work across all other sectors to review – and where necessary tighten – the guidance and regulation on their operating practices.
In addition, over the next two weeks, we will conduct a further review of our testing strategy – setting out the further steps we will take to further expand capacity, which is already underway, and build resilience and also the further steps we will take to extend testing to more people and more groups of people without symptoms.
And, lastly, we will finalise a strategic framework, setting out the different levels of intervention which can be adopted in future – either locally or across Scotland – depending on how the virus is spreading. We very much hope to align the broad framework with those being considered by other UK nations – although each nation will take its own decisions on implementation.
We will put, subject of course to Parliament’s agreement, put this strategic framework to a debate and vote in Parliament in the week after the recess.
Presiding officer, I am well aware that the measures I have outlined today are disruptive to many businesses – obviously especially hospitality businesses – and will be unwelcome to many people across the country.
However although they are significant – as they need to be, to make an impact – they do not represent a lockdown. In fact, they are designed to reduce the likelihood of a future lockdown.
We are not requiring people to stay inside all day as we were earlier in the year.
Schools will stay open. Learning will continue in our Universities and Colleges.
Shops will continue to trade, and businesses like manufacturing and construction will continue.
And these new restrictions are intended to last for 16 days. They are intended to be short, sharp action to arrest a worrying increase in infection.
Although they are temporary, they are needed.
Without them, there is a very real risk the virus, presiding officer, will be out of control by the end of this month.
But with them, we hope to slow its spread. That will help us to keep schools and businesses – including hospitality businesses – open over the winter. And fundamentally it will save lives.
So please follow these new rules. And continue to take the other basic steps that will protect you and each other.
Do not visit other people’s homes.
Work from home if you can.
Download the Protect Scotland app, if you can and haven’t already done so.
And remember FACTS.
Face coverings; avoid crowded places; clean hands and hard surfaces; 2 metre distancing; and self isolate, and get tested if you have symptoms.
Sticking to all of this isn’t easy, after seven long months it is harder than it has ever been. But it is essential. It’s the best way to look out for each other, and now more than ever, we all need that spirit of love and solidarity that has served us so well.
And hard through it is to believe it right now, all the hard sacrifices we are making will hasten the brighter days that do lie ahead. The pandemic will pass.
So, let’s all stick with it – and above all, let’s stick together.
My thanks, again, to everyone across the country, for all you are doing.
‘DEVASTATING NEWS’
Responding to the First Minister’s announcement for further restrictions for pubs, CAMRA’s Director for Scotland Joe Crawford said: “The First Minister’s announcement banning the serving of alcohol indoors for 16 days across the country – and forcing pubs in five health board areas in the central belt to close altogether – is absolutely devastating news for pubs and breweries.
“Publicans who have been operating at reduced rates, and who have already invested thousands of pounds of their dwindling reserves making their premises COVID-secure, now face 16 days without any turnover whatsoever. Understandably, they feel like pubs have become the scapegoat for the pandemic.
“The £40 million in support for the hospitality sector is welcome and necessary but the devil will be in the detail.
“Without proper financial compensation now – and longer-term financial support to help deal with reduced trade as a result of restrictions like the curfew – we risk seeing thousands of pubs, clubs and breweries closing for good before Christmas.”
LICENSED TRADE IS THE ‘SACRIFICIAL LAMB’ – SLTA
Responding to the announcement Colin Wilkinson, Scottish Licensed Trade Association (SLTA) managing director, said: “The recent introduction of the 10pm closing time plus the two-household group of six rule is having a devasting effect on the industry – closures are looming and now today’s announcement of further restrictions and temporary lockdowns will only accelerate business failure and job losses.
“A recent survey highlighted that nearly 40% of hospitality businesses were considering closure or business exit. In September, an SLTA survey of 600 on-trade premises highlighted that within the pub and bar sector, 12,500 jobs could go.
“These figures have increased dramatically in only a month. When the industry reopened after lockdown and with the then restrictive measures in place, it was estimated that two-thirds of hospitality businesses could still be viable, but only just, with one-third of businesses unable to open.
“Now that figure has flipped and in our estimation two-thirds of hospitality businesses could be mothballed or go under. Over 50% of jobs in the pub and bar sector could also be lost which will have a particularly deep impact on the employment of young people as over 40% of staff employed are under the age of 25.
“Our research already tells us that many in the industry are on the precipice of business failure and these further restriction measures announced today and the much quieter winter season approaching leads us to only one conclusion: the sector is now heading into a scenario of ‘last man standing’.
“Details of the First Minster’s announcement of a £40m financial support package are awaited, but the question is will this be enough? In our opinion the hospitality sector in general needs substantially greater and far more reaching support than has just been announced and does not come anywhere near to saving our industry.
“The SLTA will be working with the Scottish Government on how this funding will be distributed to those affected by today’s announcement.
“Responsible operators are running safe, carefully monitored establishments so in our opinion there is no need for the Scottish Government to ‘go further’ on pubs.
“Actions by governments are meant to be proportionate and evidence based and despite reference today to newly released “evidence paper” the industry continues to call on the Government to provide the evidence for infection rates stemming directly from the licensed trade.
“Industry figures suggest that there are very low infection rates of staff within our pubs and bars which suggests to us that the industry is doing everything that it can and is providing as safe an environment as possible – otherwise, if we were a major causal route of infection, this would surely be reflected in the infection rate of hospitality staff.
“It would appear again that Scotland’s licensed trade is the sacrificial lamb and paying the price for other sectors that do not operate under such restrictive measures as we have seen recently.”
The announcement by the First Minister that outdoor areas in Scotland’s pubs and bars are to remain closed was met with shock and dismay by the Scottish Licensed Trade Association.
SLTA Managing Director, Colin Wilkinson said: “The First Minister’s announcement today is a bitter blow for Scotland’s Hospitality Sector, which expected to be able to now kick-start the rebuilding of the industry.
“With the decision now delayed until the 2nd of July, operators face another anxious period for the survival of their businesses. This may also have a knock-on effect for the re-opening of indoor areas, originally planned, all being well, for the 15th of July.
“This delay, hypothetically only 2 weeks before full reopening may be possible, with social distancing measures in place, again brings into question whether these first steps, for those who have an outdoor area or the potential to have one, will actually help businesses to start recovering from this pandemic.
“With Government guidelines due to be published soon, hospitality businesses will have very little lead-in time to prepare for complying with guidance for outdoor areas, and that alone causes problems, especially on social distancing parameters, which look like remaining at 2m, and toilet provision for customers seated outdoors.
“Research shows that unless the 2m social distancing parameters are reduced, the potential reductions in capacity could be as high as 87%.
”Without question, health and safety must come before profit, but the First Minister’s comment that ‘there is emerging evidence that places such as pubs, restaurants and gyms can be hotspots for transmission” will do nothing to alleviate customer confidence in returning to our pubs and bars.
“Already a recent survey to gauge how people feel about life post-lock down, revealed that 62% of people were unlikely to return to bars and restaurants for some time yet. The challenge of rebuilding our industry just got harder.
“The need for ongoing support for the industry is now even greater with the announcement that outdoor areas will remain closed for at least another two weeks.
“Ongoing and increased support for the months ahead is essential and when the industry does start to rebuild, Governments, both north and south of the border, must not see this as a marker to further reduce support for the industry.”
A survey of 22,000 pub goers and beer drinkers across the UK polled by the consumer organisation CAMRA, the Campaign for Real Ale, has found that two thirds of people are confident to get back down the pub when their localre-open.
The survey found that 65% had confidence in going back to pubs, with only 4% saying they were ‘extremely unconfident’ about returning to their local.
The news comes as the UK Government confirmed that pubs are likely to start re-opening from 4th July and the Scottish Government stating that pubs north of the border can begin to re-open from 15th July.
CAMRA National Chairman Nik Antona said:“We know that during lockdown people have really missed going to their local to enjoy a pint with family and friends.
“It’s really encouraging hat our survey showsmostpeople are confident that they can safely return to pubs, whether that’s outside in beer gardens or inside following social distancing measures.
“As pubs re-open in the next few weeks in England and then in Scotland it is essential,they get supportfrom local communities – especially as many will face reduced trade as a result of social distancing.
“For people who can’t get to their local, because they’re shielding, and for those pubs that can’t re-open, because they are smaller or because their space isn’t suitable, CAMRA will continue to support those pubs offering take-away and delivery services while things get back to normal.
“Over the next few weeks, I’d like to encourage everyone to play their part in helping pubs get back on their feeteither by supporting them in person or from your own home. Now, more than ever, we need to use our pubs or else risk losing them forever.”
CAMRA’s beer ordering app ‘Brew2You’ to allows people to order take-aways and deliveries from pubs in their area, whilst the ‘Pulling Together’ campaign page at www.camra.org.uk/pullingtogetherlists services from pubs, breweries and cider producers across the country.
Responding to the Scottish Government’s strategy to exit lockdown measures, which state that gathering in pubs is likely to be banned or restricted ‘for some time to come’, CAMRA Director for Scotland Sarah Crawford said: “While the Government must follow scientific advice and do what is right to keep people safe, this will undoubtedly be a huge blow for pubs and breweries.
“The pub and brewing sector was among the first to be hit by the lockdown and it is set to be among the last to get back to normality. One thing many people are looking forward to when all this is over is going down the pub to meet friends and family for a drink.
If the Scottish and UK Governments do not make sure that our local pubs and breweries receive all the financial support that they need to weather this crisis, we risk not having them around at all when all this is over.”
The emergency Coronavirus (Scotland) Bill passed by the Scottish Parliament on Wednesday confirms that pubs can sell alcohol and food to take-away or for home delivery, where it is safe to do so.
The legislation clarifies that pubs across the country can continue to sell alcohol for consumption off the premises, as well as take-away or home delivery of food if this was previously provided on the premises.
Any pubs continuing to offer take-away or delivery services must adhere to the Scottish Government’s safe social distancing guidance, as well as complying with all other standard health and safety requirements.
This includes making sure that there is a distance of at least two metres between staff and any customers collecting items, and control of queues outside the premises consistent with social distancing advice.
CAMRA Director for Scotland Sarah Crawford said: “The fact that this emergency legislation puts it beyond doubt that pubs can sell alcohol for consumption off the premises, and offer food for takeaway or delivery where the pub previously offered food, will be welcome news for pubs who are still looking to offer services throughout the COVID-19 restriction.
“This will need to be done safely and in line with strict social distancing measures, but it does mean that communities who want to continue to support their local can do so. This will be especially important in our rural communities, where the local pub may be the only accessible business in the area.
“CAMRA is continuing to call on the UK and Scottish Governments to make sure that pubs of all types and sizes receive the support they need to get through the coronavirus crisis, so they can keep paying staff and are able to re-open and thrive once this is over.”
