Garden Centre launches 2022 Christmas events programme
Dobbies, the UK’s leading garden centre retailer, is gearing up to create a Christmas to remember for customers in Edinburgh and announces a magical line up of great-value festive events to get the whole family excited for the season ahead, with booking now open.
Santa’s Grotto is back and better than ever, with families having the opportunity to take part in an interactive experience in the Edinburgh store. Attendees will be greeted by Santa’s elves to walk through the snowy woodland, spotting reindeer, rabbits and more, as well as helping to pack Santa’s sleigh.
They’ll then spend time with Santa and receive a special gift to take home. Families can opt in to purchase a photograph with Santa, creating memories to last forever.
Dobbies’ Quiet Grottos will also be available on 9 December. This experience is designed to help support children with additional needs, with sound and visual elements adapted to reduce anxiety.
If you’re looking to get the whole family involved, Dobbies’ Edinburgh store will also offer a Santa Paws grotto experience. Dog lovers across Edinburgh have the chance to bring their pups to see Santa, with a special doggie gift and photo opportunity available. Children’s tickets can be added, for a full family experience.
The garden centre is also hosting its ever-popular Santa’s Breakfast experience, perfect for families and children under 10 years old. Breakfast options are available for both adults and children, including vegetarian and lighter options, with food, fun activities and a gift from Santa all included in the children’s great-value ticket price.
Dobbies’ Festive Afternoon Tea will also take place, with options to suit the whole family. Guests can indulge in three tiers of fantastic festive food, and unlimited tea and coffee refills. There are also options to upgrade with additional savoury items, hot drinks and Prosecco.
Dobbies’ Partnership and Events Manager, Sarah Murray, said: “Christmas is all about getting the family together and spending quality time with your loved ones.
“At Dobbies we want to give families an experience to remember and unforgettable memories to cherish for years to come. Nothing is more magical than Christmas time, and our interactive festive events in Edinburgh will help bring the season to life for the entire family.”
Customers in Edinburgh are encouraged to book in advance for Dobbies’ Christmas events to avoid disappointment. Customers have the opportunity to make a donation to Dobbies’ National Charity Partner, Teenage Cancer Trust, when booking online: https://www.dobbies.com/events.
Santa’s Grotto events start on 24 November, prices from £11.99 per child
Santa’s Quiet Grotto takes place on 9 December, prices from £11.99 per child
Santa Paws starts running on 3 December, priced at £6.99 per dog
Santa’s Breakfast takes place from 26 November onwards, £13.99 per child and from £7.30 per adult
Festive Afternoon Tea starts on 1 November, £13.50 per adult and £7.50 per child
Santa’s Afternoon Tea runs from 3 December, £13.99 per adult and £13.50 per child
Pop in to chat with the peer-supporters here. This group suits any mums who are breastfeeding and have any questions or experiences they’d like to share. It also suits any mums-to-be who have questions or are thinking about breastfeeding. Just pop in!
August House Price Index from Walker Fraser Steele:
Scotland’s average house price decreased in August by £225
But 31 Local Authorities have seen prices rise over the year
Shetland Islands have highest annual growth rate at 19.6%
Larger number of high-value sales in 2022 than 2021
Average house price £224,117, down 0.1% on July, 7.6% up annually
Table 1. Average House Prices in Scotland for the period August 2021 – August 2022
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments:“The average price paid for a house in Scotland in August 2022 was £224,117 – a slight decrease of 0.1%, from the price established in July.
“It is only significant in so far that it is the first decrease in Scotland’s monthly average house price since June 2021, but it is important to remember that on an annual basis, the price is some £15,900, or 7.6%, higher than it was in August 2021.
“One reason for the continued resilience is the number of sales recorded over £750k. Our data shows that some 82 sales were recorded at values over £750k during August 2022. We think this figure will increase as further sales for the month are processed by the Registers of Scotland.
“What this number of sales over £750k tells us is that “working from home” and the “race for space” continue to be important features of the current housing market, even if the prominence of the Covid restrictions are beginning to wane.
“Properties of this nature command more space to accommodate new ways of living but remain in short supply which again supports the average house price – even in the face of some meaningful economic headwinds thanks to global inflationary pressures.
“How resilient prices are over the coming months remains to be seen. Certainly, some of the recent domestically inspired spikes to mortgage affordability may yet dampen buyer enthusiasm, but today’s interventions from the new Chancellor are designed to stabilise the cost of borrowing – and there remains a shortage of desirable property.”
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
The August housing market
The average price paid for a house in Scotland in August 2022 was £224,117. This represents a marginal fall of £224, or -0.1%, from the price established in July, the first fall in Scotland’s monthly average house price since June 2021.
Although the average price fell in the month, on an annual basis the price is some £15,900, or 7.6%, higher than it was in August 2021. This annual rate has slowed from the 10.6% growth seen in June, but that month was assisted by a near £3,000 fall in prices which occurred twelve months earlier in June 2021, meaning that the base point for measuring June’s growth rate had started from a particularly low level.
As Figure 1 below shows, since the start of this year the average house price growth in Scotland has been oscillating on a bi-monthly basis, so the fall in the August rate was not unexpected.
Figure 1. The monthly rate of house price growth in Scotland over the period August 2021 to August 2022
As shown in Table 2 sales of high-value properties in the first eight months of the year are at an all-time high, with no indications that the pace of such sales is diminishing. This would suggest that the post-Covid lifestyle changes associated with “working from home” and a “race for space” remain as motivation for would be home-movers, with competition for the right property continuing to keep prices high.
The commentary in this release relates to the August housing market in Scotland. This does of course pre-date the somewhat remarkable events of September and October, with a Mini-Budget having been delivered on 23rd September and a new Chancellor being installed on 13th October.
As noted in this release, the housing market has shown considerable resilience over recent months, in spite of predictions otherwise. Although interest rates have been edging up, it is clear there is still considerable buying power and appetite in the market. Our task will be to report on what happens to completion prices based on cash and mortgaged transactions across Scotland. There will be much on which to reflect.
Transactions analysis
Figure 2 below shows the monthly transaction count for purchases during the period January 2015 to August 2022, based on RoS (Registers of Scotland) figures for the Date of Entry (August 2022 totals are based on RoS Application dates).
The effect of the Covid pandemic – which started in March 2020 – can be clearly seen from the graph. Housing transactions in April 2020 plummeted with the arrival of the pandemic, to be followed by a slow rise in sales as confidence began to return. Then followed a period when sales exceeded previous levels, from September 2020 to March 2021, as lifestyle changes and the LBTT tax-holiday pushed up demand – especially for properties with space to allow for working from home.
The March 2021 peak is also clearly visible, which coincided with the last month of the LBTT tax-holiday. The final month typically creates a peak in transactions, as purchasers rush to take advantage of the tax-holiday before the end of the month, after which time the tax savings come to an abrupt halt.
Sales from June 2021 onward also tended to be higher than during the previous five years (2015 – 2019), as demand for larger properties with space and potential holiday lets continued to stimulate the market. It is only from the start of 2022 that demand appears to have weakened marginally, with sales from March 2022 to July 2022 no longer exceeding those of the previous years, although Table 2 on the next page indicates that the demand for properties priced in excess of £750k continues to be strong.
In the graph below, the August 2022 total shows a small increase in transactions compared to July 2022, but the figure for the month remains an estimate, so at this stage not too much weight should be given to the predicted rise in sales.
RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors), in its August 2022 Residential Market Survey, is continuing to point to an easing in sales market activity, with metrics on demand and sales remaining in negative territory over the month. RICS do however add that that the current level of market appraisals being undertaken is similar to that seen twelve months ago, suggesting the tight supply backdrop is unlikely to change dramatically in the near future – this remains consistent with a still reasonably solid degree of upward movement in house prices for the time being.
Figure 2. The number of sales per month recorded by RoS based on entry date (RoS applications date for August 2022), for the period 2015 – 2022. (Source: Registers of Scotland.)
Scotland transactions of £750k or higher
Table 2. The number of transactions by month in Scotland greater than or equal to £750k, January 2015 – August 2022
Table 2 shows the number of transactions per month in Scotland which are equal to or greater than £750k. The threshold of £750k has been selected as it is the breakpoint at which the highest rate of LBTT becomes payable.
Table 2 shows that there were 82 sales in excess of £750k during August 2022, and we anticipate that this total will increase by another twenty-plus in number, as further sales for the month are processed by the Registers of Scotland. If this proves to be the case, then six of the eight months in 2022 will have seen a higher number of sales in excess of £750k than in 2021, which was itself ahead of all previous years. Certainly, looking at the first eight months of 2021, for comparative purposes, there were 692 sales above £750k, which have been exceeded by the 710 sales seen in 2022.
These statistics suggest that the “lifestyle changes” associated with the pandemic, of “working from home” and the “race for space”, continue to be important features of the current housing market, even if the prominence of the Covid restrictions are beginning to wane.
The five authorities with the largest number of the 710 high-value sales that have been recorded to date in 2022 are: Edinburgh (360); Glasgow City (46); Fife (39); East Lothian (36); and finally East Renfrewshire (24). From these figures it can be seen that in 2022, Edinburgh accounts for just over half of this sector of the housing market.
Local Authority Analysis
Table 3. Average House Prices in Scotland, by local authority area, comparing August 2021, July and August 2022
Table 3 above shows the average house price and percentage change (over the last month and year) by Local Authority Area for August 2021, as well as for July and August 2022, calculated on a seasonal- and mix-adjusted basis. The ranking in Table 3 is based on the local authority area’s average house price for August 2022. Local Authority areas shaded in blue experienced record average house prices in August 2022.
Annual change
The average house price in Scotland increased by some £15,900 – or 7.6% – over the last twelve months, to the end of August. This is a near £3,100 decrease over the £19,000 growth in prices seen in the twelve months to the end of July 2022 – and represents the second month in a row in which the increase in prices on an annual basis has slowed.
In August 2022, 31 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland saw their average prices rise over the levels seen twelve months earlier, the same number as in July. The one area that saw values fall over the year was East Lothian, where prices have dropped by 1.9%. In East Lothian, it is the average price of detached properties that have fallen the most over the past year, from an average £520k in August 2021 to £490k in August 2022.
The area with the highest annual increase in average house prices in August 2022 was the Shetland Islands, where values have risen by 19.6% over the year. However, as regular readers of our reports will know, the Islands frequently have the largest movement in average house prices due to the small number of transactions that take place each month, with just 21 sales in August. On the mainland, the authority with the highest increase over the year was – for the fifth month in succession – Argyll and Bute, at 17.1%. Interestingly, in August, it was “Flats” that saw the largest increase in average prices in Argyll and Bute, assisted by the purchase of a ground floor conversion of a Victorian villa in Helensburgh for £560k.
On a weight-adjusted basis, which incorporates both the change in prices and the number of transactions involved, there are six local authority areas in August that accounted for 49% of the £15,900 increase in Scotland’s average house price over the year. The six areas in descending order of influence are: – Glasgow (11%); Edinburgh (11%); South Lanarkshire (10%); Highland (7%); Fife (5%); and West Lothian (5%).
Monthly change
In August 2022, Scotland’s average house price in the month fell by some £225, or -0.1%. This is the first fall in the average house price in a month since June 2021.
In August 2022, 20 of the 32 Local Authority areas in Scotland experienced rising prices in the month, the same number as in July. The largest increase in average prices in August was seen, for the second successive month, in Inverclyde, up by 7.0%. Last month we reported that prices in July in Inverclyde had been assisted by the purchase of an upmarket flat in Greenock. This was a lower-floor conversion of a traditional 5-bedrom 1870 Victorian blonde sandstone property, which sold for £370k. In August, it transpires that a further upper-floor conversion was sold in the same street for £410k, which helped secure Inverclyde’s position as having the highest increase in average prices in the month.
At the other end of the scale, the lowest increase in average prices in August was in Stirling, at -4.9%. The third-highest priced sale of the year in Stirling had been included in the statistics for last month – a detached home in Croftamie, a village located some 25 miles to the north of Glasgow, which sold for £1.4 million. But, having dropped out of the statistics this month and with no similar property taking its place, average prices in Stirling in August dropped accordingly.
Peak Prices
Each month, in Table 3 above, we highlight in light blue the local authority areas which have reached a new record in their average house prices. In August there are 7 such authorities, down from the 11 seen in July. With average prices in Scotland falling in August we should advise that Scotland itself is no longer at a record price, the first time this has happened this year.
Heat Map
The heat map below shows the rate of house price growth for the 12 months ending August 2022. As reported above, 31 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland have seen a rise in their average property values over the last year, the one exception being East Lothian. The highest increase on the mainland over the twelve months to August 2022 was in Argyll and Bute at 17.1%. 14 of the 32 local authority areas had price growth in excess of 10.0% – two less than in July 2022.
Comparisons with Scotland
Figure 3. Scotland house prices, compared with England and Wales, Wales, North East and North West for the period January 2005-August 2022
Figure 4. A comparison of the annual change in house prices in Scotland, England and Wales, Wales, North East and North West for the period January 2005–August 2022
Scotland’s Eight Cities
Figure 5. Average house prices for Scotland’s eight cities from June 2021–August 2022
Figure 6. Average house prices for Scotland’s eight cities August 2022
RESPECT!, an exciting new exhibition, has opened at the Museum of Edinburgh.The exhibition is a celebration of the culture of Caribbean Scottish people through museum objects, poetry and film and has been created in collaboration with the Edinburgh Caribbean Association.
The exhibition explores what it is like to grow up in the Caribbean, what it means to be Caribbean, links with Scotland and how Caribbean food and music has influenced British culture. The items on display have been chosen by members of the Edinburgh Caribbean Association to share their stories with museum visitors. A Spotify playlist has also been created so visitors can enjoy a full range of Caribbean music.
The exhibition is part of a £250,000 community-led collections research project, Exchange, funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council in partnership with the National Museums Scotland and Royal Museums Greenwich. Exchange | National Museums Scotland (nms.ac.uk)
Cllr Val Walker, Culture and Communities Convener at City of Edinburgh Council said: “Our Museum of Edinburgh celebrates the history of Edinburgh and all the communities who live in the city.
“This wonderful new exhibition has been a community led project, exploring the collections of our Museum of Childhood and the connections between Edinburgh and the Caribbean.
“Visitors to the Museum can enjoy a celebration of the culture of Caribbean Scottish people through museum objects, poetry and film and has been created in collaboration with the Edinburgh Caribbean Association. I would like to thank the association members for their time, creativity and generosity.”
Lisa Williams, Edinburgh Caribbean Association said: “It’s been a wonderful experience collaborating with Museums & Galleries Edinburgh.
“We learned a lot from each other and forged friendship and understanding along the way.”
Curator Lyn Stevens, said: “It has been a tremendous privilege to work with the Edinburgh Caribbean Association.
“The group have shared their knowledge and expertise generously with museum staff and the result is a fascinating insight into the many different Caribbean cultures and what it is like to live in Britain and maintain traditions and a sense of identity.
“I have learnt so much working with them and I am looking forward to our visitors enjoying this wonderful exhibition.”
Dr John Giblin, Keeper of Global Arts, Cultures and Design at National Museums Scotland: “Thanks to a generous grant from the AHRC, the Exchange project has allowed organisations around the UK to work with communities who have historically been marginalised in museum and gallery displays to explore experiences of empire, migration, and life in Britain through their collections.
“Many hundreds of people have come together over the past year to reveal and share a wider range of stories and perspectives, and Respect! Caribbean life in Edinburgh is the culmination of a rich, thoughtful and productive collaboration between a museum and a community group.”
Our Museum of Edinburgh and Museum of Childhood champion local Edinburgh history and Edinburgh communities. The City of Edinburgh council is working to diversify museum collections as part of the Edinburgh Slavery and Colonialism Legacy Review. New acquisitions of dolls, books and magazines have been made as part of this project to add to the Museum of Childhood collections.
The exhibition will be accompanied by a Spotify playlist Respect! Caribbean Life in Edinburgh.
A wide-ranging events programme has been arranged alongside the exhibition.
Edinburgh Division ‘remains committed to tackling the theft and reckless use of motorcycles’
Operation Soteria, the capital’s well-established city wide initiative, resulted in 36 arrests, 185 charges for a variety of offences, and the recovery of 131 motorcycles, with a total value of more than £600,000.
Whilst this intensification period has recently concluded, locally based initiative teams, response, community and CID officers continue their efforts to identify offenders, prevent and deter further incidents, and provide community reassurance.
Superintendent Sam Ainslie said: “We are aware of the negative impact and understandable community concerns resulting from the anti-social and reckless use of off-road motorcycles across the city.
“This behaviour will not be tolerated, and we have and will continue to work with colleagues, including Road Policing, to proactively prevent and address these concerns.
“Road safety remains a priority for Edinburgh Division, and notwithstanding the risk these reckless individuals pose to their own safety, their behaviours also cause significant risk to pedestrians and other road users.
“While Operation Soteria has now concluded for this year, officers across Edinburgh remain committed to tackling and reducing motorcycle related crime and will continue to work to ensure offenders are dealt with robustly.
“To allow us to target our activities, I would encourage communities to report incidents via 101, and should anyone have information as to the identity of those placing communities at risk, this can be provided anonymously via Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.”
Superintendent Ainslie added: “In addition to enforcement, a key element of our work involves crime prevention, education and community engagement and reassurance.
“We understand the impact on the both the biker and wider community, and we have and will continue to work with them.
“As an example, we have been working with a range of partners across our established networks, including the tourism sector, both locally and across Europe, raising awareness and discussing security and prevention opportunities”
All bird keepers must implement strict biosecurity measures until further notice to keep their birds safe from avian influenza
An Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) has been declared across the United Kingdom following an increase in the number of detections of avian influenza in wild birds and on commercial premises.
This means that all bird keepers must implement strict biosecurity measures to help protect their flocks from the threat of avian influenza, regardless of whatever type or size. Introducing these steps on farm is the most effective way in reducing the risk of disease spreading.
In addition to this, a regional housing measure remains in place across Norfolk, Suffolk and parts of Essex, where keepers must house their flocks until further notice. Maps of the regional housing measure and national AIPZ are in our declarations.
The UK has faced its largest ever outbreak of bird flu with over 190 cases confirmed across the country since late October 2021. Check the list of confirmed avian influenza cases.
These measures will remain in place until further notice, and will be kept under regular review as part of the government’s work to monitor and manage the risks of avian influenza.
The wild bird risk across Great Britain has increased from medium to high and the risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity has moved up to medium.
The risk to poultry with poor biosecurity has been increased to high, in light of the increased number of infected premises observed during September and October and the distance of some of these, as well as wild bird cases, from the coast.
All bird keepers must now follow enhanced measures at all times to prevent the risk of future outbreaks.
Dr Christine Middlemiss, the UK’s Chief Veterinary Officer, said: “We are seeing a growing number of bird flu cases on commercial farms and in backyard birds across the country driven by high levels of disease within wild birds.
“Unfortunately we expect the number of cases to continue to rise over the coming months as migratory birds return to the UK, bringing with them further risk of disease that can spread into our kept flocks.
“We’re taking action already by implementing a national Avian Influenza Prevention Zones and housing measures in the worst-affected areas, but it is important that all bird keepers – wherever they are in the country – ensure that cleanliness and hygiene are at the forefront of their minds to keep their flocks safe and limit the impact of the outbreak.”
Public health advice remains that the risk to human health from the virus is very low and food standards bodies advise that avian influenzas pose a very low food safety risk for UK consumers. Do not touch or pick up any dead or sick birds that you find and instead report them to the Defra helpline on 03459 33 55 77. There is no impact on the consumption of properly cooked poultry products, including eggs.
All poultry gatherings, including at fairs, shows and markets, remain banned, due to a large number of flocks mixing together and the risk posed by any infections spreading across the country.
Avian influenza is in no way connected to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and is not carried in poultry or captive birds.
In a joint statement, the Chief Veterinary Officers for England, Scotland and Wales said: “Bird keepers have faced the largest ever outbreak of avian flu this year and with winter brings an even more increased risk to flocks as migratory birds return to the United Kingdom.
“Scrupulous biosecurity and hygiene measures are the best form of defence, which is why we have declared an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) across Great Britain, meaning that all bird keepers must take action to help prevent the disease spreading to more poultry and other domestic birds.
“The introduction of an AIPZ means that regardless of whether you keep a few birds or thousands, you are legally required to meet enhanced biosecurity requirements to protect your birds from this highly infectious disease.”
The introduction of an AIPZ follows a decision to raise the risk level for avian influenza incursion in wild Birds in Great Britain from ‘medium’ to ‘high’.
For poultry and other captive birds the risk level has been raised from ‘medium’ to ‘high’ at premises where biosecurity is below the required standards, and from ‘low’ to ‘medium’ where stringent biosecurity measures are applied.
Advice to poultry keepers
All bird keepers must keep a close watch on them for signs of disease and maintain good biosecurity at all times. If you have any concerns about the health of your birds, seek prompt advice from your vet.
All bird keepers (whether they are pet birds, a commercial farm or just a few birds in a backyard flock) must remain vigilant and help prevent avian influenza by:
cleanse and disinfect clothing, footwear, equipment and vehicles before and after contact with poultry and captive birds – if practical, use disposable protective clothing
reduce the movement of people, vehicles or equipment to and from areas where poultry and captive birds are kept, to minimise contamination from manure, slurry and other products, and use effective vermin control
keep records of mortality, movement of poultry and poultry products and any changes in production
thoroughly clean and disinfect housing on a continuous basis
keep fresh disinfectant at the right concentration at all farm and poultry housing entry and exit points
minimise direct and indirect contact between poultry and captive birds and wild birds, including making sure all feed and water is not accessible to wild birds
prevent access by poultry to ponds and watercourses and ensure that birds are kept in fenced or enclosed areas
It is a legal requirement for bird keepers in the national AIPZ to take these biosecurity measures.
If you suspect any type of avian influenza in poultry or captive birds you must report it immediately by calling the Defra Rural Services Helpline on 03000 200 301. In Scotland, contact your local Field Services Office. Failure to do so is an offence.
THIS week the government replaced one catastrophic plan with another (writes TUC’s GEOFF TILY). A new course to placate financial markets is traded off against likely massive hits to household budgets and fears about the future.
Support for energy bills was cut, public services already stretched beyond breaking point will be hit again, little was offered on soaring borrowing and mortgage costs, and nothing about already deeply inadequate benefits and universal credit falling further behind inflation.
There is another way to deliver an economy that works for working people, but the government couldn’t be further from it,
Dealing with failure
The Truss government were right about one thing, the economic policies of the past decade and more have been a disastrous failure. As Kwasi Kwarteng admitted, growth has been ‘anaemic’. In the ONS words: the UK is the only G7 economy yet to recover above its pre-coronavirus pandemic level in Quarter 4 2019. The UK has the lowest investment as a share of GDP (see our ‘companies for the people report’, Figure 7) In Spring OECD figures showed UK real wages would fall furthest of all G7 economies.
Mini budget catastrophe
But the mini budget was catastrophically wrongheaded. Truss and Kwarteng took the fundamental problem of an economy serving wealth not work and turned it into the solution. The flip side of support for energy bills, was lavish tax breaks for those least in need – under the spurious and long discredited fallacy of ‘trickle down’.
On top of this their intention was to borrow to fund this extreme project. They did so the day after the Bank of England had confirmed that they would be reducing support for government borrowing, and implementing a £80billon programme of ‘quantitative tightening’ [i.e. selling back government bonds to financial markets] from the start of October. (Regardless of anything else this revealed staggering lack of coordination on the part of both institutions – the excellent Daniella Gabor called this ‘uncoordinated class war on the British public’.)
Financial markets took fright and instead of buying started to dump government debt, but this was also intimately connected to a third factor. The complex financial strategies – so-called liability driven investments (LDI) – that pension funds have been deploying (unnoticed by most) for the past 20 years began to unravel in the face of these rate rises.
The Bank of England was obliged to step in to halt a vicious cycle – or doom loop – of bond sales leading to higher interest rates and so more bond sales. The spike in the chart below of interest rates on UK 30-year bonds shows how the episode was at least momentarily brought under control.
And in the meantime the government came under sustained assault for ‘fiscal irresponsibility’.
U-turn to a worse economy
After two U-turns (on the 45p top rate and corporation tax reductions), yesterday they U- turned on pretty much the whole thing.
But reversing a wrong doesn’t make a right, far from it.
We are now on the brink of a deep and damaging recession that threatens millions of jobs. But the latest Conservative chancellor has now announced the same basic approach that got us into this mess.
He warned of “more difficult decisions” on tax and spending to come. And immediately that “Some areas of spending will need to be cut”.
The Chancellor not only announced austerity. He not only sought once more – as did his George Osborne – to make a political virtue about imposing misery. He even invited George Osborne’s favourite adviser Rupert Harrison (now at Blackrock, one of three key institutions in LDI strategies) back to the Treasury to head a new panel of ‘economic advisers’ to deliver this reborn monstrosity.
Yesterday morning Rupert gave his City-oriented perspective on austerity
But this is a seriously misleading statement. The Osborne government did not repair the public finances. Over 2010-2019 the public debt ratio increased by 22 percentage point of GDP – the worse performance over a decade of economic recovery for a century (here).
For workers, this meant the worst pay crisis for 200 years. As Frances O’Grady spells out today, now expected (and this was before yesterday) to last at least two decades.
But the context for policy today is even more worrying than in 2010. Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve in the United States, are engaged in a forceful (their word) tightening of monetary policy.
This amounts to ending a strategy that has been in place since the start of the global financial crisis. In the wake of the last increase to 3.0 to 3.25 per cent, a Fed committee member has pointed to rates at up to 4.5 to 5 per cent. Fear of the impact of these rate rises on mortgage rates is likely common to all countries – for example in the US rates on a 30-year mortgage are up from 2.7 per cent at the start of 2021 to 6.9 per cent now.
And while in the UK the spike was brought under control, government interest rates are still seriously elevated and will carry on feeding through to mortgages.
In the UK money expert Martin Lewis has offered a grim rule of thumb: “For each 1 percentage point your mortgage rate increases, expect to pay roughly £50 more a month (£600/year) per £100,000 of mortgage debt.” The Resolution Foundation reckoned five million families would see annual payments rising by an average of £5,000 between now and the end of 2024.
Standing further back, the Financial Stability Board (Dietrich Domanski on the Today programme, 6 Oct.) have warned of the challenges of raising interest rates to deal with inflation under the conditions of the high global indebtedness that prevail today.
Likewise the IMF last week warned of “hidden leverage”, “waves of deleveraging”, and in particular the risk to ‘non-bank financial institutions’ – the latter including pension funds.
In terms of countries, first in the firing line are emerging market economies – with 20 countries “in default or trading at distressed levels”.
While the immediate trigger for central bank policies is the inflation set in motion by the end of lockdowns and Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, the scale of the dislocation reflects a wider failure to set the economy right since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 exposed deep underlying failings. Summing up, the IMF offered the chilling: “the level of risk we are flagging at the moment is the highest outside acute crisis”
As the Biden administration has argued, for 40 years the interests of wealth have been prioritised over those of workers. The economy crashed in the first place because these financial interests proved wildly at odds with the interests of the population as a whole. An economy of speculation and debt crowded out production and decent pay and work.
The chancellor’s new advisory panel puts these interests back front and centre of policymaking at the Treasury. The other members so far announced are also from the City of London, not least securing J.P. Morgan a seat at the table.
Yesterday the Financial Times reported that the Bank of England’s programme of quantitative tighten has been put on hold, likely to protect the casino capitalism around pension funds.
Ahead of the mini budget the TUC issued a plan for a budget ‘on the side of working people’. We desperately need a government that will put first our interests not those of wealth. But instead once more the interests of the city of London are put ahead of those of workers and the country.
Prospective buyers hoping to reserve a property at the popular Pennywell Living development in Edinburgh will need to move fast, as there is only a small collection of apartments left that are ready to call home.
The remaining apartments are available at the north Edinburgh development, which is delivered by regeneration specialists Urban Union, after the final batch of houses in Phase 3 sold out in 2 weeks.
Currently available is the ‘Adam’, a two-bedroom apartment perfect for those looking for their first home or looking to downsize. Starting from £191,995, this home features a bright open-plan kitchen and living area, perfect for entertaining friends. The main bedroom is spacious and comes complete with an en-suite. There is plenty of storage area including fitted wardrobes and a separate utility cupboard.
Also ideal for first-time buyers, the ‘Ross’ is a one-bedroom second floor apartment offering a large open plan living and kitchen space starting from £169,995. With contemporary specification and energy efficient living, the ‘Ross’ offers excellent storage space and is completed with a modern bathroom.
Located only a few miles from Edinburgh city centre, Pennywell Living is in a prime position to make the most of the many shops, bars and restaurants the capital has to offer. Also, with great local primary and secondary schools, and a wealth of useful amenities in the area, the development is perfect for young professionals and families alike.
Neil McKay Managing Director at Urban Union, said: “We are absolutely delighted with the past sales success at Pennywell. Given how popular properties have been at the development we really don’t expect these apartments to be around for long and we encourage potential buyers to come down to the development and get a feel for the properties in person as soon as possible.
“Prospective buyers will be amazed by the spacious apartments available which offer the home comforts and efficiencies you would expect from a brand-new home, and so much more.”
Every Urban Union home is highly energy efficient and is completed with all the features necessary for modern life, including high-quality, fully integrated kitchens and bathrooms, plenty of storage space and spacious living areas perfect for those looking for a place to call home.
Apartments at Pennywell Living are available to reserve now with just £99 reservation fee.
For further information visit the Urban Union website, call07940 992182 or email:
Responding to the latest figures showing the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh sees only 40.6% of A&E patients within 4 hours, Foysol Choudhury MSP said:“The figures for patients being seen at A&E within 4 hours in Edinburgh remain alarmingly low, even before the anticipated winter crisis hits.
“The Cabinet Secretary for Health has said that ‘recovery from Covid will not happen overnight’, but we are yet to see any evidence of recovery at all. The 4-hour figures for NHS Lothian last averaged above 90% in March 2021, while the figures for Edinburgh Royal last averaged above 90% in October 2020. The trend has been downwards since then.
“Hard-working NHS staff are doing their best for patients in very difficult circumstances, but they are being let down by long-running structural failures which remain unresolved by this SNP-Green government.
“The Scottish Government needs to take urgent action now to arrest two years of decline in our health service, or risk putting patient safety in jeopardy over winter.”
The Scottish Conservatives said: “This week, A&E waiting time figures showed 1506 patients waiting more than half a day in emergency departments.
“Hardworking NHS staff are being pushed beyond their limits and patients are suffering needlessly as a result of SNP inaction.”
Mr Yousaf said: “A&E departments are working under significant pressure and, in common with other healthcare systems across the UK and globally, the pandemic continues to impact performance.
“Recovery from Covid will not happen overnight, which is why we are continuing to work with boards on a number of measures to reduce pressure this winter.”
A new single rate for the national minimum wage to reflect the increased cost of living, and more effective employment law to protect workers’ rights underpin plans to build a fairer labour market in an independent Scotland, according to Deputy First Minister John Swinney.
Following publication of the paper Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence, Mr Swinney said the powers of independence would allow the Scottish Government to build a fairer, more equal future for all workers. This includes new measures to improve access to flexible working and better industrial relations.
Deputy First Minister John Swinney said: “Improving job security, wages and work-life balance are essential to delivering a more socially just Scotland. The UK labour market model has generated high income inequality while failing to drive productivity growth.
“Compared to independent European countries similar to Scotland, the UK has a higher prevalence of low pay, a bigger gender pay gap, longer working hours and significantly lower statutory sick pay.
“The Scottish Government is committed to Fair Work, but we could go much further to strengthen that agenda in an independent Scotland, developing a legal framework that more effectively addresses the workplace challenges of the 21st century. It would give us an opportunity to redesign the system to better meet the needs of Scotland’s workers and employers.”
Specific measures proposed in the paper include:
establishing a Scottish Fair Pay Commission to lead a new approach to setting a national minimum wage, working with employers, trade unions and government
improving pay and conditions with a single rate minimum wage for all age groups and better access to flexible work to help parents and carers
repealing the UK Trade Union Act 2016 as part of developing an approach to industrial relations which suits both workers and employers
introducing a law to help workers organise co-operative buyouts or rescues when a business is up for sale or under threat
legislating to support workers in precarious employment, and banning the practice of staff being made redundant and re-hired on reduced wages and conditions
increasing transparency in pay reporting and data to address gender, ethnicity and disability pay gaps and building on Scottish Government work to break down barriers to employment
The paper outlines how it would be easier for an independent Scotland to deal with labour market shocks.
In responding to the global financial crisis and pandemic, other countries were able to quickly draw on existing institutions and initiatives. This could include a permanent short-time working scheme, modelled on the German Kurzarbeit programme which provides compensation for private sector workers whose hours are reduced because of economic difficulty. A scheme like this in Scotland could help retain skills, reduce long-term unemployment and the associated costs and allow for more rapid economic recovery.
Job Security Councils, modelled on a Swedish initiative, could provide support to workers who have lost – or are at risk of losing – their jobs. These non-profit foundations led by social partners, employer representative bodies and trades unions, would help workers find new employment by providing a range of advice and high-quality retraining.
