How the Independence Movement is Mathematically Defeating Itself
Dear Editor,
For years, the Scottish independence movement has been shackled by a fundamental misunderstanding of Holyrood’s Additional Member System.
The persistent rallying cry of “SNP 1, SNP 2” has not only failed to maximise our representation, but it has actively handed parliamentary power to unionist MSPs. The electoral facts prove that millions of pro-independence votes are being routinely wasted.
In the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP dominated the constituency ballot, winning 59 seats. However, the regional list system mathematically penalises parties that win heavily in the constituencies.
Consequently, the SNP’s 953,587 regional list votes yielded a mere 4 list seats.
The D’Hondt formula rendered nearly a million peach ballot votes virtually worthless, allowing the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour to use their regional votes to sweep 24 and 21 list seats, respectively.
In 2021, this electoral tragedy repeated itself. Pro-independence voters dutifully followed the dual-vote strategy, helping the SNP win a record 62 constituency seats.
Yet, despite securing over a million votes on the regional list, the SNP returned just 2 regional MSPs. Over a million independence votes were essentially torched. This inefficiency directly enabled unionist parties to comfortably fill the regional lists, artificially inflating their influence in parliament.
I argue that some still argue for an “Indy 1, Indy 2” approach, assuming that backing the same dominant independence party on the peach ballot paper will secure victory. It fundamentally does not work for the Scottish Independence movement. Continuing to pile list votes onto a party that has already swept the constituencies is mathematically self-defeating.
To break this deadlock and secure a genuine pro-independence supermajority, our strategy must evolve. We must stop throwing our regional votes into the D’Hondt trap. The formula for success is clear: it has to be Indy 1 on the constituency ballot, and Alliance to Liberate Scotland 2 on the regional vote on the peach ballot paper.
Only by splitting our votes strategically can we capture the regional lists, lock unionist MSPs out of Holyrood, and finally deliver the parliament Scotland needs to secure its independence.
Yours for Scotland,
Dhruva Kumar Glasgow Region List Candidate Alliance to Liberate Scotland Former MP Candidate, Glasgow, ALBA Party
‘Sensational’ Opinion Poll Predicts Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party Breakthrough in May – Tommy Sheridan and Craig Murray set for election to the Scottish Parliament?
Find Out Now is a reputable opinion polling organisation belonging to the British Opinion Polling Council. They were commissioned by former MEP Hugh Kerr to add three specific questions to their monthly poll of Scottish opinion regarding the forthcoming election of May 7th – and the results are outstanding for the new Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party which was only officially registered with the Electoral Commission in February.
Find Out Now specifically asked voters in the Glasgow Region, the Lothians East Region and across Scotland if they would consider voting for the Scottish independence party at May’s election. Around 500 voters were polled in Glasgow and Lothians East and 1,000 voters were polled nationally.
In Glasgow former MSP and well-known independence campaigner Tommy Sheridan is the lead candidate for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party.
In the critical ‘Definitely’ of ‘Very Likely’ category 7% of voters said they would vote for the Alliance Party and Sheridan which would mean Sheridan’s re-election to Holyrood. In past elections 5% of the regional list vote has been enough to be elected and last time in 2021 the 7th list seat in Glasgow was won by the Tories on 6.1%. This opinion poll predicts Sheridan will replace a Tory to represent the Glasgow Region.
The poll across Lothians East where former British Ambassador and outspoken champion of Scottish independence Craig Murray is leading the Alliance to Liberate Scotland election challenge the result is even better.
A ‘very encouraging’ 8% of voters say they are definite or very likely Alliance voters, and that level of support will see Craig Murray elected in place of another Tory.
At a national level the level of support is also extremely encouraging for the new Alliance Party. Across 1,000 voters polled a significant8% say they will vote for the single-issue party on May 7th.
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party are promoting only one issue and that issue is Scottish independence. If the support for the Alliance stays as high as 8% or increases the new party will send 8 MSPs to the Scottish Parliament on a mission to pursue Scottish independence as the priority issue.
In most of the regional list seats around 6% of the list votes is enough to secure election and win one of the seven regional seats. With the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party running at 8% it seems an electoral breakthrough is certain.
Alliance for Liberate Scotland has four candidates in Glasgow, Tommy Sheridan, Dhruva Kumar, Gail Sheridan and Hilda McMahon.
Lead Alliance candidate in Glasgow Tommy Sheridan said:“This opinion poll is sensational for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party. We were only registered in February and are not yet widely known but our determination to make Scottish independence the primary issue is clearly attracting votes from those sick and tired of Westminster corruption and the constant exploitation of Scotland.
“Independence supporters in Glasgow know list votes for SNP don’t count for them because they win the constituency seats. This poll shows I will take a list seat from a unionist Tory. That is good news for Glasgow and Scotland.
“I will demand our independence from Westminster is front and centre of the agenda after May’s election”.
Responding to the polling which suggests he is in line for election to the Scottish Parliament Craig Murray said:“More and more independence voters realise the utter folly of giving Regional List votes to the SNP. They simply don’t count because the voting system penalises parties that do well in constituency votes. The SNP will win most constituencies which is why they win no List seats.
“By giving their List votes to the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party the independence community is blocking unionists from Labour and the Tories and racists like Reform from getting elected. They understand a List vote for the Alliance helps the independence cause”.
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party is standing in all eight of the regional list seats with over 32 candidates. They are also fielding candidates in several constituency seats in protest at the lack of progress by the SNP in advancing the cause of Scottish independence.
Pledge to Turn Wasted List Votes into Working Class Independence Voice at Holyrood
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland (ATLS) has hailed Thursday night’s packed Glasgow candidate launch at the Renfield Training and Conference Centre as “the moment Glasgow’s working class put Holyrood on notice that wasted list votes are no longer acceptable.”
Speaking to an overflowing audience, Glasgow Regional List lead candidate Tommy Sheridan argued that the old “SNP 1 & SNP 2” message has repeatedly failed to deliver additional independence representation for Glasgow on the regional list, and has instead handed list seats to Labour and the Conservatives in a city that votes Yes.
In Glasgow alone, around 245,000 SNP second votes (SNP2-Regional List Vote) across the last two Holyrood elections failed to elect a single SNP list MSP, while Labour and the Tories took all seven regional seats in our Yes city.
Sheridan pointed to the Scottish Parliament elections of 2016 and 2021, where the SNP swept all nine Glasgow constituency seats yet failed to secure a single additional regional list MSP in the city, despite topping the regional vote on both occasions.
In 2021, Glasgow’s regional list MSPs were returned as four Labour, two Conservative and one Green, but zero SNP list MSPs, even though the SNP won the largest share of the list vote.
Tommy Sheridan said: “The facts are crystal clear. In Glasgow, in both 2016 and 2021, tens of thousands of SNP list votes did not elect a single additional pro-independence MSP. Those ‘SNP 2’ votes were effectively wasted, while Labour and Tory unionists walked into Holyrood from the Glasgow list. That cannot be allowed to happen again in a Yes city.
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland exists to give Glasgow’s working class a hard, effective independence vote on the list. A list vote for ATLS is not a gesture – it is the serious business of putting more pro-independence fighters into parliament and cutting the number of unionist MSPs sent from this city.”
Independent analysis of past elections has repeatedly highlighted how large blocks of list votes for parties already dominant in the constituencies can fail to translate into list seats under Scotland’s Additional Member System, particularly in regions such as Glasgow, where one party already holds most or all constituency seats.
Second-placed Glasgow list candidate Dhruva Kumar, who chaired the event, said the campaign would speak directly to working-class voters across all of Glasgow’s communities:
Dhruva Kumar said: “Last night showed that Glasgow’s working people – old and new, from every background – are hungry for a serious, disciplined independence strategy.
“This campaign is about unity and action. When people give their list vote to the Alliance, they are turning frustration into seats, anger into votes, and hope into hard numbers for independence at Holyrood. Glasgow’s working class built this city, now we intend to help them win the power to shape its future.”
Glasgow list candidate Gail Sheridan stressed that ATLS offers determined, grassroots-rooted representation rather than careerist politics. She said: “I’ve stood with Tommy through every major battle for justice and independence in this city.
What we heard from the floor last night was clear: people are tired of politicians who talk about independence but park it the day after the election.
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland is different. We are rooted in working-class Glasgow, we are organised, and we are ready to fight tooth and nail in Holyrood for decent wages, warm homes and real self-determination. A list vote for ATLS is an independence vote that counts.”
Glasgow list candidate Hilda McMahon drew a direct line from Glasgow’s radical history to the new Alliance campaign. She said: “Glasgow has never begged for change; it has organised for it.
“From Mary Barbour to Jimmy Reid and John Maclean, our city’s heroes understood that real power comes when working people stand together. The Alliance to Liberate Scotland is carrying that flame into the 2026 Holyrood election.
“We are deadly serious about increasing the number of pro-independence MSPs and finally delivering the self-determination that the people of Scotland demand.”
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland insists that, in the 2026 Holyrood election, a Glasgow Regional List vote for ATLS is the most effective way for independence supporters in the city to turn previously wasted list votes into additional pro-independence MSPs, strengthening the voice of Glasgow’s working class at the heart of Scotland’s democracy.
ALBA Continuation Group has written to the party leadership calling for an emergency all‑members ballot on whether ALBA contests the May Holyrood regional lists or de‑registers altogether.
FM: Scots should make choices that best serve Scotland’s interests
Independence would give the people of Scotland new opportunities to improve their standards of living, according to a new paper published by First Minister John Swinney.
‘A Fresh Start with Independence’ examines how an independent Scotland would be able to improve the economy and the NHS, and tackle issues such as household finances, pensions, social security, migration, energy and defence.
The paper states that the Scottish Government has worked hard to improve the lives of people living in Scotland using devolved powers but it would only be able to fully capitalise on the nation’s potential with independence.
The First Minister said: “I firmly believe that the people who live in Scotland are best placed to make decisions about Scotland. That is the fundamental democratic and practical argument underpinning the case that we make.
“Too many people in Scotland today do not have a decent standard of living and are finding it difficult to make ends meet. That is because standards of living in the UK have improved little in over 10 years, due to a failing economic system and Westminster decisions such as austerity and the disastrous decision to leave the European Union. Scotland did not support austerity and it did not support Brexit. The reality is Westminster is not working for Scotland.
“The Scottish Government works tirelessly to use the powers of devolution to deliver the very best for Scotland. Much good has been achieved through the expansion of early learning and childcare, the introduction of free university tuition, the expansion of the rail network, the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing of alcohol, the creation of the Scottish Child Payment and many other measures.
“But Scotland needs to be able to improve the opportunities available to our people, our communities and our businesses. Scotland needs to build a stronger, more inclusive economy that works for all. Those possibilities would only be available to Scotland with the fresh start of independence.
“We have shown that when we have the power to decide for ourselves, we find solutions and make choices that best serve Scotland’s interests. I believe Scotland can and will become a successful independent country, with a more dynamic economy and a fairer society.”
The Scottish Conservatives don’t agree, oddly enough:
The Edinburgh Union will host its inaugural debate on Monday 22 September, with a panel of senior Scottish politicians debating the motion: This House Believes Scotland Should Be Independent.
The debate will feature Fergus Ewing MSP and Ben Macpherson MSP, representing the case for independence, opposite Baroness Annabel Goldie, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, and Daniel Johnson MSP, representing the case against.
Adding to the politicians, two student speakers will join the debate, taking opposing sides on the motion, and bringing the perspectives of Edinburgh’s student body directly into the discussion.
The debate, taking place just months ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections, promises to be a lively and timely discussion on one of the most contested questions in Scottish politics.
Founded in 2025, the Edinburgh Union, which is part of the Edinburgh Political Union, is the University of Edinburgh’s newest debating society.
It seeks to provide an apolitical platform dedicated to debate and open dialogue. With political and social conversations growing increasingly polarised, the Union’s mission is to develop an environment where ideas can be challenged constructively and where participants from all backgrounds feel empowered to engage in discussion.
This semester, the Union will host fortnightly debates in Edinburgh’s iconic Rainy Hall at New College, bringing together speakers from across the political spectrum. Upcoming motions include This House Welcomes the Legalisation of Assisted Dying and This House Believes Traditional Masculinity is Damaging to Men and Society.
Each debate will offer audience members, comprising students and academics from across Edinburgh with the opportunity to debate and challenge guest speakers from across the political spectrum.
President Finn Tyson said: ““The Edinburgh Union seeks to spark open dialogue in the capital, in a way that is not seen anywhere else in Scotland.
“We want to give students and staff the chance to engage in-person with big ideas, challenge perspectives, and form their own views through reasoned debate – all in away that reflects the diversity and voice of Scotland’s student population.
“More than a decade after the Better Together campaign’s victory in 2014, public opinion on Scottish independence remains deeply divided. That’s why we’re bringing in outstanding speakers from across the political spectrum to debate the issue – and to give our students the chance to question them directly.”
I, Dhruva Kumar, Former MP Candidate for Glasgow South, write with great concern about the publication of the latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) report.
At present, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture, with a fiscal deficit of £26 billion in 2024-25, equivalent to nearly 12% of Scotland’s GDP. The UK figure is larger in cash terms, unsurprisingly, but significantly smaller in relative terms at around 5% of GDP.
Once again, we are treated to the annual ritual of the GERS figures, paraded as though they were a true reflection of Scotland’s finances. The reality is very different.
Every year, the GERS report is wheeled out to suggest Scotland is running a deficit too large for independence. But GERS doesn’t measure the finances of an independent Scotland—it measures Scotland under Westminster rule.
GERS is not an account of what an independent Scotland would look like. It is a snapshot of Scotland under Westminster control. The figures are compiled largely by the UK Treasury, riddled with estimates and assumptions, and loaded with spending on projects that bring no benefit to Scots – from HS2 in England to Trident nuclear weapons on the Clyde.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s vast revenues from oil, gas, whisky, renewables, and exports are understated, or simply swallowed up into UK-wide accounts. The result is a manufactured “deficit” that is then used to tell us we are “too poor” to be independent.
If Ireland had listened to London’s version of its accounts in 1922, it would never have left the Union. Today, Ireland is more prosperous than the UK. The lesson is clear: the only deficit Scotland truly suffers is the deficit of self-government.
We will not accept Westminster’s rigged figures as gospel. Scotland is one of the most resource-rich nations in Europe. With independence, we can build an economy designed for our people, instead of living with a balance sheet designed to keep us in our place.
New paper sets out proposals for constitutional change
A paper setting out how the people of Scotland have the right to decide their constitutional future has been published by the Scottish Government.
‘Your Right to Decide’ sets out how, following a clear decision being made by the people of Scotland to hold a referendum, it is for both the Scottish Government and the UK Government to acknowledge and respect that decision.
The paper calls on the UK Government to make a clear commitment to respect the people’s right to choose their future.
Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson said: “Figures and institutions with very different political outlooks have long supported the idea that it is for people who live in Scotland to decide our country’s future.
“The United Kingdom is a democracy, so there must be a way by which the people of Scotland can exercise their right to decide if there should be a change to its constitutional status.
“Scotland is a proud nation and a lively democracy. As such, there is always healthy debate about the best way forward for our country.
“But we can only have that debate – we can only make a decision about our future – if we get a choice. I urge everyone, whatever their views, to ensure that the people of Scotland’s right to decide is respected.”
According to new data, 12 is the age when children in Scotland are given independence, with most parents granting new freedoms, including being responsible for a pet, going to the local shop alone, and having a mobile phone, at this age.
The research, which was conducted amongst UK parents by name label manufacturer My Nametags, found that children in Scotland are granted some freedoms earlier than the rest of the nation.
At 11, children in the country are allowed to walk to school alone but children in the rest of the UK must wait until age 12.
Similarly, children in Scotland are trusted to stay home alone, use the internet without supervision, and have their own bank card by age 12, a year earlier than the national average.
The data also shows differences between families living in a city compared with those in the countryside. Across the UK, children living in the countryside experience freedom a year earlier than those in urban areas, on average. For instance, children in rural areas can play outside alone by age 11, whilst those in cities must wait until age 12.
The research also investigated the impact of mobile phones on modern children’s independence. Whilst 51% of parents in the UK feel more comfortable allowing their children independence outside of the home because they carry a phone, the vast majority of parents are afraid of the risks posed by unsupervised mobile use. In fact, online bullying (80%) and online predators (83%) are now the top risks feared by parents.
Online habits are also the most likely to lead to regret, with personal mobiles and social media access the top freedoms parents wish they had waited longer to allow. This is often due to pressure from other families, with one in six feeling pushed into granting independence earlier than they feel comfortable by other parents.
Yet, despite concerns about the risks involved, 75% of parents aim to give their children independence at the same age or younger than they did when they were a child.
Lars B. Andersen, Managing Director at My Nametags, commented: “We support parents as they prepare their children for new milestones, from starting nursery as toddlers, to heading off to secondary school. So, we were interested to find out more about attitudes towards independence amongst UK families.
“The data shows that many parents opt to grant their children more freedom around the time they start secondary school. But, it’s clear this isn’t an easy decision, with families weighing up the risks and benefits, whilst also grappling with external pressures.
“And it’s no surprise, granting a child independence is one of the most challenging aspects of parenthood. But it’s also one of the most rewarding. We hope this research makes parents feel less alone as they embark on this journey, and offers some useful insight to help them make the right decision for their family.”
Scotland’s former First Minister Alex Salmond died of a suspected heart attack yesterday while on a speaking engagement in North Macedonia. The Alba Party leader, the man who lead the independence movement for many years, was 69.
Mr Salmond was a political giant, by far the foremost politician of his generation in Scotland, and while his fallout with the Scottish National Party in recent years is well documented his death is a massive loss to the independence movement.
As often happens in the sometimes grubby world of politics, former political opponents and colleagues – many of whom had latterly plotted and briefed against Mr Salmond – have come forward with words of praise for the former leader.
In a message issued by Buckingham Palace, King Charles said: “My wife and I are greatly saddened to hear of the sudden death of Alex Salmond.
“His devotion to Scotland drove his decades of public service.
“We extend our deep condolences to his family and loved ones at this time.”
Commenting on news that the former First Minister and SNP Leader Alex Salmond has died, First Minister John Swinney said: “I am deeply shocked and saddened at the untimely death of the former First Minister Alex Salmond and I extend my deepest condolences to Alex’s wife Moira and to his family.
“Over many years, Alex made an enormous contribution to political life – not just within Scotland, but across the UK and beyond.
“Alex worked tirelessly and fought fearlessly for the country that he loved and for her Independence. He took the Scottish National Party from the fringes of Scottish politics into Government and led Scotland so close to becoming an Independent country.
“There will be much more opportunity to reflect in the coming days, but today all of our thoughts are with Alex’s family, and his many friends and right across the political spectrum.”
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “For more than 30 years, Alex Salmond was a monumental figure of Scottish and UK politics. He leaves behind a lasting legacy.
“My thoughts are with those who knew him, his family, and his loved ones. On behalf of the UK government I offer them our condolences today.”
Former Prime Minister David Cameron said: “We disagreed about many things, but there is no doubt that Alex Salmond was a giant of Scottish and British politics.
“Hugely passionate about the causes he championed, he was one of those rare politicians with both enormous charisma and genuine conviction, who always held the room.
“No matter your own point of view, you couldn’t help but stop and listen to his every word. He might have had his faults, but he was as sharp as a button with a strategic mind – I once said you had to count your fingers on the way out of a meeting with Alex! He has been taken far too young; my thoughts and prayers are with Alex’s family.”
Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament Alison Johnstone said: “On behalf of @ScotParl, on the sad news of the passing of Rt Hon Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland from 2007 to 2014, my most sincere condolences to his wife Moira, his family and friends at this difficult time. Our thoughts are with you.
“Flags at the Parliament have been lowered as a mark of respect.”
Nicola Sturgeon has also paid tribute to her former SNP colleague and political mentor Alex Salmond.
The pair were almost inseperable for more than three decades as they helped transform the Nationalists from a noisy fringe movement into what became an impressive election-winning machine.
The pair were also the driving force behind the 2014 independence referendum and the campaign for a Yes vote.
But there was a dramatic parting of the ways for the Indy ‘dream team’ after allegations of sexual assault were made against Salmond by several women, which led to a criminal trial in 2020. Alex Salmond was cleared on all charges, and questions remain over some aspects of the case against Salmond.
Ms Sturgeon said: “I am shocked and sorry to learn of Alex Salmond’s death. “Obviously, I cannot pretend that the events of the past few years which led to the breakdown of our relationship did not happen, and it would not be right for me to try.
“However, it remains the fact that for many years Alex was an incredibly significant figure in my life. He was my mentor, and for more than a decade we formed one of the most successful partnerships in UK politics.
“Alex modernised the SNP and led us into government for the first time, becoming Scotland’s fourth First Minister and paving the way for the 2014 referendum which took Scotland to the brink of independence.
“He will be remembered for all of that. My thoughts are with Moira, his wider family and his friends.”
Former Westminster colleague Joanna Cherry said: “I am devastated to hear that Alex Salmond has died. He was one of the most talented politicians of his generation, and, by any measure, the finest First Minister our country has had. He changed the face of Scottish politics.
“Sadly, he was ill used by some of his former comrades, and I am sorry that he has not lived to see his vindication. I shall remember him as an inspiration and a loyal friend. My heartfelt condolences go to Moira, his family, and all who loved him.”
City of Edinburgh Council leader Cllr Cammy Day said:
ALBA Party MSP Ash Regan tweeted: “A tour de force in politics, who took us close to independence. Alex had the nation believe in itself.
“My thoughts to his family, friends and all those who he inspired to dream. ”
Journalist and independence campaigner Lesley Riddoch commented: “Maybe naysayers will think Alex Salmond’s death marks an end to the campaign for independence. I’d suggest it’s quite the opposite.
“The responsibility has been handed on to everyone who would now vote Yes. And the baton has been handed over to new generations.”
