In its pre-budget scrutiny report published today, the committee says there is “little evidence” that medium and long-term financial planning is taking place.
While some of the report’s conclusions are critical, the committee welcomes recent progress on the Scottish Government’s public service reform programme, saying it is encouraged by the focus on preventative and early intervention approaches.
The committee also welcomes the Finance Secretary’s commitment to consider what more can be done to support research and development within Scotland’s universities, with a view to boosting innovation and economic growth.
Finance and Public Administration Committee Convener Kenneth Gibson MSP said:“Our committee is deeply concerned about the Scottish Government’s lack of strategic approach to managing Scotland’s public finances.
“There is little evidence of medium and long-term financial planning. Year-on-year budgeting has become increasingly challenging, with significant emergency controls being required in each of the last three years.
“We recognise devolved governments have fewer flexibilities to deal with ‘shocks’. However, many issues impacting the 2024-25 Budget – such as higher than anticipated pay settlements and increasing social security payments – could have been foreseen and mitigated when the Budget was set, last December.
“At the very least, scenario plans could have been put in place to allow spending commitments to be ‘flexed’ to adapt to fiscal strain.
“We also believe that if key strategy documents looking beyond the year – such as the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, Infrastructure Investment Plan pipeline reset, Tax Strategy, and multi-year plans – had been published when originally committed to, they would have ensured the Scottish Government was considering the medium to longer term approach as part of its budget planning.
“Repeated delays to key financial strategies have led to a perception of the government being in a state of indecision.
“Taken as a package, the recommendations in our report are designed to support the Scottish Government in achieving a much more strategic and coherent approach to managing Scotland’s finances. We urge the government to adopt these in full, placing our finances on a much more stable and sustainable footing.”
On public service reform, Mr Gibson added: “Our committee is encouraged by the focus on preventative and early intervention approaches within the Scottish Government’s public service reform programme.
“We ask the government to consider and report back to us on the potential benefits, risks and costs of introducing a new category of public expenditure on preventative spend, which we were told will establish a benchmark and enable investment to be tracked over time. This would be a welcome development.”
We want to create wealth everywhere, but first we must fix the foundations of our country.
In the first few weeks of this Government, an audit found a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. It means we’ve had to take tough decisions, like means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment. Our Budget in October will be difficult.
But we have already taken action to improve the lives of working people in every corner of the country, from unlocking planning decisions to help build 1.5 million new homes to setting up Great British Energy, to create good jobs and provide clean energy to cut people’s bills in the long term.
Here are some of the things we are doing to fix the foundations of this country.
Setting up a new National Wealth Fund
Growth is the number one priority of this government. That’s why we set up the National Wealth Fund.
It is a publicly owned investment fund that will help attract investment into our country, stabilise our economy and create wealth for future generations.
It will help unlock private investment into the UK by directly investing in new and growing industries, and help create thousands of jobs in clean energy industries.
Accelerating housing planning
We’re overhauling our housing system to meet the needs of working people and put communities first.
Our plan will include introducing mandatory planning targets to aim to deliver on our ambition to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years.
The new targets will boost housebuilding in areas most in need, to help more people buy their own homes, and help drive growth – making everyone in the country better off.
Putting passengers first We’ll put our rail system back on track with new laws to deliver for passengers.
They will improve the railways by reforming rail franchising, establishing Great British Railways and bringing train operators into public ownership.
Protecting taxpayer money
We’ll introduce legislation that makes sure nobody can play fast and loose with public finances.
A new Bill will strengthen the role of the Office of Budget Responsibility, meaning significant fiscal announcements must be properly scrutinised and that taxpayers’ money is respected.
Protecting workers’ rights
We’ll improve workers’ rights with new legislation – a significant step towards delivering this Government’s plan to make work pay.
We will ban exploitative zero-hours contracts, end fire and rehire, and introduce basic employment rights from day one.
And we’re changing the way the Minimum Wage is set so it keeps in line with the cost of living, in a move to put more money in working people’s pockets.
Launching GB Energy
Producing clean energy and creating good jobs will be our focus for the rest of the year. Great British Energy, a publicly owned, clean-energy company, will own, manage and operate clean power projects, such as wind farms, across the country.
Great British Energy will be headquartered in Scotland and paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas giants. It will invest clean power projects across the United Kingdom, such as wind farms, which are the cheapest forms of electricity generation to build and operate.
This will help make our country energy independent, tackle climate change and save families money. And investing in clean domestic power will create jobs and build supply chains in every corner of the UK.
Starmer prepares for The King’s Speech at the State Opening of Parliament on Wednesday 17 July
New laws will prioritise growth, the Government’s overarching mission for the year ahead
Legislative programme will support delivery of the Government’s first steps and missions to rebuild Britain
Focus on improving the prosperity of the country and living standards of working people
The Government will use its mandate for change to put economic growth at the heart of its legislative agenda as it prepares for The King’s Speech at the State Opening of Parliament on Wednesday (17 July).
Departments are working on more than 35 bills to deliver an ambitious parliamentary session that will be built on a bedrock of economic security, to enable growth that will improve the prosperity of our country and the living standards of working people.
Legislation will include a bill to enforce tough new spending rules, designed to ensure economic growth, while avoiding the chaos which left families with spiralling bills and wreaked misery on people’s lives.
To ensure nobody can play fast and loose with the public finances ever again, this new bill will strengthen the role of the Office of Budget Responsibility, meaning significant fiscal announcements must be properly scrutinised and that taxpayers’ money is respected.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Our work is urgent. There is no time to waste. We are hitting the ground running by bringing forward the laws we will need to rebuild our country for the long-term – and our ambitious, fully costed agenda is the downpayment on that change.
“From energy, to planning, to unbreakable fiscal rules, my government is serious about delivering the stability that is going to turbo charge growth that will create wealth in every corner of the UK.
“The task of national renewal will not be easy, and this is just the down payment on our plans for the next five years, but the legislation set out at the King’s Speech will build on the momentum of our first days in office and make a difference to the lives of working people.”
‘His Majesty’s Most Gracious Speech’ will build on the momentum of the Government’s first week in office which saw the Prime Minister and his ministerial team roll up their sleeves and get to work.
Legislation to enact announcements made this week, including the launch of a National Wealth Fund to drive investment into the UK, to a new Mission Control tasked with turbocharging UK to clean power by 2030, to opening the recruitment of a new border security command, show that the Government is getting on with the job.
The package of bills will focus on growing the economy through ‘turbocharging’ building of houses and infrastructure, better transport, more jobs and securing clean energy – helping to make every part of the country better off.
As part of the Government’s plans to empower regions to deliver change for their communities, new legislation will also help to create wealth in every community and hand the power back to local leaders who know what is best for their areas.
Scotland’s councils must radically change how they operate – particularly how they collaborate with partners – if they are to improve and maintain services to their communities.
Councils worked well with their partners to address the impacts of Covid-19. They need to implement the lessons learned during the pandemic in order to now cope with reducing budgets, growing demographic and workforce pressures, and declining performance across some services.
The Scottish Government and COSLA urgently need to finalise the planned ‘New Deal’ settlement for local government, allowing for more long-term planning, flexibility and transparency in councils’ budgeting process.
Currently, an increasing proportion of funding is ringfenced for national priorities; this constrains councils from making decisions about how to best use money to address the local needs of their citizens and communities.
Councils must now rethink how they work together, and with local partners and communities, to provide financially sustainable services whilst tackling national issues such as climate change, child poverty and inequalities. Few councils provide services jointly or share support services across different councils.
Councils also need better data in order to ensure that they can demonstrate that their services are meeting their citizen’s needs.
Tim McKay, Acting Chair of the Accounts Commission said: “The New Deal for local government, agreed between the Scottish Government and COSLA, is long overdue. Putting this in place will give councils longer-term financial stability, supporting them to make decisions and make the fundamental changes that are urgently needed.
“Councils have gone beyond the point where making savings is enough. If the change needed doesn’t happen now, some services will continue to get worse or deeper cuts will be made. This will impact communities and individuals that are already at crisis point with the effects of inequality and persistently high poverty.
“Councils need to have open and honest conversations with their communities and staff about the future of council services.”
COSLA President Shona Morrison has said that Councils are already at the forefront of service provision and are probably the most transformative and collaborative part of the public sector in Scotland.
The COSLA President also called on other parts of the public sector to be as radical and transformative as Scottish Local Government and praised how well Scottish Local Government collaborates with partners in particular.
Commenting yesterday (Wednesday) in response to the Accounts Commission Overview Report, Councillor Morrison said: “As today’s report recognises, Councils worked well with their partners to address the impacts of Covid-19.
“The report also recognises the huge challenges Councils face due to budget constraints, increased cost pressures and demand, and increases in directed and ringfenced funding. As we have all seen, increasingly difficult choices are required about spending priorities and service provision given reducing budgets coupled with growing demographic and workforce pressures.”
Councillor Morrison added: “In addition, we are working with the Scottish Government on a ‘New Deal’ for Local Government, which will enable more long-term planning, more transparency in the budget setting process and a reduction in ring fenced funding for national priorities which constrains councils from making decisions about how to best use money to address the needs of their local communities.”
She concluded: “Only on Monday of this week, in our response to the Finance and Public Administration Committee’s call for views on public service reform, we highlighted the significant efficiencies and reforms that councils across Scotland have already made in response to successive real-terms cuts to core funding for over a decade.
“We also welcomed the Scottish Government’s renewed commitment to work collaboratively with Local Government to deliver on shared priorities, including tackling child poverty and achieving a just transition to net zero.
“Today’s report from the Accounts Commission and our response to the Finance and Public Administration Committee deliver exactly the same message. Councils are uniquely placed to be the key partner in the Scottish Government’s public service reform programme and should be further empowered to better support local service delivery.”
Helping families and services through the cost of living crisis
Eradicating child poverty, transforming the economy to deliver net zero and creating sustainable public services will be the key aims of the Scottish Budget 2023-24.
Deputy First Minister John Swinney warned relentless prioritisation was needed to tackle the combined impact of high inflation, the ongoing economic consequences of Brexit and the UK Government’s plans to reduce expenditure in future years, which are projected to reduce the Scottish Government’s funding under the Barnett formula from 2025.
He said the Budget would channel support to where it was most needed while beginning a process of reform to help public services face the future with strength and resilience.
Mr Swinney said: “Families, businesses and our public finances are under sustained economic pressure and the Scottish Government has acted decisively to provide what support it can within its limited resources.
“We have allocated £3 billion in 2022-23 to mitigate the impact of the cost of living crisis, including targeted help such as increasing the game changing Scottish Child Payment to £25 per eligible child per week – a 150% increase within eight months.
“However, given the fiscal constraints of devolution, it is not possible to go as far as we would like and so the Budget will prioritise three areas – eradicating child poverty, transforming the economy to deliver net zero and creating sustainable public services.
“Difficult decisions are required and resources will be targeted where they are most needed and can secure maximum value from every pound spent.
“The economic challenges we face also require a fundamental change in the way we manage public spending. The Bank of England is predicting the longest recession for a century so this Budget will set in motion reforms that will place our finances and public services on a more sustainable and resilient footing for the future.
“This is a time for firm leadership and bold decision making. Steps we take now will help ensure Scotland emerges from the current crisis a stronger, fairer, greener country.”
The Scottish Budget 2023-24 will be presented to the Scottish Parliament on Thursday, 15 December.
COSLA launched its campaign last week in advance of the Scottish Budget on 15 December – an ‘SOS call’ to Save our Services.
It is a rallying call, telling communities everything they need to know about the impact of the Scottish Government’s forthcoming budget on our council services, and our communities in the coming year.
COSLA says the SOS call reflects the extremely precarious financial situation in which Councils in Scotland find themselves, during a particularly challenging period. This is as a consequence of real-term cuts to the core budgets of Scotland’s 32 Councils over recent years.
The call comes ahead of the Deputy First Minister outlining the Scottish Budget on December 15th but reflects the reality of what the government set out in its spending plans last May.
COSLA’s President Councillor Shona Morrison said: “There are many areas in which Local and Scottish Government work together for our communities and I fully appreciate that money is extremely tight – all Governments are having to cope with rising inflation and fuel costs
“However, with little room left to manoeuver, the Scottish Government’s spending plans as they stand will see Council services either significantly reduced, cut or stopped altogether. 70% of Local Government’s budget is spent on staffing, so it is inevitable that current spending plans will lead to job losses. The very serious impact of this scenario is that the critical work council staff do on prevention and early intervention will reduce significantly.
COSLA’s Vice President Councillor Steven Heddle said: “In May, the ‘flat cash’ plans looked difficult for us. Today, with prices increasing across the board, including energy costs, and inflation sitting at almost 10% and at risk of rising still further, Local Government is now on extremely dangerous ground.
“Make no mistake, what we will now face is Councils struggling to deliver even the basic, essential services that communities rely on. To put this into perspective, the estimated £1bn gap for councils in 23/24 is the equivalent of the entire budget for early learning and childcare across Scotland or 17,500 teachers. A funding gap of this magnitude will have an impact on all our communities, with the most vulnerable who rely on these services suffering the worst consequences.”
COSLA’s Resources Spokesperson Councillor Katie Hagmann concluded: “We are at a crisis point like never before – the impact for communities is serious and needs to be reconsidered.
“The financial impacts for other parts of the public sector are also serious. When councils can’t focus spend on prevention, for example on preventing ill-health, services like the NHS will end up spending significantly more money when issues become more serious.
“Directors of Finance across Scotland’s Councils are sufficiently concerned about the financial sustainability of councils that they have written to the Deputy First Minister outlining their concerns.
“This really is an SOS call from Scotland’s Councils –people in communities across Scotland will be pulled into further poverty and uncertainty without adequate funding for the vital services that support them”.
The Chancellor will make a statement at 11am, bringing forward measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan that will support fiscal sustainability.
He will also make a statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.
This follows the Prime Minister’s statement on Friday, and further conversations between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor over the weekend, to ensure sustainable public finances underpin economic growth.
The Chancellor will then deliver the full Medium-Term Fiscal Plan to be published alongside a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on 31 October.
The Chancellor met with the Governor of the Bank of England and the Head of the Debt Management Office last night to brief them on these plans.
That racket you hear is those infamous Mini-Budget economic plans being put through the shredder – Ed. …
UPDATE: The Chancellor of The Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has today, Monday 17 October, brought forward a number of measures from 31 October’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan:
Changes designed to ensure the UK’s economic stability and provide confidence in the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline
Basic rate of income tax to remain at 20% until economic conditions allow for it to be cut, IR35 and dividend tax rate reforms no longer going ahead
Treasury-led review of energy support after April 2023 launched
Following conversations with the Prime Minister, the Chancellor has taken these decisions to ensure the UK’s economic stability and to provide confidence in the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline.
The Chancellor made clear in his statement that the UK’s public finances must be on a sustainable path into the medium term.
Today’s announcement represents another down payment following the reversal of the corporation tax cut announced on Friday 14 October by the Prime Minister. The Chancellor will publish the government’s fiscal rules alongside an OBR forecast, and further measures, on 31 October.
In his statement the Chancellor announced a reversal of almost all of the tax measures set out in the Growth Plan that have not been legislated for in parliament.
The following tax policies will no longer be taken forward:
Cutting the basic rate of income tax to 19% from April 2023. While the government aims to proceed with the cut in due course, this will only take place when economic conditions allow for it and a change is affordable. The basic rate of income tax will therefore remain at 20% indefinitely. This is worth around £6 billion a year.
Cutting dividends tax by 1.25 percentage points from April 2023. The 1.25 percentage points increase, which took effect in April 2022, will now remain in place. This is valued at around £1 billion a year.
Repealing the 2017 and 2021 reforms to the off-payroll working rules (also known as IR35) from April 2023. The reforms will now remain in place. This will cut the cost of the government’s Growth Plan by around £2 billion a year.
Introducing a new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors to Great Britain. Not proceeding with this scheme is worth around £2 billion a year.
Freezing alcohol duty rates from 1 February 2023 for a year. Not proceeding with the freeze is worth approximately £600 million a year. The next steps of the Alcohol Duty Review announced in Growth Plan 2022 will continue as planned. The alcohol duty uprating decision and interactions with the wider reforms to alcohol duties under the Alcohol Duty Review will be considered in due course.
This follows on from the previously announced decisions not to proceed with the Growth Plan proposals to remove the additional rate of income tax and to cancel the planned increase in the corporation tax rate.
Taken together, these changes are estimated to be worth around £32 billion a year.
The government’s reversal of the National Insurance increase and the Health and Social Care Levy, and the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax, will remain benefitting millions of people and businesses. The £1 million Annual Investment Allowance, the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme and the Company Share Options Plan will also continue to further support business investment.
Energy bills support review
The government has announced unprecedented support within its Growth Plan to protect households and businesses from high energy prices. The Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Relief Scheme are supporting millions of households and businesses with rising energy costs, and the Chancellor made clear they will continue to do so from now until April next year.
However, looking beyond April, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have agreed that it would be irresponsible for the government to continue exposing the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices.
A Treasury-led review will therefore be launched to consider how to support households and businesses with energy bills after April 2023. The objective of the review is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need. The Chancellor also said in his statement that any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected, and that the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.
The government is prepared to act decisively and at scale to regain the country’s confidence and trust. The Chancellor stated in his speech that there will be more difficult decisions to take on both tax and spending. This means doing what is needed to lower debt in the medium term and to ensure that taxpayers’ money is well spent, putting public finances on a sustainable footing.
In light of this, government departments will be asked to find efficiencies within their budgets. The Chancellor is expected to announce further changes to fiscal policy on 31 October to put the public finances on a sustainable footing.
Further information
Table of total benefit of tax policy reversals:
Policy (£bn)
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
Re-instate plans to raise Corporation Tax to 25% from April 2023
+2.3
+12.4
+16.6
+17.6
+18.7
Suspend 1p reduction in the basic rate of income tax
0
+5.3
+5.9
+5.8
+5.9
Maintain additional rate of income tax
+2.4
-0.6
+0.8
+2.2
+2.1
Maintain 1.25 percentage point increase in dividends tax rates
0
+1.4
-1.0
+1.1
+0.9
Maintain 2017 and 2021 reforms to off-payroll working rules (also known as IR35)
0
+1.1
+1.4
+1.7
+2.0
Cancel VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors to Great Britain
0
0
+1.3
+2.0
+2.1
Cancel one year freeze to alcohol duty rates
+0.1
+0.5
+0.6
+0.6
+0.6
Total
+4.7
+20.1
+25.4
+30.9
+32.3
Costings in the table are as set out in the Growth Plan 2022 – except for the 1p reduction in the basic rate of income tax, which is the costing from Spring Statement 2022 as adjusted in the Growth Plan 2022. Final costings will be set out as part of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 31 October. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
THE CHANCELLOR’s STATEMENT:
A central responsibility for any Government is to do what is necessary for economic stability.
This is vital for businesses making long-term investment decisions and for families concerned about their jobs, their mortgages, and the cost of living.
No government can control markets, but every government can give certainty about the sustainability of public finances and that is one of the many factors influencing how markets behave.
And for that reason, although the Prime Minister and I are both committed to cutting corporation tax on Friday she listened to concerns about the mini budget and confirmed we will not proceed with the cut to Corporation Tax announced.
The government has today decided to make further changes to the mini budget.
And to reduce unhelpful speculation about what they are, we have decided to announce these ahead of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, which happens in two weeks.
I will give a detailed statement to Parliament and answer questions from Members of Parliament.
But because these decisions are market sensitive, I have agreed with the Speaker the need to give an early, brief summary of the changes which are all designed to provide confidence and stability.
Firstly, we will reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the Growth Plan three weeks ago that have not started Parliamentary legislation.
So whilst we will continue with the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy and Stamp Duty changes we will no longer be proceeding with:
The cut to dividend tax rates.
The reversal of off-payroll working reforms introduced in 2017 and 2021.
The new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors.
Or the freeze on alcohol duty rates.
Secondly, the government’s current plan is to cut the basic rate of income tax to 19% from April 2023.
But at a time when markets are rightly demanding commitment to sustainable public finances, it is not right to borrow to fund this tax cut.So I have decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain at 20% and it will do so indefinitely, until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut.
Taken together with the decision not to cut Corporation Tax, and restoring the top rate of income tax the measures I’ve announced today will raise, every year, around £32bn.
Finally, the biggest single expense in the Growth Plan was the Energy Price Guarantee.
This is a landmark policy supporting millions of people through a difficult winter and today I want to confirm that the support we are providing between now and April next year will not change.
But beyond that, the Prime Minister and I have agreed it would not be responsible to continue exposing public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices.So I am announcing today a Treasury-led review into how we support energy bills beyond April next year.
The objective is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need.
Any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected.
And the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.
The most important objective for our country right now is stability.
Governments cannot eliminate volatility in markets, but they can play their part, and we will do so because instability affects the prices of things in shops, the cost of mortgages, and the value of pensions.
There will be more difficult decisions to take on both tax and spending as we deliver our commitment to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term.
All departments will need to redouble their efforts to find savings, and some areas of spending will need to be cut.
But, as I promised at the weekend our priority in making the difficult decisions that lie ahead will always be the most vulnerable.
And I remain extremely confident about the UK’s long term economic prospects as we deliver our mission to go for growth.
But growth requires confidence and stability, and the United Kingdom will always pay its way.
This Government will therefore make whatever tough decisions are necessary to do so.
REACTION:
Commenting on the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal statement today (Monday), TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “The Conservatives drove the UK economy over a cliff. Hunt slamming the gears into reverse now won’t help families and businesses already hit by soaring borrowing costs.
“People needed reassurances today. Instead, they got more uncertainty – about energy bills, about our public services, and about whether universal credit and benefits will rise with inflation.
“We are now on the brink of a deep and damaging recession that threatens millions of jobs. But the latest Conservative Chancellor still has the same basic approach that got us into this mess.
“The Chancellor should have announced a boost to universal credit and pensions, and a comprehensive plan to get wages rising faster for everyone. And he should have announced a much higher windfall tax on oil and gas giants.”
On the announcement of a review of support for families and businesses with energy costs beyond April 2023, she added: “Families and businesses now face months of worry. There is going to be less help with bills – but no-one knows who will lose out, by how much, or whether there will finally be a programme to fix Britain’s cold and draughty homes. This is not the reassurance working families need.”
Director of Policy & Communications at Independent Age, John Palmer, said: “Older people living on low and modest incomes were hoping to be reassured today, but frustratingly the Chancellor’s statement posed more questions than answers.
“Instead of ensuring stability, today only provided uncertainty. The review of the Energy Price Guarantee is extremely concerning. It’s no longer clear who will receive support beyond April 2023. Now millions of older people are wondering if they will be abandoned by the government and left with unaffordable energy bills and freezing homes next year.
“We know that many people in later life are already making dangerous cutbacks on heating and food. Our own polling revealed that 65% of older people plan to use less heating this winter.
“The government must ensure that its new targeted approach from next year helps older people in financial hardship, including the 850,000 older people who are currently entitled to Pension Credit but do not receive it.
“A fundamental, non-negotiable way to help older people’s incomes keep up with the price of essentials is for the government to uprate benefits and the State Pension with inflation. Today was another missed opportunity to offer this reassurance. Instead, millions of people over 65 will continue to live in fear that they will be made even poorer, when their budgets have been broken by the cost-of-living crisis.”
Will Hodson, consumer champion and founder of How To Save It commented:‘The Chancellor’s announcement that the Government will review the energy price cap in April is welcome. Supporting millionaires in paying their energy bills for two years was both morally and economically wrong.
“However, many households will be concerned about what this change means for them. The Government needs to make sure that their support is both good value to the taxpayer and provides sufficient, targeted support to those who really need it.’
UP TO £660 PER YEAR COULD BE SLASHED FROM HOUSEHOLD INCOME
In a letter to the chancellor last week, the Bank of England stated that it expected inflation to be “around 8 per cent” this spring. With Universal Credit set to rise by just 3.1 per cent in April, families with children on universal credit now face a real-terms cut of around £660 per year, on average.
This is an increase on Child Poverty Action Group’s original analysis which showed a cut of £570, when inflation was expected to be 7.25 per cent.
The £20 cut to universal credit last October plunged out-of-work benefits to their lowest level in 30 years. Latest analysis shows that the picture for families is going from bad to worse.
Without government action, families will be pulled deeper into poverty. Increasing benefits by anything less than 8 per cent risks pushing those with already stretched budgets past breaking point.
Anti-poverty charities wrote to the Chancellor last weekcalling for a minimum 7% benefits rise:
Prices are rising at the fastest rate in 30 years, and energy bills alone are going to rise by 54% in April. We are all feeling the pinch but the soaring costs of essentials will hurt low-income families, whose budgets are already at breaking point, most.
There has long been a profound mismatch between what those with a low income have, and what they need to get by. Policies such as the benefit cap, the benefit freeze and deductions have left many struggling.
And although benefits will increase by 3.1% in April, inflation is projected to be 7.25% by then. This means a real-terms income cut just six months after the £20 per week cut to universal credit.
Child Poverty Action Group’s analysis shows families’ universal credit will fall in value by £570 per year, on average. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has calculated that 400,000 people could be pulled into poverty by this real-terms cut to benefits.
The government must respond to the scale of the challenge. Prices are rising across the board. Families with children in poverty will face £35 per month in extra energy costs through spring and summer, even after the government’s council tax rebate scheme is factored in. These families also face £26 per month in additional food costs. The pressure isn’t going to ease: energy costs will rise again in October.
A second cut to benefits in six months is unthinkable. The government should increase benefits by at least 7% in April to match inflation, and ensure support for housing costs increases in line with rents. All those struggling, including families affected by the benefit cap, must feel the impact.
Much more is needed for levels of support to reflect what people need to get by, but we urge the government to use the spring statement on 23 March to stop this large gap widening even further. The people we support and represent are struggling, and budgets can’t stretch anymore.
Alison Garnham, Chief Executive, Child Poverty Action Group
Emma Revie, Chief Executive, The Trussell Trust
Graeme Cooke, Director of Evidence and Policy, Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Morgan Wild, Head of Policy, Citizens Advice
Dan Paskins, Director of UK Impact, Save the Children UK
Imran Hussain, Director of Policy and Campaigns, Action for Children
Thomas Lawson, Chief Executive, Turn2us
Sophie Corlett, Director of External Relations, Mind
Dr Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, Chief Executive, Oxfam GB
Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
Eve Byrne, Director of Advocacy, Macmillan Cancer Support
Kamran Mallick, CEO, Disability Rights UK
Katherine Hill, Strategic Project Manager, 4in10 London’s Child Poverty Network
Karen Sweeney, Director of the Women’s Support Network, on behalf of the Women’s Regional Consortium, Northern Ireland
Satwat Rehman, CEO, One Parent Families Scotland
Mark Winstanley, Chief Executive, Rethink Mental Illness
James Taylor, Executive Director of Strategy, Impact and Social Change, Scope
Irene Audain MBE, Chief Executive Scottish, Out of School Care Network
Steve Douglas CBE, CEO, St Mungo’s
Richard Lane, Director of External Affairs, StepChange Debt Charity
Robert Palmer, Executive Director, Tax Justice
Claire Burns, Director, The Centre for Excellence for Children’s Care and Protection (CELCIS)
The Disability Benefits Consortium
Dr. Nick Owen MBE, CEO, The Mighty Creatives
Peter Kelly, Director, The Poverty Alliance
Elaine Downie, Co-ordinator, The Poverty Truth Community
Tim Morfin, Founder and Chief Executive, Transforming Lives for Good (TLG)
UCL Institute of Health Equity
Dr Mary-Ann Stephenson, Director, Women’s Budget Group
Natasha Finlayson OBE, Chief Executive, Working Chance
Claire Reindorp, CEO, Young Women’s Trust
Businesses in Scotland are also calling for the Chancellor to announce new measures to help with rising costs ahead of his Spring Statement tomorrow, according to a recent survey from Bank of Scotland.
As inflation hits the highest levels seen since 1992, over half (55%) of Scottish businesses said that direct help with energy bills and rising costs tops their wish list for the Chancellor. This was followed closely by calls for a reduction in VAT, cited by two-fifths (40%), while almost a quarter of firms (23%) want increased funding to help create new jobs and develop skills.
Rising prices remain a key challenge for business. Almost half (46%) of respondents said they are concerned about having to increase the costs of goods and services and over one in ten (14%) stated that inflation is reducing profitability. Almost one in ten (9%) said rising prices had caused them to worry about having to make staff redundant and a further one in ten (9%) were concerned about not being able to pay their bills.
To help specifically with rising prices Scottish businesses are asking the Chancellor for a VAT reduction (46%), while a third (35%) have called for grants to cover rising energy costs. A further quarter (23%) called for grants to support investment in energy saving measures.
The data comes as businesses face continuing supply chain challenges, which are reducing the availability of stock (40%), causing hikes in freight costs (39%) and disruption through Rules of Origin and VAT requirements from EU suppliers (33%).
Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said:“Rising prices are causing multiple challenges for businesses across Scotland and the pressure from inflation shows no sign of abating in the near-term.
“As we wait for the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, we’ll continue to remain by the side of business in Scotland and support the country’s ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic.”
Responding to the ONS public sector finances statistics for FebruaryChancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak said:“The ongoing uncertainty caused by global shocks means it’s more important than ever to take a responsible approach to the public finances.
“With inflation and interest rates still on the rise, it’s crucial that we don’t allow debt to spiral and burden future generations with further debt.”
“Look at our record, we have supported people – and our fiscal rules mean we have helped households while also investing in the economy for the longer term.”
All will be revealed when the Chancellor delivers his Spring Statement (Budget) at Westminster tomorrow.
