Residents in north Edinburgh are being invited to help shape a key project to improve connections and public spaces in their local community.
The city council is asking people from across Muirhouse, Pilton, Granton and Drylaw to contribute to the future of Pennywell Road and its links to existing paths at Crewe Toll, Gypsy Brae, Silverknowes and West Granton Access Road.
Through the North Edinburgh Active Travel (NEAT) Connections scheme we’re proposing changes to Pennywell Road and the surrounding area. These include increasing space available for walking, cycling and wheeling, making it easier to access local shops and community spaces without the use of a car and working with members of the community to improve public areas and green spaces.
This will help to identify existing problem areas and opportunities for new crossings, green spaces or where other improvements could be made.
Transport and Environment Convener Councillor Lesley Macinnes said: This project will create a much more welcoming, relaxed environment for those travelling on foot, bike or wheelchair.
“We’ve already seen how temporary Spaces for People initiatives across the city have encouraged people to walk, wheel or cycle and we want to see this happen long-term, with the associated benefits to health and the environment.
“Of course, we want any changes to work for all the people who live and spend time in this area, which is why we want to hear what they think and where improvements can be made. By sharing their thoughts and ideas they can help shape the final design, which will make travel to nearby schools, shops and local areas much easier and safer for pedestrians and cyclists.
Interim Head of Infrastructure Delivery for Sustrans Scotland, Chiquita Elvin, said: “Despite being close to existing walking, cycling and wheeling routes, such as the North Edinburgh Path Network, it can be challenging to access them for Muirhouse and Pilton due to the volume of traffic and the focus on roads in the original design of the area.
“We want the local community to tell us how we can make walking, cycling and wheeling easier for them, be that with new path connections, wider pavements, dedicated space for cycling or new crossings. These changes have the potential to transform how people get around North Edinburgh and every opinion matters.”
As well as benefiting local residents, changes could make it easier for travel to Craigroyston Community High School, Craigroyston Primary, Oaklands Primary, Forthview Primary and the new civic centre being developed at the former Muirhouse Shopping Centre.
In addition to the Commonplace website locals can leave their feedback on maps displayed in the North Edinburgh Arts centre café.
Separate temporary measures to make cycling safer and easier on Pennywell Road, Muirhouse Parkway and Ferry Road are currently in place and have been implemented through the Spaces for People programme.
More than 50 Christmas trees have been donated and are now ready for collection, following a community-wide appeal by Ocean Terminal and The Leith Collective to ensure no one misses out on having a place to leave their yuletide presents this year.
The Gift a Tree initiative launched last month aims to find new homes for artificial trees no longer needed and following a period of quarantine – and a quick inspection by Santa – the trees are available to any family, for free, to bring a bit of extra festive cheer into their living rooms.
There are also a limited number of baubles and other decorations that have been kindly donated alongside the Christmas spruces.
The collection point is from The Leith Collective store on 1st floor of the shopping centre, open 10am-6pm Monday to Saturday and 11am-5pm Sunday.
Michelle MacLeod, General Manager at Ocean Terminal, said: “People in the community have been extremely generous and I’m delighted that we have so many trees that can now be re-homed with a new family.
“Every little helps and this form of recycling does everyone some good. The trees have been kept under COVID safe conditions and are ready to bring a bit of joy into a new home.”
Sara Thomson of The Leith Collective, added: “Giving a helping hand to another family and helping to recycle surplus trees and unneeded decorations is a great way to support the local community.
“I would like to thank everyone who has made a donation – we now have 50 trees ready to be re-homed and re-loved.”
Regeneration firm Urban Union is donating £1,500 to support homeless charities across Edinburgh this festive season.
Crisis in Scotland will receive a cash boost from the developer behind Pennywell Living, to support people homeless in Scotland this Christmas. The donation has been made in lieu of the firm’s annual staff Christmas party, with Turning Point also being recipients of the donation.
Crisis in Scotland will be using the money to help its front-line team and 250+ volunteers provide people with hot meals, personalised wellbeing packs, online activities (including entertainment, learning and wellbeing) and a telephone befriending service throughout December.
Urban Union has also embarked on a new partnership with Invisible Cities, an Edinburgh-based social enterprise that trains people affected by homelessness to become walking tour guides.
Work is currently underway on a new tour celebrating the rich history of Glasgow’s Gorbals area which is home to Urban Union’s first development, Laurieston Living.
Neil McKay, Managing Director of Urban Union, said: “Our focus at Urban Union is to not only build new homes, but to create strong relationships and support the communities in which our developments are based.
“We are pleased to be able to support Crisis as well as work with organisations like Turning Point and Invisible Cities, who carry out brilliant work supporting the displaced and vulnerable across Edinburgh and Glasgow.
“We hope our donations will allow them to continue to provide crucial and important services through what are difficult times for many over Christmas.”
Crisis’ Edinburgh Skylight centre provides expert support and advice to homeless people to help them leave homelessness behind for good. How Crisis helps someone depends on their individual needs and situation, so it could be that they help someone to find a home and settle in, work together to help them gain new skills and find a job, or improve their overall health and wellbeing.
Kirsty Potter, Fundraising Manager from Crisis in Scotland, said:“We are very grateful for this generous donation from Urban Union which will make a real difference to people in Scotland without a home this Christmas.
“It will help bring comfort and dignity to people being supported in hotels, BnBs and other forms of temporary accommodation this Christmas. Everyone deserves a home, and donations like this will help people in incredibly challenging situations access the support they need to end their homelessness for good.”
City of Edinburgh Council’s Convener of Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work, Councillor Kate Campbell said: “We’ve worked together to put our most vulnerable residents first during this crisis – but the biggest challenges are still to come.
“Making sure people can access the right support when and where they need it is an absolute priority. So it’s great to see these funds going to Crisis and Turning Point to help them help others. Particularly at this time of year”
Urban Union will also be donating funds to Turning Point Scotland which provides support for people who are dealing with mental health conditions, learning disabilities or are homeless.
The charity has led the way in its introduction of the Housing First approach to homelessness in Scotland – by granting secure accommodation as a first step in addressing the issues that led to the situation, rather than the last and being given as proof of recovery.
In addition to the donations, the regeneration specialist has partnered with Invisible Cities to train up to eight people who have experienced homelessness and develop a new walking tour proposed to launch in early 2021.
The group will undertake training to help with confidence building, public speaking and customer service skills and have the opportunity to become an official Invisible Cities guide or access further support to pursue a career path of interest to them.
Urban Union regenerates areas across Scotland to create revitalised communities through building new, high quality, affordable homes.
Across each of its developments, Urban Union aims to deliver sustainable long-term benefits to the new and surrounding neighbourhoods, with job and training opportunities, ensuring the community will benefit from the projects for years to come.
Three youth arts and civil society organisations have received a total of £223,530 to help the recovery of youth arts provision across the city of Edinburgh, ensuring employment for youth arts practitioners and creative opportunities for children and young people continue despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
Minister for Children and Young People, Maree Toddsaid: “Youth music and youth arts organisations across Scotland are playing an important role in the lives of young people during these difficult times.
“This funding will widen access to high quality opportunities for young people, allowing them to participate and engage with music and other art forms. It will also provide welcome employment opportunities to more than 200 youth arts practitioners, including freelance musicians, across Scotland.”
Genevieve Kay-Gourlay, Depute to Director, North Edinburgh Artssaid: “North Edinburgh Arts (NEA) is delighted to be awarded funding from Creative Scotland to deliver a youth arts residency programme, in partnership with Independent Arts Projects (IAP), for freelance artists and creative practitioners working across a range of artforms.
“The programme will empower freelance arts practitioners to take the lead in the design and delivery of accessible creative opportunities for children and young people living in Muirhouse and North Edinburgh.
“Artists will be supported through mentoring, advice and training, and will have access to a regular peer forum; trying out ideas as part of new or longer-term piece of research and development, whilst strengthening and broadening longer-term connections with the individuals and organisations involved.”
Paul Carberry, Director for Scotland, Action for Children said: “We are very pleased to have secured funding from Creative Scotland to undertake youth arts projects within our services in Scotland.
“This money will allow our services to deliver a range of arts projects, with the young people themselves deciding the arts they want to explore.
“This fund will also enable us to work collaboratively with a range of artists across the country, allowing the children and young people we work with to benefit from a rich and diverse creative experience to support them.”
The organisations will open for individual grant applications early in the new year.
Gaynor Milne, SambaYaBambasaid: “SambaYaBamba are delighted to be involved in this exciting new way of distributing funds from Creative Scotland directly to practitioners in the street band network.
“This will open up opportunities for freelancers to create their own youth projects, with support from our organisation. We’re really excited to welcome applications from individuals in early 2021, and look forward to seeing the new projects that emerge from this process.”
Giles Agis, Carnival and Community Manager, Edinburgh Jazz and Blues Festivalsaid: “Edinburgh Jazz and Blues Festival’s Small Grants Fund project ‘Routes to Roots’ will see a diverse range of freelance musicians, dancers, circus artists, spoken word performers, street theatre artists and carnival costume makers re-imagine Edinburgh Festival Carnival 2021 through ‘artists led’ projects.
“The selected artists will work with children and young people across Edinburgh’s diverse communities, creating new mobile performance work which will animate our annual carnival parade, or static work which will be performed in Princes Gardens after the carnival has finished.”
Lorraine McLaren, Director, Wheatley Foundationsaid: “Many people in our communities just don’t have the opportunity or the means to access the arts. We’re always keen to find new ways to support tenants and their families to take part in art, drama or music and this tranche of funding will enable us to do exactly that.
“We’re looking forward to working with Creative Scotland and artists to bring some great projects to our communities right across central and the south of Scotland.”
Iain Munro, CEO, Creative Scotlandsaid: “These vital emergency funds being delivered by Creative Scotland on behalf of the Scottish Government are ensuring that creative opportunities continue to exist for young people and across Scotland at this critical time and provide important work for freelance artists whose opportunities have been so severely impacted by Covid-19.”
Action for Children has received £50,000, Edinburgh International Jazz and Blues Festival £30,000, North Edinburgh Arts £36,025, SambaYaBamba £27,505 and Wheatley Foundation £50,000.
These organisations are five of 18 across Scotland to have received a share of share in over £690K funding.
The full list of recipients is:
Organisation (Trading name)
Local Authority Area
Funding Amount
Aberdeen City Council, Creative Learning
Aberdeen
£50,000
Action for Children
Edinburgh, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Clackmannanshire
The Small Grants Scheme is the second strand of funding to be announced as part of the Scottish Government’s £3million funding package for Youth Arts, being delivered through Creative Scotland. At least £1.2million has already been distributed through the Youth Arts Targeted Fund and £50,000 assigned to the Nurturing Talent: New Routes Fund.
Updates on all emergency funds are being published regularly on this website and publicised through media and social media communications.
Image: Zoo Arts participants, project led by Alice Betts at North Edinburgh Arts
Valneva begins first UK clinical trials for its promising COVID-19 vaccine, being developed in Livingston, West Lothian
the UK government has pre-ordered 60 million vaccine doses
follows a multi-million-pound UK government investment in Valneva’s manufacturing facilities, boosting its capacity to supply up to 250 million vaccine doses
Valneva has started UK clinical trials for its promising COVID-19 vaccine, currently being developed in Livingston, West Lothian.
Speciality vaccine company Valneva’s candidate will initially be tested on 150 UK volunteers at four National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) testing sites in Birmingham, Bristol, Newcastle and Southampton. These early phase 1 and 2 trials will show whether the vaccine produces a safe and effective immune response against COVID-19.
Should this early trial prove successful, larger clinical trials will be planned for April 2021 with over 4,000 UK volunteers testing 2 doses of the vaccine in 2 groups: those aged between 18-65 years and over 65s.
The UK government has already pre-ordered Valneva’s vaccine candidate and should studies prove it to be safe and effective, 60 million doses could be made available to the UK by the end of 2021.
This latest milestone follows a multi-million-pound up-front investment announced in August by the UK government and Valneva to expand its Livingston facility. This supports over 100 highly skilled jobs for technicians and scientists at the West Lothian site, while advancing Scotland’s vaccine manufacturing capacity.
Through this investment, if Valneva’s vaccine candidate proves successful, this permanent facility will potentially have the capacity to supply up to 250 million vaccine doses to the UK and internationally.
Valneva’s vaccine is the fifth to enter clinical trials in the UK, alongside Oxford/AstraZeneca, Imperial College London, Novavax and Janssen, whose studies are currently ongoing.
Business Secretary Alok Sharma, said: As we take the monumental steps in rolling out the first COVID-19 vaccine, we must remember that we need to have a range of vaccines available to protect the British public now and long into the future.
“Today we have more welcome news that life-saving clinical trials will begin across the country to test the safety and effectiveness of Valneva’s vaccine, which is being clinically developed right here in the UK.
“Having visited Valneva’s state-of-the art facility in the Summer, I have seen first-hand the incredible work our scientists and researchers are doing to develop this vaccine.
“Thanks to significant investment from the UK government, we are doing all we can to ensure our country has the capabilities in place to produce hundreds of millions of doses of this vaccine for the UK, and for those around the world.”
Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack said: “Today marks an important milestone not only in the UK’s fight against coronavirus but for the hundreds of staff at the Valneva facility in Livingston who have worked tirelessly over the last few months to develop this vaccine. This is a great example of the work of Scotland’s world-class life sciences sector.
“The UK government is doing everything it can to support all parts of the country throughout the pandemic including ordering and paying for vaccines for the whole of the UK. We are investing in Valvena’s manufacturing facility in Livingston, supporting hundreds of highly skilled jobs.
“With a number of other vaccines in development, this gives us all hope for the months ahead.”
The UK was the first country in the world to both procure and authorise the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, ordering 40 million doses – enough for around a third of the population. The UK was also the first country in the West to start a mass COVID-19 vaccination programme, which began on 8 December.
In total, the UK government has developed a portfolio of 7 different vaccine candidates and secured access to 357 million doses to date, putting the UK in the best position for a vaccine and increasing chances of finding vaccines that work for different people.
Chief Executive Officer of Valneva Thomas Lingelbach said: “Our teams have been working extremely hard to develop our differentiated vaccine candidate and I would like to thank them, as well as the UK government, for their dedication and support.
“While conducting our first clinical trials, we are already ramping-up our manufacturing capacities and commencing production at full-scale so that we can make the vaccine widely available across the world assuming the vaccine is safe and effective.
Interim Chair of the government’s Vaccines Taskforce Clive Dix: “Huge progress has been made in developing a successful COVID-19 vaccine. While this is very positive, we must remember there is no one size fits all approach, and we need to continue developing different types of vaccine so we can vaccinate the UK population.
“We believe that Valneva’s vaccine is promising and has the potential to tackle coronavirus now and into the future, which is why we have pre-ordered 60 million doses and are investing to help them expand their UK manufacturing facility. This will not only support them in manufacturing hundreds of millions of vaccines for the whole world but boost the UK’s resilience against possible future heath crises.
Chief Investigator for the Valneva study Professor Adam Finn said: “We are really pleased to be initiating this first-in-man phase 1 study in Bristol and continuing it in several other centres across the country in the New Year.
“This is a more traditional vaccine design than those that have been in the news recently, consisting of the whole SARS CoV2 virus that has been chemically inactivated. This kind of viral vaccine has been in widespread use for 60 years.
“Our team will be working hard through the Christmas holiday period to get the first participants enrolled and vaccinated. We are pleased to be adding further to the research already done via the NIHR in Bristol over recent months to test COVID-19 vaccines and we are really grateful to the many members of our community who continue to come forward and volunteer to take part in this important work.”
Lothian MSP, Miles Briggs said:“This is excellent news that Valneva, based in Livingston, are moving forward with clinical trials.
“The management of Covid-19 will take time and the Valneva Covid-19 vaccine will be part of the long term plan for beating the virus.
“I wish Valneva all the best with their clinical trials, so that a larger trial can be carried out early next year.”
Some of the volunteers taking part in Valneva’s clinical trials came through from the NHS Vaccines Registry, allowing the UK public to support the national effort to speed up vaccine research. Over 364,000 people have already signed up to the Registry, with more needed.
Additional information about volunteering for clinical studies can be found by visiting the NHS site to join the NHS Vaccine Research Registry.
The Registry was launched by the UK government in partnership with the NIHR, NHS Digital, the Scottish and Welsh governments and the Northern Ireland Executive in July. It aims to help create a database of people who consent to be contacted by the NHS to take part in clinical studies, to help speed up the development of a safe and effective vaccine.
Through the government’s Vaccines Taskforce, the UK has secured early access to 357 million doses of 7 of the most promising vaccine candidates, including:
BioNTech/Pfizer – Phase III – 40 million doses secured
Oxford/Astra Zeneca – Phase III – 100 million doses secured
Moderna – Phase III – 7 million doses secured
Novavax – Phase III – 60 million doses secured
Janssen – Phase III – 30 million doses secured
GSK/Sanofi – Phase I / II – 60 million doses secured
Valneva – Phase I / II – 60 million doses secured, with an option to acquire a further 130 million if the vaccine is proven to be safe, effective and suitable.
Regulations to restrict both the sale of fireworks and the times when they can be set off by the general public will be introduced for Parliament to consider in the new year.
Community Safety Minister Ash Denham announced the move as she published the Scottish Government’s response to the recommendations of an independent review group whose report was published last month.
Secondary legislation will be laid in Parliament in January which, if approved by MSPs, will place limits on both the volume and the time of day for consumer firework sales, as well when they may be set off – in time for next November’s bonfire night season.
The planned changes will apply to individuals who are buying or using fireworks for private displays, and will not apply to displays that are organised by professional firework organisers or operators.
Ms Denham said: “I am fully committed to bringing about positive change in the relationship Scotland has with fireworks. More than 16,400 people across Scotland responded to the consultation last year.
“This highlighted that fireworks can be good for communities when they are used at the right time, in right place and used responsibly.
“However, it is clear there is strong support for changing how fireworks are sold and used in Scotland, and the Review Group set out clear recommendations on what change is needed going forward. I hope the actions I have outlined reassure people that their voices have been heard and that legislation will be progressed as swiftly as possible to implement positive change.
“I fully agree with the Group that it will be important to understand the impact of these changes as they are implemented in practice, including on our emergency services, on businesses, on our communities as well as in relation to firework related injuries.”
Black and minority ethnic (BME) workers have had to self-isolate at a much higher rate than white workers, according to new TUC research published this week.
The poll, carried out by Britain Thinks, shows that more than a third (35%) of BME workers have self-isolated during the pandemic compared to a quarter (24%) of white workers.
Feeling unsafe at work
The TUC believes the research shows that BME workers are being put at greater risk of coronavirus exposure than white colleagues.
While half of white workers (49%) reported that their employer had done a Covid-Secure risk assessment for their workplace, this falls to 36% for BME workers. This is despite the risk assessment being a legal requirement.
Higher stress levels
Working during the pandemic continues to have a negative impact on the levels of stress and anxiety of two-fifths of BME workers (38%).
BME workers (88%) are more likely to have concerns about returning to work than white workers (78%).
Previous TUC analysis has shown that BME people are far more likely to be in precarious work and in jobs with higher coronavirus mortality rates than white workers, such as security guards, carers, nurses and drivers.
Unfair treatment
Almost a third (32%) of BME workers report having experienced 3 or more forms of unfair treatment compared to a quarter of white workers.
In addition, almost a quarter (23%) of BME workers report experiencing abuse from other members of their workplace, compared to 16% of white workers.
TUC antiracism task force
The findings are published today (Thursday) as the TUC’s new antiracism task force meets for the first time. It is chaired by NASUWT General Secretary Dr Patrick Roach.
The task force will lead the trade union movement’s renewed campaign against racism at work. It will engage with Black workers across the UK to hear about their experiences. And it will produce recommendations on tackling structural racism in the UK, in workplaces and in unions themselves.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “This government has been careless of the impact of coronavirus on BME lives.
“BME workers are more likely to be exposed to the virus, less likely to work in Covid-Secure workplaces, and therefore more likely to be plunged into hardship if they have to self-isolate.
“BME workers – and all workers – should be entitled to decent sick pay when they have to self-isolate, and to safe workplaces.
“The government should act to rid the UK of the low wage insecure jobs that keep many BME workers in poverty and put them at higher risk from the virus. And it should set out a real commitment to ending systemic racism and discrimination.”
Chair of the TUC’s anti-racism task force and NASUWT General Secretary Dr Patrick Roach said: “There is a hostile environment for Black workers today which means they are more likely to face discrimination in the workplace, to be in insecure jobs, and more likely to be dismissed from work.
“And, during the pandemic we have also seen how racial discrimination has resulted in Black workers being much more likely to die at work as a result of Coronavirus.
“As the Task Force begins its work, we will be hearing evidence from Black workers about their experiences of everyday racism in the workplace.
“The Anti-Racism Task Force will not hesitate to call out racial injustice wherever we find it. It will bring together a strong coalition to deliver a programme of measures to root out racism and tackle racial discrimination and injustice at work.”
– Two thirds of people feel reconnected with their community via a small act of kindness –
– Morrisons Community Champions to carry out over 30,000 acts of kindness in local communities in the run up to Christmas –
– Activity kicks off with giving away nearly 100,000 mince pies to local care homes –
– Community kindness is expected to touch the lives of tens of thousandsof people nationwide –
Morrisons is carrying out over 30,000 acts of kindness this Christmas including delivering free mince pies to local care homes, donating Rudolph carrots to local nurseries, giving away flowers in local communities, and surprising Covid-19 heroes by gifting festive hampers.
The activity is expected to touch the lives of tens of thousands of people living throughout the UK in the 12 days leading up to Christmas.
The Morrisons Acts of Community Kindness activity aims to help customers and communities feel festive this year after nearly halfof adults reported that their well-being was being affected by the coronavirus pandemic.
Research by Morrisons revealed 46 per cent of people said they are feeling more isolated and alone than they normally would. Two thirds (67 per cent) said a simple act of kindness could help them feel reconnected with their community and three quarters (77 per cent) said it would positively change their entire outlook for the day.
In the run up to Christmas, a Community Champion from every Morrisons store will venture out into their local community every day to conduct acts of kindness. It kicks off with nearly 100,000 mince pies being delivered to thousands of residents in hundreds of care homes across the country, from 8 December.
In addition to this:
10,000 key worker treats will be given to local healthcare workers, police and firefighters;
Nearly 9,000 gifts will be donated to disadvantaged families;
Over 4,000 ‘be kind to yourself’ packs will be handed out to customers;
Nearly 4,000 bouquets of flowers and mistletoe will be given away in local communities; and,
2,500 hampers will be gifted to local heroes who have played a big part in supporting their local area through the pandemic.
The activity continues Morrisons commitment of ensuring no-one gets left behind during the coronavirus pandemic.
This has included Morrisons launching a Doorstep Delivery service earlier this year where colleagues deliver shopping direct to the doorstep of vulnerable and elderly customers in the community, and a £10 million donation to restock the nation’s local food banks.
Rebecca Singleton, Community Director at Morrisons said: “Small acts of kindness go a very long way. They can make our world feel like a kinder, happier and more caring place.
“Our Community Champions are going out into their local communities and spreading some good cheer. It’s the right thing to do in this difficult year when our stores and communities have been pulling together to look after each other.”
To protect the NHS, the UK government must abandon ‘rash’ plans for household mixing
Two leading medical journals – the British Medical Journal and the Health Service Journal – have joined forces to warn that the UK’s plan to ease Covid rules over Christmas is a “rash decision” that will “cost many lives”:
Since the UK’s first lockdown in March, the government has had one (perhaps only one) consistent message—protect the NHS.
Now, with the number of hospital patients with covid-19 again on the rise, and a third wave almost inevitable, the New Year is likely to see NHS trusts facing a stark choice: be overwhelmed or stop most elective and non-urgent work. Rather than lifting restrictions over Christmas as currently planned, the UK should follow the more cautious examples of Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.
By and large the NHS has coped well with the additional caseload from covid-19 patients during the autumn. The second wave began to hit hospitals at the start of September. Government figures report 451 inpatients with covid-19 in England on 2 September.1 Over the ensuing 10 weeks, the numbers rose steadily and then rapidly, peaking at a reported 14 712 inpatients in England on 23 November.
If the third wave turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as the second wave, the health service should manage. But this will be the case only if the third wave starts with a broadly similar extra caseload of covid-19 inpatients as at the beginning of the second wave: around 450.
With current restrictions failing to control the virus, extrapolation suggests that the actual figure is likely to be more than 40 times higher, as we explain below. The planned relaxation of restrictions over Christmas will boost the numbers further as the NHS also struggles with the additional demands of winter.
England went into lockdown on 5 November, and the number of inpatients with covid-19 began to fall, down to 12 968 on 5 December.1 If this rate of decline had continued, the English NHS would have been on course for just under 11 000 covid-19 inpatients on 31 December.
However, in the past two weeks, despite most of the country being in tiers 2 or 3 of restrictive measures, numbers of inpatients have started to rise again. By 14 December (the latest data available) the covid bed occupancy had climbed back to 15 053.
Unless something happens to change this trajectory, hospitals in England will have just short of 19 000 patients with covid on New Year’s Eve. This figure, derived by extrapolating a straight line from 5 December to 14 December through to 31 December, would be almost exactly the same as the 18 974 peak of the first wave on 12 April.
The NHS currently has around 95 000 general acute beds. It is operating with around 10% fewer beds than a year ago as a result of infection prevention and control measures introduced to try to stop the spread of covid in hospitals.
The main effect of a further surge in covid-19 inpatients is likely to be felt most by those with other conditions. The NHS has learnt from the first and second waves and has robust plans to rapidly increase intensive care capacity, including through the Nightingale hospitals. But how are these to be staffed? A large influx of patients with covid-19, similar or greater than that seen in the autumn, can only be managed if staff and other resources are diverted from treating non-covid patients.
Having recovered much of their capacity for elective and non-urgent care during the autumn, NHS trusts in the most pressured regional health systems are already having to cancel almost all such activity because of the resurgent virus.
A substantial third wave could wipe out almost all the reductions in waiting times for elective procedures achieved in the past 20 years. Average waiting times will reach 12 months by March next year.
This will take years to recover from, at the cost of much suffering and loss of life.
The coming months are also likely to see the NHS under intense winter pressures from seasonal outbreaks of norovirus, increased admissions of frail older people, and the peak of staff absence. The NHS will also be in the middle of delivering the largest vaccination programme in its 72 year history, through already overstretched general practices and hospitals.
Even if NHS England succeeds in vaccinating all those “at risk” by Easter, this won’t be in time to prevent hospital admission and death for many during the next few months. NHS Track and Trace, which in fact has almost nothing to do with the NHS, continues to squander money on failure.
So too does the mass testing of asymptomatic people using lateral flow tests that are not fit for purpose.
London and many neighbouring counties will enter tier 3 on 16 December. However, other areas such as Kent, which has been in tier 3 since 2 December, are still seeing strong increases in hospital admissions. These measures are clearly inadequate.
Ministers are meeting on 16 December to review current restrictions for England. When they devised the current plans to allow household mixing over Christmas they had assumed the covid-19 demand on the NHS would be decreasing. But it is not; it is rising, and the emergence of a new strain of the virus has introduced further potential jeopardy.
Of particular concern is the effect on staff, many of whom have already worked through the hardest nine months of their professional lives. Levels of burnout and sickness absence are likely to exceed those already experienced.
What should be done
Members of the public can and should mitigate the effect of the third wave by being as careful as possible over the next few months. But many will see the lifting of restrictions over Christmas as permission to drop their guard. The government was too slow to introduce restrictions in the spring and again in the autumn.
It should now reverse its rash decision to allow household mixing and instead extend the tiers over the five day Christmas period. In order to bring numbers down in advance of a likely third wave, it should also review and strengthen the tier structure, which has failed to suppress rates of infection and hospital admission.
This joint editorial is only the second in the more than 100 year histories of The BMJ and the Health Service Journal. We are publishing it because we believe the government is about to blunder into another major error that will cost many lives.
If our political leaders fail to take swift and decisive action, they can no longer claim to be protecting the NHS.
Family run for family fun, Conifox Adventure Park has spent the run up to Christmas giving back, in an attempt to show that ‘all is not lost’ when it comes to connecting with your community in 2020.
Donating a number of Christmas trees to different locations and running a competition to team up with a local care home, the park is showing its so much more than just a magical day out.
The home of the most festive firs and spectacular spruces, Conifox Adventure Park wanted to share in the mirthful merriment of Christmas by donating a number of its sought-after trees to some deserving homes.
Firstly, to the local community that has supported it through a difficult year, director James Gammell provided a magnificent tree to Kirkliston, where many families have been regular visitors and the park itself is based.
Secondly, a competition for locals, chosen by locals.
Launched on the first day of the Conifox Adventure Park Christmas Tree Market, Facebook followers were asked to submit an Edinburgh care home that meant something to them, and although it was a close-call until the competition closed on Saturday, Murrayfield House Care Home was voted the winner with the most nominations. They have now received an 8ft tree for the hard-working staff and residents to enjoy (pictured).
Park director, James Gammell, explains why he wants to give the gift of caring this Christmas: “This has been a tough year for everyone, and I know Christmas isn’t going to change that, but even when apart, there is always a little magic felt this time of year.
“The locations we have donated trees to and the charities we have partnered with are close to our hearts, as they are for the hearts of our local community. We haven’t been able to celebrate with you the way we would all have wanted, but this is just a little way we are showing that, although different, Christmas this year is definitely not cancelled. At the end of the day, it’s about community, friendship and coming together, however we can.”
The donations follow the annual light switch-on of the 60ft tree on Edinburgh Mound, which is also sourced by Conifox Adventure Park. Locals can pick up their own 4-14ft Nordmann Firs, Norway Spruces and Fraser Firs from the park, with them ready to be netted and taken away, or delivered in Edinburgh, South Queensferry, West Lothian and more.
For those elves who already have their tree and have been to the park to donate what they can, but haven’t quite finished the Christmas shopping, gift vouchers are available, and can be used in the main park, the Stables Bistro and the new activity centre upon its opening.
Coming soon: an exciting new activity centre with an indoor soft play, baby room, 3 party rooms, cafe, 200-seater function suite and much more!
To find out more visit the Conifox Adventure Park Facebook page @conifoxadventurepark or www.conifox.co.uk.
