SNP’s GORDON MACDONALD has held Edinburgh Pentlands with an increased majority.
His vote was 16,227, a clear victory of 3897 over the Conservatives.
The turnout was an impressive 64.89%.
The result keeps the SNP’s fading hopes of gaining an overall majority alive.
The SNP has yet to lose any of their seats and have won three new constituencies, but these victories are likely to be offset by fewer list seats as a consequence.
As we predicted this morning, the SNP is likely to finish on 63 seats, by far the biggest party – but two short of an outright majority. They will therefore need the support of the Greens to implement their programme for government.
Result in 2016:
GORDON MACDONALD (SNP) 13181; Conservatives 10725; Labour 7811.
SNP hopes of an absolute majority are hanging in the balance this morning as counting continues in the Scottish Parliament elections.
The SNP have gained three seats so far with no other party making any gains. Overnight the SNP sits on 39 seats (+3), the Liberal Democrats four (-), the Tories on three (-2) and Labour on two (-1). The ‘magic number’ for an overall majority is 65.
The final three Edinburgh Constituencies will declare this morning. All three are currently held by the SNP, and while pro-Union tactical voting has undoubtedly been a feature of this year’s election Gordon MacDonald (Pentlands, majority 2456), Ash Denham (Eastern, 5057) and Ben MacPherson (Northern and Leith, 6081) look likely to return to Holyrood.
Gordon MacDonald faces the toughest challenge – from the Tories – and if tactical voting is to feature here, Pentlands could be vulnerable. If there are to be any changes in Edinburgh this afternoon this would be the most likely upset.
Pentlands is due to declare between 5 – 6pm.
But despite being roundly defeated in the vast majority of constituency votes – with a handful of notable exceptions – opposition parties will see their seat numbers increase significantly today when the regional list results, calculated using a proportional representation system, are announced.
Ironically Holyrood’s ‘fair’ hybrid voting system punishes success. Any SNP constituency gains could be wiped out by resultant losses on the regional lists, and it’s not inconceivable that the new Scottish Parliament could look exactly the same as the 2016 one, with the SNP falling just short of an overall majority.
With 31 constituencies still to declare there’s no doubt the SNP will again be the biggest party – quite an achievement in itself – but if the SNP don’t quite win an overall majority, they will need the support of pro-referendum Green MSPs, voted in through the regional lists, to get them over the line.
2016 all over again? We’ll find out this afternoon.
LABOUR’s DANIEL JOHNSON has strengthened his grip on the Edinburgh Southern seat with an increased majority.
The result is one of two bright spots for Labour on what has been a disappointing day, the other being Jackie Baillie’s survival in Dumbarton, where she had Scotland’s smallest majority.
Edinburgh’s count this year will take place over two days at the Royal Highland Centre, Ingliston. It gets underway at 9am this morning.
Throughout the planning process, our elections team has sought guidance from public health experts, consulting extensively with the Director of Public Health, to make sure the event runs as safely and as smoothly as possible.
Today (Friday 7 May) the results for Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Southern and Edinburgh Western will be announced, while results will be declared for Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Pentlands and Edinburgh Northern and Leith as well as the list/Region vote results tomorrow, Saturday 8 May.
Safety measures in place at the count
Everyone must wear a face covering when moving and circulating within the count venue, unless they are exempt.
Hand sanitising stations will be positioned throughout the venue.
Physical distancing will be in place.
Regular cleaning, including at touch points.
Contact tracing system with all people attending the count.
One-way systems in parts of the building.
Room capacity limits will be in place.
Enhanced ventilation at the venue.
Andrew Kerr, Chief Executive of the City of Edinburgh Council and Returning Officer for the Edinburgh constituencies and the Lothian Region, said: The arrangements for the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary Election feel very different from previous elections.
“Throughout our preparations our elections team has sought guidance from public health experts and we’ve put in place extensive additional Covid-19 health and safety measures to help keep everyone safe, reduce the risk of spreading the virus and of course protect the integrity of the Election.
“We’re taking all the necessary steps to support the COVID-safe operation of the election count at the Highland Hall. In line with Public Health Scotland (PHS) guidance every effort has been made to make sure the centre is well ventilated, hand-sanitising stations are positioned throughout the venue, facemasks are worn whenever people move about the venue and that everyone observes two-metre physical distancing at all times.
“Count assistants will adhere to two-metre distancing but don’t have to wear a face covering when seated on the count floor.
“The safety of everyone working at the count is of utmost importance and measures will be enforced by our marshalls throughout the duration of the event for the health and safety of everyone present. I want to thank the team for their efforts so far and look forward to delivering a robust process in these unprecedented times.”
The results from the count will be tweeted live from @Edinburgh_cc as they are announced by the Returning Officer, with the hashtag #SPE21RESULT.
“all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow”
Ipsos MORI’s final 2021 Scottish Parliament election poll for STV News indicates that the SNP is on course to win significantly more of the vote than any other party at the election on 6th May.
Our headline estimate of voting intention on the constituency vote is:
SNP: 50% (-3 compared with our last poll of 29 March – 4 April)
Scottish Labour: 22% (+4)
Scottish Conservatives: 20% (unchanged)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)
Scottish Green Party: 2% (unchanged)
Other: 1% (unchanged)
Our headline estimate of voting intention on the regional list vote is:
SNP: 39% (+1)
Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+2)
Scottish Labour: 18% (unchanged)
Scottish Green Party: 12% (unchanged)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2)
The Alba Party: 2% (-1)
Other: 2% (unchanged)
These findings confirm that the SNP is going into Thursday’s election in a very strong position. However, it is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament.
This is both because specific local circumstances will play a role and because all polls are subject to a margin of error, which could easily be the difference between the SNP gaining an outright majority and falling short of this.
When it comes to the contest for second place, Labour and the Conservatives look to be going into the constituency vote contest neck and neck. The Conservatives look slightly more comfortably ahead on regional list voting intention (23%, compared with 18% for Labour).
The Greens, on 12%, look set to increase their share of the regional vote on the 6% they achieved in 2016. As in 2016, they look likely to finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats in share of regional list votes.
The Alba Party, on just 2%, may struggle to gain enough votes to return any MSPs (although this is, of course, dependent on whether they secure a higher level than this in specific regions).
Among likely voters, 12% say they may still change their mind before they cast their constituency vote.
This rises to 21% of Labour supporters who may change their mind, while SNP and Conservative supporters are more likely to say that they have definitely decided to vote for their party (91% and 90%).
Similarly, 14% say they may still change their mind before they cast their regional list vote.
15% of Labour supporters, 11% of Conservative supporters and 9% of SNP supporters say they may change their mind on the list vote
Three quarters (74%) of SNP constituency voters say they will vote ‘both votes SNP’ by casting their regional list vote for the party as well.
The remaining 26% are most likely to say they will cast their list vote for the Scottish Green Party (18% of SNP constituency voters say this), with a small minority saying they will vote for The Alba Party (4%) or Scottish Labour (3%) on the regional list.
The Scottish public are evenly split on independence.Among those likely to vote in an independence referendum, 50% say they would vote Yes while 50% would vote No.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, commented: “Whether there will be a SNP majority or not hangs in the balance.
“The election result may come down to how the parties perform in a small number of key marginal seats, as well as in the regional vote, which is likely to prove particularly important in determining which party is in second place.
“With a relatively high percentage of voters still saying they’ve not definitely decided, all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow.”
IT’S been the dullest election I can remember. Yes, you can blame COVID, but pandemic aside, it’s hardly been riveting, has it?
Even the return of Alex Salmond – mair comebacks than Frank Sinatrawifie said – did little to raise excitement levels to anything above ‘mildly interesting’. The one memorable moment of the campaign for me was not Anas Sarwar’s dad dancing, it was ‘Gorgeous George’ Galloway’s party election broadcast. I haven’t a clue what it was all about, but it was unforgettable nonetheless.
The Leader Debates were dominated by middle class blokes in ties (occasionally during they were slightly risqué and removed the neckwear to show that they are ordinary blokes just like us). The ties – like the rosettes – are a different colour, but they are still ties. The uniform. All in this together? You bet they are, mired in identikit neo-liberal politics that will change little for the most disadvantaged.
The debates looked like the sort of middle-management meeting that might take place in any big bank or insurance company.
And the women must also play the game. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, serious, statesmanlike (should that be statespersonlike?), looking to be given the opportunity to ‘get on with the job’. No tie, but the smart business suits are a model of conservatism. More of the same, we’re promised. There’s more to do, we’re told. Trust me, she appeals.
There’s every indication that the public do indeed trust Nicola Sturgeon. The unpleasant uncertainties of the Salmond affair have barely left a mark, and confident daily press briefings throughout the pandemic – much as she would say it is the last thing she would have wanted – has given Ms Sturgeon a platform other politicians would dream of.
She has undoubtedly come out of the worst of the pandemic with her reputation enhanced; seen as a safe and steady pair of hands throughout the crisis while Prime Minister Boris Johnson bumbled and blundered from one self-inflicted crisis to another.
Scots voters will deliver their verdict tomorrow but it seems inevitable that a grateful nation will reward Ms Sturgeon’s apparent competence with a further five year term. True, the government’s rhetoric was seldom matched by concrete achievements over the last five years, but many voters will see this as a time for continuity as we plan our way back to some semblance of normality. Conservative with a small ‘c’. And anyway, what’s the alternative?
New Labour (in both senses) leader Anas Sarwar unilaterally declared a new kind of politics. A break from the past, just as Sarwar is a break from the recent socialist past of Jeremy Corbyn and Ricard Leonard. Let’s put the politics of division behind us, he appealed. We must focus on Scotland’s National Recovery, he said. Trouble is, so did everyone else, including Nicola Sturgeon. Indeed, is there anyone in the land who would argue with that?
Certainly not Lib Dem leader, he of the famous photoshoot stunts but not a lot else, Willie Rennie. Or Patrick Harvie. Or Douglas Ross. All agree – the national recovery must be paramount, they sing from the same hymn-sheet.
And maybe that’s the problem: there’s nothing new here. Nothing radical. Nothing different. Nothing to fire up passion and nothing that will shake voters from their apathy.
Opposition parties should have started the election campaign on the front foot, but right from the start of the election campaign, just days after a weakened Nicola Sturgeon survived accusations of misleading parliament during the Salmond Affair, it was back to business as usual – and the opposition parties retreated into their deferential, subservient roles.
Quickly out of the starting blocks, Labour proclaimed: ‘We want to be the official opposition!’ Hardly the sparkiest motivator for the troops out on the streets delivering leaflets, is it? ‘Vote for us – we’re nearly second best!’ Honestly, who wants to be Number Two? Well, Labour does. That is the limit of their ambitions – to defeat the Tories and finish second. Even a distant second would do.
For present-day Labour – a party that dominated Scottish politics for generations – second place would be seen, and spun, as progress. Opinion polls suggest that even that target has proved beyond them this time round, however. And they can’t even blame Corbyn.
The Tories know that their best hope of progress – finishing second again, that is (even the most loyal true-blue zealots dismiss the idea that they could do any better than that!) – lies in the top-up lists whereby MSPs gain seats, almost through the back door, in Holyrood’s hybrid proportional representation voting system.
While the SNP government’s shortcomings have been increasingly documented – education, drug deaths, starving local government of adequate funding, to name but three – the Tories decided instead to concentrate their fire on another independence referendum!
It’s their tried and tested strategy: only by voting for us can you stop a ‘damaging referendum’, they claim. They can’t – it’s uncertain now that their London bosses would even try – but the argument seems to be a compelling one for unionists in Scotland: no matter how bad the SNP government is in Holyrood, they have the comforting certainty of remaining part of the UK.
Turning the election into a straight Independence vs Union choice suits the Tories down to the ground: the Conservative and Unionist Party is surely the party anxious voters will turn to again in the fight to preserve the union? The clue’s in the name!
And you don’t even have the inconvenience of having to come up with policies to address the nitty-gritty of domestic politics. So ‘Stop The Referendum’ is the simple Tory message – and this despite some frustrated nationalists arguing that there seems to be little appetite among the SNP leadership for an early referendum anyway!
So while we know that the SNP will almost certainly be the biggest party following tomorrow’s elections, there are some things we do not know. Most importantly, will the SNP gain an overall majority?
Scotland will elect 129 MSPs tomorrow. 73 of these are constituency MSPs who are elected using the traditional ‘First Past the Post’ method.
The other 56 are ‘List’ MSPs who are elected through the Additional Member system of proportional representation. Scotland is split into eight regions, each of which will elect seven list MSPs.
To form a majority government a party must win at least 65 seats. The SNP won 63 seats in the 2016 elections and formed a minority administration with the support of the independence-supporting Scottish Greens. So near but yet so far – can the SNP reach that magic number this time round?
Other issues of interest: Will Alex Salmond’s Alba party win any seats? And, if so, will the SNP hold their noses and do a deal with them to advance the case for another referendum should they need to do so?
Alba has argued, with some justification, that a vote for the SNP on the peach ballot paper is effectively a wasted vote as the SNP is expected to hoover up the vast majority of constituencies so will gain few list seats. Will nationalist voters take heed to ensure a ‘supermajority’ or take their chances with an SNP1, 2?
One thing is certain. There will be a lot of new faces in the new Holyrood Parliament. No fewer than 33 MSPs have stood down and will not contest tomorrow’s election. That’s a lot of experience to lose as the new parliament attempts to formulate a strategy for post-pandemic recovery.
Among the best known are Jeane Freeman, Aileen Campbell and Mike Russell of the SNP, Tories Ruth Davidson and Margaret Mitchell, Labour’s Neil Findlay and Iain Gray, Green John Finnie and Lib Dem Mike Rumbles. Presiding Officer Ken Mackintosh also steps down.
Also leaving at last are ‘Independent’ MSPs Derek Mackay and Mark McDonald, former SNP Ministers who left office in disgrace but doggedly held on to their Holyrood seats – and £64,470 annual salaries – until the bitter end.
Here’s hoping the new parliament can agree cross-party legislation to ensure that democratic disgraces like these will not be allowed to happen again.
So good luck to all the candidates as they deliver their final leaflets this evening. None will sleep too well tonight, whether you have the biggest majority in Scotland or you are standing for the very first time in an ‘unwinnable’ seat. It’s the adrenaline!
They will all be up at the crack of dawn to get their A-boards out at the polling stations, hoping for decent weather – we had some snow and hail flurries in Edinburgh today – to encourage a good voter turnout. It will be a long day – and then there’s the long wait until Friday’s count, so a second night of troubled sleep ahead!
Locally, it’s hard to see any shock results, but Edinburgh Central – Ruth Davidson’s seat before she left for that lucrative, unelected retirement home, the House of Lords – will be interesting. Can the Tories hold on to this SNP target seat?
Other seats to keep an eye on are East Lothian (Labour seat; SNP target), Airdrie & Shotts (SNP held; Labour target), Moray (SNP seat; Tory target), Dumbarton (Labour; SNP target) and Perthshire North (SNP; Tory target).
