Harbour Homes and Cullross Ltd have brought eleven new affordable homes to Telford Drive. The homes, close to a popular walking and cycle route, will be managed by Harbour Lettings who look forward to welcoming new tenants this spring.
The contemporary development consists of one and two-bedroom flats overlooking Edinburgh’s skyline with the castle and Arthur’s Seat in view, and further afield to the Pentland Hills.
The modern homes have ample storage, ground floor private and communal gardens, bicycle storage and a rainwater harvesting system. These new homes, located on an already established residential street, are conveniently placed near public transport links, green spaces and shops at a nearby retail park.
Heather Kiteley, Harbour Chief Executive, said:“These homes offer a modern, affordable living option for the local community, including those working at the nearby Western General Hospital.
“It is fantastic to bring our new mid market rent homes to an established community, and I expect these will be sought after as a highly convenient spot for the local workforce.
“This project has been a real success, working alongside Cullross Ltd to deliver such high-quality homes ahead of schedule.”
Mark Beaton, Director of Cullross Ltd., said: “We are delighted to be handing over the eleven 1-bed and 2-bed flats at Telford Drive, well ahead of schedule.
We have worked closely with Harbour Homes, both through the planning process and latterly the construction phase, providing them with these high-quality new flats.
“Although the nature of the project was at times complex, we are pleased with the outcome resulting in these excellent new homes. We look forward to seeing the new tenants moving in shortly.”
The main contractor was Cullross Ltd who appointed the architect and structural engineer. The employer’s agent was Pottie Wilson, and the Clerk of Works was Harbour Homes.
February House Price Index from Walker Fraser Steele
January’s downturn in prices continues into February
Prices in 2023 experience the largest fall in fourteen years
East Renfrewshire is authority with highest average prices
Sales volumes are low in Jan & Feb – expect higher sales in March
Average Scottish House price now £220,702, down 0.9% on January, up 3% annually
Table 1. Average House Prices in Scotland for the period February 2022 – February 2023
(The prices are end-month smoothed over a 3 month period)
Note: The Walker Fraser Steele Acadata House Price Index (Scotland) provides the “average of all prices paid for houses”, including those made with cash.
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments:“Far from experiencing a storm, the Scottish housing market could be said to be navigating choppy waters.
“This is to be expected as January and February are typically slow months for house sales – in part because of the shorter days and extended holidays over the Christmas period. However, the seasonal lull in activity has been amplified by the rise in mortgage costs as a result of the ill-conceived Truss-Kwarteng mini budget.
“Amazingly, notwithstanding that onslaught, the current average house price still remains some £6,300, or 3.0%, above the average price of twelve months earlier. However, through a monthly lens, our index shows that in February 2023 prices continued their descent, falling by a further £2,000 in the month, on top of the £1,750 price decrease in January.
“If we take account of both the change in prices and the number of transactions involved – Edinburgh (17%); Aberdeenshire (9%); South Lanarkshire (9%); North Lanarkshire (7%); East Renfrewshire (6%); and Clackmannanshire (6%) in February accounted for 54% of the £6,300 increase in Scotland’s average house price over the year.
“Of note in Scotland is that many estate agents have noticed an increase in the number of rental properties coming to market. Landlords raised their concerns about the legislation in response to the cost-of-living crisis some time ago. This legislation has followed a sustained period of increased letting agent regulation, higher taxes for landlords and tight rent controls to protect tenants.
“As we emerge from February, we will watch transaction volumes carefully. In each of the last eight years, March transaction totals have always exceeded those of February. We should expect higher sales volumes in next month’s data.”
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
The February housing market
February 2023 continued the downward trend in average prices seen in January, with prices falling by a further £2,000 in the month, on top of the £1,750 price decrease in January. Prices in 2023 to the end of February have therefore dropped by £3,750. Ignoring the price movements associated with the introduction of the LBTT tax in April 2015 and the termination of the LBTT tax-holiday in April 2021, these price reductions represent the largest falls over two months since February/March 2009, some fourteen years ago.
During February 2023, it was the price of flats that again fell the most, down by -1.8% in the month.
So why the price falls? As discussed last month, January and February are typically the weakest months of the year in Scotland’s housing market in terms of transaction levels, which is in part to do with Christmas, when many estate agents remain closed over the holiday period.
When sales levels are low, minor trends – which might otherwise have been obscured by the larger number of sales in the other months of the year – can stand out. For example, estate agents have been reporting that the number of sales of properties which have previously been in the rental market are becoming more noticeable, with the government rent cap and future regulation changes deterring investors in this sector.
Even a small exodus of private investors in buy-to-let properties will have an impact on prices in the winter months. In Edinburgh, for example, the price of an average flat fell from £286k in December 2022 to £275k in February 2023, while in Glasgow average flat prices fell from £180k to £169k over the same period – with these two cities accounting for 38% of Scotland’s flat sales in February.
Despite reporting the largest monthly fall in prices of the last fourteen years, the current average house price still remains some £6,300, or 3.0%, above the average price of twelve months earlier.
Indeed, as can be seen from Figure 1 below, taking a view of price movements in Scotland over the last five years, the dip in prices in January and February 2023 is barely perceptible. The average house price in February 2018 was £178,175 compared to £220,702 in February 2023 – a £42,500, or 24% rise over the period – about which the adage that past performance is no guarantee of future performance is pertinent.
Figure 1. The average house price in Scotland over the five year period February 2018 to February 2023
Local Authority Analysis
Table 2. Average House Prices in Scotland, by local authority area, comparing February 2022, January 2023 and February 202
Table 2 above shows the average house price and percentage change (over the last month and year) by Local Authority Area for February 2022, as well as for January and February 2023, calculated on a seasonal- and mix-adjusted basis. The ranking in Table 2 is based on the local authority area’s average house price for February 2023. Local Authority areas shaded in blue experienced record average house prices in February 2023.
Annual change
The average house price in Scotland in February 2023 has increased by some £6,300 – or 3.0% – over the last twelve months. This annual rate of growth has decreased by -1.6% from January’s 4.6%, which is a slightly smaller fall than the -1.9% reduction seen in January.
However, in February 2023, 23 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland were still seeing their average prices rise above the levels of twelve months earlier, three fewer than in January. The nine areas where values fell over the year were, in descending order (with newcomers this month marked by an asterisk):- Inverclyde* (-8.7%), Orkney Islands* (-3.0%); Fife (-2.9%), Aberdeen City (-2.1%), Na hEileanan Siar (-2.0%), Glasgow City* (-1.2%), Angus* (-1.2%), Scottish Borders (-0.4%) and Dundee City (-0.2%).
The area with the highest annual increase in average house prices in both January and February 2023 was Clackmannanshire, up by 25.0% and 29.3% respectively over the two months. However, there were only 27 transactions in Clackmannanshire in February 2023, with a small number of transactions frequently being associated with volatile movements in average prices.
On a weight-adjusted basis – which incorporates both the change in prices and the number of transactions involved – there were six local authority areas in February which accounted for 54% of the £6,300 increase in Scotland’s average house price over the year. The six areas in descending order of influence are: – Edinburgh (17%); Aberdeenshire (9%); South Lanarkshire (9%); North Lanarkshire (7%); East Renfrewshire (6%); and Clackmannanshire (6%).
Monthly change
In February 2023, Scotland’s average house price fell in the month by some -£2,000, or -0.9%. This is the largest fall in a single month since March 2009, some fourteen years ago, ignoring the rather artificial falls around the months relating to the introduction of the LBTT in April 2015, as well as the ending of the LBTT tax-holidays in April 2021.
In February 2023, Scotland’s average house price fell in the month by some -£2,000, or -0.9%. This is the largest fall in a single month since March 2009, some fourteen years ago, ignoring the rather artificial falls around the months relating to the introduction of the LBTT in April 2015, as well as the ending of the LBTT tax-holidays in April 2021.
On a weight-adjusted basis, there were four local authority areas in February which accounted for 51% of the -£2,000 decrease in Scotland’s average house price in the month. The four areas in descending order of influence are: – Glasgow (-18%); Edinburgh (-16%); Fife (-9%); and East Lothian (-8%). It is not surprising to find Glasgow and Edinburgh in this listing, given the fall in flat prices, as they are the two authorities with the highest percentage of flats being sold each month, at 67% and 63% of their respective transaction totals.
On a similar theme, Fife has the highest proportion of terraced sales of all the 32 local authorities in Scotland, at 27% – terraced properties also being popular among buy-to-let investors, who may have decided it is time to sell.
The highest increase in average prices in the month was in East Renfrewshire, where – with two detached properties selling for £1 million plus in Newton Mearns, one being a new-build on the Southfield Grange Development – the average price of detached properties in the area rose by £22k in the month.
Overall, in February, the average price in East Renfrewshire increased by 7.7%, causing Edinburgh with its downward movement in prices, to fall into second place in terms of having the highest-valued average house price in Scotland.
Peak Prices
Each month, in Table 2 above, the local authority areas which have reached a new record in their average house prices are highlighted in light blue. In February, there are 5 such authorities, up by one from 4 in January.
Scotland transactions of £750k or higher
Table 3. The number of transactions by month in Scotland greater than or equal to £750k, January 2015 – February 2023
Table 3 shows the number of transactions per month in Scotland which are equal to or greater than £750k. The threshold of £750k has been selected as it is the breakpoint at which the highest rate of LBTT becomes payable.
There were 37 such transactions recorded by RoS relating to February 2023. Currently, this is the fourth-highest February total recorded to date, but there is likely to be an increase to this figure next month, as RoS process additional sales.
According to the RoS data, the highest priced property sold in Scotland in February 2023 was a £1.6 million terraced property in Edinburgh. This contrasts with three properties sold in January at £3 million plus. Although the number of such sales is small, especially in the winter months, it is perhaps an early indication of a slight slowing in sales at the top-end of the market.
Transactions analysis
Figure 2 below shows the monthly transaction count for purchases during the period from January 2015 to January 2023, based on RoS (Registers of Scotland) figures for the Date of Entry.
The chart shows how transactions tend to dip in February from the January totals, which in turn are lower than the totals for the year’s preceding December. In six of the eight years displayed, the February sales total is the lowest of the year. The two occasions when this was not the case was in February 2020 and February 2021.
In February 2020 the Covid pandemic had yet to be identified, with the first lockdown beginning on 23rd March 2020, Phase 1 being introduced on 29th March 2020 and Phase 2 introduced on 19th June 2020. This resulted in an almost total lack of sales in April 2020 – a position clearly visible on the graph.
In 2021 the end of the LBTT tax-holiday was planned, and indeed, did end on 31st March. Consequently, sales of properties were higher than average in the final two months of the scheme – the brown line showing a peak in sales in March 2021. Sales did however slump in April 2021, as the tax-holiday came to an end. April was therefore the month with the lowest level of sales in 2021.
A close study of the eight years displayed in Figure 2 also reveals that each December is followed by a reduction in transactions in the following January, without exception.
Figure 2. The number of sales per month recorded by RoS based on entry date from 2015 – 2023
What we can also learn from Figure 2 is that one of the three months of June, July and August have seen the highest sales of the year in 4 of the 8 years displayed. Finally, in each of the eight years, March transaction totals have always exceeded those of February. One can therefore look forward to higher sales volumes with next month’s data
Heat Map
The heat map below shows the rate of house price growth for the 12 months ending February 2023. As reported above, 23 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland have seen a rise in their average property values over the last year, the nine exceptions being :- Inverclyde, Orkney Islands, Fife, Aberdeen City, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Glasgow City, Angus, Scottish Borders and Dundee City.
The highest increase on the mainland over the twelve months to February 2023 was in Clackmannanshire at 29.3%, although this was based on a relatively small number of sales. In second place on the mainland was Moray at 14.3%. 4 of the 32 local authority areas had price growth of 10.0% or higher – one fewer than in January 2023.
Comparisons with Scotland
Figure 3. Scotland house prices, compared with England and Wales, North East and North West for the period January 2005-February 2023
Figure 4. A comparison of the annual change in house prices in Scotland, England and Wales, North East and North West for the period January 2020–February 2023
Scotland’s Eight Cities
Figure 5. Average house prices for Scotland’s eight cities from December 2021–February 2023
Figure 6. Average house prices for Scotland’s eight cities February 2023
Councils empowered to prioritise ‘homes for living in‘
Plans to enable councils to raise the amount of council tax paid on empty and second homes will be included in a new consultation to help increase housing availability.
First Minister Humza Yousaf will announce proposals at the Scottish Trades Union Congress today (Monday 17 April) which could give councils powers to charge up to double the full rate of council tax on second homes from April 2024.
The proposed change would bring second homes into line with long-term empty homes from next year. The joint consultation with COSLA will also seek views on further powers to charge more than double rate on both empty and second homes in future years.
Latest figures show that in January 2023 there were 42,865 long-term empty homes in Scotland.
The consultation will also ask for views on whether there should be changes to the definition of when a property offering self-catered accommodation becomes liable for non-domestic rates.
The plans will deliver on commitments in the Scottish Government’s Housing to 2040 strategy and Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Green Party to enable councils to prioritise homes for living in and manage the impact of second or long-term empty homes.
Ahead of the consultation opening, the First Minister said: “We want everyone in Scotland to have an affordable home that meets their needs and this work to improve the availability of sustainable long-term housing opportunities is a core part of that.
“By recognising the important role councils have in considering local needs, these proposals aim to strike a balance between good housing supply and helping communities to thrive and benefit from tourism.
“I encourage anyone who is interested to respond to the consultation as we try to prioritise homes for living in, seeking a fair contribution to local services from everyone and recognising the benefits to local economies from self-catering accommodation and second homes.
“All responses will be carefully considered before legislation is introduced to the Scottish Parliament.”
COSLA Resources Spokesperson Councillor Katie Hagmaan said: “Local government in Scotland is committed to supporting access for everyone in Scotland to an affordable home.
“That is why we are pleased to be launching this joint consultation, as we work to meet the shared aim of creating the right balance to increase the availability of housing and a taxation system that is fair for the tourism industry.
“We also welcome the greater fiscal empowerment for councils to reflect local circumstances this would introduce. Any additional funding created by these changes under consultation will enable councils to invest in local needs and support sustainable communities.
“We are pleased to be jointly working with the Scottish Government on this vital area of work and we look forward to considering the responses.”
Increasing and accelerating housing supply, tackling homelessness, ending rough sleeping and progressing Scotland’s 20-year housing plan are key priorities for Housing Minister Paul McLennan.
On his first public visit as Housing Minister, Mr McLennan visited the Letham Mains housing development in Haddington and saw first-hand how Scottish Government funding is supporting local councils and housing associations to deliver energy-efficient homes that meet the needs of communities across Scotland.
Outlining his priorities, Mr McLennan said: “My aim is for everyone to have a warm, safe, affordable home that meets their needs and these 37 new social rented homes in Haddington by East Lothian Council, supported by £2.2 million of Scottish Government funding, will make a real and lasting difference to the lives of the new residents.
“Housing to 2040 sets out the vision for what we want Scotland’s homes and communities to look like. That includes ensuring people have access to green space and essential services, and putting an end to fuel poverty and homelessness.
“Scotland has led the way in delivering affordable housing across the UK, with more than 118,000 homes delivered since 2007 and we are committed to delivering on our target of 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, of which at least 70% will be available for social rent and 10% will be in our remote, rural and island communities.
“I am well aware of the global issues affecting construction which are impacting housing delivery. I am confident, however, that with the continued support of our partners we can achieve our shared goal of delivering more affordable homes for the people of Scotland.
“Scotland has the strongest rights for homeless households in the UK and we are looking to strengthen these further – taking steps to reduce stays in temporary accommodation, eradicate rough sleeping and prevent homelessness from happening in the first place.
“We are also taking steps to make the right to an adequate home a reality, tackle high rents and increase stability for those in the private rented sector and give local authorities the tools they need to improve access to housing in their local areas.
“I look forward to working with all partners in the coming months as we redouble our efforts to support a robust and strong housing system for now and the future.”
East Lothian Council’s Cabinet Spokesperson for Housing and Property Maintenance, Councillor Andy Forrest, said: “I was pleased to welcome the Housing Minister to this latest phase of the wider development at Letham Mains, which is providing 800 much-needed new homes for this area including affordable housing and, of course, the new Letham Mains Primary School.
“Letham also includes a local centre, community facilities and transport links. This site forms part of the council’s general commitment to build almost 2,000 new affordable homes between now and the financial year 2026/27.
“East Lothian Council is fully committed to preventing and tackling homelessness and welcomes continued engagement with the Scottish Government, and now with our new Minister, to jointly address housing issues and pressures specific to East Lothian.”
Tommy Stirling, Production Director for Taylor Wimpey East Scotland adds: “We are pleased to have had the opportunity to meet the new Housing Minister, Paul McLennan, during his visit to Letham Mains.
“We are proud of our long and established relationship with East Lothian Council, which has and continues to deliver much-needed affordable homes locally at Letham Mains, Haddington. This visit was a great opportunity for the Minister to see first-hand the high-quality affordable homes that we are building.”
Housing to 2040 is Scotland’s long-term strategy for housing. It was developed following extensive engagement with the housing sector, wider stakeholders and the public, and sets out a vision for what th eScottish Government wants Scotland’s homes and communities to look like by the end of 2040.
GRANTON Information Centre welfare rights advisers Elvira and Pui-Kei will be delivering an advice and information session tomorrow at Royston Wardieburn Community Centre.
Come along if you have any questions about debt/benefits or housing!
Living standards will be improved for thousands of residents in Edinburgh after Councillors agreed a £173 million spending package to upgrade and build new homes.
At a meeting of the Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work committee on Thursday (9 March), decisions made during February’s budget meeting were built upon to agree a comprehensive spending programme for the year ahead.
Under the plans for the 2023/24 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) Capital Programme an extra £50m will be invested compared to last year. This will continue the city’s pipeline of new builds and ramp up capital investment into existing homes, including innovative energy efficiency upgrades.
The council is one of the first local authorities in Scotland to pilot a ‘whole house retrofit’ approach and this will be adopted fully in 2023.
This will focus on improvements to the fabric of buildings and energy performance including design and development work for at least four multi-storey blocks.
Retrofitting will not only help with issues like damp but help to lower tenants’ fuel costs and support Edinburgh’s net zero carbon by 2030 commitment, with largescale rewiring, roof replacements, new kitchens, bathrooms, windows, and doors due to be identified.
The spending programme is also set to involve improvements to common areas and stairwells, adapting homes in response to people’s health needs and transforming derelict sites and void properties into much needed new homes for tenants and people experiencing homelessness.
Councillor Jane Meagher, Convener of the Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work Committee, said: “More than 3,000 older homes all over the city are set to benefit from improvements – making them greener, safer, and more accessible for generations to come. Our capital housing programme is about spending money where it is most needed so that we can help as many residents as possible live well in safe, warm homes.
“That means making council homes more energy efficient which will help to drive down bills. It means building brand new homes in response to the huge demand we’re seeing, and we need to keep listening to our tenants so that we can invest in those areas which will make the biggest difference to people’s lives.
“Post-pandemic, Brexit and in the face of a cost-of-living crisis and war in Ukraine, it remains a challenging time for residents, for council budgets and for construction at large. Like everyone else we’ve seen our running costs rise, but we must remain committed to tackling Edinburgh’s twin housing and homelessness crises. We also need to improve the standard of the housing we provide.
“I’m proud that, despite many pressures, we’ve had agreement from the Chamber to invest so substantially this year. As we move forward, we’ll need to continue to work with partners and make our case to the Scottish Government to maximise funding opportunities and keep our longer-term plans on track.”
The capital budget is prepared annually, following consultation with tenants and regular review of the council’s Housing Revenue Account (HRA) Business Strategy. It is shaped by tenants’ and elected member priorities, the most pressing maintenance and improvements needed to keep homes modern and safe, statutory requirements and the commitments outlined in the council’s Business Plan.
Guidance setting out private rented sector landlords’ responsibilities for ensuring their property meets updated standards has been published.
From 1 March next year, all private rented properties will be required to have central heating, a kitchen with adequate space and facilities to prepare and store food, and common areas that are safe to use and properly maintained.
Properties will also need a circuit breaker device that reduces the risk of electrocution and fire. Existing requirements for safe gas and electrical systems will be extended to other types of fuel. Similar standards are already in place in the social rented sector.
The guidance also covers the action landlords must already take to prevent damp and mould.
Housing Secretary Shona Robison said: “Landlords have one year to meet our updated Repairing Standard, which will improve the condition of private rented property, make homes safer and ensure consistency between the social and private rented sectors.
“The majority of private landlords will already be meeting these standards. The guidance published today will help landlords better understand their responsibilities and ensure those who do need to carry out works can do so in advance of the 1 March 2024 deadline.
“All rented homes are required to meet standards that ensure they are free from damp and mould, and this guidance will help us to ensure this happens in the private rented sector.”
Harbour Homes is working with Cairn Housing Association to create 306 homes at Granton Harbour (Plot S), which are due to welcome their first tenants in autumn 2023. There will be 96 affordable properties for Harbour Homes to provide social housing and 130 Harbour Lettings homes for mid market rent. The remaining 80 properties will be social rent homes for Cairn Housing Association.
A seven-bedroom independent living home and office space with an adjoining one-bedroom flat are also being built for Dean and Cauvin Young People’s Trust to support people in the care system. Dean and Cauvin provide accommodation for young people (from ages 15-21) as well as supporting their transition to living independently.
Pamela Kidd (left), Chief Executive at Dean and Cauvin and Harbour Group Chief Executive Heather Kiteley (right).
Following a visit to the site Heather Kiteley, Group Chief Executive of Harbour (formerly Port of Leith Housing Association), said: “This development is going to offer so much to the local community in Granton and continue our dedication to providing affordable homes in Edinburgh.
“The progress that has been made at this site is great to see and I can’t wait to see the finished high-quality homes.”
Jason MacGilp, Cairn Housing Association Chief Executive, commented: “It is great to see the progress of this important development and we are looking forward to its completion this year.
“Our thanks go to the contractor team at CCG for their hard work on this high-quality scheme. Cairn are delighted to be working in partnership with Harbour Homes and with the City of Edinburgh Council to make a positive contribution to meeting housing needs and the wider regeneration of the waterfront.”
Young adults who visited the site and will be moving into Dean and Cauvin’s unit said: “We’re looking forward to fewer stairs, better beds, having double glazing and having better showers. Excited to be the first group of people to be staying there. Great that it’s next to the seaside!”
Staff from Dean and Cauvin commented: “There will be nicer conditions for staff and it will be good to have a nicer sleep-in room for staff.
“The new office being on the ground floor will mean it is closer to the main living space so everyone can stay connected. It should feel much more like a home. Bigger windows will allow in more light and fresh air.
“We’re most excited about having a laundry room and a nice dining area for everyone to eat together and socialise. It’ll be nice to have a purpose-built space just for us.”
(PICTURED – TOP L-R) Meg Deasley (Director of Property Services, Cairn), Rachel Fraser (Development Officer, Harbour Homes), Jason MacGilp (Chief Executive, Cairn), Heather Kiteley (Harbour Group Chief Executive), Gordon Cameron (Director of Group Operations, Harbour) and Susan Wilson (Development and Regeneration Manager, Cairn).
LAR Housing Trust’s impressive redevelopment of a formerly empty building in Niddrie, Edinburgh, into six two-bedroom flats for people with specialist housing needs has been shortlisted in this year’s Finders International 12th Scottish Empty Homes Awards.
The Scottish Empty Homes Partnership announced that the project, which was by LAR in partnership with City of Edinburgh Council and Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership, is a finalist for the ‘best retrofit of an empty home’ award.
In its submission, LAR said its development of the building which had been empty for seven years “will make a significant and life-changing impact for its tenants, some of whom have been hospitalised for two decades.”
The awards celebrate the impactful and transformative empty homes work undertaken across Scotland, recent statistics revealed almost 43,000 homes are lying empty and bringing even some of these back into use, can be a cost-effective way to help ease pressure on supply challenges.
Award winners will be announced on Wednesday 1st March 2023 at the 12th Scottish Empty Homes Conference, which will be held at the Engine Shed in Stirling, as well as being streamed online for digital participants.
Shaheena Din, National Project Manager, Scottish Empty Homes Partnership, said: “It has been incredibly difficult for the Advisory Group to choose finalists for this year’s awards as the quality of entries is very high, and we thank all those who took the time to submit nominations.
“The nominations demonstrate how empty homes work often involves creative problem solving and has a real impact on issues related to housing and the strengthening of communities.
“We look forward to showcasing the work of outstanding projects and individuals across the Scottish housing sector at the awards next month. Well done to our finalists and we look forward to announcing the winners in March.”
Public Sector Development Manager for Empty Homes, Muhammad Uddin from Finders International, who are the awards sponsor for the conference, said: “We are really impressed by the calibre of entries and shortlisting the nominations was not an easy task.
“It just demonstrates the level of innovation and initiative in the Scottish empty homes sector and we are proud to be involved in the awards.”
Finalists and winners will be presented with wooden plaques handmade by social enterprise Clydesdale Community Initiatives (CCI) at the conference.
Tickets for the 12th Scottish Empty Homes Conference are available via Eventbrite:
Finders International are the gold sponsor of the conference, with Auction House Scotland, Fraser & Fraser and Brodies LLP as silver sponsors, and Online Property Auctions as bronze sponsor.
East Renfrewshire is the mainland authority with the highest growth at 17.7%
2022 makes history with the largest number of high-value homes sold
Edinburgh one of six areas with values increased by 10% or more
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments:“If we step back for a moment and look at 2022 overall, it has been a record year for housing transactions in Scotland – all the more significant if we consider the performance of house prices over the last couple of years which have seemingly inexorably climbed.
“When we consider the rise in prices since the start of lockdowns back in March 2020, the average house price over that period has risen £41,700 (or 22.7 per cent). If we look at consumer prices measured by the CPIH over the same period, house prices have comfortably outperformed price growth elsewhere.
“Our data looks at the entire market which includes the significant volume of cash purchases north of the border and supports the view expressed in the RICS Residential Market Survey for December and January which indicated that prices are generally remaining resilient in Scotland. A frequent observation is that there remains a lack of suitable properties coming on to the market, which creates competition for those that are available, which helps in turn support current price levels.
“If we focus specifically on December, we can see the impact of the rising cost of borrowing. The average house price in Scotland continued to rise during December, although the increase was a modest £63. Average prices have now reached £225,520, which is some £14,800 – or 7.0% – higher than a year earlier. This sets another new record average price for Scotland, the tenth to occur in 2022.”
Table 1. Average House Prices in Scotland for the period December 2021 – December 2022 (The prices are end-month smoothed over a 3 month period) (Link to source Excel)
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadia Senior Housing Analyst:
The December housing market
Average house prices in Scotland continued to rise during December, although the increase was a very modest £63. Average prices have now reached £225,520, which is some £14,800 – or 7.0% – higher than a year earlier. This sets another new record average price for Scotland, the tenth to occur in 2022.
Indeed, if we look at the change in values since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 – when the average house price in Scotland was £183,853 – there has been an increase of some £41,700 or 22.7% to the end of December 2022. This compares favourably with the increase in consumer prices of 15.4%, measured by CPIH, over the same period. Property prices have thus risen in real terms over the last nearly three years.
Looking at the first six months of the monthly rates of change in house prices in Table 1 on page 3, the total amounts to 5.3%, which contrasts with the 1.5% increase in monthly rates during the second half of 2022.
This is a clear demonstration of the cooling in the housing market that has taken place over the last six months. However, what we can also see is that, with the exception of August 2022, the movement in prices has remained positive, which indicates that demand for properties still exists – even if it has softened from the levels seen earlier in the year.
As we show on page 7, sales of high value properties have continued throughout 2022, at a pace which exceeds that of 2021 – which year had itself set new record levels, almost 90% higher than the total number of high-value properties sold in 2019.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for December and January both indicated that prices are generally remaining resilient in Scotland, which contrasts with negative movements to the south in England. A frequent comment among surveyors in Scotland is that there is a lack of properties coming on to the market, which creates competition for those that are available, generally maintaining existing price levels. We wait with considerable interest to see what 2023 has in store.
Annual change
The average house price in Scotland in December 2022 has increased by some £14,800 – or 7.0% – over the last twelve months. This annual rate of growth has marginally decreased from November’s revised 7.1%, but only by the smallest of margins. In fact, prices in December increased by just £63 in the month, but an increase is an increase, and somewhat remarkably this rise established yet another record average house price – £225,520 – for the tenth month this calendar year.
In December 2022, 29 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland saw their average prices rise above the levels of twelve months earlier, the same number as in November. The three areas where values fell over the year were, in descending order, Aberdeen City (-5.4%), Scottish Borders (-3.0%) and Stirling (-0.7%).
Aberdeen City has now fallen by nine places over the year to 24th in terms of its ranking of average prices compared to the other 31 local authorities in Scotland. This month in Aberdeen City, flats have experienced the largest fall in value, from an average £120k in December 2021 to £105k one year later.
The area with the highest annual increase in average house prices in December 2022 was the Shetland Islands, where average values have increased by 19.5% over the year. In the Shetland Islands, detached property values have seen the highest rise over the year, from £190k in December 2021 to £240k twelve months later, but this is based on a relatively small number of transactions.
On the mainland, the highest annual increase was in East Renfrewshire, up by 17.7%. This increase has been assisted by the sale of a £2.3 million detached property in Giffnock, some nine miles to the south of Glasgow. The property is the most expensive home to have been sold in East Renfrewshire in the last five years.
On a weight-adjusted basis, which incorporates both the change in prices and the number of transactions involved, there are five local authority areas in December which accounted for 51% of the £14,800 increase in Scotland’s average house price over the year. The five areas in descending order of influence are: – Edinburgh (25%); Glasgow (11%); East Renfrewshire (5%); North Lanarkshire (5%); and South Lanarkshire (5%).
Monthly change
In December 2022, Scotland’s average house price rose in the month by just £63, or 0.0% This follows November’s rise in prices of some £1,100, but it does at least remain positive.
In December 2022, 17 of the 32 Local Authority areas in Scotland experienced rising prices in the month, which is the same number as in November. Of the 17 local authorities with price increases, 8 are in the top 16 areas when ranked by price, with 9 being in the lower half of the market. The distribution of those with price rises is therefore evenly matched between the higher- and lower-priced areas in Scotland.
The area with the largest increase in average prices on the mainland in December was Moray, up by 4.9%. This month, the increase in the average price in Moray was helped by the sale of a six-bedroom detached home, set in eight acres of land, located some 1.5 miles to the west of Elgin. It sold for £1.1 million which is the second most expensive property in Moray in 2022. It had previously been sold in June 2010 for £800k, which works out at an annual compound gain of 2.6%, over the period.
Peak Prices
Each month, in Table 2 above, the local authority areas which have reached a new record in their average house prices are highlighted in light blue. In December, there are 6 such authorities, down from the 8 in November. Scotland itself has also set a new record average house price of £225,520 in the month.
Scotland transactions of £750k or higher
Table 3. The number of transactions by month in Scotland greater than or equal to £750k, January 2015 – December 2022 (Link to source Excel)
Table 3 shows the number of transactions per month in Scotland which are equal to or greater than £750k. The threshold of £750k has been selected as it is the breakpoint at which the highest rate of LBTT becomes payable.
There were 114 such transactions recorded by Ros during the month, with 70 relating to December 2022, 34 to November 2022 and a further 10 from earlier months, increasing the number registered to date in 2022 to 1,198.
This total already exceeds that of 2021, with a further 30 or so properties likely to be added to the total next month. Thus 2022 has proven to be the year with the largest number of high value sales in Scotland’s housing history.
Indeed, on the relatively safe assumption that a further 10 sales will be added to the December 2022 total, we can say that such sales in 2022 exceeded those in each month of 2021, except for March and June.
It may be recalled that March 2021 was the last month in which the LBTT tax-holiday applied in Scotland – which explains the higher number of sales that occurred in that month. Similarly, June 2021 was the last month of the SDLT tax-holiday in England – which wouldn’t have saved money for those buying a property in Scotland, but may have acted as an incentive for those moving to Scotland from England, so as to maximise the value of the home being sold.
Table 4 (next) provides a listing of the local authority areas ranked by the number of sales in excess of or equal to £750,000 for the years from 2018 – 2022.
Transactions analysis
Figure 2 below shows the monthly transaction count for purchases during the period from January 2007 to December 2022, based on Ros (Registers of Scotland) figures for the Date of Entry (December 2022 totals are based on Ros Application dates).
The graph starts in 2007, which was something of an exception, with close to 150,000 domestic property sales in the calendar year. The 2007 sales total is the largest of the last 18 years, although the period from 2004 to 2006 came close, with an average 139,000 sales on an annual basis.
However, during 2008 the banking industry began to suffer its credit crisis, with home loans becoming difficult to obtain, especially for first time buyers. Accordingly, the number of housing transactions fell to approximately 70,000 per year over the period from 2009 to 2012.
Normality was slowly restored from 2013, with sales rising to a yearly average of 87,500 over the period from 2013 to 2015, rising to an average 102,000 sales per annum from 2016 to 2019.
The effect of the Covid pandemic – which started in March 2020 – can be clearly seen on the graph. Housing transactions in April 2020 plummeted with the arrival of the pandemic, to be followed by a slow rise in sales as confidence began to return. Then followed a period when sales exceeded previous levels, from September 2020, as lifestyle changes and the LBTT tax-holiday pushed up demand – especially for properties with space to allow for working from home.
Figure 2. The number of sales per month recorded by Ros based on entry date from 2007 – 2022 (Link to source Excel)
In Figure 2, three peaks can be seen after March 2020: in October 2020 (pent-up demand from the low transaction levels earlier in 2020) and March and June 2021 (LBTT and SDLT tax-holidays encouraging sales in both Scotland and England). In the first eleven months of 2022, transaction levels have averaged 8,563 sales per month, which closely matches the average 8,610 sales per month recorded in the first eleven months of 2019 – the last full year prior to Covid.
Heat Map
The heat map below shows the rate of house price growth for the 12 months ending December 2022. As reported above, 29 of the 32 local authority areas in Scotland have seen a rise in their average property values over the last year, the three exceptions being Aberdeen City, the Scottish Borders and Stirling. The highest increase on the mainland over the twelve months to December 2022 was in East Renfrewshire at 17.7%. 6 of the 32 local authority areas had price growth of 10.0% or higher – four fewer than in November 2022.
