Walker Fraser Steele House Price Index for Scotland – November 2024
- Sales easily outpace 2023
- Prices in November up only 0.8% on an annual basis
- Fewer authorities report price rises
- Average Scottish house price now – £223,094, 0.6% down on October, up 0.8% annually
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments: “Scotland’s housing market has seen a gradual recovery in 2024. While house prices have reached record highs in some areas, overall growth has been modest. November saw a slight dip in average prices, down £1,400 (-0.6%) from October, leaving the average price at £223,000—up just 1% year-on-year.
“Only 11 local authorities recorded rising prices in November, with Angus achieving a new record average price of nearly £199,000. This marks the highest average house price ever recorded in the area. Overall, 19 authorities reported higher prices compared to a year ago, though growth has slowed recently.
“Sales activity remained strong, with an estimated 8,800 transactions in November, 10% higher than the previous year. With the Scottish Fiscal Commission forecasting price growth through 2028/29, the market is expected to strengthen in 2025, though tax policy changes and broader economic trends may influence activity.”
Detailed Housing market commentary
Table 1. Average prices in Scotland year to November 2024
| Month | Yearear | Property Price | Index | Monthly % change | Annual % change | ||||||
| Nov | 2023 | £221,272 | 289.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Dec | 2023 | £220,389 | 288.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | ||||||
| Jan | 2024 | £220,377 | 288.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Feb | 2024 | £220,333 | 288.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | ||||||
| Mar | 2024 | £222,345 | 291.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | ||||||
| Apr | 2024 | £224,828 | 294.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 | ||||||
| May | 2024 | £225,503 | 295.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | ||||||
| Jun | 2024 | £224,715 | 294.3 | -0.3 | 1.7 | ||||||
| Jul | 2024 | £224,536 | 294.1 | -0.1 | 1.6 | ||||||
| Aug | 2024 | £225,450 | 295.3 | 0.4 | 2.0 | ||||||
| Sep | 2024 | £225,599 | 295.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | ||||||
| Oct | 2024 | £224,450 | 294.0 | -0.5 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Nov | 2024 | £223,094 | 292.2 | -0.6 | 0.8 |
Scotland’s housing market has experienced a somewhat unusual recovery in 2024. While house prices nationally have hit fresh record highs on several occasions, the overall pace of recovery of house prices in this country has been modest, impacted by earlier cost-of-living pressures and higher mortgages rates on household budgets.
Figure 1. Year-on-year price gains drift lower
Despite a continuing recovery in sales activity, prices in November fell back by nearly £1,400 (0.6%) compared with October. Following a similar fall in October, average prices now stand a little over £223,000 and are barely 1% higher than a year ago (see Figure 1).
Local Authority prices
Table 2. How prices in November 2024 compare
| Rank | Prior Year Rank | Local authority | Nov 2023 | Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | Monthly % chg | Annual % chg | ||||||||
| 1 | (1) | East Renfrewshire | £348,574 | £357,918 | £354,192 | -1.0% | 1.6% | ||||||||
| 2 | (2) | City Of Edinburgh | £337,835 | £329,469 | £329,177 | -0.1% | -2.6% | ||||||||
| 3 | (3) | East Lothian | £322,784 | £333,559 | £324,453 | -2.7% | 0.5% | ||||||||
| 4 | (4) | East Dunbartonshire | £311,192 | £298,455 | £298,633 | 0.1% | -4.0% | ||||||||
| 5 | (5) | Midlothian | £302,479 | £285,613 | £281,995 | -1.3% | -6.8% | ||||||||
| 6 | (6) | Stirling | £282,585 | £262,939 | £264,134 | 0.5% | -6.5% | ||||||||
| 7 | (7) | Perth and Kinross | £241,373 | £248,854 | £254,403 | 2.2% | 5.4% | ||||||||
| 8 | (8) | West Lothian | £234,717 | £240,138 | £239,216 | -0.4% | 1.9% | ||||||||
| 9 | (9) | Highland | £231,494 | £238,581 | £236,148 | -1.0% | 2.0% | ||||||||
| 10 | (13) | Argyll and Bute | £209,522 | £224,428 | £225,768 | 0.6% | 7.8% | ||||||||
| 11 | (10) | Aberdeenshire | £228,712 | £227,307 | £224,401 | -1.3% | -1.9% | ||||||||
| 12 | (17) | Orkney Islands | £198,621 | £219,779 | £215,408 | -2.0% | 8.5% | ||||||||
| 13 | (15) | Glasgow City | £203,633 | £214,285 | £212,294 | -0.9% | 4.3% | ||||||||
| 14 | (11) | Scottish Borders | £219,369 | £220,401 | £211,335 | -4.1% | -3.7% | ||||||||
| 15 | (12) | Moray | £213,017 | £217,797 | £210,569 | -3.3% | -1.1% | ||||||||
| 16 | (16) | Fife | £200,544 | £210,565 | £207,475 | -1.5% | 3.5% | ||||||||
| 17 | (14) | South Ayrshire | £207,358 | £200,037 | £199,360 | -0.3% | -3.9% | ||||||||
| 18 | (20) | Angus | £187,485 | £195,743 | £198,973 | 1.7% | 6.1% | ||||||||
| 19 | (19) | South Lanarkshire | £192,904 | £198,576 | £196,773 | -0.9% | 2.0% | ||||||||
| 20 | (24) | Renfrewshire | £181,050 | £185,324 | £187,662 | 1.3% | 3.7% | ||||||||
| 21 | (23) | Falkirk | £181,388 | £186,600 | £185,691 | -0.5% | 2.4% | ||||||||
| 22 | (18) | Shetland Islands | £197,602 | £206,220 | £183,264 | -11.1% | -7.3% | ||||||||
| 23 | (21) | Clackmannanshire | £185,193 | £199,279 | £183,194 | -8.1% | -1.1% | ||||||||
| 24 | (22) | Aberdeen City | £184,173 | £186,904 | £181,977 | -2.6% | -1.2% | ||||||||
| 25 | (25) | Dumfries and Galloway | £177,488 | £176,684 | £181,488 | 2.7% | 2.3% | ||||||||
| 26 | (28) | North Lanarkshire | £160,664 | £170,605 | £171,754 | 0.7% | 6.9% | ||||||||
| 27 | (26) | Na h-Eileanan Siar | £177,015 | £151,392 | £160,247 | 5.8% | -9.5% | ||||||||
| 28 | (27) | Dundee City | £162,816 | £160,215 | £159,434 | -0.5% | -2.1% | ||||||||
| 29 | (29) | East Ayrshire | £148,593 | £149,062 | £153,886 | 3.2% | 3.6% | ||||||||
| 30 | (30) | North Ayrshire | £148,265 | £152,937 | £149,272 | -2.4% | 0.7% | ||||||||
| 31 | (32) | Inverclyde | £135,908 | £144,997 | £147,852 | 2.0% | 8.8% | ||||||||
| 32 | (31) | West Dunbartonshire | £144,788 | £147,179 | £146,684 | -0.3% | 1.3% | ||||||||
| Scotland | £221,272 | £224,450 | £223,094 | -0.6% | 0.8% |
Note: Lines shaded in darker blue reflect cases where Local Authority or Scotland prices reached record highs this month.
Market conditions across Scotland appear to have softened recently. In November only 11 local authorities recorded rising prices in the month while 21 reported price falls.
Angus was the only local authority to set a new market high – nearly £199,000 – in November (see Table 2). Numerous authorities have hit fresh peaks over 2024 and remain within touching distance of them now, whilst Perth and Kinross, where average prices are more than £254,000, is close to topping its previous high set in 2022.
Figure 2. How prices have changed year to November 2004, by local authority
As can be seen from the heat map, a majority of local authorities (19) continue to report stronger prices than a year ago. That said, the net balance of those doing so is noticeably less compelling than we have seen over the past six months or so.
Among the “risers”, six reported price increases of at least 5% over the year. Among these, Inverclyde merits a mention for continuing the strong performance that it began at the start of 2024. At the other end of the spectrum, Na h-Eileanan Siar (formerly Western Isles) which has shown year-on-year weakness since mid-year shared the mantle of significant “faller” with several other authorities in November, e.g., Shetland down -7.3% while in contrast Orkney was up 8.5%.
Transactions analysis
Although we do not yet have the final numbers for October and November, with property sales for the two months not yet fully logged by Registers of Scotland, it is clear that November was another strong month for sales.
Figure 3. Monthly sales over the most recent 12 months compared with a year earlier
Note: Figures for latest two months are Acadata estimates
We estimate that there were about 8,800 sales in the month, about 10% higher than a year ago (see Figure 3). Sales activity has in fact outpaced that of a year earlier in eight of the 11 months of 2024 for which we have data, with cumulative sales for the January-November period tracking 6% above the same period of 2023.
Meanwhile, as Figure 4 shows, sales in the capital and sales of properties worth more than £750,000 (that is, subject to the highest rates of LBTT) continue to be significantly ahead of their corresponding 2023 numbers. Even with incomplete figures for October and November, reported sales of such properties already exceed the full-year 2023 outturns.
Figure 4. Monthly sales in 2023 and 2024, Edinburgh and homes over £750,000
Note: Vertical bars show 2023 sales and horizontal markers show 2024 sales. Figures for October and November 2024 have been greyed out because they are likely to be revised upwards when final Registers of Scotland figures are available.
Despite the somewhat lacklustre year for the housing market it was much better than had been expected by the Scottish Fiscal Commission who had forecast a fall in prices, somewhat akin to many analysts’ views of what might happen south of the border. The RICS housing market survey for Scotland in November was altogether quite positive with agreed sales higher and price and sales expectations up. The general positivity no doubt helped influence the Commission which revised its price forecasts up for future years, with year-on-year growth expected through to 2028/29, the end of their forecast.
Their expectations are not dissimilar to those of other analysts, suggesting the market in Scotland will move ahead in 2025 rather more strongly than it has in 2024, even though we still have one month to report on in 2024.
Having said that the government will be reviewing its Lands and Building Transfer Tax policy during 2025 and that may have implications for activity levels. We must await the outcome first although of course the impact of the higher Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS) introduced in early December will already be working its way through the market.
