Holyrood elections 2026: Second opinion poll predicts breakthrough for new Independence Party

ALLIANCE TO LIBERATE SCOTLAND ON COURSE FOR LECTION BREAKTHROUGH?

  • Tommy Sheridan in Glasgow and Craig Murray in Lothians East set to be elected to Holyrood alongside other Alliance to Liberate Scotland candidates

The Alliance to Liberate Scotland says two recent opinion polls conducted by Find Out Now point to a breakthrough result for the new pro-independence party at the Holyrood election on 7 May.

The respected polling company conducted two Scotland-wide surveys of 1,000 voters on behalf of the party, one in late March and the second in late April. The striking feature of both polls is their consistency.

In the late March poll, 8% of voters said they were either “definitely” or “very likely” to vote for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland. In the late April poll, 6% of voters said they were “definitely” or “very likely” to support the party on the regional list, which Find Out Now rounded up to 7%.

That matters because around 6% of the regional vote is widely regarded as the threshold for winning a seat in many of Scotland’s regional contests. On that basis, the two polls suggest the Alliance to Liberate Scotland is in genuine breakthrough territory.

Smaller regional samples also point in the same direction. In Glasgow, Tommy Sheridan’s support is shown fluctuating between 5% and 7%. In the 2021 election, the final regional seat in Glasgow was won by the Conservatives on just 6.1%, placing Sheridan within striking distance of election.

Although pollsters caution that smaller samples are less reliable than the standard national sample of 1,000, the repeated pattern across Glasgow, Lothians East and the national polling suggests rising support for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland across Scotland.

Commenting on the latest poll, Glasgow lead candidate and former two-term MSP Tommy Sheridan said: “One poll predicting an Alliance to Liberate Scotland breakthrough is encouraging.

“Two polls, with remarkable consistency, predicting support on the regional vote at between 6% and 8%, is a very real sign that the Alliance is fast becoming the choice of independence supporters who understand that SNP list votes are wasted votes.

“As more people grasp the two-vote system, more SNP supporters are realising their constituency vote for SNP matters, but their regional vote for SNP is futile. That approach helped unionist parties in 2016 and 2021. In 2021 the SNP won only two regional seats out of 56 contested, despite attracting over one million votes.

“Now independence supporters are increasingly choosing to give their regional vote to the party that makes independence its sole priority: the Alliance to Liberate Scotland.”

Sheridan added: “As the reality of the voting system becomes clearer, independence supporters can see the opportunity before them. The regional vote should not be wasted on the SNP, and it should not be diverted to the Greens, whose obsession with gender identity and culture-war politics has increasingly overshadowed the central mission of securing Scotland’s freedom.

“Genuine independence supporters are choosing to give their regional vote to the Alliance To Liberate Scotland over the Greens because they know independence is simply not a priority for the Greens.

“The Greens prioritise gender identity politics over Scotland’s freedom and that’s why independence activists are deciding to back the single-issue Alliance to Liberate Scotland party.”

Poll predicts breakthrough for new Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party

Sensational’ Opinion Poll Predicts Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party Breakthrough in May – Tommy Sheridan and Craig Murray set for election to the Scottish Parliament?

Find Out Now is a reputable opinion polling organisation belonging to the British Opinion Polling Council. They were commissioned by former MEP Hugh Kerr to add three specific questions to their monthly poll of Scottish opinion regarding the forthcoming election of May 7th – and the results are outstanding for the new Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party which was only officially registered with the Electoral Commission in February.

Find Out Now specifically asked voters in the Glasgow Region, the Lothians East Region and across Scotland if they would consider voting for the Scottish independence party at May’s election. Around 500 voters were polled in Glasgow and Lothians East and 1,000 voters were polled nationally.

In Glasgow former MSP and well-known independence campaigner Tommy Sheridan is the lead candidate for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party.

In the critical ‘Definitely’ of ‘Very Likely’ category 7% of voters said they would vote for the Alliance Party and Sheridan which would mean Sheridan’s re-election to Holyrood. In past elections 5% of the regional list vote has been enough to be elected and last time in 2021 the 7th list seat in Glasgow was won by the Tories on 6.1%. This opinion poll predicts Sheridan will replace a Tory to represent the Glasgow Region.

The poll across Lothians East where former British Ambassador and outspoken champion of Scottish independence Craig Murray is leading the Alliance to Liberate Scotland election challenge the result is even better.

A ‘very encouraging’ 8% of voters say they are definite or very likely Alliance voters, and that level of support will see Craig Murray elected in place of another Tory.

At a national level the level of support is also extremely encouraging for the new Alliance Party. Across 1,000 voters polled a significant8% say they will vote for the single-issue party on May 7th.

The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party are promoting only one issue and that issue is Scottish independence. If the support for the Alliance stays as high as 8% or increases the new party will send 8 MSPs to the Scottish Parliament on a mission to pursue Scottish independence as the priority issue.

In most of the regional list seats around 6% of the list votes is enough to secure election and win one of the seven regional seats. With the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party running at 8% it seems an electoral breakthrough is certain.

Alliance for Liberate Scotland has four candidates in Glasgow, Tommy Sheridan, Dhruva Kumar, Gail Sheridan and Hilda McMahon.

Lead Alliance candidate in Glasgow Tommy Sheridan said: “This opinion poll is sensational for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party. We were only registered in February and are not yet widely known but our determination to make Scottish independence the primary issue is clearly attracting votes from those sick and tired of Westminster corruption and the constant exploitation of Scotland.

“Independence supporters in Glasgow know list votes for SNP don’t count for them because they win the constituency seats. This poll shows I will take a list seat from a unionist Tory. That is good news for Glasgow and Scotland.

“I will demand our independence from Westminster is front and centre of the agenda after May’s election”.

Responding to the polling which suggests he is in line for election to the Scottish Parliament Craig Murray said: “More and more independence voters realise the utter folly of giving Regional List votes to the SNP. They simply don’t count because the voting system penalises parties that do well in constituency votes. The SNP will win most constituencies which is why they win no List seats.

“By giving their List votes to the Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party the independence community is blocking unionists from Labour and the Tories and racists like Reform from getting elected. They understand a List vote for the Alliance helps the independence cause”.

The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party is standing in all eight of the regional list seats with over 32 candidates. They are also fielding candidates in several constituency seats in protest at the lack of progress by the SNP in advancing the cause of Scottish independence.