Tag: child poverty

TOMORROW: SCOTLAND DEMANDS BETTER

TOMORROW, Saturday 25th October, Child Poverty Action Group – alongside other members of the End Child Poverty Coalition – will be joining charities, community organisations, faith groups, trade unions and many more in a march from Holyrood to the Meadows in Edinburgh (writes CPAG Scotland’s MARIA MARSHALL). 

#ScotlandDemandsBetter has been organised to give organisations and individuals in Scotland an opportunity to make their voices heard and demand that politicians make the change needed so that every household in Scotland can thrive. 

Signs we are on the right track…

In a lot of ways, we have seen progress to tackle child poverty in the past several years, at least here in Scotland.

The passing of the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act in 2017 was a watershed moment. Following the abandoning of child poverty targets by the UK Government in 2015, the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act ( unanimously backed by all of Holyrood’s parties) set targets for child poverty reduction and requirements such as a tackling child poverty delivery plan to be published by the Scottish Government every four years. 

The result of this cross-government, cross-party effort in Scotland has been to sharpen the minds of those who hold the power and drive real and tangible progress for families. 

Since then, we have seen the introduction and expansion of the Scottish child payment (SCP), first introduced in February 2021 and now worth £27.15 a week for every eligible child under 16.

This has made a real difference for many low income families.

Along with other members of End Child Poverty and the Scotland Demands Better movement we are now calling for immediate and sustained increases in its value so that it reaches £55 per week by the end of the next parliament. Investing further in the Scottish child payment is the most direct and cost-effective tool available to the Scottish government to further reduce child poverty. 

SCP is one of a suite of policy interventions in the first two delivery plans including; Best Start Foods and Best Start grant (replacing Healthy Start and Sure Start in the UK), an expanded offer of 1,140 hours of funded early learning and childcare, increased focus on parental employability support and the expansion of universal free school meals in primary schools (despite subsequent backtracking on promises for universal provision for P6-7 pupils too…)

Of all the interventions taken, it is the increased investment in social security in Scotland that is behind the diverging trend confirmed in the latest child poverty statistics which saw child poverty in Scotland fall by four percentage points, while rising (once again) UK-wide. Steps in the right direction for sure.    

We’ve come some way, but not far enough

So on the one hand, we have seen some real success. In December last year, research commissioned by CPAG on the costs of raising a child, found that the gap between costs and incomes for families in Scotland was narrower than the rest of the UK. However, this same research found that Scotland’s lowest-income families are still left with less than half the income they need for a minimum socially acceptable standard of living. 

Despite showing that progress had been made, this year’s child poverty statistics also confirmed that over one in five children in Scotland are still growing up in poverty. For those children, for all children, we are demanding better. 

We can shout about the progress made, but for families living on the sharp end of the cost of living crisis, this will ring hollow.  Summer holidays this year too often brought more stress and anxiety for Scottish parents than opportunities to learn and play. Like Hope, parent and participant in the Changing Realities project, who wrote in July:

“Already it has been a bit stressful. The kids are constantly hungry and “bored”  then hungry again. Which means more food shopping. I can’t afford summer clubs/camps (tennis, football, multi sports, water sports etc) as they are coming in at around £40 a day and some of them state you have to bring your own packed lunches … I also am embarrassed to take the kids to a food bank this year. So if my oldest boy is in I’ll get him to watch my youngest and tell them “I’m going shopping.”

Too many families are being denied the security and opportunity to thrive that we all deserve. But looking to the future, there should be reason to feel hope.  

Standing at the crossroads

We now have two governments, UK and Scotland, who have made a commitment to tackling child poverty. Campaigners are anxiously awaiting the UK child poverty strategy due to be published this Autumn.

Next year’s elections in Scotland also provide an opportunity for all parties, MSPs and candidates to commit to building on the progress made and delivering a better future for all of Scotland’s children.

In theory, we are at the cusp of a real opportunity for making progress on tackling child poverty. But we can also risk losing our way…

Will we build on the progress made in Scotland to meet the 2030 targets? Will the UK Government pull the levers in their power such as scrapping the two-child limit and benefit cap to move us in the right direction together?

Or will we see a stalling in Scotland, resting on existing progress and unable to keep up with the rising costs squeezing low-income families? Will the UK strategy fail to tackle the true drivers of rising child poverty such as the slashing of social security support in the past 15 years?

Walking with hope

In May last year, parents from the Changing Realities project launched their own campaign ‘Hope Starts Here’ with the aim to change the narrative on the progress we need to see by shifting the focus on the potential that all children have.

One parent, Faith, expressed that: “I hope that my children will be able to have endless possibilities of what and who they want to become in the future when they grow up. There is a big world waiting out there for them.”

Faith’s words encapsulate why members of the End Child Poverty coalition will be marching together to demand better for our children. All children should have endless possibilities of what and who they want to be when they grow up. 

Better is possible. There is already ambition across the political spectrum to tackle child poverty. We now need to see the two-child limit and benefit cap scrapped at UK level, and in Scotland we need all parties to set out a clear path that will deliver year on year progress towards the 2030 targets, so that every child in Scotland can have the best possible start in life.

If you’re in Edinburgh on Saturday, please join us.

More funding to tackle child poverty

Increased support for local initiatives

Projects aimed at tackling child poverty across the country will receive increased, multi-year funding thanks to a boost from the Scottish Government.  

Successful applicants to the third round of the Child Poverty Practice Accelerator Fund, now worth more than £1.8 million, will receive grants of up to £100,000 over two years to improve local services.  

The Scottish Government has already invested over £1.4 million to support 21 projects across Scotland over the first two rounds of the fund, having launched in 2023. 

Previous grants have been used to improve the use of data to identify families who need support, to improve access to financial advice services, and to support parents to engage with employability services.  

The fund sits alongside other innovative measures, such as the Five Family Payments, including the Scottish Child Payment, which are helping to reduce child poverty in Scotland.  

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said: “Eradicating child poverty, supporting families and giving children the best start in life are the driving principles of this government. 

“That’s why, alongside a range of measures, we have reopened this fund to help local authorities and health boards to go further, aiding the collective effort to confine child poverty to history.

“Work through the fund has previously helped maximise income and to tackle household debt, which is vital to easing the strains felt by households as the cost of living rises, and I look forward to receiving many innovative proposals.

“Our collective measures mean that Scotland remains the only part of the UK where child poverty levels are falling.  

“We should recognise that progress, but we must not forget that one child living in poverty is one too many. We are laser-focussed on addressing the challenges faced by households across the country, and this fund is another step towards eradicating child poverty.”  

Transformation Project Manager at North Ayrshire Council Tracy Simpson said: “The fund supported the council on our journey towards implementing a North Ayrshire Single Shared Assessment model.

“Being involved in the fund’s project network provided an opportunity to share learning and experiences across local authorities and ideas from others helped shape work that could be replicated at North Ayrshire.

“Expanding our network and having access to key contacts has helped us to raise awareness at a government level about the key challenges faced around data reuse to maximise customer entitlements and target unmet need across the public sector. The support provided from the Scottish Government was exceptional.”

The Child Poverty Practice Accelerator Fund strengthens the collaborative efforts to tackle child poverty between the Scottish Government and local partners. Elsewhere, through the Fairer Futures Partnerships (FFPs), the Scottish Government is working with local authorities to test and improve services to better help families living in poverty.  

Last month, the First Minister announced an extension to the FFP programme with support now available in 16 regions.

This included expanding to Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh, South Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian, meeting a Programme for Government commitment to work to identify further adopters in addition to three new partnerships in Fife, North Lanarkshire and Shetland this year.  

The proportion of Scottish children living in absolute poverty has reached its lowest level in 30 years and the latest figures (for 2023-24) show that the rates of both relative and absolute child poverty in Scotland were 9 percentage points lower than the UK average.   

Applications are open until Friday 21 November 2025. 

Swinney: Eradicating child poverty “a truly national mission”

First Minister leads summit with front-line practitioners

First Minister John Swinney has described his priority of eradicating child poverty in Scotland as “a truly national mission” and our “moral imperative” ahead of an event in Glasgow.

Addressing over 500 delegates from across the public and third sectors, the First Minister also announced that more families across Scotland are set to benefit from investment in innovative projects that join up local services, making it easier for people to access the support they need. 

Through the Fairer Futures Partnerships (FFP), the Scottish Government is collaborating with local councils to test and improve services to better help families living in poverty. These partnerships bring together a range of services, across childcare, education, health and social care, housing, employment and beyond, to provide whole family support.

Building on the success in three pathfinder areas, and eight existing FFPs, the Scottish Government is now expanding these partnerships into five new areas – Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh, South Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian. 

Speaking ahead of the event, the First Minister said: “When I became First Minister, I said that I will pursue priorities that will make Scotland the best our country can be, and the most important priority that I have pursued in Government has been that of eradicating child poverty.

“The cornerstone of our approach is investment in more dignified and generous social security support, through game-changing measures like the Scottish Child Payment, and ending the UK Government’s two-child limit.

“However, there are still far too many children growing up hungry, or cold, and unable to reach their full potential. In a country as wealthy as Scotland, that is unacceptable.

“It is my firm believe that nothing that is wrong with Scotland can’t be fixed by what is right in Scotland, and whole family support – which is about redesigning the system, both for the people who deliver vital services and for the people who rely on them – is key to that.

“And it is already happening, right now, in areas across Scotland, where local authorities and their partners are already testing new and innovative ways of working together – reshaping and redesigning services in close partnership with local communities. But we need to see this in all areas of Scotland.

“Through the Fairer Futures Partnerships, backed by £4 million investment this year, we are working hand-in-hand with local authorities, communities, and the third sector to deliver real, lasting change. And we are now rolling this out into even more areas of Scotland, allowing us to test and scale up what works, ensuring every child in Scotland can thrive. 

“I want to shine a light on the good work that is happening, encourage knowledge-sharing, hear directly from people about what is working well and how the Government can support them to make whole family support a reality in all areas of the country.

“It is our truly national mission to ensure that no child in Scotland grows up in poverty. It is everybody’s business, and our moral imperative – because there is no greater long-term investment we can make in our future and our success as a nation.”

The five newly-announced Fairer Futures Partnerships (FFPs) build on the work of: the Social Innovation Partnership since 2016; the three original partnership projects in Dundee, Glasgow and Clackmannanshire; the five FFPs in Aberdeen City, East Ayrshire, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire and Perth & Kinross announced in the 2024-25 Programme for Government; and the further three in Fife, North Lanarkshire and Shetland announced in the 2025-26 Programme for Government.  

Alongside this, Scottish Government is making up to £1.12 million “Adopt and Adapt” funding available to local authorities not currently engaged in Fairer Futures Partnerships. This funding is provided to support councils’ efforts to access and engage with the learning and evaluation programme, and to embed relevant learning in their local work on child poverty.

fairer-futures-partnerships-evaluation-strategyDownload

STV Children’s Appeal Ignite Fund support for local charities

SCRAN ACADEMY and THE YARD to receive a share of over £1m to help put a stop to child poverty in Scotland

Three Edinburgh children’s charities have been named among 11 Scottish organisations as partners of STV Children’s Appeal’s new Ignite Fund. 

Each charity will receive a share of £1 million this year through the funding programme created to deliver ongoing financial and non-financial support to children, young people and family charities in Scotland.

Since its inception in 2011, STV Children’s Appeal has invested in long-term projects with charitable organisations. The Ignite Fund, a key part of the Appeal, will continue to provide sustained, multi-year financial and development aid to charities across the country to help break the cycle of child poverty in Scotland. 

The Edinburgh charities which will receive funding are:

  • Scran Academy which is a catering social enterprise empowering young people to realise their full potential through transformational education and employability programmes;
  • based in Edinburgh and operating Scotland wide is Place2Be & Youth Scotland which equips youth workers and Peer Leaders with the tools to provide vital support for young people’s mental health and wellbeing, and
  • The Yard which has a play and family support centre for disabled children in Edinburgh as well as other cities across Scotland.

These charities were chosen for their commitment to offering tangible, scalable solutions which tackle the root causes of poverty – an ethos shared by the Ignite Fund.

The STV Children’s Appeal will work closely with Ignite partners to identify goals, needs, and opportunities for growth, aiming to drive both immediate improvements and lasting systemic change.

The initiative will include the launch of the Ignite Academy which will offer charity partners access to STV’s in-house expertise (such as marketing, communications, and creative), while fostering a peer network for knowledge-sharing and collaboration.

Natalie Wright, Head of STV Children’s Appeal, said: “At STV Children’s Appeal, we have always focused on ensuring the funding we give is well thought through and with a purpose, which is exactly what we are doing with The Ignite Fund.

“Our experience shows that a sustained approach to our partnerships gives real results which make an immediate and lasting impact to those who need it most.

“We’re excited to welcome Place2Be back to continue our successful partnership, and to have The Yard and Scran Academy on board for the beginning of a fruitful relationship which will change lives.”

Scran Academy is in its first year of partnership with STV Children’s Appeal and provides meaningful youth-led education, employment and skills-building programmes through innovative catering social enterprises, helping young people realise their full potential.

The STV Children’s Appeal’s Ignite Fund will allow Scran Academy to reach younger age groups earlier, generate systemic change, and build capacity by opening new youth-led cafes, including one in the Royal Hospital for Children and Young People, opening this summer.

Scran Academy Founder and Chair, John Loughton said: “This is the largest single investment in Scran, and we couldn’t be more thrilled. This funding will create hundreds of new employment and training opportunities for young people across Lothian. 

“Our team will keep driving lifechanging impact across education, enterprise and community development, led by the communities we serve. As Founder, I know at Scran we trust and believe that folk facing poverty are the solutions to their own lives – we see what they can do, not what they don’t have.

“Thank you to the STV Children’s Appeal, one of Scotland’s most forward-looking funders. We’re ready to get to work and quite literally, Cater for the Future.”

The Yard, which has a play and family support centre in Edinburgh, is dedicated to improving the lives of disabled children, young people, and their families across Scotland. Their mission is to create thriving, supportive communities that enhance the well-being of families facing the challenges of disability.

The organisation will be supported by the Ignite Fund for the first time as it sets out on its five-year strategy to expand its impact, improve inclusion, and ensure sustainable growth.

Celine Sinclair, CEO at the Yard, said: “The Ignite Fund partnership couldn’t have come at a better time for us at The Yard.

“Our Edinburgh based play and education centre is a thriving community space which makes a huge difference to the families we work with, and this new funding and support will help us grow and develop our team which will ultimately let us continue expanding across Scotland and helping more families than ever.”

Place2Be, a children’s mental health charity providing counselling and support to UK schools. In partnership with Youth Scotland, the national charity for community-based youth work development, they are setting out to equip community-based youth workers with the essential knowledge and understanding of young people’s mental health, and the skills and confidence to better support their emotional needs.

Michele Meehan, Head of Youth Work Programmes at Youth Scotland said: “The Ignite fund has allowed Place2Be and Youth Scotland to work together to create a suite of programmes and resources for youth workers in the community which are needed to support young people with the issues they currently face.”

Find out how you can get involved: stv.tv/appeal

MSPs seek views on effective social security spending

MSPs on Holyrood’s Social Justice and Social Security Committee are seeking views on the positive and negative aspects of growing social security spend in Scotland.

The Committee has launched a call for views to help inform its scrutiny of next year’s Scottish Budget. The devolution of social security payments started in 2016 and since then the Scottish Government has introduced policies that are specific to Scotland, like the Scottish Child Payment and greater funding for Adult Disability Payment and carer benefits.

A key theme in the Committee’s inquiry will be the interplay between different policy decisions taken by the UK and Scottish Governments.

The choices that the Scottish Government has made have meant that this year the Scottish Government is spending £1.2 billion more on social security policies than it gets in funding for social security from the UK Government.

Any changes to disability payments by the UK Government could change the funding the Scottish Government receives. In this context, the Committee is asking how much the Scottish Government’s ability to manage the devolved social security budget is affected by UK Government policy choices.

The Committee also wants to hear people’s views on the most cost-effective ways to reduce child poverty and the advantages and disadvantages of universal benefits compared to those targeted at low-income households.

Collette Stevenson MSP, Convener of the Social Justice and Social Security Committee, said: “The Scottish Government has invested in social security with the aim of tackling specific challenges in our society. As we look towards the next Scottish Budget, we would like to hear your views on the effectiveness of this approach.

“We’re keen to hear from people who receive social security benefits, and organisations who provide advice or support, government agencies and public bodies and anyone with expertise or interest in social security spending and public finances.

“Our call for views is open for responses until 17 August 2025. We then plan to take evidence on the issues raised over the autumn.”

Find out more about the Committee’s inquiry into future social security spending

Share your views on future social security spending

Targeting funding at frontline services

Financial strategy and action plan published

Savings rising to £2.6 billion in 2029-30 will ensure funding can be targeted at frontline services such as the NHS, social security, action to eradicate child poverty and other priorities.

Under the five-year Medium Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan the Scottish Government will:

  • increase value for public money, with affordable and sustainable investment plans set out through a Scottish Spending Review in December
  • improve efficiencies and productivity across the public sector by using more technology and automation while improving collaboration between public bodies
  • reform public services, doing more with available resources and prioritising people with the greatest need
  • reduce the public sector workforce by an average of 0.5% every year until 2030 while protecting frontline services
  • invest in preventative measures to reduce demand on services such as health, social care and justice

The strategy and action plan also include measures to support sustainable, inclusive economic growth and ensure a strategic approach to tax policy that considers longer term impacts and competitiveness.

Finance Secretary Shona Robison said: ““With the world facing profound economic uncertainty this Medium Term Financial Strategy is being published in deeply challenging circumstances. Those challenges have been exacerbated by the actions of the UK Government, whose decisions continue to have serious consequences for the delivery of our public services.

“Managing the impact of Westminster austerity is all too familiar. In spite of this we continue to invest in the people of Scotland, supporting a better paid public sector, delivering high-quality public services and providing welfare support that is not available in other parts of the UK. And we have done this while delivering a balanced budget every single year.

“Fiscal sustainability is about more than balancing the books – it’s about delivering value, driving reform and making strategic choices that support long-term growth. By focusing on efficient public spending, modernising services, growing our economy and taking a strategic approach to tax, we can build a stronger, fairer Scotland.”

Medium Term Financial Strategy 2025

Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan 2025

SCOTLAND TO SCRAP THE CAP

Scottish Government scrapping the two child limit to help end child poverty

The Scottish Government will effectively scrap the impact of the two-child limit from 2nd March 2026, Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville has confirmed.

On a visit to Busy Bees Bellfield parent and toddler group in Portobello, Ms Somerville said the introduction of the Two Child Limit Payment will mean 20,000 fewer children will be living in relative poverty in 2026-27, according to Scottish Government modelling.

Speaking ahead of a statement to parliament on the publication of the annual report on Best Start, Bright Futures, the Scottish Government’s child poverty strategy, Ms Somerville said: “The Scottish Government has consistently called on the UK Government to end the two-child cap.

“Reports suggest that they are looking at the impact it is having. But the evidence is clear and families and Scotland can’t wait any longer for the UK Government to make up its mind to do the right thing and scrap the cap once and for all.

“The Two Child Limit Payment will begin accepting applications in March next year. At less than 15 months from when we announced this in the Scottish budget, this will be the fastest that a Scottish social security benefit has been delivered.

“This builds upon the considerable action we have taken in Scotland, including delivering unparalleled financial support through our Scottish Child Payment, investing to clear school meal debts, and continuing to support almost 10,000 children by mitigating the UK Government’s Benefit Cap as fully as possible.

“However, austerity decisions taken by the UK Government are holding back Scotland’s progress. Modelling published in March makes clear that if the UK Government act decisively on child poverty, they could help to take an estimated 100,000 children out of poverty this year.”

The two child limit cap was introduced by the UK Conservative Government in 2017. Since their Westminster victory last year Keir Starmer’s Labour government has refused to scrap the cap.

Poverty Alliance: Child Maintenance Service ‘failing far too many children’

#ChildMaintenance is a vital tool to support children on low incomes. But the system isn’t working for too many households. We can make it better.

Read the Poverty Alliance research with@FifeGingerbread and others – supported by the @RobertsonTrust:

https://povertyalliance.org/child-maintenance/

Child-Maintenance-Report-FinalDownload

UK Government urged to abandon ‘immoral’ disability benefit cuts

Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville has written to UK Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, calling for an urgent change to the UK Government’s “immoral and reckless” social security reforms.

Ms Somerville welcomed the suggestion by Prime Minister Keir Starmer that cuts to winter fuel payment could be eased, but said this was not enough.

In the letter the Social Justice Secretary said: ‘I was pleased to hear the Prime Minister announce plans to ease the Winter Fuel Payment cuts in Parliament last week.

‘I am also aware of various media reports suggesting that a change in the UK Government’s two-child limit may be announced shortly. I welcome these developments and recognise that it is a step in the right direction to delivering a more robust Social Security system.

‘However, deep concerns remain around the UK government’s damaging social security reforms, including those announced in the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper.

‘Given the speculation on the reversal or partial reversal of policies on Winter Fuel Payment and Two Child Cap, I call on you to urgently scrap these immoral proposals on disabled benefits.

‘These plans will only push more into poverty. It is therefore reckless and totally unacceptable for the UK Government to press ahead, not least due to the expected severity of the impact they will have on all our efforts to end child poverty – completely undermining the work of the UK Child Poverty Taskforce.’ 

Child Poverty: A step in the right direction

FRASER OF ALLANDER INSTITUTE ANALYSIS

This week, the Scottish Government released headline child poverty statistics for 2023-24. The big headline is: we’ve missed the interim child poverty targets. But what does that mean? And what comes next (write Fraser of Allander Institute’s HANNAH RANDOLPH, EMMA CONGREVE and CHIRSTY McFADYEN)?

What do the new statistics say?

First, our usual note on the data: poverty rates are usually presented as a three-year average. The pandemic interrupted data collection, so any period including 2020-21 is actually a two-year average omitting that year – although the latest data point is back to a true three-year average. The interim and final child poverty targets set out in legislation are single-year rates, though, so we needed to hit 18% relative poverty in 2023-24 to meet the interim targets.

Without further ado, the new child poverty statistics are compared to the corresponding interim targets in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Child poverty rates and interim targets

Three-year rateSingle-year rateInterim target
by 2023/24
2020-232021-242022/232023/24
Relative poverty2423262218
Absolute poverty2120231714
Low income and material deprivation——1298
Persistent poverty——17238

Source: Scottish Government
Notes: The questions on material deprivation changed in 2023/24, so single-year rates are not directly comparable and a three-year rate for 2021-24 has not been calculated. Rates of persistent poverty are calculated for 2018-22 and 2019-23; someone is counted as in persistent poverty in 2019-23 if they were in poverty for three or more of the four years in that period.

In sum, three of the four main measures of child poverty have fallen since last year – but not by enough to meet any of the interim targets.

How close were we to meeting the targets?

The measure of combined low income and material deprivation came closest to meeting the interim target, 9% vs. an 8% target. The relative and absolute poverty measures came in 4 and 3 percentage points above the targets, respectively (see Chart 1). It’s fair to note that the confidence intervals around these measures are relatively wide due to data limitations.

Chart 1: Relative and absolute poverty after housing costs, 2015/16 – 2023/24

Two trend lines showing relatively stable relative and absolute child poverty rates in Scotland form 2015/16 to 2023/24.

Source: Scottish Government
Notes: Three-year rates for periods including 2020/21 are two-year averages omitting 2020/21. The single-year rate for 2020/21 is not shown.

It’s promising that these three measures also fell from last year. The fourth measure, persistent poverty, is based on a different survey and can be relatively volatile.

Nevertheless, it’s concerning that persistent poverty, representing the proportion of children who live in relative poverty for three or more of the last four years, has risen from 17% to 23%. The rate is much higher than the interim target of 8%. However, there may be data issues driving at least part of the change – there’s potentially a lot to unpack there.

Have policies like the Scottish Child Payment made a difference?

The new data for 2023/24 represent the first year when all children under 16 in households receiving qualifying benefits got £25 per week for the full year.

As a reminder:

  • The Scottish Child Payment (SCP) was introduced for children under 6 in eligible households at £10 per week in February 2021;
  • The amount increased to £20 per week, per child in November 2021;
  • A system of bridging payments was introduced in 2022 for children under 16; and
  • Eligibility was extended to children under 16 and the payment was increased to £25 per week, per child in November 2022.

There has been some discussion of whether or not the Family Resources Survey (the survey Scotland’s child poverty statistics are based on) was accurately capturing receipt of SCP. There have been updates to the data methodology, and we’re confident that SCP is accurately represented in this year’s data. Read more on this issue here.

The new statistics today show a fall in relative and absolute poverty since last year. But it’s difficult to say what would have happened to child poverty rates in the absence of SCP; the most straightforward way to tell is to compare trends in child poverty across Scotland and the rest of the UK, where SCP is not available (see Chart 2).

Chart 2: Relative child poverty trends, Scotland vs. UK

Two trend lines showing relative child poverty in Scotland and the UK, where Scotland's rate is below that of the UK.

Source: Scottish Government and DWP
Notes: All rates are single-year statistics. The single-year rates for 2020/21 are not shown.

With this year’s data, we see an indication that the trend in child poverty rates since SCP was introduced may have started to diverge – but only time will tell.

The Scottish Government has also released new modelling this morning updating the estimated impact of different policies on child poverty in future years. Previous modelling from last year estimated the impact of measures like the Scottish Child Payment through this year; today’s modelling extends this period to 2029/30.

The new modelling estimates that the SCP will reduce relative child poverty by 4 percentage points in 2025/26 compared to what it would have been without it. This is slightly larger than, but similar to, JRF’s estimate of 3 percentage points.

The modelling also includes estimates of the impact of different welfare reforms at the UK level. The UK Government is due to come out with their plan to tackle child poverty in the coming months, and it will be worth watching to see what they build into their plans and how they will affect Scotland.

We expect to put a blog post out next week talking through recent modelling of potential policies, both with devolved and reserved powers. Stay tuned – and in the meantime, check out our report on a few policy packages that could meet the 2030/31 targets.

What happens next?

It’s not set out in the legislation what happens if the interim targets are not met.

Regardless, we now expect attentions to turn to the 2030/31 targets. The targets are:

  • Less than 10% of children in relative poverty;
  • Less than 5% of children in absolute poverty;
  • Less than 5% of children in combined low income and material deprivation; and
  • Less than 5% of children in persistent poverty.

No big policy changes have gone into effect in the last couple of years – so we don’t expect to see a big step change in next year’s statistics (for 2024/25) either.

In December, the Scottish Government announced that they would mitigate the UK-level two-child limit on Universal Credit from 2026/27 (or sooner if possible).

Recent estimates show that mitigation could reduce child poverty by between one and two percentage points.

That leaves a long way to go to the 2030 targets. The Scottish Government has a number of levers available to them, but may be constrained by a tough fiscal environment. They will also have to respond to choices made by the UK Government, such as the recent cuts to disability benefits.

We’ll be looking out for the final child poverty delivery plan, which will be published next spring and will hopefully lay out the Government’s plans to reach the targets. There will also be a lot to dig into as next year’s Holyrood elections approach and different parties set out their plans to meet the targets in their manifestos.

To read more about potential policy packages to meet the 2030 targets, check out our latest modelling report here.