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New research conducted by Carers Trust and policy and research consultancy Public First predicts a shortfall of up to ONE MILLION unpaid carers within a generation.

The expected shortfall is calculated from new projections that draw on current trends and future forecasts. It highlights how intense demand for care from an ageing society is set to outstrip the supply of care available unpaid, from family members and friends at an ever-increasing rate over the next two decades.

The shortfall is the difference between the projected ‘demand’ for carers based on the rising number of people with care needs (7.8 million carers needed by 2050) and the ‘supply’ of carers based on the profile of people who care today (6.7 million carers available by 2050).

Under this projection, the number of people able to provide unpaid care will fail to keep pace with ever-greater need, while paid social care – including care homes and home care – will not expand in line with need. this leads to a shortfall of 600,000 unpaid carers by 2035, and an even more alarming one of one million by 2050.

Such a shortfall would have a crippling impact on the provision of care across the UK: a greater number of people would be left with unmet care needs; overall capacity to provide care would be further stretched; and more families and friends would need to step in to fill gaps – from providing sporadic hours of care to caring for multiple people at once.

These changes would have a potentially devastating knock-on effect on unpaid carers’ wellbeing, employment, and the economy.

With care pressures expected to increase across the board in coming years, the research also found that:

• 10.3m people will need care by 2050, up from 8.4m in 2025
• 1.2m unpaid carers already provide care hours that equate to a full-time job
• 1.6m unpaid carers will be in poverty by 2035, rising to over 2m by 2050

The research predicts that the number of people in need of care will have soared by almost two million between 2025 and 2050. Over the same period, without action, the supply of both paid and unpaid care will grow at a much slower rate, thereby failing to keep pace.

These changes are already taking place in society. Over the last 10 years the supply of carers has not increased with rising need, and the average burden on each carer has increased. In the absence of action, the rate at which the gap opening up between supply and demand for care will only quicken over time.

The research comes at a time when Baroness Casey is running her ‘Big Conversation’ amongst the public into the future of social care and follows the announcement by the Prime Minister that he will use what ‘political capital he has’ to reform the system. 

Louise Casey has already identified that the work of unpaid carers is one of the main reasons the system continues to function.  This research shows that, if nothing changes, this will cease to be the case, with knock on effects on the NHS,  public services and the economy.

Carers Trust, as the largest UK charity supporting unpaid carers through its network of 130 local services, is also highlighting the impact on unpaid carers of the current levels of care they are undertaking:

• Fewer than three in ten unpaid carers providing care for more than 35 hours a week are in paid work.
• Mental and physical health outcomes are consistently worse for unpaid carers than for non-carers.
• Unpaid carers are more likely to live in poverty than the broader population, with living conditions worst for those with the most intense caring roles.

Around three in five people in the UK will become carers at some point in their lives. This can happen overnight, often through circumstances that are impossible to predict or plan, such as a family member being diagnosed with a long-term illness or the birth of a child with a disability.

Kirsty McHugh, Chief Executive of Carers Trust, said: “Almost all of us will either care for a loved one or be cared for in turn at some point in our lives.  However, as a society, we’re simply not facing up to that fact.

“The gap between soaring demand and shrinking supply of care is opening up like a crocodile’s jaws and, unless we act now, it’s unpaid carers, those they care for, and the system itself that will be swallowed whole.

“This grim future is on the horizon, but there is still time to avoid it if we are willing to do the political hard yards now. The Prime Minister’s commitment to fixing our broken social care system is encouraging, but reform needs to focus on more than care home beds, budgets, and the paid workforce. It has to reckon frankly and fairly with the millions of unpaid carers that are holding the system together – at huge personal cost.

“It could be you, your mother, brother, or child who needs care in the future, or who becomes a carer in turn. We cannot go on asking unpaid carers to absorb yet more pressure, and we cannot let the worst-case scenario set out in this research become our reality.

“We need well-funded local support that reaches carers before they hit crisis point, real, comprehensive financial and wellbeing support, and a system that recognises carers as essential and equal, not invisible and expendable.”

Andrew Harrop, Director at Public First, said: “Today family carers provide the lion’s share of support for people with care needs. But Public First’s projections show that the future supply of carers may not keep up with the demand. In 10 years’ time the UK may need 600,000 more people to care than are in a position to do so.

“The number of people with care needs is rising quickly, because more people are reaching late old age. Meanwhile the number in the generation below who typically provide care is barely increasing.

“The shortfall in carers will mean that more people’s needs go unmet and more intensive pressures on those who are able to care.”