Thousands of older people will be alone this Christmas – but a card can make all the difference

Call out for Edinburgh locals to join schools and businesses in sending a card to a chronically isolated, local older person this Christmas through Vintage Vibes

Edinburgh-based charity project, Vintage Vibes today announced the launch of their Christmas Card Campaign to ensure lonely and isolated older people in the city receive a Christmas card this year.

Since 2017, Vintage Vibes has asked thousands of local people to write Christmas cards to isolated older people in the city by sending them a profile of someone who will be lonely this festive season – and this year more than ever they need the public to get involved!

Edinburgh locals are invited to show their support by visiting Vintage Vibes’ website, where they can donate and receive a profile of a local, lonely older person – from Betty who loves cats and crafting, to Edward who puts tomatoes on his cereal!

They can then write a personalised Christmas card to them and send it on to Vintage Vibes in time to distribute for Christmas. All the family can get involved, with Vintage Vibes VIPs loving to receive children’s drawings and crafts as part of the card!

One female VIP who spent Christmas day alone last year told Vintage Vibes: “Sitting here on my own, receiving your cards and letters gives me something to look forward to. It does make such a difference, thank you.”

With new findings from the University of Glasgow and data from a UK Biobank study, showing the devastating impact social isolation can have on older people – the need for inclusion and meaningful connections has never been greater.

Findings showed, those aged over the age of fifty-seven, who experienced more than one form of social isolation, such as often feeling lonely, not seeing friends or family, or living alone for a prolonged period had a 77% higher risk of dying earlier.

As one of The Edinburgh Playhouse’s Charities of the Year, Vintage Vibes teamed up with staff at the theatre to launch this year’s campaign which is designed to make older people, who might be alone over the festive season, feel valued and remembered.

Georgia Artus, Development Manager at Vintage Vibes said: “During the pandemic, we all got a taste isolation many older people suffer daily.

“Sadly, for a great many, that isolation will continue without the support of Vintage Vibes and our wonderful network of volunteers. 

“Edinburgh is one of the loneliest cities in the UK for older people and we know something as simple as receiving a Christmas card can make all the difference to someone who will be alone over the festive period. I would encourage anyone to get involved, it is easy to do and makes such a difference.”

Claire McCarragher, Deputy Customer Experience Manager: “We at The Edinburgh Playhouse are delighted to be taking part in this year’s Vintage Vibes, Christmas Card Campaign.

“The staff are looking forward to connecting with the VIPs and making their festive period a little bit brighter.”

To take part in Vintage Vibes’ Christmas Card Campaign and make this Christmas special for a local lonely older person visit vintagevibes.org.uk.

Up to £600 winter support for pensioners arriving in bank accounts

Payments of up to £600 are landing directly in the bank accounts of around 11.5 million UK pensioners for the second year running

  • Comes as part of extensive Government package helping people of all ages, including recent £300 Cost of Living payments to more than seven million eligible households.
  • After meeting our pledge to halve inflation, the UK Government this week also confirmed an 8.5 percent increase to the State Pension next year.

Pensioners across the country have started to receive up to £600 to help with energy bills this winter.

Winter Fuel Payments – boosted again this year by an additional £300 per household Pensioner Cost of Living payment – will land in bank accounts over the next two months, the vast majority automatically.

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride said: “We have delivered on our promise to halve inflation and will continue to support people right across the country, including pensioners who may be facing particular challenges over the colder months.

“As well as up to £600 to help our pensioners stay warm this winter, we’re boosting pensions through the Triple Lock – increasing the full rate of the New State Pension by over £900 next year.”

The money will appear in bank statements with the payment reference starting with the customer’s National Insurance number followed by ‘DWP WFP’ for people in Great Britain, or ‘DFC WFP’ for people in Northern Ireland.

The overwhelming majority of Winter Fuel Payments are paid automatically but some people need to make a claim, such as those who qualify but do not receive benefits or the State Pension and have never previously received a Winter Fuel Payment. The payments deliver additional support to pensioners, the majority of whom are on fixed incomes and also are unable to raise their incomes through fixed employment.

The start of the Winter Fuel Payments season comes hot on the heels of the recent £300 Cost of Living payments made by the DWP to more than seven million eligible households across the UK.

This latest payment is the second of up to three Cost of Living Payments being made this financial year. These payments – which are all tax-free and will not have any impact on existing benefit awards – demonstrate the Government’s commitment to supporting low-income families with financial pressures.

Pensioners getting Pension Credit also qualify for this extra support. The average Pension Credit award is now worth £3,900 per year and there is still time for those who are eligible to apply and receive the £300 Cost of Living payment. 

This is because an eligible claim for Pension Credit can be backdated by three months provided the entitlement conditions are met throughout that time.

Including measures announced in the Autumn Statement this week, our total commitment to ease cost of living pressures has risen to £104 billion. That includes paying around half the cost of the average energy bill since last October and amounts to an average of £3,700 per household.

Black Friday: Cyber security expert warns shoppers to be vigilant

CYBER criminals will be looking to exploit shoppers during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales – an expert from cyber security firm CSS Assure has warned.

With UK consumers planning to spend an estimated £5.6bn on Black Friday (24 November) and Cyber Monday (27 November) purchases this year, Charlotte Riley, director of information security at technology at CSS Assure, said bargain hunters lowering their guards during the rush to bag the best deals are at greater risk of malicious threats.

Charlotte said: “In the run-up to and during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, many outlets will run promotional offers to encourage spending. This is a potentially lucrative time of year for cyber criminals as they know shoppers are less vigilant as they rush to snap up the best deals.

“Cyber criminals will no doubt be looking to take advantage of the vast amount of transactions taking place and the financial information being shared as a result. There is also an increase in promotional email traffic, which makes it hard to differentiate the real bargains from scams – presenting a heightened risk of phishing attacks.

“With this in mind, it is important consumers take steps to protect themselves and their families during two of the biggest shopping days of the year.”

Password management

“Firstly, shoppers should think about the last time they changed their passwords, especially on important accounts. If their passwords are dated then strongly consider changing them, and, if possible, use a password management solution to ensure they are unique and appropriately complex.

“While this is a faff, it is the single greatest defence you can make to protect yourself against a cyber attack and will instantly make you much safer online. Adding an extra layer of security like two-factor authentication can prevent unauthorised access even if someone gets hold of your password.

“Currently, there are millions of emails and passwords for sale on the dark web, which have been breached by companies that have not protected people’s personal data sufficiently. Cyber criminals can buy this data for minimal amounts of money and gain access to your emails.

“They will look for social media accounts and online high street accounts and test your combination to gain access. From this, they can gather more personal data until they have enough to conduct identity theft, which could result in credit being taken out in your name or using your saved payment cards to make online purchases, for example.”

Personal data breach identification

“It is a good idea to understand whether your data has been breached so you can put in place other necessary measures to protect yourself. To do this you can use a free service provided by Have I Been Pwned. All you need to do is enter your email address and the site will tell you whether it is associated with a breach and if so, what other data has been stolen.

“If you have been breached, it is even more important that you change your password to break the chain. Next, you need to understand whether you have been entered into any spambots – as the name suggests, these are bots that send spam to you.

“While some spam is laughable, others are highly credible. If you’re rushing, there’s a higher change you will click a link in a spam email, which could execute malware or ransomware on your device.

“A blended strategy is best for rectifying and avoiding your exposure to spam – and, in turn, the chances of clicking on a malicious link.

“Start by enabling and customising your email provider’s spam filters to automatically detect and redirect suspicious emails to the spam folder. These settings – as well as your security and privacy options – should also be regularly reviewed or adjusted. Unsubscribe from unwanted newsletters or promotional emails, and make spam emails as junk within your email platform.

“Some email services offer the option to create disposable or temporary email addresses for specific purposes. This way if the address gets compromised or spammed, you can easily discard it without affecting your primary email. You should also be cautious about sharing your email address on public forums, social media, or unfamiliar websites to minimise exposure to potential spammers.

“While these may seem to be arduous tasks, they are effective and vital ways to protect yourself.”

Check your anti-virus protection

“Finally, make sure your anti-virus protection is installed, activated with a valid licence and updated. While free anti-virus software is available, in life you get what you pay for and it may not protect you sufficiently. Competition to provide the best anti-virus changes year on year between the main vendors as they achieve technology breakthroughs in response to the evolution in cyber threats.

“The best thing to do is check reputable tech websites for reviews of the best current anti-virus software. We recommend buying a one-year licence, and then when it comes to renew, assess which company has moved to the forefront of anti-malware protection. There will always be new customer deals to be had.”

Deck the Halls of Hope with “Make Christmas Count” campaign

Festive campaign run by Make 2nds Count aims to raise £15,000 for Transformative Retreats to support Patients with Secondary Breast Cancer

Make 2nds Count, a leading non-profit organisation dedicated to supporting individuals living with secondary breast cancer, has today announced the launch of its annual Christmas campaign, “Make Christmas Count” which aims to raise £15,000 for transformative retreats.

The heart-warming initiative invites individuals to join hands in adorning the Tree of Hope with special baubles, symbolising support and solidarity for families and patients facing the challenges of secondary breast cancer.

Every year, Make 2nds Count strives to make a significant impact on the lives of individuals battling secondary breast cancer. This year, the organisation is introducing a new initiative to extend its support, with the sale of specially designed Christmas baubles. All proceeds from these sales will directly contribute towards funding the organisation’s dedicated retreats for patients in 2024.

Make 2nds Count Retreats serve as invaluable sanctuaries for members of the community affected by secondary breast cancer. They offer a respite from the demanding routine of constant treatment, providing a nurturing environment for relaxation and emotional rejuvenation.

In 2023, Make 2nds Count was able to host Retreats for 106 guests in various locations across the UK. The goal for 2024 is to increase this offering, enabling even more individuals to benefit from these transformative experiences.

Recent feedback from the Castle Bromwich retreat, held in September 2023, highlights the importance of these Retreats:

“The Castle Bromwich retreat has been such a wonderful relaxing experience. We’ve met so many women just like us, at all stages of the ‘living with’ journey. We feel lifted and listened to, encouraged and most of all relaxed and happy.

“We’ve had led sessions and time to get to know each other. We are all leaving with a new family and friendships to support us.”

“This has been a wonderful time to relax and take time out. The care and cosseting we have had will not be forgotten and will keep me going for a long time. Thank you so much.”

Make 2nds Count is also proud to collaborate with Spark, a charitable organisation dedicated to combating social isolation within communities to create bespoke baubles.

These Christmas decorations will be crafted by the skilled hands at Spark, further illustrating the power of community-driven initiatives.

For more information on Make 2nds Count and their work, please visit: 

www.make2ndscount.co.uk

Tourist Tax: Views sought to help shape a visitor levy for Edinburgh

Residents and visitors are once again being invited to have their say on Edinburgh’s plans to introduce a charge on all overnight stays.

new survey launched yesterday (Thursday 23 November) will gather views on the council’s proposals for a visitor levy. The feedback will be used to develop formal public consultation in the spring of 2024.

The questionnaire follows the same format to market research carried out back in 2018 which showed strong support for the introduction of a levy in the city. Since then, Edinburgh’s proposals have been developed further alongside the long-awaited Visitor Levy (Scotland) Bill, which was introduced to Parliament in May.

The Bill means Scotland may be the first place in the UK to legislate for a visitor levy next year, giving local authorities the ability to introduce charges such as those already widespread across Europe. 

The survey forms part of ongoing engagement work with industry and stakeholders, with officers seeking views on the shape and size of the levy, who it should apply to, and how the funds raised should be invested.

Further industry engagement includes meetings with the Edinburgh Hotels Association (EHA) and Edinburgh Tourism Action Group (ETAG). A series of one-to-one and group meetings with local and national tourism groups and other local government officials is also continuing to take place.

Council Leader Cammy Day said:A levy presents a major opportunity for us to generate millions of pounds in additional revenue to support, sustain and develop the city and our visitor economy – just as so many other major cities do so successfully. 

“We already know from the consultation exercise we carried out back in 2018 that the idea has overwhelming support here in Edinburgh, with 85% backing the introduction of a levy. And our citywide Tourism Strategy 2030 makes clear the need to manage Edinburgh’s enduring appeal as a visitor destination more sustainably. 

“Edinburgh was recently recognised as the most sustainable travel destination in Europe by the World Travel Awards, which is testament to the work we’ve already put in with our partners, but visitor numbers are edging back up towards pre-pandemic levels.

“A visitor levy is a way of trying to rebalance the debate and make sure positives are brought back to the industry, to the city, and to our local communities. We need to continue to manage the impacts of tourism while investing in everything that makes our city such a great place to visit and to live. 

“While this came across loud and clear earlier this month, when the council and over 30 other witnesses provided the Scottish Parliament with evidence for the Visitor Levy (Scotland) Bill, a lot has changed since we last sought views from our residents and visitors. We want to make sure our assumptions are up to date and we’re giving everyone the chance to shape our proposals. Please take this chance to have your say.

Donald Emslie, Chair of the Edinburgh Tourism Action Group (ETAG), said: “As the national legislation to introduce a visitor levy is progressed, it is essential that there are early and ongoing discussions to ensure that the levy proposals for Edinburgh are introduced effectively and achieve the aim of managing the growth of the city’s thriving visitor economy, benefiting businesses, residents and visitors.

The survey will be open until Friday 17 January 2024. 

Dobbies’ Edinburgh stores welcome donations for Cash for Kids’ gift drive

Dobbies, the UK’s leading garden centre, is announcing a collaboration with grant-giving charity, Cash for Kids, to give children in need a gift this Christmas. Dobbies’ Edinburgh store and Stockbridge little dobbies will host a gift donation drop-off point for the charity’s Mission Christmas initiative.

Mission Christmas is set to make a difference to children and young people in communities across the UK who are affected by poverty, illness, neglect or have additional needs. This initiative aims to spread the joy that comes with unwrapping a Christmas present on Christmas Day. 

Dobbies now invites customers along to its drop-off point at its Edinburgh stores, encouraging those who can, to bring a gift and help Santa reach young people in need this year.

Dobbies’ Community & CSR Communications Executive, Chloe Bell, said: “There’s nothing like the joy of unwrapping a Christmas present on Christmas Day, especially for a child. It’s disheartening to think that, due to circumstances beyond their control, some children might miss out on this magical experience. 

“We are delighted to be partnering with Cash for Kids to make Christmas extra special for these young people. We hope that the spirit of Christmas, centred around sharing and giving, inspires everyone to donate a present or two at our Edinburgh stores.”

Victoria Hendry, Charity Manager from Cash for Kids added: “We believe every child deserves the magic of Christmas and teaming up with Dobbies allows us to spread joy this year, making a real difference to children and young adults.

“We’re turning generosity into gifts, creating smiles, and ensuring that every child feels the warmth of the festivities.”

Participating stores that have a donation box are; Aberdeen, Ayr, Edinburgh, Dundee, Dunfermline, Livingston, Perth, Stirling, Inverness and little dobbies Stockbridge. For more information on how to get involved, visit dobbies.com.

If you would like to make a financial donation to Cash for Kids’ Mission Christmas to allow them to buy a gift on your behalf, Braehead, Milngavie and Sandyholm have donation pages, visit:

Mission Christmas 2023 with Dobbies Garden Centres | Bauer Radio Cash for Kids – Cash for Kids (cashforkidsgive.co.uk)

Funding to expand Scotland’s medical workforce

Extra training places for doctors in 2024

Record levels of investment will see an additional 153 trainee doctor posts created next year in what will be the largest ever annual expansion.

This level of expansion represents a 2.3% increase above the current whole time equivalent workforce of 6570 trainees.

The additional posts, costing £42m over the next four years, are being funded by the Scottish Government to help meet growing demand in a number of key specialties.

NHS Education for Scotland recommended uplifts in 24 different specialties overall, including anaesthetics, emergency medicine, general practice, intensive care medicine, paediatrics, psychiatry and surgery. Successful applicants will take up their posts in August 2024.

Health Secretary (at time of writing – Ed.) Michael Matheson said: “Funding for these additional places will help to relieve some of the pressures currently facing our health service.

“The level of expansion taking place in 2024 – the largest ever – shows the Scottish Government’s continued investment and commitment to ensure that our health service is equipped to deliver timely and effective care to those who need it.

“Under this government NHS staffing is at a historically high level – up by around 29,100 whole time equivalent.

“We will continue to work with NHS Education for Scotland to support our trainees and ensure that we have a sufficient supply of doctors to meet future demand.”

NHS Education for Scotland Medical Director Emma Watson said: “We welcome this announcement of additional posts across a wide range of specialties and in particular general practice.

“The increase will ensure we can support our doctors to work more flexibly where communities need them. We believe Scotland offers the highest quality medical education. Our trainees are a key part of the NHS workforce of the future – enabling us to offer better quality care and outcomes for every citizen in Scotland.”

Granton Library Link: Can You Help?

RVS LOOKING FOR HOME LIBRARY SERVICE VOLUNTEER

We are looking for some help!

Our lovely Library Link group, which helps people with mobility difficulties to get to the library, is currently without a volunteer.

It runs on Tuesday mornings at 10am fortnightly and would require a commitment of around 3 hours.

The volunteer supports people from their front door onto the bus, during the session (tea and biscuits provided!) and then back home again.

If you think you could help, let us know at Granton library and we will put you in touch with the Royal Voluntary Service who co-ordinate this (Thanks RVS!)

Or follow this link: https://my.royalvoluntaryservice.org.uk/opportunities

Autumn Statement ‘has done nothing to end the living standards and growth crises’

ANALYSIS by TUC’s GEOFF TILY

• The real pay crisis is intensified and now expected to last 20 years.
• The politically charged National Insurance cut makes the smallest dent in the worse squeeze on household incomes since the 1950s.
• While the Chancellor has enjoyed higher revenues, he has chosen to play austerity politics rather than back public services on the brink – £20 billion has been taken from public services to fund the meagre tax cut.
• An ‘Autumn Budget for growth’ has meant the reduced growth in almost every year of the forecast.
• ‘Full expensing’ of capital expenditure is a seriously inefficient way to boost the economy.
• In spite of all the claims to the contrary, the Tories are still presiding over worst deterioration in public finances for more than 100 years.

Real wage and household disposable income crisis unended

The forecasts published alongside the statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) contained alarming news on real wages. According to the OBR forecasts, real wages are now not set to return to 2008 levels until 2028. The current pay squeeze will hit two decades.

This is a significant downgrade on the March forecast, when wages were returning to 2008 levels by 2026 – two years sooner than it now expects.

graph of total average weekly earnings, including OBR forecast

The forecast for broader living standards (as measured by real household disposable income per person) remains dire. After already declining in both the 2020/21 and 2022/23 financial years, further falls are expected over the next two.

While in fact a less bad forecast than March, the OBR stress that living standards “are forecast to be 3½ per cent lower in 2024-25 than their pre-pandemic level … this … represents the largest reduction in real living standards since ONS [Office for National Statistics] records began in the 1950s”.

year-on-year change in RHDI per person

The OBR also put into perspective the 2 per cent cut in National Insurance, reckoning it will boost living standards by around 0.5 per cent at the end of the forecast. This is a minor dent in an immense collapse, and of course as everybody has pointed out only reverses in a small way tax increases at past statements – even on their own terms the government are failing.

Minimum wage

Specifically for those on the minimum wage, the Chancellor has accepted the recommendations of the Low Pay Commission (LPC). This takes the wage floor to £11.44 an hour and extends coverage to everyone aged 21+. This is badly needed and follows pressure from unions and low-pay campaigners. But with prices sky high, and the OBR increasing its inflation forecasts, the minimum wage must be raised to £15 as soon as possible, and extended to all adult workers.

The Low Pay Commission’s recommendations take the minimum wage to 66% of median wages. This is an internationally recognised measure of relative low pay. However, the Chancellor’s claims that he has eliminated low pay should be taken with a pinch of salt. This is a measure of pay distribution which looks at how close low-paid workers are to the median worker. The floor has risen since 2010 but the middle has had no real pay rise over 13 years. The bottom has been catching up, in part, because wages are stagnant for everyone else. The government should set the LPC’s next minimum wage target at 75% of median wages, and this should be delivered alongside a plan for real wage growth for all workers.

Unemployment rise

The OBR has also predicted that unemployment will steadily rise from now until midway through 2025, estimating there will be 275,000 more people in unemployment than at the start of this year. At no point in the OBR forecasts do they predict unemployment will fall below the level at the start of the year.

obr unemployment forecast

It is unfair to put it mildly to penalise individuals for an economic climate which is out of their control.  The Chancellor decided to support compulsory work placements, but analysis show this punitive policy does not result in an improved employment outcome. 

Skills

The Government plans focus largely on reforms coming in for 16-18 year olds, overlooking the skills gap faced by those already in the labour market. On apprenticeships £50m for a 2-year pilot widely misses the mark.  In 2021/22, there were approximately 349,200 apprenticeship starts in England – a 31% decline from the pre-Apprenticeship Levy figures of 509,400 starts in 2015/16 (Source: CIPD). The funds are largely directed at male-dominated sectors, according to the Women’s Budget Group. Other measures are recycled and/or small – though the increase to the pitifully low apprenticeship minimum wage is be welcomed. 

Little has been done to reverse cuts to adult and further education budgets since 2010, with spending still significantly below where it was when the government took office. Celebrating an uptick in Level 4 apprenticeships just repeats the ‘virtuous cycle’ where those with the highest levels of qualification receive the most investment in their training. Graduates get most of the training as working adults, and almost half of adults from the lowest socio-economic group receive no training at all after leaving school.

Social security

It is a low bar for this Government when they boast that benefits are being uprated in line with September’s rate of inflation, which is standard practice. Though they have severed the link between inflation and the uprating of benefits numerous times since 2010 – which has slashed vital financial support for families.

And while the Local Housing Allowance has been restored to the 30th percentile after it was last frozen in 2020, it will be frozen again and support reduced for ever-increasing rental prices.     

There were also significant cuts to benefit entitlements for some people with long term health conditions. They are expected to lose £400 a month compared to current system, and face the threat of sanctions to enter employment.

The rate at which prices are increasing may have slowed, but families are still struggling with the essentials. Over the last two years the cost of energy has increased by 49 percent while food prices have increased by 28 percent.

Energy prices

And energy bills are a glaring omission from this Autumn Statement.

Household energy bills remain 50% higher than they were in the winter of 2021-2022 (approximately £600 higher for an average household). This means that an estimated 6.3 million households are in fuel poverty (spending more than 10% of their income on energy), and more than 1 million households are in extreme fuel poverty (spending 20% or more of their income on energy). (Estimate by Friends of the Earth  and National Energy Action as government data are not yet available.)

Energy prices are expected to remain high or increase. Ofgem today raised the domestic energy price cap by 5%, based on wholesale price volatility.

Many employers will also struggle with rising and volatile energy bills. The UK consistently has some of the highest electricity prices for business in Europe, affecting the ability of UK manufacturers to compete internationally. Unions representing manufacturing workers have consistently campaigned alongside employer bodies for measures to rein in excessive and volatile wholesale energy prices – but these issues seem to be far from the list of priorities of the current Government.

Public services and public finances crises continue

As the OBR gently warn, “it is worth dwelling for a moment on something the Chancellor didn’t announce in his Autumn Statement – which is any major change to departmental spending plans despite significantly higher inflation”.

 The government has added “just” £5 billion a year in cash terms to departmental budgets, and this means that “the real spending power of these budgets is eroded by around £19 billion” relative to the previous forecast (as on their chart below).

change in real total DEL spending from 2022-2023

In 2023-24 the increased budget is allocated for public sector pay increases (£3.9 billion for the NHS in 2023-24, and £0.4 and £1.4 billion for other departments in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively). Overall, the OBR have departmental spending growing by 0.9 per cent a year in real terms, down from 1.1 per cent at the March Budget.  

Given the government’s political priorities on spending, the OBR stress that unprotected departmental spending is projected to fall by between 2.3 and 4.1 per cent a year in real terms from 2025-26. They wryly observe this (austerity) would “present challenges” and cite the Institute for Government’s recent report finding that “performance in eight out of nine major public services has declined since 2010”.  Plainly there is no intention to resolve the crisis in public services and public service recruitment. And ultimately

The public finances overall

For the public finances as a whole, the government has enjoyed a momentary windfall – with less bad than expected growth outturn and higher inflation meaning tax gains (especially with tax thresholds not being uprated) outweighing higher interest and other costs. This has been spent on the NI cut and expensing.

But the Chancellor has made hollow boasts about the improved condition of the public finances. The overall management of the economy for 13 years has meant a disastrous failure for them. Immediately less bad GDP outcomes (next section) have meant marginally improved ratios for this statement. But overall the Conservatives have presided over a huge increase in debt from 65 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 98 per cent of GDP in the current financial year. This is an unprecedented deterioration relative to all economic cycles for more than a century.

Growth crisis unended

At the end of his speech the chancellor proclaimed an “Autumn Statement for Growth”. But nothing announced yesterday changed the bottom line. While the forecasts reflected ONS revisions to GDP data and a less bad than expected 2022, growth over the next two years is revised steeply down. And on a medium term view the OBR warn:

“we have revised DOWN our estimate of the medium-term potential GROWTH rate of the economy to 1.6 per cent, from 1.8 per cent in March” (our emphasis)

The worse growth performance for the UK economy in a century just got worse again.

“Full expensing”

Of the onslaught in policy measures, the most prominent was making permanent the full expensing of business capital investment. The Chancellor chose to disregard OBR analysis showing both precursor measures (the super-deduction and temporary full expensing in the March 2021 and March 2023 Budgets) had a lower impact on investment levels than predicted (see OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November 2023, pp 33 – 34).

Introducing full expensing is forecast by the OBR to lead to an increase in business investment of £14 billion between now and 2028-29 and to cost £29.5 bn over the same period. This would appear then to be an extremely inefficient means of increasing business investment, reflecting huge ‘deadweight’ effects, whereby businesses gain generous tax relief on investment that would (likely) have taken place anyway.

The OBR estimates that the measure will raise the capital stock by 0.2 per cent by 2028-29 – a positive, but small, and very costly impact.

Pension saving

The chancellor also had high hopes for the role workers’ £2.5tn of pension savings could play in boosting our flagging economy. But while there were some welcome steps such as setting up a new growth fund through the British Business Bank the plans rely mostly on merging pension schemes in ways that are unlikely to be in the interests of their members, and leaning on funds to put more money into global private equity. These measures were also over shadowed by a poorly thought through proposal to upend the workplace pension system. See our fuller commentary here.  

Industrial strategy?

As the Chancellor noted, the lack of long-term certainty over policy decisions (including industrial strategy, taxes, and climate commitments) is a drawback to business decisions to invest. But there was no reassurance in the Autumn Statement that the Government would provide that certainty. While reannouncements of investment commitments to support the automotive, advanced manufacturing, and energy sectors – amounting to £4.5 billion are welcome, this represents only a small proportion of the investment requirements of the Biden-style industrial strategy that the UK needs.

Ending the failure  

The failure – as Labour have repeatedly identified – is still a failure of growth. The government need to invest in a stronger economy where growth and fairness go hand in hand, where decent pay means workers spend and businesses produce to meet that spending.  A virtuous cycle comes when businesses invest in the face of expansion and optimism, and stronger public services re-enforce the upward dynamic. Fairer and sustainable growth will then support the public finances.

Yet the government continues to take us in the wrong direction. Yesterday’s Autumn Statement showed more strongly than ever why it is time for a change.

Autumn Statement ‘ushers in new era of welfare reform’

A ‘bold new vision for welfare’ backed by nearly £30 billion has been set out by Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride

  • Millions of people will benefit from next generation of welfare reforms and extra support for those most in need, announced at Autumn Statement
  • Benefits increased by 6.7% and pensions by 8.5%, maintaining commitment to seeing the country through cost of living pressures
  • DWP Secretary Mel Stride heralds new era offering a “brighter future for millions”

The plans offer unprecedented employment and health support to help over a million people, while protecting those in most need from cost of living pressures – including raising pensions and benefits and increasing help with housing costs.  

Long term decisions to provide unprecedented help for people to move off welfare and into work were at the heart of the Government’s plan for growth set out at the Autumn Statement.  

While unemployment has been almost halved since 2010, the £2.5bn Back to Work plan will help thousands of people with disabilities, long-term health conditions and the long-term unemployed, to move into jobs. This comes alongside new guarantees for those on the highest tier of health benefits around keeping benefit support to cushion those who try work.  

The transformative employment programme comes as the Government continues to protect the most vulnerable, delivering a Triple Lock-protected boost for pensioners and raising benefits in line with inflation next year, worth £20bn taken together.  

The changes mean the full rate of the new State Pension will go up by £17.35 per week, while families on Universal Credit will be on average £470 better off next year. 

Around 1.6 million households will also benefit from an increase to the Local Housing Allowance – and will be around £800 a year better off on average. Worth more than £7bn over five years, this commitment will support low-income families in the private rented sector with rent costs and help prevent homelessness.  

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Mel Stride MP said: “Work changes lives. With the next generation of welfare reforms, we will help thousands of people to realise their aspirations and move off benefits into work, while continuing to support the most in need. 

“We are taking long term decisions that will build a brighter future for millions, offering unprecedented support to open up opportunity and grow the economy, building on our record that has seen almost four million more people in work since 2010. 

“Our reforms will remove the barriers to work that we know some people still face, while we’re boosting benefits and pensions to help with cost of living pressures.”

Welfare reforms announced at the Autumn Statement include:  

  • Uprating working age benefits in line with September’s CPI index figure of 6.7%.
  • Uprating state pensions in line with September’s earnings figure of 8.5%.
  • Increasing the Local Housing Allowance to cover the 30TH percentile – worth an average of £830 per year.
  • Expanded jobcentre support including intensive help for those on Universal Credit
  • Introducing the Chance to Work Guarantee, which will tear down barriers to work for millions of claimants to try work with no fear of reassessment or losing their health benefit top-ups.
  • Increasing mental health support for jobseekers by expanding NHS Talking Therapies treatment and the Individual Placement and Support programme, supporting almost 500,000 over five years.
  • Matching 100,000 people per year with existing vacancies and supporting them in that role through Universal Support.
  • Rolling out WorkWell to support people at risk of falling into long-term unemployment due to sickness or disability.
  • Reforming the Work Capability Assessment for new health benefit claimants to better reflect the opportunities available in the modern world of work.
  • Stricter sanctions for people who should be looking for work but aren’t engaging with jobcentre support.
  • Building on the Mansion House reforms with further steps to improve private pension returns and grow the economy.
  • Introducing new Government powers to request data from organisations such as banks when accounts are showing signals of fraud and error.

The Government’s ‘radical new plan’ will stem the flow people falling out of work and onto inactivity benefits due to physical or mental health problems, as it takes the long-term decisions to help people realise their dreams to find a job and build a better life. 

With this unprecedented level of employment support comes tougher enforcement of sanctions for fit and able people who should be looking for work but aren’t. 

Work coaches will use tools to track people’s attendance at jobs fairs and interviews, and close benefit claims of those able to work who have been sanctioned and no longer receiving money after six months.  

Taken together, the package will make sure those who are vulnerable or on the lowest incomes are protected, with intensive support to get them back into work, while ensuring fairness to the taxpayer.  

TORY GOVERNMENT OR TUC – WHO DO YOU BELIEVE ?