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Low Emission Zone begins to tackle Edinburgh’s air pollution problem

LOW EMISSION ZONE BEGINS TO TACKLE EDINBURGH’S AIR POLLUTION PROBLEM

It’s been revealed that Scotland did not breach air pollution limits in 2022 for the first time, excluding the impact of lockdowns in 2020. Campaigners say the improvement in air quality in Edinburgh shows the early benefits of Low Emission Zones, with reductions in pollution from diesel vehicles.

Friends of the Earth Scotland analysed official air pollution data for 2022, looking at two toxic pollutants which are primarily produced by transport. Legal air quality standards came into force in 2010, yet had previously been broken every single year since except 2020 when the lockdowns resulted in a big drop in car journeys.

The provisional data suggests that air quality across Scotland was within legal limits in 2022.

Edinburgh’s Low Emission Zone will formally begin in June this year. To support bus operators to meet the criteria, the Scottish Government has provided grants for buying new buses or retrofitting older buses. This has almost certainly led to air quality improvements on Edinburgh’s busier bus corridors, such as city centre streets.

Many areas across Edinburgh showed reductions in nitrogen dioxide, compared to 2021, with a slight increase on St John’s Road.

St John’s Road also experienced an increase in particulate pollution (PM10), the data suggest. In 2021, there was an annual average of 11.00 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3) for PM10, rising to 14.31 µg/m3 in 2022.

There were year-on-year increases in PM10 across the city. These could be attributed to an increase in car traffic after all Covid-19 restrictions were removed, or a more general increase in commercial activity.

Dirtiest streets for Nitrogen Dioxide

The European Ambient Air Quality Directive set a limit for Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) of 40 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3). The deadline for this limit to have been met was 2010.

Location / NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide Annual mean (µg/m3)

Edinburgh St John’s Road 29.26
Edinburgh Queensferry Road 26.86
Edinburgh Nicolson Street 23.40
Edinburgh Salamander St 18.34
Edinburgh Gorgie Road 17.37
Edinburgh Glasgow Road 15.14
Edinburgh St Leonards 13.09
Edinburgh Currie 4.77

Dirtiest streets for fine particles (PM10)

The Scottish annual statutory standard for particulate matter (PM10) is 18 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3).

Location / PM10 annual mean (µg/m3)

Edinburgh St John’s Road 14.31
Edinburgh Salamander St 14.26
Edinburgh Queensferry Road 13.92
Edinburgh Nicolson Street 12.11
Edinburgh Glasgow Road 11.81
Edinburgh Tower Street 10.01
Edinburgh St Leonards 9.22

Air pollution kills 2,500 people in Scotland each year and puts the population at risk of serious health conditions, like asthma, heart attacks, and strokes. It’s especially harmful to children, the elderly, and people living in poverty or made vulnerable from other health conditions.

Friends of the Earth Scotland’s Transport Campaigner Gavin Thomson said: “Air pollution from transport is responsible for thousands of premature deaths in Scotland every year, and causes serious heart and lung issues, so it’s great that some progress is being made in parts of Edinburgh.

“The provisional data show that the Low Emission Zones and the Scottish Government’s hefty subsidies for operators to buy new buses are having an immediate impact.

“The bad news is there’s persistent diesel pollution on St. John’s Road, and particulate pollution has increased across the whole city. If we want to stop breathing tiny particles that damage our vital organs, we need to change the way we move around. The evidence is clear – the more we can move away from fossil fuels, the more our health is protected”.

Joseph Carter, Head of Asthma and Lung UK Scotland said: “It is good news this year that air pollution on our streets has been kept within its legal limits, yet there is obviously more that can be done. We need the Scottish Government to make tackling air pollution a national priority.

“Air pollution is the biggest environmental threat to public health. At a cost of £1.1bn per year to the NHS, it is draining our resources, straining our health system and cutting short over 2,500 lives a year in Scotland. It is causing new lung conditions like lung cancer, and worsening existing ones.

“With 1 in 5 Scots developing lung conditions like asthma and COPD in their lifetime, for them, it can trigger life-threatening asthma attacks and exacerbations.”

England’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty recently noted that, ‘everyone is affected by air pollution, and it is everyone’s problem’.

Shapps warns energy suppliers to end mistreatment of customers

The Business and Energy Secretary is today calling on suppliers to do more to protect vulnerable energy users

Business and Energy Secretary Grant Shapps backs consumers as offensive launched to crack down on rogue energy suppliers
Energy suppliers told they must stop the practice of forced fitting prepayment meters as the answer to families struggling to pay bills, following a huge surge in cases
The Business Secretary asks suppliers to share data on the number of warrants they have requested for this purpose to name and shame worst offenders

Business and Energy Secretary Grant Shapps has pledged to crack down on the mistreatment of energy users by suppliers, following reports showing some are doing nowhere near enough to support vulnerable customers.

He has written to energy suppliers calling on them to stop the harmful and anxiety inducing practice of forcibly moving consumers over to prepayment meters without taking every step to support consumers in difficulty.

The Business Secretary is asking suppliers to voluntarily commit to stopping this practice and holding their feet to the fire by demanding they share the number of warrants they’ve applied for in recent months.

He wants to see much greater efforts from suppliers to help consumers in payment difficulties before leaping to the extreme of forced prepayment switching, such as offers of additional credit, debt forgiveness or tools such as debt advice. In his letter, he has asked suppliers to discuss possible further action they can take to support customers and avoid forced fitting.

This action is part of a drive to increase transparency around prepayment meter installations, to track down the worst culprits and find out which energy companies are trigger happy in applying for them.

Courts are being overwhelmed with applications for warrants as they continue to mount, with reports that huge batches are being approved in a matter of minutes. The Business Secretary is working with Ofgem and the Secretary of State for Justice to ensure that the process by which suppliers bring these cases to court is fair, transparent and supports vulnerable customers.

Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Grant Shapps, said: “Suppliers are clearly jumping the gun and moving at risk customers onto prepayment meters before offering them the support they are entitled to – I simply cannot believe that every possible alternative has been exhausted in all these cases.

“I am deeply concerned to see reports of customers being switched to prepayment meters against their will, with some disconnected from supply – and quite literally left in the dark.

“Rather than immediately reaching for a new way to extract money out of customers, I want suppliers to stop this practice and lend a more sympathetic ear, offering the kind of forbearance and support that a vulnerable customer struggling to pay should be able to expect.”

This follows reports that the number of customers switched to prepayment meters has soared in recent months, and in many cases unwillingly and without the offer of support. In some instances, this has led to vulnerable customers having their gas and electricity supplies cut off with little or no notice.

Prepayment meters allow customers to pay for gas and electricity on a pay-as-you-go basis and serve an important function by helping the avoidance of debt and court action. A moratorium on forced prepayment switching could lead to an increase in bailiff action and so the Government wishes to avoid going down this route.

Under Ofgem rules forced switching to prepayment must only ever be a last resort but, with the nation battling with energy prices, more have struggled to pay their bills and been forced installations and self-disconnection.

In recognition of this, some energy suppliers are already taking steps to support consumers such as by pausing remote switching of smart meters to prepayment mode or providing additional credit to customers struggling to pay.

The Business Secretary wants all suppliers to step up this kind of support to avoid resorting to forced fitting.

Minister for Energy and Climate Graham Stuart said: “Switching users onto a prepayment plan should only ever be a very last resort and suppliers have a duty to exhaust all other avenues. It cannot be right that, at a time when consumers need compassionate treatment more than ever, so many are being let down in this way.

“The Government will continue to do all we can to ensure families and households stay warm this winter and we’re taking urgent action to bring about greater transparency when it comes to bad energy supplier practice.”

Concerns were also raised around the low number of vouchers being redeemed under the Government’s Energy Bills Support Scheme – meaning many vulnerable households had not had cash knocked off their energy bills.

Suppliers are urged to make every attempt to make sure this happens, with the Government to publish a list of supplier redemption rates – showing who is meeting their responsibilities and who needs to do more.

The Business Secretary is worried about the low uptake of customers on traditional meters in prepayment mode and has demanded more transparent reporting of voucher redemption rates.

He has encouraged traditional meter replacement with smart meters as they are able to receive government support payments automatically and detect self-disconnection.

Mr Shapps has written to Ofgem to ask that they do more to make sure suppliers protect vulnerable consumers. This includes revisiting their approach to enforcing supplier compliance, as well as the urgent publication of recent investigations outcomes into vulnerable customers.

The Minister for Energy and Climate Graham Stuart has asked energy suppliers, Ofgem, Energy UK and Citizens Advice to meet with him at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to discuss matters further next week.

The five-point plan to tackle bad behaviour by energy suppliers comprises the following actions:

A call for suppliers to voluntarily stop the practice of forced prepayment switching as the answer to households struggling to pay bills and make greater effort to help the most vulnerable.
Request of the release of supplier data on the number of warrant applications they have made to forcibly enter homes to install meters.
Urgent publication of a list of supplier redemption rates for the Energy Bills Support Scheme vouchers – showing who is meeting their responsibilities and who needs to do more.
The launch of a Government public information campaign reminding and informing eligible consumers to redeem their Energy Bills Support Scheme vouchers and how to do so. This will be through both advertising and direct communication channels, targeting the most vulnerable and those most likely not to have redeemed vouchers.
Coordination with Ofgem ensure they take a more robust approach to the protection of vulnerable customers and conduct a review to make sure suppliers are complying with rules.

The five-point plan forms part of a wider effort to ensure that energy users are protected at this challenging time and the Government is exploring longer term measures to address this.

Tony Delahoy: Things Remembered

ADVANCE THROUGH BELGIUM – SEPTEMBER 1944

THE 49th Division continued it’s advance, overcoming strong resistance in the area of the town of Poppel. Dates, days and times usually meant very little at the time, but the date of Sunday 18th September cannot be forgotten as the sky was filled with planes and gliders.

Each of these was filled with paratroopers on their way to capture the bridges across the major obstacles of the River Waal at Nijmegan, the River Neder Rein at Arnhem and the town of Arnhem itself. This was to ecome known as Operation Market Garden (made famous in the film A Bridge Too Far – Ed.).

The main allied land forces were to launch a huge simultaneous attack to link up with the paratroppers by going through the twons of Valkenswaard, Eindhoven, Nijmegen and Arnhem and then on to the industrial area of the Ruhr in Germany. Things did not go to plan and the attack was practically halted after some miles by the enemy holding the very few approach roads and bridge crossings of the numerous small rivers and canals. Allied attack movement then became West and East as well as North; all being hampered by the very wet weather and approaching winter.

When Brussels was liberated some troops were given a short peiod of leave; usually two days and staying in an Army hostel. One day I had to pick up one of our men returning from Brussels at a nearby railway station and take him back to his unit; the next day he was killed. this particular death still haunts me. His name was Arthur Brown; he is buried at Bergen op Zoom in Holland and I have visited there a few times, post war.

The Germans were still resisting strongly in many areas. In one village we came under a good deal of shelling by their heavy artillery; the dreaded 88mm gun.

the 88 could fire shells at speeds far greater than the speed of sound so that the firing and explosion of the shell almost occurred together, giving no time to take cover.

One one occassion an 88mm shell landed about 23 feet from me, crouching behind my motorcycle; fortunately the blast did not come in my direction,

Soon after this I was given two days leave in Brussels. The city didn’t appeared damaged and I was able to get into the Palais des Beaux Arts and liten to the Scottish National Orchestra. It was so good to hear music again!

More THINGS REMEMBERED next weekend

Is this the world’s most affordable and energy-efficient Burns Supper?

With inflation sitting at over 9%, the traditional Burns Supper is set to cost consumers more this year, impacting everything from the cost of essential ingredients to energy to cook Scotland’s most famous meal.

To help families enjoy a cost-effective and energy-efficient Burns Supper, on 25 January 2023, Scotland’s no.1 ready meal brand McIntosh has an inflation-busting homemade Haggis, Neeps & Tatties ‘heat and eat’ chilled meal for just £1.25 (RRP: £1.70).

Ready to eat after just 4½ minutes in the microwave, McIntosh believes theirs is one of the cheapest, fastest and most energy-efficient chilled Burns Suppers on the planet! Perfect for those watching their wallets as well as the time-poor.

Throughout January, McIntosh’s popular haggis meal will be available for the special price of £1.25 from leading retailers. At this cost, a family of four can enjoy a Burns Supper for less than a fiver or a single person can ‘hae meat’ and eat for less than a standard single bus fare in Scotland!

Not only that, with meat and plant-based variations available, McIntosh’s single serve haggis ready meals make it easy for everyone to enjoy a Burns Supper this January, including vegetarians and those partaking in Veganuary!

McIntosh has been making family-favourites to traditional Scottish recipes for 50 years in Forfar using locally sourced and home-grown ingredients as much as possible. With every meal cooked and chilled within one hour to lock in vital nutrients, consumers can be assured they pack a nutritious punch to boot! Each haggis meal packs in 15.6g of protein and 9.3g of fibre.

Julie Nisbet, Managing Director of McIntosh says: “With inflation skyrocketing at over 9%, McIntosh wanted to ensure as many families as possible can enjoy a traditional Burns Supper and take part in the annual celebration of our beloved bard, Rabbie Burns.

“Throughout January our popular Haggis, Neeps & Tatties ready meal is available for a budget-busting £1.25 making it perfect for the many trying to keep costs down amid rising food and energy costs.

“You won’t find a cheaper, faster, tastier and more energy-efficient chilled haggis supper this January with a cooking time of just over four minutes!”

McIntosh homemade chilled Haggis, Neeps & Tatties ready meals comprise homemade haggis, British neeps (AKA swede) and Scottish potato mash. Throughout January and ahead of Burns 2023, the haggis meal carries a special price of £1.25 (RRP: £1.70) while stocks last.

This and other McIntosh family favourites are available at all major supermarkets and convenience stores across Scotland including Tesco, Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and SPAR.

McIntosh Chilled Haggis, Neeps & Tatties just £1.25 for Burns Night 2023

Record number of available homes at popular Uphall Station Village site

Range of house types with quick move-in provide “something for everyone”

SEVEN properties are now available to families looking for a quick move-in date at a popular development located just outside Livingston.

Uphall Station Village by Dundas features a range of three, four and five bedroom semi-detached or stand-alone homes which are available at varying price points suitable for first-time buyers, to growing families looking to upsize.

The seven available homes – which range from £248,995 to £436,495 – mark a new record-high for the developer, which is eager to satisfy the demand for family homes in the commuter paradise parish.

Craig Fairfoull, Head of Sales and Marketing at Dundas, said: “At our Uphall Station Village development, there really is something for everyone – a range of house types at various price points that suit individual family needs and circumstances.

“For those looking to kick-start their new property journey as soon as possible, buyers are able to move into the available four-bedroom Crawford house type at the development as early as Spring this year.

“The three-bedroom Elliot house type – which is at the lower end of the price range – is a great option for first-time buyers, whereas the semi-detached Gilroy is perfect for growing families.”

Uphall Station Village is the perfect location for busy, working families and its location provides the ideal mix of idyllic, peaceful living with the hustle and bustle of urban city life approximately 15-minutes away.

Partners Sophie Bell and Lewis Alexander, who recently purchased their first home at Dundas’ Uphall Station Village development, were drawn to the spacious three-bedroom Gilroy house-type – of which there is still one remaining – and purchased the property late last year.

Sophie, 25, said: “Having grown up in the area and currently working in South Gyle, I was keen to live in Uphall Station.

“When we first went to view the development, we really liked the size of the Gilroy house. It was perfect for two people and would give us plenty of room to host friends and family. As Lewis works from home, it also meant that we were able to turn the third bedroom into an office space.

“Although we only moved into Uphall Station Village a few months ago, we are already loving our Gilroy house-type. There is so much space, which means there is lots that we can customise.”

All homes benefit from high-efficiency gas central heating with high-spec thermal insulation, integrated solar panels and high-performance double glazing.

The development’s recently refurbished show home showcases its versatility, with buyers having the space to design their home in a unique way that is ideal for individual needs.

Craig continued: “We have never had so many properties available at one site before at the same time – and so it is the perfect opportunity to build a happy, thriving and tight-knit community at the development.

“We are keen to encourage as many people as possible to come and visit the site so they can witness the benefits of its location and the array of house types which cater to individual preferences.”

Uphall Station Village is close to a wide range of shops and schools including Uphall Primary School, as well as Pumpherston and Uphall Station Community Primary School. Uphall train station is less than 10 minutes away from the development.

Dundas has a mission to create homes that make people feel great. Headquartered in Livingston and proudly Scottish, it has a track record of building well-designed homes that are higher spec than a vast majority of competitor properties.

The independently-owned developer is focused on building welcoming, integrated communities and making the journey of buying a home more straightforward, inspiring and fun.

To find out more about Uphall Station Village, visit:

https://www.dundas.co.uk/developments/uphall-station-village

The show home at Uphall Station Village is available to view daily. For more information, please visit https://www.dundas.co.uk/developments/uphall-station-village, call 0345 853 5000 or email uphallstationvillage@dundas.co.uk

R&D Tax Relief Reform consultation

R&D tax relief reform set to simplify the system and help grow the economy
Clearer information about how much relief business will receive to be offered up front, helping them budget for R&D
Follows £20 billion investment in R&D from government at Autumn Statement and the Chancellor’s pledge to understand how to provide further support for R&D intensive SMEs

The Government has launched a consultation to simplify the UK’s R&D tax relief system, drive innovation and grow the economy.

The 8-week consultation, which runs from 13 January to 13 March 2023, sets out proposals on how a single scheme could be designed and implemented. This would replace the two R&D tax relief schemes currently in place – the Research and Development Expenditure Credit (RDEC) and the small and medium enterprises (SME) R&D relief.

A scheme modelled on the current RDEC for SMEs would also give decision makers in smaller companies clearer information, which will help them set budgets for R&D. In contrast, for those claiming SME tax relief in the current setup, the exact amount of money their firm will receive can only be known with certainty at the end of accounting period.

This is part of the government’s ongoing R&D tax reliefs review, and follows changes announced at Autumn Statement 2022 where the generosities of the two R&D tax schemes were broadly aligned, with the Chancellor pledging to work with industry to understand how to provide further support for R&D intensive SMEs.

The UK’s R&D tax reliefs have an important role to play in encouraging more businesses to invest in R&D, helping them to grow and create the technologies, products and services which reshape lives and livelihoods.

Government spending on R&D plays a crucial role in stimulating private sector investment which is why it is increasing investment to £20 billion a year by 2024-25 – the largest ever increase in a Spending Review period.

Victoria Atkins MP, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, said: “We are focussed on growing the economy – with thriving businesses bringing more jobs, higher pay and more tax revenue to fund our precious public services.

“Getting R&D tax relief right and fit for the future sits at the heart of making sure the UK remains a competitive location for cutting edge research – helping new firms grow.

“I welcome views on the option to simplify the scheme, especially from those who have experience of the existing tax reliefs.”

The UK is unusual in having two schemes and moving to a single measure would simplify the R&D tax system in line with the government’s overall plans for tax simplification.

The government would like to hear from a wide range of sources including individuals, companies, representative and professional bodies, and especially invites comments from research and development intensive businesses and those representing them.

The government recognises the reform to the rates creates challenges for some R&D intensive SMEs and those in the life sciences sector in particular and believes there is merit to the case for further support. Any further changes will be announced in the usual way, at a future fiscal event.

If implemented, the new scheme is expected to be in place from 1 April 2024.

Screen Education Edinburgh: Free film making workshop

In partnership with North Edinburgh Arts, North Edinburgh Community Festival, and West Pilton Neighbourhood Centre, Screen Education Edinburgh are running a free workshop for young people as part of North Edinburgh Film Festival.

There will also be screenings, exhibitions, and talks about the films.

Scotland’s secret snowy peaks are waiting to be discovered this New Year

While Europe’s ski resorts remain snowless, Scotland provides plentiful icy white peaks

Snowy peaks await in Scotland this new year with small-group tour specialist Rabbie’s (www.rabbies.com). Snow is in rare supply across Europe, but on the stunning peaks across Scotland’s iconic mountain ranges, the white stuff is in good supply!

Europe’s snowless ski resorts have hit the headlines in recent weeks, but unbeknownst to many, snow can be found closer to home. Scotland enjoys the most snow in the UK and the nation’s mountain ranges are seasonally coated in snow, with the nation’s highest mountain, Ben Nevis, covered all year round. Scotland’s secret snowy peaks are waiting to be discovered this year with Rabbie’s.

Highlights include:

2-day Loch Ness, Inverness & the Highlands Tour

On this 2-day tour, visitors will wander through the valleys and spy the icy heights of Scotland’s most beautiful mountain passages.

The majestic mountains at the wild heart of the Highlands are synonymous with Scotland and visitors will witness this wild beauty at Cairngorms National Park – here, snow-covered mountain tops await. After, warm up with a strong brew, or an even stronger whisky while exploring the streets of the Capital of the Highlands, Inverness.

Join Rabbie’s Two-Day Loch Ness, Inverness & the Highlands tour departing from Edinburgh from £115 per person.

3-day The Isle of Skye Tour

On this 3-day tour, visitors will visit Scotland’s most beautiful sights, oldest castles, and most iconic island.

The spectacular views of Rannoch Moor, Glencoe and Ben Nevis are the perfect introduction to this unforgettable tour, and this is all before the majestic Eilean Donan Castle.

You’ll also have the chance to explore the stunning Isle of Skye; the wonders of the Old Man of Storr and the pass of the Quiraing which come alive during winter, when Scotland’s mist and colder weather bring the myths and legends alive.

Join Rabbie’s Three-Day The Isle of Skye Tour from Edinburgh from £199 per person.

4-day Isle of Skye & West Highlands

On this 4-day tour, visitors will venture into a rich land of mountains, lochs, and legends. Learn the fascinating myths and tragic bloody past at Glencoe before admiring the impressive Glenfinnan viaduct, the famed route of the Hogwart’s Express.

During January, the snow-capped Cullin Mountains of Elgol are bound to take your breath away. Take in the beauty of Skye before visiting the famous stronghold, Eilean Donan castle.

Join Rabbie’s Four-Day 4-day Isle of Skye & West Highlands from £259 per person.

For more information about Rabbie’s and its tour offerings, visit www.rabbies.com.

Free Food! Cooking with Emma at Drylaw Neighbourhood Centre

Would you like to learn how to cook some new recipes and learn about food, nutrition and looking after your oral health? Sign up for our new cooking course at Drylaw Neighbourhood Centre in partnership with LINKnet Mentoring.

We will be delivering a FREE 6 week course starting Thursday 2nd February from 1pm to 3pm. Come and join us for some fun activities, food and meet new people!

If you would like to know more or to sign up, please contact Emma at emma.hamill@edinburghcommunityfood.org.uk, 0131 467 7326 or sign up online at https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx…

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#The Scottish Government

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#communitycooking #community #cookingclass #freecookingclass #healthyeatingmadeeasy #healthyeatingrecipes #cookclub #sugarreduction #sugar #oralhealth #infantoralhealth #childhoodnutrition #familysmiles #sustainablecooking #nutritionistedinburgh

Inflation continues to loom large as 2023 gets properly underway

This week always feels like a bit of a transition every year – it starts to feel a bit late to say “Happy New Year”, and the start of the week is dubbed “Blue Monday” as people realise that those well-meaning new year resolutions have already been broken (writes Fraser of Allander Director MAIRI SPOWAGE).

One of mine was to think hard to find the optimistic news in what can sometimes feel like the unrelentingly negative economic situation we are in, which is likely to remain tricky throughout the year. I was tested hard this week as new inflation data was released on Wednesday.

Inflation falls to 10.5% – but let’s not get too excited

The ONS released the official inflation data for December, which showed CPI inflation had fallen from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December.

The main items driving the fall in inflation are petrol and diesel prices, and prices for clothing in footwear. Prices at the pump have been falling since their peak in July, and in December they were back to roughly the levels they were at before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Clothing and footwear has fallen really due to a lack of discounting in December 2021, so when compared to December 2022 it appears that prices have fallen.

Obviously, energy prices are still contributing hugely to this very high inflation rate (which, let’s not forget represents a 40 year high of inflation apart from the preceding three months in 2022). That increase is currently stable in the figures due to the UK Government’s Energy Price Guarantee – but this cap on unit prices is only in place until end March, when it increases to £3,000 for a household with typical use. The ONS estimate that this will add 1 percentage point to inflation when it comes into effect.

Worryingly for those on the lowest incomes, food prices continue to increase faster than the headline rate. The inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased to 16.9% in December from 16.5% in November.

We were asked two main questions when the data came out on Wednesday.

The first was, of course – what is the outlook for inflation for the rest of 2023? The expectation by the OBR is that inflation is likely to fall to under 4% by the end of the year. But remember, this does not mean that prices will start to fall at this point – just that they will grow less quickly.

This is somewhat simply due to the definition of inflation – it compares prices now to prices a year earlier, so as we move into October, we will be comparing to the much higher energy costs from October 2022. It was therefore inevitable that growth was likely to slow down – a point to bear in mind when some try to take credit for the fall in inflation.

The second is whether we are likely to see further increases in the Bank of England’s base rate at their next meeting on 2^nd February – especially given that inflation has come down a bit. Unfortunately for mortgage payers, it is still very likely that we will see further increases in the base rate.

Why? Because inflation is not just been driven by food and energy costs. CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI) is at 6.3%, and has been around this level since July 2022. This is being generated by domestic factors, including the tight labour market, which means the Bank is likely to take the view that they need to continue to cool demand in the economy.

Scottish unemployment remains at 3.3%

We also got updated figures on the labour market on Tuesday, covering the three months to November. Scottish unemployment remained at 3.3%, slightly below the UK rate of 3.7%. Employment remains high, at 76.1%, with inactivity at 21.3%.

Changes in inactivity over the period of the pandemic have been a focus of much analysis – because although the level is now similar to before the pandemic, the underlying reasons why people are inactive seem to have changed – with an increasing number saying that they are not in work or seeking work because of ill health or disability.

See a great Twitter thread on this by our colleague Professor Stuart Mcintyre – as part of his monthly analysis of the labour market.

Alongside the headline labour market numbers, there is also information ONS publishes monthly on earnings and vacancies.

The vacancy level alongside the labour market data helps us understand how tight the labour market continues to be. The total number of vacancies has been falling in recent months, since the record highs in Q2 2022. However, the number of vacancies remains historically very high, with 1.0 unemployed people for each vacancy – a rate which remains indicative of a tight labour market.

Earnings (ex bonuses) grew by 6.4% in the year to the three-month period Sept-Nov. Given the inflation rate over this period, this means that earnings are continuing to fall in real terms. In the face of continuing public sector pay disputes across the UK, the split between the public and private sectors is particularly interesting. Private sector pay grew by 7.2% compared to 3.3% for the public sector.

Health Foundation publishes important research into health and health inequalities in Scotland

This week the Health Foundation published a report to provide a picture of health and health inequalities in Scotland, in order to inform future efforts to improve both.

An independent review underpins their report, and we were delighted to work with the Health Foundation on this programme of work, as one of four independent organisations to carry out supporting research. See our research here.

Author: davepickering