Month: January 2024

Walker Fraser Steele November House Price Index

No change in Scotland’s house price over last twelve months

·      East Renfrewshire prices rise by 12.0%

·      Dumfries and Galloway prices fall by -5.4%

·      Transactions down by 12.3% on 2022 levels

Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments: “At a national level, the picture this month shows Scotland’s average house price in November 2023 barely changed over the last year. However, it also reveals some significant regional differences in average house prices over the same period.

“This is remarkable when you consider the affordability pressures experienced by the housing market since the autumn of ’22. The average house price now is just -£16 lower than twelve months earlier and stands at £222,637.

“The reality is that regional hotspots like East Renfrewshire which enjoyed price gains of 12% during the period have been offset by dips elsewhere, such as Dumfries and Galloway which has endured a fall of -5.4%.

“We have also seen variance in property types. Over the last year, the average price of detached properties has increased by +1.2%, and flats by +0.5%, while semi-detached and terraced properties have fallen by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively.

“With underlying trends such as mortgage affordability improving now, more buyers will re-enter the market providing competition for the cash purchasers, who currently represent 36% of all sales in Scotland, which will further boost confidence.”

House Price	Index	Monthly Change %	Annual Change %
£222,637	291.6	-0.3	0.0

Table 1.  Average House Prices in Scotland for the period November 2022 – November 2023

(The prices are end-month smoothed over a 3 month period)

Month		Year		House Price		Index		Monthly Change %		Annual Change %
November		2022		£222,653		291.6		0.1		6.7
December		2022		£222,399		291.3		-0.1		6.5
January		2023		£221,162		289.7		-0.6		4.5
February		2023		£219,827		287.9		-0.6		2.9
March		2023		£219,531		287.5		-0.1		1.3
April		2023		£221,173		289.7		0.7		1.5
May		2023		£223,391		292.6		1.0		1.6
June		2023		£223,831		293.2		0.2		1.4
July		2023		£223,308		292.5		-0.2		0.5
August		2023		£223,079		292.2		-0.1		0.4
September		2023		£223,803		293.1		0.3		0.7
October		2023		£223,403		292.6		-0.2		0.5
November		2023		£222,637		291.6		-0.3		0.0

Note: The Walker Fraser Steele Acadata House Price Index (Scotland) provides the “average of all prices paid for houses”, including those made with cash.

Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst

November’s housing market

Scotland’s average house price in November 2023 has barely changed over the last year, being just £16 lower than twelve months earlier, and now stands at £222,637. Looking at Table 1 above, it can be seen that for eight of the last twelve months, the average house price has been in a range between £222,400 and £223,830, with the peak occurring in June 2023.

However, referring to Table 2 (on page 4 of this report), there is only one local authority area where the annual rate of change in house prices is zero, which is Glasgow City.

All 31 other areas in Scotland will therefore have been seeing some movement in their average house prices over the previous twelve months. Excluding annual price changes in the range of ±1% only removes a further 4 authorities, leaving 27 authorities that have annual price movements in excess of ±1%.

Indeed, an annual rate of ±3.6% would need to be reached before excluding half of the 32 areas in Scotland. It would therefore be wrong to conclude that all of Scotland’s local housing markets have been static over the last twelve months – rather, the more correct conclusion is that “it just so happens” that when you add all the movements in house prices in Scotland together, they sum to minus £16.

A similar picture emerges when looking at property types – over the last year, the average price of detached properties has increased by +1.2%, and flats by +0.5%, while semi-detached and terraced properties have fallen by -1.8% and -0.9% respectively.

Again, the sum of these changes will amount to (minus) £16 – but that is by chance. There are however underlying trends, such as the level of interest rates (discussed later) and the increase in household living costs which will affect all properties, but even then, these factors don’t necessarily apply to all.

Cash purchasers, for example – who currently represent 36% of all sales in Scotland – may be less influenced by high interest rates, compared to having to take out a loan to purchase a property. 

Figure 1.Scotland’s average house price for the period from March 2020 to November 2023

Figure 1 shows how average house prices in Scotland have changed since the start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.

It can be seen that the average price has barely moved over the twelve months from November 2022 to November 2023, although values have risen by £39,640 from March 2020. This increase of 21.7% over the period compares to a figure of 19.7% in the CPIH Index – so in real terms (after allowing for consumer price inflation) the average house price in Scotland since the start of the pandemic has risen by 2.0%.

Local Authority Analysis

Table 2. Average House Prices in Scotland, by local authority area, comparing November 2022, October 2023 and November 2023

Table 2 shows average house prices, calculated on a seasonal- and mix-adjusted basis, by Local Authority Area, for November 2022 and October and November 2023, together with the corresponding percentage price changes over the last month and year.

The ranking figures are based on average house prices in November 2022 and 2023. Line items are shaded in blue in cases where average house prices in the Local Authority Area have experienced record highs in November 2023.

Annual change

The average house price in Scotland in November 2023 has fallen by a minimal £16, or 0.0%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.5% lower than the rate seen in October, one month earlier. This is the lowest annual growth rate since May 2016, some seven and a half years earlier.  

14 of the 32 local authorities in Scotland were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, compared with 17 in October. However, as with the previous month, Edinburgh had the largest fall in prices over the year when measured on a weight-adjusted basis (which takes into account both the number of sales and the nominal fall in its average price of -£7,660), which on its own counterbalanced some 27% of the positive movement in values in the 14 areas with price gains.   

In November, on the mainland, East Renfrewshire had the highest increase in its annual rate of price growth, at 12.0%, which enabled the authority to remain in top position in Table 2 for the third month running.

In fact, East Renfrewshire has occupied first place in Table 2 – indicating it has had the highest average property values – for six of the last twelve months, trumping the City of Edinburgh which has only been in first place for four months over this period. In East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in values over the last twelve months, but particularly semi-detached homes, with average prices rising from £300k in November 2022 to £350k twelve months later.

Staying on the mainland, Midlothian has the second-highest annual growth rate at 10.7%. Again, similar to East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in their average prices, but in Midlothian it is terraced properties that have had the most significant increase, up from an average £205k in November 2022 to £235k one year later.  

At the other end of the scale, the area on the mainland with the largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway, at -5.4%. In Dumfries and Galloway, all property types saw prices fall over the year, with the largest fall on a weight-adjusted basis being terraced homes, down from an average £140k in November 2022 to £125k one year later.

Monthly change

In November 2023, Scotland’s average house price fell by some -£750, or -0.3%, which contrasts with the revised -£400, or -0.2%, change in prices seen in October. This is the seventh monthly fall of 2023: however, as discussed above, it would appear that prices have been gently oscillating over the last eight months, with the average price ranging between £221,000 and £224,000.     

In November 2023, 12 of the 32 Local Authority areas in Scotland experienced rising prices in the month, the same number as in October. The area with the highest increase in its average price in the month was Inverclyde, up by 6.0%, although it still remains the authority with the lowest-priced housing in Scotland. The increase in the area’s price in the month was assisted by the sale of a modern 2-bedroom apartment, in Cloch Road, Gourock, overlooking the Clyde estuary, for £350k.

By way of contrast, the area on the mainland with the largest monthly fall in its average price was Fife, down by -3.6%. All property types in Fife saw a fall in their average prices over the month, with the most significant fall in prices being semi-detached homes, down from £207k in October 2023 to £192k in November.

For interest, the highest-priced home to have been sold in Scotland in November was a £2.9 million five-bedroom detached home in Dirleton, North Berwick, East Lothian, overlooking The Renaissance Golf Club course and the Firth of Forth. Golf is a recurrent theme in the sale of high value homes.

Transactions analysis 

Figure 2 below shows the monthly transaction count for purchases during the period from January 2019 to November 2023, based on Registers of Scotland (RoS) figures for the Date of Entry (except for November 2023, which is based on RoS Application Dates).

The first year on the Chart, 2019 (light blue line), was relatively “normal” having an average 8,560 sales per month, some 2.1% higher than the total for 2018, but -0.3% lower than 2017. 

As can be seen, 2020 (the turquoise line) was more varied, the Covid pandemic having manifested itself in March 2020, with the first lockdown taking place in April 2020, when the market slumped to just 2,637 sales.

There was then a slow path to recovery during the remainder of 2020 with a peak in transactions in October 2020 of 13,045 sales, as the benefit of the LBTT tax holiday and the mantras of the “race for space” and “work from home” came to the fore. 

There was a second peak in transactions in March 2021 (the brown line), as purchasers scrambled to take advantage of the tax holiday, before its cessation on April 1st 2021.

In 2022 (the red line), house purchases returned to near normality, with the first nine months of 2022 seeing an average 8,600 sales per month. However, Liz Truss came into power on 6 September 2022, with her mini-budget, which resulted in the bank base rate being raised to 2.25%. The bank rate was further increased on 3rd November and 15th December 2022, ending the year at 3.5%.     

Figure 2.The number of sales per month recorded by RoS based on entry date from 2019 – 2023

This brings us to the current year of 2023 (the black line) – the relatively high bank rate of 3.5% had an adverse effect on property transactions, with only 5,893 sales for January 2023 – the lowest January total since 2013. Although the housing market in 2023 did enjoy the spring bounce in transactions that occurs traditionally in March, the bank base rate was increased a further five times in 2023, reaching 5.25% on 3rd August 2023 (the current rate). Over the first eleven months of 2023, sales are down by 12.3% compared to the equivalent period in 2022. 

Scotland transactions of £750k or higher

Table 3. The number of transactions by month in Scotland greater than or equal to £750k, January 2015 – November 2023

Sales of £750k+
Month		2015		2016		2017		2018		2019		2020		2021		2022		2023
1		33		27		19		35		44		49		65		88		75
2		42		20		15		52		26		33		62		69		53
3		231		57		25		34		35		30		115		80		76
4		2		27		29		24		36		11		46		70		68
5		14		20		31		32		54		16		63		90		69
6		26		47		43		41		60		36		119		112		102
7		15		36		55		44		61		41		121		136		106
8		41		54		62		60		61		40		102		126		105
9		46		44		56		70		59		67		127		135

…