Budget 2023-24: Scottish finances on a tightrope but choices are there to be made, says Fraser of Allander Institute

The outlook for Scotland’s budget in 2023-24 has undoubtedly been made more challenging due to factors wholly outwith the control of the Scottish Government, but there are decisions that Deputy First Minister John Swinney can make to ease the path ahead for Scotland, according to a report published yesterday by the Fraser of Allander Institute.

In its-pre Budget report, the University of Strathclyde-based Institute says that in the face of high inflation, the UK Government’s Autumn Statement provided some comfort with additional transfers that will more or less offset the impacts of inflation over the next two years.

The Scottish Government now needs to set out how it will use its significant devolved tax powers and whether to use them to generate more revenue for public services, including public sector workers.

The Resource Spending Review, published in May this year, provided a blueprint for spend over this parliament, but we have already seen deviations from planned spend in this financial year, and changing priorities may see further revisions when the draft Budget is set out on the 15 December.

The Fraser of Allander Institute’s annual pre-budget report, published today (12 December) examines the context to the budget and the key decisions facing the Scottish government in 2023-24.

Its findings include:

  • the economic situation has deteriorated markedly since the 2022-23 budget was presented, with high inflation set to eat away at living standards over the next two years.
  • the high inflation environment eroded the value of the Scottish Government’s budget in 2022-23 meaning that the present financial year’s budget is worth about £1bn less in real terms
  • Despite fears of cuts to the near-term budget, the announcements made by the UK Chancellor more or less offset the impacts of inflation on the Scottish budget in 2023-24 and 2024-25
  • the Scottish Government has significant devolved tax powers and therefore has decisions to make on Thursday about whether or not to use them to generate more revenue for public services.

Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Institute, said: “John Swinney is getting set to present his first budget in seven years, in what he has acknowledged is an unprecedentedly tricky time for the Scottish public finances.

“The challenges he has been dealing with for 2022-23 ease a bit for 2023-24: there was some additional money announced at the Autumn Statement which generated around a £1bn of consequentials, offsetting the inflationary pressures on the budget.

“But there are also flexibilities that the Deputy First Minister has for the next financial year that were not available to him for this year – the Scottish Government does have tax powers that could be used, if he wishes, to raise more revenue.”

Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, said: “In amongst all the headline-grabbing decisions, it will be important to take a step back to see how this Budget helps Scotland achieve its long term ambitions.

“We are expecting that the government will set out, clearly and transparently, the choices it has made and what the impact, both good and bad, will be for policy outcomes and the impacts on different groups.”

Access the full report here.

Get your Self Assessment wrapped up in time for Christmas

With Christmas nearly here, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) is encouraging Self Assessment customers to put their tax return at the top of their to-do list.

Last year more than 2,800 customers chose to file their tax return on Christmas Day. But those who get their 2021 to 2022 Self Assessment wrapped up before Christmas can tick it off and enjoy the festivities. 

Self Assessment customers need to complete their tax return and pay any tax owed by the 31 January 2023 deadline or risk having to pay a penalty. Those who file their return before 30 December may also have the option of paying any tax owed through their PAYE tax code.

Filing early means if customers owe money, they have plenty of time to explore which of the payment options available is best for them by visiting GOV.UK. Customers should include their bank account details so that if HMRC needs to repay them it can be done quickly and securely.

Myrtle Lloyd, HMRC’s Director General for Customer Services, said: “We are encouraging customers to plan their Self Assessment as they’d plan for Christmas – get organised, complete their to-do list with plenty of time to avoid that last minute rush. Just search ‘self assessment’ on GOV.UK to make a start.”

The easiest and quickest way to complete a tax return is online through a Personal Tax Account where customers can start their return and go back to it as many times as they need before submitting it. 

To make it even simpler, customers can now use the free and secure HMRC app to get their Unique Taxpayer Reference (UTR), make Self Assessment payments and obtain their National Insurance number and employment history . 

HMRC has a wide range of resources to help customers complete their tax return, including guidance, webinars and YouTube videos.

Customers need to be aware of the risk of scams as criminals use Self Assessment as an opportunity to commit fraud. Customers must never share their HMRC login details as criminals use them to steal or make a fraudulent claim. Customers should check HMRC’s scams advice on GOV.UK

Find out more about Self Assessment.

‘Focus on simple solutions’ RCEM says, as patients continue to face long waits amid crisis in Scotland

Responding to the latest weekly Emergency Department performance figures in Scotland Dr John-Paul Loughrey, Vice President of The Royal College of Emergency Medicine Scotland, said:

“We are deeply concerned about this winter; the crisis continues to escalate. Patients continue to face exceptionally dangerous long waits. We estimate that one in 72 patients waiting between eight to 12-hours in an Emergency Department can die as a result of these waiting times (30-day all-cause mortality).

“But these are data, the reality is Emergency Departments are overcrowded and in extremis. Patients with an array of different needs and care are packed in, facing high-risk and uncomfortable waits on trolleys in corridors. There is a lack of privacy, a lack of dignity, staff are stretched thinly meaning patients find it difficult to get the things they need – be it food or water or bathroom facilities, while they wait hours for a bed. Meanwhile, ambulances queue outside our Emergency Departments with more patients waiting to simply get in.

“Emergency Medicine staff and ambulance crews and paramedics are highly skilled, highly trained competent professionals, but the inability to move patients through the system means they are overstretched and overwhelmed, and unable to provide the high-quality care that they are trained to provide. Patients are worried and anxious, staff are increasingly distressed, unable to provide the real care that they want and should be providing.

“The solutions are simple; bolster the social care workforce to ensure the timely discharge of patients; tackle the recruitment and retention crisis among all health workers; increase capacity by opening an additional 1,000 beds in the acute system across Scotland. These will begin to address the root of the crisis.”

Addressing the concern around Strep A and the increase in attendances at Paediatric Emergency Departments in Scotland, Dr JP Loughrey said: “In recent weeks we have seen a marked increase in the number of children attending our Paediatric Emergency Departments, cases of Strep A remain high.

“We know parents are worried at this time. The College has issued advice and guidance together with the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health and the Royal College of General Practitioners.

“Emergency Departments remain open to those who need it. If children have symptoms, or parents are unsure, please seek care first through NHS 24, your GP or local pharmacist. If the symptoms are severe or your child’s condition worsens, do not hesitate to seek the necessary emergency care. We are here to help.”

Scotland’s latest weekly Emergency Department performance figures show:

  • There were 25,450 attendances at Emergency Departments
  • Four-hour performance stood at 63.4%, the fourth lowest on record
  • 9,314 patients waited more than four-hours in an Emergency Department
    • More than one third of patients were waiting for more than four hours in an Emergency Department
  • 3,048 patients waited more than eight-hours in an Emergency Department
    • Nearly one in eight patients were waiting for more than eight-hours in an Emergency Department
  • 1,276 patients waited more than 12-hours in an Emergency Department
    • One in twenty patients were waiting more than 12-hours in an Emergency Department

Sunak: “Enough Is Enough”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a statement to the House of Commons on illegal migration yesterday:

Mr Speaker, before I start, I know the whole House will join me in expressing our sympathies to the families of those who lost their children so tragically in Solihull.

With permission, I’d like to make a statement on illegal migration.

I hope the whole house would agree… there is a complex moral dimension to illegal migration.

The balancing of our duty to support people in dire need… with the responsibility to have genuine control of our borders… understandably provokes strong feelings. And so… it is my view… that the basis for any solution shouldn’t just be ‘what works’… but what is right.

The simplest moral framing for this issue… one I believe members on all sides of this House believe in… is fairness…

Mr Speaker… It is unfair that people come here illegally.

It is unfair on those with a genuine case for asylum…

…when our capacity to help is taken up by people coming through, and from, countries that are perfectly safe.

It is unfair on those who come here legally…

…when others come here by cheating the system.

And above all, it is unfair on the British people who play by the rules… …when others come here illegally and benefit from breaking those rules.

So people are right to be angry… Mr Speaker… because they see what I see… which is that this simply isn’t fair…

It is not cruel or unkind to want to break the stranglehold of the criminal gangs who trade in human misery and who exploit our system and laws…

Enough is enough.

As currently constructed the global asylum framework has become obsolete.

Today there are 100 million people displaced globally.

Hostile states are using migration as a weapon on the very borders of Europe.

And as the world becomes more unstable – and the effects of climate change make more places uninhabitable – the numbers displaced will only grow.

We have a proud history of providing sanctuary to those most in need.

Britain helped craft the 1951 Refugee Convention to protect those fleeing persecution.

The Rt Hon Member for Maidenhead passed the world’s first Modern Slavery Act in 2015.

And in the last year we have opened our hearts and homes to people from Hong Kong Afghanistan and Ukraine

Thousands of families will be setting extra places around the Christmas table this year.

No-one, no-one can doubt our generosity of spirit.

But today far too many of the beneficiaries of that generosity are not those directly fleeing war zones or at risk of persecution but people crossing the channel in small boats.

Many originate from fundamentally safe countries.

All travel through safe countries.

Their journeys are not ad hoc… but coordinated by ruthless, organised criminals.

And every single journey risks the lives of women, children – and we should be honest, mostly men, at sea.

Mr Speaker… This is not what previous generations intended when they drafted our humanitarian laws.

Nor is it the purpose of the numerous international treaties to which the UK is a signatory.

And unless we act now and decisively, this will only get worse.

Already in just seven weeks since I became Prime Minister, we have delivered the largest ever small boats deal with France…

…with significantly more boots on the ground patrolling their beaches.

For the first-time, UK and French officers are embedded in respective operations in Dover and Northern France.

We’ve re-established the Calais Group of Northern European nations – to disrupt traffickers all along the migration route.

And last week this group set a long-term ambition for a UK-EU wide agreement on migration.

Of course, this is not a panacea, and we need to go much further.

Over the last month the Home Secretary and I have studied every aspect of this issue in detail, and we can now set out five new steps today.

First, our policing of the channel has been too fragmented, with different people, doing different things, being pulled in different directions.

So we will establish a new, permanent, unified Small Boats Operational Command.

This will bring together our military, our civilian capabilities, and the National Crime Agency.

It will coordinate our intelligence, interception, processing, and enforcement.

And use all available technology, including drones for reconnaissance and surveillance, to pick people up and identify and then prosecute more gang-led boat pilots.

We’re adding more than 700 new staff and also doubling the funding given to the NCA for tackling organised immigration crime in Europe.

Second, these extra resources will free up immigration officers to go back to enforcement which, will in turn, allow us to increase raids on illegal working by 50%.

And it’s frankly absurd that today illegal migrants can get bank accounts which help them live and work here. So we will re-start data sharing to stop this.

Third, it’s unfair and appalling that we are spending £5.5 million every day on using hotels to house asylum seekers.

We must end this.

So, we will shortly bring forward a range of alternative sites such as disused holiday parks, former student halls, and surplus military sites.

We have already identified locations that could accommodate 10,000 people and are in active discussions to secure these and many more.

Our aim is to add thousands of places through this type of accommodation in the coming months – at half the cost of hotels.

At the same time, as we consulted on over the summer…

…the cheapest and fairest way to solve this problem is for all local authorities to take their fair share of asylum seekers in the private rental sector.

And we will work to achieve this as quickly as possible.

Fourth, Mr Speaker we need to process claims in days or weeks, not months or years.

So we will double the number of asylum caseworkers.

And we are radically re-engineering the end-to-end process…

…with shorter guidance, fewer interviews, less paperwork and introducing specialist case workers by nationality.

We will also remove the gold plating in our modern slavery system, including by reducing the cooling off period from 45 to 30 days – the legal minimum set out in the ECAT Treaty.

As a result of all these changes, we will triple the productivity of our caseworkers…

…and we expect to abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions by the end of next year.

Fifth, Fifth Mr Speaker and most significantly,

A third of all those arriving in small boats this year – almost 13,000 – are Albanian.

And yet Albania is a safe, prosperous European country.

It is deemed safe for returns by Germany, France, Italy, Sweden.

It is an EU accession country, a NATO ally and a member of the same treaty against trafficking as the United Kingdom.

The Prime Minister of Albania has himself said there is no reason why we cannot return Albanian asylum seekers immediately.

Last year Germany, France, Sweden all rejected almost 100% of Albanian asylum claims.

Yet our rejection rate is just 45%.

That must not continue. So today I can announce a new agreement with Albania – and a new approach.

First, we will embed Border Force officers in Tirana airport for the first time ever…

…helping to disrupt organised crime and stop people coming here illegally.

Second, we will issue new guidance for our case workers and make it crystal clear that Albania is a safe country.

Third, one of the reasons we struggle to remove people is because they unfairly exploit our modern slavery system.

So we will significantly raise the threshold someone has to meet to be considered a modern slave.

For the first time, we will actually require a case worker to have objective evidence of modern slavery rather than just a suspicion.

Fourth, we have sought and received formal assurances from Albania confirming they will protect genuine victims and people at risk of re-trafficking…

…allowing us to detain and return people to Albania with confidence and in line with ECAT.

As a result of these changes, the vast majority of claims from Albanians can simply be declared “clearly unfounded”.

And those individuals can be swiftly returned.

Lastly, we will change how we process Albanian illegal migrants, with a new dedicated unit expediting cases within weeks, staffed by 400 new specialists.

Over the coming months, thousands of Albanians will be returned home.

And we’ll keep going with weekly flights until all the Albanians in our backlog have been removed.

And in addition to all these new steps, Mr Speaker let the House be in no doubt that when legal proceedings conclude on our Migration and Economic Development Partnership…

…we will restart the first flights to Rwanda….

…so those here illegally who cannot be returned to their home country, can build a new life there.

But Mr Speaker, even with the huge progress we will make with the changes I have announced today… there still remains a fundamental question…

How do we solve this problem… once and for all?

It is not just our asylum system that needs fundamental reform.

Our laws need reform too.

We must be able to control our borders to ensure that the only people who come here come through safe and legal routes.

However well intended, our legal frameworks are being manipulated by people who exploit our courts to frustrate their removal for months or years on end.

Mr Speaker, I said enough is enough… and I mean it. And that means I am prepared to do what must be done.

So early next year we will introduce new legislation to make unambiguously clear that if you enter the UK illegally you should not be able to remain here.

Instead, you will be detained and swiftly returned either to your home country or to a safe country where your claim for asylum will be considered.

And you will no longer be able to frustrate removal attempts with late or spurious claims or appeals.

And once removed you should have no right to re-entry, settlement, or citizenship.

And furthermore, if our reforms on Albania are challenged in the courts…

…we will also put them on a statutory footing to ensure the UK’s treatment of Albanian arrivals is no different from that of Germany or France.

The only way to come to the UK for asylum will be through safe and legal routes.

And as we get a grip of illegal migration, we will create more of those routes.

We will work with the UNHCR to identify those most in need so the UK remains a safe haven for the most vulnerable.

And we will introduce an annual quota on numbers set by Parliament…

…in consultation with Local Authorities to determine our capacity…

…and amendable in the face of humanitarian emergencies.

Mr Speaker, that is the fair way to address this global challenge.

Tackling this problem will not be quick. It will not be easy.

But it is the right thing to do.

Because we cannot persist with a system that was designed for a different era.

We have to stop the boats.

And this government will do what must be done.

Mr Speaker we – will be tough but fair.

And where we lead, others will follow.

And I commend this Statement to the House.

Driving in icy conditions

ADVICE FROM POLICE SCOTLAND

Are you prepared for driving as the weather gets colder? As the temperature falls, the roads will become icy so please think ahead before you travel anywhere:

🚗 Only drive if the journey is absolutely necessary and if so, make sure your car is completely defrosted. This includes windows and screen wash!

🕐Leave plenty of time for the journey. The traffic will be slower with people taking precautions whilst driving. No journey is worth the risk of driving fast in the ice and snow.

😎 The glare from the low-lying sun can be blinding during winter, so please take extra due care and attention and have some sunglasses available to help with the glare.

👍 Be considerate of all road users – remember everyone is just trying to get from A-B safely.

You can find more advice on driving in adverse weather conditions here 👇

https://www.gov.uk/…/driving-in-adverse-weather…

Citizens’ Panel views on Public Participation to be heard by MSPs

TODAY (Wednesday 14th December), MSPs on the Citizens Participation and Public Petitions Committee (CPPPC) will hear recommendations on how the Scottish Parliament can better engage with the people of Scotland.

Earlier this year, the CPPPC launched an inquiry into public participation, looking at how people’s voices are heard in the work of the Parliament. A Citizens’ Panel, comprised of 19 people broadly reflecting the demographic make-up of Scotland, met in Holyrood throughout October and November to deliberate how the Scottish Parliament can best work with people and communities to ensure their needs are reflected in its work.

Throughout the sittings, the Citizen’s Panel heard from MSPs, Scottish Parliament officials, third-sector organisations and leading academics about democracy and public participation to help facilitate discussion and inform their findings.

The Citizens’ Panel made 17 recommendations on improving how Holyrood’s work involves, reflects, and meets the needs of the full range of communities it represents, focusing on improving engagement for those currently under-represented.

Recommendations from the panel include improving community engagement, how the Parliament uses deliberative democracy, public involvement in Parliamentary business and the way Parliament communicates and educates the public on its work, specifically:

  • Removing barriers to participation so that everyone has an equal opportunity to be involved in the work of the Parliament
  • Legislating to embed deliberative democracy within the Parliamentary process
  • Scheduling specific time in the debating Chamber for individual public questions to be asked
  • Giving the Presiding Officer the power to compel MSPs to give a direct answer to all questions asked.

Five of the panellists, Gillian Ruane, Paul MacDonald, John Sultman, Maria Schwarz and Ronnie Paterson will present their findings to the CPPPC this week.

Following the evidence session, the Committee’s interim report will be published, and the Citizens’ Panel recommendations will go out to public consultation on 16th December for 8 weeks on the Scottish Parliament’s Your Priorities platform.

Commenting ahead of the Committee meeting, Convener Jackson Carlaw MSP said: “The work of the Citizens’ Panel on public participation has been invaluable to our inquiry, bringing fresh perspectives and bold ideas to the table around how Parliament can better engage with individuals, groups and communities from every part of Scotland.

“Ensuring the Scottish Parliament is accessible to a diverse range of people, particularly when developing new laws or policies that affect them, is essential and the recommendations made by the Citizens’ Panel have certainly given the Committee food for thought.

“The Committee will look forward to hearing from panel members this week and learning more about their experiences of the deliberative democracy process and how MSPs and the Parliament can best deliver on their recommendations.”  

Concerns raised as record high of Scottish pupils identified with additional support needs while statutory support falls

The Scottish Children’s Services Coalition (SCSC), an alliance of leading providers of specialist care and education to vulnerable children and young people, has raised concerns over an increase in the number of pupils identified with additional support needs (ASN), against a backdrop of a lack of support and proposed budget cuts.

It has also voiced similar concerns over a declining number of those with complex needs receiving a co-ordinated support plan (CSP), the only education plans that are legal documents. This is despite a Scottish Government promise that there would be no decline in the numbers of those receiving them.

The figures were released yesterday (13th December) in the Scottish Government’s annual census of pupils and teachers in publicly funded schools.

These figures show that the number of pupils with ASN, such as autism, dyslexia and mental health problems in 2022 has reached a record high of 241,639. Of this total 57.2% are boys. This represents 34.2% of the pupil population, rising from 118,011 in 2012, and a more than doubling (104.8%) in numbers from that year.

An increase in demand is however set against a backdrop of proposed budget cuts and a lack of specialist ASN teachers, support staff and the resources needed to support this. This is also exacerbated by the ongoing impacts of Covid-19 lockdowns and the cost-of-living crisis, with those with ASN drawn proportionately from the poorest backgrounds, as well as an increase in those experiencing mental health problems.

The SCSC has also raised concerns over a decline in the number of those receiving a CSP. These are statutory education plans prepared by local authorities to identify and ensure the provision of services for children and young people with complex or multiple ASN.

The only education plans that are legal documents, CSPs require services such as education, health and social work to work together to give a child or young person the support they need. This provides some guarantees of entitlement to additional resources and legal redress, placing statutory duties on local authorities to review and ensure the provisions contained within it are being met.

Despite a Scottish Government promise that there would be no reduction in the proportion of pupils receiving them since their introduction in 2004, there has been a significant fall in the number of pupils with a CSP. Declining from 3,448 in 2012 3 to 1,401 in 2022, this amounts to a drop of 59.4%. This is a reduction from 2.9% to 0.6% of those with ASN.

A spokesperson for the SCSC commented: “While more children and young people are being identified as having ASN, this is against the increasingly challenging backdrop of a lack of specialist teachers, support staff and the resources needed to support them. This clearly has an impact not only on the individuals concerned but also on their peers and teachers.

“Such support is critical, especially post the Covid-19 pandemic and the damaging impact this has had on many of our children and young people, exacerbated by the cost-of-living crisis, which is hitting the poorest hardest.

“We are also concerned that despite an increase in the numbers of those with ASN we are experiencing a decline in the use of CSPs, which are designed to support those with the most complex needs.

“The Scottish Government and local authorities need to work in collaboration with the private and third sectors to provide the necessary resourcing and support to address the needs of children and young people with ASN. They must also work together to ensure that those who are entitled to a CSP receive one.

“With those with ASN drawn disproportionately from poorer neighbourhoods, if we are to genuinely close the educational attainment gap they must get the care and support they need when they need it.”

Know how to be prepared for common illnesses this festive season

People across the Lothians are being encouraged to check they have basic home remedies in ahead of the Festive and New Year holidays to avoid having to find a pharmacy on a bank holiday.

Dr John McAnaw, a pharmacist and NHS 24’s Associate Clinical Director says most seasonal illnesses can be looked after at home with self-care and things like paracetamol: ‘Christmas is a fun but hectic time for most people. It’s easy to get swept up in the festive atmosphere and forget that health should be on your priority list.

‘Making sure you have home remedies for common ailments will save you time and help you focus on the celebrations. NHS 24’s 111 service is there to help if you need urgent health care support, but we know that roughly 30% of people who call 111 need self-help advice on common illnesses and conditions that can normally be managed at home.

‘Avoiding the need to call 111 means the service can help those who need urgent help more quickly, and also save you the bother of trying to find a local pharmacy.

Dr McAnaw continues: ‘I would recommend you have pain relief such as paracetamol or ibuprofen at home. For little ones get age-appropriate pain remedies which you can also get in liquid form. In the case of fevers, a thermometer is also a good idea as it means you can monitor temperatures accurately.

‘To cover accidents, I’d recommend reviewing your first-aid kit and make sure it is stocked with things like plasters, antiseptic, and bandages. For common conditions such as rashes, tummy upsets and earaches, NHS inform has lots of information on how to treat these at home and when to seek medical help.

Dr McAnaw’s advice is part of an NHSScotland national health campaign ‘Healthy Know How.’ The campaign provides advice on how to stay well and enjoy the festivities, avoiding the need to get medical help over the holidays. Tips include:

  • Know how to stay on top of prescriptions. Order only what is needed and in plenty of time before the festive holidays.
  • Know how to be prepared for common illnesses. Ensure you have some remedies in the house.
  • Know how to check symptoms if you do become unwell. NHS inform’s symptom checkers can give you all the health advice you need online.
  • Know how to get the right care, in the right place. Further medical advice can be found during the week by contacting your GP, pharmacist, dentist or optometrist. For out of hours or during holiday closures call NHS 24 on 111.

More details on the Healthy Know How campaign can be found here – www.nhsinform.scot/winter