UK Government – Page 76 – The NEN

Scottish revenue increases by £15 billion

Strong growth in income tax and energy sector

Scotland’s notional deficit has continued to fall at a faster pace than the UK’s, driven by record energy sector revenues and strong growth in the tax take, figures for the 2022-23 financial year show.

Total revenue for Scotland increased by 20.7% (£15 billion) compared with 11.3% for the UK as a whole. This includes a £1.9 billion increase in revenue from Scottish income tax and £6.9 billion increase in North Sea revenue. These increases have partially been offset by a rise in spending on cost of living measures and interest payments on UK Government debt.

To mark publication of the 30th Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) statistics, the Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy, Neil Gray, visited the University of Glasgow’s Mazumdar-Shaw Advanced Research Centre to learn about the significant economic potential of quantum technology to Scotland’s economy. Recent research has suggested the sector could be worth £1 billion to Scotland by 2030.

Mr Gray said: “I am pleased that Scotland’s finances are improving at a faster rate than the UK as a whole, with revenue driven by Scotland’s progressive approach to income tax and our vibrant energy sector.

“While the record revenues from the North Sea show the extent that the UK continues to benefit from Scotland’s natural wealth, these statistics do not reflect the full benefits of the green economy, with hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue not yet captured.

“It is important to remember that GERS reflects the current constitutional position, with 41% of public expenditure and 64% of tax revenue the responsibility of the UK Government. Indeed, a full £1 billion of our deficit is the direct result of the UK Government’s mismanagement of the public finances.

“An independent Scotland would have the powers to make different choices, with different budgetary results, to best serve Scotland’s interests.

“While we are bound to the UK’s economic model and do not hold all the financial levers needed, we will continue to use all the powers we do have to grow a green wellbeing economy, while making the case that we need independence to enable Scotland to match the economic success of our European neighbours.

“I’m grateful to the University of Glasgow for showing me their world-leading quantum technology research, which could be worth £1 billion to our economy within seven years, highlighting just how bright Scotland’s future could be outside of the UK.”

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2022-23

Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland figures ‘show Scotland benefits from being part of a strong United Kingdom with a sharing and pooling of resources’

The Scottish Government has published their annual Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland report, which shows the difference between total revenue and total public sector spending in Scotland.

The figures for 2022-2023 showed that people in Scotland are continuing to benefit from levels of public spending substantially above the United Kingdom average.

And even in a year of exceptional North Sea Revenues, Scotland’s deficit is still more than £19 billion, demonstrating how the country continues to benefit from being part of a strong United Kingdom, with the vital pooling and sharing of resources that the Union brings.

Commenting on the figures, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “The Scottish Government’s own figures show yet again how people in Scotland benefit hugely from being part of a strong United Kingdom.

“Scotland’s deficit is more than £19billion – even in a year of exceptional North Sea Revenues. Without oil and gas, that figure soars to more than £28billion.

“People in Scotland benefit to the tune of £1,521 per person thanks to higher levels of public spending.

“As we face cost of living pressures and unprecedented global challenges it is clear Scotland is better off as part of a strong United Kingdom.”

GERS 2023 – Uptick in oil revenues narrows the gap between Scottish and UK Deficit

Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE, JOAO SOUSA and CIARA CRUMMEY unpick the latest statistics:

This morning sees the publication of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2022-23.

These statistics set out three main things:

The revenues raised from Scotland, from both devolved and reserved taxation;
Public expenditure for and on behalf of Scotland, again for both devolved and reserved expenditure;
The difference between these two figures, which is called in the publication the “net fiscal balance” – but as you may well hear colloquially referred to as the “deficit”.

These statistics form the backdrop to a key battleground in the constitutional debate, particularly when it is focussed on the fiscal sustainability of an independent Scotland and what different choices Scotland could make in terms of taxation and spending.

So what do the latest statistics show?

The latest figures show that the net fiscal balance for 2022-23 was -£19.1 bn, which represents -9.0% of GDP. This is a fall from the 2021-22 figure of -12.8% of GDP and is down significantly from 2020-21 which was inflated hugely by COVID-related spending.

The comparable UK figure for 2022-23 is -5.2% of GDP. The UK figure is unchanged from 2021-22. The reason for the differential trend for Scotland and the UK as a whole has been driven by North Sea revenue, which contributed £9.4 billion to Scottish revenue in 2022-23.

Chart 1: Scottish and UK net fiscal balance, 1998-99 to 2022-23

Source: Scottish Government

In this year of record North Sea revenue (at least in cash terms), the difference between the Scottish and UK deficit is driven by the expenditure side of the net fiscal balance equation.

Chart 2: Spending and revenue per head, Scotland-UK, 1998-99 to 2022-23

Source: Scottish Government

On revenues, including the North Sea, Scotland raised £696 more per head than the UK, whilst on expenditure, Scotland spent £2,217 more per head than the UK average.

So what do these statistics really tell us?

These statistics reflect the situation of Scotland as part of the current constitutional situation. That is, Scotland as a devolved government as part of the UK. The majority of spending that is carried out to deliver services for the people of Scotland are provided by devolved government (either Scottish Government or Local Government).

To a certain extent therefore, the higher per head spending levels are driven by the way that the funding for devolved services is calculated through the Barnett formula. Add on top of that the higher than population share of reserved social security expenditure, and we have identified the two main reasons for higher public expenditure in Scotland.

Let’s go over some of the main points that may come up today when folks are analysing these statistics.

Scotland isn’t unusual in the UK in running a negative net fiscal balance

This is absolutely right. ONS produce figures for all regions and nations of the UK, and these have shown consistently (in normal years, so excluding COVID times) that outside of London and surrounding areas, most parts of the UK are estimated to raise less revenue than is spent on their behalf.

In 2021, we discussed the differences between parts of the UK in an episode of BBC Radio 4’s More or Less programme.

The Scottish Government doesn’t have a deficit as it has to run a balanced budget

This statement isn’t quite true (the SG now has limited capital borrowing powers and resource borrowing powers to cover forecast error). The Scottish Government’s Budget is funded through the Barnett determined Block Grant, with some adjustments to reflect the devolution of taxes and social security responsibilities (most significantly, income tax).

The SG do not have the flexibility to borrow for discretionary resource spending.

However, to focus on this around the publication of GERS somewhat misses the point of the publication. It looks at money spent on services for the benefit of Scotland, whoever spends it, and compares that to taxes raised, whoever collects them. As touched on above, the Barnett-determined block grant funds services at a higher level per head in Scotland than in England in aggregate.

What does this tell us about independence?

Setting aside the noise that will no doubt accompany GERS today, there are essentially two key issues, that need to be considered together.

GERS takes the current constitutional settlement as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then it is possible that these a set of accounts based upon the world today could look different, over the long term, in an independent Scotland.

That said, GERS does provide an accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2023. In doing so it sets the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices, opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements. And here the challenge is stark, with a likely deficit far in excess of the UK as a whole, other comparable countries or that which is deemed to be sustainable in the long-term. It is not enough to say ‘everything will be fine’ or ‘look at this country, they can run a sensible fiscal balance so why can’t Scotland?’. Concrete proposals and ideas are needed.

And please guys… dodge the myths!

We have produced a detailed guide to GERS which goes through the background of the publication and all of the main issues around its production, including some of the odd theories that emerge around it. A few years ago, we also produced a podcast which you can enjoy at your leisure.

In summary though, to go through the main claims usually made about GERS:

GERS is an accredited National Statistics produced by statisticians in the Scottish Government (so is not produced by the UK Government) and is a serious attempt to understand the key fiscal facts under the current constitutional arrangement
Some people look to discredit the veracity of GERS because it relies – in part – on estimation. Estimation is a part of all economic statistics and is not a reason to dismiss the figures as “made up”.
Will the numbers change if you make different reasonable assumptions about the bits of GERS that are estimated? In short, not to any great extent.
If you have any more questions about how revenues and spending are compiled in GERS, the SG publish a very helpful FAQs page, including dealing with issues around company headquarters and the whisky industry.

Look out for more analysis

It’ll be interesting to see the coverage of these statistics today and the talking points that are generated given where we are in the constitutional debate.

If you have any questions about GERS for us, then why not get in touch? Submit them to fraser@strath.ac.uk and we’ll try to cover them in our weekly update later this week!

RAF Typhoon jets intercept Russian bombers flying north of Scotland

Royal Air Force (RAF) pilots launched Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) Typhoon fighters to intercept two Russian long-range maritime patrol bombers yesterday as they transited north of the Shetland Islands within NATO’s northern air policing area.

The Typhoon jets launched from RAF Lossiemouth, one of the RAF’s two QRA stations, where RAF fighters are constantly available to respond to threats at a moment’s notice in order to defend UK airspace.

The Russian Tu-142 Bear-F and Tu-142 Bear-J maritime patrol aircraft, used for reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare, were monitored by RAF Typhoons in international airspace as they passed north of the UK.

Minister for the Armed Forces, James Heappey, said: “RAF crews at Lossiemouth maintain a constant watch over UK airspace and are always ready to take action at a moment’s notice to keep our country safe.

“Pilots launched in their Typhoon jets to intercept two Russian long-range bombers this morning, monitoring them as they passed north of the Shetland Islands, ready to counter any potential threat to UK territory.”

A Voyager tanker was also scrambled and remained airborne for the duration of the mission to offer air-to-air refueling, ensuring the Typhoons could remain in the air for the extended period necessary to complete their mission.

The lead RAF Typhoon pilot said: “It’s really satisfying to know we’ve been able to make a successful intercept, maintaining the integrity of UK and NATO airspace.

“When the alarm for a scramble happened in the early hours of the morning, the adrenaline kicked in. Working in tandem with ground control operators, and with air-to-air refueling from an RAF Voyager, we were able to stay on task until the mission was complete, and the target aircraft departed the UK’s area of interest.”

RAF Typhoons are scrambled during these incidents to secure and safeguard the skies of the UK. RAF pilots from Lossiemouth recently completed a four-month deployment to lead NATO’s air policing mission in Estonia, where more than 50 air intercepts of this kind were carried out.

Russian military aircraft entering the UK Flight Information Region, the UK’s controlled zone of international airspace, can pose a hazard to other aircraft. These Russian aircraft often do not talk to air traffic control or ‘squawk’, broadcasting a code ensuring they are visible to other air users and air traffic controllers on the ground.

The Typhoons and Voyager subsequently returned to their base and the aircraft have been refueled to remain ready to respond to any future potential threats.

New inserts in cigarette packs to help smokers quit?

UK Government seeks views on adding pack inserts to tobacco products to encourage smokers to quit

Pack inserts are used internationally including in Canada and Israel, and proven to encourage people to give up smoking
Initial report on the Major Conditions Strategy to be published today

The UK government will seek views on adding pack inserts into tobacco products to encourage more smokers to quit as it launches a new consultation today.

Placed inside the packaging of cigarettes and hand rolling tobacco, they would contain positive messages to encourage people to quit and signpost them to advice and support.

The messages set out the health benefits of quitting – for example, improvements to breathing within a matter of days and a 50% reduction in the risk of heart attack within a year – as well as showing smokers how much money they stand to save by giving up, with the average person likely to save over £2,000 per year if they quit.

Smoking remains the single leading preventable cause of illness and mortality in the UK. It results in nearly 4% of all hospital admissions each year – equivalent to almost 450,000 admissions. Tobacco-related harms are also estimated to cost taxpayers an estimated £21 billion every year, including over £2 billion in costs to the NHS.

Although smoking rates in the UK are at an all-time low, by taking further action, the government will seek to cut waiting lists and reduce the burden on the NHS. Introducing pack inserts into all tobacco products in the UK could lead to an additional 30,000 smokers giving up their habit – delivering health benefits worth £1.6 billion.

Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay said: “Smoking places a huge burden on the NHS, economy and individuals. It directly causes a whole host of health problems – including cancers and cardiovascular disease – and costs the economy billions every year in lost productivity.

By taking action to reduce smoking rates and pursuing our ambition to be smokefree by 2030, we will reduce the pressure on the NHS and help people to live healthier lives.”

The consultation – which opens today – will seek views on the introduction and design of pack inserts.

Pack inserts are already used in other countries – including Canada and Israel, with Australia also announcing its intention to introduce them – and there is evidence that they can be an effective means of encouraging smokers to quit.

An evaluation of the policy’s impact in Canada found that almost 1 in 3 smokers had read the inserts at least once in the past month, and that those who were exposed to the inserts multiple times were significantly more likely to try to give up smoking.

The consultation builds on a recent package of measures designed to drive the government’s ambition to be smokefree by 2030 – which means reducing smoking rates to 5% or less.

These measures include:

Funding a new national ‘swap to stop’ scheme – the first of its kind in the world – to offer a million smokers across England a free vaping starter kit, alongside expert support
Launching a financial incentive scheme – in the form of vouchers alongside behavioural support – to support pregnant women to stop smoking, with an aim to reach all pregnant smokers by the end of next year
A new strategy to combat illicit tobacco, which will outline efforts to catch and punish those involved in the illegal market

Deborah Arnott, chief executive of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), said: “Smoking is very addictive, and it takes smokers on average thirty attempts before they succeed in stopping, so encouraging them to keep on trying is vital.

“Pack inserts do this by backing up the grim messages about death and disease on the outside with the best advice about how to quit on the inside.

“They will help deliver not just the Smokefree 2030 ambition, but also the Major Conditions Strategy, as smoking is responsible for all six major conditions from cancer to cardiovascular and respiratory disease, as well as dementia, mental ill health and musculoskeletal disorders.”

The consultation launch comes as the government publishes an initial report on its Major Conditions Strategy – which covers the six groups of conditions accounting for 60% of all ill-health and early death in England.

One in four people in England live with two or more major long-term conditions, and the initial report sets out the direction for the strategy to tackle these groups of conditions – cancers, cardiovascular diseases (including stroke and diabetes), musculoskeletal disorders, mental ill health, dementia and chronic respiratory conditions.

This includes by addressing key risk factors and lifestyle drivers of ill-health and disease, including smoking, which is a direct contributor to all six groups of conditions covered by the strategy. For example, it is the biggest cause of cancer, with one in every five cancer deaths in England connected to smoking.

A world leader in reducing smoking rates, UK levels are currently at their lowest on record at 13.3%. But across the UK, 1 in 7 adults still smoke – around 6.6 million people – and the impacts on the NHS and economy are significant.

Tobacco also costs the economy in England an estimated £14 billion in lost productivity every year, due to lost earnings, unemployment and early deaths. The average smoker stands to save approximately £2,000 per year from giving up their habit.

New building requirements for separate male and female toilets

UK Government confirms measures to reverse the rise of gender-neutral toilets as part of wider efforts to protect single sex spaces in England

Government accelerates plans for separate male and female toilets in new non-domestic private and public buildings;
Builds upon action to protect and enhance single sex spaces;
Changes will also encourage the provision of self-contained, private toilets to ensure there are appropriate facilities for all.

The UK Government has announced today it is acting to bring forward changes to regulations that will mean all new non-domestic public and private buildings will be required to provide separate single-sex toilets for women and men and/or a self-contained, private toilet as a minimum.

The change comes amid dignity and privacy concerns from women and elderly people who feel they are being unfairly disadvantaged as publicly accessible toilets are increasingly being converted into gender neutral facilities.

Concerns over the rise of neutral gender facilities has meant that public have been forced to share cubicle and hand-washing facilities, leading to increasing waiting in shared queues, decreased choice and a limitation on privacy and dignity for all.

New regulations and guidance will mean women, who may need to use facilities more often because of pregnancy or sanitary needs, will now be guaranteed appropriate facilities either through a separate single-sex space or through a self-contained, private toilet.

The action taken today builds upon the Government’s commitment and wider approach to the protection of single sex spaces.

In addition to single sex toilets becoming the default and minimum for new non-residential buildings and places undertaking major refurbishment, the guidelines will encourage the consideration of self-contained toilets, which are a fully enclosed toilet room with a wash hand basin for individual use.

This new approach will help to maximise privacy and dignity for of all, which will be explicit in the guidance.

A new short technical consultation to shape the changes will open tomorrow.

Kemi Badenoch, Minister for Women and Equalities, said: “It is important that everybody has privacy and dignity when using public facilities. Yet the move towards ‘gender neutral’ toilets has removed this fundamental right for women and girls.

“These proposals will ensure every new building in England is required to provide separate male and female or unisex facilities, and publish guidance to explain the difference, protecting the dignity, privacy and safety of all.”

Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Faith & Communities, Baroness Scott, said: “It is extremely important women can feel comfortable when using public facilities, so we are taking action to restore dignity and privacy at the centre of all future provision.

“These proposals will mean separate toilets for men and women, as well as self-contained toilets for those that need them, become a requirement for every new building across England.”

A previous call for evidence on increasing the accessibility of toilets for men and women gathered over 17,000 responses and represented a full range of views – generally calling for greater consideration in the range of toilets to preserve dignity, access, equality, and privacy for all.

The changes will be made through building regulations and guidance. The aim of the new requirements will ensure that:

Separate single-sex toilets facilities are provided for men and women; and/or
Self-contained, private toilets are provided where space allows to ensure privacy and safety;
Mixed sex shared facilities are not an option, except when lack of space allows only a single toilet

Changing the rules for single sex and/or universal toilets to be required would have positive equality outcomes for those who may not currently feel safe while using toilet facilities.

UK Health Secretary offers waiting list support to Wales and Scotland

The UK Health and Social Care Secretary has invited the devolved administration for talks to discuss lessons learnt and tackle waiting lists across the UK

The UK Government Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay has written to the devolved administrations inviting them for talks about how all parts of the UK can work together to tackle long-term waiting lists in all parts of the UK.

NHS services across the UK are a devolved matter, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made cutting waiting lists a priority across the UK. Although approaches taken across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland share many common features, significant variations in outcomes exist.

In Wales, more than 73,000 people are waiting over 77 weeks for treatment, and at least 21,600 people are waiting over 78 weeks for an outpatient, day case or inpatient appointment in Scotland. In England, waiting times for patients over 78 weeks have been virtually eliminated.

The Secretary of State is inviting health ministers from the devolved administrations to discuss what lessons can be learnt from the different approaches taken.

In England for example, NHS patients are offered a choice of provider at GP referral – NHS or independent sector – provided that it meets NHS costs and standards. And from October we will proactively notify patients waiting over 40 weeks for treatment of their right to choose to be treated elsewhere.

In his letter, the Secretary of State writes that he would be open to requests from the devolved administrations to allow patients in Wales and Scotland who are waiting for lengthy periods to choose to be treated at providers in England, NHS or independent sector – building on the current arrangements for cross-border healthcare.

The Secretary of State has also asked UK health ministers to discuss how health data can be made more comparable across the UK. Northern Ireland official counterparts have also been invited to the ministerial meeting.

Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay said: “I hugely value being able to share knowledge and experiences on the joint challenges facing our healthcare systems. I want to support collaboration between our nations to share best practices, improve transparency and provide better accountability for patients.

“This will help to ensure we are joined up when it comes to cutting waiting lists – one of the government’s top five priorities – and will allow us to better work together to improve performance and get patients seen more quickly.”

The letter reads:

Dear Michael and Eluned,

Thank you for a constructive meeting last month.

As you know, the NHS is at the forefront of people’s minds, and the Prime Minister has made cutting waiting lists a priority to ensure people across the UK get the care they need more quickly. We must continue to take steps to support the NHS and reduce waiting times to ensure no part of the UK is left behind. I am therefore concerned by the variation in performance across NHS services.

As we look to address this issue, it is important that the UK Government and Devolved Administrations work together to ensure that no matter where you are in the country, citizens can access vital services quickly.

In England, we are delivering on the actions set out in the NHS’s Elective Recovery Implementation Plan published last February. Our target to virtually eliminate waits of longer than two years by July 2022 was achieved on time and waits for treatment of more than 78 weeks have been virtually eliminated. Although data is not collected on the same basis across the UK, recent figures show more than 73,000 people are waiting over 77 weeks for treatment in Wales, and at least 21,600 people are waiting over 78 weeks for an outpatient, daycase or inpatient appointment in Scotland.

Whilst there are common features across the approaches of England, Wales and Scotland, one area of difference relates to patient choice. In England, patients have the legal right to choose the provider for their first outpatient appointment (at the point of GP referral) for many healthcare services. Patients may choose to be treated free of charge at any provider – NHS or independent sector – provided they meet NHS standards and costs and hold a contract for the provision of services to the NHS. A Patients Association study has found that this can reduce a patient’s waiting time by up to 3 months.

From October, we will proactively notify patients in England who have been waiting over 40 weeks of their right to request to be treated at a different provider if clinically appropriate, again in the NHS or in the independent sector, provided they meet NHS standards and costs, and they hold a contract for the provision of services to the NHS.

The Secretaries of State for Scotland and Wales share my desire to see patients across the UK have the same rights when it comes to accessing treatment. I would therefore be happy to facilitate a Ministerial working group session (with NI official counterparts) to share how we are implementing this choice approach in England, and to share lessons on work across the UK to tackle the elective waiting list. I would also be open to considering any request from you for patients waiting for lengthy periods for treatment in Scotland and Wales to be able to choose from alternate providers in England – NHS or independent sector – in line with the approach we are taking here, and building on the existing arrangements for cross-border healthcare.

I also believe we need to work together to ensure that health data is more comparable across the UK. It is important that all our citizens can understand the performance of the health services they are receiving and that we can learn from what has been tried and tested in one part of the UK to improve services across the country. I welcome the work our respective teams have been doing to improve data comparability, for example through the Office for National Statistics’ work to improve key UK-wide health performance metrics.

I am very keen to see this work progress and ask for your continued support in prioritising this moving forward.

In the absence of Ministers in Northern Ireland, I am copying this letter to the Department of Health in Northern Ireland and the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

Yours sincerely,

RT HON STEVE BARCLAY MP

New tech partnership with social media to ‘stop the boats’

Partnership with social media companies to clamp down on people smugglers’ operations online
Illegal crossings remain down on last year and returns are at their highest level since 2019
Extra funding and resources for law enforcement to tackle harmful content

A voluntary partnership between social media companies and government will accelerate action to tackle people smuggling content online, such as criminals sharing information about illegal Channel crossings, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced today [Sunday 6th August].

It comes as new figures show the government continues to make progress on the Prime Minister’s plan to stop the boats: crossings remain down on last year, the legacy asylum backlog has been reduced by a third since December 2022, and enforced returns of people with no right to be in the UK are at their highest level since 2019.

While figures from the NCA show that over 90% of online content linked to people smuggling is taken down when social media companies are notified, the partnership between tech firms and government will drive forward efforts to clamp down on the tactics being used by criminal gangs who use the internet to lure people into paying for crossings.

This content can include discount offers for groups of people, free spaces for children, offers of false documents and false claims of safe passage – targeting vulnerable people for profit and putting people’s lives at risk through dangerous and illegal journeys.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “To stop the boats, we have to tackle the business model of vile people smugglers at source.

“That means clamping down on their attempts to lure people into making these illegal crossings and profit from putting lives at risk.

“This new commitment from tech firms will see us redouble our efforts to fight back against these criminals, working together to shut down their vile trade.”

Home Secretary Suella Braverman said: “Heartless people smugglers are using social media to promote their despicable services and charge people thousands of pounds to make the illegal journey into the UK in unsafe boats.

“They must not succeed.

“This strengthened collaboration between the National Crime Agency, government and social media companies will ensure content promoting dangerous and illegal Channel crossings doesn’t see the light of day.”

The partnership will build on the close working already in place between government and social media companies, and includes a range of commitments to explore increased collaboration.

Under this initiative, social media companies will look to increase cooperation with the National Crime Agency to find and remove criminal content and step up the sharing of best practice both across the industry and with law enforcement.

The voluntary partnership also includes a commitment to explore ways to step up efforts to redirect people away from this content when they come across it online. This approach is already widely being used successfully by platforms, for example around harmful content promoting extremism or eating disorders, where people are presented with alternative messages to displace, rebut or undermine the damaging content they searched for – diverting them away from harmful messaging and misinformation.

Alongside the partnership, the government will also set up a new centre led by the National Crime Agency and Home Office to increase the capacity and capability of law enforcement to identify this content on social media platforms.

Known as the ‘Online Capability Centre’, backed by £11m funding, its work will focus on undermining and disrupting the business model of organised crime groups responsible for illegal crossings and using the internet to facilitate these journeys by intensifying efforts to combat their online activity.

The centre will be staffed by highly trained technical specialists alongside law enforcement officers and will work by building a clearer picture of the scale of illegal immigration material online.

They will work with internet companies to identify more of this material, notifying platforms so they can take the appropriate action. The centre will also focus on developing and building a bank of intelligence around the criminal networks who are promoting people smuggling services online, which will help improve law enforcement’s ability to identify content and in turn help drive investigations.

To harness the potential of new technology such as AI to clamp down on criminals’ content, government will also hold a ‘hackathon’ event with industry experts in order to develop innovative new tools which will better detect people smugglers’ publicly available content online, to help social media companies take it down more quickly.

Government will also intensify the existing work taking place with social media companies ahead of the Online Safety Bill coming into effect.

Once in force, under the Bill social media companies will be required to make sure their systems and processes are designed to prevent people coming into contact with illegal content created by people smugglers, minimise how long this content is available online and remove it as soon as possible once they become aware of it.

Alongside this, the Bill also requires major platforms to publish annual transparency reports setting out what they’re doing to tackle online harms. This could include information around how content around illegal migration is spread across platforms, how frequently it is uploaded, and what systems and processes companies have in place to deal with this kind of content.

The partnership confirmed today also builds on the work of the “Social Media Action Plan”, a voluntary agreement between the Home Office, National Crime Agency and five major social media platforms in 2021 to increase understanding of how organised criminals used their platforms to promote illegal services.

To date, this cooperation has seen more than 4,700 posts, pages or accounts have been removed or suspended as a result, increasing disruption of organised crime groups’ activity, and today’s partnership will drive further progress.

Stopping the boats is one of the Prime Minister’s top five priorities and the government is fully focused on delivering his whole system plan to tackling illegal migration. This includes:

stepping up law enforcement activity, with 50% more illegal working visits carried out in the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year
tackling the legacy asylum backlog, which has reduced by nearly a third since the end of December
passing the Illegal Migration Act which will ensure that people who come to the UK illegally will be detained and swiftly removed.

Working with international partners to tackle this global challenge is another key strand of efforts to stop the boats, and since taking office the PM has secured new agreements with allies, including strengthened partnerships with France and Albania which will see 40% more patrols on French beaches, and have resulted in a 90% drop in Albanian small boat arrivals in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year.

G7+ oil price cap continues to pile pressure on Putin six months on

The oil price cap is significantly impacting Russia’s ability to use oil to finance its illegal war.
45% plunge in Russian Finance Ministry energy revenues.
UK continues to monitor effectiveness of the cap alongside its Coalition partners amid expected market price fluctuations.

UK-backed price cap on Russian oil and oil products is successfully undermining Putin’s ability to fund his illegal war in Ukraine, according to official data collated six months on from implementation.

Russian government income declined by over 20% between January and March 2023 compared to a year ago. The Russian Ministry of Finance posted a 45% plunge in government energy revenues in the same period.

According to the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report for July 2023, Russian oil export revenues were down by $1.5 billion month-on-month in June to $11.8 billion (down $9.9 billion year-on-year).

Independent research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air has estimated that the price cap on crude oil is costing Russia around €160 million per day.

Treasury Lords Minister Baroness Penn said: “The oil price cap is succeeding in its dual objectives – bearing down on Putin’s most lucrative source of revenues that could otherwise be used to fund his illegal war, while ensuring that vulnerable countries can continue to secure affordable oil.

“The oil price cap forms a critical part of the largest and most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on a major economy. We will continue to keep the pressure on Russia alongside our international partners.”

The G7 and Australia (G7+), who collectively constitute the Price Cap Coalition, agreed to cap the price of Russian seaborne oil and refined oil products in September 2022 as a way to undermine Putin’s ability to fund his illegal war in Ukraine through inflated global oil prices, while ensuring that third countries can continue to secure affordable oil. T

he crude oil price cap and high- and low-value refined oil price caps (collectively referred to as the G7+ oil price cap) were introduced on 5th December 2022 and 5th February 2023 respectively.

UK guidance has been periodically updated to assist market participants with implementation of, and compliance with, the cap, and OFSI will continue to engage collaboratively with industry partners to ensure as much clarity is provided as possible.

Recent routine fluctuations in oil prices have seen the average price of Urals rise above the G7+ cap level. For any above-cap trades, Russia will face significant headwinds in securing alternative service providers, with data from market intelligence provider Argus indicating that the cost to Russia of moving its product is considerable. This added burden on Russia will continue to contribute to depressed revenues.

The Price Cap Coalition continues to monitor the effectiveness of the price cap and is prepared to review and adjust the measure as appropriate to ensure that it continues to meet its twin goals.

The Bell, the bell … Granton gas holder work progresses

The bell that floated up as water filled the historic gasholder in Granton Waterfront has been taken apart to make way for work to begin to restore the original 76 x 46 metre frame to look like new.

The City of Edinburgh Council plan to open up the area to create a new and exciting multifunctional public space as part of their wider £1.3bn regeneration project to create a new sustainable coastal town at Granton Waterfront.

McLaughlin & Harvey began work on the site in January of this year on behalf of the Council using £16.4m from the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund. The Scottish Government has also provided an additional £1.2m to provide a high quality public park within the gasholder frame.

The space within the restored gasholder is to have multi-sensory play zones, a dedicated space for permanent and temporary public art, a relaxation area, outdoor trails and tracks for exercise as well as a large outdoor space for sports, markets, seasonal events, community use, festivals, performance arts, exhibitions and play.

Work will also be carried out to plant trees, shrubs and wildflowers improving biodiversity and local habitat in the area.

Council Leader Cammy Day said: “It was really dramatic to see the bell being ripped apart by the machinery. It marked a historic moment as this iconic structure will be transformed now to move on with the times to serve a completely different purpose for the local community to enjoy arts, sports and culture for future generations to come.

“Now the bell has gone the contractor can get on with the exciting work to transform the frame back to its original glory which will be seen for miles around.

“The scale and ambition of the gasholder nicely mirrors that of this £1.3bn regeneration project where we are using brownfield land to build a new sustainable 20-minute neighbourhood which is well linked to surrounding communities and is somewhere residents will be proud to live.

“We’ve already started building some of the thousands of environmentally friendly affordable homes planned and active travel routes, along with recently completing the restoration of the former Granton Station building to become a modern workplace and cultural hub, with public square.”

UK Government Minister for Levelling Up, Dehenna Davison, said: “The Granton gasholder has been part of Edinburgh’s skyline for over 120 years, and will soon be brought back to life as a real community asset.

“The bell’s removal will ensure the structure can be restored to its former glory, whilst the space will be brought into the 21^st Century by becoming a destination for families, residents, and future generations to enjoy.

“We’re delighted to have supported this project through £16.4 million from the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund which will ensure this iconic structure will serve as a beacon to people in the area for many years to come.”

Seamus Devlin, McLaughlin & Harvey Civil Engineering Director, said: “McLaughlin & Harvey is delighted to be main contractor for the restoration works at Granton gasholder.

“We bring with us a wealth of experience in the civil engineering sector, and look forward to completing the deconstruction of the bell this week and the removal of the walls in the upcoming weeks.”

Fascinating gasholder facts

Over 100K rivets holding the structure together
Total cost of original construction £18,968.
Was opened in 1901, making it 122 years old.
It’s since been painted 72 times.
26 columns in total with a height of 42m. each column is 9.3m apart.
Granton was one of 12 gas storage tanks for the greater Edinburgh area. These 12 tanks had a combined capacity of 175,000 cubic meters of storage. At the time they were in operation the demand was around 28,000 cubic meters an hour (at its peak).
The lowest tier was erected with the use of a steam locomotive crane.

The Granton Gas Holder is unique as the umbrella which supports the tank roof when the system is not pressurised, was made from timber as opposed to cast iron. These timbers were in remarkably great condition when demolition began.

The shape of things to come? UK Government boosts use of private sector to cut NHS waits

Thirteen new community diagnostic centres are opening across England to deliver more than 742,000 additional scans, tests and checks a year

The Elective Recovery Taskforce – formed last year to identify ways to cut waiting times – publishes plan to maximise independent sector capacity to treat NHS patients more quickly
Measures include better use of data to help the NHS identify potential opportunities for the independent sector to support patient care, and expanding training opportunities for staff

Thirteen new community diagnostic centres (CDCs) – including eight independently run CDCs – are being launched across England as part of UK government plans to use the independent sector to cut NHS waiting lists, Health and Social Care Secretary Steve Barclay will announce today.

Five of these independent sector-led CDCs will operate in the South West of England, with permanent sites fully opening in 2024 in Redruth, Bristol, Torbay, Yeovil and Weston Super Mare. Additional diagnostic testing capacity is already being rolled out in the region via the use of mobile diagnostic facilities, to provide additional diagnostic services while these sites are constructed.

Three others will open in Southend, Northampton and South Birmingham – with the former commencing activity from November and the latter two from December. These independently run CDCs will help to make it easier for patients to receive checks closer to home and will remain free at the point of use for patients. This adds to the four CDCs run by the independent sector that are already operational in Brighton, North Solihull, Oxford, and Salford.

Five more NHS-run centres will also open across the country, delivering on our ambition to open up to 160 across the country by 2025, backed by £2.3 billion. These will be in Hornchurch, Skegness, Lincoln, Nottingham and Stoke-on-Trent.

Health and Social Care Secretary, Steve Barclay, said: “We must use every available resource to deliver life-saving checks to ease pressure on the NHS.

“By making use of the available capacity in the independent sector, and enabling patients to access this diagnostic capacity free at the point of need, we can offer patients a wider choice of venues to receive treatment and in doing so diagnose major illnesses quicker and start treatments sooner.

“The Elective Recovery Taskforce has identified additional diagnostic capacity that is available in the independent sector which we will now use more widely to enable patients to access the care they need quicker.”

As well as being more convenient for patients, CDCs drive efficiency across the NHS by shielding elective diagnostic services from wider hospital pressures.

The government has also set out a range of new measures to unlock spare capacity within the independent healthcare sector. This comes following actions from the Elective Recovery Taskforce which was established last December.

Chaired by Health Minister Will Quince and made up of academics and experts from the NHS and independent sector, the taskforce looked for ways to go further to bust the Covid backlogs and reduce waiting times for patients.

The measures include a commitment to using data on independent sector providers to identify where they have capacity to take on more NHS patients to help clear the backlog and increasing the use of the independent sector in training junior NHS staff.

These thirteen new CDCs will provide capacity for more than 742,000 extra tests a year once all are fully operational, bolstering access to care.

Independent sector led centres will function like NHS-run CDCs, but staff will be employed by the independent sector, which also owns the buildings. The South West network will be run by InHealth, a specialist provider of diagnostic tests which has worked with hospitals and commissioners across the health service for more than 30 years. By utilising independent sector staff, the NHS will be able to keep pace with rising demand in the region and deliver a high number of tests for patients.

There are currently 114 CDCs open across the country, which have delivered an additional 4.6 million tests, checks and scans since July 2021. Alongside this, significant progress has already been made to cut waiting lists, with 18-month and two-year waits virtually eliminated.

Health Minister and Elective Recovery Taskforce Chair, Will Quince, said: “We have already made significant progress in bringing down waiting lists, with 18 month waits virtually eliminated.

“I chaired the Elective Recovery Taskforce to turbocharge these efforts and help patients get the treatment they need.

“These actions will bolster capacity across the country and give patients more choice over where and when they are treated.”

The taskforce aims to form strong local relationships between NHS organisations and the independent sector. This will help to support improved training opportunities for junior doctors through first-hand experience of procedures. This follows the NHS Long-Term Workforce Plan which will deliver the biggest training expansion in NHS history and recruit and retain hundreds of thousands more staff over the next 15 years.

The department has also published its response to a consultation on a new procurement system known as the Provider Selection Regime, which will give commissioners of healthcare services more flexibility when selecting NHS and independent sector healthcare providers. This is intended to remove unnecessary levels of competitive tendering and barriers to integrating care, which will help to promote collaboration across the NHS and wider healthcare system.

NHS England will evaluate the independent sector’s impact on healthcare capacity and has already begun publishing regular monthly data on independent sector use, showing its contribution to tackling the backlog.

NHS England National Clinical Director for Elective Care, Stella Vig, said: “Hardworking staff across the NHS have made significant progress towards recovering elective care, and it is testament to their efforts that widespread innovative measures are already being rolled out to transform our services and bring down the longest waits for patients.

“Alongside this, we have increased our use of the independent sector by more than a third since April 2021 – carrying out 90,000 appointments and procedures every week, including more than 10,000 diagnostic tests – and independent providers will continue to play a key role as we work towards the next milestone in our recovery plan, as well as the additional one stop shops announced today as part of NHS England’s rollout of community diagnostic centres.

“As this report details, we have already made significant progress in this area, including operating mutual aid systems across both the NHS and independent sector, and by expanding My Planned Care to make it easier for patients to choose where they receive care.”

David Hare, Chief Executive of IHPN, who sat on the Taskforce, said: “The publication of this report is good news for patients. This is a real, significant step forward to unlocking more of the capital, capacity and capability of the independent sector.

“Today’s report builds on the Prime Minister’s recent welcome announcements about how the government is committed to providing patients with better choice over who provides their NHS care, as well as positive changes in how services are procured, which can help add overall capacity and speed up waiting times for NHS patients.

“The report’s commitment to open further independent sector-led Community Diagnostic Centres is also good news for patients, deploying some of the private capital that is available to build new facilities and to help ensure that more NHS patients can get the tests and scans that they need.”

Rachel Power, Chief Executive of the Patients Association, said: “We are advocates of patients having choice and welcome today’s announcement. In particular, the news that GPs will tell patients, at the point of referral, of options for treatment other than the local hospital or clinic.

“Patients in England already have a right to choose where they are treated but not all patients are aware of this right or exercise it. Our expectation is that once GPs offer patients a choice of where to receive treatment, more and more patients will choose to travel further to receive treatment if that means shorter waits.”

Justin Ash, CEO of Spire Healthcare, said: “The best way to cut waiting times for patients is for the independent sector to be fully integrated as part of the solution, and to offer patient choice.

“We welcome the Elective Recovery Taskforce’s recognition of this and are pleased that it has recommended some bold and far-reaching steps to encourage collaboration, promote patient choice and engage the independent sector to help deliver the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan.

“The Taskforce’s work will genuinely benefit patients, who’ll be able to choose where they can receive treatment most quickly, regardless of whether that’s at an NHS or an independent sector hospital.”

This builds on previous work to give patients greater choice. At the point of referral (for example, at a GP appointment), patients will be actively offered a list of providers which are clinically appropriate for their condition.

This will be a minimum of five providers where possible. And by October 2023, all patients waiting over 40 weeks who have not had a first outpatient appointment booked or where a decision to treat has been made but the patient does not have a date for their treatment will be able to initiate a request to transfer to another provider and receive treatment more quickly.

Last month, the Health and Social Care Secretary also convened ministers, clinical leaders and health experts for the NHS Recovery Summit to collaborate and drive forward ideas to help cut waiting lists and improve care for patients.

Deal struck on a renewed Fiscal Framework for Scottish Government

UK Government will continue to top-up the Scottish Government’s tax revenues, worth £1.4 billion last year, as a benefit of strength and scale of the UK.
Boost to borrowing powers and backing of Barnett formula will build a better future for Scotland and help to grow the economy.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen hails a fair and responsible deal in line with the Prime Minister’s economic priorities.

The UK and Scottish Governments have today reached an agreement on an updated Fiscal Framework.

Holyrood’s capital borrowing powers will rise in line with inflation, enabling the Scottish Government to invest further in schools, hospitals, roads and other key infrastructure that will help to create better paid jobs and opportunity in Scotland.

The new deal maintains the Barnett formula, through which the Scottish Government receives over £8 billion more funding each year than if it received the levels of UK Government spending per person elsewhere in the UK. It also updates funding arrangements in relation to court revenues and the Crown Estate.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen, said: “This is a fair and responsible deal that has been arrived at following a serious and proactive offer from the UK Government.

“We have kept what works and listened to the Scottish Government’s calls for greater certainty and flexibility to deliver for Scotland.

“The Scottish Government can now use this for greater investment in public services to help the people of Scotland prosper. These are the clear benefits of a United Kingdom that is stronger as a union.”

The funding arrangements for tax will be continued, with the Scottish Government continuing to keep every penny of devolved Scottish taxes while also receiving an additional contribution from the rest of the UK.

Under the previous Fiscal Framework, the Scottish Government could borrow £450 million per year within a £3 billion cap, as well as receiving a Barnett-based share of UK Government borrowing. Going forward these amounts will instead rise in line with inflation, which supports additional investment across Scotland and lays the foundations for economic growth.

The UK Government has listened to calls from the Scottish Government for greater certainty and flexibility to help them manage their Budget and agreed a permanent doubling of the resource borrowing annual limit from £300 million to £600 million.

Limits on how much can be withdrawn from the Scotland Reserve to spend in future years will also be removed. This will boost spending through borrowing by £90 million in 2024/25. All future limits will increase in line with inflation.

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said:  “The renewed Fiscal Framework shows what can be achieved when there is a collaborative focus on delivering economic opportunity and why we are stronger and more prosperous as one United Kingdom.  

“The deal – worth billions of pounds to Scotland over the coming years – builds upon work to support economic growth and provide more high skill jobs, investment and future opportunities for local people, such as the establishment of Investment Zones and Freeports in Scotland.

“The UK Government knows that high prices are still a huge worry for families. That’s why we’re sticking to our plan to halve inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy.  As well as providing targeted cost of living support, we are directly investing more than £2.4 billion in hundreds of projects across Scotland as we help level up the country.”  

As both governments continue to work together to tackle challenges like the cost of living, an updated Fiscal Framework equips the Scottish Government with the instruments for growth while protecting the wider public finances.

Scotland’s Deputy First Minister Shona Robison said: “This is a finely balanced agreement that gives us some extra flexibility to deal with unexpected shocks, against a background of continuing widespread concern about the sustainability of UK public finances and while it is a narrower review than we would have liked, I am grateful to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury for reaching this deal.

“As I set out in the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, we are committed to tackling poverty, building a fair, green and growing economy, and improving our public services to make them fit for the needs of future generations.

“We still face a profoundly challenging situation and will need to make tough choices in the context of a poorly performing UK economy and the constraints of devolution, to ensure finances remain sustainable.”

This morning the UK and Scottish governments have published the long-awaited update to the Fiscal Framework, following the review that has been going on for the last couple of years (writes MAIRI SPOWAGE of the Fraser of Allander Institute).

Since this was due to happen in 2021, we have been waiting for the outcome of this review. For more background, see our blog from late 2021.

For those new to it, the Fiscal Framework sets out the rules for how devolution of tax and social security powers following the Scotland Act 2016 is supposed to work in terms of finances. It sets out the mechanisms by which the Scottish block grant is adjusted to reflect the fact that large amounts of tax and social security powers are now the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament.

It also sets out fiscal flexibilities that the Scottish Government can choose to use in managing these new powers, as new tax and social security powers also come with risks that require to be managed.

In this blog, we set out the main headlines and our initial reaction to the updates.

The mechanism for adjusting the Block Grant will remain permanently as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.

This is one of the most complex areas of the fiscal framework but definitely one of the most significant.

For tax, it sets out the mechanism for working out how much the UK Government has “given up” by devolving a tax to Scotland, given that it is a significant loss in revenue. As, following devolution, there are different policies pursued in rest of UK and Scotland, this is not straightforward. Essentially though, the mechanism agreed in 2016 was to grow the tax at the point of devolution at the rate, per person, that it grows in the rest of the UK. This is known as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.

So, the idea is that if taxes per head grow quicker in Scotland, the Scottish Budget will be better off – conversely, if taxes per head grow more slowly, the Scottish Budget will be worse off.

In 2016, when the fiscal framework was first agreed, the IPC method was the SG’s preference, whereas the UKG preferred the “Comparable Method” (which would generally be worse than the IPC method for the Scottish Budget). SO they agreed to use IPC for the first 5 years and review it in this review published today.

They have now agreed that the IPC method will remain on a permanent basis.

Interestingly, this means that on a permanent basis, the mechanisms for adjusting the block grants for Wales and Scotland will be different, given Wales’s Fiscal Framework uses the Comparable Method, albeit with additional provisions to keep a funding floor in place.

Borrowing Powers for managing forecast error have been increased significantly

Resource borrowing powers to manage forecast error associated with tax and social security powers have been increased from £300m to £600m. This is required because when budgets are set, the tax, social security and block grant adjustment estimates are set on the basis of forecasts from both the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for Budget Responsibility. When the outturn data is available, if there is a discrepancy (which is very likely) then the Scottish Budget has to reconcile these differences.

This will be good news for the Deputy First Minister looking ahead to delivering her first budget in December, given that it was confirmed recently that there will be a large negative reconciliation to reflect income tax receipts in 2021-22 of £390m. As these changes are coming into effect for the 2024-25 budget year, this means she will have more flexibility to borrow to cover this.

All limits, such as resource and capital borrowing powers, will be uprated in line with inflation

When the Fiscal Framework was first agreed, the limits on borrowing for both resource and capital, and the limits for what could be put into the Scotland reserve, were set in cash terms and have been fixed ever since.

This agreement today sets out that the ones that remain will be uprated by inflation (although the exact inflation measure and timing is still to be confirmed), and that the limits on the additions and drawdowns on the Scotland Reserve will also be abolished.

The VAT Assignment can gets kicked down the road again

One thing that is a little disappointing is that there was no final decision on VAT Assignment. See our blog from 2019 to get the background in this.

VAT Assignment was included as part of the Smith Commission powers. The idea was that half of VAT raised in Scotland would be assigned to the Scottish Budget, which would mean, if the Scottish Economy was performing better than the UK as a whole, the budget would be better off, and conversely, if VAT was growing less quickly in Scotland, the budget would be worse off.

However, after almost 10 years, it has become clear that there is no way to estimate VAT in Scotland that is precise enough for this to have budgetary implications. It is a large amount of money (more than £5 billion) so even small fluctuations in how it is estimated can mean changes of hundreds of millions of pounds.

Today, the Governments have agreed to just keep discussing it. We think it is time that everyone admitted it is just not a sensible idea.

We’ll keep digging through the detail of everything published today and will provide more commentary through our weekly update on Friday.