- UK Government will continue to top-up the Scottish Government’s tax revenues, worth £1.4 billion last year, as a benefit of strength and scale of the UK.
- Boost to borrowing powers and backing of Barnett formula will build a better future for Scotland and help to grow the economy.
- Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen hails a fair and responsible deal in line with the Prime Minister’s economic priorities.
The UK and Scottish Governments have today reached an agreement on an updated Fiscal Framework.
Holyrood’s capital borrowing powers will rise in line with inflation, enabling the Scottish Government to invest further in schools, hospitals, roads and other key infrastructure that will help to create better paid jobs and opportunity in Scotland.
The new deal maintains the Barnett formula, through which the Scottish Government receives over £8 billion more funding each year than if it received the levels of UK Government spending per person elsewhere in the UK. It also updates funding arrangements in relation to court revenues and the Crown Estate.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen, said: “This is a fair and responsible deal that has been arrived at following a serious and proactive offer from the UK Government.
“We have kept what works and listened to the Scottish Government’s calls for greater certainty and flexibility to deliver for Scotland.
“The Scottish Government can now use this for greater investment in public services to help the people of Scotland prosper. These are the clear benefits of a United Kingdom that is stronger as a union.”
The funding arrangements for tax will be continued, with the Scottish Government continuing to keep every penny of devolved Scottish taxes while also receiving an additional contribution from the rest of the UK.
Under the previous Fiscal Framework, the Scottish Government could borrow £450 million per year within a £3 billion cap, as well as receiving a Barnett-based share of UK Government borrowing. Going forward these amounts will instead rise in line with inflation, which supports additional investment across Scotland and lays the foundations for economic growth.
The UK Government has listened to calls from the Scottish Government for greater certainty and flexibility to help them manage their Budget and agreed a permanent doubling of the resource borrowing annual limit from £300 million to £600 million.
Limits on how much can be withdrawn from the Scotland Reserve to spend in future years will also be removed. This will boost spending through borrowing by £90 million in 2024/25. All future limits will increase in line with inflation.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “The renewed Fiscal Framework shows what can be achieved when there is a collaborative focus on delivering economic opportunity and why we are stronger and more prosperous as one United Kingdom.
“The deal – worth billions of pounds to Scotland over the coming years – builds upon work to support economic growth and provide more high skill jobs, investment and future opportunities for local people, such as the establishment of Investment Zones and Freeports in Scotland.
“The UK Government knows that high prices are still a huge worry for families. That’s why we’re sticking to our plan to halve inflation, reduce debt and grow the economy. As well as providing targeted cost of living support, we are directly investing more than £2.4 billion in hundreds of projects across Scotland as we help level up the country.”
As both governments continue to work together to tackle challenges like the cost of living, an updated Fiscal Framework equips the Scottish Government with the instruments for growth while protecting the wider public finances.
Scotland’s Deputy First Minister Shona Robison said: “This is a finely balanced agreement that gives us some extra flexibility to deal with unexpected shocks, against a background of continuing widespread concern about the sustainability of UK public finances and while it is a narrower review than we would have liked, I am grateful to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury for reaching this deal.
“As I set out in the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, we are committed to tackling poverty, building a fair, green and growing economy, and improving our public services to make them fit for the needs of future generations.
“We still face a profoundly challenging situation and will need to make tough choices in the context of a poorly performing UK economy and the constraints of devolution, to ensure finances remain sustainable.”
This morning the UK and Scottish governments have published the long-awaited update to the Fiscal Framework, following the review that has been going on for the last couple of years (writes MAIRI SPOWAGE of the Fraser of Allander Institute).
Since this was due to happen in 2021, we have been waiting for the outcome of this review. For more background, see our blog from late 2021.
For those new to it, the Fiscal Framework sets out the rules for how devolution of tax and social security powers following the Scotland Act 2016 is supposed to work in terms of finances. It sets out the mechanisms by which the Scottish block grant is adjusted to reflect the fact that large amounts of tax and social security powers are now the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament.
It also sets out fiscal flexibilities that the Scottish Government can choose to use in managing these new powers, as new tax and social security powers also come with risks that require to be managed.
In this blog, we set out the main headlines and our initial reaction to the updates.
The mechanism for adjusting the Block Grant will remain permanently as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.
This is one of the most complex areas of the fiscal framework but definitely one of the most significant.
For tax, it sets out the mechanism for working out how much the UK Government has “given up” by devolving a tax to Scotland, given that it is a significant loss in revenue. As, following devolution, there are different policies pursued in rest of UK and Scotland, this is not straightforward. Essentially though, the mechanism agreed in 2016 was to grow the tax at the point of devolution at the rate, per person, that it grows in the rest of the UK. This is known as the Index Per Capita (IPC) method.
So, the idea is that if taxes per head grow quicker in Scotland, the Scottish Budget will be better off – conversely, if taxes per head grow more slowly, the Scottish Budget will be worse off.
In 2016, when the fiscal framework was first agreed, the IPC method was the SG’s preference, whereas the UKG preferred the “Comparable Method” (which would generally be worse than the IPC method for the Scottish Budget). SO they agreed to use IPC for the first 5 years and review it in this review published today.
They have now agreed that the IPC method will remain on a permanent basis.
Interestingly, this means that on a permanent basis, the mechanisms for adjusting the block grants for Wales and Scotland will be different, given Wales’s Fiscal Framework uses the Comparable Method, albeit with additional provisions to keep a funding floor in place.
Borrowing Powers for managing forecast error have been increased significantly
Resource borrowing powers to manage forecast error associated with tax and social security powers have been increased from £300m to £600m. This is required because when budgets are set, the tax, social security and block grant adjustment estimates are set on the basis of forecasts from both the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for Budget Responsibility. When the outturn data is available, if there is a discrepancy (which is very likely) then the Scottish Budget has to reconcile these differences.
This will be good news for the Deputy First Minister looking ahead to delivering her first budget in December, given that it was confirmed recently that there will be a large negative reconciliation to reflect income tax receipts in 2021-22 of £390m. As these changes are coming into effect for the 2024-25 budget year, this means she will have more flexibility to borrow to cover this.
All limits, such as resource and capital borrowing powers, will be uprated in line with inflation
When the Fiscal Framework was first agreed, the limits on borrowing for both resource and capital, and the limits for what could be put into the Scotland reserve, were set in cash terms and have been fixed ever since.
This agreement today sets out that the ones that remain will be uprated by inflation (although the exact inflation measure and timing is still to be confirmed), and that the limits on the additions and drawdowns on the Scotland Reserve will also be abolished.
The VAT Assignment can gets kicked down the road again
One thing that is a little disappointing is that there was no final decision on VAT Assignment. See our blog from 2019 to get the background in this.
VAT Assignment was included as part of the Smith Commission powers. The idea was that half of VAT raised in Scotland would be assigned to the Scottish Budget, which would mean, if the Scottish Economy was performing better than the UK as a whole, the budget would be better off, and conversely, if VAT was growing less quickly in Scotland, the budget would be worse off.
However, after almost 10 years, it has become clear that there is no way to estimate VAT in Scotland that is precise enough for this to have budgetary implications. It is a large amount of money (more than £5 billion) so even small fluctuations in how it is estimated can mean changes of hundreds of millions of pounds.
Today, the Governments have agreed to just keep discussing it. We think it is time that everyone admitted it is just not a sensible idea.
We’ll keep digging through the detail of everything published today and will provide more commentary through our weekly update on Friday.