Funding for scientific and technological health projects
More than £6 million will be invested as part of the Accelerated National Innovations Adoption (ANIA) programme to help people with type 2 Diabetes, stroke patients and babies born with a rare genetic condition.
A national digital intensive weight management programme will support 3,000 people recently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. With £4.5 million invested over three years the project is expected to help around 40% to achieve remission from the condition by the end of their first year in the programme.
Two additional projects will look at pharmacogenetics – how a person’s genetics affect their response to certain drugs.
A total of £1.1 million will support testing of recent stroke patients to determine if they have a genetic variation that impairs the benefits of a drug commonly prescribed to reduce the risk of secondary stroke and which would mean an alternative drug should be considered for them.
A programme to provide a genetic test for newborn babies will also receive £800,000 funding to determine if they have a genetic variation which puts them at risk of permanent hearing loss if they are treated with a common emergency antibiotic.
Cabinet Secretary for Health Neil Gray said: “In January the First Minister laid out our vision for Scotland’s NHS with digital innovation being a crucial part of our plans to reform health services.
“So I am pleased to announce funding for these projects which demonstrate the transformative potential of scientific and technological innovation to improve health and social care.
“These projects have life changing effects for those who will benefit from them, resulting in improved health outcomes and a better quality of life.
“Innovation is transforming healthcare and delivering medical benefits for the people of Scotland and the NHS, which will see reduced pressures as a direct result of projects just like these.”
Chief Executive of NHS Golden Jubilee, Gordon James, said: “”The approval of these innovative projects through the Accelerated National Innovation Adoption (ANIA) pathway is a significant step in delivering transformative innovations at scale to benefit patients all across Scotland.
“Lead by the Centre for Sustainable Delivery (CfSD), this project to deliver the diabetes remission programmes, pharmacogenetic testing for stroke, and genetic testing for newborns was an incredible example of collaboration from NHS organisations and colleagues to deliver the highest possible standard of patient care.
“The ANIA pathway is an initiative by NHS Scotland aimed at expediting the integration of high-impact innovations into healthcare services, and that’s exactly these new programmes will offer for more patients across Scotland than ever before.”
Chief Scientist, Prof Dame Anna Dominiczak said: “Scotland’s triple helix of industry, academia and our NHS are working in partnership to lead a scientific revolution which has the power to transform healthcare.
“These are excellent examples of research enabled, clinically beneficial and cost-effective innovations, which should be prioritised for national adoption”
Ensuring people receive help before reaching crisis
Further measures to prevent people experiencing the trauma of homelessness will be introduced as part of amendments to the Housing (Scotland) Bill.
The Bill currently places a stronger importance on preventing homelessness through ‘ask and act’ duties on social landlords and relevant bodies, such as Health Boards, Police Scotland and the Scottish Prison Service, to ask about a person’s housing situation as early as they can and act to avoid them becoming homeless wherever possible.
Scottish Government amendments to the Bill, developed with help from homelessness charities including Crisis, will ensure people get the help they need. They will also require a range of services to do more to prevent homelessness and to co-operate, share information and will be specific on what is required of them to help people remain in their homes, supported by £4 million pilot programmes in 2025-26.
Housing Minister Paul McLennan said: “We want Scotland to be a world leader in homelessness prevention. We already have the strongest homeless rights in the world, but we want to go even further. These changes to the Housing Bill will increase the likelihood that people will receive help before reaching the point of crisis.
“Making sure everyone has the right to a safe and stable home is essential to the Scottish Government’s priority of ending child poverty and the Bill will play a role in reaching that goal.
“Working closely with our partners including Crisis, we have developed a set of amendments that further strengthens rights and gives people the help they need by ensuring that preventing homelessness becomes a collective responsibility across society.
“These amendments will have a lasting, positive impact for many households, and I urge Parliament to back them when they come to a vote.”
COUNCILLORS APPROVE RELOCATION TO NEW WATERFRONT SITE
Social Bite, renowned for its ground-breaking efforts to combat homelessness, has welcomed Edinburgh City Council’s approval of the relocation of the charity’s supported accommodation facility to a new site at Granton Waterfront.
Councillors voted in favour of the move, ensuring that support can continue for up to 16 residents at any given time. Each person who finds a home at the Village has experienced homelessness, and the supported accommodation aims to break the cycle by providing round-the-clock support and reintegration into community living.
Despite a recommendation by the Housing and Planning Committee to reject the proposal due to concerns about the site’s alignment with Edinburgh’s greenbelt targets, councillors unanimously overturned this recommendation.
They cited the charity’s excellent use of greenspace for community gardening—with 50% of the site committed to such purposes—noting that the Social Bite Village contributes to the city’s efforts to effectively use greenspace. Other comments of support highlighted the project’s “overriding benefit to the community and public.”
This significant vote to overturn the recommendation means the proposal will now be submitted to Scottish Government Ministers for a final decision.
The new site, which will continue to be managed by fellow homelessness charity Cyrenians, is less than a mile from the current Village in Granton.
It was selected following a resident survey that identified local amenities and greenspace as important factors, enabling residents to carry out daily tasks such as shopping and commuting to work. The proximity to the Granton seaside was also a key consideration.
The relocation will bring a refresh to the Hub, a communal area where residents can cook, gather, and relax. Additionally, the new location will introduce seven redesigned and improved one-bedroom “Nest Houses,” developed in response to resident feedback.
Social Bite and Cyrenians, which has managed the Village since its inception in 2018, have collaborated to ensure a smooth transition for current residents.
The decision to relocate was prompted by the planned end of the current lease on land donated by Edinburgh City Council, which is part of phase one of the Granton Waterfront development plans. The original lease term was five years and later extended by an additional two years.
The pre-fabricated houses were designed for easy relocation, allowing the charity to make use of a “meanwhile site” that would otherwise have been unoccupied. This adaptability is a key part of Social Bite’s innovative approach.
Josh Littlejohn MBE, founder of Social Bite, said: “We’re thrilled that Edinburgh City Council has approved our planning application for the Social Bite Village today.
“We’d like to thank the councillors for visiting the proposed site and for suggesting a hearing to learn more about how this valuable project will contribute to the Granton regeneration programme.
“We look forward to the next stage and to working with Edinburgh City Council to make a real difference for people experiencing homelessness in Scotland today.”
At the end of their stay at the Village, residents receive support transitioning to permanent accommodation and employment. To date, the Edinburgh Village has helped over 120 residents, many of whom have secured jobs and moved into their own homes.
For more information on the Edinburgh Village, visit:
Proposed regulations to support next phase of rollout
Families could get quicker access to free school meals under proposed new regulations laid at Holyrood.
If agreed by MSPs, the regulations would see Social Security Scotland given new powers, allowing them to share Scottish Child Payment data with local authorities. This would allow councils to ensure eligible pupils receive their free school meals.
The latest phase of the free school meals programme will include all pupils in receipt of the Scottish Child Payment in Primaries 6 to 7 and S1-S3 in eight local authority areas.
Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth said: “Free school meals are a crucial element of the Scottish Government’s ambition to eradicate child poverty, and the provision is currently available to over 273,000 pupils across Scotland, saving families who take up the offer around £400 per child per year.
“The next phase of the rollout will significantly build upon this, with an additional 25,000 pupils being able to benefit from this vital provision. Through further support for data sharing, local authorities will be able to more quickly identify those eligible for this next phase.
“That is why we have proposed these changes to streamline the process to help more families and remove any administrative burden for local authorities. I would encourage members of the Committee to back these proposals to ensure more families can easily access the support they need.”
Holyrood’s Education, Children and Young People Committee will vote on the regulations on Wednesday 2 April. If approved, they will come into effect from 19 May 2025.
Social Security Scotland has started the transfer of 169,000 benefit awards
Pension Age Disability Payment is replacing Attendance Allowance in Scotland.Social Security Scotland has begun transferring the awards of 169,000 people in Scotland who currently receive Attendance Allowance from the Department for Work and Pensions.
People do not need to take any action; the transfer will happen automatically in phases throughout 2025. Everyone will continue to receive their payments on time and in the right amount.
Social Security Scotland will notify people by letter when their benefit has been selected for transfer and it should take up to three months for the transfer from the Department for Work and Pensions. There will be no gaps in payments while people’s awards are being transferred.
Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said: “The Scottish Government is committed to ensuring that older people who have care needs because of a disability, long-term health condition or terminal illness get the financial support that they’re entitled to.
“As people’s awards start to transfer from Attendance Allowance, to Pension Age Disability Payment, they will be kept informed of this process and treated with dignity, fairness and respect.
“Pension Age Disability Payment is being rolled out across Scotland in phases. If the payment is currently open for new applications in your area and you think you could be eligible for support right now, I would encourage you to apply.
“If the payment is not yet available in your area, you can still apply for Attendance Allowance from the Department for Work and Pensions.”
Pension Age Disability Payment is currently open for new applications in Aberdeen City, Argyll and Bute, Highland, Orkney and Shetland. It will become available in more areas from 24 March before becoming available throughout Scotland from 22 April 2025.
More than £2 million will fund wrap-around support to households
The Scottish Government will invest nearly £2.2 million to enable the Wise Group to provide wrap-around support to individuals and families on low incomes in six local authority areas.
The investment, from the Tackling Child Poverty Fund, was announced by Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville during a Scottish Parliament debate on supporting households with cost-of-living pressures and rising energy bills.
It will allow the Wise Group to continue with work which has so far helped 3,200 households, enabling people to find work, increase their skills and improve their financial situation.
The wrap-around nature of the support means mentors from the Wise Group are also able to support people to improve their mental health and wellbeing.
Ms Somerville said: “We know people continue to face pressures with the cost of living and the recent announcement that energy bills are set to rise again this month will only add to those pressures.
“The Wise Group work we are funding, offers support not just with an immediate crisis, but aims to help people make long-term improvements to their financial stability, helping them to access help with issues such as childcare, training and finding sustainable work.
“Eradicating child poverty is the Scottish Government’s overriding mission. This year’s budget commits more than £3 billion to a range of actions to tackle poverty and the cost of living. However our efforts are undermined by the social security policies of the UK Government, not least the two-child cap which prevents parents from claiming universal credit for more than two children.
“That is why we will develop the systems necessary to effectively scrap the impact of the two-child cap in 2026. The Child Poverty Action Group estimates that scrapping the cap in Scotland could lift 15,000 children out of poverty.”
“Today, I am announcing more investment to ensure that families get the help they need, when they need it.”
Social Justice Secretary @S_A_Somerville announced over £2 million funding to provide wrap-around support to families on low incomes.
Sean Duffy, Wise Group Chief Executive said: “This investment is a vital opportunity to rethink how we deliver services, strengthen local partnerships, and take a preventative, ‘invest to save’ approach that drives lasting change in tackling poverty.”
The first tenants have moved into ‘net zero ready’ affordable homes delivered by the Council at Western Villages in Granton Waterfront.Once fully occupied the site will deliver 388 affordable homes, a mixture of social rent and mid-market rent.
Housing Convener Lezley Marion Cameron and Housing Minister Paul Mclennan visited the partially completed affordable housing development yesterday.
This follows the first tenants moving into Granton Station View where 75 energy efficient homes for social rent and mid-market rent were delivered in October last year. Work is also well underway to deliver a further 143 affordable ‘net zero ready’ homes at nearby Silverlea.
A housing emergency was declared in Edinburgh in November 2023 and so the affordable homes at Western Villages built by CCG (Scotland) Ltd on behalf of the Council are much needed.
The homes at Western Villages consist of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, including wheelchair-accessible ground-floor dwellings that will each benefit from stunning parkland and sea views.
To achieve net zero carbon, the homes were constructed using advanced construction methods to improve thermal performance (and reduce heat loss).
Delivered with an on-site energy centre containing air-source heat pumps and renewable technologies such as solar PV panels, this low carbon heat system and zero emissions strategy was supported by £4.1m of funding from the Scottish Government’s Low Carbon Infrastructure Transition Programme.
Sustainability credentials will be further enhanced by limited cark parking spaces within the development, provision of Electric Vehicle charging and an increased emphasis on active travel, all in a bid to promote the use of more sustainable modes of transport.
Other innovative features in the development include an underground waste collection system, cycle parking twice the capacity of the residents living there and links to existing and established walking, cycling and wheeling routes.
This housing forms part of the council’s wider £1.3bn regeneration of Granton Waterfront.
The next stage of delivery will get underway later this year with plans for a further 847 net zero ready homes, a new primary school, a low carbon heat network, commercial and retail space and new and upgraded active travel network.
A grant of almost £16m was announced by the Scottish Government last week from their Housing Infrastructure Fund to help part fund some of the upfront site wide infrastructure and enabling required for the next phase.
Housing Convener Cllr Lezley Marion Cameron said:“We’re in the midst of a housing emergency so I’m delighted to see real progress being made to address it with these much-needed homes being delivered in Granton.
“These homes will not only ease our housing shortage, but they will provide individuals and families with comfortable modern homes using the very latest technology to keep energy bills down.
“I wish everyone moving into Western Villages well. It’s encouraging to know that hundreds of other individuals and families will be moving into these new homes at Granton Waterfront in the months ahead.”
Housing Minister Paul McLennan said:“It was good to see the first residents at Western Villages moving into their new highly energy efficient social and mid-market rent homes. These have been supported with over £15 million in funding since 2020 from our Affordable Housing Supply Programme.
“As the First Minister announced last week, a further £15.86 million grant to the City of Edinburgh Council will be provided from our Housing Infrastructure Fund to help support the building of net zero homes at Granton Waterfront in further phases.
“Since 2007, we have delivered more than 135,000 affordable homes including 95,000 for social rent and 26,306 council homes.
“Furthermore, our budget of £768 million for 2025–26 will help to tackle the housing emergency as well as move towards our target of providing 110,000 affordable homes by 2032.”
CCG Director Calum Murray said: “It was a pleasure to welcome the Housing Minister to Western Villages today, Scotland’s largest net-zero ready residential development.
“Not only is the project a flagship for sustainable, all-tenure housing delivery in Edinburgh – including the city’s first-ever, net-zero ready homes for sale by CCG Homes – but it is also a leading example of what can be achieved through collaboration and partnership working.
“With the use of pioneering construction standards and a legacy of jobs and training, the positive impact of Western Villages will transcend the Granton Waterfront Regeneration, and we look forward to the weeks ahead as we welcome tenants and homeowners alike to this new, coastal community.”
As Scotland’s hospitals experienced the second worst January on record for A&E performance, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine has told the government ‘we need more than apologies, we need action’.
The figures, released last week (4 March) by Public Health Scotland, come after the First Minister, John Swinney and Health Secretary, Neil Gray, apologised to patients who have experienced extremely long stays in A&Es.
The PHS data, for the month of January, reveals 8,401 patients waited 12 hours or longer in an Emergency Department before being admitted, discharged or transferred.
Since January 2018, the number of people waiting 12 hours or more in major A&Es has increased by 11 times (767 to 8,401), eight hours or more by six times (2,816 to 16,684) and four hours or more by 2.6 times (15,401 to 40,552).
Patients are often stuck in Emergency Departments, on trolleys in corridors, experiencing extremely long stays because there are no in-patient beds available.
This is caused because people who are well-enough to go home cannot be discharged, often due to a lack of social care support.
Therefore, the system grinds to a halt, with ambulances queued outside EDs, waiting to handover their vulnerable patients.
So called ‘delayed discharges’ meant that an average of 1,964 patients each day were in hospital, waiting to be discharged, despite being deemed medically well enough to go home. This is the highest number since 2016, when guidelines changed.
Dr Fiona Hunter, Vice President of RCEM Scotland said: “This data provides a glimpse into the levels of pressure major hospitals in Scotland were under during the depths of winter.
“Each figure, a person who was seeking urgent care in a system that is well off being described as ‘gold standard’.
“And behind each person, is a team of hard-working and burnt-out Emergency Medicine clinicians who are trying to deliver the best care they can to patients who are often on a trolley in a corridor.
“The time for warm words and apologies from policy makers has passed, we need action. Long stays are not just inconvenient – they are dangerous. This is where the real harm lies for patient safety.
“The government’s operational improvement plan, set to be delivered this month, is a golden opportunity to detail how it will address this vitally important issue.
“Until a meaningful plan is put in place, staff and patients will continue to bear the brunt of a system that is in crisis.”
The Scottish Liberal Democrats recently revealed that an 87-year-old woman waited around 12 hours at A&E on separate occasions after she fell and broke her hip.
Her experience was highlighted as the party released data showing 12,438 people aged over 85 waited more than 12 hours in A&E in 2024.
After hearing the patient’s experience, First Minister John Swinney apologised to her and her family for the wait.
Earlier last month, Health Secretary Neil Gray MSP apologised on BBC’s ‘Reporting Scotland’, stating “anybody that is waiting for too long to receive services, either in an Accident and Emergency Department or waiting on elective procedure, I apologise to them. It’s not an acceptable situation.”
Joe Griffin appointed top civil servant at the Scottish Government
Joe Griffin has been appointed Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Government and will take up post in April 2025.
Mr Griffin has served as a Director General in the Scottish Government since 2021 and led across a range of policy and delivery priorities during his 29 years in the Civil Service, including delivery of the expansion of Early Learning and Childcare to 1,140 hours per week, the same level as primary school.
This appointment has been made formally by the UK Cabinet Secretary, Chris Wormald, on the agreement of the First Minister, John Swinney, and the recommendation of the First Civil Service Commissioner. Mr Griffin will succeed John-Paul Marks, who will take up the role of First Permanent Secretary and Chief Executive of His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC).
As chief official policy adviser, the Permanent Secretary works closely with the First Minister across the full range of responsibilities, including major strategic and policy issues, and is Secretary to the Scottish Cabinet.
The First Minister, John Swinney, said: “My thanks to JP Marks for his devoted public service and leadership of the Civil Service. My Cabinet and I are grateful for the invaluable advice he has provided during his time at the Scottish Government. I join with so many across the Scottish public sector and beyond in wishing JP every success in his new role at HMRC.
“I welcome Joe Griffin’s appointment as Permanent Secretary of the Scottish Government. He brings a wealth of experience to this role from his distinguished career in the Civil Service. I know from his record of delivery, not least on the massive expansion of early learning and childcare that he led, that Joe will deliver an unyielding focus on delivering for the people of Scotland.”
UK Cabinet Secretary Sir Chris Wormald said: “I would like to congratulate Joe on his appointment.
“He brings extensive experience from his roles at Scottish Government, including as Director General for Strategy and External Affairs and previously Director General for Education and Justice. Joe is well placed to lead the organisation and provide excellent support to Ministers.
“I would like to thank JP Marks for his leadership of the Scottish Government over the last three years.”
Commenting on his appointment, Joe Griffin said: “It is a privilege to be appointed Permanent Secretary and lead the Civil Service in the Scottish Government. I am grateful to the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary for this opportunity.
“My focus will be on working with colleagues and partners to drive progress and deliver the government’s four priorities; eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency, and ensuring high quality and sustainable public services. I look forward to leading the organisation as we deliver in the service of Scotland.”
As the principal accountable officer for the Scottish Government, the Permanent Secretary is personally responsible to the Scottish Parliament for the exercise of their responsibilities. This includes the management of the Scottish Government’s budget and the economic, efficient and effective use of all related resources.
We have heard this week that the UK Government Chancellor Rachel Reeves intends to make cuts to the welfare bill to bring UK Government borrowing down in line with her fiscal rules ahead of the next OBR forecasts due at the end of the month (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s EMMA CONGREVE).
Reports state that the axe is likely to fall on health and disability related benefits for working age people.
Here we produce a bit of an explainer to get people up to speed on the benefits in scope and what has been happening in recent years.
Which benefits could be in line for cuts?
There are two types of benefits in Great Britain (benefits in Northern Ireland are arranged differently) that working age people with disabilities and ill health can claim.
Incapacity Benefits
The first type is an income replacement benefit that tops up income for families where the disability or health condition limits their ability to work, commonly referred to as incapacity benefits. They are means tested so that the amount you receive depends on your household income and reduces as income (e.g. from a partner’s earnings) rises.
Chart: Caseload of incapacity benefits for working age adults, Scotland
Notes: Universal credit and ESA exclude those in the assessment phase in line with OBR Welfare Trends Report analysis. Northern Ireland not included.
Sources: DWP, ONS
Universal Credit (UC) has been slowly replacing Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) for this group of people since 2018 so the reduction in ESA over time reflects migration over to UC rather than a change in disability/health status.
Disability Benefits
The second type of support for those with disabilities and ill health comes from payments to cover additional costs, for example due to reduced mobility, and are commonly referred to as disability benefits. They are not means tested and people do work whilst they are on these benefits.
In Scotland this type of benefit is now devolved, with Adult Disability Payment (ADP) slowly replacing Personal Independent Payment (PIP). PIP itself was a replacement for Disability Living Allowance (DLA) which no longer takes new applications and has a caseload that is reducing over time.
Chart: Caseload of disability benefits for working age adults, Scotland
Note: Adult Disability Payment started to replace PIP in Scotland from 2022. In England and Wales, PIP remains the main payment.
Source: DWP, ONS, Social Security Scotland
Which benefits are devolved?
Incapacity benefits (UC and ESA) are reserved benefits which means they largely operate in the same way across Great Britian, with the cost of the benefit in Scotland met by the UK Government. Any cuts made by the UK Government would apply in Scotland.
Disability benefits (PIP. SDA and ADP) are devolved, and there are differences in how the benefits operate in Scotland. The Scottish Government meets the costs of the benefit. To offset this, an amount is paid from the UK Government in the block grant, equivalent to the UK Government’s spending in Scotland if the benefits hadn’t been devolved and if spending had grown at the same per capita rate as in England and Wales.
The Scottish Government has to find additional money if expenditure on Scotland starts to diverge from the rest of GB trend due to policy changes (or perhaps, if our population gets relatively sicker).
Any cuts to PIP or SDA made by the UK Government would not apply in Scotland, but the block grant from UK Government would fall. If the Scottish Government did not replicate the cuts, they would have to find additional money from elsewhere in the Scottish Budget to offset the fall.
What has changed since the pandemic and has it been the same in Scotland as the rest of Great Britain?
As the above charts show, the caseload (the number of people claiming these benefits) has been rising steadily in recent years for both these benefits across GB and is forecast to continue to do so.
The caseload in Scotland has long been higher than in England and Wales due to a higher prevalence of people with disabilities and long-term health conditions.
In recent years, incapacity benefits caseload growth has been slower (49% in Scotland compared to 59% in rGB between May 2019 and August 2024) but due to different levels of population growth caseload per capita (which is the caseload measure shown in the charts) has been slightly higher in Scotland (7% to 11% of working age population compared to 5 % to 8% for rGB).
For disability benefits, the introduction of Adult Disability Payment makes it difficult to compare like-with-like. Although eligibility has remained broadly the same, the application process has been made more accessible and this appears to have led to an increase in people applying following its introduction.
For more detail on this, see this paper from our sister organisation the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU). It’s also possible that some people in Scotland delayed making a PIP application to DWP in anticipation of ADP opening for applications.
This may help to explain why, since 2019, the growth in the caseload in Scotland has been only slightly higher than rGB (63% increase in Scotland between May 2019 and Aug 2024 compared to 61% for rGB). In per-capita terms, due to lower population growth in Scotland, the growth has been a bit more significant (increase from 8% of the working age population to 14% in Scotland between May 2019 and Aug 2024, compared to 6% to 9% for rGB).
Do we know why rates have increased?
There are many theories as to why rates have increased but, for a number of reasons, it has been difficult to fully evidence exactly what is going on.
We know from IFS research that rates have increased more in Great Britain than they have in other countries. The IFS also looked at entry and exit rates for disability benefits England and Wales and concluded that around 2/3 of the increase is due to people starting claims and 1/3 is due to fewer people ending their claim.
There are likely to be a number of intersecting factors. We summarise some of these issues below but overall emphasise that we don’t fully know the extent to which these interact.
The working age population is getting older
On average, people’s health deteriorates as they age. With falling birth rates there are currently proportionally fewer younger working age people than older working age people. Coupled with this, pension age changes mean that more older people have become classified as ‘working age’ in recent years. The Resolution Foundation have calculated that an ageing working age population accounts for 1/5 of the rise in caseloads for health-related benefits since the pandemic.
The increases for younger people are concerning but the biggest impact on expenditure would come from tackling ill-health and disability in older age groups
For disability benefits, the growth has been highest in the older working age population, with then broadly comparable rises across other age groups. For incapacity benefits, after the 55-64 age group the second largest rise has come from 25-34 year olds. Growth in the number of young people out of work due to disability and ill health are concerning and needs attention, but if rates are going to come down, focussing on the older generation is key. Whilst we can’t fully attribute the rise to longer waiting times in the NHS, this is likely to be part of the explanation.
Some of the rise may be due to people struggling financially and needing to maximise benefit income
This rise in benefit caseloads has coincided with relatively high rates of inflation and the ‘cost of living crisis’. People struggling financially may have been more likely to make claims during this period compared to previous years when they did not feel they needed the extra income.
There is also some suggestion that people may have switched the type of claim they make for out-of-work benefits to benefit so they can receive a higher level of payment for disability and ill-health related claims. The fact that they are successful in these claims means that people are simply claiming what they are entitled to rather than somehow ‘gaming the system’.
Mental health related claims have grown, but so have claims related to other conditions
The largest absolute rise in claims for disability benefits has been related to mental health conditions, but across Great Britain, there have been rises in a range of physical conditions too (see IFS and SHERU work on this linked above). The extent to which this is due to an increased prevalence of health conditions versus an increased likelihood to claim a health-related benefit is difficult to disentangle.
There has been a rise in the in-work population reporting a disability as well and it may be that people are becoming more comfortable with disclosing mental health conditions. This could mean that people with multiple health conditions are more comfortable with citing mental health as their primary condition in benefit claims now than was previously the case.
We don’t know how much is due to long-covid or longer-term impacts of the pandemic
The extent of available data frustrates efforts to pin down the emergence of new or worsened conditions due to the pandemic and how this has changed people’s financial circumstances (for example, ability to work).
Issues with the official Labour Force Survey have limited the usefulness of the data collected there on reasons for ill health and inactivity (see SHERU blog on this issue here) and qualitative research that is able to produce more in-depth insights usually can’t be scaled up to population level.
As more longitudinal data is made available that tracks people through the period, alongside progress towards more routine data linkage of health records to other administrative data sources such as tax records, we might be able to get a better picture of the intersecting factors that have changed people’s health, benefit and work status in recent years.
What happens next?
The Spring Statement is due on the 26th March. When we know what the proposals are, we’ll be able to unpick what this will mean for people in Scotland and for Scottish Government budgets.
Whilst cuts to welfare spending may help in the short term, longer term solutions are tied up with efforts to improve both living standards and the ability of public services to support people further upstream (for example, through the NHS and employability services) which can reduce their need to recourse to the social security system.
Any decision to make cuts could come with fiscal risks. Cutting benefits for people already experiencing ill health and disability could make their conditions worse and increase demand for public services and/or lead to longer-term reliance on non-health related benefits.
A recent BBC verify article also provides a note of caution: reducing spending on the welfare bill is historically difficult and estimates of savings are often not achieved.
As well as looking at the details of the cuts, we’ll be looking at what the OBR say regarding their effectiveness of cutting UK Government spending with a keen eye.
