recovery – Page 2 – The NEN – North Edinburgh News

Glenigan forecasts weak construction output as UK economy haemorrhages

Glenigan’s autumn 2022-2024 Construction Forecast indicates poor market conditions are stifling construction activity, predicting a return to growth by 2024

Glenigan, one of the construction industry’s leading insight and intelligence experts, has released its widely anticipated autumn UK Construction Industry Forecast 2023-2024.

The key takeaway from this Forecast, which focuses on the next two years (2023-2024), is that the construction industry will struggle in the face of extremely challenging economic conditions, with predicted growth in decline during 2022 (-2%) and 2023 (-2%).

However, the sunnier uplands, although far off in the distance, are starting to emerge on the horizon, with a 6% increase predicted in 2024.

The slower road to recovery

Post-pandemic project-starts recovery has lost considerable momentum during the second half of 2022. Forecast to slip back by 2% by the end of the year, and in 2023, it paints a dim picture of activity levels in the short term.

Glenigan predicts the next 24 months to be a challenging period for the construction industry, with ongoing material, labour, and energy supply chain disruption continuing to hold back activity for the foreseeable future.

These external events have resulted in rocketing inflation, rising interest rates, and stalled economic growth, affecting the pipeline of future work. This has been further compounded by the promise of higher tax, utility bills, and rising mortgage costs which has constrained consumer-related construction, including private housing, retail, and hotel and leisure.

The situation has prompted some clients, contractors and developers to pause or scale back on planned investments, further stagnating output. This was confirmed by the value of projects securing detailed planning consent during the first nine months of 2022 dropping by 5%, and main contract awards falling by 8% against the same period in 2021.

Resurgence in private residential construction

Housing market activity cooled-off in 2022, and is predicted to slow further in 2023 as developers respond to weakening market conditions.

Project-starts are forecast to drop 4% this year, with a further 5% decline next, as lower household incomes, higher mortgage rates and lack of affordable homes continues to afflict the wider housing market.

The reduction in stamp duty rates announced in the mini-Budget will provide a small benefit to first time buyers. However, the end of the government’s Help to Buy scheme has removed direct support for new builds, coupled with mortgage providers significantly raising rates in reaction to the current rate of inflation, meaning that any benefit for first time buyers will be negated for the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, the growing prospect of a stabilising economy in 2023, prompted by a changing of the guard at Number 10, and gradually improving consumer confidence over the next two years supports a forecast of a respectable 15% rise in residential project-starts during 2024.

Social housing slips back

In the public sector, the social housing project-starts prediction is less positive, forecast to slip back during 2022 and 2023, following a rapid 16% recovery in 2021 as housing associations pressed on with schemes delayed during the pandemic.

Despite improved funding, increased construction costs appear to be significantly constraining development activity, with approvals similarly falling back over the past 12 months.

Industrial Consolidation

Industrial project-starts have enjoyed a strong rebound post-pandemic, a rise which has largely been driven by logistics and light industrial projects as significant growth areas. Looking forward, the sector faces a period of consolidation during 2023 and 2024 as the recent spurt in activity inevitably slows.

Weak domestic and overseas demand is expected to temper manufacturing investment in facilities, but warehousing and logistics premises are forecast to remain a growth area. This is due largely to a long-term shift towards online retailing, resulting in continued demand for logistics space, and accounting for the majority of industrial project-starts’ 25% growth in 2022.

Underlying Industrial Project Starts value.jpg

Retail tails-off

In the short term, however, the demand for both logistics and retail space is expected to be damped by weak retail sales as consumer confidence falls in response to higher inflation and falling earnings.

An overhang of empty retail premises, weak consumer spending, and the growth in online sales’ market share is predicted to constrain retail construction starts over the forecast period.

Despite this, investment by discount supermarkets Aldi and Lidl are set to be a bright spot within the sector over the forecast period.

Back to the office

Office starts have also bounced back sharply since 2021, increasing by 27%. The Covid-19 pandemic radically altered working trends globally as many businesses shifted to hybrid working, reducing overall floorspace requirements.

Despite this, the sector is predicted to benefit over the forecast period from a rise in refurbishment projects as tenants and landlords adapt premises to further accommodate these changing work patterns. Conversely, new build office projects are likely to be slower to recover as developers continue to assess the long-term demand for additional office accommodation.

Work, rest and delay

The squeeze on household budgets is set to curb consumers’ discretionary spending in the hospitality and leisure industries. The hospitality sector is still recovering from operational restrictions during Lockdown, as well as reduced revenues due to fewer overseas visitors.

Combined with spiking energy costs over the last 12 months, as well as a potential fall-off in domestic custom over 2023, the hospitality sector will be under considerable pressure. This is predicted to result in retrenchment, causing further delays to project-starts as asset owners wait for confidence to return.

Investment bolsters public sector

A core pillar of the Government’s UK Growth Strategy, public sector investment was set to be an important driver of construction activity over the forecast period. Funding for rail projects and regulated utilities in particular have been tipped to provide the bulk of the output over the forecast period.

However, as a new administration begins, with an ambition to balance the public finance books, planned capital funding allocation may be vulnerable, with a potential range of departmental cuts on the horizon to protect the economy against a looming recession.

Securing our energy infrastructure

Energy security will no doubt remain a national priority following the sharp rises in energy prices over the course of 2022, and an over-dependence on gas-powered electricity. This is expected to drive investment in offshore wind farms, solar PV, increasing our nuclear capacity and strengthening nascent hydrogen capture capabilities.

Building for future generations

The Government is also committed to rebuilding 500 schools over the coming decade. The latest Spending Review includes additional capital funding for the Department of Education, in a move to tackle the shortage of secondary school places. This is expected to support growth in school building projects in 2023 after a weak performance over the last year.

Healthier predictions

Positively, health sector project-starts remained high during both 2021 and 2022, with an optimistic outlook for the future as a 3.8% real-term growth rate in NHS capital funding is set to maintain project-starts at a high level over the forecast period.

Whilst starts are forecast to slip back 6% in 2023, the value of work started during 2021 and 2022 remains above pre-pandemic levels.

Commenting on the Forecast, Glenigan’s economic director Allan Wilen says, “Construction will face a challenging environment in the coming year as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to hinder the UK’s post-Covid recovery, exacerbating supply chain disruption, resulting in materials and energy shortages, and leading to cost inflation and dented market confidence.

“The pattern of UK construction activity is being reshaped by economic slowdown, but structural changes are expected to create new opportunities in warehouse & logistics, office refurbishment and new housing schemes. Going forward, it will be crucial for firms to be responsive and adaptable in order to mitigate risks in the current marketplace and exploit new opportunities as they emerge over the forecast period.”

To request a copy of Glenigan’s November 2022 Forecast click here.

To find out more about Glenigan, its expert insight and leading market analysis, click here.

Extension to Edinburgh’s LEAP recovery service

Residential rehabilitation capacity increased through Scottish Government funding

Additional residential rehabilitation and detox capacity has been created at a life-saving drugs service in Lothian with almost £3.3 million of Scottish Government funding.

Lothian and Edinburgh Abstinence Programme (LEAP) has added eight residential rehabilitation places and four detox places – bringing the total number to 28 and 12 respectively – in one of the first projects to be funded through the Residential Rehabilitation Rapid Capacity Programme.

This contributes towards the Scottish Government’s aim to treble the number of publicly funded residential rehabilitation placements to 1,000 by 2026.

Drugs Policy Minister Angela Constance said: “I am pleased to launch these additional services at LEAP which provide invaluable, life-saving care to people affected by substance use in Edinburgh and the Lothians.

“Of course, work on residential rehab is not just about creating more beds. We want to improve pathways through and out of residential rehab, and LEAP is a perfect example of good practice in this area with their three-month holistic programme of therapeutic care.

“We are investing £250 million over the course of this Parliament in a range of different treatments and services in order that all those affected, and their families, can receive the support which is right for them when they need it. £100 million of this is available for the development of residential rehabilitation services and associated aftercare.”

LEAP Clinical lead Dr David McCartney said: “We are thrilled to be launching significant developments to the LEAP residential rehabilitation service including improved access, greater capacity and more comprehensive aftercare.

“These improvements are being made possible due to investment from the Scottish Government and the Lothian Alcohol and Drug Partnerships. LEAP and our partners will see improved outcomes for our patients and their families who are struggling with addiction to substances, helping them move to recovery – something that will benefit individuals, families and communities.”

Government scheme that protected millions of jobs with £38 billion of support lent to businesses closes today

The Covid Corporate Financing Facility, which provided a quick and cost-effective way to raise working capital for large firms, comes to an end with every penny repaid.
The Bank of England facility provided almost £38 billion of support to more than 100 of the UK’s biggest firms, and made a profit for the taxpayer whilst protecting millions of jobs.
Firms that employ almost 2.5 million people were directly supported including those in the car industry, travel, hospitality, and high street stores.

The Chancellor has hailed the success of a Covid scheme that provided almost £38 billion of support to some of the UK’s biggest employers during the pandemic, protecting millions of jobs whilst making a return for the taxpayer, as it comes to an end today.

Household names, such as Gatwick Airport, the Football Association and the National Trust, were among more than 100 of the UK’s biggest employers that benefitted from the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF). The scheme has recouped every penny that was lent – plus a profit of over £60 million.

Rishi Sunak said the Bank of England administered scheme, which was launched in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, was another example of the government offering support at unprecedented speed to protect millions of jobs and taxpayer’s money simultaneously.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “We not only took unprecedented action but did so at unprecedented speed to protect jobs and businesses throughout the pandemic.

“The CCFF scheme ensured that many of the UK’s biggest employers could continue to pay wages and suppliers, protecting millions of jobs – and on top of that every penny has been repaid.”

The final CCFF repayments were made today, with all companies paying back what they owed. The scheme has made a profit of over £60 million for the taxpayer because the rate of interest applied to the cash provided by the Bank of England was priced at rates comparable to the market before Covid. Companies therefore paid back a slightly larger amount at maturity compared to the finance they borrowed initially.

Peter Vermeulen, Chief Financial Officer at the National Trust, said: “The HM Treasury team did an amazing job during the height of the pandemic. The National Trust, like many other large organisations, experienced an unprecedented liquidity squeeze, accompanied by enormous levels of uncertainty around the future.

“The CCFF was set up swiftly and in a highly transparent manner. The team at HM Treasury issued clear guidance and worked tirelessly to support us with the application and the associated legalities.

“We cannot commend the team highly enough for the excellent work they have done. It was an essential lifeline for the National Trust and has safeguarded some of the essential work we do on cultural and natural heritage, for the Nation. Thank you.”

Mark Burrows, Chief Operating Officer at The Football Association, said: “The pandemic was a serious challenge for The FA. We were faced with huge losses from cancelled events and competition disruptions affecting our broadcasting rights.

“As a not-for-profit organisation that reinvests its surplus into grassroots football, being able to rely on the security of CCFF as a quick and cost-effective way to raise working capital meant we were able not only to continue to support our business, but grassroots football across the country.”

Through the purchasing of short-term corporate debt – known as commercial paper – the CCFF provided a quick and cost-effective way to raise working capital for companies who were fundamentally strong but were at risk of experiencing severe disruption to cashflows.

Because it lent directly to large companies, the scheme also provided banks with the space to lend to a wider population of firms who could have otherwise gone bust during the pandemic.

The scheme helped companies across a range of sectors including the car industry, travel, hospitality, and high street stores. It kept cash flowing and delivered on the government’s commitment to do everything it could to support the economy and protect jobs.

Covid symptoms? See your GP!

Return to pre-pandemic procedures

Patients with COVID-19 symptoms are being asked to contact their GP instead of NHS 24 from the end of March.

The move comes after a fall in the number of people using the service since the end of December and represents a return to pre-pandemic procedures.

Currently callers to the 111 helpline are assessed and, if necessary, transferred to a local community hub staffed by clinicians from across the healthcare system.

From 31 March patients will be asked to contact their GP in the first instance during the working day, as they already do for other respiratory conditions. If help and advice is required out of hours, 111 should still be called. NHS Inform’s coronavirus webpage remains the fastest way for people to obtain the latest health advice and information.

Several boards have continued using GP practices as the first port of call for Covid-related calls during the pandemic, including Dumfries and Galloway and Tayside. It is now considered appropriate to return to this approach nationwide.

Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “This move represents another welcome step back towards normality.

“Call numbers and the number of serious cases are falling and the tailored arrangements put in place at the height of the pandemic are no longer required. But we remain on alert and should a more serious variant of the virus emerge the service can, and will, be swiftly restored.

“We are continuing to support GP practices as they manage acute COVID cases. The GP Escalation Framework remains in place to help health boards and practices deal with sustainability issues and we will invest £15 million this year in sustainability payments”.

NHS 24’s Director of Service Delivery, Steph Phillips said: “NHS 24 staff have provided an excellent service to the people of Scotland throughout the pandemic, both over the phone and online.

“We will continue to update the information and symptom checker on NHS inform and encourage people to use this resource.”

‘Welcome step back to normality’? Covid’s far from over – 11,685 new cases were reported in Scotland yesterday – with 19 deaths.

Crisis: Scottish Government asleep at the wheel on crisis in NHS dentistry

The British Dental Association Scotland has greeted the unanimous support of opposition parties, while accusing the Scottish Government of failing to take needed action to halt an exodus from NHS dentistry and restore access to millions.

In a debate in Holyrood today Scottish Government MSPs voted against a motion on support for NHS dentistry tabled by the Scottish Conservatives and backed by both Scottish Labour and Liberal Democrats.

Ministers have been planning to cut pandemic support from April. While the Government has recently indicated that there will be no “cliff edge”, the BDA has consistently warned that the plans to end Covid support payments and return to a low margin/high volume model of care would devastate dental services across the country.

Morale in the profession is at an all-time low, with more than a third of dentists saying they intend to leave the profession in the next 12 months, and 80% planning to reduce their NHS commitment if the Government reverts to pre-pandemic arrangements. Failure to act risks sparking an exodus from the workforce which would mean families across Scotland losing access to NHS dentistry for good.

Over 3.5 million NHS dental appointments were lost in Scotland as a result of the pandemic. As infection prevention and control measures continue to limit the number of patients dentists can see, this unprecedented backlog continues to grow and will likely take years to clear.

The BDA has warned the SNP’s 2021 election pledge of free NHS dentistry for all will be unrealisable without meaningful support and real reform. It is pressing for a workable interim funding model, and long-term change to a system that prioritises prevention, is patient-centred and reflects modern dentistry.

David McColl, Chair of the British Dental Association’s Scottish Dental Practice Committee said: “NHS dentistry in Scotland is facing crisis, but sadly Ministers seem asleep at the wheel.

“Opposition parties are all seeing the plain facts that Scottish Government plans could devastate services millions depend on and widen already unacceptable health inequalities.

“Promises have been made to the voting public that simply that can’t be kept unless we see meaningful support and real reform as we head out of the pandemic.”

Schools: Face coverings in classrooms can be removed after the holidays

It’s too soon, says EIS

High school pupils and staff will not be required to wear face coverings in classrooms from 28 February, after the schools mid-term break.

Teachers and pupils who wish to continue to wear a face covering in the classroom should be fully supported in doing so.

Face coverings will still be required in communal areas, subject to future review.

Specific mitigations relating to assemblies and transition visits for learners who will start primary or secondary in August 2022, will also be eased as of 28 February.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “In recent weeks I have promised to keep Parliament and school communities updated on mitigations within schools – including the use of face coverings within classrooms.

“I have been clear that we do not want to keep these measures in place for any longer than is necessary, but that we must continue to be led by scientific and expert advice.

“On Tuesday our Advisory Subgroup on Education and Children’s Issues met to discuss a number of issues, including the use of face coverings.

“The group reiterated its previous position that the removal of mitigations in schools should follow a phased approach. It also advised that the next phase could begin after the February half-term break, with the removal of face-coverings in classrooms – for both pupils and staff – on 28 February.

“In arriving at their decision, the Advisory Sub-Group pointed to reducing case rates for secondary-aged pupils, falling hospitalisation rates across all age categories, and the fact that the estimated R rate is below 1 and decreasing. In addition, vaccination rates for young people continue to increase.

“This change represents a further step in allowing our children and young people to return to a more normal school experience after many months of sacrifice.

“We currently expect that face coverings will still be worn outside the classroom, in indoor communal areas of schools, after 28 February. This will be kept under regular review. In addition, anyone who wants to continue wearing a face covering in classrooms will, of course, be supported to do so.”

Commenting following the First Minister’s statement in the Scottish Parliament, EIS General Secretary Larry Flanagan said: “The majority of EIS members supported the retention of face coverings until we were through the winter period so we would have preferred the end of March rather than the end of February for this change to happen.

“Having said that, it is important that both pupils and staff have the right to continue to wear face coverings if they wish and, in some cases, where there is a heightened vulnerability in play, face coverings may still be required.

“There has been a slight drop in infection levels within schools but they remain high – over 4,000 staff are off school for Covid related reasons and more than 20,000 pupils. Enforcing the remaining mitigations, therefore, around ventilation and face coverings in communal areas, remains critical to school safety.”

Coronavirus (COVID-19): guidance on reducing the risks in schools will be updated next week.

Back To Work: Scottish Government announces changes to working from home advice

Businesses can prepare to resume hybrid working from next Monday (31st January), enabling more people to have a flexible return to working between home and the office.

Due to the continued decline in Covid case rates and the progressing easing of protective measures, businesses can implement a return that offers staff more flexibility while ensuring steps are taken to mitigate the potential spread of Covid.

Eligible businesses in the hospitality, leisure, culture and tourism sectors that were impacted by the necessary public health measures introduced to stop the spread of Omicron are now receiving grant payments.

The Scottish Government is working ‘at pace’ with local authorities and other delivery partners to ensure business support funding is paid to all eligible businesses as quickly as possible.

Economy Secretary Kate Forbes said: “I want to thank businesses and their staff for the continued understanding and willingness to work with the Scottish Government and local partners to respond to the changing challenges we have faced as a result of this pandemic, including responding quickly to the necessary public health measures introduced to stop the spread of Omicron in December.

“Thanks to our collective efforts to stop Omicron spreading, case rates are slowing and so it is possible to resume a measured and proportionate return to hybrid working. This will be welcome news for many thanks to the significant benefits to businesses, to staff and to the wider economy however we must remain cautious.

“We know how quickly Covid can spread and so this must be a phased and flexible return to hybrid working, with employers and employees working together, including with their trade unions where appropriate, to decide the most effective balance of home, flexible and hybrid working.

“The Scottish Government is firmly focused on doing all we can to support businesses and grow our economy. As well as the £375 million business support package, businesses in Scotland continue to benefit from our non-domestic rates relief package which is worth a forecast £802 million in 2022-23.”

The announcement was made during the First Minister’s coronavirus update yesterday:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-ministers-statement-25-january-2022/

All businesses and workplaces should follow the principles set out in the safer workplace guidance, and carry out regular risk-assessments. This replaces much of the previous sector specific guidance.

Businesses should also follow advice on ensuring good ventilation in their premises.

MHRA approves Xevudy (sotrovimab), a COVID-19 treatment found to cut deaths and hospitalisation by 79%

This monoclonal antibody – the second to be authorised by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency – is for people with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of developing severe disease.

Another COVID-19 treatment, Xevudy (sotrovimab), has today been approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to be safe and effective at reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death in people with mild to moderate COVID-19 infection who are at an increased risk of developing severe disease.

This follows a rigorous review of its safety, quality and effectiveness by the UK regulator and the government’s independent expert scientific advisory body, the Commission on Human Medicines, making it the second monoclonal antibody therapeutic to be approved following Ronapreve.

Developed by GSK and Vir Biotechnology, sotrovimab is a single monoclonal antibody. The drug works by binding to the spike protein on the outside of the COVID-19 virus. This in turn prevents the virus from attaching to and entering human cells, so that it cannot replicate in the body.

In a clinical trial, a single dose of the monoclonal antibody was found to reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death by 79% in high-risk adults with symptomatic COVID-19 infection.

Based on the clinical trial data, sotrovimab is most effective when taken during the early stages of infection and so the MHRA recommends its use as soon as possible and within five days of symptom onset.

Like molnupiravir, it has been authorised for use in people who have mild to moderate COVID-19 infection and at least one risk factor for developing severe illness. Such risk factors include obesity, older age (>60 years), diabetes mellitus, or heart disease.

Unlike molnupiravir, sotrovimab is administered by intravenous infusion over 30 minutes. It is approved for individuals aged 12 and above who weigh more than 40kg.

It is too early to know whether the omicron variant has any impact on sotrovimab’s effectiveness but the MHRA will work with the company to establish this.

Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive said: “I am pleased to say that we now have another safe and effective COVID-19 treatment, Xevudy (sotrovimab), for those at risk of developing severe illness.

“This is yet another therapeutic that has been shown to be effective at protecting those most vulnerable to COVID-19, and signals another significant step forward in our fight against this devastating disease.

“With no compromises on quality, safety and effectiveness, the public can trust that the MHRA have conducted a robust and thorough assessment of all the available data.”

Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines, said: “The Commission on Human Medicines and its COVID-19 Therapeutics Expert Working Group has independently reviewed the data and agrees with the MHRA’s regulatory approval of Xevudy (sotrovimab).

“When administered in the early stages of infection, sotrovimab was found to be effective at reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death in high-risk individuals with symptomatic COVID-19. Based on the data reviewed by the Commission and its expert group, it is clear sotrovimab is another safe and effective treatment to help us in our fight against COVID-19.”

Sotrovimab is not intended to be used as a substitute for vaccination against COVID-19.

The government and the NHS will confirm how this COVID-19 treatment will be deployed to patients in due course.

Support targeted at most vulnerable as Scotland recovers from Storm Arwen

Deputy First Minister John Swinney has chaired a meeting of the Scottish Government’s Resilience Room (SGoRR) on the continuing impacts of Storm Arwen and has been briefed that the recovery is going to be greater and more challenging than first anticipated.

Last night’s update focused on the scale and severity of the adverse weather which will see a number of homes across the country remain without power overnight and continuing telecommunication and water issues.

Significant efforts are ongoing to restore power as soon as possible and welfare support is being concentrated on the people and households who are most vulnerable and have the greatest need.

Mr Swinney said: “The scale of the damage caused by Storm Arwen is worse than we first feared and as a result our recovery will take longer than anticipated.

“We know this will create significant challenges for communities and households still affected by the storm’s impacts and I want to reassure them we are doing everything we can, liaising with local resilience partnerships, to focus efforts and resources.

“We have been working closely and at pace with power companies who are maximising efforts to restore services to households currently without power.

“Plans are being put in place for further assistance to respond to the longer than expected recovery and we are concentrating getting power restored for vulnerable people and those who need it most.

“In extremely challenging circumstances we have seen an outstanding response from local resilience partnerships who have been providing vital support to local residents and I would like to thank them for their continuing efforts.”

Alex Cole-Hamilton: Getting serious about long Covid

Almost 100,000 people in Scotland have reported that they’re suffering with long Covid but it has taken until today (Tuesday 9 November) for the Scottish Parliament to debate this important issue.

I led this debate in Parliament yesterday because no matter how much campaigners and MSPs raise the issue, the SNP Health Secretary is just not listening.

It is shameful that it has taken an opposition party debate for the plight of long Covid sufferers to be heard in Parliament.

The SNP/Green Government’s action plan on long Covid is totally unfit for the scale of this challenge. Many Scots would be better off moving to England where there are well-established clinics and a care pathway.

We need to do much more to help long Covid sufferers. That is why I am calling on the SNP/Green Government to:

Have specialist long Covid clinics in every health board
Train more long Covid community nurses to offer in-home support
Give everyone who needs it access to physiotherapy and rehab treatment
Make sure long Covid sufferers are not penalised financially because they are absent from work for longer periods

You can join me in calling for action from the Scottish Government by signing up to my plan for long Covid here: