Tag: prospects

Scottish business confidence falls but remains in positive territory

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for December 2022 shows:  

  • Business confidence in Scotland fell nine points during December to 15%
  • Scottish businesses identify top growth opportunities as evolving their offer (36%), investing in their teams (31%) and entering new markets (25%)
  • Overall UK business confidence rose seven points during the last month to 17%, with eight out of 11 nations and regions reporting a higher reading than November


Business confidence in Scotland fell nine points during December to 15%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down five points at 25%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, down 10 points to 6% this gives a headline confidence reading of 15%. 

Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as evolving their offer (36%), investing in their teams (31%) and entering new markets (25%).

The Business Barometer, which surveys 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

A net balance of 11% of businesses in the region expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up three points on last month.

Overall UK business confidence rose seven points during December to 17%. The proportion of businesses that felt positive about the wider economy was up 10 points month-on-month to 8%, while their outlook on their own future trading prospects increased by two points to 27%. Businesses also remained optimistic about job creation, with 16% of firms planning to hire more staff in the next 12 months – up two points on November.

All UK regions and nations reported a positive confidence reading in December, for the first time since July, with eight out of 11 recording a month-on-month increase in confidence. Of those, the North West (up 31 points to 40%), North East (up 24 points to 34%) and South East (up 23 points to 14%) saw the largest monthly increases, with the North West now the most optimistic overall.

Chris Lawrie, area director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Although business confidence has dipped it’s encouraging to see it remain in positive territory, which is testament to the resilience of the business community here in Scotland.

“After a turbulent few months many companies are now looking at shoring up their investment plans for the year ahead. Those planning to invest in their teams and export into new markets will do well to keep a close eye on cash flow to ensure they’re ready to capitalise on opportunities as they arise.”

The manufacturing sector reversed a six-month trend of falling confidence, with a nine-point rise to 13%. Confidence in construction and services also increased by nine points to 29% and 18% respectively. However, retail confidence fell slightly, by two points to 13%.  

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It’s encouraging to see the confidence of most regions and nations rallying as we end the year. This has been a tough time for businesses with rising costs and much uncertainty, but some firms are becoming more confident as we head in to 2023. 

“While wage expectations start to temper, prices continue to rise and keeping a close watch on cash flow remains a priority for businesses, no matter what industry you operate in. For those who are in need of support or are looking for advice, especially into the festive season and new year, at Lloyds Bank we are by your side in times of uncertainty.”

Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence has received a boost in the run up to Christmas as firms anticipate a better festive trading period than last year.

“While firms report being hopeful for a more successful 2023, inflation and the risk of an economic downturn remain the biggest concerns for businesses, with rising costs evidenced by the number of firms expecting to raise prices.

“Wage growth is expected to remain high for now as retaining existing staff and attracting new talent will continue to be priorities for many businesses going into next year.”

Lockdown Lowdown: Job satisfaction soars amongst young Scots – but two fifths worry about future prospects

A new study examining the impact of lockdowns on Scotland’s young people has revealed that over two-thirds (67%) feel positive about their current employment situation as lockdown eases, but only two-fifths of Scottish students are confident about securing future employment. 

Commissioned by the Scottish Government and delivered by the Scottish Youth Parliament, YouthLink Scotland and Young Scot, the study of nearly 2,500 young people serves as a follow-up to previous surveys that explored young people’s concerns in response to the pandemic.

The latest LockdownLowdown research examines the lasting impact of lockdowns and comes as many young people return to in-person education and work as lockdown restrictions ease.

The results revealed that job satisfaction among young people has risen since last year, with 67% of young people feeling good about their current job situation – a 12% increase from the previous LockdownLowdown report in the winter.

However, positive sentiment waned when young people were asked about their confidence in finding a job in the future – with 2 in 5 (37%) of those currently in higher education concerned about securing graduate employment.

In general, employment and finances were leading worries among young people, with more than a third (36%) admitting that their work hours had been cut, while a fifth (22%) were placed on furlough, and 18% lost their job entirely. This comes when over a third (36%) don’t know where to access information on financial support.

The Lockdown Lowdown survey identified mental health as a further concern among young people, with over a third (35%) worried about their mental wellbeing and two fifths (40%) not confident about accessing information on mental health and wellbeing.

Following the reopening of schools and learning environments, over three quarters (76%) of young people have returned to in-person education – with 85% happy to be back. However, nearly half of respondents (44%) felt unprepared in the run-up to this year’s assessments, and only 2 in 5 (38%) were confident that the grades determined by their teachers would be delivered fairly.

Nearly 2,500 young people from across Scotland took part in the research that will be used by the Scottish Government and shared with stakeholders, including the NHS and local authorities.

Josh Kennedy MSYP, Chair of the Scottish Youth Parliament, said:“Meaningfully engaging with the views of young people is the only way to ensure that decisions are made with their views and needs at the centre.

“The latest LockdownLowdown report makes it very easy for decision-makers to find out what young people think about restrictions easing. Young people have had an incredibly challenging time over the last year and a half.

“I would encourage every decision-maker in Scotland to look at the views presented in this report and consider them when making decisions about how Scotland comes out of the Pandemic.”

Tim Frew, CEO of YouthLink Scotland, said: “As we strive to return our lives to normal after this really challenging period, it’s vital that government and other decision makers know where young people are at, and their thinking on the pandemic.

“In this latest survey there are very clear messages from young people around anxiety about future employment prospects, mental health remains a significant concern and there are clearly issues about the impact lockdown has had on assessments and results.

“As we continue to come through the pandemic, the voices of young people need to be listened to as we shape the way forward. The findings also show the importance of youth work to many young people, and demonstrates the incredible support youth workers have continued to offer in extremely difficult circumstances.”

Kirsten Urquhart, Interim CEO of Young Scot said: “Given the immense challenges young people have faced throughout the pandemic, it’s no surprise to see rising concern over future employment.

“While a surge in job satisfaction is cause for cautious optimism – we want to reassure young people that Young Scot is here to support every young person with their next steps as we begin to recover from the pandemic.”

Lost in Transition?

Research shows people with vision impairment lack support to gain quality education and employment

A study just published by the Vision Impairment Centre for Teaching and Research (VICTAR) at the University of Birmingham and Thomas Pocklington Trust (TPT) shows one in five people with vision impairment did not gain quality employment despite earning qualifications in line with the general population.

The study tracked 80 participants from England over a period of 11 years (from age 14 to 25) to improve understanding on why this population is vulnerable to becoming long term NEET (not in education, employment or training).

Many of the young people spoke positively about their experiences in school and achieved average or above average GCSE qualifications. But then faced a range of barriers when entering Further Education, Higher Education and ultimately the employment market.

Rachel Hewett, Birmingham Fellow at the Vision Impairment Centre for Teaching and Research School of Education, University of Birmingham said: “The research identified key challenges once the young people transitioned into Further Education (FE). Many young people found adjustments were not put in place in time and they had a lack of access to specialist support.

“Careers guidance often focused on keeping the young person in education, with limited support for transitioning into employment. This led to some of the participants ‘churning’ in the system.”

Many barriers were observed once the participants moved into Higher Education, such as an inaccessible application process for UCAS and Disabled Students’ Allowance (DSA), and inaccessible virtual learning environments and a failure from institutions to make reasonable adjustments.

This led to some of the cohort withdrawing from their courses, repeating modules or entire academic years, or leaving with a degree classification which they feel did not reflect their ability.

Several of the participants wished to pursue apprenticeships but were unable to identify suitable opportunities or access specialist support to help them consider alternative options.

Tara Chattaway, Head of Education at TPT said: “It is evident that young people with vision impairment are not getting the support at transition periods in their lives. The lack of support, accessibility and inclusion can impact on the quality of education the young person receives and on then on their employment opportunities.

“We are calling on Government to bridge this gap and to ensure that the Skills and Post-16 Education Bill and their response to the impending SEND review truly supports the aspirations and learning needs of vision impaired students.”

At the end of the study 66% of the remaining participants were in some form of employment, 17% remained NEET, including seven young people who by the age of 25 had never experienced paid employment. Of particular concern is the lack of support available to help young people with vision impairment access employment once they become NEET, with several of the young people being actively discouraged by Jobcentre Plus staff to search for employment, in favour of long-term benefits.

The research did identify factors that drive positive outcomes for young people with vision impairment. They include:

  • Self-advocacy skills and a good understanding of their vision impairment and the adjustments they require.
  • A well developed and broad range of skills for accessing information.
  • Mobility and orientation skills, including skills for getting around in unfamiliar environments.

Tara added: “At TPT we understand the importance vision impaired students having the right access to materials, assistive technology and independence skills in order to thrive in education and to transition into employment. More must be done.”

Edinburgh Poverty Commission: ‘Prospects’ – Phase II call for evidence

The Edinburgh Poverty Commission is working throughout this year to define the steps the city needs to make to reduce, mitigate, and prevent poverty in Edinburgh. Continue reading Edinburgh Poverty Commission: ‘Prospects’ – Phase II call for evidence