As Omicron continues to spread, the Scottish Government is setting out new guidance and measures to take effect from midnight on Friday to stem the flow of transmission, keep businesses and services open, and protect against pressure on health services.
Evidence shows that the new, highly transmissible Omicron strain of COVID-19 can infect those who have been vaccinated, or previously infected, so it is considered necessary to reintroduce some protections to prevent hospital admissions.
Guidance has been updated on reducing social interaction at home or in indoor public places to a maximum of three households at any time, with everyone encouraged to take a lateral flow test before meeting.
This will also be reflected in updated guidance for visiting care homes – with no more than two households to visit a resident at a time – and in hospitals, with no more than two visitors at any time. In all settings, people should take a lateral flow test before meeting, to support people to continue to connect with their loved ones.
Additional funding of £100 million to ensure the Self-Isolation Support Grant is available to those who need it, and a £100 million financial package for eligible businesses is to be made available.
Business support funding has been allocated to enhance adherence to the necessary public health measures and support businesses in hospitality ,and food supply and in the culture sector that have lost crucial bookings during this key trading period.
The Finance Secretary will be engaging with affected sectors immediately to consult on and confirm the details of support and money will be available as soon as possible.
The COVID-19 booster programme continues to accelerate, with the online portal for 18-29 year-olds opening on Wednesday 15 December and the waiting period following vaccination reduced from 15 minutes to five minutes. COVID-19 booster jabs will be prioritised over the remainder of the flu vaccination programme to speed up vaccination times and enable more appointments.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “Getting fully vaccinated is the best thing any of us can do to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and the country. So please, book your booster jag as soon as possible. Speeding up vaccination is essential and I want to assure the nation that it is the government’s top priority.
“While we are speeding up vaccination, we must also try to slow down Omicron. That is why we are also proposing today, albeit reluctantly, some further protective measures. I am appealing to everyone to follow today’s advice, to help slow Omicron down while more of us get our boosters.
“I am not asking anyone to ‘cancel’ Christmas – but in the run up to and in the immediate aftermath of Christmas, I am asking everyone to reduce as far as possible, and to a minimum, the contacts we have with people in other households.
“We are not banning or restricting household mixing in law as before – we understand the negative impact this has on mental health and wellbeing – but we are asking everyone, and we will issue strong guidance to this effect, to cut down as far as possible the number of people outside our own households that we are interacting with just now. This will help break transmission chains.
“Turning to Christmas Day specifically – or Christmas Eve or Boxing Day or whenever you have your main family celebration – we are not asking you to cancel or change your plans, and we are not proposing limits on the size of household gatherings. Places of worship will also remain open, with appropriate mitigations. But we will issue guidance to help you make Christmas safer.
“Omicron will be especially concerning to people on the Highest Risk List – the Chief Medical Officer will be writing to all of you shortly with further advice and assurance.”
Further guidance on additional measures announced by the First Minister will be published by the end of the week. These include:
Businesses, service providers and places of worship asked to take all reasonable measures to avoid crowding, encourage wearing of masks and support distancing in their premises
This will include guidance to ensure that people who can work from home, do so – for those in sectors where working from home is not possible, regular testing with lateral flow tests should be undertaken
Reinforcement of protective measures in retail and other settings including distancing, managing customer flows, and protective screens
Reinforcement of protective measures in hospitality settings including collection of contact tracing information and measures to reduce crowding
Guidance to increase mask wearing in outdoor crowded areas such as Christmas markets or festive celebrations
The Scottish Government’s strong recommendation continues to be that everyone should take a lateral flow test beforehand, on any occasion that you will be meeting another household, as an important way we can all reduce the risk of unknowingly spreading the virus to other people.
It remains vitally important to strictly adhere to all public health advice, being stringent around use of face coverings in all required settings, isolating for the full period when advised to, and ensuring good ventilation in spaces where households will mix.
Online portal extended and changes to flu delivery
A range of measures are being introduced to speed up the COVID-19 booster programme, and give protection against the spreading Omicron variant.
The online booking portal will be open to everyone aged 18-29 from 10am this morning, allowing this age group to book booster appointments through the NHS Inform website.
Appointments are being added to the online portal daily and COVID-19 vaccination capacity is being increased over the festive period.
In order to increase the number of appointments, there will also be a prioritisation of booster vaccines over the remainder of the flu programme. This means anyone who is under the age of 65, or not in one of the high risk groups, will receive their COVID-19 booster only. This group will instead be able to get their flu vaccine in the New Year.
In line with advice from the four UK Chief Medical Officers, and in order to improve the flow of people through vaccination centres, people will no longer have to wait 15 minutes after receiving an MRNA vaccine. Instead, in Scotland the programme clinical governance group has recommended there is an observation period of five minutes, reflecting guidance from the Resuscitation Council.
Also, all NHS board areas are working to increase the availability of drop-in clinics – with a particular focus on the over 40s – and to identify larger sites that can be brought online in the coming weeks.
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “The most important thing we can all do to protect ourselves and others from COVID-19 is to get our vaccinations and boosters when eligible. The vaccines we have are highly effective and safe and I urge anyone who is eligible and not yet vaccinated to book an appointment.
“There is a massive national effort underway to ensure that all adults will be able to book a booster appointment before the end of the year. The steps announced by the First Minister today – which are proportionate and based on clinical advice – will help us towards that goal.
“Scotland already has the highest vaccination rate of all UK nations for first, second and third doses and we continue to follow clinical advice from the JCVI on offering booster jags through age cohorts in descending order to ensure maximum benefit.
“Demand for boosters may mean you may have to wait in a queue at drop-in centres but we urge everyone to be patient. We have plenty of supplies and are working with Health Boards to maximise vaccination capacity as quickly and safely as we possibly can.
“The emergence of the Omicron variant means it is also particularly important that we continue to take all precautions to prevent transmission. So test regularly for the virus, particularly before socialising and meeting up with others from outside your household, wear face marks where required and open windows to improve ventilation.”
To use the online portal, individuals will need their unique vaccination username which can be found on any previous appointment letter.
Additional funding from the UK reserve will be made available to the governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to progress their vaccine rollout and wider health response, the UK Government has confirmed today.
While the devolved administrations are well-funded to continue their response to Covid-19, and have their own reserves and contingency funds, any additional in-year Barnett funding will not be confirmed until early 2022 through the Supplementary Estimates process.
HM Treasury has therefore announced that additional funding will be made available to the devolved administrations to provide greater certainty and allow them to plan as they tackle Covid-19 during the crucial weeks ahead.
HM Treasury will set this amount of additional funding in the coming days and will keep it under review in the following weeks.
The UK Government has already provided the devolved administrations with an extra £12.6 billion through the Barnett formula this year – this includes £1.3 billion confirmed at the recent Autumn Budget and takes their total funding this year to £77.6 billion.
This is on top of UK Government spending on vaccines and tests for the whole of the UK and UK-wide support for businesses and jobs.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said:“Throughout this pandemic, the United Kingdom has stood together as one family, and we will continue to do so.
“We are working with the governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to drive the vaccine rollout to all corners of the United Kingdom and ensure people and businesses all across the country are supported.”
If the amount of funding provided up front to each devolved administration is more than the Barnett consequentials confirmed at Supplementary Estimates then any extra amount will be repaid in 2022-23, or over the Spending Review period if necessary.
If the Barnett consequentials are higher than the amount provided up front the devolved administrations will keep the extra funding.
The news was released as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was updating MSPs on the latest coronavirus restrictions.
We are sorry to say, we will cancel any face-to-face groups until further notice after the latest Scottish Guidelines ask us to avoid unnecessary contact with other people, especially in crowded places.
While many of our groups are held outdoors, we don’t want to create a situation where we need to tell everyone to isolate for 10 days, due to being a close contact of a person from a group who has tested positive, and thus leave them having to isolate over Christmas.
We want to do everything to avoid that and allow people to see their family and loved ones this Christmas.
Chat Cafe – moved to online
Raising Children With Confidence – online
Baby Massage – online
Garden Cooking Club – postoponed until further notice in January
Community Lunch – postponed until further notice in January
Play Together Outdoor Adventures – postponed
Women’s Winter Wellbeing – continues online
Bookbug – postponed until further notice in January
Following advice from the UK Health Security Agency and in the light of the rapid increase in Omicron cases, the UK Chief Medical Officers and NHS England National Medical Director have recommended to ministers that the UK COVID-19 alert level should increase from Level 3 to Level 4.
Transmission of COVID-19 is already high in the community, mainly still driven by Delta, but the emergence of Omicron adds additional and rapidly increasing risk to the public and healthcare services.
Early evidence shows that Omicron is spreading much faster than Delta and that vaccine protection against symptomatic disease from Omicron is reduced. Data on severity will become clearer over the coming weeks but hospitalisations from Omicron are already occurring and these are likely to increase rapidly.
When vaccine protection is reduced in the way that is happening with Omicron it is essential to top up that protection with a booster. Both booster vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) increase the immune response substantially and show good effectiveness although with some reduction compared to Delta.
The NHS is currently under pressure mainly driven by non-COVID-19 pressures. With a variant spreading with increased transmissibility and reduced vaccine effectiveness, we are likely to see this pressure rise soon.
It is extremely important that if you are eligible, you get your COVID-19 vaccination now – whether this be your first, second or booster dose.
People should continue take sensible precautions including ventilating rooms, using face coverings, testing regularly and isolating when symptomatic.
Chief Medical Officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty
Chief Medical Officer for Northern Ireland, Professor Sir Michael McBride
Chief Medical Officer for Scotland, Professor Gregor Smith
Chief Medical Officer for Wales, Dr Frank Atherton
NHS England National Medical Director, Professor Stephen Powis
Prime Minister and NHS turbocharge booster programme against Omicron and launch an urgent national appeal calling for people to get jabbed
Latest data shows booster is needed to protect ourselves and the NHS against the variant
Prime Minister: “A tidal wave of Omicron is coming. Get Boosted Now.”
UK Chief Medical Officers raise UK Covid Alert Level from Level 3 to Level 4
All adults in England to be offered a booster jab by the end of the year. Devolved administrations also agree to accelerate vaccinations.
The Prime Minister, together with the NHS, last night launched an urgent national appeal calling for people to get jabbed, as he outlined plans to significantly increase NHS vaccination capacity.
It comes as the UK Chief Medical Officers increased the UK Covid Alert Level from Level 3 to Level 4 due to a rapid increase in cases of the Omicron variant.
The latest data suggests Omicron is extremely transmissible and will become the dominant variant by mid-December. Cases are now doubling every 2 to 3 days.
Data published on Friday suggests that vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is substantially reduced against Omicron with just two doses, but a third dose boosts protection back up to over 70%.
It is too early to draw firm conclusions about whether the Omicron variant is as virulent as Delta but even if it is more mild, a slight fall in vaccine efficacy can lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisations. Hospitalisations in South Africa have doubled in a week and are expected to rise in the UK over the next 2 weeks.
The extent of transmissibility, coupled with reduced protection after two doses and the raising of the alert level by the UK CMOs, means the Prime Minister and NHS England are today launching an urgent national Omicron appeal for the public to Get Boosted Now.
The government and NHS will rise to the challenge, working flat out to deliver jabs, save lives and ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed this winter with an influx of Omicron cases.
The vaccination programme is already delivering hundreds of thousands of boosters every day, with over 530,000 jabs in arms on Saturday alone, while catching up on elective surgeries and appointments and delivering all urgent care.
All adults will now be offered a booster jab by the New Year, bringing the target forward by one month.
Bookings through the National Booking System will be prioritised at most sites unless it is a pop up or walk-in only site. The National Booking System will now be stood up for over 18s and will take a short time to operationalise. From tomorrow adults over 30 will be able to book online, and all over 18s from Wednesday.
Some walk-in appointments will be available from tomorrow for over 18s, dependent on location. If there are long queues or all slots have been booked, people are encouraged to be patient and keep trying, or book online.
To deliver the ramped-up vaccination programme, NHS staff will need to be redeployed away from non-urgent services. This means that all primary care services will now focus on urgent clinical need and vaccines, and some non-urgent appointments and elective surgeries may be postponed until the New Year while every adult in the country is jabbed.
Without the added protection from this third dose, NHS beds will quickly fill up and the long term damage to the economy and the NHS efforts to bring down the backlog will be even greater.
The NHS will be given everything it needs to get jabs in arms as the UK responds to the Omicron variant.
The Prime Minister yesterday set out that the NHS will be given everything it needs to boost jabbing capacity, which will include:
New vaccination sites set up across the country, including mobile pop up sites
Increasing opening times for vaccination sites, to 7 days a week with more appointments early in the morning, in the evening and at weekends
50 military planning experts will help coordinate the national effort by supporting the NHS with logistics of the rollout
Reprioritising the NHS workforce to deliver as many jabs as possible
A national call for thousands more NHS volunteers
If Omicron is left unchecked the NHS is at risk of being quickly overwhelmed. Last week the Prime Minister confirmed the move to Plan B for England following its rapid spread.
Face coverings are now compulsory in most public indoor venues in England – this is already in place in Scotland – people are asked to work from home if they can from today, and from Wednesday 15 December negative lateral flow tests will be needed to enter nightclubs and large events, except for those who are double vaccinated and subject to approval from Parliament.
Every adult in the country is now being urged to book their jab as soon as possible. The vaccination programme is open to everyone, and first and second doses remain available.
The government will continue to work closely with the devolved administrations on the booster rollout, and there will be Barnett consequentials for any new funding.
Support available to ensure care workers can get vaccines and boosters
Care home staff and those working in social care are being urged to get the booster vaccine in the fight against the spread of Omicron variant.
Scottish Government financial support is available for adult care providers who incur additional costs if employees are vaccinated in working time – so staff can do so without losing earnings or having to take annual leave.
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf thanked staff for their efforts but said the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 made it more important than ever that care workers get their COVID-19 booster vaccinations, test themselves regularly and maintain infection prevention measures.
Rates of uptake of the booster vaccine are currently lower among social care staff, with 47.7% of frontline social care workers and 54.8% of care home staff having had their booster, than they are in other sectors such as frontline healthcare workers (72%).
Mr Yousaf said: “I want to thank everyone working in social care who has taken up the offer of vaccination, and has had a booster jag. But I want to encourage every single social care worker to get themselves vaccinated.
“Even if you’ve been double-vaccinated, we know your immunity against COVID-19 wanes over time. Getting your booster is even more important with the emergence of the Omicron variant. Please do so as soon as possible.
“I’m very grateful to all our social care workers for their continued resilience and ongoing commitment during what I know continues to be a very difficult time. I know staff are likely to be feeling particularly fatigued after more than 20 months of the pandemic and I want to thank you all for supporting each other and working together as we continue to navigate through this.
“However we know that the rate of take up among those working in care homes and social care is not as high as in other sectors. It is crucial, especially for those working with some of our most vulnerable citizens, that you get your booster if you have not already done so.
“Getting vaccinated is vital in protecting you, those you care for, and your friends and family.”
Danger of Omicron ‘running riot’ – but Nicola Sturgeon backs away from tighter restrictions
Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House this afternoon:
Good afternoon everyone, thanks for joining us. As you can see I’m joined today by the Chief Medical Officer and the National Clinical Director.
Throughout this pandemic – and particularly at key stages of it- I’ve tried, we’ve tried, to be open and upfront with you about the challenges and the uncertainties confronting us, so that you can better understand – if not always agree with, I accept – the difficult judgments and decisions that we have had to make.
I’m afraid that this is another moment when such frankness is really important.
The purpose of today’s update is to level with you on what we know so far about spread in Scotland of the new Omicron variant – and also our estimate at this stage of what we are likely to face in the days and weeks to come.
The fact is that we do face a renewed and a very severe challenge in the shape of the Omicron variant.
To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing – indeed we may be starting to experience – a potential tsunami of infections.
Now we’re not alone in that, far from it – everything I am about to share with you about the situation in Scotland is, I believe, broadly reflected in the data for the rest of the UK too. And although I’m not familiar with the data elsewhere, I would suspect it is reflected there too.
However, we have just published an evidence paper which seeks to provide you with more detail about the Omicron variant here in Scotland at this stage, and you can find that evidence paper online on the Scottish Government website or Twitter feed.
Now I’m going to come back to more detail in that and to tell you what we do know about and what we expect from Omicron and I’ll do that shortly.
Firstly, though, as I usually do, I’m just going to briefly summarise today’s statistics.
5,018 positive cases were reported yesterday – which is 9.3% of all tests carried out.
Now, this is one day’s figures – but as you can see it is a sharp rise on the average of around 2,800 per day that we have been reporting recently, and it underlines our fear that a new wave may indeed be starting.
573 people are currently in hospital with Covid – that’s 5 fewer than yesterday.
And 40 people are in intensive care, 1 more than yesterday. Although I would remind you that there is always a time lag between rising cases and rising numbers of people in hospital and intensive care.
And sadly, a further 19 deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, and that takes the total number of deaths under the daily definition to 9,707.
And I want again to send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.
I am pleased to report, though, and this is important and will become increasingly important in the weeks to come, that the vaccination programme continues apace.
4,358,725 people now have a first dose, 3,967,477 are now double dosed, and we have also now, very significantly, passed two million booster or third doses administered in Scotland. To be precise, 2,000,915.
On first, second, third and booster doses, Scotland is still the most vaccinated part of the UK.
And again, I want to record my thanks to everyone involved in organising and delivering this vaccine programme. Without a doubt, the biggest peacetime logistical exercise that has ever been undertaken in Scotland.
Now, in relation to the Omicron variant specifically, as of 5pm yesterday, there were 110 confirmed cases in Scotland. And to give some context to that, 10 days ago we reported a total of 9 confirmed cases.
Now, these are confirmed cases and by that we mean that Omicron has been confirmed through genomic sequencing.
There are two reasons why confirmed cases represent just the tip of the iceberg and shouldn’t really be looked at as the best indicator of the true prevalence of the variant in Scotland right now.
The first reason is because genomic sequencing takes some time, much longer than processing a PCR test, so there is a time lag in these figures. But secondly, while in Scotland we do a lot of genomic sequencing, not all tests are or indeed can be analysed in that way.
So a much better indicator of whether a case is Omicron or not, is whether the PCR test shows a specific genetic characteristic known as the S gene drop out. And you may have heard us talk about that previously.
Now around 95% of all tests in Scotland are analysed in a way that allows us to know this.
And almost all tests that do show the S gene drop out just now will be the Omicron variant.
So these figures help to give a much better sense of the true scale of the variant in Scotland at this stage.
And, what they show, is that Omicron right now is rising exponentially. Indeed, what we are seeing in the data just now is perhaps the fastest exponential growth that we have seen in this pandemic so far.
In the final week of November, if we look at all of the Covid cases recorded in Scotland, there were no days when the proportion of cases with the S Gene drop out was higher than 1%.
However, by last Sunday, the 5 December, the proportion had risen to 2%. On Tuesday, it was just over 4%. On Wednesday it was almost 7%, and today, it is 15.5%.
Now you might think that these are still relatively small percentages, but consider that trend. This is doubling on a very, very, rapid basis. Indeed, our estimate at this stage is that the doubling time for Omicron cases is between 2 and 3 days. And actually it may be closer to 2 days than to 3 days.
Now, if that continues, and we have no reason at this stage to expect that it won’t, Omicron is going to very quickly overtake Delta as the dominant strain in Scotland.
Indeed, I think we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks. We estimate this will may be as early as the very beginning of next week.
Now you might be asking, why does that matter? It matters because Omicron has a much higher R number – a higher transmissibility – than the Delta variant which for some time now has been the dominant strain in Scotland and much of the world.
So, the R number in Scotland in recent weeks has been hovering around 1. We always like it to be below 1, but hovering around 1 is not the worst place to be in. Of course, we’ve been seeing a decline in cases in Scotland in recent weeks.
However, the R number associated with Omicron is likely we think to be well over 2 –and possibly closer to 3.
And as and when Omicron becomes the dominant strain as it is in the process of doing, the R number associated with it will then increasingly become the R number for Scotland as a whole.
So as a result, our estimate is that the R number overall is likely to rise and possibly to rise above 2.
All of these estimates are based on the limited data that we already have here in Scotland, and we have been analyzing that closely but also other data available from South Africa and elsewhere.
What it all that means is that in our judgement right now, it isn’t any longer a question of if we are facing a surge in cases. We now believe that to be virtually certain.
Our health protection teams are working really hard through contact tracing, testing and isolation to slow the spread of Omicron cases and I want to thank them for the excellent work they are doing and everybody across the population who will be following their advice.
But the nature of transmission, and the nature of a variant that is even more transmissible than what has come before, means we do expect to see a rapid rise in cases in the days and weeks ahead.
This is driven by the transmissibility of this variant. Figures we are seeing here in Scotland are consistent with data from around the world. And they provide a considerable degree of certainty that Omicron is significantly more transmissible than the Delta variant.
The best expert advice at this stage also tells us that that Omicron is more capable of re-infecting people who have had the virus previously.
And – based on preliminary laboratory trials – the best evidence suggests it can evade to some extent the immunity conferred by vaccination.
Now, and I want to underline – triple underline – this point. That does not mean that the vaccines will not significantly help us. Being less effective is not the same – nowhere near the same – as vaccines being ineffective.
And booster doses, in particular, will help retain a higher level of vaccine efficiency.
So getting your vaccines, including your booster, remains absolutely crucial.
The thing we don’t know yet, is whether Omicron cases cause more or less serious illness than the Delta variant.
However, there is an absolutely crucial point that we all need to understand, and it is one of the most important points I need to set out today because it is a matter of basic and quite brutal arithmetic.
Even if the variant is generally a little bit less severe for most people – and let me stress we still don’t know if that is the case – but even if it is, and we certainly hope it will be, for some people it will still cause serious illness, hospitalisation, and, tragically, some people will die.
But the overall impact point here is that even if a smaller percentage of people overall than is the case for Delta require hospital treatment, a small percentage – and a smaller percentage – of a bigger number will result in a massive number of cases who might need hospital care.
And given the volume of people who could be infected by Omicron because of its greater transmissibility, even if most of those cases are mild, the number of cases of serious illness amongst those infections will put massive strain on the ability of the NHS to cope.
Also, the numbers of people becoming infected even mildly – and having to isolate – will put a significant strain on the economy and on critical services.
And we’re actually starting to see this already. I can tell you that today there are 60 ScotRail cancellations due to staff shortages, and these staff shortages are mainly due to Covid.
And as you may have seen in the media already today, many staff at an Accident & Emergency unit in Lanarkshire are having to isolate – through no fault of theirs, incidentally – after attending a social event and becoming infected.
So, all of this means that Omicron, I am afraid, is an immensely concerning development – even if it does prove to be slightly less severe than Delta. It’s concerning for Scotland, for the UK, and indeed for the world.
I wanted to set this out to you today, not to try and scare people, but to provide the context for the difficult decisions that all governments might have to take in days to come. And to do what I have always tried to do – level with you and try to share the rationale for these decisions.
We, in the Scottish Government, will be considering our next steps very carefully – but also mindful, in the face of this virus, particularly a more transmissible variant, of the need to act quickly.
We will be discussing matters on a 4 nations basis too. I am very mindful, very mindful, that anything we do – including some of what I am saying today – has an economic and a financial impact for businesses and UK funding arrangements means we have no choice but to look to the Treasury to act. That’s a point I will be raising again with the UK Government in a COBR meeting later this afternoon.
It is worth noting though – as I illustrated a moment ago – that not acting will also have a financial and economic impact as more people get infected and have to be away from work. But the impact of not acting will be less managed and therefore potentially more damaging.
Now, I will keep you and obviously Parliament fully updated in the days ahead.
But, there are two points I want to briefly make today before I conclude.
The first is in response to advice I received last night.
Given that Omicron is now becoming dominant, our response to it has to become more general. Because it will quickly be the case that most people who have Covid have the Omicron variant.
And we must do all we can in that context to break the transmission chains.
Therefore, from tomorrow, our advice will be that all household contacts of any confirmed Covid case should isolate for 10 days regardless of their vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative PCR test.
I know that this is not easy – and we will obviously keep it under review. We will also ensure careful exemptions for critical services.
But we believe this to be essential at this moment to help slow transmission.
Non household contacts should continue to isolate pending a PCR result. If that is negative they can leave isolation at that point as long as they are double vaccinated.
Secondly, I want to refer to the advice that Public Health Scotland made public late yesterday afternoon that people should think about deferring work Christmas parties.
This is not easy advice to give or to hear.
But it is incumbent on public health experts to set out very clearly and frankly the risks we face, and it is incumbent on me and government to pay attention to that advice.
There is a significant risk with Omicron – and we are already seeing the reality of it – of Christmas parties or events with lots of people becoming super-spreaders.
And if that happens lots of people get infected and if these are work events, as well as the risk to individual health, there is a risk to the ability of the workplace to operate as people have to isolate. And I’ve already cited the train cancellations and the Accident & Emergency unit in Lanarkshire as examples and illustrations of that.
So the public health advice – which I have no alternative but to agree with given the evidence of risk that I know about and have now shared with you – is that we should all think a bit more carefully about unnecessary contacts, especially in crowded places just now. And that it would be sensible to defer work Christmas parties.
Now I know this has a big impact on businesses which is why we are considering – and pressing the UK government – on financial support.
But once again we face a situation that frankly has no easy options.
We know that any additional protective measures will cause social and economic harms – especially after almost two years of this pandemic.
But we also know – from past experience – that early action is often needed when dealing with this virus. In fact acting early, is often the best way of acting proportionately. So we can’t rule out further measures. And I’m afraid we can’t avoid the advice that I have shared with you today.
I will continue to do all I can to be upfront and open with you in the days ahead. And I continue to be so grateful for the responsibility the vast majority across the population are showing.
For now, though, I will end with a plea to abide by all the current protections that we have in place. It is more important than ever.
In fact, doing that still gives us the best chance we have of minimising the need for any further protections
So I want to stress once again what those current protections are.
Firstly, please get vaccinated. What I’ve set out to you today is grim to hear, I understand that. But vaccination, even with that, means we are in a better position than last year and a better position – a vastly better position – than we would be without it. So please get your vaccination – first, second, third or booster dose – as soon as you are able to. It’s the single best thing we can do. And it’s not too late if you haven’t done that already.
Secondly, test yourself regularly and often.
If you are going to meet other people – then test yourself before you do so. And if you are asking someone round to your home, or if you’re meeting someone for lunch or a drink, test yourself and stress the importance to the people you are meeting of them doing the same.
Do that even if you are going out for Christmas shopping.
The evidence we have, suggests that lateral flow tests are as effective at identifying Covid for Omicron cases, as they are for Delta cases.
So that means they are a hugely important way of helping us find out whether we might have the virus – especially if we don’t have symptoms. So if we take these tests before we go, and if we’re positive if we isolate and get a PCR test, we significantly reduce the risk that we then pass the virus on, inadvertently, to others.
You can get LFD devices online, NHS Inform, they’ll be mailed to your home, or get them from a local pharmacy or test centre. They’re easy to get and they’re going to be made available in other places over the next period – shopping centres, garden centres, for example. But they’re already easy to get and they’re easy to use as well.
And finally, please comply with all of the other basic protections.
It’s more important than ever that you’re wearing your face covering on public transport, in shops, and when moving about in hospitality.
Keep windows open when you are meeting people indoors. Don’t get me wrong, I know that is not an easy thing to ask in Scotland in December, but it does make a difference.
And follow all of the advice on hand hygiene and cleaning surfaces.
And please work from home if you can. If you were working from home at the start of the pandemic, please work from home now. And employers, if that was the case for your staff, please enable it to be the case now.
This is not a briefing any of you would have wanted to hear. It’s certainly not one I wanted to deliver, especially not as we approach Christmas. Just as I’m sure all of you long for the day you never have to see me, or any of us, at this podium again for a Covid briefing, let me assure you I long never to have to do another Covid briefing again.
But we face a really challenging period ahead again. And the only way through it, and we know this from experience, is together, with a shared understanding of what we need to do and a shared willingness to do it for our own sake and the sake of all those around us.
And a key thing to remember is that – even with Omicron – we know the things we can do to help to make a difference.
So please – get vaccinated, test yourself regularly, and follow all of the other rules and guidelines. That will help us get through, even with everything I’ve said today I hope it will help us have a Christmas much more normal than last year. Above all, a Christmas that is safe and allows us to go into the new year still hoping for that better Spring ahead.
Given the number of COVID-19 outbreaks that are being linked to Christmas parties, particularly those caused by Omicron, Public Health Scotland (PHS) is URGING PEOPLE TO DEFER SUCH PARTIES AT THIS TIME.
Dr Nick Phin, Director of Public Health Science and Medical Director, PHS explains: “There is much that we still need to learn about Omicron, but early evidence suggests that this new Covid variant is much more transmissible.
“The impact of this transmissibility has been seen in recent weeks, with a number of Omicron outbreaks linked to parties.
“We still need to learn more about the severity of disease caused by Omicron and the effectiveness of vaccines, but there are important things that we can do to help protect ourselves and our families now. To help minimise the further spread of Covid-19, and Omicron in particular, I would strongly urge people to defer their Christmas parties to another time.
“I appreciate that everyone is keen to celebrate this festive season, particularly after the pressures of the last twenty months, but by postponing some plans we can all do our bit to protect ourselves and our loved ones.”
A reminder of the other measures we can all take to continue to keep safe over the festive period:
Please get your vaccine and your booster when your turn comes.
Please test at least twice weekly using LFDs and take a test each time you are socialising with people out with your household.
Reduce the number of people you catch up with. Try to meet outdoors; if indoors, ensure ventilation is good.
Keep up the other public health measures: wash your hands, clean surfaces, maintain distances and of course wear a face covering in public spaces.
It’s understood First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will give a Coronavirus update tomorrow (Friday).
Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister’s statement:– 7 December 2021
Presiding Officer,
I will give an update on the general COVID situation.
I will also share the most up to date information we have on the Omicron variant – both its transmission in Scotland and the world’s developing understanding of it – and set out the steps we must take to slow its spread, and to stem transmission of the virus more generally.
First, though, today’s statistics.
3,060 positive cases were reported yesterday – 9.2% of all tests carried out.
576 people are in hospital with COVID – which is 15 fewer than yesterday.
And 38 people are in intensive care, which is five fewer than yesterday.
Sadly, a further 12 deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, which takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 9,661.
I want once again to send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.
I am pleased to report, however, that the vaccination programme continues apace.
4,355,063 people have now had a first dose, 3,962,203 have had two doses, and 1,922,604 have had a booster or third dose.
On first, second, third and booster doses, Scotland is still the most vaccinated part of the UK.
Indeed, at this stage on booster doses we are comfortably ahead of the other UK nations, with around 40% of the over 12 population having had a booster jag.
So I want to again record my thanks to everyone involved in organising and delivering the vaccine programme.
Today’s weekly update coincides with the latest three-week review point for all of the remaining COVID regulations. I can therefore confirm that at our meeting this morning, the Cabinet agreed to keep all of the current protections in place, with no immediate changes.
Given the very significant risks posed by Omicron, and the continuing high and indeed once again rising number of cases in Scotland overall, our judgment is that it would be inappropriate to lift any of the protections currently in place at this time.
On the contrary, we agreed that it is vital at this stage to strengthen compliance with all of these existing protections.
We also agreed that, in light of the rapidly developing Omicron situation, it was important to keep the need for any additional protections under daily review at this stage.
The importance of doing that will be clear from the latest data, particularly the data I will share shortly on Omicron.
Firstly, though, let me quickly summarise the overall situation.
After two weeks of falling case numbers, the last seven days have seen a rise in the overall number of cases.
Last week, I reported that the number of new cases being recorded each day had fallen by 14% over the preceding seven days.
However in this past week, cases have increased by 11%. We are currently recording just over 2,800 new cases a day on average.
Encouragingly though cases in the over 60 age groups have continued to fall – in the past week by a further 8%. There is little doubt, if any doubt, that this reflects the effectiveness of booster vaccines.
However, in all age cohorts under 60, cases are rising again.
In total, cases amongst under 60s increased by 13% in the past week – and since people under 60 currently account for more than 90% of all cases, that has inevitably driven an increase in the total number of cases recorded.
More positively, the number of people in hospital with Covid has fallen further in the last week – from 706 to 576.
And so has the number in intensive care – from 54 to 38.
That is of course welcome news.
But we should not be in any way complacent about it.
Firstly, because we know that there will always be a time lag between rising cases and rising admissions to hospital.
And, secondly, because the NHS continues to be under very severe pressure, from direct COVID pressures, but also from the backlog of work created during the pandemic.
On top of all that, the NHS may soon face additional pressures – for example from flu – as we head further into winter.
And there has always been the potential for COVID cases to rise during December – as may now be happening – as a result of more people mixing indoors more often.
So in any circumstances, we would be concerned about the current high level of cases, and the impact this might have on the NHS.
But the emergence of the Omicron variant is now an additional – and indeed very significant – cause for concern.
Public Health Scotland’s weekly COVID report will, from tomorrow, provide more detail on both confirmed and probable Omicron cases in Scotland.
It will include data, not just on confirmed cases, but also on the number of PCR tests showing what is called the S-gene drop-out – this is not conclusive evidence that a case is of the Omicron variant, but it is highly indicative of it.
The report will also contain data on the age, sex and health board area of Omicron cases.
In weeks to come – and as soon as the quality of data allows – these reports will also provide details on the vaccination status of, and hospital admissions and deaths associated with, Omicron cases.
For now, though, let me summarise what we currently know about the presence and spread of this new variant in Scotland. I can confirm that, as of 5pm yesterday, there were 99 confirmed cases here.
This is an increase of 28 since yesterday. And to give a sense of the speed of increase – albeit at this stage from a low level – the figure I reported this time last week was nine. So we have seen more than a tenfold increase in the space of a week.
A still low – at around 4% – but nevertheless steadily rising proportion of cases also now show the S gene drop out that, that as I said a moment ago, is highly indicative of Omicron.
Our estimate at this stage is that the doubling time for Omicron cases may be as short as two to three days, and that the R number associated with the new variant may be well over 2.
I can also report that there are now confirmed cases in nine of our 14 health board areas – suggesting that community transmission is becoming more widespread, and possibly more sustained, across the country.
Now our health protection teams are working hard through contact tracing, testing and isolation to slow the spread of Omicron cases. That work will obviously continue and I want to thank them for the excellent work they are doing.
However, given the nature of transmission, I would expect to see a continued and potentially rapid rise in cases in the days ahead and for Omicron to account for a rising share of overall cases.
And all of this explains, I hope, the requirement for government to review the situation on a daily rather than a weekly basis at this stage.
Let me turn now briefly to the developing global understanding of Omicron.
The first point to make is that there still a great deal we do not yet know.
However data on cases worldwide, including here at home, gives a reasonable degree of certainty at this stage that Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant, and perhaps significantly so.
Early – though again unconfirmed – data also suggests that Omicron is more capable of re-infecting people who have had the virus previously. In other words, it has some ability to evade natural immunity.
And, of course, there is also a concern that it may evade to some extent the immunity conferred by vaccinations.
Let me stress again, though, at this point that even if this does prove to be the case, getting vaccinated will still be vitally important.
Vaccines being slightly less effective is not the same, nowhere near it in fact, as vaccines being ineffective.
Being vaccinated will still give us much more protection against Omicron, especially from severe illness, than we will have if we are not vaccinated.
Now further data and analysis is needed to confirm all of the hypotheses about the transmissibility, immunity evasion and severity of Omicron.
We will learn more about its characteristics and implications- in the days and weeks ahead, and this developing understanding will inform and shape our response.
However, we can assume already that the emergence of Omicron is a significant challenge for all of us.
A variant that is more transmissible than Delta, and which has even a limited ability to evade natural or vaccine immunity, has the potential to put very intense additional pressure on the National Health Service.
And a key point we must understand is this, and I want to underline this point. The sheer weight of numbers of people who could be infected as a result of increased transmissibility and some immune evasion will create this pressure even if the disease the new variant causes in individuals is no more severe than Delta.So there is no doubt, unfortunately, that this is another serious moment in the course of the pandemic.
And I will talk shortly about what that means for all of us.
But firstly, let me outline the principles that will guide any decisions government may have to take in the days and weeks ahead.
It is worth noting that the period ahead – as we learn more about the new variant – may involve very difficult judgments for governments everywhere. Indeed, many governments around the world are already taking decisions that we all hoped were behind us for good.
For the Scottish Government, our first principle will be to seek to do what is necessary to keep the country as safe as possible, even if that is sometimes at the expense of being popular.
And second, we will strive to get the right balance between acting proportionately and acting preventatively.
We know from experience, sometimes bitter experience, that with an infectious virus acting quickly can be vital – if we wait too long for data to confirm we have a problem, it might already be too late to prevent the problem.
In fact, acting preventatively is often the best way of ensuring that action can remain limited and proportionate.
However, after two years of restrictions – with the accumulation of social and economic harms that previous restrictions have caused – we also know that it is ever more important to minimise further restrictions as far as is possible.
So while recognising that it is never a perfect science, we will seek to get that balance right.
Let me turn to the action we have taken so far and what we are asking everyone to do now.
Firstly, in line with the other UK nations, we have tightened travel rules.
In the past week, Nigeria has been added to the travel red list. That means anyone arriving in the UK from Nigeria – or the 10 countries already on the list – must enter managed quarantine for 10 days.
In addition, since this morning, anyone aged 12 or over, who is travelling to the UK from outside the Common Travel Area, will be required to take a COVID test shortly before they leave for the UK. And this is in addition to the requirement to take a test on day two after arrival in the UK and to self-isolate pending the result.
My advice to anyone planning travel between Scotland and countries outside the common travel area, is to check on the Scottish Government website for detailed guidance; and to also check the requirements of the country you are travelling to. Because the requirements there may well be different to those in force here.
Presiding Officer
At this stage, travel restrictions have an important part to play in responding to Omicron.
However, given that we already have some community transmission in Scotland, what we do domestically is also important.
That is why Cabinet decided this morning to keep in force all existing protections. However, we also agreed that it is vital not just to maintain, but to strengthen compliance with these protections.
It is time for all of us to go back to basics and ensure that we are taking all of the steps required to minimise the risk of getting or spreading this virus.
Indeed, it is through heightened compliance with current protections that we will give ourselves the best chance of avoiding any additional protections.
So I am asking everyone to make an extra effort to do so from now through the festive period and into January.
Obviously, that means wearing face coverings in indoor public places; ventilating rooms by opening windows; and ensuring good hand hygiene.
However, there are two important protections that I want to emphasise particularly strongly today.
Scotland, let's all pull together and do what's necessary.
Watch FM @NicolaSturgeon's message about how to be safe this winter, including by:
🔹 Taking a test each time you're planning to meet up with others 🔹 Working from home, where possible
Firstly, working from home. We already advise people to work from home wherever practical.
Today, I am asking employers to ensure this is happening.
To be blunt, if you had staff working from home at this start of the pandemic, please now enable them to do so again.
We are asking you to do this from now until the middle of January when we will review this advice again.
I know how difficult this is, but I cannot stress enough how much difference we think this could make in helping stem transmission and avoid the need for even more onerous measures.
Secondly, testing and isolation.
Test & Protect is deploying enhanced contract tracing for all cases with the S-gene drop-out that is indicative of Omicron – for these cases, household contacts of close contacts, rather than just the close contacts themselves, are being asked to test and isolate. If you are asked to do this, please comply.
More generally, for non-Omicron cases, if you have symptoms of COVID, please get a PCR test and self-isolate until you get the result.
If your result is negative you can end isolation at that point if you are double vaccinated. If positive, you must isolate for the full 10 days.
And crucially, please remember that you can have this virus even if you have no symptoms.
So testing regularly and repeatedly with lateral flow devices is essential.
We are asking everyone to do a lateral flow test before mixing with people from other households – and on every occasion you intend doing so.
That means before going to a pub, to a restaurant, visiting someone’s house, or even going shopping.
Let me be clear Presiding Officer, I am not excluding myself from this. I am currently doing a test every morning before coming to work and I will do a test on any occasion I mix with others over the festive period. And I will ask anyone visiting my home over Christmas to do likewise. And I’m asking every member of this Parliament to lead by example, and do that too.
LFD kits are easy to get through NHS Inform or from local pharmacies or test centres. And they are very easy to use.
So please, please do this. It will significantly help us break the chains of transition.
If we all do all of these things, difficult though I appreciate they are, then even with a more transmissible variant, I do really hope we can avoid any further measures.
I cannot guarantee this however. I don’t think any responsible person in my position could guarantee this at this stage. And given the situation we face it is important to remain open to any proportionate measures, for example the extension of COVID certification, that might help us reduce the risks should the situation deteriorate.
The government will carefully analyse the data in the days ahead. I hope this doesn’t require us to take any decisions ahead of my next scheduled statement a week today, but if it does I will obviously return to Parliament.
I want to end Presiding Officer, by again reiterating the vital importance of vaccination.
We are currently the most vaccinated part of the UK – and we have more quickly than other nations implemented the JVCI advice to reduce the gap between second doses and boosters – but we are not complacent.
We are identifying and training additional vaccinators. So far we have added the equivalent of more than 300 additional full-time staff to the vaccination workforce.
We are also working to further increase vaccination capacity. A number of health boards – Fife and Tayside for example – are now using drop-in centres to make vaccination even easier.
And we are in the process of increasing the use of mobile vaccination units provided by the Scottish Ambulance Service.
In addition to these efforts – which are intended to improve the supply and availability of vaccination – we are also working to increase demand by encouraging even more people to take up the offer of vaccine.
In the past week, therefore, text or e-mail messages have been sent to those aged between 40 and 60, encouraging them to book their booster jag.
For those now able to get a booster jag – that is anyone over 40 who had the second jag 12 or more weeks ago – please arrange an appointment as quickly as possible.
You can book through the NHS Inform website, or by calling the vaccination helpline.
And if you’re 16 or 17 you can of course, and should, also book your second dose in the same way.
Last week, we also sent blue envelope letters to all 50 to 59 year olds who have not yet been vaccinated at all. A similar letter is being issued over the course of this week to everyone between 40 and 49 who hasn’t yet been vaccinated.
Take-up of the vaccine has been exceptional, but there are still a significant number of people in those age groups who have not been vaccinated.
To anyone in that position, let me be clear about this – it is not too late to get vaccinated. In fact it is now more important than ever to get your first jag and start to get that essential protection.
To conclude Presiding Officer, Omicron is a really concerning development and one of the most unwelcome developments at this stage in the pandemic. But, this is the positive aspect, the actions that have helped us against other variants, will also help against Omicron.
That means we all know what we need to do to in the days and weeks ahead.
And so my request to everyone is to follow those steps. Please go back to basics and make sure that we are all doing everything that we are asked to.
That’s the best way we have of making Christmas and the New Year as safe as possible – and of maximising our ability to navigate this next unwelcome but unavoidable challenge without any additional protections.
It will also help us protect the NHS and those who are working so hard in the NHS and social care to keep us all safe. So please do get vaccinated.
Secondly, do test regularly, on any occasion before socialising, or mixing with people from other households.
And finally, make sure you comply with all of the existing protections.
Wear your face coverings on public transport, in shops, and when moving about in hospitality.
Keep windows open. Not easy, I know, in the weather we are currently experiencing but try to keep windows open if you’re meeting people indoors. And follow all of the hygiene advice.
And if you were working from home at the start of the pandemic, please do so again for the next few weeks.
None of this is what any of us want two years into this ordeal. I know that.
But it is the best way of slowing the spread of the virus in general and Omicron in particular.
And by doing that, we do give ourselves the best possible chance of enjoying a Christmas that is more normal, but also safe – and of avoiding a new year hangover of spiraling cases.
Please – and I really hope this will be for one last time in this pandemic – let’s all pull together, do what is necessary, and get each other and the country through this winter and into what we all hope will be a better and brighter spring.
