Met Office – Page 4 – The NEN – North Edinburgh News

Scottish Flood Forecasting Service marks 10th Anniversary

The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) is today marking a decade of supporting the nation’s preparedness and response to flooding.

Staffed around the clock 365 days a year, the service has been combining hydrological and meteorological data to provide strengthened flood forecasting for Scotland over the last 10 years, and is a close partnership between The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office.

Its team of experts across Scotland has delivered more than 3800 national flood guidance statements. These five day forecasts are issued daily to a range of 230 organisations including emergency services and local authorities, helping emergency responders prepare in advance for the impacts of flooding.

Climate change is likely to bring increased risk of coastal, river and surface water flooding. With sea level rise and more extreme weather, including wetter winters, more intense rainfall and thundery weather in summer, the increasing importance of the service to help Scotland prepare and adapt is clear.

The service has played a critical role in forecasting impacts from some of the most significant weather events of the decade, including storms Desmond and Frank in 2015. These saw SEPA issue its first severe Flood Warning since the formation of the SFFS, and its highest number of Flood Warnings in one day (101 warnings) respectively.

Terry A’Hearn, SEPA CEO, said: “Over the last ten years, the SFFS has proved a vital service to help Scotland prepare in advance for the worst impacts of flooding. Preparation is crucial, as we saw in the last fortnight when towns from Aberdeenshire to the Scottish Borders flooded.

“The threat from flooding is real and growing. As well as posing a risk to properties, infrastructure and our environment, it can pose a serious threat to life. We and our partners at the Met Office, together with flood management authorities, community responders and communities themselves all have key roles to play as Scotland learns to live safely with flooding.”

Over the last 10 years, the Met Office has made continual improvements to the radar network and other weather technology. This enables the SFFS to issue more detailed daily flood guidance, with ever increasing lead-time and confidence.

Met Office Chief Executive Professor Penny Endersby said: “Climate change is not only resulting in a warming climate but also more intense rainfall which has a crucial bearing on the SFFS’s operations. The risk and impacts of flooding are likely to increase over the coming years, meaning we will need to continue to adapt our services.

“Forecasting skills are constantly evolving and developing thanks to world leading, cutting-edge science and technology and as we look to the future it is clear that we will need to continue to work together if we are to ensure that Scotland will continue to stay safe and thrive.”

The service was also recognised by the Royal Meteorological Society for its pioneering work to provide the UK’s first operational 24-hour surface water flood risk forecast during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.

Showing street-level surface water predictions for the first time, the project was the result of joint research with Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters, CREW, and has helped improve understand of flooding that doesn’t arise from rivers or the sea.

The launch of the SFFS in March 2011 was supported by the Scottish Government.

Kenny Wratten, Chair of the Local Authorities Resilience Group Scotland, said: “Getting that five day forecast of flooding every morning from SFFS helps councils plan and deliver flood mitigation and response.

“The earlier we get an indication of what’s expected and where, the better we and other responders can gear up to make best use of available resource in areas we know are most likely to be affected.

“For councils this might include extra maintenance in trouble spots, considering road closures, the deployment of flood protection measures, and making arrangements to assist people. More than anything it’s about working together using best knowledge to support our communities.”

Paul Laidlaw, Resilience Manager for the Scottish Flood Forum said: “Services from the SFFS are invaluable to the Scottish Flood Forum (SFF), as they help us to work with communities to build actions that help them prepare for flooding.

“The Flood Guidance Statement in particular helps us and other recognised community responders get enough of a heads-up to prepare where flood recovery resources may need to be deployed, to help those impacted.

“It also provides an excellent learning tool for us to help communities develop flood plans and response exercises, which alongside SEPA Flood Warning messages helps them better avoid, reduce or prevent damages that all too often can leave physical and psychological scars.”

In addition to the five-day flood forecast shared with emergency responders and those with flood-risk management duties, plans are also in progress for a public-facing three-day flood forecasting product, being developed in consultation with the public.

SEPA is Scotland’s national flood forecasting, flood warning and strategic flood risk management authority. As well as working in partnership with the Met Office to forecast for flooding, it operates Floodline in Scotland to warn the public and emergency responders when flooding is likely.

It issues regional Flood Alerts – early advice that flooding is possible – across wide geographical areas covering the length and breadth of Scotland. It also issues local Flood Warnings in areas where it has developed river system monitoring and flood risk impact knowledge. These warnings are issued at shorter notice when it is more certain that a specific area will be affected.

Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Flooding, added: “There are some simple steps you can take to help prepare for flooding, including signing up to Floodline, preparing a flood plan, familiarising yourself with how to shut off energy and water supplies, having key contact numbers to hand and considering the use of flood protection products.

“And when flooding does strike, remember these five important tips;

Do not walk, drive or swim through flood water.
Do avoid any form of direct contact with flood water as it could be contaminated.
Do not use any electrical appliances.
Do move to higher ground and wait for the emergency services to find you.
Do co-operate with emergency services and your local authority who are responsible for co-ordinating relief measures.”

Further advice can be found at floodlinescotland.org.uk.

SEPA’s river level data webpages restored

Members of the public can access river level data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) for the first time since the cyber-attack on 24 December.

The data has remained available to SEPA staff ensuring delivery of nationally important flood forecasting, including Flood Alerts and Warnings, continued throughout. What was not possible was displaying the same information on public web pages.

SEPA’s river gauging network consists of over 350 sites. While between 10 and 15 percent of stations are not displaying data at present, work to bring these back online is progressing and new sites are being added every day. The page is available at sepa.org.uk/waterlevels.

Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Hydrology, said: “We appreciate how valuable our river level data is, from those planning leisure activities to people looking for additional information during flooding.

“Flood Alerts and Warnings are always the most up-to-date information, but when river levels are very high and warnings are out we know residents use the site to see whether levels upstream are continuing to rise or have started to fall.

“Since the cyber-attack on Christmas Eve our staff have worked as quickly as possible to restore public access, and this is an important step in the restoration of information that we know people use.”

The river level service will still be subject to intermittent interruptions as additional work continues in the background but these will be kept to a minimum as much as possible.

The data download facility, rainfall web pages and historical river and rainfall data are not yet available.

SEPA is working to restore these services as quickly as possible and will continue to provide updates through its weekly service status updates published every Friday at at sepa.org.uk/servicestatus.

Amber weather warning for snow

The transport network is expected to face a further period of disruption following an upgraded amber warning for snow in central Scotland.

The Met Office has issued an upgraded amber warning for parts of Central, Tayside and Fife, as well as West Lothian, East and West Dunbartonshire, and North Lanarkshire. It runs from 3am on Tuesday morning until 9pm tonight.

A yellow warning for snow remains in place for parts of central and eastern Scotland until midnight on Wednesday.

The current COVID restrictions mean that people should not be making journeys unless they are for an essential purpose.

Potential impacts of the amber warning include long delays and cancellations on bus and rail travel. Roads may be affected by deep snow, particularly over higher routes, and some rural communities might be cut off. Interruptions to power supplies and telephone networks could also occur.

Our operating companies are continuing to closely monitor the trunk road network, pre-deploying resources and carrying out dedicated patrols and treatments, as well as providing assistance to motorists where necessary.

Specialist snow plans have been activated for key routes, such as the M8 and M80, and the Multi Agency Response Team will be operational throughout the warning period.

Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Infrastructure and Connectivity Michael Matheson said: “We’re being warned that parts of Scotland are expected to face another period of challenging weather, with the Met Office issuing an amber snow warning for Tuesday.

“The current COVID restrictions mean you should only be leaving your home for an essential purpose, so please consider if your journey is absolutely necessary before setting off. The forecast conditions will likely cause difficult driving conditions and disruption to the wider transport network.

“If you do have to make an essential journey, then the advice remains the same as it has throughout this winter – plan your route in advance, drive to the conditions and follow Police Scotland travel advice. There may be disruption on other modes of transport, so you should check with your operators before setting off.

“Motorists can check with Traffic Scotland to make sure that their route is available. The Traffic Scotland mobile website – my.trafficscotland.org – lets people get the latest information on the move and the Traffic Scotland twitter page is also updated regularly.”

Chief Superintendent Louise Blakelock said: “Government restrictions on only travelling if your journey is essential remains in place and so with an Amber warning for snow, please consider if your journey really is essential and whether you can delay it until the weather improves.

“If you deem your journey really is essential, plan ahead and make sure you and your vehicle are suitably prepared by having sufficient fuel and supplies such as warm clothing, food, water and charge in your mobile phone in the event you require assistance.

“The Met Office, Traffic Scotland and SEPA websites and social media channels have valuable information about weather disruptions and we would encourage people to check these sites before setting off on their journey.”

Snow and ice warning issued

An Amber warning for snow has been issued for parts of Scotland and north east England.

There is also a yellow national severe weather warning in place for snow and ice across large parts of England and Scotland.

The Amber snow warning is valid until 10am this morning (Thursday).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1349308040097492994

Rain will turn to snow, initially on high ground this afternoon, but increasingly to lower levels. The risk of snow will extend southwards into northern parts of England this evening. 10 to 20 cm of snow could accumulate above 200 metres within the warning area and some places at lower levels could see 5 to 10 cm of snow by Thursday morning. Snow is likely to slowly die out through tomorrow afternoon.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Paul Gundersen, said; “There is cold air from the north pushing down the east side of the UK and warm air moving in from the west. Where these two air masses meet a weather front is bringing some heavy rain which is turning to snow in places.”

The current, more widespread, yellow warning for snow and ice is valid until 9pm tonight. It covers the risk of snow and sleet this afternoon across large parts of northern England and Scotland, as well as the risk of ice with rain falling on frozen surfaces overnight tonight and tomorrow morning.

There is a continued risk of wintry, unsettled weather into next week as warm and cold air continue to battle it out above the UK and weather fronts try to make headway across the country.

A yellow snow and ice warning has already be issued for Saturday covering large parts of Scotland and northern and central England.

Keep up to date with the latest weather warnings and the forecast for your area using the warning and forecast pages on the Met Office website.

You can also follow the Met Office on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using the  mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

Weather warning: snow and ice

Police Scotland is advising drivers that the Met Office has issued a Yellow Weather Warning for snow and ice covering a number of areas across Scotland today (Thursday, 31 December).

The local authority areas affected will be Highland, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Angus, Clackmannanshire, Dundee, Falkirk, Fife, Perth and Kinross, Stirling, Dumfries and Galloway, East Lothian, Edinburgh, Midlothian Council, Scottish Borders, West Lothian, Argyll and Bute, East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire.

The Met Office warning lasts until 2pm on Thursday, 31 December. Conditions for travel may be hazardous and extra caution should be exercised.

What to expect:

Snow and ice may bring some disruption late in to Thursday morning or early afternoon.

Northerly winds will bring showers of rain, sleet and snow across the north of Northern Ireland as well as northern, western and south of Scotland.

Snow accumulations will mostly be confined to ground above 100m away from coasts, but some temporary slushy deposits are possible to low levels at times. 1-3cm is likely to accumulate above 100m, and as much as 5-10cm above 250m, this mostly across high ground of Scotland. Some accumulations of 1-3 cm are likely, again mainly over higher ground, but 5 cm or more is possible over parts of southern Scotland.

What to do:

If you are travelling you should ensure that you and your vehicle are adequately prepared for the conditions, making sure you have sufficient fuel and supplies, such as warm clothing, food & water in the event of being delayed for several hours.

Make sure that there is sufficient tread on the tyres fitted to your vehicle, ensure tyres are correctly inflated and that the screen wash is filled.

Charge your mobile phone and have the ability to charge it further if necessary.

Plan your route as well as alternatives to your planned route.

Drive to the conditions, leaving sufficient distance between you and the vehicle in front to allow you to use smooth braking, steering and acceleration to minimise skid risk.

Listen to media broadcasts especially local radio and Traffic Scotland Radio or visit www.trafficscotland.org.

For public transport information visit www.travelinescotland.

Follow @policescotland and @trafficscotland on Twitter for regular and up to date travel information.

Yellow Warning: There could be snow

YELLOW WEATHER WARNING: SNOW

The forecast for the coming week remains unsettled with rain and snow on Monday followed by a colder, showery spell mid-week.

A renewed spell of rain and strong winds may then affect some southern areas later this week.

A range of severe weather warnings for rain, and snow & ice are in place for Monday. An area of low pressure on Monday provides a continuation of the extremely unsettled period the UK has endured.

The expected wind impacts from this system have reduced as it moves towards the UK, and Met Office wind warnings for this system have now been stood down. However, the main risk now are wintry conditions across the northern half of Britain and Northern Ireland as this system moves north-east into an area of relatively cold air.

Dan Suri, a chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: “This low-pressure system will bring a lot of moisture into contact with the relatively cold air across the northern half of the UK.

This brings wintry conditions to an extending from East Yorkshire to North Lancashire across into Northern Ireland and northwards Scotland. For some, snowfall could coincide with the Monday rush hour, bringing additional complications.”

The bulk of snow accumulations in northern England are expected to occur at locations above 200 metres in elevation, but it’s likely that some sites lower than this could witness transient flurries before these turn to rain.

The snowfall in Scotland is expected to be heavier with accumulations of 2 to 5cm above 100 to 200 metres; sites above 300 metres may witness accumulations of 10 to 20 cm, most likely north of the Central Belt.

Urban areas on the immediate east coast of northern England and eastern Scotland may miss the snow though.

Beyond Monday there are currently no warnings scheduled but showers, some wintry, could place an additional burden on some river catchments: the public should check flood risk and stay up to date with flood warnings from Natural Resources Wales, SEPA, NI Direct and the Environment Agency.

You can get the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area using our forecast pages and by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

Storm Dennis: stay safe

A yellow weather warning for high winds remains in place this morning as the tail end of Storm Dennis passes through. Thirteen flood warnings are currently in place across Scotland, but none of these affect the Edinburgh area.

Commuters are being urged to take care when travelling in heavy rain, wind and thunderstorms.

The latest FLOOD ALERT for Edinburgh and Lothians was issued yesterday and remains in place: ‘While river levels are now receding, they are expected to remain high during Sunday.

‘There may be ongoing localised flooding, primarily of land and roads, with local disruption to travel and difficult driving conditions possible. Remain vigilant and remember, it is your responsibility to take actions which help protect yourself and your property.

‘Advice and information is also available through Floodline on 0345 9881188.

‘This FLOOD ALERT UPDATE is now in force until further notice. If you haven’t already signed up to receive free flood messages, please call Floodline or register online at sepa.org.uk/floodingsignup. Your Floodline quick dial number for this area is 23200.’

Driving in storms, rain and strong wind

Choices and planning ahead

Even moderate rain can reduce your ability to see and be seen. A good rule of thumb is ‘if it’s time for your wipers, it’s time to slow down’.
If heavy downpours are expected, avoid starting your journey until it clears.
If you can, choose main roads, where you are less likely to be exposed to fallen branches and debris and flooding.
Use dipped headlights if visibility is seriously reduced.
Gusts of wind can unsettle vehicles – grip your steering wheel firmly with both hands. This is particularly important when planning to overtake.
Keep an eye out for gaps between trees, buildings or bridges over a river or railway – these are some of the places you are more likely to be exposed to side winds. Ensure that you maintain enough room either side of your vehicle so you can account for it being blown sideways.
Roads will be more slippery than usual in wet weather – be sure to give yourself more time to react when approaching a hazard. Increase your following gap to at least four seconds from the moving traffic in front.
Keep your eyes peeled on the road at all times as spray from other vehicles can suddenly reduce your visibility. Remember it affects others too, so anticipate their actions and be prepared.

What to do when the road is flooded

If the road is flooded, turn around and find another route. The number one cause of death during flooding is driving through flood water, so the safest advice is turn around, don’t drown.
Although the water may seem shallow, just 12 inches (30cm) of moving water can float your car, potentially taking it to deeper water from which you may need rescuing.
Flood water also contains hidden hazards which can damage your car, and just an egg-cupful of water sucked into your car’s engine will lead to severe damage.
Never drive through flood water. Turn around.

Keep an eye out for cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians

Remember to give vulnerable road users including cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians more room than usual. They are more likely to be blown around by side winds – always keep a safe distance.

MORE than 30 specialist water rescue firefighters were deployed throughout the Scottish Borders in response to severe flooding over the weekend.

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service mobilised five water rescue units to the area, and they have been responding alongside partners to protect members of the public.

Crews carried out 15 water rescues at locations across Scotland including Perth, Linlithgow, Newcastleton and cross-border responses, and Operations Control have handled more than 60 flooding related incidents.

SFRS crews have also been working throughout the day to assist in the safe evacuation of residents in Hawick to safety, following Severe Flood Warnings indicating risk to life.

Heavy rains brought in by Storm Dennis have caused the River Teviot to reach its highest levels since 2015.

Assistant Chief Officer Paul Stewart said: “Crews have been working alongside our partners in extremely challenging conditions to ensure the safety of all residents in affected areas.

“We have been able to call upon specialist resources from across the East and West of Scotland, with more than 30 specialist water rescue firefighters mobilised to the area in response to the heightened flood risk.

“As such, we have been working very closely with partners and lead agencies throughout today to provide assistance where required and our resources remain available to protect Scotland’s communities.”

ACO Stewart added: “My thanks must go to our dedicated crews on the ground and our Operations Control staff, who have been working extremely hard across Scotland in response to severe weather related incidents in addition to normal 999 emergencies, as well as our partners and the resilient communities in the area.”

UK braced for Storm Dennis

Storm Dennis will bring very heavy rain and strong winds to the UK this weekend, with a risk of flooding and travel disruption in some areas.

The Met Office has issued multiple National Severe Weather Warnings for wind and rain from Saturday through to Monday, including several amber rain warnings for parts of England and Wales.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Steve Willington, said: “Storm Dennis will bring another very unsettled spell of weather this weekend with a risk of flooding, particularly in parts of England and Wales and also southern Scotland, where snowmelt will add to the flood risk.

“Following Storm Ciara last weekend and further spells of rain this week, the ground is already saturated in places. With Storm Dennis bringing further heavy and persistent rain over the weekend, there is a risk of significant impacts from flooding, including damage to property and a danger to life from fast flowing floodwater.

“Our advice is to keep an eye on the latest weather forecast and weather warnings for your area and to follow the safety advice from officials.”

Caroline Douglass, Flood Duty Manager at the Environment Agency, said: “We are advising people to sign up for flood warnings by phone, text or email and to access the latest safety advice on gov.uk by searching ‘sign up for flood warnings’.

“Remember to never drive or walk through flood water, just 30cm of flowing water is enough to move your car – it’s not worth the risk.”

In addition to rain warnings, the Met Office have issued several wind warnings over the weekend.

Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Laura Ellam, said: “It’ll be windy across the UK this weekend – on Saturday the strongest winds will be across England and Wales, and on Sunday the strongest winds will be across Northern Ireland, Scotland, and parts of northern England and north Wales, with coastal gales of 70mph at times.

“Monday will be another windy day, but the heavy rain will be replaced by blustery, wintry showers.”

You can get the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area using the Met Office forecast pages and by following us on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

Yellow weather warning remains in place … and here comes Dennis

A Met Office Yellow Warning for snow and ice remains in place today – the forecast is windy with wintry showers, drying up this afternoon.

The Queensferry Crossing remains CLOSED.

Today:

Further wintry showers in the morning. These becoming less widespread in the afternoon with more in the way of dry and sunny weather especially in east. Strong winds easing. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Tonight:

Any showers dying out this evening with clear spells allowing a frost for a time. Becoming cloudy overnight with sleet, snow, easterly winds, reaching Southwest and Borders. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Tomorrow (Thursday):

Sleet or snow in morning, early afternoon, east coast rain, with strong northeast winds. Possibly disruptive snow high ground in south. Becoming drier in afternoon with some sunshine, winds easing. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Heavy rain arriving on Friday, thaw, clearing to scattered showers. Windy. Dry start Saturday then more heavy rain, windy again. Sunshine, showers Sunday with gales or severe gales.

Storm Dennis to bring heavy rain and gales

Named by the Met Office, the impacts from this low-pressure system are not expected to be as extreme as Storm Ciara but will bring widespread strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the UK.

The system will develop in the North Atlantic before tracking eastwards towards the UK and Ireland over the coming days, passing to the north of Scotland on Saturday. A National Severe Weather Warning for wind has been issued for much of England and Wales, further warnings are likely to be issued in the coming days.

Steve Ramsdale, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said: “Another spell of very wet and windy weather is expected for Saturday, although Storm Dennis is currently not expected to be as severe as Ciara disruption is still likely.

“Our confidence in the forecast means we have been able to issue severe weather warnings well in advance, giving people time to prepare for potential impacts of the storm.

“With further warnings possible over the next few days people should keep up to date with the Met Office forecast using our website, app or by following us on social media.”

Over the weekend wind gusts will widely reach in excess of 50mph, even across some inland areas, with gusts of over 60mph possible over hills, coastal areas and exposed locations.

While these winds have the potential to bring impacts they are not as strong as the gusts we saw last weekend with Storm Ciara when a gust of 97mph was recorded on the Isle of Wight.

Heavy rain is also expected with the storm and with already saturated ground there is a risk of further flooding. Storm Dennis is expected to bring a range of impacts, including delays and cancellations to transport services, damage to power supplies and large coastal waves.

The weather this week, ahead of Storm Dennis, remains unsettled. North westerly winds are bringing cold air across the UK and the north of England and Scotland will continue to see some snow, mainly on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Winds remain strong with sunny, dry spells expected in places especially in the east.

You can get the most accurate and up to date forecast for your area using the Met Office forecast pages and by following them on Twitter and Facebook, as well as using the mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store. 

Met Office weather warning remains in place

YELLOW WARNING – Wind and Snow

Queensferry Crossing remains CLOSED

Headline:

Windy and feeling bitterly cold. Showers of rain, sleet, snow.

Today:

Frequent showers of rain, sleet, snow, carried on strong to gale westerly winds, making for a bitterly cold day. Snow accumulating away from lowest levels, with drifting adding to potentially hazardous travel conditions, also wet snow sporadically reaching sea level. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Tonight:

More of the same with wintry showers and strong to gale westerly winds. However showers tending to ease a touch from the south towards dawn. Minimum temperature -1 °C.