Scottish Flood Forecasting Service – The NEN

Wetter autumn outlook puts Scotland’s flood risk in focus

People across Scotland are being encouraged to prepare and be aware by understanding the information available to them as the latest seasonal outlook points to an increased likelihood of wetter and more unsettled conditions later this autumn and into early winter.

The current El Niño is now the strongest in the observational record and increases the chances of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK. But El Niño is only one influence on our weather and cannot tell us exactly when or where severe weather or flooding will happen.

That uncertainty makes it important to understand flood risk before severe weather arrives, know where to look for information and think about how flooding could affect the places that matter to you.

As Scotland’s flood warning authority, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is highlighting the practical steps people can take to prepare and be aware, alongside the network of monitoring, science and specialist expertise behind Scotland’s flood information.

Across Scotland, SEPA monitors water levels at 392 locations and operates more than 280 automated rain gauges. Many are small pieces of infrastructure people may pass without ever knowing what they are, but the information they collect helps specialists understand changing conditions and contributes to Scotland’s flood forecasting services.

Eleanore Cooper, SEPA’s Head of Environmental Forecasting, Warning and Informing, said: “Being prepared means knowing your flood risk and looking ahead. Being aware means understanding what information is available, what different flood messages mean and where to find the latest information when conditions change.

“Flooding doesn’t have to come through your own front door to affect you. That’s why we encourage people to think about the places that matter. It could disrupt the road you use to get to work, your workplace, local services you rely on or somewhere friends or family live.”

Prepare: know your risk and look ahead

When unsettled weather is approaching, the Scottish Flood Forecast provides a three-day outlook showing where flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea may occur and the potential impacts.

Produced by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, a partnership between SEPA and the Met Office, the forecast is updated every day.

Be aware: know what information is available

Different sources of flood information are designed to do different jobs.

Regional Flood Alerts provide early information when flooding is possible across a wider area and can cover flooding from rivers, the coast or surface water.

Local Flood Warnings provide more targeted information when flooding is expected in defined communities where SEPA has the monitoring and forecasting capability to provide them.

People can register with Floodline to receive Flood Alert and Warning messages for the areas that matter to them and get information sent directly to them. That can include where they live, work or regularly travel through, as well as areas where friends or family live.

Eleanore added: “No single source tells you everything about flood risk because they are designed to do different things.

“The Scottish Flood Forecast helps you look ahead to what is expected over the next few days. Flood Alerts give early information across a wider area, while local Flood Warnings provide more targeted information where that service is available.

Knowing what’s available and how those different sources work together means you are better prepared when conditions change.

“And Floodline isn’t just about your home address. You can keep an eye on the places that matter to you, whether that’s your workplace, somewhere you regularly travel through or where someone you care about lives.”

People should also continue to follow weather forecasts and warnings issued by the Met Office, particularly during periods of heavy or persistent rain.

The science behind the information

Behind Scotland’s flood information is a network of monitoring, forecasting and specialist expertise that most people never see.

At river gauging stations across the country, equipment continually monitors changing water levels. SEPA teams also make physical measurements to understand the relationship between the level of a river and the amount of water flowing through it.

Because rivers and channels change over time, equipment and measurements are regularly checked to make sure the information remains reliable.

That information is brought together with data from SEPA’s rain gauge network, weather forecasts, computer modelling and specialist judgement to help flood forecasters understand how conditions are developing.

Bruce Campbell, SEPA Hydrometry National Team Manager, said: “People can pass one of our gauging stations without ever knowing what it is or what it is doing. But sites like these across Scotland are essential so we can continually monitor what our rivers are doing.

“The equipment is one part of a much bigger system. Our teams maintain the monitoring network, take measurements and check the data, which is then used alongside rainfall information, weather forecasts, modelling and the expertise of our flood forecasting colleagues.

“All of that work happening behind the scenes helps us build the best possible picture of developing flood risk and provides useful information to communities and first responders across Scotland.”

The same forecasting expertise also supports Scotland’s emergency preparedness. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service produces a daily Flood Guidance Statement for Category 1 and Category 2 responders, helping local authorities, emergency services and other organisations prepare for and respond to potential flooding.

People can view the Scottish Flood Forecast, current Flood Alerts and Warnings and register for Floodline through SEPA’s website at sepa.org.uk/flooding

PICTURES: River Tweed monitoring at Peebles

SEPA seeks feedback on new three-day flood forecast

Members of the public are being asked for their feedback on a new Scottish Flood Forecast, which will give communities an indication of where flooding is likely to occur in Scotland up to three days in advance.

A digital, colour coded map has been developed to show potential flood risks for the three days following the publication date of the map, and whether the source of flooding is from the sea, rivers or from surface water.

It will describe the potential impacts of flooding and link to advice and information on what protective action people can take if required. The map will also provide reassurance to communities when significant flooding is not expected.

The forecast will be produced every morning, 365 days a year, and published on SEPA’s website. It is an additional tool for the public to use alongside the current Floodline service, which issues shorter notice regional flood alerts and local flood warnings to those signed up, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, a partnership between the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office, has created the new Scottish Flood Forecast following extensive user research.

It involved the public, community flood groups, emergency responders, partner organisations and SEPA and Met Office employees. The findings identified a need for flood information to be provided earlier, in a simple and clear way, and the ability to check when no flooding is expected.

The new national service can be viewed online from Thursday 12 May 2022 and is the first step on the journey to providing communities with improved flood information. Feedback from the public will be gathered to inform the next steps and refine the design. The forecast is expected to be finalised and launched later this year.

Pascal Lardet, Flood Warning Unit Manager at SEPA, said: “More extreme weather and rising sea levels due to climate change mean we have to learn to live with flooding.

“It’s vital communities are supported to safely prepare for the potential impacts as early as possible. Thanks to this new product and the extra notice it offers, they’ll have the best chance to reduce the risk of damage and disruption.

“The three-day Scottish Flood Forecast is the biggest change to our flood warning service since it began in 2011. We have listened to customers to ensure we are creating a product that will help them prepare for flooding at the earliest opportunity.

“We will continue to engage and capture customer feedback during the initial pilot period before launching the final version of the Scottish Flood Forecast expected later this year. I would like to take the opportunity to thank the Scottish Flood Forum and the communities at risk of flooding who have already helped to develop this service so far.”

Mark Gibbs, Head of Environment and Energy at the Met Office said: “We have worked in partnership with SEPA to develop the Scottish Flood Forecast which embodies our ethos at the Met Office to help people stay safe and thrive.

“This is becoming increasingly challenging as climate change impacts threaten to affect communities across Scotland and the risks from flooding increase. The Met Office are continually working on improvements to forecasting which feed into the Scottish Flood Forecast.

“During this pilot period we look forward to hearing the views and opinions from communities throughout Scotland to create an improved final version.”

The Scottish Flood Forecast will be available and tested on:

www.sepa.org.uk/scottishfloodforecast.

A link will be available on this page for members of the public to submit any feedback.

Scottish Flood Forecasting Service marks 10th Anniversary

The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) is today marking a decade of supporting the nation’s preparedness and response to flooding.

Staffed around the clock 365 days a year, the service has been combining hydrological and meteorological data to provide strengthened flood forecasting for Scotland over the last 10 years, and is a close partnership between The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office.

Its team of experts across Scotland has delivered more than 3800 national flood guidance statements. These five day forecasts are issued daily to a range of 230 organisations including emergency services and local authorities, helping emergency responders prepare in advance for the impacts of flooding.

Climate change is likely to bring increased risk of coastal, river and surface water flooding. With sea level rise and more extreme weather, including wetter winters, more intense rainfall and thundery weather in summer, the increasing importance of the service to help Scotland prepare and adapt is clear.

The service has played a critical role in forecasting impacts from some of the most significant weather events of the decade, including storms Desmond and Frank in 2015. These saw SEPA issue its first severe Flood Warning since the formation of the SFFS, and its highest number of Flood Warnings in one day (101 warnings) respectively.

Terry A’Hearn, SEPA CEO, said: “Over the last ten years, the SFFS has proved a vital service to help Scotland prepare in advance for the worst impacts of flooding. Preparation is crucial, as we saw in the last fortnight when towns from Aberdeenshire to the Scottish Borders flooded.

“The threat from flooding is real and growing. As well as posing a risk to properties, infrastructure and our environment, it can pose a serious threat to life. We and our partners at the Met Office, together with flood management authorities, community responders and communities themselves all have key roles to play as Scotland learns to live safely with flooding.”

Over the last 10 years, the Met Office has made continual improvements to the radar network and other weather technology. This enables the SFFS to issue more detailed daily flood guidance, with ever increasing lead-time and confidence.

Met Office Chief Executive Professor Penny Endersby said: “Climate change is not only resulting in a warming climate but also more intense rainfall which has a crucial bearing on the SFFS’s operations. The risk and impacts of flooding are likely to increase over the coming years, meaning we will need to continue to adapt our services.

“Forecasting skills are constantly evolving and developing thanks to world leading, cutting-edge science and technology and as we look to the future it is clear that we will need to continue to work together if we are to ensure that Scotland will continue to stay safe and thrive.”

The service was also recognised by the Royal Meteorological Society for its pioneering work to provide the UK’s first operational 24-hour surface water flood risk forecast during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.

Showing street-level surface water predictions for the first time, the project was the result of joint research with Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters, CREW, and has helped improve understand of flooding that doesn’t arise from rivers or the sea.

The launch of the SFFS in March 2011 was supported by the Scottish Government.

Kenny Wratten, Chair of the Local Authorities Resilience Group Scotland, said: “Getting that five day forecast of flooding every morning from SFFS helps councils plan and deliver flood mitigation and response.

“The earlier we get an indication of what’s expected and where, the better we and other responders can gear up to make best use of available resource in areas we know are most likely to be affected.

“For councils this might include extra maintenance in trouble spots, considering road closures, the deployment of flood protection measures, and making arrangements to assist people. More than anything it’s about working together using best knowledge to support our communities.”

Paul Laidlaw, Resilience Manager for the Scottish Flood Forum said: “Services from the SFFS are invaluable to the Scottish Flood Forum (SFF), as they help us to work with communities to build actions that help them prepare for flooding.

“The Flood Guidance Statement in particular helps us and other recognised community responders get enough of a heads-up to prepare where flood recovery resources may need to be deployed, to help those impacted.

“It also provides an excellent learning tool for us to help communities develop flood plans and response exercises, which alongside SEPA Flood Warning messages helps them better avoid, reduce or prevent damages that all too often can leave physical and psychological scars.”

In addition to the five-day flood forecast shared with emergency responders and those with flood-risk management duties, plans are also in progress for a public-facing three-day flood forecasting product, being developed in consultation with the public.

SEPA is Scotland’s national flood forecasting, flood warning and strategic flood risk management authority. As well as working in partnership with the Met Office to forecast for flooding, it operates Floodline in Scotland to warn the public and emergency responders when flooding is likely.

It issues regional Flood Alerts – early advice that flooding is possible – across wide geographical areas covering the length and breadth of Scotland. It also issues local Flood Warnings in areas where it has developed river system monitoring and flood risk impact knowledge. These warnings are issued at shorter notice when it is more certain that a specific area will be affected.

Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Flooding, added: “There are some simple steps you can take to help prepare for flooding, including signing up to Floodline, preparing a flood plan, familiarising yourself with how to shut off energy and water supplies, having key contact numbers to hand and considering the use of flood protection products.

“And when flooding does strike, remember these five important tips;

Do not walk, drive or swim through flood water.
Do avoid any form of direct contact with flood water as it could be contaminated.
Do not use any electrical appliances.
Do move to higher ground and wait for the emergency services to find you.
Do co-operate with emergency services and your local authority who are responsible for co-ordinating relief measures.”

Further advice can be found at floodlinescotland.org.uk.

SEPA’s river level data webpages restored

Members of the public can access river level data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) for the first time since the cyber-attack on 24 December.

The data has remained available to SEPA staff ensuring delivery of nationally important flood forecasting, including Flood Alerts and Warnings, continued throughout. What was not possible was displaying the same information on public web pages.

SEPA’s river gauging network consists of over 350 sites. While between 10 and 15 percent of stations are not displaying data at present, work to bring these back online is progressing and new sites are being added every day. The page is available at sepa.org.uk/waterlevels.

Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Hydrology, said: “We appreciate how valuable our river level data is, from those planning leisure activities to people looking for additional information during flooding.

“Flood Alerts and Warnings are always the most up-to-date information, but when river levels are very high and warnings are out we know residents use the site to see whether levels upstream are continuing to rise or have started to fall.

“Since the cyber-attack on Christmas Eve our staff have worked as quickly as possible to restore public access, and this is an important step in the restoration of information that we know people use.”

The river level service will still be subject to intermittent interruptions as additional work continues in the background but these will be kept to a minimum as much as possible.

The data download facility, rainfall web pages and historical river and rainfall data are not yet available.

SEPA is working to restore these services as quickly as possible and will continue to provide updates through its weekly service status updates published every Friday at at sepa.org.uk/servicestatus.