UK Covid-19 Inquiry is under way

The UK Covid-19 Inquiry began hearing evidence for its first investigation into the UK’s preparedness and resilience for a pandemic this morning (Tuesday 13 June 2023) at 10:00.

These public hearings are when the Chair, Baroness Heather Hallett, begins formally listening to evidence. Six weeks of hearings are planned for Module 1, which will run until Thursday 20 July.

The hearing opened with a statement from the Chair, followed by a short film showing the impact of the pandemic, featuring people from across the UK, sharing their experiences of loss.

The voices of some of those who suffered most during the pandemic are heard through the film. Some people may find the film difficult to watch.

This was followed by opening statements from Core Participants to the first investigation. The Inquiry then heard testimony from first witnesses.

timetable for witnesses for the first week of hearings is available.

The hearings are open to the public and will be held at the Inquiry’s hearing centre, Dorland House, 121 Westbourne Terrace, London, W2 6BU. Seating at the hearing centre is limited and will be reserved on a first come first served basis.

The hearings will also be available to view on our YouTube channel, subject to a three minute delay.

The Inquiry is expected to last three years.

The first four panels of the UK Covid Inquiry’s commemorative tapestry have been unveiled at the Inquiry’s hearing centre in Dorland House.

The tapestry hopes to capture the experiences and emotions of people across the UK during the pandemic, helping to ensure that people who suffered hardship and loss remain at the heart of the Inquiry.

The panels are inspired by the experiences of organisations and individuals from across the UK.

Each panel is based on an illustration by a different artist, following conversations with individuals and communities impacted in different ways by the pandemic.

“Broken Hearts” is a collaboration between artist Andrew Crummy and the Scottish Covid Bereaved group, one of the Inquiry’s Core Participants, and expresses the grief and sadness felt by so many at the loss of loved ones.

“Little Comfort” was created by Daniel Freaker, and is his interpretation of some of the emotions and experiences of those with Long Covid, following conversations with members of several Long Covid support and advocacy organisations.

“Eyes Forced Shut” was created by Catherine Chinatree. It explores the disempowerment and loss of freedoms experienced by patients and their relatives in care homes, and follows conversations between the artist and members of Care Campaign for the Vulnerable.

“The Important Thing Is That You Care” was created by artist Marie Jones, following a series of conversations with a bereaved individual in Wales, grieving the loss of her father.

Broken Hearts tapestry panelLittle Comfort tapestry panelEyes Forced Shut tapestry panelThe Important Thing Is That You Care tapestry panel

Last month, the Inquiry announced that renowned art curator Ekow Eshun had been appointed to oversee the first phase of the project, with further panels to be developed over the coming months.

The Inquiry will be sharing further information about each of the panels, including from the artists, and those whose experiences helped shape the artwork, and the digital version of the tapestry will be available next month.

The tapestry will also be shown in different locations throughout the UK whilst the Inquiry’s work is ongoing. We plan to add more panels over time, so this tapestry reflects the scale and impact the pandemic had on different communities.

The UK Covid Inquiry’s commemorative tapestry is one of a growing number of sculptures, creative installations, and community initiatives being developed as the county (and the world) comes to terms with the enormity of the pandemic and its effect on the lives of countless millions of people. Each of these projects brings a unique perspective and adds a powerful new layer of value to the richness of our collective memory.

Organisations interested in getting involved in the project are invited to contact engagement@covid19.public-inquiry.uk.

TUC: Inquiry must examine how “unchecked growth” of insecure work left millions vulnerable to the virus

  • NEW ANALYSIS: numbers in insecure work grew by a fifth in the decade preceding the pandemic – with half a million more in insecure work by the end of the decade
  • Insecure workers were TWICE as likely to die from Covid-19 during the pandemic
  • TUC says Tory failure on workers’ rights had devastating consequences for workers

The TUC has today (Monday) called on the Covid public inquiry to look at how the “unchecked growth” of insecure work left millions of low-paid and frontline workers vulnerable to the pandemic.

New analysis by the TUC shows that between 2011 and the end of 2019, the number of people in insecure work grew by a fifth – with half a million more in insecure jobs by the end of the decade.

In 2011, the numbers in insecure work were 3.2 million. By the end of the decade, the numbers were 3.7 million.

This growth is disproportionate compared to the growth of the labour market in this period (the proportion of those in insecure work grew from 10.7% to 11.2%).

The call by the union body comes as the Covid public inquiry prepares to take witness evidence from Tuesday 13 June.  

Higher mortality rates

TUC analysis during the pandemic showed that those in insecure occupations faced mortality rates which were twice as high as those in more secure jobs.

The analysis showed that:

  • The Covid-19 male mortality rate in insecure occupations was 51 per 100,000 people aged 20-64, compared to 24 per 100,000 people in less insecure occupations.
  • The Covid-19 female mortality rate in insecure occupations was 25 per 100,000 people, compared to 13 per 100,000 in less insecure occupations.

BME and low-paid workers “forced to shoulder most risk”

The TUC says workers in insecure jobs were forced to shoulder more risk of infection during this pandemic, while facing the “triple whammy” of a lack of sick pay, fewer rights and endemic low pay.

TUC polling from 2022 showed that three in four (76%) in insecure jobs get the “miserly” statutory sick pay, or nothing, when off sick.

Insecure workers are markedly less likely to benefit from the full range of employment rights that permanent, more secure workers are entitled to, including vital safeguards such as unfair dismissal and redundancy protections.

Sectors such as care, leisure, and the elementary occupations have high rates of insecure work – compared to managerial, professional and admin sectors which have some of the lowest.

Those in insecure occupations largely continued to work outside the home during the pandemic – and many were key workers.

A government study suggested that agency workers at care homes – often employed on zero-hours contracts – unwittingly spread the infection as the pandemic grew.

During the pandemic, insecure workers accounted for one in nine workers – with women, disabled workers and BME workers more likely to be in precarious work.

Recent TUC research showed BME women are twice as likely to be on zero-hours contracts as white men.

Dismal record on workers’ rights

The TUC says that the government’s record on workers’ rights has been dismal.

Instead of “getting a grip of insecure work” as it grew from 2010 onwards, the Conservative government “let it flourish on their watch”.

This was despite government promises to boost employment rights.

The Taylor Review reported on 11 July 2017, promising “good work for all”. However, the following years have seen few of the review’s proposals implemented.

And since the pandemic, ministers have failed to learn lessons – instead repeating the same mistakes.

Ministers ditched the long-promised employment bill – and they are now backsliding on promised protections for workers from sexual harassment, as well as attacking workers’ right to strike.

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “The Covid public inquiry must look at how the unchecked growth of insecure work left millions vulnerable to the pandemic.

“Ministers let insecure work flourish on their watch – instead of clamping down on the worst employment practices.

“That failure had devastating – and even fatal – consequences for workers.

“Those in insecure work faced markedly higher Covid infections and death rates. And they were hit by a triple whammy of endemic low pay, few workplace rights and low or no sick pay.

“Lots of them were the key workers we all applauded – like care workers, delivery drivers and coronavirus testing staff.

“For years ministers promised working people improved rights and protections. But they repeatedly failed to deliver.

“It’s time for the government to learn the lessons of the pandemic and stamp out the scourge of insecure work for good.”

On the Conservative government refusing to hand over unredacted evidence to the inquiry Paul added: “Ministers seem more interested in playing political games than learning lessons from the pandemic.

“It’s time they fully cooperated with the inquiry and stopped dragging their feet.”

Royal Bank of Scotland: October report on jobs

Renewed downturn in permanent placements during October

  • Permanent placements fall amid growing economic uncertainty
  • Temp billings decline for first time in 26 months
  • Pay pressures soften, but remain strong overall

Hiring activity across Scotland fell into decline during October, with both permanent staff appointments and temporary billings contracting, according to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs survey.

Permanent placements have now fallen in two of the past three months, while the downturn in temp billings was the first seen since August 2020. Moreover, the rates of contraction were strong overall amid reports of growing economic uncertainty, softening demand conditions and the deepening cost of living crisis.

October data also revealed further increases in starting salaries and temp wages. However, rates of inflation continued to ease, signalling a mild waning of pressure on pay.

Permanent staff placements fall solidly

October data highlighted a fall in permanent staff placements across Scotland. After a month of growth in September, the respective seasonally adjusted index reverted below the neutral 50.0 threshold to signal the second reduction in three months.

The rate of contraction was the fastest seen in nearly two years and solid, with recruiters often linking the fall to growing economic uncertainty and the cost of living crisis.

At the UK level, a fall in permanent staff hires was also noted, with the rate of decline similar to that seen in Scotland.

Scottish recruitment consultancies signalled a reduction in temp billings during October, thereby ending a 25-month run of expansion. The rate of contraction was the quickest seen since July 2020 during the initial wave of the pandemic and strong overall. According to panellists, the latest fall was driven by reduced activity at clients. 

Across the UK as a whole, temp billings were broadly stagnant after rising in each of the prior 26 months.

Downturn in permanent staff supply fastest in three months

Recruiters across Scotland noted a twenty-first successive monthly fall in permanent candidate availability during October. The pace of decline quickened on the month and was marked overall. Panellists generally linked the latest downturn to skill shortages and increased hesitancy to seek out new roles due to rising economic uncertainty.

The pace of reduction across Scotland was more rapid than that recorded for the UK as a whole.

The supply of temp labour across Scotland fell again during October. Despite being severe overall, the rate of decline was the second-slowest in seven months (after September). Recruiters highlighted a lack of European workers and ongoing skill shortages as factors constraining supply.

As has been the case for the last seven months, the rate of contraction in temp staff availability in Scotland was sharper than that seen at the UK level.

Starting salary inflation softens further in October

Latest survey data indicated that average starting salaries for permanent staff in Scotland increased at the slowest pace since June 2021 during October. That said, the pace of wage inflation remained elevated in comparison to the historical average. According to anecdotal evidence, skill and candidate shortages continued to drive up rates of pay.

Data for the UK as a whole also signalled a softer rise in starting salaries during October. Moreover, the pace of inflation was softer than that seen for Scotland for the first time in four months.

As has been the case for the past 23 months, temp wages rose across Scotland during October. While the respective seasonally adjusted index hit an 18-month low, it signalled a sharp rise overall. Greater competition for scarce candidates was cited as a key driver of the latest increase in temp pay.

At the national level, wages also increased at a much slower rate during October. However, the rate of inflation was quicker than that registered in Scotland.

Demand for permanent staff expands at slowest pace in 20 months

Demand for permanent staff grew sharply during October, thereby extending the current period of expansion to 21 months. However, the respective seasonally adjusted index fell for the sixth month running, with the latest reading edging down to a 20-month low.

Across the monitored job categories, IT & Computing registered the steepest rate of expansion, followed by Nursing/Medical/Care.

Recruiters across Scotland noted a twenty-fifth successive monthly rise in temp staff demand during October. While the rate of growth was the weakest since February 2021, it was quicker than that seen across the UK as a whole.

At the sector level, IT & Computing saw the quickest growth in short-term vacancies, followed by Accounts & Financial.

Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, commented: “Labour market conditions across Scotland deteriorated in October, as for the first time since August 2020, both permanent placements and temporary billings contracted.

“At the same time, rates of vacancy growth for both permanent and short-term staff continued to ease. Candidate and skill shortages meanwhile stretched the supply of labour thin, with recruiters also noting that increased economic uncertainty had impacted candidate numbers. Though it does seem that market imbalances are becoming less pronounced, the effect on pay remains strong.

“The data therefore suggest that growing uncertainty about the economy and the cost of living crisis are already affecting the labour market, and could weigh further on hiring decisions for the remainder of the final quarter of 2022.”

Fraser of Allander Weekly Update: Inflation reaches double figures …

… and a look ahead to a big day in the Scottish statistical calendar

This week saw the publication of two pieces of key economic news: firstly on the labour market and secondly the latest inflation data (writes Fraser of Allander Director MAIRI SPOWAGE) . To some extent, the figures were not surprising and were broadly what we were expecting.

Labour Market

New labour market data from the Office for National Statistics were released on Tuesday covering the period until the end of June 2022.

These data show that the Scottish unemployment rate remained stable at 3.2%, with the employment rate dipping slightly (-0.1%-point) to 75.4%. The rate of economic inactivity rose slightly to 22.0% (+0.1%-point) compared to the previous 3 months.

UK-wide data on employees’ pay shows that average total pay (including bonuses) over the past year was 5.1%, while over the same period the growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.7%.

Adjusted for inflation, this means that total pay fell by 2.5% and regular pay fell by 3.0% over the year.

So, the tight labour market conditions are continuing. Interestingly, the latest vacancy data shows a slight fall in the number of vacancies in the latest period, although there is still almost 1.3 million vacancies across the UK.

Inflation

The labour market data was followed on Wednesday by the July inflation data. This showed that Consumer Price Inflation had reached 10.1% in July, yet another 40-year high for the measure. It doesn’t have to go much higher to breach the high in 1982 of around 11%.

The main drivers of this, compared to last month, are increases in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices – with an annual inflation rate of 12.7% for this class of goods.

Energy and fuel prices are of course contributing significantly to the annual inflation rate. Despite us all noticing that petrol and diesel prices have fallen back in the latter part of July, the average price in July was still higher than the average price in June; the level of fuel price in July 2022 was 47% higher than July 2021.

We have consistently discussed that these price rises are likely to be experienced differently by different groups of the population. ONS produce consistent measures of inflation experienced by different household groups, including by income.

Chart: Annual Inflation to June 2022 by income quintile (CPIH consistent)
Chart shows that inflation is much higher for those in the lowest income quintiles

Source: ONS

As we might expect, the data shows that those on the lowest incomes are likely to be experiencing the highest levels of inflation. Look out for more analysis of this really interesting dataset in our next Economic Commentary: or, alternatively, go here if you want to analyse it yourself.

And finally… take a deep breath and get ready for GERS 2022!

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) is coming!! In late August each year, the Scottish Government releases these statistics to much amassed excitement from political commentators and fans of economic statistics.

These statistics are released next Wednesday. They show estimates of tax revenues raised in Scotland compared to expenditure on behalf of the people of Scotland, and present the balance between these two figures as a net fiscal balance.

We have produced a detailed guide to GERS which goes through the background of the publication and all of the main issues around its production, including some of the odd theories that emerge around it. A couple of years ago, we also produced a podcast which you can enjoy at your leisure.

No doubt, as usual there will be plenty of different interpretations and arguments about what these statistics do, or don’t, mean for Scotland under different visions of its future, particularly given the stage the constitutional debate is currently at.

For the uninitiated, the GERS statistics seem to be pretty unique in terms of the fervour they generate and as with any fuss like that, it’s worth taking a step away to look at the facts for yourself.

We’ll be publishing analysis next week that breaks down some of the key figures to help with that, so stay tuned!