Bleak outlook as a third of firms set to cut jobs over coming months

Results from the British Chamber of Commerce’s Quarterly Recruitment Outlook, in partnership with Totaljobs, reveal the impact Coronavirus has had on the jobs market, with the two organisations calling for further action from government to protect businesses and jobs.

  • 29% of businesses expect to decrease the size of their workforce in the next three months
  • 28% decreased size of workforce in Q2 but 66% kept their workforce constant, reinforcing the success of the Job Retention Scheme
  • The two organisations call for a cut in employer National Insurance Contributions to protect businesses and jobs.

The leading business organisation’s landmark survey, which serves as a barometer of the UK labour market, received 7,400 responses and is the largest of its kind in the UK.

Fieldwork was done prior to the Chancellor’s Summer Statement which announced the Job Retention Bonus, Kickstart Scheme and an Apprenticeship Recovery programme, among other things.

Redundancies expected

29% of businesses expect to decrease the size of their workforce in the next three months before the government’s Job Retention Scheme ends, the highest on record.59% will keep headcount the same and just 12% will look to increase the size of their workforce.

The news comes as businesses across the UK economy announced significant redundancies. The survey found that over the next three months:

  • 18% of micro firms (with fewer than 10 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.
  • 41% of small and medium firms (with 10 to 249 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.
  • 41% of large firms (with over 250 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.

The survey reinforced data from the BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey of the challenging environment business communities across the UK are facing, with record falls in key indicators of business activity, including domestic and export sales, cashflow and investment.

Recruitment

The percentage of businesses attempting to recruit in the previous quarter fell to 25%, the lowest level on record. Of the firms that attempted to recruit, 65% faced recruitment difficulties, particularly for skilled manual/technical or managerial roles.

Success of the Job Retention Scheme

While 28% of respondents decreased their workforce in Q2, two in three firms kept staffing levels constant. This reflects data on the success of the Job Retention Scheme, with the BCC’s Business Impacts Tracker indicating that around 70%of businesses had furloughed a portion of their staff.

Beginnings of recovery?

As lockdown lifts, Totaljobs have seen a 30% month-on-month increase in the number of jobs being advertised on their website for June, with the largest volume posted in IT (20k), logistics (12k) and social care (9k).

There were also month on month increases in sectors benefiting from lockdown easing like retail (+51%), travel (+47%) and hospitality (+23%). Skilled trades also started to see growth compared with previous weeks, with jobs advertised increasing by57%.

Unsurprisingly, applications per vacancy were up across all sectors, reflecting continued rises in candidate activity on the Totaljobs site.

Further action needed

The two organisations have called on the government for further action to limit the damage to the UK labour market, including reducing the overall cost of employment, through a temporary cut in employer National Insurance Contributions and support to upskill and reskill employees as businesses adapt to change.

BCC Co-Executive Director Hannah Essex said: “Our research demonstrates the Chancellor’s focus on protecting, supporting and creating jobs is exactly what’s needed to drive the UK’s economic recovery in the coming months.

“Many businesses are suffering from an historic cash crunch and reduced demand, meaning firms will still face tough decisions despite welcome interventions made in the Summer Statement.

“The government should consider additional support for employers before the Autumn Budget to reduce the overall cost of employment and prevent substantial redundancies.Measures could include a temporary cut in employer National Insurance Contributions and support to upskill and reskill employees as businesses adapt to change.”

Totaljobs CEO Jon Wilson said: “The latest figures from the Quarterly Recruitment Outlook make stark reading, especially when compared to what we had grown accustomed to in previous years. It is clear that business confidence is low, with many being forced to make difficult decisions when it comes to their workforce.

“However, the Chancellor’s summer statement outlined a number of measures that will not only support jobs but help create new roles in the economy and give confidence to businesses trying to plan for the future. The interim cuts in stamp duty and VAT should give the hard-hit housing and hospitality sectors a much-needed boost.

“It’s clear that moving forward, adaptability remains paramount for businesses and people, with upskilling, reskilling and utilising transferable skills all key factors during this recovery period. 

“To protect jobs and further ease the burden facing businesses, we join the British Chambers of Commerce in their call for a cut in employer National Insurance. We also urge the Chancellor to continue to consider the needs of the sectors and demographics most impacted by Covid-19, to protect people’s livelihoods and help the jobs market and wider economy pick up.”

Commenting on the latest employment figures published today (Thursday), which show around 650,000 fewer paid employees since before the pandemic, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:  “There’s a national disaster unfolding, with vacancies at an all-time low and more jobs lost every day, but ministers are watching from the side-lines, instead of saving jobs with targeted support for the hardest-hit sectors like retail, manufacturing and aviation. 

“The more people we have in work, the faster we will work our way out of recession. If the government doesn’t go all out to protect and create jobs, the economic crisis will be longer and harder. 

“We can create jobs by fast-tracking infrastructure projects. This would speed up the delivery of faster broadband, more childcare, green technology, modern transport and housing. And it would create over a million jobs across the UK.” 

You can view the full QRO report at the link below:

BCC QRO Q2 2020

TUC: Chancellor has a chance to prevent ‘devastation of mass employment’

As the Chancellor stands up to make his ‘summer statement’ today, families across the country will be facing up to the possibility of unemployment (writes the TUC’s KATE BELL): 

Yesterday, Pret-a-Manger announced it would be closing 30 shops, with the loss of 1,000 jobs. Last week, to take just one example, Airbus announced the loss of up to 1,700 jobs in the UK. British Airways are ploughing ahead with cuts which could lead to 12,000 job cuts. And the list is getting longer by the day. 

The Chancellor has a chance to prevent the devastation of mass unemployment leading to the situation this country saw in the 1980s – young people left on the scrap heap, lives ruined, and communities decimated. But he needs to act fast and decisively.

Here’s the TUC’s plan for decent jobs:

1. Introduce a real jobs guarantee – offering paid jobs for young people who face unemployment 

We’ve heard that the Chancellor may invest in apprenticeships, or traineeships – unpaid work placements with some training attached. It’s not clear yet whether these will be voluntary, or how the Chancellor expects people to live while they’re undertaking these. The TUC has always opposed mandatory unpaid work placements. And unpaid work experience is no substitute for a real jobs guarantee.

 We want the government to invest in supporting real jobs, paid at least the Real Living Wage, for young people facing the prospect of long-term unemployment. Government funding should support additional jobs in the public and private sector that support regional growth strategies, and provide real benefit, including helping to decarbonise the economy.  

That jobs guarantee must go alongside a rapid redundancy response service and investment in jobcentres. And we desperately need an increase in social security payments to stop those who lose their jobs spiralling into debt.  

2. Invest across the economy to create jobs 

We know the country needs an infrastructure upgrade to help drive productivity, and urgent action to tackle the climate crisis. And after a decade of austerity, our public services are desperately overstretched.

Fixing these problems now can help create the jobs we need. Research for the TUC shows that an £85bn investment in green infrastructure could help create 1.24 million jobs in the next two years, including 500,000 jobs through building and retrofitting social housing, and almost 60,000 jobs in electrifying transport.

And we should support our public services by investing in jobs. There are over 100,000 vacancies in social care, and 100,000 more in the NHS – even before we deliver a better system. Local government saw 100,000 redundancies in the past decade, jobs that are needed now to deliver vital services and help tackle the pandemic.

3. Work with unions and business on new rescue plans for hard hit sectors 

We’ve seen how the pandemic, and the social distancing measures it requires, has hit some types of business harder than others. Aviation and hospitality have been particularly badly affected. Government needs to come together with unions and businesses to design rescue packages for these sectors – including setting out how those plans can be used to deliver better and greener jobs. 

The Job Retention Scheme has done valuable work throughout the crisis in protecting people’s jobs, and is now supporting many people to work part-time. Government should extend it beyond October for businesses that can show they have a viable future but need more time to get back on their feet.

4. Prioritise progress towards equality 

We know unemployment is bad for everyone. But those who already face discrimination in the labour market often see their prospects held back even further.  BME groups faced higher unemployment in the 2008-09 recession, and still have high unemployment rates.

Research shows that during upturns disabled people are the last to gain employment, and during downturns they are first to be made unemployed. With the childcare sector on the brink of collapse, women’s employment prospects face being put back a generation.

The Chancellor needs to prioritise progress towards equality when he sets out his plans. That means tackling the insecure work that leaves BME workers disproportionately having their hours cut or being let go. It means monitoring the impact of employment programmes on different groups.

And it means the Chancellor needs to protect those who can’t work due to the fact they are shielding or have caring responsibilities from being forced out of work by extending the job retention scheme.

Mass unemployment and a new wave of inequality aren’t inevitable. We can build back better. But the Chancellor needs to be bold and act fast. 

Finance Ministers from the devolved administrations are urging the UK Government to ease the financial restrictions imposed on devolved governments so they can better respond to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

Ahead of the Chancellor’s Summer Statement, Kate Forbes, Rebecca Evans and Conor Murphy are calling for assurances that will give them the freedom to switch capital funding to day-to-day revenue and put an end to the arbitrary limits on borrowing. They are also looking for more clarity on details around the forthcoming Spending Review.

Kate Forbes, Scotland’s Cabinet Secretary for Finance (above), said: “The powers we are seeking will enable the Scottish Government to respond to COVID-19 more effectively and reboot our economy. They are relatively limited powers, but would ease some of the immense pressures on our budget and give us more tools to kick-start our recovery.

“At the moment, any extra money spent bolstering services and supporting the economic recovery must be taken from other areas. That creates risks for our essential public services, jobs and businesses. I am therefore calling on the Chancellor to ease these rigid fiscal rules and give us the flexibility we need to properly address the monumental challenges our economy is facing.

“I also want to see greater ambition in the level of investment in our economy. Last week the Scottish Government set out a proposal for an £80 billion UK-wide stimulus package. What is needed at this time of crisis is bold and practical policies that will boost consumption, promote investment and protect jobs.”

Northern Ireland Finance Minister Conor Murphy said: “It is crucial that the devolved administrations are equipped to respond swiftly and effectively to the challenges arising from COVID-19.

“More financial flexibility can help us deal with these challenges and use our budgets to support public services, protect the vulnerable, and deliver an economic recovery.”

Welsh Finance Minister Rebecca Evans said: “Our response to the COVID-19 crisis has been hampered by UK imposed rules that limit our ability to get more resources to the frontline.

“There is no clear rationale for these rules, which undermine good budget management in Wales.

“The Welsh Local Government Association, Wales TUC, FSB Cymru and Institute for Fiscal Studies and, more recently, the Senedd’s Finance Committee, have all made the same calls for change.

“The crisis has made the issue urgent. It’s time for the UK Government to act and provide the flexibility we need to respond and invest in Wales’ recovery.”

Young workers face highest risk of unemployment

  • UK is on the brink of a surge in youth unemployment, warns TUC
  • Government must introduce a job guarantee scheme to prevent the misery of long-term unemployment

New analysis published today by the TUC shows that young workers (aged 25 and under) face the highest risk of unemployment due to the coronavirus crisis.

The analysis compares unemployment risk related to the coronavirus crisis across industrial sectors. And it looks at the age profile of workers in sectors with highest risk.

Sectors at highest risk

Workers in all sectors of the economy face unemployment risks due to the coronavirus crisis and the recession that is expected to follow.

However, two sectors are at much higher risk of losing jobs compared to others: ‘accommodation and food’ and ‘arts, entertainment and recreation’.

Our analysis uses three measures to assess risk: (1) the rate of furloughed workers, (2) the proportion of businesses that have paused or cancelled trading, and (3) the proportion of businesses with turnover falling more than 50%.

These two sectors not only rate the highest for all three measures, they are also in a league of their own, with rates far exceeding the construction sector in third place.

Sector Workforce furloughed Businesses pausing trading Businesses with turnover falling more than 50%
Accommodation and food 83% 74% 62%
Arts, entertainment and recreation 73% 75% 63%
Construction industries 41% 19% 40%
Average for all industries 28% 18% 26%

NB – this table shows selected data from the analysis. For a full table covering all sectors, see the research note.

Young workers

The analysis suggests that, without urgent action, the UK may be on the brink of a surge in youth unemployment.

  • Of 4,352,000 UK workers aged 25 and under, 890,000 work in either accommodation and food, or arts, entertainment and recreation.
  • It means that 20% of workers aged 25 and under work in these two sectors, compared to 6% for workers older than 25.
  • Workers aged 25 and under are therefore three times more likely to work in one of the two sectors where jobs are at greatest risk.

Women workers aged 2 5 and under face the greatest risk of all. They are six times more likely than male workers over 25 to work in the highest risk sector, accommodation and food.

In addition to lay-offs, recessions make it harder for young people seeking to enter the labour market for the first time, as employers hire less. This part explains why youth unemployment tends to be much higher than for other workers following a recession.

UK job vacancies have already fallen 25% compared to this time last year. And the sector with the biggest fall is accommodation and food (42%).

Job guarantee scheme

Research shows that prolonged unemployment when young has negative impacts on later working life. This includes a greater likelihood of further periods of unemployment and work with lower pay.

The TUC is calling for a job guarantee scheme to stop those without work becoming long-term unemployed, with early access to the scheme for young workers.

It would resemble the future jobs fund, which was part of the national recovery plan following the recession in 2008 caused by the private banking crisis. A government evaluation found that, two years after starting the programme, participants were 27% more likely to be in unsubsidised work.

Key features of the TUC’s proposed jobs guarantee scheme:

  • Supports additional jobs that would not otherwise be created by employers
  • Enables work that benefits the UK, such as helping to decarbonise the economy
  • Offers secure contracts of at least six months
  • Pays at least the real living wage
  • Gives training opportunities to help people move into longer-term work
  • Provides guaranteed access to trade union representation

Alongside the job guarantee scheme, the TUC says that government must work with businesses and unions to protect as many jobs as possible. This should include extending the job retention scheme for employers who cannot easily adapt to social distancing.

And ministers should form a national recovery council alongside unions and employers, to design and deliver a recovery plan that protects and creates decent jobs.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “We know it’s a tough road ahead. But the more people there are in work, the faster we can work our way out of recession.

“Our national recovery plan must be centred on jobs – both protecting those we have and creating more.  We need more good jobs in social care, in the green tech that our future depends on, in UK start-ups and in a revitalised manufacturing sector.

“Some industries may need help for longer through the job retention scheme so they can retain staff while they adapt to new safety standards.

“And for those who lose their jobs, the government must set up a job guarantee scheme. Young people in particular can’t be left to the misery of long-term unemployment. And it’s the best value option for the treasury.

“Making sure everyone has a decent job on a fair wage is how to recover faster and build back better.”

Last orders? CAMRA responds to extended lockdown

Responding to the Scottish Government’s strategy to exit lockdown measures, which state that gathering in pubs is likely to be banned or restricted ‘for some time to come’, CAMRA Director for Scotland Sarah Crawford said: “While the Government must follow scientific advice and do what is right to keep people safe, this will undoubtedly be a huge blow for pubs and breweries. 

“The pub and brewing sector was among the first to be hit by the lockdown and it is set to be among the last to get back to normality. One thing many people are looking forward to when all this is over is going down the pub to meet friends and family for a drink.

If the Scottish and UK Governments do not make sure that our local pubs and breweries receive all the financial support that they need to weather this crisis, we risk not having them around at all when all this is over.”

Morrisons thanks staff with threefold increase in bonus for next 12 months

  • Full time colleagues will earn a bonus of £1,050 compared to around £350 average last year
  • The special bonus is the largest for frontline supermarket staff announced in recent weeks

Morrisons is recognising the huge effort by its colleagues who are helping to feed the nation during the coronavirus outbreak by increasing this year’s annual bonus payout threefold from last year.

Morrisons annual colleague bonus will become a ‘thank you’ bonus with the increase lasting for the next 12 months.

Because it will be a percentage of the entire year’s pay, frontline colleagues at Morrisons will see the largest special bonus of those announced over the last few weeks in the supermarket sector.

Morrisons colleagues have worked tirelessly to help meet demand and to thank them they will see these changes to the current bonus scheme:

  • All frontline colleagues will receive a 6% bonus on their earnings for the next 12 months rather than just the next 8-12 weeks
  • The changes represent a bonus payment of £1,050 for a full-time frontline colleague compared to the £351 that would have been paid last year
  • The bonus will be guaranteed in recognition of the effort made by very hard working colleagues
  • It will be paid quarterly so colleagues don’t have to wait until next year to be paid
  • The bonus will continue to be paid as a percentage of actual earnings as per previous years
  • Colleagues who are off sick or are self-isolating will remain eligible
  • Both permanent and temporary colleagues will be eligible in recognition of the thousands of new colleagues who have joined Morrisons in recent weeks.

Clare Grainger, Group People Director said: “Our highly valued colleagues have stood tall amidst the coronavirus pandemic, playing their full part in feeding the nation.

“We want to thank every single one of them for their continued hard work during these unprecedented times by paying a much higher guaranteed bonus for the whole year in recognition of their effort.”

Morrisons frontline salaried managers are also guaranteed to receive a bonus that will be twice their maximum yearly amount in a normal year, again guaranteed and paid quarterly.

The bonus overhaul is the latest change that Morrisons has put in place for its highly valued colleagues.

Previous measures include paying extremely vulnerable and high risk colleagues 12 weeks paid leave to self isolate as well as paying 12 weeks paid leave to colleagues who live with someone who is high risk and extremely vulnerable.

In store, perspex screens have been installed to protect colleagues and customers while paying for groceries at the checkouts and social distancing measures have been introduced.

#ItsMoreThanOurJob

Coronavirus: Jobs to go as Edinburgh Airport scales back

A consolidation plan to ensure that Edinburgh Airport remains open and operational during the coronavirus outbreak has been put into action. The news comes as the airport management enter talks with staff with a view to shedding at least 100 jobs.

Enforced travel bans across the world have resulted in airlines dramatically reducing their schedules to and from Scotland, directly impacting on passenger numbers at the airport.

There was a small drop in passengers in February with 935,455 passengers passing through the airport, which was 0.4% behind February 2019. However, the airport is predicting a period of zero or close to zero passenger demand.

To protect as many jobs possible and ensure the airport is open throughout, the airport will implement a ‘consolidation’ programme which will also form part of a recovery plan to ensure the airport is ready to return to full operations at the end of the outbreak. This plan includes:

  • Terminal consolidation with certain areas closed and the centralisation of operations
  • Deferring expenditure on some capital projects
  • Powering down high consuming energy items like elements of the baggage system and heating and cooling systems on parts of the airport that are closed
  • A number of retailers and food and beverage outlets suspending operations

Gordon Dewar, Chief Executive of Edinburgh Airport said: “This is an unprecedented time not only for the aviation industry but for everyone as we all do what we can to ensure the health of ourselves and of those around us.

“For us, that includes the health of our airport. Our plan is based on keeping the airport open throughout and being there for those people who are still travelling and those staff members who are making that travel possible.

“We’re in a situation which is ever changing and as more countries enforce travel bans or special measures then it stands to reason that airlines will feel that impact and airports then feel that pain too.

“Unfortunately, that is happening now and we are trying to mitigate as best as we can and steer the airport through this situation in preparation for what comes next – and that is the biggest unknown in all of this.

“The airport is a facilitator of many things, that is our main role. Yes, we transport people around the world but it’s what those people bring that is the true value – they are our inward and outward tourists, they are our business leaders, they are our students and lecturers, they are our scientists and researchers. All of these things are important in the wider Scottish economy and we are doing what we can to ensure we are ready to return towards normal when the time comes.”

The airport has welcomed announcements by the UK and Scottish Governments on financial support for the sector through this situation.

Gordon Dewar added: “We welcome the collaboration there has been with both governments at this critical time but we will need continued support to ensure that the aviation industry is able to play its part in the country’s economic recovery.

“Along with other UK airports, we ask both governments to come together and show unity and support with the industry to help us weather this storm and come out of it still standing and ready to move forward again.”

New career opportunities for employees of industries affected by COVID-19

Common Thread Childcare, providers with homes throughout Scotland, anticipate an additional demand for staff in these unprecedented times and ask those – particularly in the hospitality, entertainment and airline industry with ‘customer facing’ backgrounds – to consider supporting the childcare industry and potentially starting a new career.

Job opportunities exists, particularly in Dumfriesshire, the Central Belt and Invernesshire areas.

Common Thread is a Scotland wide organisation offering a stable and caring environment to those who work with some of the most vulnerable young people in Scotland. Common Thread will be offering flexible working hours to ensure those with families are able to support their own needs.

We will be processing applications, interviewing via video calls and conference calls and screening successful applicants in line with Care Inspectorate expectations as quickly as possible. This will be significantly faster than normal and successful applicants are expected to start working within three weeks.

A bonus system will be in place for those who complete a minimum amount of shifts.  Furthermore, these employees will be prioritised for permanent positions as and when they become available.

Nicola Hewitt, Head of HR said, “We have applied for fast tracking for certification to enable new support staff to join our team. Given the rise in restrictions, we fully anticipate that those in our care will require additional support, and let’s all work together to make this happen.”

Those interested in applying, please apply through the link below:

https://commonthreadgroup.com/join-our-team/

Up to 1,000 Swissport jobs at risk following Flybe collapse

GMB, the aviation union, says up to 1,000 Swissport jobs are now at risk – many of which could be saved if other airlines take on regional routes operated by collapsed airline Flybe.

The baggage handling and ground crew jobs are under threat at Birmingham, East Midlands, Cardiff, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Manchester airports following the collapse of Flybe.

Shadow transport minister Karl Turner this week called on the Government to offer assistance not just to Flybe staff, but all plans to the end must be extended to those not employed by Flybe but are nonetheless affected.

Nadine Houghton, GMB National Officer, said: “Up to 1,000 Swissport jobs are now at risk from Flybe’s collapse – that’s on top of thousands more directly employed and in the wider supply chain.

“But many of these can be saved it airlines who’ve shown interest in taking on regional routes put their money where their mouth is, get on and do it.

“The Government needs to do everything in its power to make the transfer of routes and the saving of jobs as easy and painless as possible.”

Edinburgh Leisure seeks swim teachers

Looking for a new challenge and career? Edinburgh Leisure is on the search for qualified swim teachers to join the biggest sports coaching provider in the city. 

Angela McCowan, Aquatics Development Manager at Edinburgh Leisure explained:  “As the biggest provider of sports coaching across the city, we’re looking for individuals from all walks of life, with a passion for swimming, who want to join us and enthuse children with a key life skill.

Flexible hours are on offer, at various locations across Edinburgh. Also on offer is one of the best rewards packages in the business, with generous pension, holidays, and free membership to all of Edinburgh Leisure venues.

Interested individuals should apply on the Edinburgh Leisure jobs portal by Sunday, 8 March 2020 and be available to attend an assessment centre on Monday, 16 March 2020.

To find out more about being a swim teacher with Edinburgh Leisure:

 https://www.edinburghleisure.co.uk/work-with-us/swim-teacher-roles

Recruitment Day in Muirhouse

Full time and part time roles available in branches across Lothian

Next Step Edinburgh are teaming up with Semichem and Scotmid for an open morning in Muirhouse this Friday 21 February.

Store Managers will be on hand to talk to prospective candidates about what it is like to work with them. Full time and part time positions are available and the successful applicants will enjoy training, staff benefits and excellent career prospects.

As the event has been organised by Next Step Edinburgh, there is also additional support available including support with CV writing, interview prep and much more.

The event takes place at 9.30 – 11.30am at Pennywell Resource Centre, 31 – 33 Pennywell Road, EH4 4PJ.

If you can’t make that date then there will be another session on Tue 25 February 9:30am – 11:30am at the Recruitment and Skills Centre (RSC) at Fort Kinnaird Shopping Centre.

All welcome – just come along with your CV.

If you have any questions then please contact 

Next Step on 0300 365 0025 info@communityrenewal.org.uk