Rocketing fuel and energy bills, forecasts of double-digit inflation, and rising interest rates mean misery for many families. And unless there is urgent action from Government, the situation is only going to get worse (writes NASUWT’s Dr.PATRICK ROACH).
Teachers and schools leaders do not need to be reminded of the stark effects of this crisis on their pupils and in their own lives.
They see it every day in their schools and in their classrooms.
Children whose parents find themselves in insecure jobs and are struggling to make ends meet. Many relying on food banks and struggling to pay their bills. Hungry pupils can’t concentrate on their learning and the knock-on effects on behaviour are making a challenging job even more stressful.
Schools are struggling as they find themselves taking on more to try and support children, work which was often supported by local authorities but is no longer provided due to austerity.
Teaching has become even more challenging because of deep cuts to school budgets, the loss of vital support for children and families and a crisis of teacher and headteacher recruitment and retention.
Despite ministers’ promises to protect education, in the last decade education spending has fallen by 10%. And the salaries of teachers has fallen too – across the board, teachers’ pay has been slashed by at least 19% since 2010.
Many teachers are relying on credit cards, overdrafts and some are even using the same foodbanks their pupils’ families rely on as well. Around one in ten teachers work second jobs and many more are worried about their financial situation.
And in addition to the cost of living crisis, there is a wellbeing crisis caused by extreme workload pressures.
However, at the Department for Education, ministers are presiding over a system where teachers and headteachers are at breaking point. Unless action is taken now, a desperate situation is set to become even worse.
Already, one in three student teachers choose not to enter the profession after they’ve qualified because of the stress of the job and 40% of new teachers leave within five years.
The latest data from our own ‘Big Question’ survey found that two-thirds of teachers are seriously considering quitting the profession – citing workload, wellbeing and pay as key reasons.
More headteachers are leaving and fewer and fewer teachers are wanting to take their place.
Perhaps not surprisingly, nine in ten teachers we surveyed report that their job has adversely impacted their mental health in the last year and a disturbing 3% have self-harmed and are experiencing a severe mental health crisis because of the job.
And on top of that we have the growing problem of Long Covid which is a ticking time-bomb in our schools.
As part of our campaign, we’re calling on the Government to recognise that a world-class education system needs highly motivated teachers working in world-class schools and colleges.
To that end, we want to see:
a substantial real-terms pay rise for every teacher,
an enforceable contractual working time limit for teachers,
the right to switch off and disconnect from work at the end of the day and at weekends,
the ending of fire and rehire practices,
banning zero-hours contracts,
equal rights for supply teachers
scrapping the link between performance and teachers’ pay,
and safer workplaces underpinned by safe and respectful working practices.
We will be highlighting these demands at the national demonstration that takes place in London on 18th June, where teachers and workers from across the public and private sectors will be demanding action on the cost of living crisis, a decent pay rise for workers and a better deal for all working people.
It’s time for the Government to understand that the situation needs to change. Teachers are demanding change and so are parents and the general public.
Spread the word: be there on June 18th – join us, join in, and help win a better deal for teachers.
More information about the national demonstration can be found here.
More than half of all cash savers (52%) don’t know what impact inflation will have on the real value of their cash savings over time, while 13% believe inflation will leave them better off
New research from Legal & General1 has found that despite inflation reaching record levels many people in the UK are not aware of its impact on their finances.The findings reveal:
More than half of all cash savers (52%) don’t know what impact inflation will have on the real value of their cash savings over time:
One in 10 (13%) incorrectly believe inflation will leave them better off
13% think the real value of their savings would stay the same
More than a quarter (26%) say they don’t know what impact inflation could have on their cash
Millions of savers (64%, the equivalent of 10.3 million) have taken no action on their savings, despite cash earning next to nothing in interest and inflation rising steeply. In fact, half of all savers (54%) currently keep their money in cash over the long-term.
The total cost of “saver inaction” in such an environment (6% inflation) could amount to £18 billion if this trend continues over the next five years2.
Savers currently have £136 billion sitting in cash ISA accounts on average interest rates of 0.26% per year3.
Legal & General analysis shows the impact of inflation for every £1,000 stashed away:
Inflation rate
Average £ lost overfive years
Time for savingsto halve
National cost of saver inaction overfive years
6%
£243
13 years
£18 bn
7%
£278
11 years
£21 bn
8%
£311
Under 10 years
£23 bn
Source: Legal & General, 2022
Emma Byron, Managing Director, Legal & General Retirement Solutions, said:“Inflation is at its highest rate for three decades and it’s worrying that savers don’t realise its eating away at millions of pounds sitting in low-interest paying accounts.
“Understanding the impact of inflation is crucial to understand how much money you have in real terms. Whilst it is essential to keep some cash in the bank for an emergency fund, savers might want to consider other options to make their money work harder.”
Three ways of protecting your savings from inflation
Tip 1: Work out how much to put aside as an easy-access emergency fund
The Money Helper4 service suggests that you should save for emergencies. As a rule of thumb, you’ll need enough to cover your essential expenses for three months.
You should be ready cover bills like energy, your mortgage, travel and food costs, so should the unexpected happen, you’ll be prepared.
And you’ll know exactly how much money you need to keep in cash (which can be hit by inflation), so you can start saving any extra income in more inflation-proof ways.
Tip 2: Get best the interest rate you can on your savings
Make sure that any cash savings you have are getting the highest interest rate possible.
These days you can switch savings accounts and ISAs relatively easily. But if you do find a higher rate, remember that they can quickly go down.
For example, it’s common for Cash ISAs to offer high rates for the first year. Those rates can drop dramatically after the first year. So always set a reminder to keep an eye on any new savings rates you find. You can find more information on most bank websites and compare interest rates on comparison websites.
Tip 3: Think about investing your money or topping up your pension to beat inflation
It’s important that consumers are aware of the long-term impact of their pension contributions, alongside the compound effects of investing.
So if you can stash your savings away for the long term, think about topping up your pension, or investing in a stocks and shares ISA.
People will understandably be feeling unsure about the future at this moment in time, but the key thing to remember is that investing is for the long term.
With time on your side, you can balance out the ups and downs of market volatility. And if you have an emergency fund, you might well be able to ride out any storms and leave your investments untouched. That’ll give them a chance to go back up in value again.
UP TO £660 PER YEAR COULD BE SLASHED FROM HOUSEHOLD INCOME
In a letter to the chancellor last week, the Bank of England stated that it expected inflation to be “around 8 per cent” this spring. With Universal Credit set to rise by just 3.1 per cent in April, families with children on universal credit now face a real-terms cut of around £660 per year, on average.
This is an increase on Child Poverty Action Group’s original analysis which showed a cut of £570, when inflation was expected to be 7.25 per cent.
The £20 cut to universal credit last October plunged out-of-work benefits to their lowest level in 30 years. Latest analysis shows that the picture for families is going from bad to worse.
Without government action, families will be pulled deeper into poverty. Increasing benefits by anything less than 8 per cent risks pushing those with already stretched budgets past breaking point.
Anti-poverty charities wrote to the Chancellor last weekcalling for a minimum 7% benefits rise:
Prices are rising at the fastest rate in 30 years, and energy bills alone are going to rise by 54% in April. We are all feeling the pinch but the soaring costs of essentials will hurt low-income families, whose budgets are already at breaking point, most.
There has long been a profound mismatch between what those with a low income have, and what they need to get by. Policies such as the benefit cap, the benefit freeze and deductions have left many struggling.
And although benefits will increase by 3.1% in April, inflation is projected to be 7.25% by then. This means a real-terms income cut just six months after the £20 per week cut to universal credit.
Child Poverty Action Group’s analysis shows families’ universal credit will fall in value by £570 per year, on average. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has calculated that 400,000 people could be pulled into poverty by this real-terms cut to benefits.
The government must respond to the scale of the challenge. Prices are rising across the board. Families with children in poverty will face £35 per month in extra energy costs through spring and summer, even after the government’s council tax rebate scheme is factored in. These families also face £26 per month in additional food costs. The pressure isn’t going to ease: energy costs will rise again in October.
A second cut to benefits in six months is unthinkable. The government should increase benefits by at least 7% in April to match inflation, and ensure support for housing costs increases in line with rents. All those struggling, including families affected by the benefit cap, must feel the impact.
Much more is needed for levels of support to reflect what people need to get by, but we urge the government to use the spring statement on 23 March to stop this large gap widening even further. The people we support and represent are struggling, and budgets can’t stretch anymore.
Alison Garnham, Chief Executive, Child Poverty Action Group
Emma Revie, Chief Executive, The Trussell Trust
Graeme Cooke, Director of Evidence and Policy, Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Morgan Wild, Head of Policy, Citizens Advice
Dan Paskins, Director of UK Impact, Save the Children UK
Imran Hussain, Director of Policy and Campaigns, Action for Children
Thomas Lawson, Chief Executive, Turn2us
Sophie Corlett, Director of External Relations, Mind
Dr Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, Chief Executive, Oxfam GB
Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
Eve Byrne, Director of Advocacy, Macmillan Cancer Support
Kamran Mallick, CEO, Disability Rights UK
Katherine Hill, Strategic Project Manager, 4in10 London’s Child Poverty Network
Karen Sweeney, Director of the Women’s Support Network, on behalf of the Women’s Regional Consortium, Northern Ireland
Satwat Rehman, CEO, One Parent Families Scotland
Mark Winstanley, Chief Executive, Rethink Mental Illness
James Taylor, Executive Director of Strategy, Impact and Social Change, Scope
Irene Audain MBE, Chief Executive Scottish, Out of School Care Network
Steve Douglas CBE, CEO, St Mungo’s
Richard Lane, Director of External Affairs, StepChange Debt Charity
Robert Palmer, Executive Director, Tax Justice
Claire Burns, Director, The Centre for Excellence for Children’s Care and Protection (CELCIS)
The Disability Benefits Consortium
Dr. Nick Owen MBE, CEO, The Mighty Creatives
Peter Kelly, Director, The Poverty Alliance
Elaine Downie, Co-ordinator, The Poverty Truth Community
Tim Morfin, Founder and Chief Executive, Transforming Lives for Good (TLG)
UCL Institute of Health Equity
Dr Mary-Ann Stephenson, Director, Women’s Budget Group
Natasha Finlayson OBE, Chief Executive, Working Chance
Claire Reindorp, CEO, Young Women’s Trust
Businesses in Scotland are also calling for the Chancellor to announce new measures to help with rising costs ahead of his Spring Statement tomorrow, according to a recent survey from Bank of Scotland.
As inflation hits the highest levels seen since 1992, over half (55%) of Scottish businesses said that direct help with energy bills and rising costs tops their wish list for the Chancellor. This was followed closely by calls for a reduction in VAT, cited by two-fifths (40%), while almost a quarter of firms (23%) want increased funding to help create new jobs and develop skills.
Rising prices remain a key challenge for business. Almost half (46%) of respondents said they are concerned about having to increase the costs of goods and services and over one in ten (14%) stated that inflation is reducing profitability. Almost one in ten (9%) said rising prices had caused them to worry about having to make staff redundant and a further one in ten (9%) were concerned about not being able to pay their bills.
To help specifically with rising prices Scottish businesses are asking the Chancellor for a VAT reduction (46%), while a third (35%) have called for grants to cover rising energy costs. A further quarter (23%) called for grants to support investment in energy saving measures.
The data comes as businesses face continuing supply chain challenges, which are reducing the availability of stock (40%), causing hikes in freight costs (39%) and disruption through Rules of Origin and VAT requirements from EU suppliers (33%).
Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said:“Rising prices are causing multiple challenges for businesses across Scotland and the pressure from inflation shows no sign of abating in the near-term.
“As we wait for the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, we’ll continue to remain by the side of business in Scotland and support the country’s ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic.”
Responding to the ONS public sector finances statistics for FebruaryChancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak said:“The ongoing uncertainty caused by global shocks means it’s more important than ever to take a responsible approach to the public finances.
“With inflation and interest rates still on the rise, it’s crucial that we don’t allow debt to spiral and burden future generations with further debt.”
“Look at our record, we have supported people – and our fiscal rules mean we have helped households while also investing in the economy for the longer term.”
All will be revealed when the Chancellor delivers his Spring Statement (Budget) at Westminster tomorrow.
58% of firms expect their prices to increase in the next three months, the highest on record. 66% of businesses cited inflation as a concern, also a record high
1 in 4 (27%) firms were worried about rising interest rates, as concerns over rate hikes among manufacturers reach record high
Just under half of firms (45%) reported increased domestic sales in Q4, compared to 47% in Q3
The BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) – the UK’s largest independent survey of business sentiment and a leading indicator of UK GDP growth – has shown the recovery stalled in the fourth quarter, with firms facing unprecedented inflationary pressures.
The survey of almost 5,500 firms showed that some indicators also revealed a continued stagnation in the proportion of firms reporting improved cashflow and increased investment. Inflation is the top issue for firms, while a rise in the interest rate was also a cause for concern for many.
Business activity
45% of respondents overall reported increased domestic sales in Q4, down from 47% in Q3. 16% reported a decrease, unchanged from Q3.
In the services sector, the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales dropped to +26% in Q4, from +31% in Q3.
In the manufacturing sector, the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales was +22% in Q4, down from +28 in Q3.
Prior to the surge in Omicron infections, hotels and catering had been most likely to report increased domestic sales (55%). This represented the beginning of a potential recovery as the sector was also the most likely to report decreased sales throughout the rest of the pandemic.
94% reported decreased sales and cash flow at the start of the pandemic in Q2 2020. Worryingly, a similar decline is now possible in the face of the Omicron variant and the implementation of Plan B which led to new restrictions for some.
Unprecedented Inflationary Pressures
58% of firms expect their prices to increase in the next three months, the highest on record. Only 1% expected a decrease.
The percentage expecting an increase rises dramatically to 77% for production and manufacturing firms, 74% for retailers and wholesalers, 72% for construction firms, and 69% for transport and distribution firms. These are the highest on record.
When asked whether firms were facing pressures to raise prices from the following factors, 94% of manufacturers cited raw materials, 49% cited other overheads, 30% cited pay settlements, and 13% cited finance costs.
When asked what was more of a concern to their business than three months ago, 66% of firms overall cited inflation (compared to 52% in Q3 and 25% in Q4 2020), the highest on record. For production and manufacturing firms, this rises to 75%.
Concerns over higher interest rates rise sharply
The percentage citing interest rates as a concern rose in the quarter. 1 in 4 firms (27%) reported interest rates as a concern, up from 19% in Q3.
The percentage mentioning interest rates as worry among manufacturers stood at 28% in Q4, the highest seen since the metric was first collected in Q4 2009 and up from 21% in Q3.
The percentage citing interest rates a concern among service sector firms stood at 29% in Q4, the highest seen since Q3 2014 and up from 22% in Q3.
Little recovery to Cash Flow
For firms overall, 31% reported an increase to cash flow, while 46% reported no change and 23% reported a decrease.
Given these figures were reported before the full impact of Omicron and the introduction of Plan B, this metric is a cause for concern, as some firms are still struggling to recover from large scale losses incurred since the start of the pandemic.
Most firms still not investing
Investment in plant, machinery, or equipment also continued to flatline in Q4, with 29% overall reporting an increase, while 60% reported no change, and 11% a decline. This was largely unchanged from Q3 and Q2.
Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:“Our latest survey suggests that UK’s economic recovery slowed in the final quarter of 2021 as mounting headwinds increasingly limited the key indicators of activity.
“The persistent weakness in cash flow is troubling because it leaves businesses more exposed to the economic impact of Omicron, rising inflation and potential further restrictions.
“The record rise in price pressures suggests that a substantial inflationary surge is likely in the coming months. Rising raw material costs, higher energy prices and the reversal of the VAT reduction for hospitality are likely to push inflation above 6% by April.
“The notable uptick in concerns over higher interest rates underscores the need for the Bank of England to proceed with caution on further rate rises to avoid undermining confidence and an already fragile recovery.
“The UK economy is starting 2022 facing some key challenges. The renewed reluctance among consumers to spend and staff shortages triggered by Omicron and Plan B may mean that the UK economy contracts in the near term, particularly if more restrictions are needed.
“Rising inflation is likely to limit the UK’s growth prospects this year by eroding consumers’ spending power and squeezing firms’ profit margins and their ability to invest.”
Responding to the findings, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, Shevaun Haviland, said: “Our latest survey paints a challenging picture for the UK economy as we start 2022.
“Many businesses were facing a struggle to improve their cashflow and raise investment even before the Omicron variant surged and Plan B was imposed.
“Supply chain disruption is continuing to persist, inflation is soaring, and rising energy costs are presenting firms with a huge headache.
“With companies now having to grapple with the impact of Omicron and further changes to the rules on imports and exports of goods to the EU, there are significant hurdles for businesses in the months ahead.
“The Government has listened to our previous calls for support, and it must do all it can to steady the ship and steer the economy through these uncertain times. If the current restrictions persist or are tightened further then a more comprehensive support package that matches the scale of any new measures, will need to be put in place.
“The focus must be on creating the best possible environment for businesses to grow and thrive. By supporting firms, they can begin to generate wealth, create jobs and support communities.
“That is by far the best way to sustainably deliver the tax revenue the government needs to support public services and the wider economy.”
2022 is set to the ‘year of the squeeze’, with real wages set to be no higher next Christmas than today, and families face a typical income hit of around £1,200 a year from April as a result of tax rises and soaring energy bills, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today.
The Foundation’s latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook looks ahead to how workers and families will be affected by the big economic shifts in 2022.
It notes that while Omicron is rightly at the forefront of people’s minds at present, it is unlikely to be the defining economic feature of next year as the wave is expected to be relatively short-lived.
Instead, 2022 will be defined as the ‘year of the squeeze’ for family budgets, with inflation set to peak at 6 per cent in Spring 2022 (its highest level since 1992) and pay packets stagnating as a result.
The report notes that real wage growth was flat in October, almost certainly started falling last month, and is unlikely to start growing again until the final quarter of 2022. As a result, real wages are on course to be just 0.1 per cent higher at the end of 2022 than at the start.
By the end of 2024, real wages are set to be £740 a year lower than had the UK’s (already sluggish) pre-pandemic pay growth continued. This shows just how much the Covid-19 crisis has scarred pay packets across Britain, says the Foundation.
The peak of the squeeze will come in April, says the report, which risks being a cost of living catastrophe as energy bills and taxes rise steeply overnight.
The cap on energy bills is expected to rise by around £500 a year. Coupled with a further £100 rise to recoup the costs associated with energy firm failures, this could mean a typical energy bill rising by around £600 a year.
This rise will fall disproportionately on low-income families as they spend far more of their income on energy. The share of income spent on energy bills among the poorest households is set to rise from 8.5 to 12 per cent – three times as high as the share spent by the richest households.
Higher-income families will instead by disproportionately affected by rising tax bills in April. The average combined impact of the freeze to income tax thresholds and the 1.25 per cent increase in personal National Insurance contributions is £600 per household. For families in the top half of the income distribution, the NI rise alone will raise tax bills by £750 on average.
The Foundation says the scale of this April cost of living catastrophe, at a time of falling real wages, means the government is likely to have to act.
While there is little the Chancellor can do in the short-term to tame inflation or boost wage growth, the welcome 6.6 per cent rise in the National Living Wage next April should protect the lowest earners from shrinking pay packets.
The top priority for further action should be tackling rising energy bills, says the Foundation. Options for doing so include:
Reducing the size of the energy cap rise directly. Compensating energy suppliers for a six month, £200 reduction would cost around £2.7 billion, or £450 million if focused on lower-income households on Universal Credit.
Extending the time period over which the costs of supplier failures are recouped, with the £100 bill rise reflecting a policy of recouping costs over a single year.
Moving environmental and social levies currently added to electricity bills into general taxation, saving households £160 per year and costing up £4.5 billion per year.
Extending and increasing the Warm Homes Discount.
Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said:“2022 will begin with Omicron at the forefront of everyone’s minds. But while the economic impact of this new wave is uncertain, it should at least be short-lived. Instead, 2022 will be defined as the ‘year of the squeeze’.
“The overall picture is likely to be one of prices surging and pay packets stagnating. In fact, real wages have already started falling, and are set to go into next Christmas barely higher than they are now.
“The peak of the squeeze will be in April, as families face a £1,200 income hit from soaring energy bills and tax rises. So large is this overnight cost of living catastrophe that it’s hard to see how the Government avoids stepping in.
“Top of the Government’s New Year resolutions should be addressing April’s energy bills hike, particularly for the poorest households who will be hardest hit by rising gas and electricity bills.”
Families on low incomes are facing a worrying winter ahead as today’s figures show inflation has hit 5.1%. The rising cost of utilities are especially challenging given they take up such a large share of low-income families’ budgets.
The Government recently announced that benefits will be uprated by 3.1% in April which will close some of the growing gap between people’s incomes and their costs. However, this does not address the immediate hardship families are experiencing this winter.
In October, the Office for Budget Responsibility projected inflation to peak at 4.4% by April but today’s 5.1% exceeds that level.
New JRF analysis based on OBR forecasts shows that should inflation be 4.4% by next April:
Around 100,000 individuals are at risk of falling into deep poverty (below 50% of median income after housing costs) due to benefit uprating being less than inflation in April
Around 7 in 10 of whom live in households that contain children
Around half live in working households
Given today’s high inflation figures, this could be an underestimate and even more individuals may be at risk of deep poverty.
The outlook is especially stark for people who are out of work and reliant on social security to make ends meet. These families have already experienced a £20-a-week cut to Universal Credit. This also comes after a decade of cuts and freezes to social security which has left the system wholly unable to provide the support millions of people need.
Katie Schmuecker, Deputy Director of Policy & Partnerships at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said:“It is deeply concerning that families on low incomes, who are already struggling to make their budgets stretch, are at risk of being pulled deeper into poverty. Prices are rising sharply and support available to people is inadequate.
“Everyone in our country should be able to afford the basics yet there is no sign of any respite on the horizon for families struggling to keep their heads above water. Too many people who are being hit by rising energy bills and increasing food prices are forced to ask themselves what essentials they will go without this winter.
“In a country like ours, social security should, at a bare minimum, enable people to meet their needs with dignity. Unless the Government urgently strengthens support, we will see more and more people being pulled deeper into poverty and debt in the months ahead. This is not only harmful but also completely avoidable.”
‘The Low Pay Commission should do what it says on the tin – and fight for the low paid’ – GMB General Secretary Paul Kenny
The Low Pay Commission LPC) has recommended to the Government that the adult rate of the National Minimum Wage should rise by 3 per cent to £6.70 from October – but trade union leaders and anti-poverty campaigners argue the increase simply isn’t enough
The LPC’s aim is to advise on a rate that protects as many low-paid workers as possible without damaging jobs or the economy. The Commission says it has carefully weighed the risk of doing too little to raise the earnings of the lowest paid against the risk of recommending more than business and the economy can afford.
With inflation now forecast at 0.5 per cent, this recommendationwould, if accepted by the Government:
be the largest real-terms increase in the NMW since 2007, taking its estimated real value three-quarters of the way back to its highest ever level.
increase the NMW to its highest value relative to other wages. Its bite – the value as a proportion of typical wages – is already at its peak. This would increase it further. Influential in our recommendation has been evidence of strong employment growth in low-paying sectors and firms of all sizes.
expand coverage of the number of jobs covered by the main rate of the minimum wage to an estimate of over 1.4 million (PDF, 1.87MB, 13 pages) . This compares with 900,000 at the start of the downturn in 2008, as the minimum wage has risen in relation to median earnings.
Commenting on the recommendation, David Norgrove, Chair of the LPC said: “Last year we were pleased to recommend the first real terms increase in the value of the minimum wage since the recession. We argued that the minimum wage had proved its worth over the course of the slowdown, increasing relative to earnings generally and protecting the low paid during the downturn in a way not seen before albeit, as with wages for all other workers, its real value fell.
“Sharp increases in the minimum wage would put jobs at risk – not least bearing in mind pressure on low-paying sectors and small firms. We do believe however that the continued recovery, and in particular the impressive growth in employment of the low paid, should this year allow a further increase in the real and relative value of the minimum wage.
“An increase of 3 per cent to £6.70 is a larger real terms increase than last year and, on the basis of the most recent Bank of England inflation forecast, should restore three-quarters of the fall in the real value of the NMW relative to its peak in 2007.
“We judge that the improved economic and labour market conditions mean once again that employers will be able to respond in a way that supports employment. However, our recommendation this year is predicated on a forecast which foresees lower costs for business in fuel and energy, a strong economic performance, significant recovery in earnings across the economy and rising productivity. If these expectations are not borne out over the year we will take this into account when considering next year’s recommendation”.
As well as its recommendation for the adult rate, the Low Pay Commission has also recommended:
an increase of 3.3 per cent to £5.30 in the Youth Development Rate, which applies to 18-20 year olds;
an increase of 2.2 per cent to £3.87 in the 16-17 Year Old Rate;
an increase of 2.6 per cent to £2.80 in the Apprentice Rate, which applies to all apprentices in year one of an apprenticeship, and 16-18 year old apprentices in any year of an apprenticeship;
an increase of 27 pence in the accommodation offset to £5.35. The offset is the one benefit-in-kind that can count towards the minimum wage. This is the maximum daily sum employers who provide accommodation can deduct towards those costs.
However some argue that the increase doesn’t go far enough. The GMB trade union has called on Vince Cable to revise the LPC’s proposal of £6.70 National Minimum Wage from October to make up ground lost during the recession. The GMB says the rate should be at least £6.99 per hour.
Paul Kenny, GMB General Secretary, said “This is a missed opportunity by the Low Pay Commission to uprate the national minimum wage to the real term rate that it was before the recession hit in 2007. Vince Cable should revise the proposal.
“With the economic recovery under way there is no justification for the national minimum wage not going back to where it was in real terms before the recession.
“The Low Pay Commission should have recommended a rate of at least £6.99 per hour from October 2015 to make up the ground lost since the rate was fixed at £5.65 from 1st October 2006 before the recession.
“The Low Pay Commission should do what it says on the tin – and fight for the low paid.
“There has to be a concerted effort to make work pay. If this was done, staff would not need their meagre wages to be topped up by taxpayers with family tax credits and housing benefits so as to make ends meet.
“GMB members tell us that in their experience at least £10 an hour and a full working week is needed to have a decent life free from benefits and tax credits. Less than £10 an hour means just existing not living. It means a life of isolation, unable to socialise. It means a life of constant anxiety over paying bills and of borrowing from friends, family and pay day loan sharks just to make ends meet.”
The Poverty Alliance is spearheading the campaign for a living wage in Scotland.
“The Scottish Living Wage Campaign believes that a job should help you out of poverty, not keep you there.
“The National Minimum Wage is not enough for individuals in Scotland to access the essentials of everyday life. £6.50 per hour will just never be enough to cover the day to day basics, nevermind to save some money or plan for emergencies.
“Hundreds of thousands of workers are being paid wages that basically equate to poverty pay. This is simply not right.”
Brighter outlook for job seekers as unemployment falls again
There have been more indications that economic recovery is gathering pace with the publication of the latest figures by the Office of National Statistics yesterday.
Unemployment has dropped below 7% for the first time since the recession and employment has seen the biggest annual jump in a generation, the latest figures show.
Unemployment fell by 77,000 in the last 3 months, taking the unemployment rate to 6.9% for the first time since 2009.
In the largest annual rise in nearly 25 years, the number of people of people in a job rose by 691,000 – more than double the population of Newcastle – bringing the record number of people in work to 30.39 million.
Wages also rose on the year by 1.7%, against yesterday’s announcement that March’s inflation had dropped to 1.6%, and job vacancies rose again, up 108,000 over the past year bringing the number of vacancies in the UK economy to 611,000.
Minister for Employment Esther McVey said: “More young people are in work, more women are in work, wages are going up, and more and more businesses are hiring – and it’s a credit to them that Britain is working again.
“But there is still more to do – which is why I’d go even further and call on more employers to work with us to tap into the talent pool the UK offers.”
In Scotland, employment levels are at their highest since records began with 2,575,000 people over 16 now employed. The employment level is now 13,000 above its pre-recession peak of 2,562,000 in 2008.
National Statistics also published yesterday by the Scottish Government showed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2 per cent over the fourth quarter of 2013 and increased by 1.6 per cent during 2013, the fastest annual growth since 2007.
The highest employment level record has been met by an increase in employment of 68,000 over the year, driven by an increase of 46,000 in the female employment level. The female rate of employment in Scotland is now 1.8 percentage points above the UK.
Scotland has again outperformed the UK across all headline labour market indicators, with a lower unemployment rate, higher employment rate and lower economic inactivity rate: details not missed by First Minister Alex Salmond.
Although the Scottish unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points over the quarter, over the year it fell by 0.8 percentage points and now stands at 6.5 per cent compared to 6.9 per cent in the UK as a whole.
For the 17th consecutive month the claimant count decreased in Scotland with the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance falling by 2,400 over the month to March.
Welcoming the latest labour market figures, First Minister Alex Salmond said: “Today’s historic jobs figures show the Scottish Government’s policy of investing in infrastructure to boost the economy is making significant progress with employment levels at a record high. To put it in perspective, there are 285,000 more people in employment today than there were when the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999.
“Scotland is outperforming the UK across employment, unemployment and inactivity rates which goes to show even with the limited powers over the economy at our disposal we are improving our country’s economic health.
“Everyone aged between 16 and 19 is guaranteed an offer of a place in training or education through Opportunities for All and just this week we revealed we will create thousands of additional Modern Apprenticeship places, bringing our total target for MA’s to 30,000 every year by 2020 – double the level we inherited in 2007.
“This commitment to equipping our young people with the skills that they need will be further strengthened with the appointment of Angela Constance as Cabinet Secretary for Training, Youth and Female Employment.”
