Lloyds Bank has appointed Jamie Kemp to the role of Invoice Finance Area Director for Scotland and the North East, as it strengthens its support for businesses across the region.
Jamie has over 11 years of experience in the finance sector, with experiencing spanning across retail, private and commercial banking. Over the last 4 years, Jamie has specialised in Invoice Finance and has been recognised by UK Finance as their Top Foundation and Certificate student.
In his latest role, Jamie held the title of Business Planning Manager for the Invoice & Asset Finance Sales division where he was responsible for overseeing and supporting national delivery and performance.
Jamie Kemp commented:“I am delighted to lead a team of highly experienced Invoice Finance professionals to deliver bespoke solutions for small to medium sized enterprises. The current climate is making the cost of operating more and more challenging for businesses.
“I’m looking forward to supporting those businesses based in the North East and Scotland through these challenging times as much as possible in my new role alongside my team.”
Ben Stephenson, the Head of Specialist Client Solutions at Lloyds Bank, added:“We are pleased to welcome Jamie into the role of Invoice Finance Area Director. He brings with him a wealth of banking and finance experience, which will stand him in good stead to excel in this role and provide exceptional service for our clients.”
While starting his new role, Jamie is also hiring for an Invoice Finance Field Sales position (Associate Director level) based in and around Glasgow. The role has been designed to attract enthusiastic and talented individuals which may be new to the Invoice Finance industry.
It offers a substantial period of training, supported by a comprehensive learning plan, which includes undertaking the Invoice Finance Foundation Course, UK Finance’s entry-level qualification. This should ensure that the successful candidate has the best possible start to a career in Invoice Finance.
Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for December 2022 shows:
Business confidence in Scotland fell nine points during December to 15%
Scottish businesses identify top growth opportunities as evolving their offer (36%), investing in their teams (31%) and entering new markets (25%)
Overall UK business confidence rose seven points during the last month to 17%, with eight out of 11 nations and regions reporting a higher reading than November
Business confidence in Scotland fell nine points during December to 15%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.
Companies in Scotland reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down five points at 25%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, down 10 points to 6% this gives a headline confidence reading of 15%.
Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as evolving their offer (36%), investing in their teams (31%) and entering new markets (25%).
The Business Barometer, which surveys 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.
A net balance of 11% of businesses in the region expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up three points on last month.
Overall UK business confidence rose seven points during December to 17%. The proportion of businesses that felt positive about the wider economy was up 10 points month-on-month to 8%, while their outlook on their own future trading prospects increased by two points to 27%. Businesses also remained optimistic about job creation, with 16% of firms planning to hire more staff in the next 12 months – up two points on November.
All UK regions and nations reported a positive confidence reading in December, for the first time since July, with eight out of 11 recording a month-on-month increase in confidence. Of those, the North West (up 31 points to 40%), North East (up 24 points to 34%) and South East (up 23 points to 14%) saw the largest monthly increases, with the North West now the most optimistic overall.
Chris Lawrie, area director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Although business confidence has dipped it’s encouraging to see it remain in positive territory, which is testament to the resilience of the business community here in Scotland.
“After a turbulent few months many companies are now looking at shoring up their investment plans for the year ahead. Those planning to invest in their teams and export into new markets will do well to keep a close eye on cash flow to ensure they’re ready to capitalise on opportunities as they arise.”
The manufacturing sector reversed a six-month trend of falling confidence, with a nine-point rise to 13%. Confidence in construction and services also increased by nine points to 29% and 18% respectively. However, retail confidence fell slightly, by two points to 13%.
Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It’s encouraging to see the confidence of most regions and nations rallying as we end the year. This has been a tough time for businesses with rising costs and much uncertainty, but some firms are becoming more confident as we head in to 2023.
“While wage expectations start to temper, prices continue to rise and keeping a close watch on cash flow remains a priority for businesses, no matter what industry you operate in. For those who are in need of support or are looking for advice, especially into the festive season and new year, at Lloyds Bank we are by your side in times of uncertainty.”
Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence has received a boost in the run up to Christmas as firms anticipate a better festive trading period than last year.
“While firms report being hopeful for a more successful 2023, inflation and the risk of an economic downturn remain the biggest concerns for businesses, with rising costs evidenced by the number of firms expecting to raise prices.
“Wage growth is expected to remain high for now as retaining existing staff and attracting new talent will continue to be priorities for many businesses going into next year.”
Deputy First Minister John Swinney laid out “a different, more progressive path for Scotland” as he presented the Scottish Budget 2023-24.
He promised to strengthen the social contract with the people of Scotland and pledged to do everything possible to shield families from the welfare cuts and austerity policies of the UK Government
Supporting sustainable public services through the cost of living crisis is a priority – including more than £13.7 billion for NHS boards and £2 billion to establish and improve primary healthcare services in communities, as well as £1.7 billion for social care and integration, paving the way for the National Care Service. This record investment goes well beyond any previous commitment to pass on all consequentials to health and social care, and delivers a £1 billion uplift to the health budget.
Having already increased the unique Scottish Child Payment to £25 per week as part of a drive to eradicate child poverty, the Budget invests £428 million to uprate all other devolved benefits in April 2023 by September’s Consumer Price Index inflation level of 10.1%. It commits £20 million to extend the Fuel Insecurity Fund to provide a lifeline for households, including the most vulnerable, against rising energy prices.
Scotland’s transition to net zero is boosted with increased investment to over £366 million in delivering the Heat in Buildings Strategy in 2023-24. This will help tackle fuel poverty as part of a £1.8 billion commitment over this Parliament to improve energy efficiency and decarbonise more than a million Scottish homes by 2030.
The Budget commits £50 million to the Just Transition Fund for the North East and Moray – more than double the 2022-23 allocation – to diversify the regional economy away from carbon-intensive industries and capitalise on the opportunities presented by new, green industries.
Strengthened by the agreement between the Scottish Government and the Scottish Green Party, the 2023-24 Scottish Budget also includes:
around £1 billion investment in high quality early learning and childcare provision, with a further £22 million invested in holiday food provision and expanding support for school-age childcare
£50 million for the Whole Family Wellbeing programme for preventative co-ordinated family support and a further £30 million to keep The Promise to care experienced children and young people
£80 million capital funding to support the expansion of free school meals
going beyond existing commitments with more than £550 million additional funding to Local Government
£165 million additional funding for frontline justice services and to continue with transformational reforms
a £46 million increase in resource funding to universities and colleges to ensure a highly qualified and highly skilled workforce for Scotland
Mr Swinney said: “The Scottish Government, like governments all over the world, is faced with a difficult set of choices. Through this Budget we are facing up to our responsibilities while being honest with the people of Scotland about the challenges which lie ahead.
“To govern is to choose and the Scottish Government has made its choice.
“Within the powers available to us, we will choose a different path. A path which sees the Scottish Government commit substantial resources to protect the most vulnerable people of Scotland from the impact of decisions and policies made by the UK Government. We choose to stand firmly behind the Scottish people, investing in our public services and doing everything possible to ensure that no one is left behind.
“This Budget strengthens the social contract between the Scottish Government and every citizen of Scotland for the wider benefit of society. This social contract means that people in Scotland continue to enjoy many benefits not available throughout the UK – including free prescriptions, free access to higher education and the Scottish Child Payment.
“Because we know this progressive model works, we choose the path where people are asked to pay their fair share, in the knowledge that in so doing they help to create the fairer society in which we all want to live”.
Responding to the Scottish Government Budget, STUC General Secretary Roz Foyer said: “It’s clear that Scotland’s trade union movement has made progress in winning demands from the Scottish Government.
####2Raising taxes on those most able to pay, including second homeowners, are key demands in our ‘Fairer Taxes’ report. We hope reform of the Small Business Bonus Scheme will leave it fairer and less of a drain on public resources and the piloting of scrapping peak rail fares is also a step in the right direction.
“However, we needed strides, not steps. We cannot pretend this is the radical, redistributive budget working people in Scotland needed – it isn’t. We can – and will – demand the government to go much further and deliver the substantial reforms needed to our economy including introducing wealth and further property taxes called for in our report.
“The Finance Secretary has more to do and we welcome his constructive engagement with our movement. This budget leaves the door open for public sector workers to negotiate the inflation level pay rises they so desperately need. We intend to use it.”
Responding to the Scottish Budget delivered by the Deputy First Minister, Dr Liz Cameron CBE, Chief Executive, Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said:“Whilst the backdrop for today’s statement was already set by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in the Autumn Statement, today’s Scottish Budget will not bring much Christmas cheer.
“Businesses and households are navigating an extremely challenging period of high energy costs, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. The specific decision by the Scottish Government to widen the divergence on income tax rates between Scotland and the rest of the UK is exceptionally concerning.
“Many will be left pondering today as to who in the Scottish and UK Governments is standing up for the economy to help businesses survive this crisis and keep people in jobs.”
On taxation:
“The Scottish Government’s move to increase the top and higher rates of income tax will hit taxpayers in Scotland more than other parts of the UK.
“This is a clear disadvantage for Scotland’s businesses and workers and could position Scotland as a less attractive place to live and work. With over 350,000 people alone in the higher rate bracket, questions remain on the impact this will have on talent attraction, retention, consumer confidence and indeed departure of workers to other parts of the UK.
“We urge the Scottish Government to publish its economic modelling of this policy decision, specifically on the proposed impact this could have on future investment decisions by companies.”
On Business Rates:
“As a priority ask from the business community, we welcome the Scottish Government’s decision to freeze the poundage rate and align with the rest of the UK. This will provide relief to ratepayers by reducing the upfront cost burden of non-domestic rates. This was the right decision as is the incentive for businesses to invest in greener plant and machinery which supports net-zero and decarbonisation.
“Looking ahead, businesses need to see widespread reform to the business rates system ensuring it is fit for purpose and aligns with the economic reality that businesses operate in.”
On regulatory legislation:
“The scale of new and incoming regulations are piling additional cost burdens onto firms when they need them least.
“The recent move to delay the short-term lets licensing scheme was welcome and we had hoped for additional signalling from the Deputy First Minister today to delay other burdensome legislation such as the Deposit Return Scheme. This will continue to cause a great deal of frustration for affected sectors and we will therefore continue to represent sector concerns to Scottish Government through the Joint Regulatory Taskforce.”
On Net Zero:
“We welcome the Scottish Government’s intention to accelerate the move to a Net Zero economy. Businesses continue to support this agenda and a clear long-term plan for decarbonisation will support future investment and a just transition.”
Jonathan Carr-West (Chief Executive, Local Government Information Unit Scotland (LGIU) said: “Today’s budget saw Deputy First Minister John Swinney attempting to reach out to local government by promising additional funding and acceding to COSLA’s request to allow councils more freedom over council tax rates.
“Scottish councils will now be poring over the detail to see how much real additional money sits behind the headline of £550 million.
“Moreover, local government in Scotland will still be left wondering how, indeed if, it fits into the Government’s overall vision.
“While Mr Swinney was keen to position his budget in counterpoint to the UK Government, he risks repeating Westminster’s error in protecting the NHS at the expense of local government when we know that the preconditions for good health rely on effective leadership of place and an integration of services that only local democratic institutions can provide.”
The Poverty Alliance says the Scottish Government could do even more to invest in a just and compassionate Scotland:
Tax
Reacting to today’s Scottish Budget announcement, Poverty Alliance Policy and Campaigns Manager Ruth Boyle said: “We welcome the decision to use our tax powers in a progressive way to get more investment for the compassionate Scotland that people want. We hope that this will be the beginning of the Scottish Government’s efforts to use the full range of tax powers at their disposal. In the longer-term, the Scottish Government must reform the basis of our tax system, including implementing the long-awaited reform of council tax, to ensure that our tax system has justice and compassion at its heart.”
Services
“Increased support for the NHS and social care is very much welcomed. However, all of our vital public services are calling out for more investment. This budget raises a number of concerns for the future, and we fear that there will be more cuts to other public services coming down the line. We all rely on these public services, but they are a vital lifeline for people on the lowest incomes.”
Social security
“We are pleased that the Scottish Government have done the right thing and uprated benefits in line with inflation. However, we could go much further. The Finance Secretary stated that a key priority for this budget was tackling child poverty and it is therefore disappointing that the budget failed to uprate the Scottish Child Payment in line with other Scottish benefits. This will mean a real term cut in the value of the payment at a time when families on low incomes need more support to stay afloat. This decision raises particular concern for the poverty of single parents, over 90% of whom are women.”
Transport
“The decision to trial the scrapping of peak rail fares will help people to make ends meet as costs continue to rise. However, evidence shows that people on the lowest incomes are more reliant on buses. There is a need to improve access to affordable transport by extending free bus travel to people on low-income benefits and to those aged under 25.”
Spending plan ‘will protect families and public services’
The 2023-24 Scottish Budget will take a distinctive approach to creating a fairer, more equal Scotland, Deputy First Minister John Swinney said.
He stressed the three Budget priorities of eradicating child poverty, strengthening public services and moving towards a net zero economy were strongly linked and would give more people the opportunity to flourish.
Ahead of delivering the Budget to Parliament today, Mr Swinney visited a scheme in Wester Hailes, delivered by City of Edinburgh Council and part-funded by the Scottish Government, installing insulation for households at risk of fuel poverty.
He said: “I was encouraged to see the vital work being carried out to improve energy efficiency and make homes warmer for families facing significantly higher bills this winter. This scheme highlights how tackling the increased cost of living can assist our drive towards net zero, and is an example of the importance of effective public services.
“Our Budget goals are mutually beneficial and represent a distinctive approach to the economic challenges we face. The Scottish Budget will take further steps to address inequality and eradicate child poverty. It will encourage a just transition to net zero, creating wealth and opportunity across the country. And it will be the catalyst for reforms necessary to ensure our first-class public services remain sustainable in the face of the challenges to come.
“I would like to go even further but the cost of living crisis has also laid bare the fiscal constraints of devolution, as we cannot borrow to support day to day expenditure when times are hard to assist us through these difficult days. It is clear that businesses and households are paying a steep price for the economic mismanagement of the UK Government.
“The cost of living crisis requires decisive action. In setting this Budget, the Scottish Government will use its limited powers to the maximum extent that is responsible, to meet the challenges faced by the people of Scotland.”
The Scottish Budget 2023-24 will be presented to the Scottish Parliament TODAY (Thursday 15 December).
The outlook for Scotland’s budget in 2023-24 has undoubtedly been made more challenging due to factors wholly outwith the control of the Scottish Government, but there are decisions that Deputy First Minister John Swinney can make to ease the path ahead for Scotland, according to a report published yesterday by the Fraser of Allander Institute.
In its-pre Budget report, the University of Strathclyde-based Institute says that in the face of high inflation, the UK Government’s Autumn Statement provided some comfort with additional transfers that will more or less offset the impacts of inflation over the next two years.
The Scottish Government now needs to set out how it will use its significant devolved tax powers and whether to use them to generate more revenue for public services, including public sector workers.
The Resource Spending Review, published in May this year, provided a blueprint for spend over this parliament, but we have already seen deviations from planned spend in this financial year, and changing priorities may see further revisions when the draft Budget is set out on the 15 December.
The Fraser of Allander Institute’s annual pre-budget report, published today (12 December) examines the context to the budget and the key decisions facing the Scottish government in 2023-24.
Its findings include:
the economic situation has deteriorated markedly since the 2022-23 budget was presented, with high inflation set to eat away at living standards over the next two years.
the high inflation environment eroded the value of the Scottish Government’s budget in 2022-23 meaning that the present financial year’s budget is worth about £1bn less in real terms
Despite fears of cuts to the near-term budget, the announcements made by the UK Chancellor more or less offset the impacts of inflation on the Scottish budget in 2023-24 and 2024-25
the Scottish Government has significant devolved tax powers and therefore has decisions to make on Thursday about whether or not to use them to generate more revenue for public services.
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Institute, said: “John Swinney is getting set to present his first budget in seven years, in what he has acknowledged is an unprecedentedly tricky time for the Scottish public finances.
“The challenges he has been dealing with for 2022-23 ease a bit for 2023-24: there was some additional money announced at the Autumn Statement which generated around a £1bn of consequentials, offsetting the inflationary pressures on the budget.
“But there are also flexibilities that the Deputy First Minister has for the next financial year that were not available to him for this year – the Scottish Government does have tax powers that could be used, if he wishes, to raise more revenue.”
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, said: “In amongst all the headline-grabbing decisions, it will be important to take a step back to see how this Budget helps Scotland achieve its long term ambitions.
“We are expecting that the government will set out, clearly and transparently, the choices it has made and what the impact, both good and bad, will be for policy outcomes and the impacts on different groups.”
Less than one in five pension planners have confidence in the new government
Scots do not think the government is capable of restoring pension security, according to new research from My Pension Expert.
The at-retirement adviser surveyed 2,000 adults aged 40 and above. It found that nearly half (44%) of Scottish pension planners think the government will be unable to stabilise the pensions market, despite Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt’s attempts to restore faith in the UK economy. Just 14% have confidence in the government’s plans.
Almost half (47%) of those surveyed believe the current financial crisis has negatively impacted their retirement strategy. Nearly a third (30%) said they had now lost confidence in their pension scheme.
70% said that the recent turmoil in Westminster is distracting from the cost-of-living crisis.
As winter approaches, rising energy bills were listed as the greatest financial concern amongst 67% of Scottish pension planners. The majority of those surveyed have already started implementing a range of cost-cutting measures[1].
Nearly two thirds (63%) have avoided turning on their heating, despite temperatures dropping. Over two fifths (41%) have taken fewer showers or baths, while 1 in 5 (21%) have even gone as far as to skip meals.
Andrew Megson, CEO of My Pension Expert said: “Inflation is at record levels and expected to remain in double figures for the foreseeable future. Adding increased interest rates and constant chaos in Westminster, people are understandably desperate for reassurances. It is little wonder that public confidence has plummeted.
“The government must take action to protect retirees and pension planners. Being consistent with its policies would be a strong start. So too would providing Britons with the right tools to understand their financial situation and safeguard their hard-saved money – prioritising the launch of the pension dashboard and granting individuals access to affordable independent financial advice would be a positive step in this regard. Such action would help people to understand their financial situation and take steps to improve their financial situation.
“As winter arrives, people are understandably concerned about their immediate and future finances. So, the government must prioritise outlining a clear plan to support retirees and pension planners to understand their financial situation. That would mark a powerful statement that the government is putting savers first and even begin to reinstate some public confidence.”
Bank of Scotland Business Barometer for November 2022 shows:
· Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points during November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions
· Scottish businesses identify top growth opportunities as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%) and introducing new technology (35%)
· Overall UK business confidence remains robust at 10% with all regions and nations reporting a positive confidence reading apart from the South East
Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points in November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.
The survey was conducted between 1st-15th November, before the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement announcement on Thursday the 17th November.
Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up eight points to 30%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up 30 points to 16% this gives a headline confidence reading of 24%.
Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%), and introducing new technology (35%).
The Business Barometer, which questions 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.
A net balance of 8% of Scottish businesses expect to increase staff levels over the next year, down eight points on last month.
Overall UK business confidence fell five points during November, but remained positive at 10%. Firms’ outlook on their future trading prospects was down two points to 25%, and their optimism in the wider economy dropped four points to -2%. Despite a seven-point dip, UK businesses remained positive about hiring intentions with 14% of firms aiming to create new jobs in the next 12 months.
All UK regions and nations, apart from the South East, reported a positive confidence reading in November, with seven recording a month-on-month increase in confidence. Of those recording an increase in confidence, Scotland, Wales (up 12 points to 17%) and the South West (up nine points to 5%) saw the largest monthly changes.
Chris Lawrie, area director for Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s encouraging to see confidence among firms in Scotland reach the highest in the UK, as they show their trademark resilience in the face of numerous headwinds and a challenging economy.
“As firms look to the year ahead, they’ll have a close eye on managing rising prices, and keeping a close eye on working capital will help firms as they try to mitigate the effects of inflation on their operations. We’ll be by their side to ensure they are in the best position possible in the months ahead and they look to capitalise on opportunities for growth.”
Business confidence in retail increased to 15% (up from 9%), perhaps reflecting a renewed confidence in trading prospects ahead of the festive season. However, business confidence in the manufacturing sector fell for the sixth month in a row, to 4%, down 9 points, the lowest confidence level since early 2021.
The construction sector held gains made in October, remaining unchanged at 20%, although this level still remains weaker than in the first half of the year.
Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Business & Commercial Banking, said: “The fall in confidence shows just how tough it is for businesses right now.
“Pressures from rising costs continue and businesses are starting to feel the burden of higher energy bills. However, the tentative easing of wage expectations should provide some solace although we know the labour market is still tight.
“We would encourage businesses to keep a keen eye on their costs and cash flow as we head into the festive period. If any businesses are struggling, we would encourage them to reach out for support. At Lloyds Bank we remain by the side of businesses to help navigate these challenging times.”
Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Given the recent political and economic landscape, it comes as little surprise that economic optimism and business confidence have fallen this month.
“Pay growth expectations remain high by historical standards, which could signal ongoing difficulties ahead for businesses to fill vacancies.
“Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the clearer policy picture provided by the Autumn Statement will lead to business confidence moving in a more positive direction as we go into 2023.”
How the new interest rates affect house prices and rent across the UK
Housing market: hurry if you’re selling, halt if you’re buying, stay if you’ve borrowed, finance experts advise
Landlords will likely increase rent prices or sell to cope with increased mortgage repayments
Inflation and interest rates will keep rising, but house prices are already slowing down
TODAY, the Bank of England will decide what the new base interest rates might be, currently at 1.75%. Top market analysts expect this to further rise to 2.25%.
The Office for National Statistics announced on August 17th that UK inflation rose to 10.1%, from 9.4% two months earlier. The Bank of England expects it to further increase, peaking at 13.3% in October. The accompanying higher interest rates and bleak two-year economic outlook generally means bad news for homebuyers, landlords and renters across the UK.
Top market analysts at CMC Markets expect interest rates to further rise to 2.25% this month. This directly impacts mortgages on variable rates – around 1 in 5 households in the UK – and another 3.1 million whose fixed-rate periods expire in 2022-2023, according to UK Finance estimates.
Borrowers whose repayments are directly linked to the base rate, as set by the Bank of England, will now face mortgage repayments at rates between 3% and 4%, up from 1.75% and 2.75% only five months earlier. This will inevitably spill into rent prices.
CMC Markets analysed the latest data for June 2022 from HM Land Registry, published on August 17th, and concluded that the likely tendency for house prices is in a temporary slowdown, which is good news for those waiting a little longer to buy a home.
Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets comments: “Houses sold in June 2022 only increased in price by 1% compared to May, whereas, last year, this constituted a much more generous 5.7% surge.
“This is only the first month this year for prices to slow down at such a fast rate, so some caution before jumping to conclusions is advised. Remember, house prices may be slowing down, but they are not decreasing. Importantly, since this is transactions data processed at the time, it does not take into account the big leap in interest rates that the Bank of England announced later that month, let alone the even bigger hike in August.
“Therefore, despite the soaring inflation and rising consumer prices across the board, UK house prices appear to be trailing behind because demand for homes has generally come to a screeching halt. Most buyers are weathering the storm for a few more months at least, while some are also working out how the cost of living crisis will pan out in the medium term so that the new mortgage is not squeezing their pockets beyond their comfort zone.
“For those still keen to get on the property ladder, there are plenty of fixed-rate banking products that can insulate them from the current spiralling interest rates on mortgages. They should, however, prepare for the possibility of being faced with higher-than-expected repayments once the fixed rate period expires, as the new variable rates are at the lender’s discretion. Fixed rates are not a cure-all either, as they may now be set to a higher level to start with.
“The buy-to-let market is equally volatile. Landlords will either pass the increased mortgage repayments onto tenants by increasing their rent or simply sell fast to lock in a better price. Right now though, those already on the property ladder are generally better off staying put rather than moving or re-mortgaging. They would not get a good deal on their old house in this market and may likely end up losing more money overall.”
What did the Bank of England do earlier in August?
The Bank of England explained that the rise in interest rates was necessary due to external pressures which are expected to persist. This means that British firms and residents will continue to feel this weight reflected on rising domestic prices, wages outpaced by soaring inflation, and even higher mortgage repayments, despite the Bank’s attempt to widen the borrowing pool through less restrictive mortgage rules.
Although historic, the Bank’s decision was not a surprise for trading analysts at CMC Markets, a London-headquartered financial services company, who believe the Bank was expected to raise interest rates higher than 1.25% during the June meeting, as a means to keep import inflation in check.
This is on the backdrop of a 10% year-to-date depreciation of the British pound sterling against the US dollar and an indication from the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, of a further interest rate increase by 0.5% or 0.75% in September.
Michael Hewson comments: “The UK currently fares worse than both the EU and the US. This is due to its closer dependence on energy shocks than the States and less government intervention to soften the blow compared to its European counterparts.”
What’s next and when will things calm down?
Other than adjusting the interest rates to the accurate level to keep abreast of import inflation, the economic projections for the UK paint a bleak outlook for the next two years.
The UK is projected to enter a recession in the final quarter of this year, the Bank of England announced. The country’s economy will contract by 1.25% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024, however, inflation is becoming a much bigger long-term threat, with unrealistic chances of falling back to the desired 2% much before 2024.
The current political race for the Conservative Party leadership and the consequent fiscal policies promoted by the new British government is a major factor to take into account for any inflation, GDP, and unemployment projections and investment decisions.
As it stands with the current measures, inflation is expected to peak at 13.3% in October – a sharper increase than the Bank anticipated in June, originally estimated at 11%. It will continue to rise throughout 2023 only to decline in 2024.
Meanwhile, forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are less optimistic now, expected to decrease only to 9.5% in the third quarter of 2023, although the Bank anticipates a sharp fall in prices immediately thereafter.
Selling prices are set to increase to reflect rising costs while real household post-tax income is expected to plunge in 2022 and 2023. The Bank predicted that core prices will peak at 6.5% this year, meaning that, in the following six months, food and energy will constitute more than half of the headline CPI.
The next meeting for the Monetary Policy Committee, where the Bank of England will decide what the new base interest rates might be, is today – September 22nd.
Scottish Government identifies half a billion savings to tackle cost crisis
Around £500 million in savings have been found as resources are focused on tackling the “harsh reality” of the cost of living crisis, Deputy First Minister John Swinney said yesterday.
He updated the Scottish Parliament on steps being taken to meet the increased costs of public sector pay and to provide support to those who need it most, while balancing public finances.
Soaring inflation means the Scottish Government’s budget is now worth £1.7 billion less in real terms than it was last December. Since then inflation has risen from around 4% to more than 10% – with possible further increases when figures come out next week.
Mr Swinney set out to Parliament where savings have so far been made to help pay for initiatives such as fair public sector pay settlements and doubling the Fuel Insecurity Fund. He has also written to the Finance and Public Administration Committee outlining the details of reductions in planned spending made in recent weeks.
The Deputy First Minister has committed to setting out the Emergency Budget Review within two weeks of the UK Government budget update expected later this month. He warned further intervention will represent a significant challenge given the largely fixed Scottish Government budget and limited fiscal powers.
Mr Swinney said: “Our budget was based on a UK Spending Review that simply did not foresee the levels of inflation that are now a reality.
“That alone would require the budget to be revisited. But in times of crisis the job of the finance secretary is not simply to balance the books. It is to find the money to help families, to back business and to fund the priority projects that improve lives for the long term. And so, the Emergency Budget Review must both identify funding to cope with inflation-driven cost increases and aim to support those who most need our help during this crisis.
“This is the harsh reality of a fixed budget and limited powers. The Scottish Government simply does not have access to many of the levers which would provide the greatest support in this crisis. We will do everything we can. We will make the hard choices. But only the UK Government can act to end this crisis. They should do so – and I encourage them to do so now.”
Millions of people will be protected through strengthening regulation of interest-free Buy-Now Pay-Later credit agreements, under plans announced by the government today.
Lenders will be required to ensure loans are affordable and rules will be amended to ensure advertisements are fair, clear and not misleading.
UK Government will expand rules to cover other forms of unsecured short-term credit that pose similar risks to consumers, such as those used for dentistry work. Millions of people will be protected through strengthening regulation of interest-free Buy-Now Pay-Later credit agreements, under plans announced by the government today (20th June).
Buy-Now Pay-Later credit agreements can be a helpful way to manage your finances, allowing people to spread the full cost of a purchase over time. However, people do not currently have the usual full range of borrower protections when taking out this type of loan and they are rapidly increasing in popularity, resulting in a potential risk of harm to consumers.
Under plans set out by the government today it confirmed that lenders will be required to carry out affordability checks, ensuring loans are affordable for consumers, and will amend financial promotion rules to ensure Buy-Now Pay-Later advertisements are fair, clear, and not misleading. Lenders offering the product will need to be approved by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and borrowers will also be able to take a complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS).
Economic Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen said: “Buy-Now Pay-Later can be a helpful way to manage your finances but we need to ensure that people can embrace new products and services with the appropriate protections in place.
“By holding Buy-Now Pay-Later to the high standards we expect of other loans and forms of credit, we are protecting consumers and fostering the safe growth of this innovative market in the UK.”
Today’s consultation response sets out the government’s proposals for regulation of the sector. Given its complexity, the government will publish a consultation on draft legislation toward the end of this year. Following this, the government aims to lay secondary legislation by mid-2023, after which the FCA will consult on its rules for the sector.
The government has also confirmed that other forms of short-term interest-free credit, such as those used to pay for dental work or larger items like furniture, will be required to comply with the same rules announced today, given the risks posed are similar and consumers should receive consistent protections from similar products.
These rules will apply to businesses who partner with a third-party lender to provide credit, and the government is asking for further stakeholder feedback to confirm whether they should also apply to online merchants who directly offer credit for the purchase of their own products.
Today’s announcement forms part of the government’s plan to grow the economy to tackle the cost of living. The Chancellor has provided £37 billion of support to help, including providing the eight million most vulnerable British families with at least £1,200 of direct payments this year – and giving every household right across the UK £400 to help with their energy bills.
