Energy regulator Ofgem has today (Friday 22 November) announced a 1.2% increase of the energy price cap for the period covering January-March 2025.
The change to the price cap – which sets a maximum rate per unit and standing charge that can be billed to customers for their energy use – will rise by £21 for an average household per year or around £1.75 a month.
For an average household paying by Direct Debit for dual fuel this equates to £1,738 per year. This is 10% (£190) cheaper compared to January-March 2024 (£1,928) and 57.2% (£2,321) less than the energy crisis (January-March 2023).
It comes as analysis by Ofgem shows around 1.5million households switched tariff over the past three months. The regulator is urging customers to take advantage of the rising choice in the market and look for the best deal to help keep their household bills down. By switching, savings of up to £140 are currently available.
Following a call by Ofgem in August for suppliers to offer more choice with low and no-standing charge tariffs, there has been an increase in the number of suppliers offering these kinds of deals. There are currently 8 available that are at least 10% below the level set in the price cap.
However, while these come with a lower standing charge, they do have a higher unit rate. They could benefit customers with lower energy usage but will not work for everyone so consumers should carefully consider what works for them.
Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While today’s change means the cap has remained relatively stable, we understand that the cost of energy remains a challenge for too many households.
“However, with more tariffs coming into the market, there are ways for customers to bring their bill down so please shop around and look at all the options.
“Our reliance on volatile international markets – which are affected by factors such as events in Russia and the Middle East – means the cost of energy will continue to fluctuate. So it’s more important than ever to stay focused on building a renewable, home-grown energy system to bring costs down and give households stability.
“In the short term though, anyone struggling with bills should speak to their supplier to make sure they’re getting the help they need and look around to make sure they’re on the best, most affordable deal for them.”
The regulator is encouraging customers to consider the way they pay their bills. Around 5 million customers pay by standard credit payments – which means paying for energy after it has been used. But this is much more expensive, particularly over the winter months.
Customers could save £100 by simply switching from standard credit payments to Direct Debit payments or smart PPM, which remains the cheapest way to pay for energy.
The cheapest deal on the market could save a typical dual fuel customer £210 compared to the upcoming price cap level. However, this requires signing up for an additional boiler cover service.
There are other cheaper fixed deals on the market which don’t require additional services that could save customers more than £140 per year compared to the upcoming cap level.
If consumers are worried about paying their bills, they can contact their supplier for support. Ofgem’s rules mean they must work with their customers to agree an affordable payment plan. They may also be able to help by offering more time to pay, access to hardship funds and advice on how to use less energy.
Age Scotland’s Policy Director, Adam Stachura, said: “This latest increase to the energy price cap is yet another blow for older people facing the coldest months without the safety net of the Winter Fuel Payment.
“At a time when many are already feeling under pressure, news that bills are set to rise further still will put those already struggling in an extremely difficult position. They will be very disappointed that there is no end in sight, and no support measures identified for those not claiming or not eligible for Pension Credit.
“Pensioners in Scotland are the most starkly affected by fuel poverty, so government must deliver much more to support them or the numbers in this grim position will spiral further. This another compelling reason for the Scottish Government to bring back the universal entitlement to the Winter Age Pension Heating Payment next winter.
“With Scotland already recording the coldest temperatures in the UK, we are seriously concerned about older people’s health being jeopardised if they are unable to heat their homes.”
Consumer Scotland Head of Energy Kate Morrison said: “Although lower than at the peak of the energy crisis, energy bills are still historically high and will rise further in January.
“One of the legacies of the past two years of high bills has been a growth of energy debt and arrears in the GB domestic market which now exceeds £3.6bn – a record high – and bill increases will impact further on levels of debt
“This will be a challenging winter for consumers, particularly those with higher energy needs including disabled people and those with health conditions.
“There is a need for governments to design and deliver better targeted energy affordability support for consumers, particularly given current levels of debt and ongoing pressure on household budgets.”
Energy regulator Ofgem has today (Thursday 23 November, 2023) announced the energy price cap for the first quarter of 2024.
The price cap will increase by 5% on the previous quarter from 1 January to 31 March 2024. For an average household paying by direct debit for dual fuel this equates to £1,928, a rise of £94 over the course of a year – around £7.83 a month. The price cap, updated every quarter, sets a maximum that can be charged to customers for energy bills.
Ofgem’s priority is to protect consumers and ensure that they pay a fair price for their energy. Today’s price increase is driven almost entirely by rising costs in the international wholesale energy market due to market instability and global events, particularly the conflict in Ukraine.
The regulator will continue to use all levers available to ensure costs are spread fairly and customers struggling with bills are supported. It has today further developed plans to permanently remove the so-called ‘prepayment meter premium’ to ensure that prepayment customers are charged the same standing charge as direct debit customers. Ofgem has already launched a ‘Call for Input’ on standing charges running until 19 January, 2024.
Jonathan Brearley, CEO of Ofgem, said: “This is a difficult time for many people, and any increase in bills will be worrying. But this rise – around the levels we saw in August – is a result of the wholesale cost of gas and electricity rising, which needs to be reflected in the price that we all pay.
“It is important that customers are supported and we have made clear to suppliers that we expect them to identify and offer help to those who are struggling with bills.
“We are also seeing the return of choice to the market, which is a positive sign and customers could benefit from shopping around with a range of tariffs now available offering the security of a fixed rate or a more flexible deal that tracks below the price cap.
“People should weigh up all the information, seek independent advice from trusted sources and consider what is most important for them whether that’s the lowest price or the security of a fixed deal.”
Ofgem recently set out new rules for suppliers making clear that they should be prioritising enquiries from vulnerable customers who need help and proactively reaching out to households if they miss two monthly or one quarterly payment, check to see if they are struggling with bills and, if so, offer support such as affordable payment plans or, if appropriate, repayment holidays.
The regulator has also taken robust action to raise standards of customer service and worked in conjunction with suppliers and consumer groups to encourage industry to support those struggling with their bills, including the Winter 2023 Voluntary Debt Commitment recently announced by Energy UK and Citizens Advice.
A Statutory Consultation on levelling standing charges for prepayment meter and direct debit customers so customers pay the same daily charge has been published today.
Previously, customers on prepayment have been charged more than those who pay by direct debit to cover the additional costs and resources required by suppliers to provide their services.
In October 2022, the government introduced measures to temporarily remove this ‘PPM premium’ via the Energy Price Guarantee, which remains in place until April 2024.
Following a consultation this summer, Ofgem is now proposing an enduring solution that would ‘levelise’ these standing charges to coincide with the end of that government support. This consultation also sets out proposals to share the costs of bad debt more equally across customers to reduce the premium paid by standard credit customers (those who pay on receipt of a monthly or quarterly bill for the exact amount of energy used).
Under the terms of the regulator’s proposal, this would save PPM customers around £50 a year, reduce Standard Credit bills by around £45 a year but add around £20 a year for direct debit customers. Ofgem is keen to hear views on this proposal from all interested parties.
This follows the launch of a wider conversation on the issue of standing charges last week and how they should be set, which has already attracted a high number of responses in the first week of the consultation.
In response to today’s Ofgem energy price cap announcement, Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive of Independent Age said: ““Today’s energy price cap announcement offers little reassurance for older people in financial hardship, with bills still 85% higher than before the energy crisis.
“We speak to people in later life who are living in one room because they can’t afford to properly heat their home, those who risk falls because they aren’t turning on the lights, and older people who are in thousands of pounds of debt to energy suppliers. They urgently need help.
“With average energy prices having close to doubled in recent years, coupled with rocketing household costs such as water, food and broadband, those on a low income have endured several years of sky-high costs from all angles. Older people in financial hardship are especially vulnerable to sharp price increases, as many are on a fixed income. The extra money simply isn’t there.
“The UK Government needs to announce financial support now to help the most financially vulnerable, including those in later life, get through this winter. After that, we need a long-term solution to protect against the impact of continuing high prices, including energy.
“Our evidence shows an energy social tariff would offer more stability to older people on a low income and make sure no one is forced to make dangerous choices. This must be something the UK Government consults on.”
The next quarterly price cap announcement will be announced in February 2024, covering April – June 2024.
QUARTER OF MUSIC AND THEATRE VENUES CONCERNED ABOUT CLOSURE
A quarter of music venues (27%) are concerned they may need to close down[1], as more than a third (35%) of business expenses go towards energy bills[2]
Many are running at half capacity (50%)[3], and have resorted to production cost cutting (17%)[4] and raising ticket prices by up to 25%[5]
Two in five (39%) have also found that customers are purchasing less expensive seats and buying fewer refreshments[6]
Three in five (60%) music venues say that energy bills are their top concern for the next year, above inflation rates and staff costs[7]
Uswitch for Business energy expert, Jack Arthur advises businesses to check the contract they are on and to review energy usage across all organisational levels.
Energy bills are taking the centre stage of concern for live performance venues, as energy bills make up more than a third of overall business costs, according to Uswitch for Business, the business energy comparison and switching service.
Performance venues are widely recognised as energy-intensive spaces, and the new research of UK music venues, concert halls and theatres shows over a quarter (27%) are concerned about potential closure due to rising costs.[1]
Air conditioning, heating, as well as extensive sound and lighting systems required to create immersive experiences for audiences are all adding towards total energy expenditure costs, with venues needing between 6 -1,000 kw to power low level concerts to major artist events[8].
Venues of all sizes report running at half capacity (50%) on average[3]. More than one in four (26%) sold fewer tickets this year, compared to last year. [9]
Consumers attending live performances are also more inclined to choose less expensive seats (39%) or buy fewer refreshments (39%)[6].
The show must go on: responding to the high energy costs
One in six (15%) venues report having to increase ticket prices[4], at an average of 25% per ticket to cover increased expenditure[5]. In addition, more than a quarter (27%) have also increased the prices of refreshments.[4]
Venues are also looking at new ways to reduce their energy output to directly tackle the problem. Training staff in energy efficiency measures (45%), switching to more energy efficient or LED lighting for both onstage and offstage (41%), and turning off, down or restricting air conditioning and heating (36%) are just some of the tactics. [4]
Nearly one in five (19%) are also choosing to only open their doors during peak times of the week, and 17% are using less energy intensive movable staging and production measures.[4]
But as energy prices continue to oscillate at high levels, three in five (60%) businesses are citing bills as their top concern for the next year, followed by inflation rates (41%) and staff costs (30%).[7]
Venues say they may have to make considerable changes if business costs were to increase further, especially as more than one in three (34%) state their business margins are now lower than before the cost of living crisis.[6]
Two in five (40%) fear they may have to make staff redundant to reduce costs, and one in three (35%) worry they may not be able to pay their energy bills on time.[1] Overall, 32% feel anxious about the future of the industry.[10]
Jack Arthur, energy expert at Uswitch for Business comments: “Live performances are central not only to the UK’s culture and entertainment sector, but also to the UK economy.
“While the sector has seen some recovery since the pandemic’s impact, the cost of energy has added new additional challenges.
“With higher utility costs taking the stage, venues need to be meticulous about how energy usage is being considered at all levels of their organisation – from the stage floor to sound production.
“Investing in more energy efficient appliances where possible may help to bring costs down, and prevent the final curtain for many.
“Music venues should also make sure they’re aware of their energy contract terms and end date, so they can shop around for the best rates at the time of renewal. Getting expert advice where needed and speaking to someone could help many businesses make significant savings.”
Elspeth McBain, Chief Executive of Lighthouse Poole Centre for Arts says: “Energy costs have been a major challenge to our venue, and indeed all venues in the last year, just as we were beginning to recover and get back on our feet following the devastating effect of the pandemic on culture and hospitality.
“In 2023 our electricity bill alone will increase by 200% and we are doing everything we can to meet this cost. However, this is on top of the significant increase in the cost of living which has increased our costs in all areas of the business and has also meant our audiences have less leisure spend available, restricting the number of times they can attend cultural events.
“Together, these factors have made it a testing time for organisations like ours and theatregoers alike. I am desperate for energy and living costs to come down so that we can keep bringing top class artists and productions to Poole, support local talent development, provide opportunities for cultural participation, and ensure that culture within our region continues to play a vital part in our community.”
Mark Davyd, CEO & Founder of the Music Venue Trust says: “We have seen an incredible explosion in energy prices right across the grassroots music venue sector in the last 12 months.
“The current situation is really on a knife edge, with venues essentially clinging on to the end of existing fixed term contracts and any new tariff effectively immediately creating a venue under threat of permanent closure.
“We desperately need some action from Ofcom and the Government to make the energy market work for music.”
The issue will be debated at the ‘Festival of Politics,’ which will be held in Edinburgh between Wednesday 9-11 August.
The panel, being held on the evening of the 11th, is entitled ‘Scotland’s Music Venues’ will examine why, despite Scotland’s worldwide reputation as a music nation, Grassroots Music Venues are under extraordinary financial pressures with many facing closure, and how politicians can step-up and help create security for these spaces.
Chaired by Michelle Thomson MSP, Convener, cross-party group on music, the panellists will include Scottish singer-songwriter Hamish Hawk, MVT COO Beverley Whitrick and major event professional Jim Frayling.
Unless otherwise stated, all figures taken from omnibus research carried out by onepoll on behalf of Uswitch for Business.
This was an online poll of 100 entertainment venue decision makers in the UK. The research was conducted between 6th and 9th June, 2023.
Respondents were asked ‘If costs of the business you work at were to increase to higher levels, which of the following do you believe could happen to the business?’, 40% said ‘it may have to make staff redundant’, 35% said ‘it might be unable to pay energy bills on time’, and 27% said ‘it may have to close down’.
Respondents were asked ‘Please estimate the proportion of your total business expenses that can be attributed to energy bills?’, the average response was 35.2%.
Respondents were asked ‘At what capacity (i.e., number of tickets sold) is the business you work at currently operating at for shows/performances?’, the average response was 50.4%.
Respondents were asked ‘What actions is your business taking to deal with high energy costs?’, 45% said ‘training all staff in energy efficiency measures’, 41% said ‘switching to more energy efficient / LED lighting (onstage or around the venue), 36% said ‘turning off, down or restricting air-conditioning or heating’, 27% said ‘increasing prices of refreshments at venue bars’, 19% said ‘opening the venue only during peak times of the week, 17% said ‘using less moving staging and production during shows, and 15% said ‘increasing prices of tickets’.
Respondents were asked ‘By what percentage have you had to raise overall prices?’, the average response was 25.1%.
Respondents were asked ‘What effects has the cost of living / rising energy prices had on your business?’, 39% said ‘customers are buying less refreshments’, 39% said ‘customers are choosing less expensive seats when buying tickets, 34% said ‘our business margins are smaller than previously’, 19% said ‘less of a demand for on the day tickets’.
Respondents were asked ‘What are your biggest concerns for your business in the next year?’, 60% said ‘energy bills’, 41% said ‘inflation rates’, 30% said ‘staff costs’, 27% said ‘customers reducing non-essential spending’.
Respondents were asked ‘Does your business currently have as many tickets sold compared to this time last year?’, 26% said ‘it has less tickets sold than this time last year’.
Respondents were asked ‘Which of the following statements do you agree with’, 36% said ‘my business was just starting to recover from the impact of the pandemic, and now energy costs are providing an even worse challenge’, 35% said ‘I am hopeful that the price of energy will drop in the next 3-6 months’, and 32% said ‘I feel anxious about the future of the industry’.
Prepayment meter households will no longer pay more on average for their energy than direct debit customers, as the UK Government scraps unfair charge
Unfair charge on prepayment meter customers scrapped
change will help around three million households and save on average £21 a year
together with the new energy price cap taking effect today, households will save hundreds of pounds on their bills
Fairness will be delivered for households today as the government scraps the unfair charge on prepayment meter customers.
The change, taking effect from today, will help around three million households using prepayment meters across Great Britain – bringing their bills in line with those who pay by direct debit, with the government stepping in to cover the difference.
Currently, households on the pay-as-you-go meters pay more on average than direct debit customers, as it costs suppliers more to service their homes – such as collecting payments or giving out vouchers – with the charges passed onto consumers.
Removing the prepayment meter premium means these households will save around £21 a year on their bills, making sure the system is fair and providing extra support to consumers who are typically on low incomes.
Scrapping the prepayment meter premium comes as Ofgem’s latest price cap takes effect today – which thanks to improvements in the wholesale market, will bring the typical annual energy bill down from £2,500 under the Energy Price Guarantee to around £2,074. This will help lower inflation – one of the Prime Minister’s five promises – as high energy prices drive up prices across the economy.
The fall in energy bills will save the average household around £426, or 17%, and means for every £100 previously spent on energy bills, consumers will now pay £83.
Energy Consumers and Affordability Minister Amanda Solloway said: “No one should be charged more for having a prepayment meter – today, we’re putting an end to this historic injustice.
“With households on prepayment meters typically on some of the lowest incomes, this is a vital change.
“Alongside the hundreds of pounds coming off energy bills from today, thanks to the fall in the price cap – this will offer extra help to ensure families stop being unfairly penalised.”
To ensure the prepayment premium comes to an end as quickly as possible, the Government will be funding the change up to April 2024. Ofgem as the energy regulator will be devising a plan that will eradicate it permanently after that date.
Earlier this year the government took steps to crack down on the abuse of prepayment meters by energy suppliers. The Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps demanded action from Ofgem and suppliers to put an end to wrongful prepayment meter installations in vulnerable households.
The government is clear moving customers to prepayment meters must always be the very last resort and has asked for regular updates from Ofgem and consumer groups to make sure all suppliers adhere to the regulator’s new Code of Practice – which puts measures in place to protect against them being installed in homes where they shouldn’t be.
Recent figures showed nearly £40 billion was spent by government between October 2022 and March 2023 to help keep household and business energy bills down, the most ever provided to subsidise household bills in UK history.
Over winter, the government covered nearly half a typical household’s energy bill and saved the average home roughly £1,500 by the end of June. That included providing £650 million to households on traditional prepayment meters through the Energy Bills Support Scheme.
The scheme saw vouchers totalling £400 issued over six months from October with latest figures showing 85% had been redeemed by the end of May.
While the deadline for applications has passed, that number is expected to rise with the last applications and reflected in figures due over the Summer.
New data reveals that Edinburgh North and Leith residents would be able to save an estimated average of £1,294 through Government-funded home insulation and heat pump installation
On weekends throughout February and March, Greenpeace Edinburgh spoke to people in Edinburgh about their energy bills, and the solutions to the cost of living and climate crisis.
Residents wrote eight messages to Deirdre Brock, MP for Edinburgh North and Leith, about their worries. These messages will be delivered next week, as part of the Warm This Winter mass lobby.
Local people also used the Affordable Energy Calculator [1] to see how much money they would save on their energy bills if our homes were well insulated and had cheaper, cleaner energy.
Carrie from Newhaven wrote: ‘Help to combat energy costs has helped but costs are still too high. Funding for new home-owners to help insulate windows is needed.’
Mark, a resident in North Edinburgh, wrote: ‘It would be great to see someone in the government stand up for lower energy bills and preparing homes for becoming sustainable and economical to maintain.’
Another local, Ros, wrote: ‘We need to prioritise those who need help during this time and make the cost of living crisis a lot more manageable than it currently is.’
Ian, a volunteer from Leith said: ‘The messages that people in Edinburgh North and Leith have written to Deirdre Brock MP show how people are still having to choose between heating and eating.
But it doesn’t have to be this way. We need the Government to commit more money for home insulation and heat pumps to make our homes warmer, our bills cheaper and our carbon emissions lower.’
Keeping the Energy Price Guarantee at £2,500 per month rather than raising it to £3000 is welcome but 7.5 million households in the UK will continue to be in fuel poverty from 1st April. If the Government makes the investment necessary to meet their currently unfunded 2030 targets for insulation, and support a UK heat pump programme, a typical UK home would see a difference of £1,832 a year, with savings ranging from around six hundred to several thousand pounds.
Data from the Affordable Energy Calculator shows that people in Edinburgh North and Leith could save an estimated average of £1,294 on their energy bills by 2030.
Hugh who lives in this constituency said: “‘I live in a rented flat in Leith and I was amazed to see that I would save £1,083 on my energy bill in 2030 if my home was properly insulated and was powered by a heat pump.
“I’d definitely recommend checking out the Affordable Energy Calculator to see how much you could save if the Government funded a UK-wide home insulation and heat pump programme.’
Ian added: “On 31st March, Greenpeace volunteers and other constituents have invited Deirdre Brock to meet as part of the Warm This Winter Coalition’s mass lobby.
“We are asking Deirdre Brock to pledge to call for the expansion of Government-funded home insulation schemes, heat pump installation, more investment in renewable energy, and further support for vulnerable households with their energy bills.
“If you live in Edinburgh North and Leith, we’d love for you to join us in inviting Deirdre Brock to meet, or if you live elsewhere, check out the online map [below] to see if a meeting has already been organised with your MP.”
“Problems in the energy supply market were apparent in 2018 – years before the unprecedented spike in prices that sparked the current crisis, and Ofgem was too slow to act.“
In a report published today Westminster’s Public Accounts Committee calls on the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Ofgem to say how they will make “the energy retail market work in the best interests of customers during the transition to net zero” after finding that failures at the energy regulator have come “at a considerable cost to billpayers”.
Since July 2021, 29 energy suppliers have failed, affecting around 4 million households. Customers have been left to pay the £2.7 billion cost of supplier failures. This means an extra £94 per household, a cost that will very likely increase.
The Committee found that this was due to “Ofgem’s failure to effectively regulate the energy supplier market”.
Ofgem “did not strike the right balance between promoting competition in the energy suppliers market and ensuring energy suppliers were financially resilient”.
Despite problems with the financial resilience of energy retailers emerging in 2018 Ofgem did not tighten requirements for new suppliers until 2019, and for existing suppliers until 2021. By this point wholesale gas and electricity prices increased to unprecedented levels.
The price cap “is providing only very limited protection to households from increases in the wholesale price of energy”, and Ofgem expects prices could “get significantly worse through 2023”. The Committee says BEIS and Ofgem should “review the costs and benefits of the price cap from a consumer’s perspective” to inform decisions about the future of energy price controls.
The position of vulnerable customers, who already pay higher energy prices, is “unacceptable”.
Dame Meg Hillier MP, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said: “ “It is true that global factors caused the unprecedented gas and electricity prices that have caused so many energy supplier failures over the last year, at such terrible cost to households. But the fact remains that we have regulators to set the framework to shore us up for the bad times.
“Problems in the energy supply market were apparent in 2018 – years before the unprecedented spike in prices that sparked the current crisis, and Ofgem was too slow to act.
“Households will pay dear, with the cost of bailouts added to record and rising bills. The PAC wants to see a plan, within six months, for how Government and Ofgem will put customers’ interests at the heart of a reformed energy market, driving the transition to Net Zero.”
Environmental campaigners have reacted to the announcement that oil giant Shell has made £8.19bn ($9.5 Billion) in profits in the third quarter of this year.
Campaigners say that the forthcoming Scottish Energy Strategy is a chance for Scotland to ‘chart a clear path’ away from the oil and gas companies who are harming people and the planet to instead create an energy system that runs on renewable energy.
Climate science is clear that we urgently need to transition away from our broken fossil fuel energy system in order to stay within safe climate limits. Analysis has shown that renewable energy is 9 times cheaper than new fossil fuel energy.
Independent climate advisors have made it clear that increasing UK supply of oil and gas will have almost no impact on UK bills as prices are set by the international market. However, continued reliance on volatile fossil fuels will leave millions vulnerable to spikes in their prices.
Shell’s profits for the previous 3 months of 2022 (Q2) were £9.5billion ($11.5billion).
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s Oil and Gas campaigner Freya Aitchison said: “The announcement of yet another obscene profit for Shell shows the scale of the pain that these companies are inflicting on the public.
“While oil companies continue to make record breaking profits, ordinary people are facing skyrocketing energy bills and millions are being pushed into fuel poverty.
“Bosses and shareholders at Shell are being allowed to get even richer by exploiting one of our most basic needs. Shell is also worsening climate breakdown and extreme weather by continuing to invest and lock us into new oil and gas projects for decades to come.
“The Scottish Government must use the opportunity of its forthcoming Energy Strategy to chart a clear path away from fossil fuels and towards an energy system that is built on clean, reliable renewables.
“They must listen to the science which tells us that to meet climate targets in a fair way, fossil fuel extraction needs to be phased out in the next decade.”
FRIDAY’S ‘fiscal event’ contained some of the most substantial tax policy changes seen in recent decades (writes Fraser of Allander’s DAVID EISER). Combined with last week’s announcements on the Energy Price Guarantee and Energy Bill Relief Scheme, this constitutes a huge change in the fiscal outlook.
In this context, the decision not to involve the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is irresponsible. It might be billed as a ‘Growth Plan’, but today’s announcements are a budget in all but name. The OBR plays an essential role in scrutinising tax and spend forecasts, assessing the likely impact of policy announcements on growth, the deficit and debt. Its exclusion from the process weakens transparency around the impacts of the proposals.
The new Chancellor (above) used the first part of his speech to reiterate the government’s unavoidably large interventions in the energy market to protect households and businesses from energy price rises. In the remainder of the speech he announced a host of measures designed to stimulate economic growth through a combination of tax cuts and regulatory changes.
Tax changes – implications in Scotland
There were two ‘tax cuts’ that are more accurately described as reversals in recent or planned increases.
A planned increase in the Corporation Tax rate from 19% to 25% will now not go ahead. The Treasury estimates this will cost £12bn in reduced revenue compared to its previous plans in 2023/24, and more in subsequent years.
The Health and Social Care Levy has also been scrapped, together with the 1.25% increase in dividend tax rates. These changes will cost almost £18bn in reduced revenues in 2023/24 compared to previous plans.
Both of these changes had been pre-announced and apply UK-wide.
The big surprises came on income tax. Here the government announced the biggest reforms (at UK level) since 2009.
The basic rate will be reduced from 20p to 19p one year earlier than expected, applying from April 2023 rather than April 2024.
The 45p additional rate will be abolished in April 2023.
Income tax changes and implications for Scotland
Of course, with income tax being devolved, neither of the changes will apply in Scotland. Instead, the Scottish Government will see a smaller reduction in its block grant next year than it was expecting, boosting the resources available to it in 2023/24 (the reduction to the Scottish Government’s block grant is broadly designed to reflect what the UK government would have raised from income tax in Scotland if income tax had not been devolved, and if the UK government income tax policy had continued to apply in Scotland).
In the context of this additional resource through its block grant, the Scottish Government will then need to decide whether and how to respond through its own tax policy.
It could of course keep Scottish tax policy unchanged. This would enable it to use its additional block grant to invest in public services in Scotland. The cost of it doing this politically would be that the gap between Scottish and rUK tax policy would widen substantially. Almost all Scottish income taxpayers would pay more income tax than they would in rUK. A Scottish taxpayer with an income of £29,000 would face liabilities around £160 higher. A Scottish taxpayer with an income of £50,000 would face liabilities almost £2,000 higher (Chart 1, black line).
Chart 1: Potential difference in income tax liability between Scotland and rUK, in 2023/24
Alternatively the Scottish government could mirror UK tax cuts with tax cuts of its own. It could for example decide to reduce the starter, basic and intermediate rates by 1p. This would broadly retain the difference in tax liability for individuals between Scotland and rUK at current levels (Chart 1, grey line). It would allow the Scottish Government to retain its treasured mantra that ‘the lowest income half of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than they would in rUK’. But such a policy would cost the Scottish government around £400m in foregone revenues.
Other policy decisions are possible. The Scottish government could decide to cut just the starter and basic rates in Scotland, rather than the intermediate rate as well, at a revenue cost of around £250m.
How the Scottish Government responds to the UK Government’s abolition of the Additional Rate will also be interesting. The Scottish Fiscal Commission is likely to forecast that abolition of the Additional Rate wouldn’t be extremely costly in revenue terms (there are expected to be around 22,000 Additional Rate taxpayers in Scotland in 2023/24 so charging them a few pence less tax on their income above £150k might not have a significant affect in aggregate, particularly if it is assumed, as the SFC will, that the tax reduction will induce some element of a positive behavioural response).
The Additional Rate policy therefore puts the Scottish Government in a difficult political position. If it retains the Additional Rate it will be accused of undermining the ‘competitiveness’ of the Scottish economy, for little direct revenue gain (without any changes to existing policy, a taxpayer with an income of £200,000 would face an additional £5,900 in income tax liabilities in Scotland compared to an equivalent taxpayer in England).
But abolition of the Additional Rate would provide a significant tax cut for the highest income 0.5% of the Scottish adult population (an individual with income of £200,000 would be better off to the tune of £2,500 if the Additional Rate is abolished). The regressivity of a cut to the top rate in Scotland is difficult to reconcile with the Scottish Government’s aspirations for progressivity.
Stamp Duty changes and implications for Scotland
The Chancellor also announced changes to Stamp Duty in England and NI, amounting to an increase in the threshold at which Stamp Duty applies to residential transactions.
As with income tax, these changes will not apply in Scotland. As with income tax, the changes to English policy will pose dilemmas for the Scottish Government when considering its policy on the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax.
The Scottish Government has until now set LBTT in such a way that homes sold in Scotland for less than around £335,000 pay less tax than an equivalent property in England. Above this price, transactions in Scotland face noticeably higher tax liabilities. The changes announced by the UK government today mean that – if there are no changes to the existing Scottish LBTT rates – all property transactions in Scotland would face higher tax liabilities than they would in England (see Chart 2).
The Stamp Duty cuts in England will generate some additional resources for the Scottish Government via its block grant. In ballpark terms the increase in resource might be around £80m. It could use this additional resource to fund public services, or to cut LBTT rates in order to maintain existing tax differentials.
Chart 2: Residential property transactions tax liabilities in Scotland and England
Investment zones – an option for Scotland but at what cost?
The UK government announced the establishment of several dozen ‘investment zones’. It is hoped that these zones will ‘drive growth and unlock housing… by lowering taxes and liberalising planning frameworks’.
Policies implemented within the investment zones will include business rate reliefs for newly occupied or expanded premises, and stamp duty relief on land bought for commercial purposes, and a zero-rate of employer National Insurance Contributions for new employees earning below £50,270.
The hoped-for impacts of these investment zones on UK-wide economic activity – as opposed to their effect on displacing economic activity within parts of the UK – is based more on hope than on empirical evidence.
Several dozen potential zones have been identified in England. The UK government says that it will work with the Scottish government and local authorities to identify zones in Scotland.
What is not yet clear is how the costs of investment zones in Scotland – in the form of reliefs on business rates and stamp duty (which are devolved) and NICs reliefs (which are not devolved) – will be distributed between the Scottish and UK governments. The Treasury’s costing document does not seem to give an indication of the funding associated with the planned investment zones in England, so it is difficult to get a sense of the fiscal scale of these interventions at this stage.
U-turn on IR35
In another regulatory reform design to unlock growth, the chancellor announced the repeal of the anti-avoidance legislation commonly known as IR35. This legislation was designed to reduce so-called “disguised employment”, whereby workers could work long-term for businesses as self-employed contractors rather than employees – and in so-doing reduce the tax liabilities faced by both themselves and the company that they were contracted to.
The IR35 regulations were introduced for public authorities in 2017, and for medium and large enterprises in 2021. The regulation has big impacts on the nature and shape of the workforce in particular sectors.
The introduction of IR35 has been a huge undertaking by public authorities and corporations to ensure compliance with the legislation, so the change announced today is a big deal. It is a shame that we don’t have the view of the OBR of the impact this could have on Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions: but the costing published today by the Treasury suggests it could cut tax receipts by £1.1 billion in 2023-24, rising to £2 billion by 2026-27.
The Energy profits levy – the existing windfall tax
Interestingly, although the Prime Minister has made it clear that additional windfall taxes were not going to be introduced on oil and gas companies, we need to remember that the Energy Profits Levy announced in May is still in place.
This is a 25% additional surcharge on the extraordinary profits that are being made by the oil and gas companies. When it was announced in May, it was expected that this could raise £5 billion this year, although there was a great deal of uncertainty about this.
Under current plans this levy will remain in place until December 2025, and on the basis of the costings published today, the Government has no plans to end it early. The policy is now forecast to raise £28 billion over the next 4 years (including this year). This is another area of costing that it would be particularly useful to get independent scrutiny from the OBR.
Summary: a gamble on growth with long odds
It is undeniably the case that the UK (and Scottish) economies have been characterised for the last 15 years by very weak growth. This has resulted in stagnation in household incomes and living standards, and constrained the growth of government revenues – with implications for investment in public services.
It makes sense therefore for the government to put the objective to raise economic growth at the centre of its strategy. But setting a 2.5% annual growth target, as the UK government has done, is much easier said than achieved.
The government’s decision to reverse the Health and Social Care Levy and cancel the planned Corporation Tax increases merely take policy back to where it has been in the recent past. It is a return to orthodoxy rather than a break from the norm, and in this sense it is difficult to see that it will make any difference to growth.
The substantial cuts to income tax do represent a bigger change to existing policy. But the hope that these will stimulate the economy is based more on blind faith than on any tangible evidence. There is no evidence internationally that countries with lower tax rates grow more quickly. Historically, UK growth rates were highest when tax rates were higher.
Whether today’s announcements unleash economic growth remains very much to be seen. Strikingly, what there was no mention of today was any plans for additional public sector investment. Despite the government’s rhetoric about reforming the ‘supply-side’ of the economy, there was little mention of the role that the skills and health of the population play in influencing the capacity of the economy to grow.
Whilst the government seems comfortable borrowing an additional £30bn or so a year to fund the tax cuts announced today, and is apparently relaxed about an over-growing burden of national debt, the path set out today will constrain the government’s room for manoeuvre on investment in public services in coming years.
At a time when parts of the public sector are struggling to deal with the legacy of the pandemic and other longstanding challenges, the implied prioritisation of tax cuts over public services investment will prove highly contentious, particularly given the regressivity of the cuts.
Households in the top 10% of the income distribution in Scotland will be better off by around £24 per week on average as a result of the cancellation of the Health and Social Care Levy, whereas those in the middle of the distribution will be only £4 per week.
The hope that the policies announced on Friday will boost growth and hence revenues despite cuts in tax rates is a big gamble with long odds.
Prime Minister Liz Truss’s opening speech on the energy policy debate in the House of Commons yesterday:
Earlier this week I promised I would deal with the soaring energy prices faced by families and businesses across the UK. And today I am delivering on that promise.
This Government is moving immediately to introduce a new Energy Price Guarantee that will give people certainty on energy bills.
It will curb inflation and boost growth.
This Guarantee – which includes a temporary suspension of green levies – means that from 1st October a typical household will pay no more than £2,500 per year for each of the next two years, while we get the energy market back on track.
This will save a typical household £1,000 a year. It comes in addition to the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme.
This Guarantee supersedes the Ofgem price cap, and has been agreed with energy retailers.
We will deliver this by securing the wholesale price for energy, while putting in place long-term measures to secure future supplies at more affordable rates.
We are supporting this country through this winter and next, and tackling the root cause of high prices, so we are never in this position again.
For those using heating oil, living in park homes or those on heat networks, we will set up a fund so that all UK consumers can benefit from equivalent support.
We will also support all businesses, charities and public sector organisations with their energy costs this winter – offering an equivalent guarantee for 6 months.
After those 6 months we will provide further support to vulnerable sectors, such as hospitality, including our local pubs.
My Rt Hon Friend the Business Secretary will work with businesses to review where this should be targeted to make sure those most in need get support. This review will be concluded within 3 months, giving businesses certainty.
In the meantime, companies with the wherewithal need to be looking for ways they can improve energy efficiency and increase direct energy generation
We will be bringing forward emergency legislation to deliver this policy. And my Rt Hon Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will set out the expected costs as part of his fiscal statement later this month.
I can tell the House today that we will not be giving in to calls for this to be funded through a windfall tax.
That would undermine the national interest by discouraging the very investment we need to secure home-grown energy supplies. You can’t tax your way to growth.
Instead, we are taking an approach which is pro-growth, pro-business and pro the investment we need for energy security.
This is the moment to be bold. We are facing a global energy crisis and there are no ‘cost-free’ options.
There will be a cost to this intervention. However we are also acting immediately to defray the cost of this intervention in three ways.
Firstly, by ramping up supply.
Following on from the successful vaccine taskforce, we have created a new Energy Supply Taskforce under the leadership of Maddy McTernan.
They are already negotiating new long term energy contracts with domestic and international gas suppliers to immediately bring down the cost of this intervention.
We are also accelerating all sources of domestic energy, including North Sea oil and gas production.
We will be launching a new licensing round, which we expect to lead to over 100 new licences being awarded.
And we will speed up our deployment of all clean and renewable technologies including hydrogen, solar, carbon capture and storage, and wind… where we are already the world leader in offshore generation.
Renewable and nuclear generators will move onto Contracts for Difference to end the situation where electricity prices are set by the marginal price of gas.
This will mean generators are receiving a fair price, reflecting their cost of production, further bringing down the cost of this intervention.
Secondly, today’s action will deliver substantial benefits to our economy, boosting growth which increases tax receipts and gives certainty to business.
This intervention is expected to curb inflation by up to 5 percentage points, bringing a reduction in the cost of servicing government debt.
Thirdly, this morning, together with the Bank of England, we will set up a new scheme, worth up to £40 billion, to ensure that firms operating in wholesale energy markets have the liquidity they need to manage price volatility.
This will stabilise the market and decrease the likelihood that energy retailers need our support, like they did last Winter.
By increasing supply, boosting the economy and increasing liquidity in the market we will significantly reduce the cost to government of this intervention.
As well as dealing with the immediate situation we face, we are also dealing with the root causes.
Energy policy over the past decades has not focused enough on securing supply.
There’s no better example than nuclear, where the UK has not built a single new nuclear reactor in 25 years.
It’s not just about supply. The regulatory structures have failed, exposing the problems of having a price cap applied to the retail but not the wholesale market.
All of this has left us vulnerable to volatile global markets and malign actors in an increasingly geopolitical world.
That is why Putin is exploiting by weaponising energy supplies as part of his illegal war on Ukraine.
So as well as the action we are taking today on bills, we will use the next 2 years to make sure that the United Kingdom is never in this situation again.
I will be launching two reviews.
Firstly, a review of energy regulation to fix the underlying problems. We want a new approach which will address supply and affordability for the long term.
Secondly, we will conduct a review to ensure we deliver net zero by 2050 in a way that is pro-business and pro-growth. This review will be led by my Rt Hon Friend the member for Kingswood.
We are delivering a stable environment that gives investors the confidence to back gas as part of our transition to net zero.
We will end the moratorium on extracting our huge reserves of shale, which could get gas flowing in as soon as six months, where there is local support.
We will launch Great British Nuclear later this month – putting us on the path to deliver up to a quarter of our electricity generation with nuclear by 2050.
As a result of these steps on shale and nuclear and the acceleration of renewables, I am today setting a new ambition for our country.
Far from being dependent on the global energy market and the actions of malign actors, we will make sure the UK a net energy exporter by 2040.
And my Rt Hon Friend the Business Secretary will set out a plan in the next two months to make sure we achieve this.
I know businesses and families are very concerned about how they will get through this winter.
That’s why I felt it was important to act urgently to provide immediate help and support, as well as setting out our plan about how we are going to secure the UK’s future supplies.
This is part of my vision for rebuilding our economy.
Secure energy supply is vital to growth and prosperity. Yet it has been ignored for too long.
I will end the UK’s short-termist approach to energy security and supply once and for all.
That is what I promised on the steps of Downing Street.
Today we are acting decisively to deliver that pledge.
This will help us build a stronger, more resilient and more secure United Kingdom.
I commend this motion to the House.
UK GOVERNMENT BORROWING MORE TO BOLSTER OIL COMPANY PROFITS
Environmental campaigners have reacted to the UK Government plans for an energy price freeze funded by borrowing.
The UK Government will open a new licensing round for the North Sea next week, and is expected to give out over 100 permits for companies to look for more climate-wrecking oil and gas. This is despite climate science and energy experts warning that any new oil and gas projects will push the world well past dangerous climate limits.
Independent advisors have made it clear that increasing UK supply of oil and gas will have almost no impact on UK bills as prices are set by the international market.
Liz Truss also announced that her Government will lift the moratorium on shale gas. Scotland has a de facto ban on fracking.
In the first 6 months of 2022, 5 oil companies made over £80 billion in profits: Shell £16.6bn, BP £12.2bn, Exxonmobil £21.7bn, TotalEnergies £15.2bn, Chevron £14.5bn.
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s head of campaigns Mary Church said: “The impact of measures announced today to stop the immediate rise in household bills is welcome, but the approach taken by the new Prime Minister singularly fails to address the fundamental problems of a broken energy system that serves only to enrich oil company bosses and shareholders.
“The money the UK Government is borrowing will be pumped straight into the coffers of oil companies when it could have helped deliver the transition to clean, reliable renewables. People in the UK are being robbed by fossil fuel companies but instead of making them pay for the harm they are causing, Liz Truss has decided to borrow more money to keep paying the robbers.
“This energy price crisis is being driven by the price of fossil fuels and the only sure fire to prevent this happening again is a rapid and fair transition to renewable energy and a scaling up of energy efficiency.”
+ NORTH SEA OIL & GAS LICENCES “Burning oil and gas is driving the climate emergency that sees tens of millions displaced by floods in Pakistan and has brought extreme heatwaves and drought across the UK. The UK Government is denying the reality of climate change by encouraging companies to seek out more fuel for the fire that is engulfing the world.
“The Scottish Government must be willing to stand up to these reckless plans to expand fossil fuels and hand out more licences for oil and gas companies to explore and drill in the North Sea. Ministers at Holyrood must speak out and use all the tools at their disposal to block any plans to further lock us into the oil and gas that is driving both the climate and cost of living crises.”
+ FRACKING “The move to try reopen and force through fracking is a disgrace. Not only is the industry incredibly harmful in climate terms it also brings with it serious local health and environmental risks. Its laughable to suggest that fracked gas will deliver within 6 months. Communities have already successfully fought and stopped it in Northern Ireland, England and Scotland so wherever this dirty dangerous industry is proposed, it will be opposed once again.”
Commenting on the proposals announced by the government today to support households and businesses with energy bills, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Freezing energy bills this autumn is essential for families and to protect jobs and businesses.
“But the Prime Minister is making the wrong people pay. She should have imposed a much larger windfall tax on profiteering oil and gas giants. And she should have required all firms getting help with energy bills to commit to no lay-offs for the lifetime of the help, to protect livelihoods.
“And it’s not just energy bills soaring – so she needs to do more to help families get through the winter. That means a real plan to get wages rising, a big boost to universal credit, child benefit and pensions, and a massive rollout of home improvements to cut bills. And it’s time to bring energy retail into public ownership to make sure this crisis never happens again.”
The TUC says that the government should set out a programme to make UK living standards more resilient and the UK economy more resistant to a future crisis. This should include:
Increase the windfall tax to a fairer level relative to the excess profits oil and gas firms are making.
Rapid rollout of home energy efficiency and taking the energy retail companies into public ownership – including a new approach to energy pricing with a free band of energy to cover basic lighting, heating, hot water and cooking.
A plan to get pay rising for all workers – including stronger pay bargaining rights so that working people and their unions can make fair pay agreements across whole industries.
Increase the minimum wage to £15 an hour as soon as possible – by returning the UK to normal wage growth and having a more ambitious minimum wage target.
Social security that prevents poverty – universal credit and benefits should be raised to 80 percent of the national living wage, along with a significant boost to support for families with children.
Commenting on the Prime Minister’s decision to end the moratorium on fracking, Tom Fyans, director of campaigns and policy at CPRE, the countryside charity, said: ‘Giving fracking the green light is a hideous mistake.
“If the purpose is to tackle bank busting gas prices, it’s an exercise in futility. Even if we were to go full steam ahead on fracking, which nobody wants, least of all rural communities, it wouldn’t make a dent on the cost of energy anytime soon, or ever.
‘Any move to industrialise the countryside and belch yet more fumes into our carbon-soaked atmosphere will prompt a furious response from local communities, drawn out planning delays and nationwide protests. Hardly a proposal to keep families warm this winter, or lower bills in the future.
‘The new Chancellor got it right in March, when he said fracking “would take up to a decade to extract sufficient volumes — and it would come at a high cost for communities and our precious countryside.” Nothing has changed.
‘Proposals to offer local people discounts on their bills in exchange for environmental destruction on their doorsteps need to be seen for what they are – a feeble attempt to bribe vulnerable rural communities to accept an unpopular, unsafe and polluting process that will destroy their tranquility. Local communities need to make their voices heard loud and clear – they were right to resist before and should continue to do so.
‘The answer to the fossil fuel price crisis is to reduce usage with a mass insulation drive, alongside a clean energy sprint. There has never been a better time to transform our energy infrastructure to ensure a future of abundant green power.
‘Renewables are around nine times cheaper and far quicker to plug in than any alternative. Families facing the biggest drop in living standards on record need renewable energy to become the central pillar of a modernised energy system. And they need it to happen fast.’
A LEADING property association has praised the Government’s package of measures to help those unable to afford rising energy costs.
The National Association Of Property Buyers said the Prime Minister’s “swift and decisive intervention” would help many.
Spokesman Jonathan Rolande said: “Looking at the energy and inflation crisis from the perspective of the property market, we welcome the swift and decisive intervention by the government to help households and businesses with the cost of energy by capping annual expenditure at an average of £2500.
“The impact of higher increases jeopardised so many facets of the economy it was almost impossible to over-exaggerate the terrible consequences there might have been – bankruptcies, unemployment, increased inflation, a house price crash – all were very possible.
“Bills and inflation still look set to rise. Interest rates may well do so too. But the cliff-edge has, for now, been avoided. Businesses and homeowners now have certainty about their budgets and can plan accordingly.
“There will of course be a price to pay, perhaps with higher bills or taxes in the future. But today at least, homeowners, businesses, charities and everyone in the property sector will be breathing a huge sigh of relief.”
Under proposals outlined today, a typical household energy bill will be capped at £2,500 annually until 2024.
The huge support scheme could cost up to £150bn, but Ms Truss refused to put a figure on it, saying “extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures”.
Businesses will get support, with bills capped for six months, a shorter period of protection than many had hoped for.
The help will be for everyone in England, Scotland and Wales with equivalent help for Northern Ireland.
But there are concerns the measures are not targeted enough, with no additional support for the most vulnerable. As a result, millions are still expected to be in fuel poverty this winter.
The energy price cap – the highest amount suppliers are allowed to charge households for every unit of energy they use – had been due to rise to £3,549 in October.
To limit the amount customers’ bills go up by, the government will compensate energy firms for the difference between the wholesale price for gas and electricity they pay and the amount they can charge customers.
The final cost of the scheme will depend on the cost of energy on the international energy markets, which can be extremely volatile.
The money to cover the support will be borrowed by the government, adding to the UK’s already large debt pile.
Since the election of a Tory Government there has been such a severe reduction in living standards all over the country that poverty is being seen as normal.
This Tory attack on working people is deliberate policy. How else could these people be so incompetent and so wicked at the same time?
They are responsible for the continuing rise in prices daily. This autumn there has been a massive government-sponsored rise in the cost of living; the rise in electricity prices was a devastating blow to most people in the country; the price of fuel for cars, etc. has rocketed, giving the fuel suppliers millions of pounds in profits which was promptly given to shareholders while the price of heating and food rose.
The Tories now intend to show how much they don’t care as they have already announced a 10% increases later on this winter.
Yes, this is what the Tories will do and continue to do. All workers must do all they can to resist the Tories.
