Tag: cost of living crisis

6 million disabled people to get Cost of Living payment from 20 September

  • £150 disability Cost of Living payments to be made from 20 September 2022
  • 6 million people who are paid certain disability benefits will benefit
  • Automatic support part of wider package of help with the rising Cost of Living, including other cost of living payments totalling £650

Those being paid a qualifying disability benefit will be paid automatically from 20 September, with the vast majority of those eligible expected to receive their one-off payment within a couple of weeks by the beginning of October.

The payment will help disabled people with the rising Cost of Living acknowledging the higher disability-related costs they often face, such as care and mobility needs.

For those disabled people on low-incomes, this payment comes on top of other Cost of Living payments totalling £650, £400 for all households to help with energy bills, and an extra £150 for properties in Council Tax bands A-D in England.

Over eight million eligible households in receipt of a means-tested benefit received the first of two automatic Cost of Living payments of £326 from 14 July. The second means-tested payment of £324 will be issued later this year.

Minister for Disabled People, Health and Work Chloe Smith said: “We know disabled people can face additional costs, which is why we are acting to help reduce the financial pressures on the most vulnerable.

“This £150 disability payment is on top of the £1,200 most low income benefit claimants will also receive and alongside wider support targeted at disabled people, including help with transport and prescription costs.

“We know it’s a worrying time for some people and I’d urge them to check they are getting all the support on offer by searching Help for Households.”

The Cost of Living payments from the government are part of a £37 billion package of support, which will see millions of households receive at least £1,200 this year to help cover rising costs.

The government has also expanded support for the Household Support Fund in England – which helps people with food and energy bills – with an extra £421 million – for October 2022 to March 2023, and topped up funding by £79 million for devolved nations; the total value of this support now stands at £1.5 billion.

This is all in addition to changes to the Universal Credit taper rate and work allowances worth £1,000 a year on average for 1.7 million working claimants, a rise in the National Living Wage to £9.50 an hour, and a tax cut for around 30 million workers through a rise in National Insurance contribution thresholds.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi said: “We know that rising prices faced by many countries around the world are a significant worry for many people here in the UK, especially those most vulnerable to additional costs.

“Today’s announcement that disabled people will begin to receive an additional £150 payment from the end of September reinforces our commitment to help UK households through the challenging times ahead.

“This payment is in addition to further help households can expect over the coming months – including a second cost of living payment of £324 for households on means-tested benefits, £300 for pensioners this winter and £400 discount on energy bills for every household. This is all part of our significant £37 billion support package.”

  • Those who receive the following disability benefits may be eligible for the one-off payment of £150 in September: Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Payment, Attendance Allowance, Scottish Disability Benefits (Adult Disability Payment and Child Disability Payment), Armed Forces Independence Payment, Constant Attendance Allowance and War Pension Mobility Supplement.
  •  Armed Forces Independence Payment, Constant Attendance Allowance and War Pension Mobility Supplement.
  • Those who had confirmed payment of their disability benefit for 25 May are expected to be paid shortly after the payment window opens. For those awaiting confirmation of their disability benefits on 25 May, or who are waiting to be assessed for eligibility to receive disability benefits, the process may take longer but payments will still be automatic.
  • You must have received a payment (or later receive a payment) of one of these qualifying benefits for 25 May 2022 to get the payment.
  • You can read more about the government’s Cost of Living support on the Help with the cost of living page.

Report exposes “frightening” reality of cost of living crisis

A new report from Citizens Advice Scotland (CAS) details the breadth and depth of the cost of living crisis, with soaring energy bills driving “frightening” demand for advice around food insecurity.

The charity is publishing a quarterly cost of living analysis looking at advice demand. It found that in more than 1 in 10  utilities cases, the client also required advice around food insecurity such as a food bank referral.

Comparing the first quarter of this year to the previous financial year, the analysis also shows soaring views of online advice in energy areas such as:

At the same time, online page views relating to cost of living issues has increased massively, with “Get help with bills” increasing 122%. The page “Struggling with living costs” has seen a 67% increase, meanwhile views of “Food banks and other crisis help” is up 33%.

Across the CAB network itself, last year 26% of all utilities advice related to cost of living or income crisis measures. In the first quarter of this year that had grown to 35%.

Last year 36% of finance and charitable support advice was food bank referrals or shopping vouchers. In quarter one of this year this had grown to 45%.

The report also analyses demand across demographics, and finds that council rented tenants and those out of work, or unable to work, are seeking advice related to the cost of living at higher levels than other groups.

The charity is warning that this increased demand is before the impact of  a “toxic cocktail” this winter of the energy price cap going up, higher inflation, and increased interest rates.

Citizens Advice Scotland Chief Executive Derek Mitchell said: “The Citizens Advice network gives a wraparound service when people come to us for advice because people have complex problems and need help with multiple issues. Our data tracks the patterns and connections between the advice we are giving out and the problems society faces. What we are seeing is frankly frightening.

“More than one in every ten people seeking help with an energy issue also requires help with food insecurity. Let’s be absolutely clear what that means – some people face the prospect of freezing or starving this winter.

“This crisis is affecting everyone, but some people are especially at risk – our data shows higher demand for advice from council tenants, those out of work and those unable to work. That to me suggests broad support alone will not be enough – there needs to be targeted help for the vulnerable.

“We are seeing these issues before a toxic cocktail this winter of soaring energy bills, growing inflation and higher interest rates. People are hanging on by their finger tips and it’s the summer – how are they expected to cope when the temperature drops and bills rise?

“CABs are here for people during this crisis. We helped 171,000 people last year and a further 2.5 million checked our online advice. We are for everyone regardless of background or circumstance and it’s so important people understand we are here for them with free, confidential and impartial advice. We don’t judge, we just help.

“That help though, needs to be back up by policymakers delivering the kind or urgent and significant policy interventions to help people. Make no mistake, this is a challenge on a scale of the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 pandemic, and will require solutions to match that.”

CAS-col_aug_2022_Download

TUC calls on ministers to get pay rising, as real wages fall again

Commenting on Tuesday’s labour market figures published by the ONS, which show real wages falling by 4.1 per cent (on CPI measure) as the cost of living crisis intensifies, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Everyone who works deserves financial security. 

“But with the Bank of England predicting the worst decline in real pay for 100 years, energy bills soaring and a recession on the horizon, millions of working families are worried they won’t be able to keep their heads above water this winter. 

“We need action from ministers now. They should cancel the increase to the energy price cap. And they must do far more to get pay rising – starting with boosting the minimum wage this autumn and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise.”  

Zero-hours contracts 

Commenting on the latest data on zero-hours contracts also published by the ONS yesterday, which show more than one million people are employed on these terms, Frances added:  ““The government promised a high skill, high wage economy. 

“But too many workers are stuck on insecure contracts that give them and their families no security. As the cost of living crisis escalates, the case for banning hated zero-hours contracts is stronger than ever.” 

The ONS figures are available at: 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2022  

Latest figures published this morning show INFLATION rose to 10.1% in July.

First Minister to convene summit with energy suppliers and campaign groups

The First Minister will convene an urgent summit with energy supply companies and consumer groups later this month, to discuss how advice and support for people struggling with energy bills can be improved.

The summit will consider what collective action can be taken by government, energy companies and the third sector to help businesses and consumers access advice, and get support with debt issues.

Scotland’s major energy suppliers including Scottish Power, OVO Energy, Centrica, Octopus and E.ON, as well as industry bodies and key consumer and poverty organisations will attend.

The summit follows last week’s meeting of the Scottish Government Resilience Committee on the cost living crisis and will take place ahead of OfGem’s next energy price cap announcement on 26 August.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “I know that this is an incredibly unsettling time for households and energy consumers across Scotland and the Scottish Government will continue to do everything we can to support those affected.

“There is a not a single solution to this problem and government, industry and the third sector in Scotland needs to work collaboratively together to ensure the right support is in place for householders and businesses during this challenging winter. This could include improving the availability of help and advice and considering a more compassionate approach to debt management.

“However, it remains the case that the powers and resources needed to tackle this emergency on the scale required – access to borrowing, welfare, VAT on fuel, taxation of windfall profits, regulation of the energy market – lie with the UK Government.

“Only the UK Government can access and make available resources on the scale required. They need to take action, now. As I said last week, a first step would be to cancel the energy price cap rise this autumn.”

Peter Kelly, Director, The Poverty Alliance said: “We are pleased that the First Minister will be convening this summit of energy companies, along with the Poverty Alliance and Energy Action Scotland.

“Across the country, people are increasingly being swept up amid a rising tide of hardship. But with the energy price cap due to increase in October, that tide threatens to become a flood.

“Households up and down Scotland are terrified of what the colder months will bring and the likelihood is that – without further action – lives and life chances will be at risk. The situation could scarcely be more urgent.

“But it is a situation we can do something about, by taking action to protect people most at risk of poverty and deeper hardship. It is that much-needed and urgent action that we are hoping the summit can bring about.”

Frazer Scott, CEO of Energy Action Scotland said: “With our colleagues at the Poverty Alliance, we welcome the First Minister’s intervention in gathering energy companies together to talk about how we can best support households struggling to afford spiralling energy bills.

“Fuel poverty will affect over one million Scottish households this winter requiring urgent intervention focussed on targeting those most in need.

“Cold, damp homes affect health and wellbeing and will put thousands of lives at risk as well as adding additional pressure to the NHS, making this a vital intervention for Scotland.”

The Scottish Government estimates that 906,000 or 36% of all households will be in fuel poverty in October 2022, based on an Ofgem price cap of £2,800 and taking into account previously announced government mitigations.

Feed your kid on a budget during the summer holidays

 With food prices rising amid the cost-of-living crisis, parents are being provided helpful ways to feed their children during the summer holidays.

The penny-pinching experts at NetVoucherCodes.co.uk have looked at affordable ways to plan family meals throughout the summer break.

As supermarkets and fast-food chains increase their prices at the highest rates in over a decade, many parents are worried about the cost of feeding the kids during the holidays.

To support parents in the UK, restaurants and garden centres are offering discounted meals for kids to eat out, but there’s also simple methods to save money when cooking for the family at home.

Mitch Barnes, online consumer expert from NetVoucherCodes.co.uk said: “We wanted to give parents a helping hand this summer, as many will feel the pinch of rising food costs in their weekly expenses.

 “There are numerous schemes available this summer with a wide range of pubs and supermarket restaurants offering special discounts for kids to eat out. 

“But we also wanted to provide simple ways for parents to save money on making meals at home for their children during the holidays.”

Here are NetVoucherCodes.co.uk’s budget-friendly ways to feed your kid on a budget this summer:

Picky bits for dinner

A classic British summer favourite which many households are familiar with this summer. To make the most of the leftover meals, leave them in the fridge overnight and get creative about which bits can be used for dinner. This tip will save you from making a last-minute trip to the supermarket.

Batch cooking

Many parents use this effective way to make batches of school lunches in the week. Use this tip throughout summer by freezing your food and allocating which days the kids can tuck into a delicious meal without going out to buy more ingredients.

Shop around for summer deals

If the local supermarkets are near one another, don’t be afraid to venture out to each store to work out which has the best offers. Most shops will be near the end of summer discounts, which means the chances of finding even better deals are at an all-time high.

Discounted pub meals

Local pubs are providing a variety of discounts for kids to eat cheaper this summer, from half price fish and chips to chicken nuggets for a dime. Head down and find out which are available.

A trip to the garden centre

Taking the family to the garden centre is the perfect summer day out, with fresh flowers, gardening tools and this summer – discounted meals. Lots of centres are taking on the helping kids this summer initiative, so look up your local garden centre to see what offers are available.

Cheap meals at supermarket restaurants

Throughout the summer holidays, many supermarket chains are offering further discounts on kid’s meals to help with the rising food costs. Have a look at which ones are offering free meals, with many promoting a £1 dine out option.

‘Once a week’ rule

Set some time aside for a family meal out by using the ‘once a week’ rule where you either dine out weekly or you get a takeaway of your choice as a family treat. This way you can plan around your food shops so less food will be wasted, which will also help to prevent overspending allocating food budgets.

Social media budget recipes

Everyone has a favourite social media recipe which has become a weekly make. But if you’re unsure of any meals which can be added to your cookbook, explore social media apps for simple recipes which will cost less than a fiver to make.

Family pizza making

Instead of the Saturday night takeaway, it can be a proper family get together making your own homemade pizzas. While the children are off school it’s a perfect initiative to use this to spend quality time with them, without having to splash a fortune on takeout.

Yellow stickers before scheme ends

The best before scheme is phasing out, so it’s important to make the most of a late minute dash to the shops for reduced labelled food. Have a look in the evenings and on a Sunday afternoon to have the best chance of securing food on a budget.

Family meal plan

It’s best to be organised when planning meals to save the extra pennies. To make this more creative, mark each day with a different colour pen and decorate with stickers when it’s time for a special dish or a day when you’re dining out. 

Try veggie days

Meats typically cost the most on weekly meals. If you decide to swap the meat for veggie choices it can save around a third on select meals during the week. Have a look at meals which don’t involve meat or try out some delicious veggie options for half the price.

For budget-friendly ways to feed the kids during the summer holidays, head over to NetVoucherCodes.co.uk.

Fraser of Allander Institute update: Energy Costs and Fuel Poverty

The week’s economic news has again been dominated by the implications of inflation, and in particular of huge increases in household energy bills.

Projections for the energy price cap have again been revised up. The latest projections indicate that the price cap could reach around £3,500 in October, and increase further to around £4,400 in April. It is incredible to think that the cap was £1,277 earlier this year (having now increased to £1,971).

Such levels of increases will have severe impacts on households. In Scotland, a quarter of households were already in fuel poverty in 2019, the year in which the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition, Strategy) (Scotland) Act received Royal Assent.

That Act determines that a household is in fuel poverty if two conditions hold:

  • First, that in order to heat the home to a satisfactory level, the household would need to spend more than 10 per cent of its net income on fuel; and
  • Second, if, after deducting those fuel costs, and other essential costs associated with disability, care needs or childcare, the household’s income is below 90% of the UK Minimum Income Standard.

The definition therefore is not based on what a household actually spends on fuel, but on what they need to spend to heat their home to an acceptable level.

The daunting projections for energy bills will undoubtedly lead to a substantial increase in fuel poverty throughout 2022 and 2023. Quite how many households will be in fuel poverty according to the official definition will depend in part on what further action the government decides to take. But it is clear that a broad swathe of low and middle income households will be placed under severe financial strain.

The political debates this week have again focussed both on the level and targeting of further support the government should provide.

There is a clear case for targeting. In Scotland, almost all households (96%) with incomes below £200 per week were already in fuel poverty in 2019; but amongst households whose incomes were above £500 per week, fuel poverty rates were negligible. Further targeting via the social security system therefore seems appropriate.

But it should also be remembered that the financial distress caused by the energy price crisis will extend well beyond the poorest, and further broader-based support would also be justified. This is where the delivery mechanism becomes more challenging. Government could subsidise bills universally, although this would be expensive, providing support to some households whose need for support is relatively less.

But trying to provide support to low and middle income households only is tricky. Using the council tax system is far from ideal given the weak links between council tax band and income.

Households in bands A and B are relatively more likely to be in fuel poverty, but over 14% of Scottish households in bands F, G and H were in fuel poverty in 2019. On this basis, using council tax band as a way to limit the breadth of financial support provided has clear disadvantages.

It now seems unlikely that the UK government will announce its next round of support for households until the Conservative leadership contest has concluded. Depending on the mechanisms it chooses for delivering that support, the Scottish government may be allocated additional resources of its own which it can prioritise as it deems fit, or the support may be delivered at UK level (via energy bills or the social security system).

Two out of three drivers won’t go electric unless ‘absolutely necessary’

As the cost-of-living rockets, price comparison experts Quotezone.co.uk asked consumers how they really feel about electric versus fossil fuel cars (petrol/diesel) and which they found most cost effective. 

The new survey reveals that 59.3% of petrol/diesel drivers will only consider buying an electric or hybrid vehicle ‘when I absolutely have to’.  26.2% said they would buy ‘within the next 5 years’, 10.3% said they would ‘buy now / as soon as is feasibly possible’ and only 4.3% said they’d buy ‘just before the deadline’ – 2030, when the government plan on banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.  

The research also found that the main barrier that is stopping people from buying an electric car is the price, with 35.7% of drivers saying they are too expensive, followed by 20% of people who said range anxiety was a major concern, while worries about the availability of public charging points were cited as an issue by 19.3% of respondents. 

Interestingly though, 57.8% of those with electric cars said they were saving over £100 per month compared to their previous fossil fuel vehicle – with 36.6% saving under £100 per month.  Only 5.6% didn’t believe they were making savings.  

When electric vehicle owners were asked what they didn’t like about their cars, 24.8% said there weren’t enough readily available charging points, followed by range anxiety (20%), broken charging points (19%) and rising energy costs (18%).  

The data, compiled by Quotezone.co.uk, was taken from a survey of 500 electric and petrol / diesel car insurance policyholders, completed in August 2022.  

Quotezone.co.uk’s Founder, Greg Wilson, comments: “It’s really interesting to see what’s holding people back from going electric and again, lack of infrastructure and car price, appear to be the top offenders that are making it impractical for many to make the switch.   

“The hike in car prices is most likely due to the new car shortage, brought about by lack of materials and logistical issues across Europe, causing a spike in shoppers choosing ‘nearly new’ second-hand petrol cars.  

“One positive point to bear in mind for those worried about costs is that electric car insurance is now more readily available as the majority of insurance providers have added electric cars to their offering – making it easier for consumers to shop around and get a competitive premium.”   

Currently only 2% of cars are hybrid and 3% are electric in the UK.  Data from Quotezone.co.uk shows a small increase in customers with electric or hybrid cars of 0.2% from June 2021 compared to June 2022 – with the average cost of those electric vehicles increasing by £5k from £34,000 to £39,000. 

The government has been increasing investment in charging points, including grants for motorists, as well as tax relief to help make electric vehicles more affordable.   

Quotezone.co.uk helps around 3 million users every year, with over 400 insurance brands across 60 different products including electric car insurance, Tesla car insurance and standard car insurance.

Quotezone.co.uk is recommended by 97% of reviewers on Reviews.co.uk. 

Downing Street showdown does nothing to address energy cost fears

The Prime Minister, Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng met industry leaders from the electricity sector yesterday to discuss what more they can do to help people struggling with rising energy prices – but the meeting did nothing to resolve the impending crisis.

The Prime Minister, Chancellor, Business and Energy Secretary stressed the need to act in the interest of the country in the face of rising energy prices caused by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and how vital it was that the Western world continued to stand by the Ukrainian people during their battle for survival.

The Chancellor and energy firms agreed to work closely over the coming weeks to ensure that the public, including vulnerable customers, are supported as unprecedented global events drive higher energy costs.

Government support worth £37 billion is being provided this year to help people with the rising cost of living, including £1,200 for the most vulnerable households over the course of the year and £400 discounted off everyone’s energy bills from October.

It was noted that the market is not always functioning for consumers, and extraordinarily high bills will ultimately damage energy companies.

As set out in the Energy Security Strategy, the Government has launched a consultation to drive forward market reforms and ensure the market works better for consumers. Discussion focussed on how Government and industry can collectively drive forward reforms to ensure the market delivers lower prices.

The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Business and Energy Secretary emphasised the importance of investing in North Sea oil and gas, renewables, biomass and nuclear to strengthen our domestic energy security.

The Chancellor added the Government continues to evaluate the extraordinary profits seen in certain parts of the electricity generation sector and the appropriate and proportionate steps to take.

The Prime Minister set out that it will be for the next Prime Minister to make significant fiscal decisions.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “Countries around the world are feeling the impact of Putin’s damaging war in Ukraine. We know that this will be a difficult winter for people across the UK, which is why we are doing everything we can to support them and must continue to do so.

“Following our meeting today, we will keep urging the electricity sector to continue working on ways we can ease the cost of living pressures and to invest further and faster in British energy security.

“We are continuing to roll out government support over the coming months, including the second £324 instalment of the cost of living payment for vulnerable households, extra help for pensioners and those with disabilities, and the £400 energy bills discount for all households.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi, said: “This morning I hosted industry leaders from the electricity sector to discuss what more they can do to work with Government and act in the interest of the country in the face of rising prices caused by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

“We have already acted to protect households with £400 off energy bills and direct payments of £1,200 for 8 million of the most vulnerable British families. In the spirit of national unity, they agreed to work with us to do more to help the people who most need it.”

The meeting was attended by representatives from:

  • EDF
  • RWE
  • E.ON
  • Drax
  • Orsted
  • Uniper
  • National Grid
  • SSE
  • ScottishPower
  • Centrica
  • Octopus Energy
  • Vitol
  • Intergen
  • Greencoat Capital
  • Energy UK

Scottish Government Resilience Room convened to discuss ‘cost emergency’

The First Minister chaired the Scottish Government Resilience Committee yesterday (August 11) to discuss urgent steps to mitigate the growing cost emergency which is affecting people and businesses.

Ministers assessed the current situation and likely scenarios in the months ahead and agreed a number of immediate actions. The Scottish Government will:

  • Continue to maximise the direct financial assistance available to those most in need, principally through ongoing work to extend eligibility for and increase the value of the Scottish Child Payment
  • Undertake an emergency budget review to assess any and all opportunities to redirect additional resources to those most in need, reduce the burdens on business and stimulate the Scottish economy
  • Consider urgently all options within devolved powers for regulatory action to limit increases in costs for people, businesses and other organisations
  • Bring together energy companies, banks and food retailers to examine what further help can be provided by these businesses to limit cost increases and protect those most vulnerable 
  • Work with partners to strengthen the safety net of emergency food/fuel provision, prioritising a ‘cash first’ approach
  • Provide further advice to households on using energy more efficiently and reducing consumption

The Resilience Committee will meet on a weekly basis for the foreseeable future to oversee and direct progress on these immediate actions and keep under ongoing review any further steps that the Scottish Government can take.

In addition to doing everything possible within its powers, the Scottish Government is renewing its call for urgent and substantial action from the UK Government including:

  • An immediate doubling of the direct financial support already provided, with payments made by October. It is estimated that for an out-of-work couple with two children, the payments already announced by the UK Government fall around £1,600 short of meeting the recent changes to benefits and living costs – a gap that must be filled
  • Cancellation of the forthcoming increase in the energy price cap, followed by urgent work between the government and energy companies on energy market reforms and associated financing options to ensure sustainable costs for consumers in the long term
  • The urgent introduction of an energy price cap for Small and Medium Enterprises
  • Support for business to prevent closures due to energy price rises and investment in economic stimulus to minimise the scale of the projected recession
  • A further windfall tax to ensure nationalisation of the profits being made out of the current pressures
  • Additional funding to support public sector pay increases and protect the recovery of public services from the pandemic

The First Minister said: “It is clear that the UK currently faces a rapidly escalating emergency that goes beyond simply the cost of living and is now a more general cost of everything crisis. This emergency may be of a different nature to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is on a similar scale.

“In the absence of substantial and urgent action, this emergency will cause acute deprivation and suffering. It will affect access to practical necessities for millions of people across the UK. Bluntly, it will cost lives.

“To illustrate the severity of the situation, the Scottish Government estimates that, even with current UK Government mitigations, at least 700,000 households in Scotland – 30% of all households – will be living in extreme fuel poverty by October. That number could be even higher, if the Ofgem price cap for October 2022 is above £2,800. 

“It is essential, therefore, that the response from government at every level is commensurate, in scale and speed, to the nature and magnitude of the emergency.

“In developing a response, governments must first and foremost address immediate need. We must all focus on supporting individuals, businesses and jobs by addressing the principal root causes of the problem.

“Scottish Ministers are clear that the powers and resources needed to tackle this emergency on the scale required – access to borrowing, welfare, VAT on fuel, taxation of windfall profits, regulation of the energy market – lie with the UK Government. This is reflected in the actions we have proposed and set out today.

“At the same time, the Scottish Government will continue to do everything within our resources and powers to help those most affected.”

The Economy: Don’t Panic But Do Worry

This year has not seen the return to normality that many businesses hoped for. Supply chain disruption, rising prices, hiring difficulties, interest rate increases, and lack of confidence are taking their toll (writes Fraser of Allander Fellow JAMES BLACK).

Many economic organisations are now forecasting potential slowdowns in the UK and globally, but significant uncertainty remains around forecast business conditions.

One of the challenges in predicting slowdowns is the timing. Robust data often takes months to collect, so we often do not know if the economy has started slowing until months after it begins.

It’s helpful to step back and look at the significant economic drivers in times of such uncertainty. Survey snapshots, such as our recently published Scottish Business Monitor sponsored by Addleshaw Goddard, can provide some hints. So, what are businesses saying about their current performance and expectations for the coming year?

Starting with the positives, more businesses reported an increase in sales volume in the year’s second quarter than a fall, resulting in a net balance of +15%. This net figure is reasonably high, and this level hasn’t been seen in our survey since 2014. Employment, new business, and capital investment indicators also remained positive for the second quarter.

On the face of it, businesses have been remarkably resilient. Few people predicted emerging from one of the greatest human health crises in over a century with unemployment rates near record lows. Scottish onshore GDP grew by 0.6% in May, now 1.1% above February 2020 levels of output.

But concerns are now starting to emerge in the data. The net balance of the sales volume is still positive but has weakened since the start of the year. Looking ahead to expectations over the next six months, the positive but weakening finding is consistent across many indicators such as business volume, new business, and employment.

This weakening is mirrored across several other surveys. The June RBS Purchasing Managers’ Index showed the weakest expansion in Scotland’s business activity since January. Only 13% of UK businesses in the ONS’ Business Insights and Conditions Survey reported an increase in turnover in June compared to 24% reporting a decrease, and expectations for August are negative.

The most commonly reported challenge impacting these turnover figures is the cost of materials. Our survey has been asking Scottish businesses to report on their business costs since 1998 and provides a useful reference for the scale of this challenge.

The past four quarters have shown cost increases across the board. Costs for energy, employees, inputs, imported goods and services, distribution, and credit are all increasing or already very high. Compared to the 23 years of surveyed total business costs between 1998 and 2020, each of the past four quarters is a record breaker.

The knock-on impact of these price rises continues to filter through to the economy. An ONS survey states that 44% of UK firms have reported absorbing costs, while 26% passed on price increases to consumers. Two in five Scottish firms we surveyed said they expect to reduce their operations due to energy prices.

Concerns exist around how these supply-side issues could lead to significant demand-side impacts and contribute to a slowdown. So, what does the evidence show on how the major drivers of demand – consumer spending, export demand, government spending, and investment – have been affected?

Household spending accounts for almost two-thirds of Scotland’s GDP, but many people have seen their costs increase while their wages have failed to keep up. The likely impact is people dipping into savings, borrowing, buying fewer goods and services, or substituting for cheaper goods and services.

On savings, aggregate data up to May on net household deposits to UK banks has so far remained relatively stable over the year. If consumers, as an aggregate, start dipping into savings, this would be worrying not just for living standards but also for a potential reckoning down the road as these savings eventually run out. Credit card borrowing does appear to have increased, but total borrowing is still moderate compared to the past decade.

However, UK Retail Sales data up to June shows rising sales values and falling sales volumes. Inflation has driven what is now a significant wedge between these trends. Sales volumes have fallen close to levels seen in June 2019. Perhaps not yet concerningly low, but the trend is worrying both in terms of living standards and the consequential impact on businesses and their supply chains.

For now, the data primarily points to reductions in delayable purchases such as furniture. Mostly anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are opting for cheaper options in supermarkets and switching to budget retailers.

If domestic demand appears to be showing initial signs of slowing, will exporting come to the rescue? Most Scottish businesses in our survey say no. Pessimism exists about export performance over the next six months, and a global slowdown in 2023 appears increasingly likely.

Government spending in Scotland was projected to barely increase in real terms between 2022/23 and 2025/26, and inflation expectations have since worsened. The cost-of-living payment and £400 energy rebate will likely partially offset but not reverse expected negative consumer trends. However, it remains to be seen how UK policy may change under new leadership.

According to the Bank of England, investment intentions are still positive, and firms are increasingly looking toward energy-saving investments. But some firms are reassessing investment plans as the economic outlook worsens.

The challenges this year result from a perfect storm of supply chain issues. This included several surprises on the downside. An optimist may hope for the possibility of surprises on the upside too. Any signs of improved energy supply and production levels in China deserve attention over the coming months.

For now, the message for businesses is don’t panic but do worry. But for many people, there is increasing evidence that we are leaving a health crisis only to enter a crisis of living standards.