Winter is a looming crisis; effective action must be taken before it’s too late, says RCEM

The latest Emergency Department performance figures for August 2021 show the worst four-hour performance since records began, the worst performance for an August, and the fourth highest number of 12-hour stays ever.

The data show there were 1,342,250 attendances to Type 1 Emergency Departments in England in August 2021, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous month. Despite the decrease in attendances, four-hour performance deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month while the number of 12-hour stays increased for the fourth consecutive month.

In Type 1 Emergency Departments, 66.2% of patients were seen in four-hours or less, the worst four-hour performance on record and equal to over one-third of patients staying in a Type 1 Emergency Departments for over four-hours.

2,794 patients stayed in an Emergency Department for 12-hours or more, this is a 26% increase on the previous month and is the highest ever for August, it is also the fourth highest figure on record.

Data also show there were a total of 71,894 booked appointment attendances, with 34,787 of these booked at Type 1 Emergency Departments. Four-hour performance was at its lowest since records began, with 91.6% of all attendances seen within four-hours, and 82.5% of Type 1 attendances seen withing four-hours.

Dr Katherine Henderson, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “These figures come as no surprise, but they are no less appalling. The health service has been severely struggling in recent months and the College has been vocal in its warnings about this trajectory. We are now in autumn and the workforce is seriously apprehensive about this winter and what it might bring.

“The pandemic has highlighted stark inequalities; different parts of the country have been affected to different degrees of severity – and the continued impact and recovery has been harder in more deprived areas. In particular, the urgent and emergency care systems in the North East and North West are facing particularly extreme pressures.

“Average four-hour performance in the both the North East and North West is 63% while in the South East it is 73%. As part of levelling up, it is vital that these inequalities are properly addressed and not overlooked, and that support is given to those areas and to those patients that need it most.

“Departments also need clarity of focus in terms of priorities, and the priority must be long stays – this month’s fourth worst ever number of 12-hour stays shows the desperate need to improve the flow of patients through hospitals. But England continues to only publish 12-hour data measuring from decision to admit. Good statistics that accurately measure performance are essential in improving systems and publishing 12-hour data from time of arrival would show the true scale of the problem of long stays.

“The data also show that performance against booked appointments has sharply deteriorated. We must properly evaluate the efficacy of NHS 111 ‘talk first’ approach, so we can begin to improve it. There must be an adequate range of services available that NHS 111 to which call handlers are able to direct patients. Patients must be able to be directed to the right place for their care, and any patient booking an appointment at A&E through 111 must not be left waiting for a long period of time.

“At the same time there must be a renewed focus on the workforce. Our survey from July 2021 showed that half of all respondents said they were considering reducing their hours, while a large proportion are thinking of taking a career break or even changing specialty.

“The workforce cannot afford to lose any Emergency Department staff, we must do all we can to retain existing workers. To tackle this there must be a recruitment drive for Emergency Departments, in England 2,500 more consultants are needed – alongside sufficient numbers of nurses, trainees, allied health professionals and SAS doctors.

“To reduce crowding in hospitals, there must be investment in alternative care pathways including same day emergency care and discharge to assess, these will help prevent unnecessary admission.

“The vision for urgent and emergency care must be implemented and Emergency Medicine staff need to be assured that progress is being made. The College has laid out what needs to be done in RCEM CARES, and reports including; Summer to Recover; and Retain, Recruit, Recover.

“Patient safety is at risk and on this trajectory, winter will be far worse than previously forecast – it is a looming crisis – and the health service is on the brink. The cost will be huge. Funding is welcome, but a comprehensive, joined-up plan, that must include short-term actions for the winter ahead together with a long-term strategy is vital.

“We are at a crucial point; Emergency Department performance continues to deteriorate while elective care waiting lists continue to rise steeply. The government must see the iceberg ahead and steer the health and social care service to safety.”

Lowest ever levels of A&E performance show NHS ‘near boiling point’

‘the reality is that the NHS is really struggling’

Responding to the latest set of performance figures released by NHS England for July 2021, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Dr Katherine Henderson, said: “The NHS has been running hot for months now and these figures show we are nearly at boiling point.

“We are worried that the public think that things are getting back to normal on the virtual eve of a further reduction in restrictions, and messages from the centre that says things are OK are disingenuous – the reality is that the health service is really struggling.

“Four-hour performance has sunk to its lowest ever level, we have levels of 12 hour waits we would usually associate with winter, and July saw the second highest ever number of attendances across emergency care units. Yet there is no sign of rescue ahead of winter. Despite our calls for action, crowding is back with us and is compromising patient care.”

Performance figures for Emergency Care for the NHS in England in July 2021 showed that:

  • there were 1,431,499 attendances at major Emergency Departments – the second highest on record
  • 67.7% of patients waited less than four hours from arrival to admission, transfer, or discharge in Type 1 EDs – the lowest percentage on record
  • the number of patients waiting more than four hours after a decision to admit them stood at 89,768 – this is a 30% increase compared to June 2021 (66,619) and is the third highest ever
  • the number of patients waiting more than 12 hours after a decision to admit them stood at 2,215 – by far the highest July figure on record (second highest is 451 from July 2019).

Dr Henderson said: “The NHS was in a pretty dreadful state going into the pandemic – we were seeing record waits across the board, due to insufficient resourcing – but the sheer determination of an overstretched workforce, combined with a ‘whatever it takes’ approach, got us through.

“The problems that were with us before the pandemic have not gone away. Not only do they remain but are now much worse due to the impact of Covid, as these figures make crystal clear.

“The ambulance service saw thehighest ever number of ambulance callouts for life threatening conditions in July, and we saw ‘trolley waits’ in hospitals go up by 30% on the previous month. This means there have been delays offloading ambulances and patients have experienced long waits to be seen and moved to a bed if they need admission.

“Emergency Departments are very, very busy.

“There has also been a steady rise in Covid presentations and even though numbers are still low all the infection risk concerns remain in hospitals, further depleting capacity. Staff have had no let up and are worried about what the winter will be like if this is where we are in the summer.

Demand is driven by multiple factors – difficulties accessing primary care, complications of chronic conditions, new presentations of significant illness and waiting list patients with on-going symptoms and no sign of getting their care sorted any time soon.

“NHSE recommends patients to access help via 111 but unless the system is responsive and clinically supported and other options available that advice too often defaults to go to the Emergency Department. Local health systems must ensure adequate urgent care facilities for their communities, letting Emergency Department have capacity to treat the seriously ill and injured.

“The other side of this is problems with supply – we do not have enough staff, beds, or equipment. There is still no plan for social care, which has a huge impact on the NHS. These have been issues for some time, but on top of this is the growing waiting list for elective care, staff absence due to a combination of leave and necessary self-isolation, and an even lower bed capacity due to infection prevention control measures.

“We fear for what winter may hold; we know it will be worse than now but a heavy flu season, another potential Covid surge and an understandable desire not to cancel elective care this winter could cripple us and put patient safety at risk.

“NHS Trusts must do all that they can to wring out every drop of capacity ahead of winter and the Department of Health and Social Care must extend ‘discharge to assess’, which made a significant difference freeing up beds during the pandemic. There has been a sustained rise in the number of patients experience long stays in hospital, and this funding is critical to freeing beds and maintaining flow in hospitals.

“We also need clarity in terms of performance – we are currently in a performance vacuum with Trusts uncertain about what they need to focus on. Implementing some of the metrics proposed by the Clinical Review of Standards is vital ahead of winter. We need to operationalise the metric of a maximum of a 12 hour stay from point of arrival. This will be a small step to reducing exit block, and allow timely ambulance offloads.

“While the NHS rollout of the vaccine has been an incredible success, parliament must not take its eyes off the ball regarding the state of the NHS. This autumn’s spending review – one which has not been put out to consultation – is an opportunity for the government to further signal it’s ‘peace time’ commitment to NHS funding and help prevent the NHS from boiling over this winter.”

The situation in Scotland is also giving cause for alarm. Lothian MSP, Miles Briggs is ‘very concerned’ A&E waiting times aren’t showing signs of improvement.

Miles Briggs MSP said: “NHS Lothian is in desperate need of an injection of funds to alleviate pressure on services. 

“Years of chronic underfunding and a global pandemic has left staff on their knees, struggling to meet the increased numbers of patients attending A&E. 

“SNP Ministers must take responsibility for allowing the situation to get to this point and immediately fund NHS Lothian properly to start getting services back to normal.”

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/nhs-performs-weekly-update-of-emergency-department-activity-and-waiting-time-statistics/nhs-performs-weekly-update-of-emergency-department-activity-and-waiting-time-statistics-week-ending-1-august-2021/

RCEM: We have a serious problem in Urgent & Emergency Care

Emergency Department performance figures published by NHS England for June 2021 show the highest number of Type 1 attendances ever recorded, the worst four-hour performance for the month of June, and the highest ever number of total emergency admissions for the month of June.

The data show that in June 2021 1,436,613 patients attended Type 1 Emergency Departments, the highest ever figure since records began.

A total of 400,826 patients were admitted via Type 1 Emergency Departments, the highest ever recorded figure for the month of June.

Four-hour performance in Type 1 departments was 73.2% which is by far the lowest June percentage on record.

1,289 patients were delayed by 12-hours or more in an Emergency Department – almost double the figure of the previous month. It is also the highest ever recorded figure for the month of June, and almost triple the previous highest figure for June recorded in 2019.

Dr Katherine Henderson, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “We have a serious problem in urgent and emergency care. We are deeply concerned. We are facing record breaking figures in the high summer. We can only begin to imagine what this winter may bring.

“We are facing record breaking attendances with a tired workforce and fewer beds; it is seriously challenging. Busy departments are a threat to patient safety, it increases the chance of crowding and corridor care, this risk is significantly increased if covid and non-covid patients are sharing the space for long periods of time.

“We ask that there is a transparent discussion about how the whole of the health service deals with the current levels of demand. Emergency care does not happen in a vacuum but is often the canary of the system. Managing demand in Primary care, the elective backlog and what is happening at the front doors of hospitals is all connected and there is urgent need for a plan that balances these needs in a way everyone can understand.

“The data show what is happening on the ground, and it is likely that things will worsen in the coming months, especially as we enter the winter. The government must realize there is a looming crisis and take swift and urgent action – this is critical ahead of Winter.

“Hospitals can only do all they can to boost capacity, in the face of serious resourcing constraints. And we would ask patients to only attend Emergency Department if they need urgent and emergency care, and seek alternative care, like from their GP or NHS 111, if they have a minor injury or mild condition.

“Despite now being in the middle of summer, our Summer to Recover: Winter-Proofing Urgent and Emergency Care for 2021 contains the necessary actions the government and the NHS can take ahead of Winter.

“If no action is taken, we may soon be in the middle of a crisis worse than any previous winter.”

Scotland’s Emergency Departments experience worst ever May performance

The latest data released yesterday by the Scottish Government for May 2021 show that attendances at Emergency Departments have risen significantly.

In May 2021 there were 112,563 attendances to major Emergency Departments across Scotland. This is a 12% increase compared to April 2021, a 24% increase when compared to March 2021, and a 45% increase compared to May 2020.

Following this increase, four-hour performance deteriorated, 86% of attendances to major Emergency Departments in Scotland were seen within four hours. 15,706 patients were delayed by four-hours or more in an Emergency Department, this is the highest figure since January 2020, and it is the highest figure ever recorded for the month of May. This means one in seven patients were delayed by four hours or more before being seen.

In May 2021, 393 patients spent 12 hours or more in an Emergency Department, this is double the figure for April 2021. This is the highest number of 12-hour delays for the month of May ever recorded, and it is more than double the previous highest May figure of 189 12-hour delays that was recorded in 2019.

Data also show that 1,680 patients spent eight hours or more in a major Emergency Department, this is an increase of nearly 50% compared to April 2021 and it is the highest figure ever recorded for the month of May.

Dr John Thomson, Vice President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “The data is deeply concerning and very much reflects what is happening on the ground. Departments are busier than ever, especially for the summer period with some record-breaking figures for the month of May, and it is becoming increasingly challenging.

“These figures come at a time when reports suggest Scotland has the highest covid infection rate in Europe. We are battling community admissions, elective care patients seeking treatment, as well as increasing covid patients attending our departments, all within the context of reduced bed-stock.

“Departments are filled with patients, some who may have covid, waiting to be seen. While long-stays alone can put patient safety at risk. This risk is increased as some patients could contract the disease in a busy Emergency Department.

“The College’s recent Emergency Medicine workforce census in Scotland revealed an Emergency Medicine workforce that was not adequately staffed to deliver the highest quality patient care in Emergency Departments in Scotland.

We have shortages across the board, but particularly among consultants and senior decision-making clinicians. These shortages are currently exacerbated by the soaring covid infection rate, meaning there are a large number of absent NHS staff due to covid in Scotland.

“We are doing all we can to maintain flow and maximise patient safety, but the pressures are increasingly intense and are faced by the existing but short-staffed workforce that are facing continued burnout and exhaustion.

“The data show the growing demand for urgent and emergency care, Emergency Departments are where people turn to for treatment when there is nowhere else to go, so they must be adequately staffed with trained Emergency Medicine staff, properly funded, and equipped with enough capacity and resources to cope with severe demand.”

“We urgently need the Scottish Government to support the urgent and emergency care system to cope with these pressures.”

Two NHS Grampian hospitals have announced this week that they are at capacity as Covid cases rise.

Scotland was expected to move to level zero on 19 July, with remaining legal restrictions lifted on 9 August, but First Minister Nicola Sturgeon conceded yesterday that th planned dates are not “set in stone”.

She will be holding a media briefing at lunchtime today:

The Right Care in the Right Place

A&E always there for those who need it

The way people access A&E services is changing to keep patients and NHS Scotland safe this winter – making sure everyone gets the right care in the right place.

Local A&E departments remain open for those who have a life-threatening emergency. 

However, to ensure patients have the fastest access to the treatment they need, anyone with a non-life threatening condition who would usually go to A&E should now call NHS 24 on 111 first, day or night, to be directed to the right NHS service. 

If A&E is the most appropriate place to provide the right care, patients will either be directly referred to A&E by NHS 24 or a telephone or video consultation with a senior clinical decision maker. 

The remote consultation approach is designed to avoid unnecessary waits in crowded waiting areas and offer care much closer to home whenever possible. If senior clinical decision makers determine the patient needs to go to A&E, they may be offered an appointment to attend, and the team will know to expect them so they can be seen directly at that time.

NHS 24 on 111 is also there for those who need urgent medical attention but can’t wait for their GP practice or dentist to re-open.  

Those with life-threatening conditions including suspected heart attacks or strokes, severe breathing difficulties, severe bleeding, or severe injury should continue to go straight to A&E or call 999.

This new way of delivering urgent care –  which is being supported by a £20 million funding package – has been designed to help people get the right care in the right place this winter, at time when there is increased pressure on NHS services.

From December, the public are asked to:

  • use the NHS inform website to access advice on common symptoms, guidance for self-help and where to go if further medical care is needed
  • contact their local GP practice during the day for an appointment or over-the-phone advice
  • call 111 day or night when they think they need A&E but it is not life-threatening
  • call 111 and select the Mental Health Hub to access mental health advice and guidance or call the Breathing Space telephone helpline on 0800 83 85 87
  • call 111 or use NHS inform out of hours when they are too ill to wait for their GP practice to open, or for worsening symptoms of COVID-19
  • use NHSinform.scot to access the location of their local minor injuries unit for non-life threatening but painful injuries such as a deep cut, a broken or sprained ankle or a painful burn injury

Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said:

“The NHS is always there for you. However, for many of us, A&E is not the right place for the care we need. That is why we are making it easier to get the right care in the right place. From December, if you think you need to go to A&E for care that is not life-threatening, the NHS 24 telephone service on 111 will be available day and night to direct you to the care you need.

“Your GP Practice is also always there for you and can be contacted for urgent but non-life threatening conditions. However, in an emergency, you should continue to call 999 or go to your nearest A&E department.

“By doing so, we will continue to help our doctors and nurses through this pandemic, and ensure A&E provides the fastest and most appropriate care for people when they really need it. Help us keep you and our NHS safe by making the right call at the right time to access the right care in the right place for you and your family.”

More information on the Redesign of Urgent Care Programme is available online.

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