The City of Edinburgh Council is encouraging its housing tenants to take part in a housing rent consultation. This annual consultation helps influence how the Council spends the money it raises from rental income.
The cost-of-living crisis is also impacting on our costs to run housing services. It is now more expensive to ensure our Council homes meet statutory energy efficiency standards and to build new affordable homes.
Over the next eight weeks we’re seeking tenants’ views on their priorities on how we spend the rent money we collect, what their views are on rent increases, and the financial challenges they face.
We recognise that this year will be particularly challenging for all residents with rising inflation, spiralling prices, and the wider cost-of-living crisis.
However, costs of providing landlord and housing services are increasing, and tenants previously told us they want us to invest in homes to make them more energy efficient and that they need more affordable homes. We have frozen rents for two years, now we need to know what tenants think about what we do next year.
The Scottish Government has recently announced that council rents will remain frozen across Scotland until at least March 2023. At this stage it is unclear whether this will be extended beyond the spring.
Depending on the outcome of this we will consider options for a rent increase in 2023-24. However, any change in rents must take into consideration tenant’s views and input.
We would use any increase in rent to invest in homes to make them more energy efficient and help tenants save money, as well as improving the landlord service that we provide.
We are looking forward to hearing from our tenants on housing and how the Council can further support them through the cost-of-living crisis.
Councillor Jane Meagher, Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work Convener, said: “Tenants and their views are at the heart of our housing priorities and goals. With the current cost-of living-crisis and rising economic uncertainty, it is more important than ever that our tenants have a say in how the Council goes forward with housing.
“I hope that this year’s consultation will allow the Council an informative and insightful view into how tenants would like rental income spent.
“We want to make sure rents are affordable for tenants whilst also being able to sustainably invest in the standard and quality of council homes for the future.
“I would urge all council tenants to participate in the consultation and make their voices heard.”
The Prime Minister has decided to proclaim an additional bank holiday to mark the Coronation of His Majesty King Charles III next year. The bank holiday will fall on Monday 8 May, following the Coronation on Saturday 6 May.
In line with the bank holiday to mark Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II’s Coronation in 1953, this will be an opportunity for families and communities across the country to come together to celebrate.
The bank holiday will take place across the United Kingdom.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The Coronation of a new monarch is a unique moment for our country. In recognition of this historic occasion, I am pleased to announce an additional bank holiday for the whole United Kingdom next year.
“I look forward to seeing people come together to celebrate and pay tribute to King Charles III by taking part in local and national events across the country in his honour.”
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Oliver Dowden said: “The Coronation combines the sacred and the solemn but it is also celebratory.”
“This bank holiday will once again give people across the United Kingdom the opportunity to come together as families and communities to welcome His Majesty to the throne as we mark this important day in our nation’s long history.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “The Coronation will be an historic moment for Scotland, and the Scottish Government wants to give as many people as possible the opportunity to join the celebrations.
“Scotland will want to send its best wishes to His Majesty, King Charles III, and The Queen Consort.”
The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service received 1,025 calls during an eight-hour period this Bonfire Night with Operations Control staff mobilising crews to 356 bonfires.
The 5 November is typically one of the busiest nights of the year for firefighters.
Five attacks on crews have been recorded, however no injuries have been reported at this time.
Assistant Chief Officer David Farries is director of service delivery for the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service. He said: “It’s been another busy and challenging evening for our crews and Operations Control staff around Scotland and I thank them for their dedication.
“We are disappointed to report five attacks on our firefighters. In the run up to Bonfire Night, we had spoken out about this kind of unacceptable behaviour by a small minority which sadly happens year after year.
“Our staff should be able to carry out their role without being attacked and it is disappointing that people have tried to hurt firefighters and have damaged our appliances and equipment.
“Crews only attend bonfire related incidents when people contact us about concerns over public safety and we extinguish fires that are unsafe.
“We put a huge amount of planning and preparation into this evening with local partners and other emergency services as we work together to protect communities, which is always our top priority.”
Police Scotland’s Public Order trained officers supported local policing colleagues in what proved to be a challenging Bonfire Night for emergency services.
In total, 483 calls were received relating to fireworks offences night. This is a reduction on the 581 incidents recorded the previous year and reflects the positive downward trend in crimes that have occurred over the past five years. Nevertheless, there were still a number of significant crimes arising over the course of the evening.
Twelve people were arrested, and a further 15 were dispersed from Dispersal Zones. Further inquiry to identify more suspects will be taking place over the coming days and weeks.
The majority of serious incidents took place in Edinburgh, where members of the public, firefighters and police officers were all targeted by youths in possession of fireworks.
During a call-out to an illegal bonfire at Langside Street, Clydebank, however, members of the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service were attacked by twenty youths using fireworks. Police Public Order Officers attended and the group dispersed. One police vehicle sustained very minor damage and one male was arrested for assault and culpable and reckless conduct.
Just before 7pm, approximately 100 youths threw fireworks at members of the public and vehicles at Marischal Road in Niddrie. Public Order Officers attended to support local policing teams and were also targeted. A fire engine that was in attendance sustained a smashed window as a result of the disorder, though, thankfully, no one was injured.
While on patrol at around 7.35pm on Ferry Road Drive, Edinburgh, officers were attacked by a number of individuals throwing bricks at their vehicle. Public Order Officers were called to the scene to support and a Public Order vehicle was subsequently damaged when a brick was thrown at the windscreen.
Further incidents in the Drylaw area were reported between 9 and 10pm when the fire service were initially attacked with fireworks while attempting to extinguish a wheelie bin fire on Ferry Road Drive, and had to withdraw.
Once again, Public Order resources were deployed to support but were subjected to threats and fireworks being thrown by a number of youths, who were also armed with scaffolding poles and a baseball bat.
Further incidents were then reported in the area, after youths began throwing fireworks at members of the public and at Drylaw Police Station. No injuries were reported and no damage was sustained to the building.
Around 8.40pm, a police vehicle was attacked with bricks in the Niddrie area resulting in a window being smashed and an officer sustaining a minor cut to their lip.
Around the same time within Sighthill, Edinburgh, local officers were within their vehicle when it was targeted by youths with bricks who smashed the vehicle’s windows. This resulted in both officers being injured. They were taken to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. One sustained a head injury that required stitches, while the other needed treatment for glass in their eye.
An hour later, within the Duddingston area, a number of police vehicles had petrol bombs thrown at them by a number of youths. There were also incidents of roads being barricaded by the suspects, which required police to attend and deal with. There were no injuries reported during these incidents.
Around the same time in Glasgow, a male was outside the OVO Hydro, and threw a flare into a crowd of people. He was detained by security staff at the scene. Following police enquiries, two people were arrested in connection with this matter.
Assistant Chief Constable Tim Mairs, Gold Commander for Operation Moonbeam said: “Our initial analysis of the incidents arising on Bonfire Night show that, for the overwhelming majority of the country, people enjoyed the occasion safely and responsibly.
“However, in some areas, particularly Edinburgh, various individuals have shown blatant disregard for the safety of the public and the emergency services and have actively targeted police officers and firefighters during the course of their duties.
“This behaviour is completely unacceptable and will not be tolerated. I want to make it abundantly clear that considerable follow-up inquiry will be conducted in relation to all of these incidents, utilising all resources at our disposal to identify those responsible and bring them to justice. Do not think that just because you evaded police on the night, that we won’t be knocking on your door in the near future.
“I would ask anyone who has information relating to the offences observed last night to contact police via 101 so we can investigate appropriately.
“What the events of last night demonstrate to me is the importance of having a robust frontline policing service that can be readily supported by national and specialist colleagues when required. Similarly, working in partnership with other emergency colleagues and local authorities is equally important to ensuring we are deploying the correct level of resource to the right areas at the right time.
“All of those who were on duty during Bonfire Night showed exceptional professionalism and dedication to protecting communities from harm during extremely difficult and challenging circumstances. I am grateful for all of their efforts.”
Environmental campaigners have been highlighting companies and groups connected to Norwegian oil giant Equinor by delivering roses in order to expose their toxic relationships with the proposed Rosebank oil field.
Campaigners yesterday delivered bunches of ‘oil’ covered roses to locations in Glasgow and Edinburgh representing some form of financial or political influence over whether the Rosebank oil field goes ahead.
These included the Norwegian consulates in both cities; the UK Government building, Barclays bank and the First Minister’s residence Bute House in Edinburgh; and Glasgow City Chambers.
+ Equinor holds a 40% stake in the Rosebank field and is majority owned by the Norwegian state. + Barclays is one of Equinor’s corporate financiers providing them with $2.46 billion of backing since 2015. + The Strathclyde Pension Fund, which runs Glasgow City Council pensions investments, holds £9million in shares in Equinor. + Nicola Sturgeon has failed so far to explicitly oppose the Rosebank field, despite objecting to the smaller Cambo development in late 2021.
Rosebank contains over 500 million barrels of oil, which if burned would produce the equivalent CO2 emissions of the 28 lowest-income countries combined. Ahead of the COP27 climate talks, the UN has warned that the world was on course for a catastrophic 2.8C of climate warming by the end of this century.
The UN report ‘The Closing Window’ demanded that emissions should fall 45% by 2030 if we are to stay within agreed climate limits.
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s Oil and Gas campaigner Freya Aitchison said: “Equinor is propped up by governments, investors and pension funds, but by drawing attention to these toxic relationships we can undermine their reputation and highlight the dangers posed by the vast Rosebank project.
“Today’s deliveries show that support for Equinor and Rosebank is all around us, and these links must be broken if this climate-wrecking development is to be stopped.
“Climate science is clear that the development of new oil and gas fields will take us even further past safe climate limits. Lending financial or political support for new fossil fuels is climate denial.
“Governments, banks and investors urgently need to redirect support away from the fossil fuel industry that is driving the death and destruction across the world and instead invest in ramping up affordable, reliable renewable energy.”
Separate analysis has shown that developing the Rosebank field will cost UK taxpayers over £100 million, due to a deliberate loophole in the UK Government’s windfall tax.
Equinor recently declared profits of £21 billion for the third quarter of 2022.
This week, Thursday 3rd November, at the Scottish Parliament Lothian MSP, Miles Briggs, sponsored a Members Debate to highlight the work of Cancer Card, a charity set up to give a single source of information to people who have been diagnosed with Cancer.
Cancer Card was founded by Jen Hardy, an Edinburgh resident who has stage 4 incurable breast cancer.
Jen was diagnosed on 18th October 2017 after having a CT scan to find out the cause of her paralysed vocal cord.
Whilst searching for more cancer support, Jen noticed there was no single place to go that listed the hundreds of different services, support providers, information channels and free gifts.
The aim of cancer card is to assist the NHS by supporting everyone affected by cancer, enabling them to directly access relevant information, services, support and products.
Cancer Card founder Jen Hardy and CEO Ian Pirrie were in the Scottish Parliament to watch the members debate on Cancer Card, describing the debate as a “proud moment” for Cancer Card.
Following the debate, Lothian MSP, Miles Briggs, said:“The significance of a cancer diagnosis on an individual’s life is immense, with the potential to render them feeling lost, frustrated, fatigued, isolated or financially disadvantaged when trying to obtain information of a non-medical, but nonetheless essential, nature.
“At a time when cancer patients and their families need the most support, it can often be difficult to find the right information at the right time, for the right person.
“That is where Cancer Card is so wonderful – it recognises the questions and support needs to reach more than just the person living with cancer – but indeed their partners, families, friends, employers and professionals.”
Cancer Card founder Jen Hardy said:“I can’t thank Miles Briggs MSP enough for securing this debate and bringing Cancer Card to the attention of the Parliament.
“It was wonderful to hear such positive support from Miles, the Cabinet Secretary Humza Yousaf, Kenneth Gibson MSP, Jackie Baillie MSP and Graham Simpson MSP, each recognising the impact of Cancer Card.”
Cancer Card Chief Executive Ian Pirrie said:“Our online support hub gives easy access to reliable, relevant information, all in one place.
“With access to local and national cancer support charities and services, our advanced search and filtering options allow users to create a bespoke search based on their individual needs.
“Cancer Card helps you find the support you need when cancer affects your life.”
Full copy of Miles Briggs’ speech :
Presiding Officer.
Can I start by thanking Members for supporting my Motion for debate today.
I’d also like to invite and highlight to Members the photocall at the bottom of the garden lobby steps at 1:35 following the debate. I hope Members will be able to join us.
Presiding Officer, One of the greatest honours of being an MSP is the opportunity it presents you to meet remarkable people.
One such person is Jen Hardy. And I’m delighted Jen has joined us today in the Public Gallery alongside Ian Pirrie the new CEO of Cancer Card.
I first met Jen back in March 2018 when she successfully campaigned alongside women with incurable breast cancer and the charity Breast Cancer Now to help deliver access to the secondary breast cancer drug – Perjeta.
Jen was diagnosed with stage 4 incurable breast cancer on the 18th October 2017 after having a CT scan to find out the cause of her paralysed vocal cord.
Whilst searching for cancer support, Jen noticed there was no single place or online resource that listed the hundreds of different services, support providers, information channels and free experiences available to people and their families living with cancer.
It was this realisation that prompted Jen (who has an IT background) to work to establish Cancer Card, to help create that single place, single online point of access for anyone affected by cancer to find the help and support they need.
Cancer Card launched in May of this year and provides a detailed index of support services available, helping individuals navigate what can often be a complicated and complex world of cancer.
It’s actually hard to believe that Cancer Card hasn’t existed until now…
I know that it is incredibly hard to have the difficult conversations with someone living with cancer about their treatment journey – and indeed the many and often personal questions a wife, husband, mother, father, sister, brother, daughter, son or friend wants to ask.
That is where Cancer Card is so wonderful – it recognises the questions and support needs to reach more than just the person living with cancer – but indeed their partners, families, friends, employers and professionals.
And is available any time of day or night when questions will be asked or answers and support sought.
It also acts as a directory with key contacts for all UK cancer charities and support services.
Presiding Officer.One in two of us will develop cancer in our lifetimes – that’s of us sitting in this Chamber right now.
In my time over the last 6 years as Co-Chair of the Parliament’s Cross-Party Group on Cancer alongside Anas Sarwar and Jackie Bailie it has been a regular ask of many charities and groups to improve access to help make support services more readily available.
The significance of a cancer diagnosis on an individual’s life is immense, with the potential to render them feeling lost, frustrated, fatigued, isolated or financially disadvantaged when trying to obtain information of a non-medical, but nonetheless essential, nature.
At a time when cancer patients and their families need the most support, it can often be difficult to find the right information at the right time, for the right person.
Cancer Card seeks to address this through an online support hub where those affected by cancer can find valuable insights from the Cancer Card community and access to local and national cancer support charities and services (including access to financial help, exercise classes, counselling, and local support networks).
The advanced search and filtering options allow users to create a bespoke search based on their individual needs.
For those who have not yet had an opportunity to see for yourself or find out more then please visit: cancercard.org.uk
Presiding Officer, I want to take this opportunity to also pay tribute and thanks to all those charities and organisations which provide information, help, and advice to people and families living with cancer. We owe these organisations a huge debt and they are making such a vital difference to people living with cancer and their families right now.
I believe Cancer Card can and will indeed elevate cancer support charities and services and help promote their invaluable offering.
There is no cost to users or charities for the services listed and indeed for local groups this presents a great opportunity to highlight what is available locally in difference parts of the country.
Presiding Officer.To close.
The Scottish Government is currently undertaking work on the new Scottish Cancer Strategy – I believe this presents an opportunity to reset and reconsider how support and advice is provided and how especially during and following the pandemic – how access has shifted online – and I hope the new strategy will embrace Cancer Card and this fresh and new approach to providing information and advice services.
Looking for something fun to do this autumn? Then make sure you head to the stylish Native Edinburgh where the inimitable Stew Bryden is set to host his debut solo showcase in the cool coffee and speakeasy Counter.
Launched on Thursday (3rd Nov) until the end of the year, this new creative collaboration will see ten striking pieces shot by Bryden – famed for fashion and celebrity portraits, and displayed in Counter by Native Edinburgh for all to enjoy.
Free to attend, the stunning exhibition launches the boutique hotel’s Artist in Residence series that seeks out programming to ignite creative imagination, with an ethos to create great places, with great people, in great areas.
At the Edge of Things is in homage to Virginia Woolf’s most experimental work, The Waves: an exploration of the trinity shared between individuality, the self and community.
An iridescent display of eclectic suits, sequin-adorned cocktail dresses and layered outerwear, the visual captures each look within its own habitat — far removed from each other and yet merged into one singular narrative.
As spoken word plucked straight from Woolf’s novel plays over a psychedelic harmony, the images and film flawlessly exudes the themes of its muse: portraying multiple stories merged into one, a unity between the self and other.
Much like fashion itself, the work(s) bear a compelling power that celebrates our limited time on earth.
Stewart Bryden gained his Hons Degree in Glasgow, Scotland before moving to New York City, working within the Chinatown based studio of world-renowned American photographer and artist Ryan Mcginley.
Now based between London, Berlin and Scotland, Stewart has gained commissions and continues to work with some of the world’s most up and coming and leading brands, publications and agencies. He’s shot for the likes of Fendi, Gucci, Max Mara, LV, and editorial clients include Wonderland, Man about town and Clash Magazine.
Olivia Immesi, Managing Director of Native Places , said:“Stewart is a true visual tastemaker and it’s such a pleasure to have him as our first Artist in Residence at Native Edinburgh.
“We’re excited to champion his work and host an exclusive celebration of creative photography here in Edinburgh.”
Stew Bryden, owner of Stewart Bryden said: “As a visual artist it’s always exciting to see your work exhibited, more so with this being my debut solo residency.
“These images and accompanying film were a true passion project and collaboration with some incredibly talented individuals, I’m very proud of the work and for Native places to approach me as their debut artist in residence is very exciting.”
Stewart Bryden’s At The Edge of Thingswill be on display in Counter at Native Edinburgh from Thursday, November 3rd until the end of the year. It’s free to attend and Counter is open seven days a week from 8am – 1am.
To enjoy a stay, book directly with Native aparthotels, by heading to:
This year ELREC are celebrating Book Week Scotland by organising an event, reading and sharing short stories, including some around moving and migration.
Come and join us on Saturday, 19 November and read the story of your own, or listen to the others. Maybe you get into the spirit of reading and you want to buy some books So, a gift card to help you buying them is on us thank to a grant from #ScottishBookTrust
Places are limited and early booking is encouraged to avoid disappointment. Please reserve your free ticket via this link:
The new Meadowbank Sports Centre was officially opened at a special ceremony yesterday (Friday 4 November).
The new £47m centre is a state-of-the-art community sports facility built on the site of the original Meadowbank, which closed in December 2017.
The new Meadowbank opened its doors to the public in July this year and features a wide range of enhanced facilities and will support physical activity, sport, health and well-being in Edinburgh for generations to come.
The new venue supports accessible participation and has improved indoor facilities with two multi-sport halls with seating, a gym and three large fitness studios.
In recognising the legacy and heritage of the old Meadowbank and its 50+ years of sporting history a Wall of Honour has been unveiled in the atrium featuring over 45 names.
The wall honours people who have made significant contributions to Meadowbank’s past and its legacy as a sport and community venue. The honourees have been nominated by the public in four categories: Competitive Achievements, Community Service, Professional Service and Special Contribution.
Inductees include sport heroes Chris Hoy, Lynsey Sharp, Allan Wells and Jake Wightman and sport coaches such as gymnastic coach Maggie Bissett and athletics coach Bill Walker.
Cllr Day was joined by Scott Haldane from Edinburgh Leisure and Mel Young from sportscotland to welcome partners, elected members and representatives from sport governing bodies and sports clubs and Wall of Honour inductees.
To coincide with the official opening, Edinburgh Leisure will be celebrating with an open weekend at the centre with free activities available from Friday 4 until Sunday 6 November 2022.
Over the weekend, there will be children’s coaching, gym, fitness classes, racquet sports, and the running track and athletics area will be available for everyone to come and try for free.
Council Leader, Cammy Day, said: I’m delighted that with our partners we have been able to provide this fantastic facility which will offer year-round opportunities for both adults and young people to take part in sport.
“We are committed to encouraging and enabling everyone to become more physically active and enjoy the associated benefits. It’s important for sport to be as accessible as possible for our residents and our investment in fit-for-purpose sports facilities is helping to ensure that as many people as possible can get involved in sport throughout the year.
“The Wall of Honour has been a great way for our citizens to pay a lasting tribute to the Meadowbank legacy and to some outstanding individuals who have made a positive impact on sport in the city and gained national and international recognition for Edinburgh.
“More names will be added to the wall in the future as we continue to honour those who inspire and deserve to be recognised and celebrated for years to come.”
June Peebles, CEO of Edinburgh Leisure said: “The team at Meadowbank has enjoyed welcoming customers, old and new to this amazing new facility since we opened our doors on 19 July and the reaction from customers has been very positive.
“The centre has a large variety of activities on offer, and we have been developing the activity programme in response to demand and customer feedback, ensuring the new Meadowbank Sports Centre establishes itself with a new generation.
“And to coincide with the City of Edinburgh Council’s official opening on 4 November, we are celebrating the occasion by opening the whole venue for free from Friday, 4 to Sunday, 6 November.
“There will be children’s coaching (football and multi-activity), gym, fitness glasses, racquet sports and the running track and athletics area will be available for everyone to come and find out first hand for themselves what all the fuss is about.
“I would encourage everyone to pay us a visit and join in the fun!”
Mel Young, Chair of sportscotland, said: “Meadowbank has long been at the heart of sport and physical activity in the City of Edinburgh and it’s fantastic to see that tradition continuing with the opening of this magnificent new centre.
“At sportscotland we work closely with partners like City of Edinburgh Council and Edinburgh Leisure to ensure that the facilities that we invest in are in the right place and will really meet the long term needs of the community, whether that’s an introduction to sport and physical activity, or supporting the aspirations of some of Scotland’s best athletes.
“This new, inclusive Meadowbank Sports Centre really delivers on that ambition which is why we were delighted to invest £5million of National Lottery funding through our Sports Facilities Fund to support this important project.”
Glenigan’s autumn 2022-2024 Construction Forecast indicates poor market conditions are stifling construction activity, predicting a return to growth by 2024
Glenigan, one of the construction industry’s leading insight and intelligence experts, has released its widely anticipated autumn UK Construction Industry Forecast 2023-2024.
The key takeaway from this Forecast, which focuses on the next two years (2023-2024), is that the construction industry will struggle in the face of extremely challenging economic conditions, with predicted growth in decline during 2022 (-2%) and 2023 (-2%).
However, the sunnier uplands, although far off in the distance, are starting to emerge on the horizon, with a 6% increase predicted in 2024.
The slower road to recovery
Post-pandemic project-starts recovery has lost considerable momentum during the second half of 2022. Forecast to slip back by 2% by the end of the year, and in 2023, it paints a dim picture of activity levels in the short term.
Glenigan predicts the next 24 months to be a challenging period for the construction industry, with ongoing material, labour, and energy supply chain disruption continuing to hold back activity for the foreseeable future.
These external events have resulted in rocketing inflation, rising interest rates, and stalled economic growth, affecting the pipeline of future work. This has been further compounded by the promise of higher tax, utility bills, and rising mortgage costs which has constrained consumer-related construction, including private housing, retail, and hotel and leisure.
The situation has prompted some clients, contractors and developers to pause or scale back on planned investments, further stagnating output. This was confirmed by the value of projects securing detailed planning consent during the first nine months of 2022 dropping by 5%, and main contract awards falling by 8% against the same period in 2021.
Resurgence in private residential construction
Housing market activity cooled-off in 2022, and is predicted to slow further in 2023 as developers respond to weakening market conditions.
Project-starts are forecast to drop 4% this year, with a further 5% decline next, as lower household incomes, higher mortgage rates and lack of affordable homes continues to afflict the wider housing market.
The reduction in stamp duty rates announced in the mini-Budget will provide a small benefit to first time buyers. However, the end of the government’s Help to Buy scheme has removed direct support for new builds, coupled with mortgage providers significantly raising rates in reaction to the current rate of inflation, meaning that any benefit for first time buyers will be negated for the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, the growing prospect of a stabilising economy in 2023, prompted by a changing of the guard at Number 10, and gradually improving consumer confidence over the next two years supports a forecast of a respectable 15% rise in residential project-starts during 2024.
Social housing slips back
In the public sector, the social housing project-starts prediction is less positive, forecast to slip back during 2022 and 2023, following a rapid 16% recovery in 2021 as housing associations pressed on with schemes delayed during the pandemic.
Despite improved funding, increased construction costs appear to be significantly constraining development activity, with approvals similarly falling back over the past 12 months.
Industrial Consolidation
Industrial project-starts have enjoyed a strong rebound post-pandemic, a rise which has largely been driven by logistics and light industrial projects as significant growth areas. Looking forward, the sector faces a period of consolidation during 2023 and 2024 as the recent spurt in activity inevitably slows.
Weak domestic and overseas demand is expected to temper manufacturing investment in facilities, but warehousing and logistics premises are forecast to remain a growth area. This is due largely to a long-term shift towards online retailing, resulting in continued demand for logistics space, and accounting for the majority of industrial project-starts’ 25% growth in 2022.
Retail tails-off
In the short term, however, the demand for both logistics and retail space is expected to be damped by weak retail sales as consumer confidence falls in response to higher inflation and falling earnings.
An overhang of empty retail premises, weak consumer spending, and the growth in online sales’ market share is predicted to constrain retail construction starts over the forecast period.
Despite this, investment by discount supermarkets Aldi and Lidl are set to be a bright spot within the sector over the forecast period.
Back to the office
Office starts have also bounced back sharply since 2021, increasing by 27%. The Covid-19 pandemic radically altered working trends globally as many businesses shifted to hybrid working, reducing overall floorspace requirements.
Despite this, the sector is predicted to benefit over the forecast period from a rise in refurbishment projects as tenants and landlords adapt premises to further accommodate these changing work patterns. Conversely, new build office projects are likely to be slower to recover as developers continue to assess the long-term demand for additional office accommodation.
Work, rest and delay
The squeeze on household budgets is set to curb consumers’ discretionary spending in the hospitality and leisure industries. The hospitality sector is still recovering from operational restrictions during Lockdown, as well as reduced revenues due to fewer overseas visitors.
Combined with spiking energy costs over the last 12 months, as well as a potential fall-off in domestic custom over 2023, the hospitality sector will be under considerable pressure. This is predicted to result in retrenchment, causing further delays to project-starts as asset owners wait for confidence to return.
Investment bolsters public sector
A core pillar of the Government’s UK Growth Strategy, public sector investment was set to be an important driver of construction activity over the forecast period. Funding for rail projects and regulated utilities in particular have been tipped to provide the bulk of the output over the forecast period.
However, as a new administration begins, with an ambition to balance the public finance books, planned capital funding allocation may be vulnerable, with a potential range of departmental cuts on the horizon to protect the economy against a looming recession.
Securing our energy infrastructure
Energy security will no doubt remain a national priority following the sharp rises in energy prices over the course of 2022, and an over-dependence on gas-powered electricity. This is expected to drive investment in offshore wind farms, solar PV, increasing our nuclear capacity and strengthening nascent hydrogen capture capabilities.
Building for future generations
The Government is also committed to rebuilding 500 schools over the coming decade. The latest Spending Review includes additional capital funding for the Department of Education, in a move to tackle the shortage of secondary school places. This is expected to support growth in school building projects in 2023 after a weak performance over the last year.
Healthier predictions
Positively, health sector project-starts remained high during both 2021 and 2022, with an optimistic outlook for the future as a 3.8% real-term growth rate in NHS capital funding is set to maintain project-starts at a high level over the forecast period.
Whilst starts are forecast to slip back 6% in 2023, the value of work started during 2021 and 2022 remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Commenting on the Forecast, Glenigan’s economic director Allan Wilen says, “Construction will face a challenging environment in the coming year as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to hinder the UK’s post-Covid recovery, exacerbating supply chain disruption, resulting in materials and energy shortages, and leading to cost inflation and dented market confidence.
“The pattern of UK construction activity is being reshaped by economic slowdown, but structural changes are expected to create new opportunities in warehouse & logistics, office refurbishment and new housing schemes. Going forward, it will be crucial for firms to be responsive and adaptable in order to mitigate risks in the current marketplace and exploit new opportunities as they emerge over the forecast period.”
To request a copy of Glenigan’s November 2022 Forecast click here.
To find out more about Glenigan, its expert insight and leading market analysis, click here.
So, a gift card to help you buying them is on us thank to a grant from 
