The UK Government must urgently reintroduce the furlough scheme so that Scotland can take protective measures against the omicron variant whilst protecting jobs, according to Scottish Greens MSP Lorna Slater.
The funding is needed to support workers and businesses already suffering due to a significant loss in trade and closures caused by local outbreaks, as well as allowing devolved governments to take public safety measures to stop the spread of the new strain of the virus.
Without economic support, the options available to the Scottish and Welsh governments and Northern Irish Executive are more limited.
Scottish Greens Lothian MSP Lorna Slater said:“The UK Government has taken an utterly chaotic approach to COVID, with confusing messages undermined by the Prime Minister himself failing to follow the rules. Omicron is spreading fast and the UK Government must recognise the clear risks to vulnerable people and act decisively.
“The festive period is already disrupted, with many people cancelling plans for gatherings, and hospitality businesses and communities across Lothian are struggling. People need to be supported.
“In Scotland we are taking the steps to reduce the impact of the virus. Now it’s time for the UK Government to act responsibly and do the right thing by reintroducing furlough where it is needed.”
“Self-employed people could be particularly impacted this Christmas, so it’s vital those who missed out last time are included in the scheme, and that sick pay is enhanced to make it easier for people to self-isolate.”
The terms of reference and a chair for the public inquiry into the handling of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland have been announced.
In a statement to Parliament yesterday, Deputy First Minister John Swinney confirmed that the Hon. Lady Poole QC, Senator of the College of Justice of Scotland, will chair the inquiry.
Mr Swinney also published the terms of reference for the inquiry covering 12 areas of investigation, each covering a strategic element of the handling of the pandemic, to identify lessons to be learned and recommendations as soon as practicable.
The terms of reference were informed by public engagement and are subject to a period of reflection by the chair, who will be able to suggest adjustments, which may include taking the remit of the UK-wide COVID-19 inquiry into account.
The period covered by the inquiry will be from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2022, but it will also consider pandemic planning undertaken prior to this.
The chair will now begin the process of appointing staff so the inquiry can begin considering evidence without delay.
Mr Swinney said: “Today, I am announcing the establishment of a statutory inquiry under the Inquiries Act to examine the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland.
“I am grateful to everyone who has shared their views on what the inquiry should look into, in particular bereaved families and those who have lost friends and colleagues. Their input has been key in developing the inquiry’s terms of reference.
“From my own and the First Minister’s interactions with Lady Poole, I am in no doubt that she has the necessary leadership skills, integrity and deep technical knowledge to undertake this inquiry. Her expertise in administrative and human rights law is exactly in line with our expectations of a human rights-based approach to the inquiry.
“We are committed to working with the UK Government to develop the approach to the UK-wide inquiry and expect the chair of the Scottish public inquiry to coordinate with the chair of the UK-wide inquiry.”
Lady Poole said: “I am honoured to chair this independent public inquiry examining the strategic response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland. We have all been affected by this pandemic.
“There has been a major impact on every aspect of all our lives. The death of so many as a result of COVID-19 is a tragedy, and others have suffered in many different ways.
“The inquiry will work independently to establish the facts in an open and transparent way in order to determine what lessons can be learned for the future. There is a great deal to be done in a short space of time. I will continue to give considerable thought as to how best to conduct the inquiry to ensure it fully achieves its aims, including a careful and thorough examination of the terms of reference.
“My immediate focus will be on getting the right people in place to support me and establishing the necessary systems, processes and information flows needed to allow the inquiry to function efficiently and deliver as quickly as possible. Work has already begun on this.
“It is too early to be any more specific about how the inquiry will carry out its functions, other than to say that the arrangements for providing both written and oral evidence will be set out in due course once the initial establishment phase is completed. A bespoke website will be created, to provide information and publish updates as the inquiry progresses.
“I look forward to collaborating with my counterpart on the UK COVID-19 inquiry once that inquiry is established.”
People living in Edinburgh and Lothian are being urged to seek the right medical help and to only go to A&E if it is a critical emergency.
The call comes as hospitals continue to be under immense pressure and demand for health and social care services is expected to reach unprecedented levels this winter.
Dr Tracey Gillies, Medical Director of NHS Lothian explains: “Demand for our services is already at an all-time high, putting our staff under huge pressure. Our emergency departments are extremely busy. Now, more than ever, it is vital people access the right care in the right place.”
NHS Lothian is asking anyone who feels unwell, or has a minor illness, to use NHS Inform online or visit their local pharmacy first.
Pharmacists can provide expert advice on a wide range of conditions, such as sore throats or stomach upsets. Many can also offer consultations and, if appropriate, prescribe medicines for impetigo, shingles, skin infections and for some women urinary infections.
People can also prepare by stocking up on remedies to treat common illnesses at home, check repeat prescriptions and order only what is needed in plenty time to cover the festive break.
Local GP practice teams have a wide range of health professionals who can help with routine or urgent care. There are now more ways to access this care with many able to help more quickly with phone consultations. Anyone who needs to be seen face-to-face will be given an appointment.
If people have a minor injury or think they need to attend A&E, but it is not a critical emergency, they should call 111 first, day or night. They can refer people to the right service, which could include a video call for minor injuries, or an out of hours appointment for urgent care that can’t wait.
For critical emergencies such as severe injury, a suspected heart attack or stroke, severe breathing difficulties or bleeding always call 999 or attend the nearest A&E.
With COVID-19 still among us, it is also vital that people test themselves regularly at home for COVID-19, if they don’t have any symptoms.
Kits can be picked up at lots of high street pharmacies and can also be ordered online from NHS Inform.
Picture – Chris Watt @chriswattphotography
Dona Milne, Director of Public Health and Health Policy, NHS Lothian said: “We want everyone to stay safe and well and to be able to enjoy the festive season with their loved ones. People don’t always have COVID symptoms but can still pass it on. That’s why it’s important to test at home twice weekly and each time before socialising with others.”
Amid concern about the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of the COVID virus which is much more easily passed from person to person, Ms Milne urged everyone to follow the latest Scottish Government guidance and be extra careful:
Ms Milne added: “There are a few steps you can take to stay safe. Please do a test before you meet up with people and try to meet in smaller groups of no more than three households.
“If you are indoors, make sure there is ventilation – just opening a window a little makes a big difference. And following the guidance on wearing masks, hand-washing and social distancing is hopefully second nature by now, so we thank the public for continuing to follow the rules.”
The main symptoms of COVID-19 include a high temperature, a new cough that lasts for more than an hour or three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours, or a loss or change to smell and taste.
Anyone who develops any one of these symptoms, no matter how mild, should book a PCR test online via NHS Inform and self-isolate until they get the test result. Self-testing is not appropriate for people who have these symptoms.
For more information about how to access the right care in the right place and stay safe this winter please visit: services.nhslothian.scot/rightcare
Edinburgh School Uniform Bank has today been named as a ‘Point of Light’.
Established by The Prime Minister’s office, the daily Points of Light award recognises outstanding individual volunteers – people who are making a change in their community.
Julia Grindley leads the ‘Edinburgh School Uniform Bank’, which distributes school uniforms and other essential items to families in the city who are facing financial hardship.
Edinburgh School Uniform Bank is entirely voluntary run and was set up in response to reports that school children were asking Santa for basic school uniform items and underwear for Christmas.
Julia and other volunteers collect donations of money and clothes and put together “Back to School” packs for children from families in need.
Julia has played a key role in keeping the service open for families while working with donors, volunteers and partners to make sure that every child and young person in Edinburgh has a school uniform.
Julia said:“We are honoured to receive this recognition of the work of Edinburgh School Uniform Bank.
“Our team works so hard to give children the best chances in life and to make sure that everyone can go to school feeling comfortable, confident, and fitting in with their peers. We bring together the whole community to support families who are facing tough challenges, and our thanks go to everyone who contributes to this effort.”
Over 3,000 people will be supported by Festive Friends this year
A record £100,000 has been committed to this year’s campaign
More community trusts and SPFL clubs than ever involved (41)
This year’s campaign will see the continuation of last year’s doorstep visits to people who are at risk of social isolation
Some clubs will host festive events again for the first time since last year
Edinburgh City, Hibernian and Heart of Midlothian football clubs are bringing Christmas cheer to those that need it most this year by taking part in the biggest ever Festive Friends programme during the holiday season.
Festive Friends is a brilliant opportunity for clubs to give back to their local communities.
The programme is now in its sixth year, with 41 SPFL clubs taking part in the campaign this year.
The campaign has the largest fund ever this year, a total of £100,000, which means the SPFL Trust will be able to more than DOUBLE the number of people clubs are able to support.
As such, the programme is expected to support over 3,000 people this year.
It’s been a tough few years for everyone due to Covid-19, but of course it has been especially difficult for the elderly who are at higher risk of social isolation.
Festive Friends brings Christmas cheer and companionship to elderly people who are socially isolated and at risk of being alone during the festive season.
Almost 4,000 people have enjoyed an event in the last five years and last year’s new-look initiative, when it was not possible to hold events due to physical distancing rules, was also a huge success with over 2,800 people receiving Christmas hampers in doorstep visits.
Hampers contained food, snacks, essential toiletries, gifts, games and more. Some clubs even brought video messages from managers and players; others had players make personal deliveries.
This year club staff and volunteers will continue to visit participants with hampers, or welcome them to their ground to enjoy a hot Christmas lunch, fun and games, a club gift, and transport there and home.
Tommy (84), who lives in a rural part of Perthshire, received a Christmas hamper from St Johnstone Community Trust ‘Saints in the Community’ last year.
Tommy self isolated during the first national lockdown in Spring 2020. The lack of social interaction and the loss of his beloved football had taken its toll on him physically and mentally.
He was thrilled to receive a hamper which was packed with festive goodies, a memory lane activity book, and a bonus video message from first-team player Stevie May.
Tommy said: “The gift box was full of lovely stuff. I like when Saints come to visit and we can have a chat about the games. I don’t always remember all the scores, but Danny [former St Johnstone FC player – Danny Griffin] keeps me right.
“The wee activity book took me back, it’s no substitute for talking to others about the game, but it brought back nice times.”
https://youtu.be/9sK5CbHVALU
SPFL Trust CEO, Nicky Reid, said: “Festive Friends is a real highlight of the year for me and my colleagues at SPFL clubs. It’s all about good old fashioned Christmas spirit – bringing club staff and volunteers together to reach elderly people who are at risk of social isolation.
“Scottish football is trusted to support, and our recent research shows that almost 83% of people live within ten miles of a SPFL ground – because of this clubs and their associated community trusts are well positioned to effect this type of change in their communities.
“This year 41 SPFL clubs are involved making it our biggest programme yet, supported by a record breaking fund of £100,000. We look forward to supporting more elderly people than ever before, after all kindness never mattered more.”
New advert shows Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty urging public to get COVID-19 booster jab
Part of new multimedia marketing blitz as booster rollout accelerates to offer all adults in England a jab by end of the year
This comes as new milestone hit with 24 million boosters given in UK and 75% of over 50s boosted
Data shows booster is needed to protect against the Omicron variant
Chief Medical Officer for England Professor Chris Whitty is calling on the public to get a booster vaccination, in a nationwide advertising campaign launched yesterday (Tuesday 14 December) to further galvanise the booster programme.
This comes as a total of 24 million boosters and third doses have now been administered in the UK.
75% of over 50 year-olds across the UK have had their booster or third dose and over 1 million people have booked a booster vaccination appointment since the National Booking Service opened yesterday to people aged over 30 in England. The booking service will expand to all adults in England tomorrow.
The NHS in England experienced its busiest Monday ever for vaccinations this week since the rollout began in December last year when 418,000 boosters were delivered, with 185,000 of these delivered by community pharmacies.
The latest preliminary data has shown vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is substantially reduced against Omicron with just two doses, but a booster pushes protection back up to over 70%, showing how vital the top up jab is to bolster immunity.
In the advert, Professor Whitty says: “There is a new variant of COVID-19 – Omicron – which is highly infectious and spreading fast.
“Every adult in the country needs to get a COVID-19 booster vaccine.
“Boosters give you the best possible protection against the virus and should significantly reduce your risk of serious illness and hospitalisation.
“Get your COVID-19 booster vaccine to strengthen your protection. Please, get boosted now.”
Health and Social Care Secretary, Sajid Javid, said: “We know a booster jab increases protection against the Omicron variant and in our race against the virus it’s crucial everyone gets their top-up jab.
“Our heroic NHS staff and volunteers are working around the clock to speed up our vaccination programme, helping millions of people to get boosted now – so play your part, roll up your sleeves and get protected.”
Data suggests Omicron is extremely transmissible and is rapidly becoming the dominant variant as cases double every 2 to 3 days. The Chief Medical Officer is encouraging “every adult in the country” to get a booster vaccine and strengthen their protection.
The UK has the fastest booster rollout in Europe, with over 23 million people having received their boost so far, but to stay ahead in this race against the virus the booster programme is opening up to give every adult the chance to get their booster before the New Year.
To boost the booster programme the UK government and the NHS are:
Opening new vaccination sites across the country, including pop up and mobile sites
Increasing opening times of vaccination sites to 7 days a week
Asking GPs and pharmacies to do more vaccinations
Bringing in 750 Armed Forces Personnel and 41 military planners in every region to help coordinate the national effort
Council Leaders’ plea to citizens to help limit Covid spread
Council Leaders have called on the public to continue following measures to limit the spread of Covid, as new guidance to reduce a rise in Omicron infections is announced.
The appeal by Council Leader Adam McVey and Depute Leader Cammy Day follows yesterday’s update from the First Minister, which included advice to limit social interactions and for businesses to reintroduce physical distancing.
People were also urged to book vaccinations, including boosters, where eligible. The public was encouraged to test regularly and follow existing guidance around hand washing, mask wearing and ventilation too.
In the coming days the Scottish Government will issue additional guidance for businesses, which the Council will be closely assessing to provide support and advice.
Council Leader Adam McVey said:“The advice issued by the First Minister today will have made for difficult listening for many, particularly as we approach the festive season, but we know that it’s the right thing to do – particularly as transmission numbers increase across our communities.
“It’s clear that the Omicron variant of Covid is spreading rapidly, and we simply can’t hang around to see what impact this will have on services, the NHS and, of course, our own health.
“Over the coming days we’ll be carefully reviewing the public health guidance shared by the Scottish Government to assess what measures we need to take, both in our own buildings, schools and events being held in the city.
“We’ll also be considering the support we provide to businesses – since the beginning of the pandemic we’ve administered over 19,000 payments totalling over £250m to businesses – and we’re gearing up to help the Scottish Government to distribute £100m of national funding to those most affected by these most recent changes.
“We’ve come a long way since March 2020, and, collectively, have made many sacrifices to help limit the spread of this virus to protect ourselves and families and the NHS. I know it’s hard, but it’s essential that we now redouble our efforts to follow the latest guidance, and the advice already in place.
“By doing things like wearing masks, washing hands, ventilating rooms and limiting social interactions – as well as regular testing and getting vaccinated when eligible – we can protect one another and avoid being overwhelmed by this virus.”
Depute Leader Cammy Day said: “The introduction of further protections in the lead-up to Christmas is not what we had hoped for but we know it’s for all the right reasons.
“This virus is spreading exponentially and we still don’t know how badly it can affect us. There’s a lot we can do though, first and foremost getting our booster jags – I would urge everyone who’s eligible to book theirs as soon as possible.
“I know many people will be hoping to enjoy Christmas with their friends and families but it’s crucial that we take extra precautions to do so. By limiting social interactions, practising good hygiene and self-isolating where required, amongst all the other measures in place, we can hopefully enjoy a safe holiday together.”
Lord Provost Cllr Frank Ross wrote in today’s Evening News: ‘In what continues to be an unsettling time for us all I would like to send my deepest condolences to those who have lost loved ones this year and wish a speedy recovery to all who are currently battling coronavirus.
‘As we continue to find ourselves faced with uncertainty on what the upcoming months will be like we must remain proud of what we’ve achieved while we remain resilient, continuing to support our family, friends, neighbours and communities as we face the challenges that still lie ahead.
‘As Lord Provost, I continue to be proud to represent our diverse and vibrant city. Over the past year, I’ve had the privilege to meet or visit with some of the fantastic people and organisations who have gone above and beyond to support fellow citizens.
‘We were able to host small civic receptions and in September I was able to honour some of the dedicated volunteers who give their time, energy and commitment to the people of Edinburgh at the Inspiring Volunteer awards.
‘I’ve also been able to visit a number of community organisations which have been really inspiring and great examples of the marvellous community spirit and how people have pulled together to support those in need over the past year.
‘The pandemic continues to have far-reaching consequences beyond the spread of the disease and efforts to limit its transmission. As we prepare to begin 2022 be assured that the Council remains focussed on how we continue to respond, support and inform our residents.
‘We’re also doing everything we can to support businesses in light of changing guidance. With so many businesses struggling to recover from the effects of the pandemic, it’s more important than ever that we all try to shop local and support businesses in our area. Campaign activity lead by our Forever Edinburgh channels like our #ShopHereThisYear and Resident Rewards really shines a light on what’s on our doorsteps.
‘On behalf of the city I would like to thank the outstanding commitment and care demonstrated by our NHS and emergency services, the doctors, nurses, hospital staff and care workers who have kept going under the most intense pressures. My thanks also to all front line workers and council employees who have been working so hard in these challenging times to make sure our services are maintained.
‘With the emergence of this latest variant, we must continue our efforts to limit its transmission, particularly through the cold winter months. Please get vaccinated – get both your jags and, if eligible, your third, booster dose.
‘It’s also crucial that we test ourselves regularly, especially if we’re mixing with others, and, of course, carry on following the public health guidance on handwashing, face-coverings, ventilation and meeting outdoors wherever possible.
‘As we look forward to Christmas and the New Year, we all have a duty to do so responsibly with the safety of others foremost in our minds.’
Community test centres and mobile test centres are open for people with no Covid symptoms. Full details of these, and how to order home lateral flow testing kits, are available online.
The Scottish Children’s Services Coalition,an alliance of leading providers of specialist care and education to vulnerable children and young people, has raised concerns over an increase in the number of pupils identified with additional support needs (ASN) against a backdrop of declining support.
It has also voiced similar concerns over a declining number of those with ASN receiving Co-ordinated Support Plans (CSPs), the only education plans that are legal documents. This is despite a Scottish Government promise there would be no decline in the numbers of those receiving them.
The figures show that the number of pupils with additional support needs (ASN), such as autism, dyslexia and mental health problems in 2021 has reached a record high of 232,753. Of this total 58.0 per cent are boys. This represents 33.0 per cent of the pupil population, rising from 118,034 in 2012, and is a near doubling (97.2 per cent) in numbers from that year.2
The SCSC has also raised concerns at the number of those receiving a CSP.
This is a legal document, the only education plans that are legal documents, requiring services such as education, health and social work to work together to give a child or young person the support they need.
It provides some guarantees of entitlement to additional resources and legal redress, placing statutory duties on local authorities to review and ensure the provisions contained within it are being met.
Despite a Scottish Government promise that there would be no reduction in the proportion of pupils receiving them since their introduction in 2004, there has been a significant fall in the number of pupils with CSPs, from 3,448 in 2012 to 1,420 in 2021, amounting to a drop of 58.9 per cent (publicly funded primary, secondary and special schools). This is a reduction from 2.9 per cent to 0.6 per cent of those with ASN.
A spokesperson for the SCSC commented: “While it is promising that this increase tells us that more young people with ASN are being identified, it is against a worrying background of damaging cuts to services.
“Ensuring the adequate provision of educational support for children and young people with ASN is critical, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic and the damaging impact this will have on them
“We have major concerns over a lack of resources and specialist staff to support these children and young people. This clearly has an impact not only on the individuals concerned but also on their peers and teachers.
“It is vital that those with ASN get the care and support they need, which is also key if we are to genuinely close the educational attainment gap, as we know that those with ASN are disproportionately drawn from poorer neighbourhoods.
“We are also concerned that we are experiencing a decline in the use of CSPs, which are designed to support those with the most complex needs. This is despite an increase in the numbers of those requiring such support
“As we recover from COVID-19, the Scottish Government and local authorities, along with the private and third sectors, need to work together to provide the necessary resourcing and support to address the needs of these vulnerable children and young people. It must also work with local authorities to ensure that those who require a CSP get it, making parents and carers aware of their legal rights.”
The EIS has also commented on today’s publication of National Improvement Framework (NIF) data, saying that the data confirms the need for greater investment to support education recovery for Scotland’s young people.
The data released today simply confirms what the EIS has been saying for the past year, which teachers have understood instinctively – that the Covid created disruption to learning has affected all pupils to some degree but has disproportionately impacted on children from the most deprived backgrounds.
It is noticeable, also, that children with additional support needs have been impacted in a similar manner – 42% achieving Literacy levels against a national figure of 76% and in Numeracy 53% against a figure of 83%.
Given that more than 1 in 4 pupils in our mainstream schools have additional needs this is an area of significant concern, which the EIS believes the Scottish Government is failing to tackle with sufficient targeted investment.
Commenting on the data, EIS General Secretary Larry Flanagan said, “We didn’t need publication of this data to know that children from the poorest backgrounds and those with additional support needs were the ones suffering most from the pandemic.
“Schools have prioritised, quite rightly, the well-being of pupils but as we start to look at education recovery from the pattern of disrupted learning, the Scottish Government needs to up its game in terms of investment in our children’s future.
“Recent OECD research (OECD Education at a Glance 2021), for example, has shown that smaller class sizes where there are patterns of multiple deprivation or additional needs help individual pupil recovery but the Scottish Government continues to resist making any progress in this area.
“The Government’s education recovery plan was far too timid in its ambition given the scale of the impact of Covid on the most disadvantaged young people. The simple fact is that pupil recovery will be delayed and diminished if much greater resource isn’t made available to schools.”
Treasury figures published today show breakdown of the record £41 billion per year settlement for the Scottish Government
Scottish Government receives £126 per person of Barnett-based funding for every £100 per person of equivalent UK Government spending in England and Wales
Figures reaffirm UK Government’s commitment to levelling up across the whole of the UK
Figures released today by the Treasury set out how the UK Government will provide a record level of funding to the Scottish Government over the next three years – worth £41 billion a year.
The Block Grant Transparency publication provides a detailed breakdown of the funding settlements announced for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland at Spending Review 2021.
The £41 billion annual funding settlement is the largest, in real terms, since devolution more than 20 years ago. It ensures that the Scottish Government are well-funded to improve public services such as education, housing, health and social care, and will support the UK Government’s mission to level up the UK and build back better and greener from the pandemic.
In addition to Block Grant funding, the UK Government is also making direct investments in Scotland, such as committing more than £170 million through the Levelling Up Fund and the Community Ownership Fund, which will help to improve local infrastructure, regenerate town centres, and could even help to buy your local pub or community sports club.
Scotland will also benefit from cuts to Air Passenger Duty to improve connectivity and support jobs at Scottish airports.
UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Simon Clarke said:“We’re committed to ensuring Scotland receives its fair share, and the latest Spending Review has provided a record £41 billion a year to the Scottish Government.
“This is funding substantial additional spending on key public services – as set out in last week’s Scottish Budget.
“We’ve also ensured people in Scotland have been supported throughout the pandemic, and the UK Government’s schemes have supported around one in three Scottish jobs. Now we’ll continue to work with the Scottish Government as we progress our recovery.”
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said:“Funding for the Scottish Government is the highest it has ever been, at a record £41 billion a year.
“The block grant settlement comes on top of significant direct UK Government investment in Scotland. We are committed to levelling up right across the UK, and are working with the Scottish Government and local councils to improve communities the length and breadth of Scotland.
“We recently announced a £191 million boost for Scottish community projects, on top of the £1.5 billion we are investing in City Deals in Scotland.
“For almost two years, the UK Government has been focused on protecting people’s lives, livelihoods and jobs. We will continue to tackle the pandemic while building a brighter future with a strong economy for people in every part of the UK.”
At Budget 2017, the Treasury committed to publish an annual Block Grant Transparency publication after each UK Government Budget to show a breakdown of changes to the devolved administrations’ block grant funding.
This report is intended to support greater transparency and accessibility to the people of Scotland as to how the UK Government provides funding to the Scottish Government
Families on low incomes are facing a worrying winter ahead as today’s figures show inflation has hit 5.1%. The rising cost of utilities are especially challenging given they take up such a large share of low-income families’ budgets.
The Government recently announced that benefits will be uprated by 3.1% in April which will close some of the growing gap between people’s incomes and their costs. However, this does not address the immediate hardship families are experiencing this winter.
In October, the Office for Budget Responsibility projected inflation to peak at 4.4% by April but today’s 5.1% exceeds that level.
New JRF analysis based on OBR forecasts shows that should inflation be 4.4% by next April:
Around 100,000 individuals are at risk of falling into deep poverty (below 50% of median income after housing costs) due to benefit uprating being less than inflation in April
Around 7 in 10 of whom live in households that contain children
Around half live in working households
Given today’s high inflation figures, this could be an underestimate and even more individuals may be at risk of deep poverty.
The outlook is especially stark for people who are out of work and reliant on social security to make ends meet. These families have already experienced a £20-a-week cut to Universal Credit. This also comes after a decade of cuts and freezes to social security which has left the system wholly unable to provide the support millions of people need.
Katie Schmuecker, Deputy Director of Policy & Partnerships at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said:“It is deeply concerning that families on low incomes, who are already struggling to make their budgets stretch, are at risk of being pulled deeper into poverty. Prices are rising sharply and support available to people is inadequate.
“Everyone in our country should be able to afford the basics yet there is no sign of any respite on the horizon for families struggling to keep their heads above water. Too many people who are being hit by rising energy bills and increasing food prices are forced to ask themselves what essentials they will go without this winter.
“In a country like ours, social security should, at a bare minimum, enable people to meet their needs with dignity. Unless the Government urgently strengthens support, we will see more and more people being pulled deeper into poverty and debt in the months ahead. This is not only harmful but also completely avoidable.”
