Figures released by National Records of Scotland (NRS) yesterday show that a total of 23,137 deaths were registered across Scotland from December 2017 to March 2018, (winter 2017/18) compared with 20,946 in the previous winter (2016/17). It was the largest number since 23,379 deaths were registered in winter 1999/2000.
The seasonal increase in mortality – the number of ‘additional’ deaths in the winter (compared with the average for the periods before and after it) – was 4,800 for winter 2017/18. This was 2,070 more than the corresponding figure of 2,730 for winter 2016/17, and the largest such figure since 5,190 in winter 1999/2000. NRS statistics show that winter mortality can fluctuate from one year to the next, with some years seeing unusually large seasonal increases, such as the 4,060 in winter 2014/15.
There is no single cause of ‘additional’ deaths in winter. The underlying causes of most of the ‘additional’ deaths include respiratory system diseases (such as pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), circulatory system diseases (such as coronary heart disease and stroke), dementia, and Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases. Very few are caused by hypothermia and only a small proportion directly by influenza.
Commenting on these statistics, Anne Slater, Chief Executive of NRS, said: “There are always more deaths in the winter in Scotland than in any other season, but the long-term trend since the early 1950s has clearly been downward.
“However, the average value for the latest five years (which smoothes out much of the year-to-year fluctuation) is now above the level that had applied since the early 2000s.
“It is too soon to say whether there has been a change in the long-term trend: it could just be a short-term rise, like that seen roughly 20 years ago, after which the average fell for several years.”
NRS has also expanded the alcohol-specific deaths section of its website to provide figures for each year from 1979 to 1999, and the age-standardised death rates section to provide alcohol-specific death rates for those years.
Commenting on figures published by the National Records of Scotland, showing an unusually high increase in winter deaths in 2017/18, Joseph Carter, Head of British Lung Foundation Scotland, said: “Last year 35% of winter deaths occurred due to a chronic lung condition, flu or pneumonia – conditions where effective intervention at an early stage can minimise and reduce the risk of hospital admission.
“Prevention is vital in protecting the most vulnerable in our society: those with an existing lung condition, children, pregnant women and the elderly, to ensure they don’t become ill over the winter. We must make sure that those who are at greatest risk, and those who care for them, get access to the help they need, such as a flu vaccine or emergency medicine to relieve their symptoms. It could mean the difference between life and death.”
Tory health spokesman Miles Briggs MSP said: “This is a stark warning to the SNP that they must prepare the NHS properly for winter and ensure that all our elderly and vulnerable patients get the recommended flu vaccination.
“Recent winter crises have been predicted, and then compounded by the SNP’s lack of planning, lack of NHS capacity and lack of roll out of the flu vaccine.
“This year, the SNP is denying over 65s the most effective flu vaccine, which could lead to more elderly people having more incidence and more complications due to flu.
“As these worrying statistics continue to emerge, it is quite clear that the SNP cannot be trusted to run our health service.”
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