Risk of death from cancer falls by 12%

People in Scotland are less likely to die from cancer, with the risk falling by 12% over the past decade, according to new figures published today by Public Health Scotland (PHS). 

The new report, which provides the latest insights in cancer mortality in Scotland, highlights that there was a small increase in the number of deaths due to cancer, from 16,011 in 2015 to 16,352 in 2024. This is caused by Scotland’s by Scotland’s ageing population, and older people are at higher risk of cancer.  

It also shows that those who die from cancer are now older than in the past.  In 2024, 70% of all cancer deaths occurred in people aged 70 and over, up from 66% in 2015. The average age at death also increased between 2000 and 2024, rising from 71 to 74 years for males, and from 72 to 74 years for females.  

Lung, colorectal (bowel), prostate, and breast cancers together accounted for 46% of all cancer deaths. Lung cancer remained the leading cause, with 3,651 deaths in 2024, making up 22% of all cancer deaths. Most lung cancer deaths could be avoided by eliminating smoking. 

Professor David Morrison, Consultant in Public Health, Public Health Scotland, Scotland, said: “Cancer remains the most common cause of death in Scotland, but the risk has been falling over time.  

“Deaths from lung cancer have fallen by a quarter over the past 10 years, and oesophageal and bladder cancer deaths have also gone down.  We can see the huge benefits of fewer people smoking and more successful treatment of cancer in these latest figures.   

“Among women, the chances of dying from breast cancer have fallen by 11% over the last decade.  Breast screening picks up cancers at an earlier, more treatable stage and new treatment options have become available.   

“I would encourage anyone invited for cancer screening or offered HPV vaccination to take up the offers.”  

Reducing harm from tobacco by creating a smoke-free generation remains a priority for PHS, particularly given lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in Scotland.  This, together with reducing harm from alcohol, drugs and unhealthy foods, is one of the key actions outlined in our ten-year strategy, also published today, which sets out how we will work to improve Scotland’s health outcomes.  

A second cancer-focussed report published by PHS today, the Place of Death from Cancer in Scotland report, examines the place of death for people who died from cancer between 2015 and 2024. 

Of the 49,474 cancer deaths in Scotland during 2015–2024, 39% occurred in NHS hospitals, 37% occurred at home or a private address and 15% occurred in hospices. 

The Cancer Mortality in Scotland Annual Update 2024 report can be read here:

Cancer mortality in Scotland – Annual update to 2024 – Cancer mortality – Publications – Public Health Scotland

The Place of Death From Cancer in Scotland 2015 – 2024 report can be read here:  

Place of Death from Cancer in Scotland – 2015-2024 – Place of death from cancer in Scotland – Publications – Public Health Scotland

Information on cancer screening available for free through the NHS in Scotland can be found at:  Introduction to screening in Scotland | NHS inform 

More information on identifying, treating and managing cancers can be found on NHS Inform: Cancer | NHS inform 

Last year, we published a joint blog by Consultants in Public Health Medicine, Professor David Morrison, Director of the Scottish Cancer Registry and Dr Fatim Lakha, exploring the seemingly paradoxical good news within Scotland’s rising cancer statistics – and what it means for our future health and care system. 

Find out more about PHS’s ten-year strategy: Strategic vision – Together we can: our 10-year strategy to 2035 – What we do and how we work – About us – Public Health Scotland

Campaigners raise alarm over Scotland’s high stroke numbers

Responding to the latest annual Scottish Stroke Figures, the Stroke Association has expressed concern that people in Scotland are much more likely to have a stroke than those in the rest of the UK.

The latest data from Public Health Scotland suggests that the incidence rate for stroke (adjusted for age and sex) has decreased by just 2.4% since 2012/13.

John Watson, Associate Director for the Stroke Association, said: “Stroke rates in Scotland are a third higher than for the UK as a whole. We need to see much faster progress if we are to reduce the devastating personal cost of stroke and bring Scotland more in line with its neighbours.

“Worryingly, this report shows that stroke incidence amongst men has actually increased slightly. And those in the most deprived areas are almost twice as likely to be discharged from hospital with a stroke, a gap that has widened in the last year.

“However, there is good news in the report too. Stroke mortality rates continue to decline, indicating that the standard of care and treatment provided by Scotland’s stroke community is helping deliver better outcomes for stroke patients. But even here, there is still much to do.

“We need to see concerted action to address Scotland’s unacceptably high stroke numbers. The Stroke Association is urging greater awareness of and action on atrial fibrillation, a form of irregular heartbeat that greatly increases stroke risk.

“Tens of thousands of people in Scotland are unaware that they have this condition so we urge everyone to check their pulse at home. If it doesn’t feel regular, then go and speak to your GP practice and they can advise on the range of treatments that can dramatically reduce stroke risk.”

‘Significant health inequalities persist’

Latest Health Inequalities statistics published

Scotland’s Chief Statistician today announced the publication of the latest Long-term Monitoring of Health Inequalities report.

The report includes a range of indicators selected in order to monitor health inequalities over time. These indicators include: healthy life expectancy, premature mortality, all-cause mortality, baby birthweight and a range of morbidity and mortality indicators relating to alcohol, cancer, coronary heart disease and drug use. The report investigates both absolute and relative inequalities.

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have had an impact on the most recent data for most indicators included in this report. Where there has been analysis undertaken to assess the impact of the pandemic that is relevant to a specific indicator the details have been included in the corresponding chapter.

MAIN FINDINGS

With the exception of the healthy birthweight indicator, significant health inequalities persist for each indicator covered in the report.

Changes in the gap between the most and least deprived areas in Scotland

For a number of indicators, absolute inequalities (the gap between the most and least deprived areas) have narrowed over the longer term:

  • Heart attack hospital admissions (aged under 75 years) – the gap in 2020 (63.2 per 100,000 population) is the lowest it has been since 2008 (58.4 per 100,000). The reduction in the gap between 2019 and 2020 has been driven by a 7% decrease in admissions in the most deprived areas and an increase of 13% in the least deprived areas.
  • Coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths (aged 45-74 years) – the current gap is 47% lower than at the start of the time series (185.4 per 100,000 in 2020 compared to 347.3 per 100,000 in 1997). However, between 2019 and 2020 the CHD mortality rate increased in both the most and least deprived areas (by 14% and 40% respectively).
  • Alcohol-related admissions (aged under 75 years) – the gap was widest at the start of the time series in 1996 (613.0 per 100,000) and reduced to its lowest level in 2020 (322.0 per 100,000). Between 2019 and 2020 the rate of admissions decreased in both the most and least deprived areas (by 14% and 10% respectively). It is possible that this reduction is a result of hospital admissions policies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Alcohol-specific deaths (aged 45-74 years) – the gap has reduced from a peak of 184.7 per 100,000 in 2002 to 71.8 per 100,000 in 2020, the lowest in the time series.
  • Low birthweight – the absolute gap in 2020 was 3.4 percentage points, the lowest it has been since 2013 (3.2 percentage points).

The gap in healthy life expectancy for males has increased since the start of the time series, from 22.5 years in 2013-2015 to 23.7 years in 2018-2020.

The gap in premature mortality rates increased to its highest point since 2004 (680.4 per 100,000 in 2020 and 683.2 per 100,000 in 2004), although the gap remains lower than at the start of the time series (648.7 per 100,000 in 1997).

In 2020 the absolute gap in cancer deaths was the highest it’s been since 2015 at 353.7 per 100,000.

Whilst the gap for all-cause mortality (aged 15-44) reduced to its lowest level in 2013 (159.6 per 100,000), it has shown an overall increase since then and was 241.1 per 100,000 in 2020.

The gap for drug-related hospital admissions has increased overall since the start of the time series to reach a high of 696.1 per 100,000 in 2019/20 before falling slightly to 625.1 per 100,000 in 2020/21. This decrease may be due to hospital admission policies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

For the other indicators in the report, there has either been little change or long-term trends in the absolute gap are less clear:

  • Healthy life expectancy for females
  • Cancer incidence

Relative inequalities

The relative index of inequality (RII) indicates the extent to which health outcomes are worse in the most deprived areas compared to the average throughout Scotland. It is possible for absolute inequalities to improve, but relative inequalities to worsen.

There are three morbidity indicators for which the RII can reasonably be compared with one another: alcohol-related hospital admissions; heart attack hospital admissions; and cancer incidence.

Amongst these, relative inequalities in alcohol-related hospital admissions have remained highest over the longer term, though they have been decreasing. Relative inequalities in heart attack admissions have increased in recent years and cancer incidence inequalities have remained relatively stable.

Amongst the three comparable mortality indicators (CHD deaths, alcohol-specific deaths and cancer deaths), relative inequalities in both CHD and cancer deaths have increased over the long term whilst the RII in alcohol-specific deaths have shown more year to year fluctuation and are currently lower than at the start of the time series (2.02 vs 1.80). However, relative inequalities in alcohol-specific deaths remain higher than the other comparable mortality indicators.

Of the other indicators in the report, the two indicators relating to mortality (premature mortality for those aged under 75 and all-cause mortality for those aged 15-44) and healthy life expectancy for males and females have all shown increases in relative inequality over time.

Full statistical publication

Winter death figures are highest since turn of the century

Figures released by National Records of Scotland (NRS) yesterday show that a total of 23,137 deaths were registered across Scotland from December 2017 to March 2018, (winter 2017/18) compared with 20,946 in the previous winter (2016/17).  It was the largest number since 23,379 deaths were registered in winter 1999/2000.  Continue reading Winter death figures are highest since turn of the century