Weekly update … and what a week!

Monday morning seems like an age ago, and the political circus is likely to continue into next week (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE).

On Monday, the new chancellor undid pretty much every tax measure in the ex-Chancellor and soon-to-be ex-PM’s “mini”-budget. Only those already legislated for will proceed (the scrapping of the health and social care levy and the stamp duty cuts in England will still happen).

Although the PM has resigned, it still looks like the Fiscal Plan will be presented on 31st October, which is an interesting political situation given that presumably means that Jeremy Hunt will remain as Chancellor whoever wins the leadership election over the next week. But perhaps the last wee while has taught us that presuming anything is foolish!

For Scotland, the extra funding that was going to be generated by these tax measures for the Scottish Budget has now largely disappeared, with only the stamp duty reductions generating additional funding for Scotland.

This presents significant challenges for the Deputy First Minister in managing an already very stretched budget.

Economic Case for Independence published

Somewhat overshadowed by events at Westminster, the Scottish Government published the third in their series of papers to set out a new case for independence on Monday. This paper, “A stronger economy with independence” was expected to set out the economic case, covering issues such as currency, trade, and public sector finances.

We published analysis of the paper on Monday – and look out for our Guide to the Economics of Independence which we’ll be publishing soon and updating as more information is released by the Scottish Government.

Inflation goes back above 10%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published September inflation data, which showed that CPI inflation had gone back into double digits, running at 10.1%.

Underneath the headline rate, food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation is now estimated to be 13.1%. There was a slight downward pressure from motor fuels, as the prices at the pumps fall back from the peaks they reached in July.

These data still do not capture the energy price rises households are now experiencing as of 1st October, so expect there to be further increases in the rate when that data is published next month.

Interestingly (well, if you are interested in economic statistics, come on!) it may be that the change in the way the government is supporting households on energy may change the outlook for inflation. If, as is expected, the help after April is more targeted as cash transfers to those households most in need, then this will not put downward pressure on the actual price of energy.

We’ll be looking out for the OBR and Bank of England’s (3rd November) view on the pathway for inflation given these changes.

New Public Sector Finance Data published this morning (Friday)

ONS have also put out the latest public sector finances release, which contains public finance statistics (including deficit and debt) up to September 2022.

These have the first statistics on revenue generated by the Energy Profits Levy, which shows that £2.7 billion was generated from this tax in the year to date. It will be interesting to get the OBR’s independent view of the likely take from this tax over the next few years – and obviously to see if the Chancellor chooses to extend this in some way in the Fiscal Statement.

More broadly, it contains up-to-date statistics on the size of the UK National Debt. Debt has reached £2.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 98% of GDP – levels not seen since the 1960s.

This reminds us of the challenging fiscal environment, which sets the backdrop for the statement by the Chancellor in 10 days time.

No confirmation on the Scottish Government’s Emergency Budget Review 

As we write this, we have no confirmation whether the Scottish Government’s Emergency Budget Review (EBR) will go ahead next week, as previously indicated.

Remember, this review is to look at in-year (2022-23) spending to balance the budget in the face of higher than expected (at the time of the last budget) inflationary pressures, particularly in relation to the public sector pay bill.

We wrote yesterday about employability support, one of the areas that John Swinney has already indicated will be cut. A number of questions remain to be answered. and we hope the EBR will be clear in laying out the evidence considered when deciding where the axe will fall.

The response to whatever is set out by the UK Chancellor on the 31st October will come in the Scottish Government’s draft budget for 2023-24 on the 15th December. For fiscal fans, the fun is due to continue for some months yet!

Report: Ukraine six months on

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to nearly one third of Ukrainians being displaced from their homes. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more than 7.6 million Ukrainians had been displaced across Europe.

🔎 The Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) has taken a closer look at Scotland’s Homes for Ukraine Scheme, six months after it was introduced.

You can read it here: https://spice-spotlight.scot/…/displaced-ukrainians-in…/

Boyack calls for urgent support for Scotland’s arts and culture sector

Following the news about the closure of the Modern Two art gallery in Edinburgh until next year due to rising energy bills, Sarah Boyack MSP, Scottish Labour’s Spokesperson for Culture and MSP for Lothian, highlighted the wider issues the sector is facing and called on the Scottish Government to deliver urgent action.

The Scottish Labour MSP commented: “Our arts and culture organisations are on the brink of collapse – many are fighting for survival, they are struggling to cope with the perfect storm of reduced incomes, skyrocketing energy bills and inflation.

“Earlier this month, we found out that Falkirk Town Hall, the Filmhouse in Edinburgh, the Belmont in Aberdeen and the Edinburgh International Film Festival have all gone under.

“The Scottish Government reassured us that Scotland’s National Collections will remain open to the public free of charge. However, the reality on the ground tells us a very different story.

“Instead of rhetoric and empty promises, we need the Government to deliver the urgent action the arts and culture sector needs at this moment of crisis.”

In his written response to Sarah Boyack MSP, on 30th September, Culture Secretary Neil Gray said: “the National Collections are an important part of Scotland’s culture.

!”As part of setting and reviewing annual budgets for grant in aid, the Scottish Government maintains close contact with National Museums Scotland and the National Galleries of Scotland about their cost and revenue, in order to continue to ensure that their permanent collections remain open to the public free of charge.”

Record number of Scotland’s A&E patients wait over eight hours

Responding to the latest figures showing the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh sees only 40.6% of A&E patients within 4 hours, Foysol Choudhury MSP said: “The figures for patients being seen at A&E within 4 hours in Edinburgh remain alarmingly low, even before the anticipated winter crisis hits.

“The Cabinet Secretary for Health has said that ‘recovery from Covid will not happen overnight’, but we are yet to see any evidence of recovery at all. The 4-hour figures for NHS Lothian last averaged above 90% in March 2021, while the figures for Edinburgh Royal last averaged above 90% in October 2020. The trend has been downwards since then.

“Hard-working NHS staff are doing their best for patients in very difficult circumstances, but they are being let down by long-running structural failures which remain unresolved by this SNP-Green government.

“The Scottish Government needs to take urgent action now to arrest two years of decline in our health service, or risk putting patient safety in jeopardy over winter.”

The Scottish Conservatives said: “This week, A&E waiting time figures showed 1506 patients waiting more than half a day in emergency departments.

“Hardworking NHS staff are being pushed beyond their limits and patients are suffering needlessly as a result of SNP inaction.”

Mr Yousaf said: “A&E departments are working under significant pressure and, in common with other healthcare systems across the UK and globally, the pandemic continues to impact performance.

“Recovery from Covid will not happen overnight, which is why we are continuing to work with boards on a number of measures to reduce pressure this winter.”

Comparison Table: NHS Boards and Scotland

Date ↓ NHS Board Attendance % within 4 hours
09-Oct-2022 NHS Ayrshire & Arran 1,818 67.2
09-Oct-2022 NHS Borders 577 60.5
09-Oct-2022 NHS Dumfries & Galloway 956 78.6
09-Oct-2022 NHS Fife 1,328 63
09-Oct-2022 NHS Forth Valley 1,145 39.7
09-Oct-2022 NHS Grampian 1,923 62.5
09-Oct-2022 NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde 6,471 63.6
09-Oct-2022 NHS Highland 1,257 78.4
09-Oct-2022 NHS Lanarkshire 3,793 54.3
09-Oct-2022 NHS Lothian 4,488 61.7
09-Oct-2022 NHS Orkney 95 93.7
09-Oct-2022 NHS Shetland 187 92.5
09-Oct-2022 NHS Tayside 1,546 90.4
09-Oct-2022 NHS Western Isles 100 96
09-Oct-2022 NHSScotland 25,684 64.2

Sarah Boyack: Scotland’s Arts and Culture on the brink of collapse

AROUND 30 arts and culture organisations attended a Roundtable on the impact of the cost of living crisis on culture, hosted last week by Scottish Labour’s Spokesperson for Culture, Sarah Boyack MSP and shared their concerns about the future of the sector.

The roundtable was organised to better understand how dramatically increasing running costs and falling income due to overstretched households will impact on arts and culture organisations in Edinburgh and across Scotland.

From smaller, community-based organisations such as Sing in the City, Project Artlink and the Scottish Contemporary Art Network, to bigger and diverse institutions, including Scottish Ballet, Museum Galleries Scotland and Glasgow Life, the picture painted was grim and raised questions about current plans to address the unfolding crisis.

Sarah Boyack said that the organisations varied in size, budgets, challenges and needs for the future, highlighting the scale of the problem and the need for action.

The list MSP for Lothian commented: “A common theme that emerged during our roundtable is that without urgent support, many of Scotland’s Arts and Culture organisations will collapse.

“In the last fortnight, Falkirk Town Hall, the Filmhouse in Edinburgh, the Belmont in Aberdeen and the Edinburgh International Film Festival have all gone under so we need urgent action and support for the sector now.

“Despite reassurances from the Scottish Government that our National Collections will remain open to the public free of charge, we recently found out that flagship Edinburgh galleries might have to not only reduce hours but also cut on their outreach programmes funded by earned income.

Sarah Boyack continued: “The Scottish Government has a history of empty promises and soundbites over action – they’ve been warned, time and time again, about the “perfect storm” of the pandemic, declining incomes, rising energy bills and inflation.

“Year on year real terms cuts to local government have exacerbated the sustainability community based art and culture organisations and led to a loss of highly skilled staff. The Scottish Government has been warned about the long-lasting impact that this will have on the sector, with haemorrhage of talent and skills, closures and under-provision of services.

Arts and culture organisations are hugely important not only to our cultural landscape, our economy and people’s well-being and mental health, but are also spaces that people can spend time in during the cost of living crisis – for free.

“I will be writing to the Cabinet Secretary to ask about a detailed cross government plan to support our arts and culture – we need clarity and action now, not soundbites.”

Lorna Slater welcomes introduction of rent freeze and eviction protection

Lorna Slater, the Scottish Greens MSP for Lothian has welcomed the Scottish Parliament’s vote to introduce a national rent freeze and new protections from evictions.

The measures in the Bill, which was introduced by a Scottish Green Minister, Patrick Harvie MSP, was overwhelmingly passed last week. It will provide vital protections for tenants over Winter and last until at least March 2023.

These changes will help tenants across Lothian where the average monthly rent is £942, which is an increase of 41.7% since 2010.

Lorna Slater, the Scottish Green MSP for Lothian said: “I am delighted that this Bill has been passed. These are vital changes that will make a huge difference at what is a desperate time for tenants all across Scotland. 

“The measures in the Bill will provide stability and support for households and families across Lothian and beyond at a time when many are being hit by soaring costs and bills. 

“These are the most progressive set of tenants’ rights anywhere in the UK. The legislation, which will last until at least the end of March 2023, puts Scotland at the forefront of tenants rights in the UK and sets a crucial precedent for other governments to follow.

“With Greens in the Scottish Government, we are leading the change and building a fairer, greener and better future for our communities.”

Pentlands MSP Gordon Macdonald backs calls for Chancellor to go

 INDEPENDENCE THE ONLY ROUTE TO ESCAPE TORY CUTS FOR GOOD

SNP MSP Gordon Macdonald has backed calls for Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to resign or be sacked following his shambolic handling of the UK’s finances. 

It comes as the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed they offered to provide a forecast to the Chancellor to go alongside his fiscal statement, but that it was not commissioned by the UK Government.

This was despite the OBR confirming it WAS able to produce an updated forecast that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility.

And the calls to quit have intensified after Prime Minister Liz Truss refused to rule out her Government slashing benefits and cutting £18billion from public services – which threatens Scotland’s budget and our NHS – to pay for Kwarteng’s staggering incompetence in mishandling the economy.

SNP MSP Gordon Macdonald said: “The fallout from the new Truss administration’s ‘mini-budget’ has been huge, taking a wrecking ball to the UK’s finances, endangering the pension funds of millions, causing banks to withdraw mortgages and leaving millions of families in Edinburgh deep distress.

“We now learn that despite the OBR publishing their forecast to the UK Government, the Treasury will delay the publication until November 23. This is simply unacceptable.

“It’s been a disastrous first few weeks of the Truss premiership but if the rhetoric from the Conservatives is to be believed, much worse is yet to come.

“Within days of taking office, we have once again seen the devastating consequences of Scotland being shackled to this outdated, corrupt Westminster system. Mortgages, pensions and savings of the people of Edinburgh are all being badly hit – and there is no plan to fix it.

“Instead of trying to dodge accountability or, as we now know, drinking champagne with hedge fund managers on the night of his budget, the Chancellor must do the honourable thing and resign or be sacked.

“And Truss’s plan to impose a new wave of Tory austerity cuts is utterly obscene. After 12 years of Tory mismanagement and Brexit damage, the UK already had the worst levels of poverty and inequality in north west Europe.

“The UK government should be reversing the damage it has caused, not doubling down on cuts and pushing more people into poverty.

“These actions underline the need for Scotland to become an independent country – so we can escape Westminster control and get rid of the Tories for good.”

How is Devolution Changing Post-EU?

How is devolution changing post Brexit? This is the key question being asked in a major new inquiry announced yesterday.

Following its recent report on the impact of Brexit on devolution, Holyrood’s Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee has begun work to engage businesses, civic society and the wider public on this fundamental constitutional issue.

In that report, the Committee concluded that there are fundamental concerns which need to be addressed in relation to how devolution works outside the EU.

The Committee’s view is that there is a need for a much wider public debate about where power lies within the devolution settlement following the UK’s departure from the EU.  This needs to address the extent of regulatory autonomy within the UK internal market.

The Committee highlighted substantive differences between the views of the UK Government and the Scottish and Welsh Governments regarding future alignment with EU law. Differences which raise vital constitutional questions including the extent the UK can accommodate four different regulatory environments within a cohesive internal market.

Now the Committee has launched a call for views asking four key questions and they want to hear from you.

Questions include:

  • How devolution is now working following the UK’s departure from the EU including your experience of the policy-making and legislative processes;
  •  How should devolution evolve post EU exit, to meet the challenges and opportunities of the new constitutional landscape;
  • How much scope there is for regulatory divergence in areas such as environmental standards, food standards and animal welfare between each of the four parts of the UK;
  • Are there sufficient safeguards to allow regulatory divergence across the four parts of the UK in areas where there are disagreements between governments?
  • Are there sufficient safeguards to ensure an open and transparent policy-making and legislative process in determining the post-EU exit regulatory environment?
  • Is there sufficient clarity regarding the post-EU exit regulatory environment within Scotland and how it relates to the rest of the UK?

Speaking as the inquiry launched, Committee Convener Clare Adamson MSP said: “The devolution landscape has undoubtedly changed as a result of Brexit. 

“There are now significant differences between the views of the UK Government and the views of the Scottish and Welsh Governments about alignment with EU law and these differences raise fundamental questions about the way devolution works outside of the EU.

“But these questions are far from theoretical. They will have significant impacts on business, communities and lives of people throughout Scotland. This is why we have today launched an inquiry to engage with a wide range of people to try and find answers to these most difficult of questions.”

The Committee’s call for views is open until 30 November 2022.

Read more about the inquiry

Deputy Convener Donald Cameron MSP said: “In our recent report we made clear our concern about how devolution is to evolve to address the serious issues identified. Our inquiry launched today is about trying to find answers to these questions.

“We want to hear from all sectors in Scotland to try and address the issues which are facing us all.”

MSPs call for increased leadership by the Scottish Government to tackle growing demand for allotments

A Holyrood Committee has called for the Scottish Government to demonstrate increased leadership and oversight in the delivery of the Community Empowerment Act (“The Act”), as a new report exposes significant unmet demand for allotments and growing spaces across Scotland.  

Seven years after its introduction, the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee has undertaken an inquiry into the Act, examining whether it has improved the availability of allotments and reduced the barriers to accessing them. 

The report highlights the benefits that access to land for growing can have on people’s health, the environment, food security, and on communities.  

Despite positive developments since the Act came into force, the Committee found that further action is now needed if the ambitions contained in it are to be met. 

Evidence revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic had led to a further surge in demand and the emerging cost-of-living crisis is also expected to drive up the need for growing spaces even further.  

The inquiry heard that demand for allotment space is even more acute in Scotland’s cities, with the number of people on waiting lists in Edinburgh almost doubling since 2019, rising from 3,000 to 5,600 and Aberdeen’s waiting list increasing over six-fold, from 150 to 1,000 people in 5 years. 

With demand for allotments and growing space far outstripping supply, the Committee has warned that broader Scottish Government plans for developing community growing, food growth strategies and improving access to land are all being held back. 

The Committee has made several recommendations in its report for the Scottish Government, as well as proposing actions for local government.  

Recommendations to the Scottish Government include:  

  • Increasing the leadership and oversight provided by the Scottish Government to improve access to allotments and growing spaces.
  • The creation of a national partnership forum which could foster cross-sectoral collaboration, mutual support and enable local authorities to share expertise and good practice.
  • Reflecting the importance of allotments and food growing in wider strategies such as the National Planning Framework, the forthcoming Biodiversity Strategy, and the implementation of the new Good Food Nation Bill.
  • Tackling the complexity of existing rights under the Act for ‘community asset transfers’ which were created to enable the transfer of property and land to community groups.
  • The importance of land for growing food being incorporated into planning frameworks.
  • Improved clarity about how the requirement for local authorities to publish Food Growing Strategies intersects with the new requirement to produce Good Food Nation strategies.

Commenting on the report, Committee Convener Ariane Burgess MSP said: “The Community Empowerment Act recognised in 2015 how important allotments are to communities and individuals. Whilst there have been many positive developments since then, there is still a significant and increasing demand which is not being met, and access to land remains a challenge. 

“Scotland’s appetite for improved access to allotments and growing space is flourishing, in part due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also due to the rising cost-of-living and levels of food insecurity facing people across the country.  

“The benefits of allotments were made clear to the Committee by the many passionate individuals we met in our visits to sites and in the evidence we received. 

“These benefits extend from improving health and well-being to tackling social isolation, intergenerational engagement, education opportunities, carbon reduction and improved biodiversity. Nurturing communities’ and individuals’ interests in getting involved should be a priority for the government.  

“Our hope is that this report prepares the ground for real change and that the Scottish Government now demonstrate increased leadership and a renewed commitment to the Act to deliver on its own food growth and wellbeing ambitions.”

Sustained progress needed on Scotland’s National Performance Framework ambitions, says Holyrood’s Finance Committee

In a report published yesterday, the committee sets out a suite of recommendations aimed at ensuring the NPF is a “much more explicit” part of policy making.

This begins, says the committee, with the Scottish Government making clear how it will use the NPF in setting national policy, and in collaborating with local government and wider Scottish society.

The report also says Scottish Government funding decisions need to be aligned with NPF outcomes, and that greater scrutiny and accountability is required.

Finance and Public Administration Committee Convener Kenneth Gibson said: “The NPF remains an important vision of the type of place Scotland should aspire to be, but there needs to be more sustained progress towards achieving that vision.

“While there is no single solution, of key importance is positioning the NPF as the start of a ‘golden thread’ from which all other frameworks, strategies and plans flow, through to delivery on the ground.

“We recommend that the government explicitly set out how its policies will contribute to the delivery of specific NPF outcomes, their intended impact on NPF outcomes, and approaches to monitoring and evaluation.

“Similarly, government funding decisions should also be aligned with National Outcomes. From the wide range of organisations we heard from the NPF is not currently seen to drive financial decisions, nor is it a mechanism by which organisations are held to account for spending effectively.”

The report also makes recommendations for strengthening and refocussing scrutiny – including by parliamentary committees – over how organisations have regard to the NPF.